Some thoughts.
To get a price, you have to accept certain things at times. This is one of those times.
Young horses make breaks. We all know that. Some of them have immaturity issues that cause them to make mistakes that many grow out of later on. Some find that going speed makes them sore and they regress, like Just Business and Wolfpack Crown and potentially Thor B Good going forward. The equalizer to that is you get paid a premium price to bet those when they have had a period of issues, like Goldie Lux Hanover, Northern Teardrop and Pats Queen in the 3rd race. I am happy to accept those issues if the price justifies it, especially in a race where I can play them in a basket so that I only need one of them to produce. Hanging your hat on just one is tough in that your race can be over before they even start the race. I will be doing that tonight in the 3rd race.
My advice? If you are playing that race in the pick 5, take the ALL option less Love Sensation, who is a clear exclude for me. I would also be inclined to exclude Shes Got Trix, but those types have beaten me before so if you are not willing to take that chance, find a single down the line in the sequence, and two singles ever better, then just spend a few bucks more and include Shes Got Trix to stay alive.
Sometimes its also useful to handicap the handicappers when they give you clues. When they use phrases like "I really can’t trust anyone that much in here" and "I’ll take a swing with" and words like if, might, concern, and worth a look, you know there is a big chance something happens and some longshot comes in. Which one is difficult to figure, but if you play all of them less the one I have concluded is hopeless, you only have to be right about the race, not a specific horse.
Race 3
5 Goldie Lux Hanover better manners last time, taking a stab with her
7 Pats Queen back in with maidens. She needs to start better now.
4 Northern Teardrop longshot chance with good post
8 Solo To Lexington her best is good enough. which one shows up?
1 My Classy Queen improving, slow starts still an issue
6 Hp Fashionista was good last time, short price this time
3 Shez Got Trix win record is what it is.
2 Love Sensation pass on current form.
2 Love Sensation leaves well enough to secure a pretty good trip most nights with these, but the lasix I thought might help her seems to have worn off or just been a mirage, as last time she backpedaled a 1.01.3 half to be well up the track. As she is currently, I have to pass.
4 Northern Teardrop is a 3yo Greenshoe filly out of a Walner mare that has a license to be hot, but showed no signs of that in the qualifier, taking to the back, following along biding her time, moved out and finishing going forward but only evenly. She made 12 starts at 2 and finished 3rd three times to show for that, along with finishing the year making breaks. She also trotted in 58.1 and that would certainly play with this bunch. She only went 2.02 in that qualifier, but she came her own back half in 59.4. From post 4 with a noted aggressive driver like Plante I would expect her to lift off early, assuming she doesn't blow up off the gate. That gives her a longshot chance in with some iffy ones in here.
5 Goldie Lux Hanover is one from my notes that showed edgy and fussiness tendencies in the post parade and in her last 3 lines made a break on the gate. Two of those in races at Mohawk, the last one in a qualifier at Flamboro. Back at Mohawk in the same qualifier as Northern Teardrop and Shes Got Trix, she was well behaved, on the gate and away well, then followed along loosely down the backside, never being asked until the last turn when JJ popped the plugs. She didn't exactly jerk forward, but she went forward briefly before fading a bit down the lane. It appears that they were more concerned about getting her a clean line than asking her to go much, so I can look the other way on a young trotter who was well back of some suspect ones. I will take a shot for a very big price and put her on top, but also knowing that I am taking several like that and any of them will do. I only need one of them.
6 Hp Fashionista was surprisingly good last time, her first life start after taking a long time and many tries to make the races. She did everything right, from a bad starting post, and looked like she was willing to leave but also willing to take back when told to do so. She went a good mile and closed well. However, that was one lifetime start and the price will be much shorter tonight with a good post. I can't make a case against her on form, but I can on value. At 5-2 or less, she is very bad value. If she beats me anyway, I will tip my cap. I will take others in a race where it's a pretty big crapshoot.
7 Pats Queen has won this class, the only one in here to do that. That put her between the rock and the hard place, as she basically had one good night last year, then had more chances against this kind and didn't double up. In her return she had to ply her trade against nw2, the likes of Hercules and Charlie Cheeks, and there were many others that she is overmatched currently by. She went in 58.2 last time, back half in 57.4 on the same card that H P Fashionista went in 2 minutes. For those reasons, on the drop back to straight maidens in a smaller, soft inexperienced field, she is another price horse worth using, although I like others better for the top pick, although top pick is deceptive as I view them as a basket where I only need any or one of those. She needs to get back to starting better like she did last year.
8 Solo To Lexington comes to us from the Hasty Bid connections. To date, Hasty Bid she is not. She was good enough however last year to be sent down to Kentucky to try and get some of that plentiful stakes money they give out, and she did just that, picking up 4th money in 55.2, last quarter in 26.4, with J Mac driving, and also picking up 3rd money with him driving, both at short odds. She qualified back well, finishing fast then deploying the now common two qualifier prep, but things didn't go as well the 2nd time, as she was throwing in steps as the gate picked up speed, then was okay following on the rail, but in the lane again got iffy and jumped it off, then veered sharply out of harms way to the right, only to be trotting strong again coming across the line. In watching her previous qualifier she showed nothing to suggest that she would perform poorly in the 2nd qualifier. The only thing I notice between those two is the condition of the tracks. It wasn't muddy on April 3rd, but it was wet and choppy and that could have been her issue. It was perfect the time before and so was she. As she draws the 8 hole, and comes off that troubling break, perhaps she brings a reasonable price, and that would make her useful in the basket I described earlier. They are calling for rain tonight, and if the track is off, I would like her a lot less with J Mac being more inclined to protect her in those circumstances.
Race 4
1 Tomboy Strong was good last year and has come back to the races good this year. She won first out, had no shot next out, but she was pretty good last time, coming after the leader with the pace against her, yet she held strong in the lane, only beaten by a tripped out sharp one and a heavy favorite who came up the rail when he found room. No shame in getting 3rd that way. J Mac returns here, but both brothers are equally good and sure fire hall of famers. She will meet a proven stakes horse here and another surely on the way to that destiny. She looks as good as both but her price will be better. Shot.
2 Lifting Legend is one I didn't like what I saw from him last week, and J Mac wisely picks over him here. I will watch him this time to see if he does something better. Pass for tonight.
3 Delightful Yankee has shown up and delivered twice now and gets another crack at nw2. By my calculation she can win this race and get in one more time with the age allowance, although she for sure has bigger fish to fry and I doubt they care. She is here to win and she will be a very short price, probably 2-5 but possibly lower. She has only one flaw I've seen so far, and that is a tendency to let up when she gets alone on the lead. McClure is likely well aware of that so he won't be surprised by her doing that again if she does that. Her breeding suggests that she can turn 56.4 last time into 55 flat this time if the track is dry. That likely gets the job done and she is tough to go against in a race with only two I can find that appear capable of taking her down tonight.
4 Southwind Manhattn is one I have rated as finding the right trip in this class one time and winning tripped out. Tonight doesn't appear to be that night as Delightful Yankee alone looks like too much pony for her to handle. She can get a slice though depending on the trip she does get and if she is a bit better tonight. She showed leaving last time although that didn't end up working out, at least she put another tool in the toolbox.
5 Shock Factor was better than expected last time, but still no threat to the contenders. He still lost ground in the lane and I expect, at best, a similar result here. Pass for me.
6 My Ghost comes back to the races with a nice resume. She broke her maiden in 57.2 last year, and finished 2nd in the Harvest final in similar time while showing up and doing well every week. She returns now with a good post, in a soft field bar the bearcat in the making and the rail horse who showed similar potential to My Ghost last year and has raced very well so far this season. The rest don't stack up. Her qualifier was good, not spectacular, but that is all it had to be as she is proven and has nothing to prove in a prep like that. She is likely prepping for the Sire Stakes, but that is at least a month away and I see no reason not to try and race her to win tonight, hoping to make the early lead and let Delightful Yankee cover her up. Anything can happen in a race, so if she gets that trip, and Delightful Yankee waits on her, she has a minor shot to take her late for a decent price.
7 Hobnob Hanover is what she is. Nuff said. No shot. Maybe she gets 5th money again in here. I see 3 she can beat if that works out.
8 Dont Chang My Naam was out on the front last time for some reason, when it looks like that is not a good trip for her. She paid the price for that when Tomboy Strong ground her down, drifting off the rail badly in the lane and missing a cheque. Now she is even wider out, and meets some even saltier ones. Take back and come late for a slice seems more logical here. Pass on the win for me.
9 Mikes Tony ships in from London off a win, by a nose, and even if she had a good post here I would be hard pressed to pick her to make the ticket against some of these. The 9 hole makes it easy for me to toss her.
Race 7
2 Had To Know wasn't much of anything last year, but now came to this circuit looking to build some momentum as he learns the game. Unfortunately, he ran headlong into the buzzsaw that is two 10 holes to start the season. I don't see him yet, but I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt this time that he can start better, keep up and possibly bag a decent slice. Lets see if he takes advantage of this better post and weak field. I have to know if he is capable before I start playing him.
3 Switch, the ML favorite and likely lukewarm post time favorite seems to have found his groove with good leaving ability and some consistency to his effort. If he repeats his last he has a big shot. He has shown spotty gait in the past and therefore I will be watching to see what he looks like in the flesh before I make the call on his actual chances tonight. I like another anyway for value, so I'd be happy to think he blows up at short odds and makes it easier on that one to score.
4 Green Grass Grows qualified well but is one I did not like when I saw him parade last time and he verified that by rolling into a break and being distanced. As the last few weeks have unfolded I am getting a bad impression of the sire Green Manalishi. He has a handful of very good ones, and then a truckload like this one. That doesn't mean some won't win, especially at this level, but they don't get much of a benefit of the doubt from me unless they prove they are trending towards being one of the better ones and not the winless hangers and non-triers I see as the bigger trend. He comes right back here, but he is another that will have to show me something different in the post parade. I'm inclined to pass on him as I write this.
5 Zillennial is the key to this race for me. He is a 3yo who is 0 for 12 lifetime but now changes connections. New owner, new trainer, and a new driver. Roy is an upgrade on Young, but Young is perfectly fine and gave this one every shot last time but he still didn't go forward near the end of the mile last time. Roy wouldn't have gotten any more out of him then. Watching him parade before that race, he looked fine. Sound, straight, willing. He left well, and then lucked into an easy trip where the chalk took off running off the gate, the next best one made the front and then took off running on the last turn, and that left him sitting in the pocket on a leader going forward but drifting out badly to allow him up the rail without even having to steer him or stick handle. When push came to shove, he didn't finish well. I also noted he had one of those nose patches some trainers use to help them breathe. Some those can help, but mostly, it's the guys like Auciello, and most Mohawk regulars who have access to high end breathing help that fix that problem, to the extent it can be fixed. So, that is the key change here. The barn change. Roy wont hurt, of course. He is a world class driver. Can they, together, get two more seconds out of him and win this race? I think they can and I will bet on that. Back in the day, when I was training, I didn't really use that high end stuff, but I had one that I thought might need it, a bleeder who wasn't helped by lasix, so I found a way to get it, and down the lane, it gave him just enough to capitalize on a trip just like Zillenial got last time. It works. On some of them, for a while anyway. Tonight could be this horse's night.
6 Dulces Suenos Deo missed some time before his last start and was raced conservatively, which they do anyway most nights with him. That race was basically a paid qualifier and he delivered 900 bucks for his connections by doing what he does most nights anyway. Even by his standards, these are very soft and beatable. Of course there are 27 times in the last two years you could have made that comment and have him come up short. I will use him underneath my preferred value play here as a backup if I am wrong about that one. At almost 60k, I think its probably time they will think about winning and starting the cycle over again in nw2, a la Hobnob Hanover.
7 Talbot Patriot will aim to hit for the cycle tonight if he can bag 6th place. There will come a time and place where he improves enough to win a race somewhere. Maybe here, but I doubt it. Kawartha is more likely and Grand River isn't out of the question. At this track he continues to improve in very small increments but not enough to gain my confidence. Lets see him contend to the wire for 3rd or 4th money.
8 Ilovemesometacos is the stablemate to the one above. He now has two flat lines in a row to his credit, which is certainly progress for him. He finished better last time and netted his first purse cheque as well as taking his overall time down to a level that does play with these. However, now he draws the 8 hole and he needs to start better anyway. I count at least 5 to his inside he isn't beating off the car unless they jump it off. I don't see him passing them all at this point, so I will rate him a shot at a better smaller slice this time.
Race 8
2 Green Nineteen presents a nice program page and is certainly capable with this bunch. His issue is not doing enough down the lane even off pretty soft trips. Like all of those kind, he will find that trip one night and do just enough to score. You would think the plan this time is to blast off and let only one brush to the top, and try his luck again with a trip like that. Short odds though is not muy bueno for me here, just as it wasn't last time. Minimum 3-1 for me or else I will take my chances against him again. He has the MO of a money burner brewing.
3 Maggies Touch returns missing 7 weeks now and no qualifier to show what she has been up to. With only 5 starts last year at 4, and 5 this year at 5, a total of 10 starts in 16 months is a troubling sign. I want to see her parade, but on paper she is a pass until she gets back on a decent rotation.
4 Trudybird is the one I will go to on top here. She has never been very reliable on the win front, but after a poor finish to last year, and a bad start to this one, she was okay last time. It seems to me like the trainer is tinkering with her, and P Mac is a good driver to deploy when you are doing that, in that he doesn't make a living anymore as a catch driver, so he is willing to bring her along. She did a little more last time, got her overall time back in range and now picks up Mark MacDonald, who is known to get more out of these types. She is 6-1 ML, and I'd be looking for closer to 8-1 and 10-1 would be even more enticing. I'll take a shot with her tonight as nothing really thrills me in this bunch.
5 Sherlyn Hanover got the job done last time, beating an assortment of no good ones and professional maidens, going to the top, backing down the half, staying flat this time and holding her margin to the wire. Now she meets the ones who were already at this level, many have shown much more speed than her. I'm sure she has more, but is it enough? I don't think so yet. I will watch her this time and play others.
6 Green Moni Queen returns from a winter layoff. She showed decent class last year, winning twice from 8 starts, hanging out in the Grassroots and making the final, picking up slices near the end but drawing bad in her last two starts. What is not on the page is that she started out with 2 wins and a 2nd in the Grassroots then tried the Peaceful Way which might have been too ambitious. She took her 56.2 record just before that at Mohawk in a Grassroots leg then went about the same mile in the Peaceful Way but faded badly chasing Grand Circuit fillies who could trot in 53. I am on the fence with her tonight, as she has the obvious ability to go with these, but in her qualifier she cut the mile with very reasonable fractions but stopped badly down the lane and drifted out, finishing badly in 31.4 and I don't see any lasix added here. Maybe she had a bad day. Maybe the Peaceful Way experience gutted her and she is washed up. Who knows? I'd use her at a big price as Team Steacy is on a roll right now.
7 Check Master gets a bone from the race office and moves back down to nw2. It's something they have done a lot of lately as they are short of horses and many of the ones who received that favor needed it. For this guy, I take a pass on him anyway. His previous two before his last have indicated to me that he has issues that are piling up. Three back he didn't look right and jumped right before the start. Two back he was going right by Wolfpack Crown off a sweet trip when he was very steppy, rocky, and surely jumping it off if not steadied. Until I see something moving in the other direction he doesn't play for me. Roy also picked over him, so there is that as well.
8 Southview Abraham just barely got up for 5th money last time on the line. He draws the 8 hole here. Very hard pass for me.
1 My Classy Queen is coming along. She picked up fourth money last time, closing well and taking her overall time down. Her slow starts though continue to compromise her chances. Seeing as her boxcar odds are now likely gone, at least for this start, I will watch her here to see if she progresses to getting closer to the pack before she unleashes a stretch kick. She can certainly hit the bottom of the ticket if everything goes right.
2 Love Sensation leaves well enough to secure a pretty good trip most nights with these, but the lasix I thought might help her seems to have worn off or just been a mirage, as last time she backpedaled a 1.01.3 half to be well up the track. As she is currently, I have to pass.
She has been less than sensational in her short career to this point. No love from me here.
3 Shez Got Trix brings 0 for 23 to this table tonight. Since she was last seen around here making breaks, her last 2 in a row and 3 of her last 4 racelines, she was forced to qualify. I know who wins a qualifier doesn't mean anything, as many of those the runner up isn't even being urged or interested in trying to win, still, getting beat by Bad Lil B at London in 2.06 is not good, and beating Dream For Peace last time at this track are both meaningless. What does matter is she is batting zero when trying to win real races and she makes breaks. There are enough contenders without a record of that futility that I will go against her here. If she has got those tricks, she might want to pull that rabbit out of the hat tonight.
4 Northern Teardrop is a 3yo Greenshoe filly out of a Walner mare that has a license to be hot, but showed no signs of that in the qualifier, taking to the back, following along biding her time, moved out and finishing going forward but only evenly. She made 12 starts at 2 and finished 3rd three times to show for that, along with finishing the year making breaks. She also trotted in 58.1 and that would certainly play with this bunch. She only went 2.02 in that qualifier, but she came her own back half in 59.4. From post 4 with a noted aggressive driver like Plante I would expect her to lift off early, assuming she doesn't blow up off the gate. That gives her a longshot chance in with some iffy ones in here.
5 Goldie Lux Hanover is one from my notes that showed edgy and fussiness tendencies in the post parade and in her last 3 lines made a break on the gate. Two of those in races at Mohawk, the last one in a qualifier at Flamboro. Back at Mohawk in the same qualifier as Northern Teardrop and Shes Got Trix, she was well behaved, on the gate and away well, then followed along loosely down the backside, never being asked until the last turn when JJ popped the plugs. She didn't exactly jerk forward, but she went forward briefly before fading a bit down the lane. It appears that they were more concerned about getting her a clean line than asking her to go much, so I can look the other way on a young trotter who was well back of some suspect ones. I will take a shot for a very big price and put her on top, but also knowing that I am taking several like that and any of them will do. I only need one of them.
6 Hp Fashionista was surprisingly good last time, her first life start after taking a long time and many tries to make the races. She did everything right, from a bad starting post, and looked like she was willing to leave but also willing to take back when told to do so. She went a good mile and closed well. However, that was one lifetime start and the price will be much shorter tonight with a good post. I can't make a case against her on form, but I can on value. At 5-2 or less, she is very bad value. If she beats me anyway, I will tip my cap. I will take others in a race where it's a pretty big crapshoot.
7 Pats Queen has won this class, the only one in here to do that. That put her between the rock and the hard place, as she basically had one good night last year, then had more chances against this kind and didn't double up. In her return she had to ply her trade against nw2, the likes of Hercules and Charlie Cheeks, and there were many others that she is overmatched currently by. She went in 58.2 last time, back half in 57.4 on the same card that H P Fashionista went in 2 minutes. For those reasons, on the drop back to straight maidens in a smaller, soft inexperienced field, she is another price horse worth using, although I like others better for the top pick, although top pick is deceptive as I view them as a basket where I only need any or one of those. She needs to get back to starting better like she did last year.
8 Solo To Lexington comes to us from the Hasty Bid connections. To date, Hasty Bid she is not. She was good enough however last year to be sent down to Kentucky to try and get some of that plentiful stakes money they give out, and she did just that, picking up 4th money in 55.2, last quarter in 26.4, with J Mac driving, and also picking up 3rd money with him driving, both at short odds. She qualified back well, finishing fast then deploying the now common two qualifier prep, but things didn't go as well the 2nd time, as she was throwing in steps as the gate picked up speed, then was okay following on the rail, but in the lane again got iffy and jumped it off, then veered sharply out of harms way to the right, only to be trotting strong again coming across the line. In watching her previous qualifier she showed nothing to suggest that she would perform poorly in the 2nd qualifier. The only thing I notice between those two is the condition of the tracks. It wasn't muddy on April 3rd, but it was wet and choppy and that could have been her issue. It was perfect the time before and so was she. As she draws the 8 hole, and comes off that troubling break, perhaps she brings a reasonable price, and that would make her useful in the basket I described earlier. They are calling for rain tonight, and if the track is off, I would like her a lot less with J Mac being more inclined to protect her in those circumstances.
Race 4
6 My Ghost proven last year. I'll take the better price
3 Delightful Yankee tough to go against. Very short price this time.
1 Tomboy Strong can get it done if things go her way. Price play.
4 Southwind Manhattn in deep but if one falters she can make ticket.
8 Dont Chang My Naam changing tactics give her a shot at 4th money.
5 Shock Factor pass for me.
7 Hobnob Hanover no shot for win.
2 Lifting Legend pass for tonight. Need to see a lot more.
9 Mikes Tony toss for me.
1 Tomboy Strong was good last year and has come back to the races good this year. She won first out, had no shot next out, but she was pretty good last time, coming after the leader with the pace against her, yet she held strong in the lane, only beaten by a tripped out sharp one and a heavy favorite who came up the rail when he found room. No shame in getting 3rd that way. J Mac returns here, but both brothers are equally good and sure fire hall of famers. She will meet a proven stakes horse here and another surely on the way to that destiny. She looks as good as both but her price will be better. Shot.
2 Lifting Legend is one I didn't like what I saw from him last week, and J Mac wisely picks over him here. I will watch him this time to see if he does something better. Pass for tonight.
3 Delightful Yankee has shown up and delivered twice now and gets another crack at nw2. By my calculation she can win this race and get in one more time with the age allowance, although she for sure has bigger fish to fry and I doubt they care. She is here to win and she will be a very short price, probably 2-5 but possibly lower. She has only one flaw I've seen so far, and that is a tendency to let up when she gets alone on the lead. McClure is likely well aware of that so he won't be surprised by her doing that again if she does that. Her breeding suggests that she can turn 56.4 last time into 55 flat this time if the track is dry. That likely gets the job done and she is tough to go against in a race with only two I can find that appear capable of taking her down tonight.
4 Southwind Manhattn is one I have rated as finding the right trip in this class one time and winning tripped out. Tonight doesn't appear to be that night as Delightful Yankee alone looks like too much pony for her to handle. She can get a slice though depending on the trip she does get and if she is a bit better tonight. She showed leaving last time although that didn't end up working out, at least she put another tool in the toolbox.
5 Shock Factor was better than expected last time, but still no threat to the contenders. He still lost ground in the lane and I expect, at best, a similar result here. Pass for me.
6 My Ghost comes back to the races with a nice resume. She broke her maiden in 57.2 last year, and finished 2nd in the Harvest final in similar time while showing up and doing well every week. She returns now with a good post, in a soft field bar the bearcat in the making and the rail horse who showed similar potential to My Ghost last year and has raced very well so far this season. The rest don't stack up. Her qualifier was good, not spectacular, but that is all it had to be as she is proven and has nothing to prove in a prep like that. She is likely prepping for the Sire Stakes, but that is at least a month away and I see no reason not to try and race her to win tonight, hoping to make the early lead and let Delightful Yankee cover her up. Anything can happen in a race, so if she gets that trip, and Delightful Yankee waits on her, she has a minor shot to take her late for a decent price.
7 Hobnob Hanover is what she is. Nuff said. No shot. Maybe she gets 5th money again in here. I see 3 she can beat if that works out.
8 Dont Chang My Naam was out on the front last time for some reason, when it looks like that is not a good trip for her. She paid the price for that when Tomboy Strong ground her down, drifting off the rail badly in the lane and missing a cheque. Now she is even wider out, and meets some even saltier ones. Take back and come late for a slice seems more logical here. Pass on the win for me.
9 Mikes Tony ships in from London off a win, by a nose, and even if she had a good post here I would be hard pressed to pick her to make the ticket against some of these. The 9 hole makes it easy for me to toss her.
Race 7
5 Zillennial important changes can turn him around for a price.
6 Dulces Suenos Deo is going to win eventually. Right back this time
3 Switch, the type you don't like taking a short price on.
8 Ilovemesometacos can get a small piece this time. Post hurts.
1 Coolcalmncollected can leave. Can he finish?
4 Green Grass Grows needs to be a lot better this time.
7 Talbot Patriot still doesn't finish well enough to entice me.
2 Had To Know gets the better post this time. Will it help?
1 Coolcalmncollected has proven to be a good leaver in his two starts since surfacing. He is also willing to follow, so he can get a good trip most nights. Now he needs to add some finishing power to the recipe. Coming back halves in 1.02, even with these suspect prospects is not a winning recipe. This is about the weakest bunch he will ever find, top to bottom. Its not out of the question that he adds that here. For a price, he is usable.
2 Had To Know wasn't much of anything last year, but now came to this circuit looking to build some momentum as he learns the game. Unfortunately, he ran headlong into the buzzsaw that is two 10 holes to start the season. I don't see him yet, but I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt this time that he can start better, keep up and possibly bag a decent slice. Lets see if he takes advantage of this better post and weak field. I have to know if he is capable before I start playing him.
3 Switch, the ML favorite and likely lukewarm post time favorite seems to have found his groove with good leaving ability and some consistency to his effort. If he repeats his last he has a big shot. He has shown spotty gait in the past and therefore I will be watching to see what he looks like in the flesh before I make the call on his actual chances tonight. I like another anyway for value, so I'd be happy to think he blows up at short odds and makes it easier on that one to score.
4 Green Grass Grows qualified well but is one I did not like when I saw him parade last time and he verified that by rolling into a break and being distanced. As the last few weeks have unfolded I am getting a bad impression of the sire Green Manalishi. He has a handful of very good ones, and then a truckload like this one. That doesn't mean some won't win, especially at this level, but they don't get much of a benefit of the doubt from me unless they prove they are trending towards being one of the better ones and not the winless hangers and non-triers I see as the bigger trend. He comes right back here, but he is another that will have to show me something different in the post parade. I'm inclined to pass on him as I write this.
5 Zillennial is the key to this race for me. He is a 3yo who is 0 for 12 lifetime but now changes connections. New owner, new trainer, and a new driver. Roy is an upgrade on Young, but Young is perfectly fine and gave this one every shot last time but he still didn't go forward near the end of the mile last time. Roy wouldn't have gotten any more out of him then. Watching him parade before that race, he looked fine. Sound, straight, willing. He left well, and then lucked into an easy trip where the chalk took off running off the gate, the next best one made the front and then took off running on the last turn, and that left him sitting in the pocket on a leader going forward but drifting out badly to allow him up the rail without even having to steer him or stick handle. When push came to shove, he didn't finish well. I also noted he had one of those nose patches some trainers use to help them breathe. Some those can help, but mostly, it's the guys like Auciello, and most Mohawk regulars who have access to high end breathing help that fix that problem, to the extent it can be fixed. So, that is the key change here. The barn change. Roy wont hurt, of course. He is a world class driver. Can they, together, get two more seconds out of him and win this race? I think they can and I will bet on that. Back in the day, when I was training, I didn't really use that high end stuff, but I had one that I thought might need it, a bleeder who wasn't helped by lasix, so I found a way to get it, and down the lane, it gave him just enough to capitalize on a trip just like Zillenial got last time. It works. On some of them, for a while anyway. Tonight could be this horse's night.
6 Dulces Suenos Deo missed some time before his last start and was raced conservatively, which they do anyway most nights with him. That race was basically a paid qualifier and he delivered 900 bucks for his connections by doing what he does most nights anyway. Even by his standards, these are very soft and beatable. Of course there are 27 times in the last two years you could have made that comment and have him come up short. I will use him underneath my preferred value play here as a backup if I am wrong about that one. At almost 60k, I think its probably time they will think about winning and starting the cycle over again in nw2, a la Hobnob Hanover.
7 Talbot Patriot will aim to hit for the cycle tonight if he can bag 6th place. There will come a time and place where he improves enough to win a race somewhere. Maybe here, but I doubt it. Kawartha is more likely and Grand River isn't out of the question. At this track he continues to improve in very small increments but not enough to gain my confidence. Lets see him contend to the wire for 3rd or 4th money.
8 Ilovemesometacos is the stablemate to the one above. He now has two flat lines in a row to his credit, which is certainly progress for him. He finished better last time and netted his first purse cheque as well as taking his overall time down to a level that does play with these. However, now he draws the 8 hole and he needs to start better anyway. I count at least 5 to his inside he isn't beating off the car unless they jump it off. I don't see him passing them all at this point, so I will rate him a shot at a better smaller slice this time.
Race 8
4 Trudybird call the upset. Trending well plus driver upgrade.
1 Rico Tubbs last was good. Big shot. Price is gone.
2 Green Nineteen has to show more grit. Possible.
6 Green Moni Queen bad impression in qualifier. Was good last year.
5 Sherlyn Hanover steps up. I like others but she is promising.
7 Check Master class drop break. Last few show me trouble.
8 Southview Abraham very hard pass for me.
3 Maggies Touch will have to be seen.
1 Rico Tubbs was solid last time, behaving, laying back, making a noticeable wide move from the back and up for 2nd and possibly could have beaten the winner if he had been closer up. These don't look any tougher, and arguably softer without the winner he avoids from last time. Some of these trot in 56, so he will have to find another second for the win spot. With his breeding and winning some stakes last year I don't see that to be a problem. Big shot.
2 Green Nineteen presents a nice program page and is certainly capable with this bunch. His issue is not doing enough down the lane even off pretty soft trips. Like all of those kind, he will find that trip one night and do just enough to score. You would think the plan this time is to blast off and let only one brush to the top, and try his luck again with a trip like that. Short odds though is not muy bueno for me here, just as it wasn't last time. Minimum 3-1 for me or else I will take my chances against him again. He has the MO of a money burner brewing.
3 Maggies Touch returns missing 7 weeks now and no qualifier to show what she has been up to. With only 5 starts last year at 4, and 5 this year at 5, a total of 10 starts in 16 months is a troubling sign. I want to see her parade, but on paper she is a pass until she gets back on a decent rotation.
4 Trudybird is the one I will go to on top here. She has never been very reliable on the win front, but after a poor finish to last year, and a bad start to this one, she was okay last time. It seems to me like the trainer is tinkering with her, and P Mac is a good driver to deploy when you are doing that, in that he doesn't make a living anymore as a catch driver, so he is willing to bring her along. She did a little more last time, got her overall time back in range and now picks up Mark MacDonald, who is known to get more out of these types. She is 6-1 ML, and I'd be looking for closer to 8-1 and 10-1 would be even more enticing. I'll take a shot with her tonight as nothing really thrills me in this bunch.
5 Sherlyn Hanover got the job done last time, beating an assortment of no good ones and professional maidens, going to the top, backing down the half, staying flat this time and holding her margin to the wire. Now she meets the ones who were already at this level, many have shown much more speed than her. I'm sure she has more, but is it enough? I don't think so yet. I will watch her this time and play others.
6 Green Moni Queen returns from a winter layoff. She showed decent class last year, winning twice from 8 starts, hanging out in the Grassroots and making the final, picking up slices near the end but drawing bad in her last two starts. What is not on the page is that she started out with 2 wins and a 2nd in the Grassroots then tried the Peaceful Way which might have been too ambitious. She took her 56.2 record just before that at Mohawk in a Grassroots leg then went about the same mile in the Peaceful Way but faded badly chasing Grand Circuit fillies who could trot in 53. I am on the fence with her tonight, as she has the obvious ability to go with these, but in her qualifier she cut the mile with very reasonable fractions but stopped badly down the lane and drifted out, finishing badly in 31.4 and I don't see any lasix added here. Maybe she had a bad day. Maybe the Peaceful Way experience gutted her and she is washed up. Who knows? I'd use her at a big price as Team Steacy is on a roll right now.
7 Check Master gets a bone from the race office and moves back down to nw2. It's something they have done a lot of lately as they are short of horses and many of the ones who received that favor needed it. For this guy, I take a pass on him anyway. His previous two before his last have indicated to me that he has issues that are piling up. Three back he didn't look right and jumped right before the start. Two back he was going right by Wolfpack Crown off a sweet trip when he was very steppy, rocky, and surely jumping it off if not steadied. Until I see something moving in the other direction he doesn't play for me. Roy also picked over him, so there is that as well.
8 Southview Abraham just barely got up for 5th money last time on the line. He draws the 8 hole here. Very hard pass for me.
