April 17, 2026 Mohawk

 ​Some thoughts.

Spots and trade offs.

Sometimes it's just as simple as admitting the favorite is just too tough for a bunch and not going against that one. That is what I see with Elbows Up tonight. Would I take 1-5 on Elbows Up? God no. But I wouldn't try to beat her either. If she jogs, she jogs. If she blows up, she blows up. Trotters do that sometimes. Good race to just watch and make more notes. I would think the happy medium is an exactor bet where you try to beat the 2nd choice out of the exactor, and play it as a box, so that if Elbows Up blows up, you do get that bigger return. Otherwise, you hope to break even being right on something else.

Race 2

2 Elbows Up  ​right now, too tough and too good for these

6 Press On Ballykeel  ​likely pocket sitter, needs a trip.

3 Feel Like A Woman​ seems to be getting slightly better, shot at 2nd

4 Kennedy Hanover good enough if she doesn't blow up,so far she does

1 Stonebridge Chips she needs to finish a lot better.

5 Acrobatic  ​form is awful. Cant use her at this point

1 Stonebridge Chips continues to try different tactics to no avail. Leave and cut. Leave out and sit. Take back. First up. It all adds up to a filly who can't finish, especially with proven winners like Elbows Up. I dont see where she wins this race. At some point they will find the sweet spot and she will come on to be viable for the exotics. I don't see that time as now.

2 Elbows Up  ​came ready to rock last time and dominated. I don't see any of these going with her if she brings what she did last time. Since she didn't seem overly stressed or used hard, I have to think she is going to be very tough to beat this time and has the fear factor in her favor to discourage any of these of going after her. She would have to make a mistake on her own. I don't see that.

3 Feel Like A Woman​ was better last time, but still only trotted in 59 and came too late to even make the ticket. With a bunch like this, 2nd money is not out of the question, but 3rd or 4th is more likely. 

4 Kennedy Hanover  ​blew up. Again. Qualified. Again. One of these days this horse will get her act together. It could be today. It could be 6 months from now. I dont think anybody really knows. The talent appears there. I'd throw her in my exactor box and if she runs, she doesn't hurt you either way. 

5 Acrobatic  ​is the one I will exclude tonight. To include something like Kennedy Hanover, you have to exclude something else and use that spot with something of value. I just see Acrobatic as going the wrong way and I don't see that car making an abrupt U-Turn here.

 6 Press On Ballykeel  ​was good last time but seems to need a trip to finish, so, Borth buried her and waited for room which finally came deep in the lane and she was up for 2nd. Now she meets an even tougher one who currently I don't think she can beat. I think she can beat the entire field to the pocket trip behind Elbows Up, and anything can happen in a race. She could take her if Elbows Up has a bad night, but she is also the type that might lose 2nd money to something coming late. I believe she will be better as the season goes on, but for tonight I rate her second best with the chance to go either way from that spot.

Race 9

2 R Halo ability is there. Needs to start clean and better.

5 Blue Rare​ J Macs choice. She is consistent and that is something.

6 Bella Chica ​not sold that she can do it again. Play against.

4 Upgrade okay for 3rd or 4th. Don't like her for the win.

3 Just Business can she trot the turns this time?

1 Misty Vodka maiden facing proven, faster winners this time.

1 Misty Vodka  is a maiden after 12 lifetime starts who tries her luck her in this series against winners.  She shows signs she is better than she has proven to this point, but still there are others who are far ahead of her in terms of speed and winning ability. She had no excuse last time when she let another pass her and trot away. I like others at this point. Lets see her get to the 58 range and then maybe she is viable for the final if she shows up again.                         

2 R Halo was handled carefully last time by JJ, and rightfully so considering her mistakes to this point. When moved and asked she picked up a clear 2nd to Elbows Up who she avoids this time. She has the clean line now so she is pretty much in the final. Time to race her this time. I will go to her on top as I'm not sold yet on the consistency of Bella Chica and really don't like much here otherwise. She has to get off the gate clean and do it a bit faster this time.

3 Just Business has the ability, but until she can trot the turns she gives away too much to win at this track since she won the maiden race by lucking into a breaker who handed her an easy win. If somehow she can find a way this time she is capable of making me eat this words. I have said it 4 times in a row now and the first 3 times she has proved me right. 

4 Upgrade  ​is not one I can back until I see some fight for the win when she is engaged. She was lucky to hold 3rd money last time when she was on the lead from a 1.01.1 middle half. She just doesn't do enough.

5 Blue Rare​ raced okay last time but overall she was disappointing in that she had 2nd money but faded down the lane. You could argue that she is rounding into form, and his consistency on her side. Both the 2 and 6 have issues with blowing up. If they both were to blow up, she could fall into the win spot here. That isn't likely, but it's not impossible either.

6 Bella Chica ​was very good last time and she was surprisingly being bet like that was a sure thing. She was 10-1 ML, but right from the get go she was being bet like a clear favorite and went off as such. When she pulled first up it was clear she was going to take down the leader, and she just kept right on going once she did that. J Mac sticks with Blue Rare here, which is curious, but even if he had taken her, I'm not sold yet on a mare that made that many breaks doing it once. I will play against her here and hope she takes a lot of money and drives my price value up on R Halo. On straight speed last week both Blue Rare and R Halo went faster than she did.

April 13, 2026 Mohawk

 Some thoughts.

To get a price, you have to accept certain things at times. This is one of those times. 

Young horses make breaks. We all know that. Some of them have immaturity issues that cause them to make mistakes that many grow out of later on. Some find that going speed makes them sore and they regress, like Just Business and Wolfpack Crown and potentially Thor B Good going forward. The equalizer to that is you get paid a premium price to bet those when they have had a period of issues, like Goldie Lux Hanover, Northern Teardrop and Pats Queen in the 3rd race. I am happy to accept those issues if the price justifies it, especially in a race where I can play them in a basket so that I only need one of them to produce. Hanging your hat on just one is tough in that your race can be over before they even start the race. I will be doing that tonight in the 3rd race.

My advice? If you are playing that race in the pick 5, take the ALL option less Love Sensation, who is a clear exclude for me. I would also be inclined to exclude Shes Got Trix, but those types have beaten me before so if you are not willing to take that chance, find a single down the line in the sequence, and two singles ever better, then just spend a few bucks more and include Shes Got Trix to stay alive.

Sometimes its also useful to handicap the handicappers when they give you clues. When they use phrases like "I really can’t trust anyone that much in here" and "I’ll take a swing with" and words like if, might, concern, and worth a look, you know there is a big chance something happens and some longshot comes in. Which one is difficult to figure, but if you play all of them less the one I have concluded is hopeless, you only have to be right about the race, not a specific horse.

Race 3 

5 Goldie Lux Hanover better manners last time, taking a stab with her

7 Pats Queen back in with maidens. She needs to start better now.

4 Northern Teardrop longshot chance with good post

8 Solo To Lexington her best is good enough. which one shows up?

1 My Classy Queen  improving, slow starts still an issue

6 Hp Fashionista  was good last time, short price this time

3 Shez Got Trix  win record is what it is.

2 Love Sensation pass on current form. 

1 My Classy Queen  is coming along.  She picked up fourth money last time, closing well and taking her overall time down. Her slow starts though continue to compromise her chances. Seeing as her boxcar odds are now likely gone, at least for this start, I will watch her here to see if she progresses to getting closer to the pack before she unleashes a stretch kick. She can certainly hit the bottom of the ticket if everything goes right.

      
2 Love Sensation leaves well enough to secure a pretty good trip most nights with these, but the lasix I thought might help her seems to have worn off or just been a mirage, as last time she backpedaled a 1.01.3 half to be well up the track. As she is currently, I have to pass.

She has been less than sensational in her short career to this point. No love from me here.

3 Shez Got Trix  brings 0 for 23 to this table tonight. Since she was last seen around here making breaks, her last 2 in a row and 3 of her last 4 racelines, she was forced to qualify. I know who wins a qualifier doesn't mean anything, as many of those the runner up isn't even being urged or interested in trying to win, still, getting beat by Bad Lil B at London in 2.06 is not good, and beating Dream For Peace last time at this track are both meaningless. What does matter is she is batting zero when trying to win real races and she makes breaks. There are enough contenders without a record of that futility that I will go against her here. If she has got those tricks, she might want to pull that rabbit out of the hat tonight. 

                     
4 Northern Teardrop is a 3yo Greenshoe filly out of a Walner mare that has a license to be hot, but showed no signs of that in the qualifier, taking to the back, following along biding her time, moved out and finishing going forward but only evenly. She made 12 starts at 2 and finished 3rd three times to show for that, along with finishing the year making breaks. She also trotted in 58.1 and that would certainly play with this bunch. She only went 2.02 in that qualifier, but she came her own back half in 59.4. From post 4 with a noted aggressive driver like Plante I would expect her to lift off early, assuming she doesn't blow up off the gate. That gives her a longshot chance in with some iffy ones in here.

                       
5 Goldie Lux Hanover  is one from my notes that showed edgy and fussiness tendencies in the post parade and in her last 3 lines made a break on the gate. Two of those in races at Mohawk, the last one in a qualifier at Flamboro. Back at Mohawk in the same qualifier as Northern Teardrop and Shes Got Trix, she was well behaved, on the gate and away well, then followed along loosely down the backside, never being asked until the last turn when JJ popped the plugs. She didn't exactly jerk forward, but she went forward briefly before fading a bit down the lane. It appears that they were more concerned about getting her a clean line than asking her to go much, so I can look the other way on a young trotter who was well back of some suspect ones. I will take a shot for a very big price and put her on top, but also knowing that I am taking several like that and any of them will do. I only need one of them. 

             
6 Hp Fashionista  was surprisingly good last time, her first life start after taking a long time and many tries to make the races. She did everything right, from a bad starting post, and looked like she was willing to leave but also willing to take back when told to do so. She went a good mile and closed well. However, that was one lifetime start and the price will be much shorter tonight with a good post. I can't make a case against her on form, but I can on value. At 5-2 or less, she is very bad value. If she beats me anyway, I will tip my cap. I will take others in a race where it's a pretty big crapshoot.

                     
7 Pats Queen has won this class, the only one in here to do that. That put her between the rock and the hard place, as she basically had one good night last year, then had more chances against this kind and didn't double up. In her return she had to ply her trade against nw2, the likes of Hercules and Charlie Cheeks, and there were many others that she is overmatched currently by. She went in 58.2 last time, back half in 57.4 on the same card that H P Fashionista went in 2 minutes. For those reasons, on the drop back to straight maidens in a smaller, soft inexperienced field, she is another price horse worth using, although I like others better for the top pick, although top pick is deceptive as I view them as a basket where I only need any or one of those. She needs to get back to starting better like she did last year.

                         
8 Solo To Lexington comes to us from the Hasty Bid connections. To date, Hasty Bid she is not. She was good enough however last year to be sent down to Kentucky to try and get some of that plentiful stakes money they give out, and she did just that, picking up 4th money in 55.2, last quarter in 26.4, with J Mac driving, and also picking up 3rd money with him driving, both at short odds. She qualified back well, finishing fast then deploying the now common two qualifier prep, but things didn't go as well the 2nd time, as she was throwing in steps as the gate picked up speed, then was okay following on the rail, but in the lane again got iffy and jumped it off, then veered sharply out of harms way to the right, only to be trotting strong again coming across the line. In watching her previous qualifier she showed nothing to suggest that she would perform poorly in the 2nd qualifier. The only thing I notice between those two is the condition of the tracks. It wasn't muddy on April 3rd, but it was wet and choppy and that could have been her issue. It was perfect the time before and so was she. As she draws the 8 hole, and comes off that troubling break, perhaps she brings a reasonable price, and that would make her useful in the basket I described earlier. They are calling for rain tonight, and if the track is off, I would like her a lot less with J Mac being more inclined to protect her in those circumstances.

Race Summary

3 - YouTube

7 Pats Queen did get back to starting better this time. On the drop back to maidens she shot to the front and made no mistakes, wiring the field and beating off the favorite when she posed a threat in the lane. Now where does she go?

8 Solo To Lexington ​was mostly good this time. Starting from the outside she secured a nice trip, aided by two early breakers, then was sitting 2nd on the turn when another challenger jumped it off, and made a bid at the winner but was not going to bag her when the pace was picking up sharply. However, to me it seemed J Mac was gathering her up, just a bit at times to keep her trotting. She has a very short stride and she is a bit up and down, and I would think racing over the Red Mile last year helped her with that soft red clay. Off this mile, she is getting bet next time, and I don't expect her to hold up. J Mac has very good hands, and he disguised her flaws this time. That can only work for so long. 

6 Hp Fashionista  ​left well and made an easy pocket to the first turn. She sat very loosely to the half and couldn't go with the top 2 when the pace picked up coming off the last turn. She didn't cave in though. Under heavy urging she held the show spot while the top 2 were off on their own. It's only two starts into her race career. She has some promise, but at this stage she is a one speed type. Time will tell.

4 Northern Teardrop ​gapped the gate badly and would have been sitting last to the half if not for the two breakers. She does seem willing enough, but she also turns her head badly and wants to run in when she is asked for speed. That cost her 3rd money here and she will need to be better about that as she races on. 

5 Goldie Lux Hanover ​paraded like she was going to be better this time, was right on the gate and leaving then took off running again. She got it back together and came on late to be 5th, right there for 3rd money. There is something there but she is now in the project stage where she needs to find a way to be raceable. 

3 Shez Got Trix  ​left well but blew up in the first turn and was only steady from there to just pass one no good one on the line. She is hard to like going forward at this point.

2 Love Sensation stayed with the 2nd rung to the fair start pole then let go. 

1 My Classy Queen  ​left well, drove well, attacked the leader and appeared that she might go by, but then interfered with herself on the turn and bore out while making an extended break. But for that miscue, she is first or second. Another day for her. Hopefully the price floats back up next time. 

Race 4 

6 My Ghost proven last year. I'll take the better price

3 Delightful Yankee  tough to go against. Very short price this time.

1 Tomboy Strong can get it done if things go her way. Price play.

4 Southwind Manhattn in deep but if one falters she can make ticket.

8 Dont Chang My Naam changing tactics give her a shot at 4th money.

5 Shock Factor pass for me.

7 Hobnob Hanover no shot for win.

2 Lifting Legend pass for tonight. Need to see a lot more.

9 Mikes Tony toss for me.

1 Tomboy Strong  was good last year and has come back to the races good this year. She won first out, had no shot next out, but she was pretty good last time, coming after the leader with the pace against her, yet she held strong in the lane, only beaten by a tripped out sharp one and a heavy favorite who came up the rail when he found room. No shame in getting 3rd that way. J Mac returns here, but both brothers are equally good and sure fire hall of famers. She will meet a proven stakes horse here and another surely on the way to that destiny. She looks as good as both but her price will be better. Shot.

                           
2 Lifting Legend is one I didn't like what I saw from him last week, and J Mac wisely picks over him here. I will watch him this time to see if he does something better. Pass for tonight.

                    
3 Delightful Yankee  has shown up and delivered twice now and gets another crack at nw2. By my calculation she can win this race and get in one more time with the age allowance, although she for sure has bigger fish to fry and I doubt they care. She is here to win and she will be a very short price, probably 2-5 but possibly lower. She has only one flaw I've seen so far, and that is a tendency to let up when she gets alone on the lead. McClure is likely well aware of that so he won't be surprised by her doing that again if she does that. Her breeding suggests that she can turn 56.4 last time into 55 flat this time if the track is dry. That likely gets the job done and she is tough to go against in a race with only two I can find that appear capable of taking her down tonight. 

            
4 Southwind Manhattn is one I have rated as finding the right trip in this class one time and winning tripped out. Tonight doesn't appear to be that night as Delightful Yankee alone looks like too much pony for her to handle. She can get a slice though depending on the trip she does get and if she is a bit better tonight. She showed leaving last time although that didn't end up working out, at least she put another tool in the toolbox.

5 Shock Factor was better than expected last time, but still no threat to the contenders. He still lost ground in the lane and I expect, at best, a similar result here. Pass for me.

6 My Ghost comes back to the races with a nice resume. She broke her maiden in 57.2 last year, and finished 2nd in the Harvest final in similar time while showing up and doing well every week. She returns now with a good post, in a soft field bar the bearcat in the making and the rail horse who showed similar potential to My Ghost last year and has raced very well so far this season. The rest don't stack up. Her qualifier was good, not spectacular, but that is all it had to be as she is proven and has nothing to prove in a prep like that. She is likely prepping for the Sire Stakes, but that is at least a month away and I see no reason not to try and race her to win tonight, hoping to make the early lead and let Delightful Yankee cover her up. Anything can happen in a race, so if she gets that trip, and Delightful Yankee waits on her, she has a minor shot to take her late for a decent price.

7 Hobnob Hanover is what she is. Nuff said. No shot. Maybe she gets 5th money again in here. I see 3 she can beat if that works out.   

                  
8 Dont Chang My Naam was out on the front last time for some reason, when it looks like that is not a good trip for her. She paid the price for that when Tomboy Strong ground her down, drifting off the rail badly in the lane and missing a cheque. Now she is even wider out, and meets some even saltier ones. Take back and come late for a slice seems more logical here. Pass on the win for me.

9 Mikes Tony ships in from London off a win, by a nose, and even if she had a good post here I would be hard pressed to pick her to make the ticket against some of these. The 9 hole makes it easy for me to toss her.  

Race Summary

4 - YouTube

6 My Ghost first thing I will say is that Louis Roy was really on his game tonight. He got the absolute most out of several tonight, and while they were live mounts, he added a length or two to that cause and that made the difference. That seemed to be the case here. She left strong, let the longshot go and then breezed by her down the backside then let the two favorites go by her. Thus sitting 3rd with little behind her to worry about and not using much energy to that point. She got to the half in 59, and while technically she had made two moves, Roy really hadn't used her at all.​ Down the lane he followed Tomboy Strong as far as he could, angled out and breezed by the two in front of her. She is just an all around, hard trying, nice racehorse. 

3 Delightful Yankee  ​didn't look as good parading this time than previously. I thought she was a touch sore behind, left hind, and she actually rolled into a brief break in stride scoring down. She did race okay, maybe even well, but she wasn't as good or good enough this time. We will have to see what she brings next time. She really had no excuse not to finish it off this time. The trip was soft and she wasn't meeting an overly tough group. 

1 Tomboy Strong ​looked really good from the first step on the track until deep stretch, when something wasn't quite right and she made a break. I think it is correctable and maybe a maintenance or shoeing issue. I would go right back to her next time and hopefully gain a better price. I like her, but 4-5 this time on her was ludicrous. 

9 Mikes Tony​ was a lot better than I expected. She left hard, was the first leader then let My Ghost have the top. With all the lead changes she was sitting 4th at the half, which was just fine as all of those were going forward and legit. It appeared that Davis was trying to flush Roy out of the 3 hole, but he wouldn't budge as he was waiting on J Mac. At the end of the day, she stayed in, and the top 3 trotted away from her. She held 4th, but noted cheque hunters Shock Factor and Hobnob Hanover were gaining on her while she was all out. A nice transition from the B tracks, but she still appears a rung or two below winning form in this class.

5 Shock Factor ​went around, had every shot at 4th money but couldn't pass an all out Mikes Tony. Nothing new here.

7 Hobnob Hanover ​got the trip to try and pick up a cheque, but couldn't get there again. Nuff said. Again. 

2 Lifting Legend ​didn't look good parading or scoring down and was never in contention for a slice even. Same old, same old. Time for a new home if you asked me.

4 Southwind Manhattn ​didn't leave, gapped out, made no move and faded down the lane. Not sure what to do with her, but she wont do here.

8 Dont Chang My Naam ​rolled into a break off the gate, was off the screen until the top of the lane and trotted home, but that is all she did.

                         

Race 7 

5 Zillennial important changes can turn him around for a price.

6 Dulces Suenos Deo​ is going to win eventually. Right back this time

3 Switch​, the type you don't like taking a short price on. 

8 Ilovemesometacos​ can get a small piece this time. Post hurts.

1 Coolcalmncollected  ​can leave. Can he finish?

4 Green Grass Grows​ needs to be a lot better this time.

7 Talbot Patriot​ still doesn't finish well enough to entice me.

2 Had To Know​ gets the better post this time. Will it help?

1 Coolcalmncollected  ​has proven to be a good leaver in his two starts since surfacing. He is also willing to follow, so he can get a good trip most nights. Now he needs to add some finishing power to the recipe. Coming back halves in 1.02, even with these suspect prospects is not a winning recipe. This is about the weakest bunch he will ever find, top to bottom. Its not out of the question that he adds that here. For a price, he is usable.

             
2 Had To Know​ wasn't much of anything last year, but now came to this circuit looking to build some momentum as he learns the game. Unfortunately, he ran headlong into the buzzsaw that is two 10 holes to start the season. I don't see him yet, but I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt this time that he can start better, keep up and possibly bag a decent slice. Lets see if he takes advantage of this better post and weak field. I have to know if he is capable before I start playing him.

3 Switch​, the ML favorite and likely lukewarm post time favorite seems to have found his groove with good leaving ability and some consistency to his effort. If he repeats his last he has a big shot. He has shown spotty gait in the past and therefore I will be watching to see what he looks like in the flesh before I make the call on his actual chances tonight. I like another anyway for value, so I'd be happy to think he blows up at short odds and makes it easier on that one to score. 

4 Green Grass Grows​ qualified well but is one I did not like when I saw him parade last time and he verified that by rolling into a break and being distanced. As the last few weeks have unfolded I am getting a bad impression of the sire Green Manalishi. He has a handful of very good ones, and then a truckload like this one. That doesn't mean some won't win, especially at this level, but they don't get much of a benefit of the doubt from me unless they prove they are trending towards being one of the better ones and not the winless hangers and non-triers I see as the bigger trend. He comes right back here, but he is another that will have to show me something different in the post parade. I'm inclined to pass on him as I write this. 

5 Zillennial is the key to this race for me. He is a 3yo who is 0 for 12 lifetime but now changes connections. New owner, new trainer, and a new driver. Roy is an upgrade on Young, but Young is perfectly fine and gave this one every shot last time but he still didn't go forward near the end of the mile last time. Roy wouldn't have gotten any more out of him then. Watching him parade before that race, he looked fine. Sound, straight, willing. He left well, and then lucked into an easy trip where the chalk took off running off the gate, the next best one made the front and then took off running on the last turn, and that left him sitting in the pocket on a leader going forward but drifting out badly to allow him up the rail without even having to steer him or stick handle. When push came to shove, he didn't finish well. I also noted he had one of those nose patches some trainers use to help them breathe. Some those can help, but mostly, it's the guys like Auciello, and most Mohawk regulars who have access to high end breathing help that fix that problem, to the extent it can be fixed. So, that is the key change here. The barn change. Roy wont hurt, of course. He is a world class driver. Can they, together, get two more seconds out of him and win this race? I think they can and I will bet on that. Back in the day, when I was training, I didn't really use that high end stuff, but I had one that I thought might need it, a bleeder who wasn't helped by lasix, so I found a way to get it, and down the lane, it gave him just enough to capitalize on a trip just like Zillenial got last time. It works. On some of them, for a while anyway. Tonight could be this horse's night. 

                           
6 Dulces Suenos Deo​ missed some time before his last start and was raced conservatively, which they do anyway most nights with him. That race was basically a paid qualifier and he delivered 900 bucks for his connections by doing what he does most nights anyway. Even by his standards, these are very soft and beatable. Of course there are 27 times in the last two years you could have made that comment and have him come up short. I will use him underneath my preferred value play here as a backup if I am wrong about that one. At almost 60k, I think its probably time they will think about winning and starting the cycle over again in nw2, a la Hobnob Hanover. 

7 Talbot Patriot​ will aim to hit for the cycle tonight if he can bag 6th place. There will come a time and place where he improves enough to win a race somewhere. Maybe here, but I doubt it. Kawartha is more likely and Grand River isn't out of the question. At this track he continues to improve in very small increments but not enough to gain my confidence. Lets see him contend to the wire for 3rd or 4th money.

8 Ilovemesometacos​ is the stablemate to the one above. He now has two flat lines in a row to his credit, which is certainly progress for him. He finished better last time and netted his first purse cheque as well as taking his overall time down to a level that does play with these. However, now he draws the 8 hole and he needs to start better anyway. I count at least 5 to his inside he isn't beating off the car unless they jump it off. I don't see him passing them all at this point, so I will rate him a shot at a better smaller slice this time. 

​Race 8 

4 Trudybird  ​call the upset. Trending well plus driver upgrade.

1 Rico Tubbs​ last was good. Big shot. Price is gone.

2 Green Nineteen  ​has to show more grit. Possible.

6 Green Moni Queen  ​bad impression in qualifier. Was good last year.

5 Sherlyn Hanover  steps up. I like others but she is promising.

7 Check Master​ class drop break. Last few show me trouble.

8 Southview Abraham  ​very hard pass for me.

3 Maggies Touch​ will have to be seen.

1 Rico Tubbs​ was solid last time, behaving, laying back, making a noticeable wide move from the back and up for 2nd and possibly could have beaten the winner if he had been closer up. These don't look any tougher, and arguably softer without the winner he avoids from last time. Some of these trot in 56, so he will have to find another second for the win spot. With his breeding and winning some stakes last year I don't see that to be a problem. Big shot. 

2 Green Nineteen  ​presents a nice program page and is certainly capable with this bunch. His issue is not doing enough down the lane even off pretty soft trips. Like all of those kind, he will find that trip one night and do just enough to score. You would think the plan this time is to blast off and let only one brush to the top, and try his luck again with a trip like that. Short odds though is not muy bueno for me here, just as it wasn't last time. Minimum 3-1 for me or else I will take my chances against him again. He has the MO of a money burner brewing. 

               
3 Maggies Touch​ returns missing 7 weeks now and no qualifier to show what she has been up to. With only 5 starts last year at 4, and 5 this year at 5, a total of 10 starts in 16 months is a troubling sign. I want to see her parade, but on paper she is a pass until she gets back on a decent rotation. 

4 Trudybird  ​is the one I will go to on top here. She has never been very reliable on the win front, but after a poor finish to last year, and a bad start to this one, she was okay last time. It seems to me like the trainer is tinkering with her, and P Mac is a good driver to deploy when you are doing that, in that he doesn't make a living anymore as a catch driver, so he is willing to bring her along. She did a little more last time, got her overall time back in range and now picks up Mark MacDonald, who is known to get more out of these types. She is 6-1 ML, and I'd be looking for closer to 8-1 and 10-1 would be even more enticing. I'll take a shot with her tonight as nothing really thrills me in this bunch. 

                            
5 Sherlyn Hanover  ​got the job done last time, beating an assortment of no good ones and professional maidens, going to the top, backing down the half, staying flat this time and holding her margin to the wire. Now she meets the ones who were already at this level, many have shown much more speed than her. I'm sure she has more, but is it enough? I don't think so yet. I will watch her this time and play others.

                         
6 Green Moni Queen  ​returns from a winter layoff. She showed decent class last year, winning twice from 8 starts, hanging out in the Grassroots and making the final, picking up slices near the end but drawing bad in her last two starts. What is not on the page is that she started out with 2 wins and a 2nd in the Grassroots then tried the Peaceful Way which might have been too ambitious. She took her 56.2 record just before that at Mohawk in a Grassroots leg then went about the same mile in the Peaceful Way but faded badly chasing Grand Circuit fillies who could trot in 53. I am on the fence with her tonight, as she has the obvious ability to go with these, but in her qualifier she cut the mile with very reasonable fractions but stopped badly down the lane and drifted out, finishing badly in 31.4 and I don't see any lasix added here. Maybe she had a bad day. Maybe the Peaceful Way experience gutted her and she is washed up. Who knows? I'd use her at a big price as Team Steacy is on a roll right now.

                  
7 Check Master​ gets a bone from the race office and moves back down to nw2. It's something they have done a lot of lately as they are short of horses and many of the ones who received that favor needed it. For this guy, I take a pass on him anyway. His previous two before his last have indicated to me that he has issues that are piling up. Three back he didn't look right and jumped right before the start. Two back he was going right by Wolfpack Crown off a sweet trip when he was very steppy, rocky, and surely jumping it off if not steadied. Until I see something moving in the other direction he doesn't play for me. Roy also picked over him, so there is that as well.

8 Southview Abraham  ​just barely got up for 5th money last time on the line. He draws the 8 hole here. Very hard pass for me.

April 11, 2026 Mohawk

 Some thoughts.

Only one race today on a big Saturday card.
Why is that?
For me it's simply a time and opportunity thing.
First and foremost, I like to be very thorough and take all the factors in.
When I did Monday's card, I didn't record all my time spent on it, but it had to be 10 hours minimum for the entire card, which was only 5 races. That includes going over the program for anything I can see in general, especially horses I don't know well or at all like shippers or returning horses off layoffs, marking videos I will have to look up and watch, looking back at my previous notes, write ups and then a complete race review, watching every horse for the entire mile to go along with a very thorough post parade viewing. That is part of having notes for next time. That's why I record the post parade and study it. It matters with all horses. Even more with just trotters and especially with young trotters. As I said on Monday, every day is another day. I said that about Charlie Cheeks and The Hitman Heart, and I was correct about that. A horse that parades good today might not look so good next time, and vice versa.
For those 10 hours, if I did all the races I would spend probably 30 minutes per race. That isn't enough for me. At my age, that isn't practical anymore, nor doable. Or desirable. Nor useful. Two hours times 5 is reasonable, and as I go forward and have a better read on most of the horses, there is less I have to do on most of the ones I know and more time I can allot to the newer ones.
I love the pacers and I don't mind the condition type horses that is most racing. But most people can figure out pacers and that means there isn't much price value to picking from them. That comes down to basically trip, class, speed and current form. After reviewing my history, I noted my best return was always on trotters, and mostly on young trotters. That is for two reasons.

It's all about homework.
It takes a lot of work to get a good read on a trotter. So many little things can set them off on the wrong track. And conversely, as I noted in my review on Monday, not being 100% thorough on a horse like Kinnder Icecube can come back to get you when they turn it right back around and you didn't put the work in to see that. It's just a time thing. That horse was the 8 horse, near the end of the card, and if you use your time to handicap every race, you waste the time you will need to do more in the races you should do that work. Also, it's just tiring and you have to manage your workload. It's as simple as that.
In brief, from the first day I ever went to the races, trotters have always been hard, variable, scary to figure out and in some ways, avoidable.
Being variable is an advantage, not a roadblock.  Wolfpack Crown, Charlie Cheeks, Just Business, these are just a few examples lately where on paper they had very good form but they were bad value for reasons I laid out in my pre race commentary after I had done some homework on them. That is homework I wouldn't have done if time and energy didn't permit.

What I don't want to do is spend all that time on a bunch of nw pacers only to have that be mostly a waste of time. Wasting time means wasting money when your time is well spent and worth something.
Good form, especially with trotters, is generally bad value. That sounds counter intuitive, but it's true.
When you start from that premise, if you agree with that, you are already ahead of the game. It's just a matter then of having the time to actualize that and find good value in those with okay form who might benefit from that, like The Hitman Heart and Hercules.
So yeah, today only one race fits my now criteria of focusing my complete energy on just young trotters, which means nw1, nw2, young trotters in series, and when the season gets going, Sire Stakes and Grand Circuit stakes. And not just at Mohawk, but all over. And that includes studying pedigrees, listening to interviews and watching qualifiers. One race on one day, but lots of prep work for races to come when days are slower like this.
On this day, one race, but 6 qualifiers to watch and review for a coming video. It adds up and you have to be smart and tactical in how you use that time.
Time management. Basically.

​Different isn't always hard. Its just different. And its not actually that hard if you are willing to do that work. Its extremely hard if you are not willing to put the time in.

Race 4

7 Dream For Peace  first start back, has some class and speed

5 Up To No Gouda ​improving but still a maiden facing winners

9 Thor B Good bad post hurts here and he meets tougher

6 P L Talladega ​looks live, but the type that gets beat here.

3 Fourth Gear​ has some upside. He will have to be seen.

2 Stardust Joe​ has some upside. looks like he needs one

1 Century Massiah good form, needs to stick with maidens

4 Thrufireandflames​ doesn't look fast enough for these 

8 Wheeler Seelster ​should be in a maiden from what I can see

10 Chip King​ hard pass for me tonight. Don't see him at all.

1 Century Massiah made a nice impression on Monday night and raced solid to be 3rd. However, he is still a maiden after 12 starts facing 3 winners in here who all look farther along and likely better horses than he is. He is good enough to make the bottom of the ticket and certainly get a slice if he gets a protected trip and comes late. Watching him for future plays but doesn't look like a winner in this field.

2 Stardust Joe​ made 7 starts at 2, all in the Grassroots races, culminating by drawing the 9 hole in the final where he really had no chance. He didn't win last year, but he showed some ability, trotting in 57 several times. Now spending his winter down South training back he ships up north and arrives with Team Henry calling the shots. In his two prepping qualifiers he is listed as not having hopples but will race with them tonight as he did all last year. He made a break in the 2nd qualifier without the hopples, so possibly they tried that but will go right back to the steadiness that they can provide here. He will have to be seen but I would think he needs one regardless.

3 Fourth Gear​ is a stablemate to Stardust Joe and arrives with him in the barn of Team Henry. He raced 8 times at 2 without winning but took a different approach than his stablemate, starting out in the Prospect series then a straight maiden, then to the Grassroots where he appeared not good enough then back to the maidens where he was marginal and began making breaks and one try in the Harvest series making a break to be shut down for the winter but retained for another season. He is by Archangel, and they can be tricky but most of them show good speed and can pop. Maybe he is one of those. He also used the two qualifier prep and showed a fast 3rd quarter in the 2nd one, finishing better than his stablemate. He trotted in 58.1 overall, but allowing for two seconds for the track that puts him at 56.1 and thus, he is possible if he goes forward off that. He will have to be seen.

4 Thrufireandflames​ is a homebred for Team Green who is 0 for 7 lifetime and his overall speed just doesn't stack up here. I would have to see a lot more from him to go with some of these. Back in a maiden with some encouraging signs he could be a play. Not tonight. He trotted in 58 and change last year. Lets see him get back towards that speed on a warmer night like we will have tonight.

                       
5 Up To No Gouda ​will certainly take some action tonight after a somewhat troubled trip last time where he left well from the outside but then was gradually shuffled back due to multiple leader changes, only to come in the stretch to just miss 2nd and look impressive doing it. He draws better here, but he also faces P L Talladega again, who he was well back of the last time they met. That one has been off 3 weeks and this guy has improved in that time, but he still has to bridge that gap as a maiden facing winners who show stakes ability. He is viable if he can use that gate speed again and get a trip where he doesn't get screwed over by trip luck.

                         
6 P L Talladega ​as noted last time he is a half brother to P L Spencer who came along nicely at 3 to become a Superfinal winner among his very good performances. Upon return from a winter layoff last time he rushed out from the 9 hole, took control and set moderate even fractions to be an easy winner. However, the overall time was slow and there was no track variant. So, he takes play here, but he is no cinch and a short price is not ideal on this type, with likely bigger fish to fry down the road. I'm inclined to try and beat him out of the win spot with something of price value.

                          
7 Dream For Peace   ​is a 3yo Muscle Mass colt who raced 5 times at 2, winning once. He is a homebred for Team Steacy who won ​that one race in a Grassroots in 56 and was 3rd in the final of that program. Like many of Steacy's he is using the two qualifier prep, just as Elbows Up did last night to winning success. He is a bit of a slow starter so he will likely have to do it off the pace and find good flow. He has a shot right off the shelf. Another with a decent shot.

           
8 Wheeler Seelster ​is in very deep tonight, facing winners with a bad post and spotty form for Team Green who will use a catch driver here as they have two in this race. I cant see him in this spot based on what he has done so far. He strikes me as a 50-1 shot looking to nab 5th money if things go his way. Better off in a straight maiden for now if you asked me.

                   
9 Thor B Good​ didn't start at 2 but came ready to race this spring. He qualified well, then was very good value in his first start, finding a soft field with a very bad favorite. He did what good horses do then. He took control and went only as much as he had to and then crushed that bunch down the lane. He was not raced of that mile, so being out of the box almost a month to race in this series, he was qualified last week to keep sharp. He once again did what was asked and sat back then came a nice back half. He does draw bad here and meets a much saltier bunch than Steinbeck and Upgrade. Possibly, he isn't pushed so hard here and comes late for 2nd or 3rd money, but he has win potential nonetheless.

10 Chip King​ is not one I can back for various reasons. He has a very suspect gait and has been babied around London in every start I have seen him, and even that didn't work last time. He has 5 wins this year in 10 starts and that has gotten him 20k, so good for him and his connections for doing that. That also means he has won his way out of a straight maiden try at this track. Add the 10 hole tonight and I have to take a hard pass on him for now. Maybe the big track will help him as he has a lot of trouble with the turns at London. We will see.

He will add the hopples here. That is interesting. 

Race Summary

4

Sometimes a race summary is more a story about the race, not the race itself and what happened during its contesting. That happened in this instance.
Sometimes you analyze a race and then a key piece changes everything. That happened in this race. Up To No Gouda was no cinch. In fact he was one of many in what appeared to be a good betting race. I thought there was value there. And then there wasn't. Up To No Gouda was an early scratch sick, and thus the 7-2 or 4-1 price I was anticipating was gone on Dream For Peace. The scratch didn't just affect the prices, although it did do that. It also meant the outside horses had different options with a key contender who was sure to leave out now out of the picture.
Dream For Peace now had the 6 hole rather than the 7 hole, which doesn't seem like much but as we know there is a very big difference in the winning percentage of those two starting spots. He also had one less leaver inside him. That meant his likely come from behind trip now became a brush to the top and goodbye to the field trip. When the other "logical" contender blew up, the race was basically over. It also improved the chances of Thor B Good when he moved in a spot and two leavers weren't there inside him anymore. One scratched, the other running early and completely out of the picture. He was a clear and easy 2nd best.
Thus, while I had the winner, and with the scratch the exactor with my top two picks, in reality I passed on the race because 2-1 on Dream For Peace was not going to play with me for value. On to the actual race.

Dream For Peace is a very impressive animal when he parades on the track. He moves well, is stout and strong, balanced and willing. He catches your eye and he did in this parade. He clearly "looked" the best, which doesn't mean he would win and be the best, but along with his resume and his current form, and without Up To No Gouda, he was likely the one. He fully delivered on that.​ I didn't expect pre race that he would leave out and control the race, but sans Gouda and Talledaga in the mix, he did exactly that and was the easiest of winners. He left out, let the pocket horse take the top, floated by him and rated the half, then trotted away from him and the field for an easy score, driving straight and true. Can he keep that up? You never know but he didn't appear stressed at all by this mile. MTB. 

Thor B Good is one you notice in the post parade. He wears a lot of gear. Both on his head, his legs and he has the trotting hopples. That seems to work for him. While he is strong and stout like Dream For Peace, he doesn't travel as smooth and I'm not sure how sound he is. He is by My Mvp and a lot of those have soundness issues. There were times in the mile I thought Drury was holding him together and/or steadying him, and after the wire he was on the run. On the last turn I thought he was being angled out to take a shot at the leader, but it appears now he runs in a bit and was given a bit of space to make that turn easier. When they straightened out he was not gaining on the leader and he turned his head a bit like he wants to run in. He was a good 2nd but the two right behind him at the wire were getting to him. I have to see him next time but I'd say he is more likely to blow up next time than go forward. He is a good leaver and he tries hard. For as long as he stays sound he is viable, but that is in question in my mind. 

Fourth Gear is one I noted with some potential upside and that he would have to be seen. He is by Archangel and I have noted that many of those have some sort of back end wonkiness that some come out of, some don't. He showed that to me in the post parade this time. Mostly though, at this point he looks fine. He left well this time, enough to gain the pocket but was relegated to 3rd when the winner got to the top. That was a good trip as he had a clear shot from there to move when he wished. He did close late when angled out, but was never near the winner and didn't do enough to beat the 2nd place finisher. The issue I have with him is that he appears to be a shade rocky when he picks up some speed and will be prone to breaks if that is the case. He will be one to watch closely every time he parades. He will elicit clues. 

Century Massiah was solid again and did enough to get 4th money in a field with an important scratch and a contender who self-destructed very early. On his own I maintain he is not win worthy with the bunch he met and is likely to meet in this series, but has ticket potential most nights with them. He can leave, he trots and is willing. He just isn't fast enough. 

Thrufireandflames went a mediocre mile throughout with these,

 trotting back in the 58 range, but I'm not sure there is much more there. That got him 5th money as he didn't break like one did and another was trying to and he beat two others who didn't perform. That appears his ceiling in this series, and I will watch for his return to the maidens, where he might be far enough along to be value in that arena. 

Wheeler Seelster lost the race for 5th money to his stablemate, but that was all he was racing for here. He is miles over his head with this bunch and looks more like a Prospect series horse than a Grassroots one going forward. He is wasting his time in this series. 

Stardust Joe is an interesting one. I recall him from last year but didn't remember much about him. Watching him parade, he reminds me of Hadley, who he is bred similarly to. He is tall, lean, narrow up front and has very long legs, too long in fact in behind. He is the type that might grow into himself, and he has some ability if and when he does that. Might be an okay 4yo mid condition horse. For now, in spite of taking unusual tote money here, he didn't do much and couldn't even go with Wheeler Seelster. Nuff said. 

Chip King got around clean and trotted under 2 minutes. That is about all I can say. He beat one horse, a breaker. He might be a very good Sarnia horse with enough speed to go there and much friendlier turns than London or Flamboro. For here, I don't see him as viable. 

P L Talladega is a bit hot in the post parade, mostly edgy and tossing his head, but seems fine going to the gate. Once he picks up speed he tries to go too fast and rolls off stride. His mother was like that as I recall. He seemed to get it back together after the gate miscue, then did it again down the backside. He tries too hard. He will likely grow out of that. Arrakis is a horse I recall that was like that young and he is still going at 14 and has been a steady warhorse. For now, good, bad, good, bad, that is what you can get on any given night with Talladega. He just needs to mature.