Seems like a 3 horse race, with trip likely deciding it. The probable chalk shows no racing on a half to this point, the other two are now locals but draw poorly. Should be a contentious race.
1 SilverDunes a 3yo Artspeak colt, makes his 4th life start, 3rd this year, and comes back this time on 7 days. He raced okay last time from the 4 hole now he draws the rail and is likely to take more support due to that factor. Last year, in his only 2yo start for money he drew the rail and left out well, ended up first over and then backed away badly as the winner was going in 56.2 and he was not ready for anything like that. It seems like if he leaves well again, lets one legit one go and can angle inside to the passing lane late, he has a fair shot.
2 StoneRoller a 4yo Well Said gelding, now making his 17th lifetime start with only one 3rd place finish to show for that. Upon returning this year he has added lasix, and in that first start with that medication he didn't do much, but kept up and finished in 28.3. There is some hope that he can be better and this is a very weak bunch.
3 AlwaysonPar is a 4yo Always B Miki gelding out of Mach It A Par, who won more than 1 million as a racehorse, and she was out of Taylorlane Action, who made 568k in her time racing. Both mares took their life marks at 6, so there is some hope this guy may be a bit of a late bloomer. Although virtually no hope he will be anything like his sire, his dam or her dam. Relative to these, he shows some very fast times, but those were all on the bigger, faster tracks. Last time at the Big M, before that at Pocono and late winter at Harrah's Philly. For his Saratoga debut he gets a new trainer and owners, and hooks up with one of the better percentage drivers at this track. Can he get around a half? He has never tried so far, so that is an issue. He is the ML favorite and is likely to go off that way at post time. He comes off pacing in 1.55 flat last time parked and only beat a length to finish 2nd. That was 3 weeks ago.
4 GoneHunting won 3 times last year, racing at the New York fairs, banking 10k but has been overmatched in his 4 Saratoga races this winter to this point. He needs to leave much better and this time he has at least two to his inside who are likely to beat him to the front or pocket.
He is hard to like, but like many at this track and class, if things go right for him, like one of the two inside him that run and he can get to the spot, and possibly the 8 blasts off and gets hung, he has a minor shot to pick up the pieces. He looks like the type that would do better at Vernon when it opens, where his trainer driver usually races. For now, he needs a lot of luck and more speed.
5 UCan'tPikFamily started out with higher expectations last year at 2, racing in the 2yo Excellsior Series at Yonkers, drew the 2 hole, and was able to bag 3rd money, albeit back 9 lengths in pretty slow time for that track, in a very gapped out field at the wire behind him. From there, they shipped into Saratoga for the next leg of the series, where he was a well beaten 7th, 14 lengths back and they gave up the stakes chase. He was shipped to a new trainer, raced at the fairs for a while, same owners, and he took a few wins, but eventually he was sold after a maiden win at Vernon when it became clear he wouldn't be much more than that. His current connections bought him at that point, raced him once at Saratoga, in straight nw1 where he drew the 8 hole, left out, stuck with them to the half, then backed away badly to get beat 40 lengths and was promptly shut down for the season. He did win 2 times, once at the fair, once at Vernon, but he didn't beat much. Now back in maidens at Saratoga, he has drawn poorly twice, but shown mild improvement in overall time and closing ability. If he had drawn better here he would be more enticing, and when he draws better, he might be up to the task, if no returning stakes horses show up to spoil that party. One to watch. He is likely to pop at some stage.
6 Nathan'sHonor is a 3yo Ohio bred who tried the lower level stakes there last year, and while he had some speed, not enough for those types. When he aborted that trail and finished 7th in a straight maiden at Scioto those connections moved him along and now he has turned up in the maiden races at Saratoga with a new trainer and owners. Off a solid winning qualifier he was good again last time at this track, drawing the 8 hole, leaving enough to sit 4th at the quarter, moved to the outside for the 3rd quarter when the pace picked up, he paced his own 3rd quarter in 29 flat, and came home in 28.2 to just get beat a neck at 40-1. He draws a bit better here, same driver, and some fitness under his belt. He has a big shot against this suspect bunch.
7 LyonsDelightful bred by the Lyons racing bunch, he is by Bettors Delight and out of Lyons River Pride, who made 452k with a fast record and was a legit Open Mare at Mohawk for some time. They raced him last year at 2, where he won twice in the maidens at Flamboro, then continued on through the winter into this year, but finally gave up on him 2 months ago and sold him to Pacheco after two very bad efforts in January. From there, he broke in a qualifier at Monticello and then another at Saratoga, but came right back the next week, got around, paced in 59.3 clean and now debuts for a purse for this new connection. However, he draws some tougher ones and gets the 7 hole. I will watch him this time, but his breeding suggests he might find his way with these if he can keep it together and then draw better. He has shown more speed before, but also shows making breaks. He has to be seen and watched.
8 Playingrocknroll by Shadow Play, made one start at 2 at Vernon, then vanished to resurface in early January at Monticello with the previous trainer, go off 1-5 and wire them, daylighting the field in the stretch. From there, he turned up a month later at Saratoga, new trainer, same owner but had to start off in nw2. To his credit, he held his own in there and gradually beat them. By then he had a new, higher profile owner, but the same new trainer who raced him at Saratoga up to that point. Back in nw1 for 2 more starts, he has been a very short price and beaten both times from good posts, and now draws the 8 hole with at least two inside him who look better on paper. He will bring a price this time. Both times he was beaten by the same horse, and that one drew inside him last time, wouldn't let him take the top, then backed the half down, and outsprinted him and Nathans honor to the wire. He has a shot this time for a price without that winner back in against him.
RACE 3
Any of the inside 5 look to have a shot, but they all have some issues or questions about them.
1 KanonLaserDk a 5yo Danish bred gelding will get tagged for the first time now that he has been discarded by the Englom barn and given one try in conditions by Levine here at Saratoga. He drew the 7 hole last time for that try but gets the rail here. Two months ago at Yonkers he wired them from the 5 hole, and before that he trotted in 54 at the Meadowlands but his current form shows two 31 final quarters in his last two starts. Hopefully, the move to the claimer, plus the rail will braven him up.
2 PhantoTreasure finds a new home and connections at Saratoga after racing at Dover all winter. Her last was good, finishing 2nd at 67-1 after 3 long odds tries that yielded mid pack results. Off that good effort, the connections decided to move her. She is 26 for 48 lifetime on the ticket, and she wins her share. She has upside on the barn and location change.
3 EricaJane is a 4yo Iowa bred trotting mare for Harmon, who is very high percentage as a rule. Since the meet has opened in early February she has raced every week they have raced. She is however a slow starter and thus falls into tough trips. Because she gets the 3 hole this time the hope is she can get away 3rd or 4th, and not 5th or 6th, and maybe get some live cover to follow.
4 CivilianDrone seems a bit hit and miss. He opened the meet with a wire to wire score in good time then moved to tougher competition at Yonkers with two closing 3rd place finishes. Then he returned to Saratoga, back in the same class he wired a month ago, but this time he drew the 8 hole, and he made multiple breaks to be distanced. Now he comes right back to that class. Did the Yonkers tougher racing take something out of him? That is the potential issue. Have to see him parade. If he is good, he is likely to blast to the top.
5 Andover'sHotrod is a 4yo Andover Hall gelding for Stalbaum. He is very high percentage in that he has won more than 20 percent of his lifetime starts, earning 77k, so they were decent horses he beat, and also last year he was 21 for 32 on the ticket. That is the good news.
His first 3 starts this year have not been good. Last time he went to the front, from the 6 hole, had reasonable fractions, yet he backed up badly, and in his 3 starts this year his final quarters are awful. Stalbaum has been around a very long time, and if he keeps a horse like this around and races him every week, he must feel he is getting to the bottom of whatever the issue is. I would expect this time he buries him as he did 2 back and tries to braven him up. He is one to watch for a reversal of form back to the way he was last year.
6 BeauBear draws the 6 hole here, and he is a mediocre leaver at best from better posts. Its hard to like him for the win when he will spot the contenders 4 to 5 lengths. I will wait another day on him when he draws to the inside.
7 Bobcat has been off almost a month as he was injured before his last start. Before he was shut down last winter, he was in very good and winning form. Beckwith returns to the bike here, so that is a plus, but the time off and the bad post likely mean he is taking back and looking to close for a small slice here. He gets a drop in class here because he takes the claiming tag. That should help also.
8 NeverNot has been sharp lately, winning once and second twice in the last three starts. But, she draws the 8 hole here and that is the great equalizer in a field like this at a track like this. She would need a lot of luck to beat this entire field. I can't see it.
RACE 8
1 Greenhorn is 2 for 41 lifetime but has 22 2nd and 3rds to go with that. That tells you about the lack of grit this one likely has. Four starts back she actually beat this class even though she didn't start great from the 2 hole. Since then, back to the slow starts and minimal recoveries. She earns a decent buck doing that, but she is hard to like when it seems everything has to go her way for her to win, and even then she finds ways to lose. Pass.
2 NumberOneChild a well bred Walner 5yo who never really panned out but now is finding a home that suits him. He got the 2nd lifetime win in November, but now at 5, to stay in this class, which it appears he must, he has to race for the claiming tag, which he does every week and nobody has claimed him yet. He has drawn poorly in 3 of his last 4 starts, with mixed, mediocre results. The one time he drew inside, he left and was parked the mile. I would think he would be looking to leave a bit, beat the 1 horse out, protect position and let one go so he can follow that one to the passing lane late. If that happens, he has a reasonable shot to take these down. That is pretty much exactly what he did to get that 2nd life win, and he barely even got that.
3 CoachCalhoun a 5yo full brother to Warrawee Xenia who has not panned out at all considering his breeding comes off a vet scratch sick and has now missed more than 3 weeks. Before that he beat this class, and as the 6-5 favorite, he is very chancy to do it again. His big sister, Xenia, was very erratic and made a lot of breaks when she wasn't good. He showed the same pattern at the end of last year, and two of those breaks came after a race where he won easily at 1-5, then blew up the next two times at the same price. I have to see him parade. He looks like sucker money.
4 GreenBroadway is a 3yo Greenshoe colt who did not race at 2, has made two starts this winter at 3, both at 75-1, the first he ran and was distanced, the second last week he kept it together and was only beaten 2 lengths. He has some upside potential for the future, but he meets older horses who are winners here, while he is still a maiden. I will just watch this time.
5 BouquetsforAll is a 4yo Swan For All mare, who is a prolific winner, having won 13 of 58 lifetime starts and banked 82k. As such, she needs to take the tag to race with these, which she does every week. She is competitive most days either way, but seems to prefer the front to do her best work. She has at least 2 inside her that will want that trip, so she is likely to end up first over here. I'm not sure her current form suggests she can get there off that trip. She seems to be a one speed type, and with those, post position at tracks like this are important.
6 MarcelloHanover is a 5yo with only 28 lifetime starts. Of those, he has 2 wins and 13 seconds. He is a decent leaver, but he made a break last time trying to do that and he draws poorly here. I can't see him doing much damage based on the variables in play this time. When he draws better, he is more palatable.
7 PastorsNightmare wired this class last time from the rail, and that was the 4th rail start in a row. This time he draws way outside, and his 26-1 score last time is likely a one off for him. He is 1 for 35 lifetime, so that was his maiden score and he didn't win in 30 starts last year. Pass.
8 GamingQueen rises in class, draws the 8 hole and has spotty form to begin with. Hard pass.