Race 1
6 Feel Like A Woman better leaver than some, has speed. Shot
5 Steinbeck first time lasix, good form, good post. Bad value?
8 Felix Hanover slow starts, big speed appears there. Traffic trouble?
7 Green Grass Grows missed time, appears tight. Price is a factor.
3 Love Sensation improving. Price play contender but others better.
10 Up To No Gouda bad post, slow starter, looking for a slice
9 Coolcalmncollected good first effort, bad post hurts this time
1 Jonny Cracker project horse, coming along, but not yet.
2 Stormont Fullalife slow starter how has to do a lot more
4 Ilovemesometacos trying to just stay flat and show something
1 Jonny Cracker makes his 4th start for Etsell after a private purchase from Graham Kirby. The plan seems to be to take him back and let him learn how to race--to close, and then build speed from there. His breeding suggests he can be a hot potato if you let him start getting that idea, so Etsell continues to control the lines He isn't a toss but I would think he is still a work in progress, but one to watch to see if he can get away closer to the front at some point and use some of his ability to mow them down when he starts to become tactical. I will watch him another time here, but if I was inclined to play the pick 5 I would probably use him in case tonight is the night he puts it together. You would think a driver change would indicate that likelihood, but Etsell has fooled me before at boxcar odds.
2 Stormont Fullalife has 15 starts in the last two years at 3 and 4 but has yet to get the job done, although he only missed by a nose on February 23rd, albeit the winner was a very long time maiden in a suspect field to say the least. Other than that he seems to be hunting for 4th and 5th money most nights. He is consistently a very slow starter with limited means to recover, mostly depending on a front end collapse which almost worked out on February 23rd. That is not something you can count on, especially now that the real prospects are coming out of the woodwork this spring. Pass for me until I see something positive.
3 Love Sensation, a 3yo Walner filly who is 3rd time lasix, loses J Mac and thus picks up the 3rd MacDonald brother, but certainly no downgrade in picking up brother Mark. You can make a decent case that the lasix has helped, as she has stayed closer to the contenders and last time that got her 3rd money, leaving a bit then closing in 28.2. I have had some issues with her gait in the post parade in the past, so I will want to see her. But if she appears good to go, I'd consider her one to use with a decent shot if the contenders don't produce.
5 Steinbeck is a Chapter Seven 3/4 brother to top shelf mare Special Way who seems to be finding his way now at 3, bit by bit, inch by inch. He gets first time lasix here after getting 2nd money twice against arguably two very nice prospects who appear that they will go forward as they move up the class ladder. He also picks up McNair, and for sure, that will drive the price down. I don't see 2-1 as good value here and that is likely what is coming as the 2nd choice to the probably heavy favorite Felix Hanover.
6 Feel Like A Woman made 6 starts at 2 and was 2nd once in this class in decent time. Her dam was a solid mid level condition mare at this track for a long time, but she did take a while to find her niche. P Mac is as patient as they come, both as a driver and a trainer, so you would expect him to take care of her here, although he did deploy the 2 qualifier tactic for her return when he didn't have to. Her good gait speed should play well here with the likely favorites not that anxious to gun out. I will call her in a minor upset, and either way, she is a contender if the intent is there.
7 Green Grass Grows seemed to be progressing towards winning form in the winter when he turned up sick. His qualifier shows he is tight and ready to go, but he does meet a few here who are not winter horses, but prospects to do a lot better things with races under their belts. He has a minor shot tonight, but I think that 3-1 ML quote is low and you are more likely to see 5-1 or even a bit higher on him. If he was in the 8-1 range, he is worth taking a shot on.
8 Felix Hanover has shown flashes of speed in his few starts to this point, and despite being a Greenshoe, he isn't one to go for the front like many of those want to. Maybe that is smart long term thinking or maybe he is just figuring it all out. He has been parked out a lot, so that might suggest that even when they take him back, he hasn't learned to follow well to this stage. He shows being parked out the entire mile last time even from the back of the pack, but he was not. He floated out but only parked because he stayed in the two path, then taken back to last, on the rail the entire 2nd quarter, and gapped, but by design. He was never asked a step by driver Borth who returns again, but nevertheless he closed 9 lengths from the 3/4 pole to the wire to get 2nd money. It appears he could have won that race if there was intent to do that. He almost did anyways. The issue here is the very short price coming and the possibility that he will have road trouble here. I will play to beat him out of the win spot, but if I were to play the multi legs I would have to use him. If he starts a bit better and avoids the traffic, he has the ability to simply overpower this bunch. It looks like there is a lot more there than they are showing to this point.
9 Coolcalmncollected draws poorly again in his 2nd lifetime start, but he left sharply last time and held his ground the entire way, no match for the winner who appears to be a Gold Level horse and the second place horse whom he meets again with a post disadvantage. I like others this time, but let's see if he builds on that good first lifetime start.
2 Southview Abraham returned to Mohawk last time and managed to do enough right to get 3rd money. It seems that is the best he can do, and now he will face some better ones. He has not impressed me to this stage and I like others until he shows a lot more than he has to this point at this track. He will pick up Cullen here so I guess that is a positive.
3 Loyal Leo shows a lot of breaks on the page, mostly near the end of the mile when he seems to be going well and then just loses it. Last time you could argue he found the right field and wasn't pushed to beat those, going much slower than you would expect he will need this time. If they have waited all this time to try and get him sorted out, I doubt they are going to push him here against some tough customers with high hopes for a big season and no reason to hold back here. Watching quite a few of them I am not a big fan of his sire Gimpanzee and this is another example where I think he might not go forward very quickly. Pass for me but I will keep my eye on him. He will find a way at some point at this level.
5 Delightful Yankee a very big ticket yearling for an owner that buys a lot of those, she took a long time to make the races, but she was ready to race when she did and won fairly easily at first asking. After reviewing the bunch she beat, I was not impressed with many of those, especially the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. To her credit, she beat them, and she beat them easily, so it isn't her fault she didn't have to do more. Now, she will have to do more. Will she? She had a substantial lead on Upgrade last time and only beat her by half a length. That would concern me taking a short price here, which is almost a certainty.
6 None Shall Pass surprised in a maiden 2 back, when he added the hopples back and had the trainer calling the shots, but last time he just was no good at all. He did go the same basic mile, so maybe he is just not ready to go forward, or he isn't much stock. Or, he had a bad night. It's very hard to tell with him at this stage, so, on the rebound, for a price, he is worth using. I have no clear read on him at this point.
2 Brain Power. It's early, but he was a big ticket yearling and things don't look too rosy at this point to get that money back. He took a while to make the races, shows breaks, then held it together, only to start very poorly last time and then do little to inspire any confidence he is close to winning form. Young trotters, they can turn on a dime, and he would have to. Only because of the lack of talent in this race does he have any shot on some possible reversal. On the page, he looks hard to like.
3 Talbot Patriot shows very little at this point to suggest he is competitive, even with a poor underperforming bunch like this. He gets Mark Mac here, so I guess that is something. But he's not the Wizard of Oz either, so he will have to show something positive to get me aboard his train for another day. Not today for moi. He looks the type that might welcome Kawartha opening at some point. His good leaving and mediocre speed will play better there.
4 Dulces Suenos Deo is no mystery. He clearly could handle this bunch if he was pushed to, but will they push him to do that? History suggests not. He is a 4yo maiden with 57k made. And a lot of starts where he is right there, but isn't there just quite enough. We have seen this story and form from more than a few from this barn, and as such, his continual short price continues to be bad value. I will have to find another. When he wins, and he will win, unless it's a very large price, he will beat me.
5 Century Massiah raced 11 times at 2 and made 6k. In his return qualifier he did just that, go evenly and qualify, which is all he has to do. He did show a bit of speed last year, and in a suspect field like this, he isn't the biggest stab to take. His post is an advantage and longshot Phil seems to get a lot of these across.
6 Sherlyn Hanover blew up last time, and that happens with young inexperienced trotters. She was good in her qualifier and drew the 10 hole for her debut, also racing good all things considered. She can certainly reverse her mistake last time, but she is also young and green. I want to see her parade to get some clues from her. Certainly, I would not take a short price here.
7 My Classy Queen is one on my watch list. And when I say watch list, I mean watch. I am watching her. She has upside. She has ability. She also has issues which make her tough to drive. She is likely to improve and put it together within the next few starts. That could be tonight. She continues to start very slowly, and that was going to happen drawing the rail last time, but she did close a bit to her credit. She needs to be more manageable, but she is likely to be in the near future. For a big price, she is usable here. Trying to board her train at the right time is the issue. Hoping not to see the train leave the station and go steaming down the tracks to a big win is all about timing with this one. She could easily bankrupt you if you backed her enough times and leave you dry when it's time to cash in.
8 Switch is a pacing bred trotter, but she does trot. Except when she does not, as she made 2 breaks and was forced to qualify, which she did, then raced okay last time. Just okay. To me, she seems the type that will do very well at Grand River and or Georgian, a bigger B track with less overall speed needed. I will wait for that. Hard to see her from the 8 hole start here.
9 Hp Fashionista appears to be a homebred who was bought back at the sale for 135k. I would presume at this stage that his owner would like a mulligan on that. 135k plus stakes payments and a year and a half of training bills and she is just now racing, barely, after 5 qualifiers and loses Borth, who has handled her all along but took another here. I can't back one like this unless she suddenly finds her groove and wakes up. From the 9 hole tonight, it's hard to see a scenario that happens.
2 Lifting Legend, while a racehorse, and can leave, he will need to show a lot more speed to compete with these. I don't see that at this stage, so I will watch him. He is a long way class wise to go with the top 3 or 4 contenders in here. He will have to step up.
3 Green Nineteen returned to the races last time after a winter off. He was decent at 2, starting 9 times, winning a grassroots at Sarnia when the back half was very slow, then finishing 2nd and 3rd right off that winning mile then racing poorly in the grassroots final, after which he was shut down. He raced good last time but the winner was just better. Today is another day. If he can repeat that mile and that winner regresses, he has a legit shot and his price might float up a touch here. He is in the mix.
4 Charlie Cheeks seems to have needed a race 2 back when he drew bad and had a new trainer. That was not the case last time as he shot to the front and wired them in very good time. He is 2 for 26 lifetime, so while he comes back to the same class and meets many of the ones he beat, he isn't the type in my opinion that doubles up and comes right back and does it again. I will go against him and his likely very short price this time.
5 Silvy reeled in a fading loose leader last time and got the jump on the chalk who didn't seem that interested in winning anyway. In any event, she got it done, and now moves up to face much tougher and faster winners. I don't see her dropping 4 seconds here, or 20 lengths, so lets see if she can trot in 57 and pick up a slice as she finds a way.
6 The Hitman Heart seems to be progressing now to his breeding destiny, being a half brother to both Logan Park and Willys Home Run. Lasix seems to have helped him and his good leaving ability gives him a shot as he moves up the ladder. He is one of a few in here that can win this off the right trip. Adding Trevor Henry doesn't hurt here. He meets two in here who beat him last time. So there is also that. Every day is a new day in racing though. He missed a month between starts last time, off a horrid line. This time, off a good line, he comes right back. That is a positive development.
7 Trudybird ended the year poorly last year and last time, in her return she was equally as bad. Until she shows something to suggest she is rectified she is a hard pass for me.
8 Kinnder Icecube kept it together last time after blowing up in the stretch the race before when he was likely to get 2nd money. Now he draws the 8 hole and fields are deeper and tougher, which means he meets the 3 again that beat him last time. I have to pass this time until he shows me he can go with the better horses that are coming out now.
2 Hercules was impressive last time in this class, stalking the leaders, moving out then passing them fairly easily. He seems to be one of those who improves with age, and luckily for him, that means he hasn't made much in his career to this point, racing at the B's. The race office threw a condition on the end of nw2 that allows him to fit this class, and that makes him the one to beat here.
3 Shock Factor does not appear to be a Mohawk type horse, especially since he broke his maiden. Even then he was suspect, but he had a good night in the winter when they were very soft. That can and does happen, but what doesn't happen is going forward when the better ones come out, as they are now. I can't see him with these. Hard pass.
5 Tomboy Strong shipped here from Ohio where she debuted and beat the same horse that Hercules beat, but then drew the 10 hole and just raced, finishing well and taking her time down. She has a shot in this field, but she will have to be better than she was to sail by the leader that night who simply doesn't finish like some of these do.
6 Wolfpack Crown has two in a row now, the last one at this level, but he was all out to beat Check Master last time. In reality, he beat him because Check Master got wobbly and bad gaited when he was clearly going by Wolfpack Crown, who also did not look great on his own. I will gladly take Hercules and Tomboy Strong against him tonight. I think he was lucky to win last time.
7 Dont Chang My Naam earns a nice living for her connections picking up slices, and sometimes even 2nd money when things go her way. However, this is a far deeper bunch and she is chasing 3rd or 4th here.
2 Stormont Fullalife has 15 starts in the last two years at 3 and 4 but has yet to get the job done, although he only missed by a nose on February 23rd, albeit the winner was a very long time maiden in a suspect field to say the least. Other than that he seems to be hunting for 4th and 5th money most nights. He is consistently a very slow starter with limited means to recover, mostly depending on a front end collapse which almost worked out on February 23rd. That is not something you can count on, especially now that the real prospects are coming out of the woodwork this spring. Pass for me until I see something positive.
3 Love Sensation, a 3yo Walner filly who is 3rd time lasix, loses J Mac and thus picks up the 3rd MacDonald brother, but certainly no downgrade in picking up brother Mark. You can make a decent case that the lasix has helped, as she has stayed closer to the contenders and last time that got her 3rd money, leaving a bit then closing in 28.2. I have had some issues with her gait in the post parade in the past, so I will want to see her. But if she appears good to go, I'd consider her one to use with a decent shot if the contenders don't produce.
4 Ilovemesometacos was a cheap yearling purchase by Six Pack who has had gait issues since showing up. He shows 3 of the 5 lines on the page with a break, and thus was on the list. Hughes got him around and now lists a catch driver, with a better post this time. But he hasn't trotted a flat mile in a real race yet, and I will pass on him until I see something positive....like say a flat mile where he closes and doesn't look like he is being held together to do it.
5 Steinbeck is a Chapter Seven 3/4 brother to top shelf mare Special Way who seems to be finding his way now at 3, bit by bit, inch by inch. He gets first time lasix here after getting 2nd money twice against arguably two very nice prospects who appear that they will go forward as they move up the class ladder. He also picks up McNair, and for sure, that will drive the price down. I don't see 2-1 as good value here and that is likely what is coming as the 2nd choice to the probably heavy favorite Felix Hanover.
6 Feel Like A Woman made 6 starts at 2 and was 2nd once in this class in decent time. Her dam was a solid mid level condition mare at this track for a long time, but she did take a while to find her niche. P Mac is as patient as they come, both as a driver and a trainer, so you would expect him to take care of her here, although he did deploy the 2 qualifier tactic for her return when he didn't have to. Her good gait speed should play well here with the likely favorites not that anxious to gun out. I will call her in a minor upset, and either way, she is a contender if the intent is there.
7 Green Grass Grows seemed to be progressing towards winning form in the winter when he turned up sick. His qualifier shows he is tight and ready to go, but he does meet a few here who are not winter horses, but prospects to do a lot better things with races under their belts. He has a minor shot tonight, but I think that 3-1 ML quote is low and you are more likely to see 5-1 or even a bit higher on him. If he was in the 8-1 range, he is worth taking a shot on.
8 Felix Hanover has shown flashes of speed in his few starts to this point, and despite being a Greenshoe, he isn't one to go for the front like many of those want to. Maybe that is smart long term thinking or maybe he is just figuring it all out. He has been parked out a lot, so that might suggest that even when they take him back, he hasn't learned to follow well to this stage. He shows being parked out the entire mile last time even from the back of the pack, but he was not. He floated out but only parked because he stayed in the two path, then taken back to last, on the rail the entire 2nd quarter, and gapped, but by design. He was never asked a step by driver Borth who returns again, but nevertheless he closed 9 lengths from the 3/4 pole to the wire to get 2nd money. It appears he could have won that race if there was intent to do that. He almost did anyways. The issue here is the very short price coming and the possibility that he will have road trouble here. I will play to beat him out of the win spot, but if I were to play the multi legs I would have to use him. If he starts a bit better and avoids the traffic, he has the ability to simply overpower this bunch. It looks like there is a lot more there than they are showing to this point.
9 Coolcalmncollected draws poorly again in his 2nd lifetime start, but he left sharply last time and held his ground the entire way, no match for the winner who appears to be a Gold Level horse and the second place horse whom he meets again with a post disadvantage. I like others this time, but let's see if he builds on that good first lifetime start.
10 Up To No Gouda made a break at the start last time, recovered, then closed well for 2nd money. The issue for me is the slower overall time and that is a consistent thing with him to this point. Add to that that he draws the 10 hole here and that he starts slowly from all posts at this stage of his development, and I'd say he could be spotting the contenders 15 lengths at the half. I don't see him making up that kind of ground on all of these. He has a shot at 4th money if he finds some flow and picks off the faders and hangers. Pass for the win.
Race Summary
note...sts-second time starter
Felix Hanover slightly gapped the gate but nothing major, bothered briefly by the one to his left who ran off the gate, left a bit more, floated out but was clearly going forward this time. He stayed out the entire first quarter and halfway to the half, never looking to duck in, then cleared, making the front under no urging and then went a 2nd quarter in 30 flat. He was then challenged on the turn by Steinbeck, but as Borth lightly shook the lines, he went enough to discourage that one. Down the lane, the win was never in doubt as he only went enough to hold the lead he had. It looked more like a qualifier than a race for him. He has not been tested yet so its not clear where his bottom is at this point. MTB. Steinbeck left sharply but 3 others were faster to the front and he settled in 4th, letting them go. He was sitting 5th down the backside when the eventual winner took control. He sat mildly gapped, then closed that up and moved first over to engage the leader, getting even with him on the turn but never really bothered him enough to suggest he was getting to him. He raced fine, 2nd to a sharp prospect, but he was all out down the lane and the 3rd horse almost passed him from way back. He is progressing, but I see troubling signs of a hanger which might make him a good play against next time in this class. Up To No Gouda is a big, rangy long striding and high stepping type that you notice in the post parade. In spite of his previous lines, he did leave hard and well from the 10 hole this time, although he wasn't being gunned and did that on his own. He wasn't making front, so he ducked into the 3 hole which McNair was glad to let him do as he wanted him out of the way to make his first over bid with Steinbeck. The 3 hole became the 4 hole, became the 5 hole became the 6 hole and he was sitting 7th on the turn as the leader cleared, Steinbeck pulled first over and two others followed him into the flow. That shuffle surely cost him 2nd money and he may have made it interesting for the win if he was moving earlier. He angled out mid turn but that flow in front of him forced him wide early. He came flying home trotting his own last quarter in 28 flat, the only horse in the race to trot that last quarter in under 29 seconds. A solid early and late move and he is surely getting bet next time, but I would take him over Steinbeck next time if they meet again. Feel Like A Woman did not leave forwardly as I thought she might, was actually gapped off a length and looking to duck as soon as the car pulled away. She settled in 8th, and stayed put in no rush until after the half where she got on the move and in the outer flow. She was running in a bit, even then. She did go forward, looking live on her cover, but that cover was stalling and a noted fader/hanger, and she was moved wide coming off the turn. As soon as she turned for home she began to run in badly, and then when she cleared the ones in front of her, ran into the pylons so bad she had to be steadied, but held 4th money late as the ones behind her were very suspect. I see troubling signs that she is that iffy in her first start back off a layoff and she is back in to go on Friday. Ilovemesometacos, a horse with previous breaking issues, I was looking for a flat line, to see him go forward late and not being held together. Check, check, check. He left cleanly, went to the rail, stayed there until mid stretch, he wasn't being held together but he also wasn't driven or being asked for anything the entire way. He was well clear of the ones behind him to get 5th money, but now he has that clean line he will have to do more to be ticket competitive. A positive step forward but he will have to take more steps to be betable. Jonny Cracker was well gapped off the gate from the rail, I'd say 3 lengths, and that that was intentional by the trainer/driver. He raced most of the way in 9th, two lengths gapped off the 8th horse and ahead of only an early breaker. He was angled out on the turn, seemed to be mildly going forward but that is with a pack that were mostly backpeddling. He was charted as receiving some interference in the stretch when another got wobbly in front of him, but it didn't seem to bother him much. He did nothing wrong, and as a project horse every time he does that is a plus, but he doesn't do enough right yet. He only came home in 30 seconds after doing nothing the entire mile. He looks to be at least 2 more races from being viable. Coolcalmncollected, a sts, again left out sharp, this time clearing from the 9 hole before the first turn. He rated well and let the dominant winner clear and followed him but began gapping badly on the turn as the pace picked up a bit. He was all done at the fair start pole, finishing in 31.3 well up the track. He just seems green and I'd expect the next time he will not leave as hard and race off a helmet from mid pack. He has upside when he learns to be more tactical. His time will likely come. Love Sensation again looked a bit wobbly gaited parading, but then scored out okay. Maybe that is just the way she goes. She left well and secured a 2 hole to the backside. She was sitting fine until the two main contenders hooked up and the one she had let go backed into her while the flow to her outside had her trapped in. Nevertheless, when free she did not go forward and possibly the lasix is not helping her and she needs to find much softer competition. If she needs a bigger track, this stable races at The Meadows and Oak Grove, so that might be her next stop. She was 50-1, so maybe she just isn't that much stock. Stormont Fullalife doesn't need much analysis. Same as before. Didn't do enough, had a good trip, backed up badly and looks greatly overmatched. Green Grass Grows didn't look good travelling behind in post parade, but wasn't horrible. He got wobbly leaving and took off running and then was distanced from there. One to watch to see which way he goes.
Race 2
1 Rico Tubbs has stakes ability if he behaves. Barn brings them ready
5 Delightful Yankee long term prospect, need to adapt here? Price?
4 Hadley post switch, has some ability. Wide open race gives her a shot.
6 None Shall Pass possible rebounder for a price.
3 Loyal Leomoves up,makes breaks,these are tougher than he has seen
7 Southwind Manhattn slow starts, mediocre form, trainer driving
2 Southview Abraham needs to show a lot more to be win candidate
1 Rico Tubbs, a 3yo gelding by Father Patrick is a yearling purchase for The Stable who earned almost 40k USD last year hanging out at the lower levels of the PASS where he was reasonably good when he didn't jump it off. He finished his year at Delaware during Jug Week with a 3rd money showing for a pretty nice purse. Upon his return to the races, he jumped it off again in his first qualifier at Mohawk, but then held it together in the 2nd one and now races for a purse. With his propensity to make breaks, he will have to be seen parading. He has the speed if he can keep it together. He has a shot here. Note he didn't use the hopples in that return qualifier but put them back on in the 2nd one, so one would think that might explain why he jumped this time.
2 Southview Abraham returned to Mohawk last time and managed to do enough right to get 3rd money. It seems that is the best he can do, and now he will face some better ones. He has not impressed me to this stage and I like others until he shows a lot more than he has to this point at this track. He will pick up Cullen here so I guess that is a positive.
3 Loyal Leo shows a lot of breaks on the page, mostly near the end of the mile when he seems to be going well and then just loses it. Last time you could argue he found the right field and wasn't pushed to beat those, going much slower than you would expect he will need this time. If they have waited all this time to try and get him sorted out, I doubt they are going to push him here against some tough customers with high hopes for a big season and no reason to hold back here. Watching quite a few of them I am not a big fan of his sire Gimpanzee and this is another example where I think he might not go forward very quickly. Pass for me but I will keep my eye on him. He will find a way at some point at this level.
4 Hadley is a strikingly athletic mare, but she has been at this level a long time and only has one lifetime win in a lot of starts. My patience with her is wearing thin. She did trot faster last time, so I guess that is some progress and she gets off the rail this time. I have some questions about others in here, so for a big price, she is a viable stab to take with an aggressive driver like Thiessen in the bike.
5 Delightful Yankee a very big ticket yearling for an owner that buys a lot of those, she took a long time to make the races, but she was ready to race when she did and won fairly easily at first asking. After reviewing the bunch she beat, I was not impressed with many of those, especially the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. To her credit, she beat them, and she beat them easily, so it isn't her fault she didn't have to do more. Now, she will have to do more. Will she? She had a substantial lead on Upgrade last time and only beat her by half a length. That would concern me taking a short price here, which is almost a certainty.
6 None Shall Pass surprised in a maiden 2 back, when he added the hopples back and had the trainer calling the shots, but last time he just was no good at all. He did go the same basic mile, so maybe he is just not ready to go forward, or he isn't much stock. Or, he had a bad night. It's very hard to tell with him at this stage, so, on the rebound, for a price, he is worth using. I have no clear read on him at this point.
7 Southwind Manhattn has been hanging around this class, showing some signs but not doing enough when it matters. The trainer will drive again tonight when there are good catch drivers out there to choose from. For that reason, I view her as a bit player at this stage. She isn't impossible, but I like others better in here. For now anyway. She needs to vastly improve on her slow starts.
Race Summary
note...PASS , Pennsylvania Sire Stakes.
note...pea hearted. A horse that will not try unless everything goes their way. Most of them win opening up big leads and just hanging on.
Delightful Yankee left out but was in no hurry, briefly made the lead but let two others go. As she did that, McClure was glancing over at Loyal Leo who was left parked out to make sure he could get off the pylons and into the flow. Which he did and that left him 2nd over briefly until Leo cleared the front, then she came after him and breezed by him gradually in a 29 second 3rd quarter which she trotted faster than that then opened up on the field. It is worthy to note that again she opened up a lead and then seemed to let up a touch, and McClure was reminding her at times the job is not done until the wire. She never looked like she was getting beat, but her tendency to let up is troubling for now. It could just be greenness, but as she rises up the ladder she wont always get away with that. She was an easy winner though. Rico Tubbs floated out from the rail to sit well back, last of 7, following the gapping 2 horse who was not going anywhere. Heading into the last turn M Mac had enough of that view and pulled the switch, and Rico responded by gaining rapidly, picking up 3rd over cover but not satisfied with that and angling immediately around those ones. He trotted his own back half in 57 and his last quarter in 28.2. He was an impressive 2nd best and with this one under his belt, I could see him beating the winner next time if they meet up again next week. Loyal Leo seemed to be handled carefully by P Mac, and wisely so considering the mistakes he has made along the way, floated out but wasn't ducking and taking back, P Mac looking both left and right several times before deciding to stay out and keep going forward, in a measured way. He just kept grinding and trucking on through the first turn, 3 wide for a bit until he turned down the backside parked out. He did have cover until the 7 horse cleared, then parked out to just past the half when he cleared himself. By this time the winner was already coming for him and put him away on the turn. P Mac showed no desire to even fight that one off, and that paid off when he trotted evenly down the lane to hold 3rd, nabbed for 2nd money by Rico Tubbs. He received a few light taps down the lane and he kept going. Considering his trip and his previous issues, a successful effort and he trotted in 57.1. He has potential to start showing more if he keeps going in the right direction. None Shall Pass left out well and was the first leader into the turn. There was a lot of action in this race, leader changes, and he ended up 5th going into the last turn, then angled out with a clear flow and lane, and was an okay 4th, just missing 3rd money. Considering his last no show effort, that was a good rebound. He still leaves the impression he is very green and doesn't understand racing yet. But he has upside as he goes along. He took his overall time down, so that is a good thing. Southview Abraham was smartly driven here, taken back, sat back, waited as long as he could and just got up for 5th money, which is about all he can hope for in this class. He is what he is. Southwind Manhattn did improve on her slow starts, so that is a plus. But you can possibly see why that has been an issue before. She leaves just enough to get herself in trouble, and did that here. She was parked almost to the 3/8ths, then cleared but had to let one go and then lost ground sitting in a bit. She gained nothing by trying to leave but used energy to do that. That left her weak for the lane and she let a no shot type beat her out of 5th money on the line. From a better post, and with some leaving and getting a two hole trip, at some point I could see her winning this class for a price. Hadley was once again very disapointing. She left enough to be in position to pick up very live cover in the winner, but once that one cleared, she wilted badly to finish dead last, well beaten and clearly spent mid stretch. She appears to be pea hearted, and as such, if she falls into a sweet trip, much like Southwind Manhattn, she is capable of doing something with that. I would need a very big price going forward to take that risk. I thought she might be a long shot this time, but she took a lot of early money, even was the favorite about 2 MTP, but raced like something that should have been 10-1, which is where I pegged her at.
Race 4
5 Century Massiah has upside, right spot. Taking a flyer.
7 My Classy Queen taking a wild stab, One day. Today?
1 Gone With The Wine another who can win. Needs a lot to go right.
4 Dulces Suenos Deo professional maiden. month off. Intent.
6 Sherlyn Hanover good enough, but, issues, and green. Bad value?
8 Switch post will hurt, makes breaks. longshot
2 Brain Power hard to like until he gets his act together
3 Talbot Patriot he shows little to suggest he can compete
9 Hp Fashionista fts, took 5 qua just to get to this stage. 9 hole
1 Gone With The Wine drew the 9 hole last time and that did him in from the get go. He spotted them 8 and only got beat 3, so that is a deceptively decent showing for a young horse just finding his way at this track anyway. Now he draws the rail, better but still not great, and he will have to get a bit closer to the front and find some flow. That isn't impossible in this very suspect bunch. Borth ditched a Ben B prospect in here for this one, although the Ben B one has a bad post and has not shown much to this stage.
2 Brain Power. It's early, but he was a big ticket yearling and things don't look too rosy at this point to get that money back. He took a while to make the races, shows breaks, then held it together, only to start very poorly last time and then do little to inspire any confidence he is close to winning form. Young trotters, they can turn on a dime, and he would have to. Only because of the lack of talent in this race does he have any shot on some possible reversal. On the page, he looks hard to like.
3 Talbot Patriot shows very little at this point to suggest he is competitive, even with a poor underperforming bunch like this. He gets Mark Mac here, so I guess that is something. But he's not the Wizard of Oz either, so he will have to show something positive to get me aboard his train for another day. Not today for moi. He looks the type that might welcome Kawartha opening at some point. His good leaving and mediocre speed will play better there.
4 Dulces Suenos Deo is no mystery. He clearly could handle this bunch if he was pushed to, but will they push him to do that? History suggests not. He is a 4yo maiden with 57k made. And a lot of starts where he is right there, but isn't there just quite enough. We have seen this story and form from more than a few from this barn, and as such, his continual short price continues to be bad value. I will have to find another. When he wins, and he will win, unless it's a very large price, he will beat me.
5 Century Massiah raced 11 times at 2 and made 6k. In his return qualifier he did just that, go evenly and qualify, which is all he has to do. He did show a bit of speed last year, and in a suspect field like this, he isn't the biggest stab to take. His post is an advantage and longshot Phil seems to get a lot of these across.
6 Sherlyn Hanover blew up last time, and that happens with young inexperienced trotters. She was good in her qualifier and drew the 10 hole for her debut, also racing good all things considered. She can certainly reverse her mistake last time, but she is also young and green. I want to see her parade to get some clues from her. Certainly, I would not take a short price here.
7 My Classy Queen is one on my watch list. And when I say watch list, I mean watch. I am watching her. She has upside. She has ability. She also has issues which make her tough to drive. She is likely to improve and put it together within the next few starts. That could be tonight. She continues to start very slowly, and that was going to happen drawing the rail last time, but she did close a bit to her credit. She needs to be more manageable, but she is likely to be in the near future. For a big price, she is usable here. Trying to board her train at the right time is the issue. Hoping not to see the train leave the station and go steaming down the tracks to a big win is all about timing with this one. She could easily bankrupt you if you backed her enough times and leave you dry when it's time to cash in.
8 Switch is a pacing bred trotter, but she does trot. Except when she does not, as she made 2 breaks and was forced to qualify, which she did, then raced okay last time. Just okay. To me, she seems the type that will do very well at Grand River and or Georgian, a bigger B track with less overall speed needed. I will wait for that. Hard to see her from the 8 hole start here.
9 Hp Fashionista appears to be a homebred who was bought back at the sale for 135k. I would presume at this stage that his owner would like a mulligan on that. 135k plus stakes payments and a year and a half of training bills and she is just now racing, barely, after 5 qualifiers and loses Borth, who has handled her all along but took another here. I can't back one like this unless she suddenly finds her groove and wakes up. From the 9 hole tonight, it's hard to see a scenario that happens.
Race Summary
Note..mid pack slice chasers. A horse that the driver knows is not good enough, so they sit back, make no moves, and try to come late to pick up a small cheque by passing others of the same kind.
6 Sherlyn Hanover passed the post parade test I was watching for. I saw no issues there. She left out, made an easy lead, cut sensible easy fractions and kept on going while never being urged. Roy looked over only once just near the wire but he knew he had it won and basically just sat chilly on her. I don't know what happened last time, but I see no evidence of anything to suggest it was nothing more than a minor issue that isn't present now. She appears to have a nice future. Switch looked better parading than she has in the last few races to me. She left strong and secured a nice two hole trip behind the leader and easy winner. She followed willingly and professionally in that pocket, very rateable even when the half was backed down. She pulled the pocket down the lane but she was never getting to the winner, who is likely just a better horse. If not for her, she breaks her maiden in this race. That was her best start in a long time. Century Massiah is a big strong, good looking colt who catches your eye when he parades. He has a sweet, long gait and he is very willing but manageable. He follows the gate well and then leaves with the car to gain a nice tactical trip, which is exactly what he did here. Being that he was off all winter, there was no intention to pull him first up out of the 3 hole on a leader who is likely better than he is, certainly at this point anyway. I would think he is aiming for the Grassroots program and this was stop 1 on that long trail. Jones is very good at managing a young trotter like this. He stuck right with the top 2 all the way to the wire and I'd think off a soft trip like that he goes forward next time. My Classy Queen showed the improvement I was looking for this time. That is not to say she is anywhere closed to a finished product. She still needs to learn to change gears smoothly, so putting her anywhere near the lead is not an option yet. But, she is getting better with how she carries her head and accelerates. She certainly gives the impression she wants to go more the entire way than she is showing, and as such, when turned loose late this time after sitting way back she shot forward for 4th money and might have gotten 3rd if started up earlier. She only trotted in 2 minutes flat here, so she isn't channeling Mack Lobell at this point, but she did come home in 28 flat and looked very good doing it. There is something there. Her major issue remains that she needs to sit back, and like this time, that means a lot of slow moving traffic in front of her. When she removes that barrier is a guessing game, but she will.
Dulces Suenos Deo did as expected. Took back, made a mild bid and did enough to pick up 5th money. Nothing to see or really say here. He is a known quantity. He is about as consistent as they come. Consistently mediocre. Hp Fashionista surprised me a bit, I have to say. For a 3yo filly who was a big ticket yearling who took a long time to even make the races, I expected to see some issue. I saw none. She looks fantastic, is a good mover, seems willing and she tries to the wire. Being a fts with an outer post she was for sure up against it from the get go. She left well, well enough to earn the 5 hole as the rail horse was just a shade from running the entire way and thus being held so that opened a hole for her, which McNair gladly accepted. She followed well, like a pro, gapped for a bit but closed that gap up, then stayed in wisely to take her chances late. Obviously, this was a learning experience trip. She is the typical Muscle Mass type....long gaited, high striding and fairly smooth moving, much like Century Massiah and countless others. You can see why they paid 135k to retain her. With a better post this time she likely gets 4th money. She is on my watch list for sure, and she might be worth playing next time, based on variables like post position and who she meets. Talbot Patriot left well enough to gain the 4 hole, and from there he just followed around, never leaving the pylons right to the wire. That should have been good enough for at least 4th money, but as before it just wasn't. He seems to be progressing, but that progress still leads me to the opinion that he is more suited to racing at Kawartha all summer than competing at Mohawk. He was 97-1 and he races like a 97-1 shot. When they hit the tote board, even the mid pack slice chasers pass him. Gone With The Wine looked terrible parading, and even worse scoring down and then racing. He is about as close to a horse making a break but not actually doing it, and if you just went by his charted race line you would not know that. He looks like one who was done in by the rail start, then first over and faded late. But, the real story is he was almost off stride multiple times and every time he attempted to go forward he was rocky gaited. What the actual issue is I cannot say, but its not mental. He has a lameness or major soreness problem. His dam is by Southwind Frank and you see that sort of thing from a lot of them. To me, he is not viable from any post against any class at any track until that is corrected, if it can be corrected. He might be one that is stung by now racing faster at the big track and showing that wear and tear 3 races into that journey. He trotted the slowest last quarter in the entire race except for the distanced breaker, and that is saying something considering the level some of those ones are prone to fade and stop. Brain Power is hard to figure. Many in this race are fairly easy. Talbot Patriot is not good enough. Century Massiah is a developing prospect. Gone With The Wine has a soundness issue. Brain Power parades good, moves well, behaves okay, seems to be leaving but then he just rolls off stride and doesn't get back to it. I don't see the issue, but there is some issue. He bears watching. Maybe P Mac will figure him out. The jury is out. Right now he is just no good. He ran and he was never on the screen. That is about all I can say this time.
Race 6
6 The Hitman Heart comes back faster this time. Seems live.
3 Green Nineteen 2nd back. Good last time. In the mix.
4 Charlie Cheeks very good last time. Can he double up?
2 Lifting Legend will have to step up to compete, I don't see that.
5 Silvy large rise in class. Needs more. I don't see that yet.
8 Kinnder Icecube hard pass with these tonight.
1 Resolved Issues doesn't appear good enough against these
7 Trudybird currently is not usable as she appears
1 Resolved Issues won this class 3 back but appeared wildly overmatched in his next two when he moved up. He will get to drop back to the class that he won, but now the fields are deeper and tougher. He is hard to like against the contenders here.
2 Lifting Legend, while a racehorse, and can leave, he will need to show a lot more speed to compete with these. I don't see that at this stage, so I will watch him. He is a long way class wise to go with the top 3 or 4 contenders in here. He will have to step up.
3 Green Nineteen returned to the races last time after a winter off. He was decent at 2, starting 9 times, winning a grassroots at Sarnia when the back half was very slow, then finishing 2nd and 3rd right off that winning mile then racing poorly in the grassroots final, after which he was shut down. He raced good last time but the winner was just better. Today is another day. If he can repeat that mile and that winner regresses, he has a legit shot and his price might float up a touch here. He is in the mix.
4 Charlie Cheeks seems to have needed a race 2 back when he drew bad and had a new trainer. That was not the case last time as he shot to the front and wired them in very good time. He is 2 for 26 lifetime, so while he comes back to the same class and meets many of the ones he beat, he isn't the type in my opinion that doubles up and comes right back and does it again. I will go against him and his likely very short price this time.
5 Silvy reeled in a fading loose leader last time and got the jump on the chalk who didn't seem that interested in winning anyway. In any event, she got it done, and now moves up to face much tougher and faster winners. I don't see her dropping 4 seconds here, or 20 lengths, so lets see if she can trot in 57 and pick up a slice as she finds a way.
6 The Hitman Heart seems to be progressing now to his breeding destiny, being a half brother to both Logan Park and Willys Home Run. Lasix seems to have helped him and his good leaving ability gives him a shot as he moves up the ladder. He is one of a few in here that can win this off the right trip. Adding Trevor Henry doesn't hurt here. He meets two in here who beat him last time. So there is also that. Every day is a new day in racing though. He missed a month between starts last time, off a horrid line. This time, off a good line, he comes right back. That is a positive development.
7 Trudybird ended the year poorly last year and last time, in her return she was equally as bad. Until she shows something to suggest she is rectified she is a hard pass for me.
Race Summary
The Hitman Heart performed as expected and I got paid as a result. When you watch him parade, he is just a big, rangy horse who has taken some time to find his groove. A lot of trotters are like that. He has the breeding to back up that situation now, as mentioned in my pre race assessment. He left well again and was happy to take the 3 hole trip. It was a smaller and fairly gapped out field, and things got a lot more promising when the favorite blew up out of the 4 hole. The backfield was no factor, so The Hitman didn't have to move until the 3/4 pole and that likely won him the race. The other favorite in the pocket also did not move and he didn't have to go around him. Everything went right this time for him, but he also made his own luck and delivered when asked. Turning this race into a sprint down the lane favored a big rangy type like him. Next time those things might not go his way. Kinnder Icecube is a very good lesson about younger trotters that I ignored this time and was almost burned by it. He is a 4yo, not a young colt, but he is still pretty inexperienced so current appearance matters. A month ago he was doing well, but then he went off form, made a break, then was only so so the next time. In the post parade this time, he looked very sharp. Sound, willing, and his previous performance means he shows capability.
I ignored that and it turns out he was the value in the race. A $2 exactor here paid $100 even, and a $2 triactor paid $260.20 and I could have easily had both of those. I liked the winner on top, I had thought the favorite was prone to blow up, and I liked the 3rd horse as something that was involved but not a value winner. I messed all that up not paying enough attention. Trotters are very variable and that always has to be remembered. While Charlie Cheeks was likely not to double up as I noted, Kinnder was likely to rebound at some point. I should have been on that. Kinnder did just what he does, when he is good. He went to the front, kept going and then took them a long way before being worn down by a tripped out horse. Not paying attention costs you money. Lets see how he looks next time. Green Nineteen each time a horse races you can learn something. I noted that if he repeats the last race and the favorite blows up, he has a legit shot. He did repeat that race, the favorite did blow up, but his legit shot did not match his odds. I noted last year he won a race where the pace was slow in the back half. That is how he is likely to win races. If you watch Ratchford, he drove a very good and smart race. He used this ones tactical speed to get out towards the front, but not cut it. He let McClure make an easy lead but was looking over to make sure he could beat Henry to the 2 hole but also that he would accept and have a good 3 hole. From there, he sat put in the pocket, following a live one. He even sat a very loose pocket to the 3/4s but then if the driver had confidence in him he would have made sure he was out and going and attacking. He didn't. That tells you the read Ratchford has on him. He needs a lot of protection to beat this level. Which he will at some point. But he has two things he can do. He can leave well, and he has about a 16th of a brush and any more than that and he turns into Hadley, which I mentioned above. He can repeat this race and his last and many before like it 10 times but still be the same horse. Both of them are by Green Manalishi, and there are a lot of really good ones by him, but also many like Hadley and Green Nineteen who aren't the bravest types. He fits that mold and you can expect most drivers to drive him this way. He looks good finishing a close 3rd here, on the page, but I don't expect much improvement, or regression next time. Resolved Issues strikes me as just a nice, honest cheap horse. He does nothing wrong, wins every now and then, mostly in the winter when the fields aren't deep and slower, but now they are neither of those, and he doesn't appear the type who can handle the rise to nw3, which will soon be coming for him. He is 4 now, and his future is likely at some track in the States where the conditions are more favorable. Like Oak Grove or Running Aces. He did everything right here. He left a bit, stayed in, didn't move until he had to, but as soon as he got close to the top 3, they gapped him and he couldn't close that gap. The resolution to his issue appears to be softer competition. Elsewhere. Silvy was as expected. She took her time down, hung in there and was good for 5th money. She is progressing, but she has a long way to go to beat any of the contenders in this race. I would think back to Flamboro might be a good idea, unless they are okay with small slices. She will have to do and show more to be a viable win candidate. Trudybird got the job done. The job she was tasked with tonight. Stay flat, follow along, close okay and show she is going in the right direction. P Mac floated her out, took her to the back, she was happy with that, and she brushed late, evenly to finish okay. Now she needs to do more. She is on the radar but still I need to see more evidence to start looking at her as a win candidate. Lifting Legend, is one I didn't know well from before. I noted I didn't like what I saw on the page, but I didn't know why. He did not make a good post parade impression, and it appears he has hind end issues. He floated out, had a decent 5 hole trip and every chance to get a slice in the lane, but when asked even mediocre ones like Silvy and Trudybird trotted away from him. He has no push when asked for it at this track. I don't view him as a Mohawk horse unless he shows me a race otherwise. He will be a hard pass until then.
Race 8
2 Hercules hard to fault him. Improving and sharp horse.
5 Tomboy Strong possible, but top choice looks better.
6 Wolfpack Crown two in a row, but meets the acid test tonight
4 Calgary Morning return race. have to see how he stacks up
7 Dont Chang My Naam has a shot at the bottom of the ticket
3 Shock Factor completely outclassed by these
1 Pats Queen way over her head
1 Pats Queen looks like a mare that should be in a maiden. Even then, I doubt she beats some of the ones who have surfaced now. With these, she shows nothing to suggest she can make the ticket, let alone win.
2 Hercules was impressive last time in this class, stalking the leaders, moving out then passing them fairly easily. He seems to be one of those who improves with age, and luckily for him, that means he hasn't made much in his career to this point, racing at the B's. The race office threw a condition on the end of nw2 that allows him to fit this class, and that makes him the one to beat here.
3 Shock Factor does not appear to be a Mohawk type horse, especially since he broke his maiden. Even then he was suspect, but he had a good night in the winter when they were very soft. That can and does happen, but what doesn't happen is going forward when the better ones come out, as they are now. I can't see him with these. Hard pass.
4 Calgary Morning had high hopes when he came out last year at 2, starting out with Gold colts but ultimately showing they were just too fast and tough for him. He was moved to the Grassroots level and he was marginally better before being shut down after a win. Did that ambitious high hopes start to his career take the starch out of him? We shall see. It does for some and it can take a long time before they get that desire and energy to race back. His two qualifiers have been just okay, so let's see what he brings to the table tonight. Hard to see him beating Hercules, Tomboy Strong and Wolfpack Crown, so I will pass on him tonight and just watch.
5 Tomboy Strong shipped here from Ohio where she debuted and beat the same horse that Hercules beat, but then drew the 10 hole and just raced, finishing well and taking her time down. She has a shot in this field, but she will have to be better than she was to sail by the leader that night who simply doesn't finish like some of these do.
6 Wolfpack Crown has two in a row now, the last one at this level, but he was all out to beat Check Master last time. In reality, he beat him because Check Master got wobbly and bad gaited when he was clearly going by Wolfpack Crown, who also did not look great on his own. I will gladly take Hercules and Tomboy Strong against him tonight. I think he was lucky to win last time.
7 Dont Chang My Naam earns a nice living for her connections picking up slices, and sometimes even 2nd money when things go her way. However, this is a far deeper bunch and she is chasing 3rd or 4th here.
Race Summary
Hercules like The Hitman Heart showed up as expected, performed as I expected and took advantage of an overbet favorite with enough flaws to do him in. He floated away 4th, sat in to past the 5/8ths, moved out and forced Tomboy Strong to do the same and cover him up, he was live on that helmet every step, tipped mid lane and had just enough to beat the favorite on the line. The perfect trip for a sharp and improving horse. Can he compete at the next level up? I am on the fence on that. He will have to be better when he meets those. Wolfpack Crown was one who I was obviously taking a strong stand and position against here. To his credit he almost proved me wrong. At the end of the day though, he had to work for it and he didn't have Check Master to his outside this time, trying to run when he could have been passing him, he had a solid Hercules showing his might. He looked off a touch behind parading, but nothing that would suggest he was going to blow up, which he didn't, sort of. He left hard but he had one to his outside at 47-1 blast to the top and McClure seemed okay letting that one go and following. He never attempted the retake although he had chances to do that. That tells you something, as did his decision to stay in. When following he was all over the helmet and Wolfpack even tossed his head mildly, but he was told to follow and follow he did. I think McClure is pretty aware that he is not going to be viable trying to boss around and blitz the maidens and the ones he met last time when he meets better ones like this and the next level up. As he approached the final turn he was all over the leaders helmet as she began to let go, but he had committed to staying in, I guess noting that she was likely to drift out, which she did halfway down the lane, and for which Thiessen received a fine for letting happen. In the meantime, Tomboy Strong had the jump on him and Hercules was hitched to that caboose. You could argue that McClure took his chances and gambled on room with a 2-5 shot who should have been out and going. I would not concur with that argument. He almost won anyway, he did get through, he was level with the winner but got beat anyway off a soft trip, and most importantly going forward after the wire he took off on a full run when he was let down a bit. I would argue if he pushed him at any point in the race, he would have run and missed the ticket. If he draws back in at this level next time, off that seemingly good line on the page, I will be all over him to play against. Tomboy Strong is one I noted needed to be better to beat a few of these. She wasn't. She was good, maybe even a shade better than last time. But beating Just Business is not the same as beating proven nw2 winners, and she didn't do that this time. She raced well, but in the end, they raced better. She can progress, but as is she is likely better off when the Sires Stakes open in Ohio or the weaker nw conditions appear at the Meadows. She also might be better off with straight fillies and mares. Shock Factor is one I will some credit to here. He was better than I expected. Nevertheless, he was 4th of 7, and of those 3, two don't belong in this class and the other one had a tough trip that took a toll on her late. That is his best case scenario as long as he races here. That opinion has not changed. Calgary Morning was one I was watching here. He was okay I guess, floating out near the back, making no move and coming home evenly while never leaving the pylons to pick up 5th money. It looked like a 2nd qualifier off a layoff where he got paid for showing up. He flashed some ability last year, so he bears watching. They didn't ask here, so I cant say that he is going forward or not until they do that. Dont Chang My Naam was put on the front end this time, and its my view its not her best trip. She had soft fractions, but when challenged she began to wilt, then drift out badly and stop late. Things just didn't go her way this time. As the better ones come out she will find it harder to compete at this level. NW2 in January is not the same as nw2 in April or May. Pats Queen sat last, did nothing, made no moves and faded down the lane. She if fine, but not at this track. My mind is not changed on that, unless she somehow gets back in with maidens.
