Some thoughts.
Spots and trade offs.
Sometimes it's just as simple as admitting the favorite is just too tough for a bunch and not going against that one. That is what I see with Elbows Up tonight. Would I take 1-5 on Elbows Up? God no. But I wouldn't try to beat her either. If she jogs, she jogs. If she blows up, she blows up. Trotters do that sometimes. Good race to just watch and make more notes. I would think the happy medium is an exactor bet where you try to beat the 2nd choice out of the exactor, and play it as a box, so that if Elbows Up blows up, you do get that bigger return. Otherwise, you hope to break even being right on something else.
2 Elbows Up right now, too tough and too good for these
6 Press On Ballykeel likely pocket sitter, needs a trip.
3 Feel Like A Woman seems to be getting slightly better, shot at 2nd
4 Kennedy Hanover good enough if she doesn't blow up,so far she does
1 Stonebridge Chips she needs to finish a lot better.
5 Acrobatic form is awful. Cant use her at this point
1 Stonebridge Chips continues to try different tactics to no avail. Leave and cut. Leave out and sit. Take back. First up. It all adds up to a filly who can't finish, especially with proven winners like Elbows Up. I dont see where she wins this race. At some point they will find the sweet spot and she will come on to be viable for the exotics. I don't see that time as now.
2 Elbows Up came ready to rock last time and dominated. I don't see any of these going with her if she brings what she did last time. Since she didn't seem overly stressed or used hard, I have to think she is going to be very tough to beat this time and has the fear factor in her favor to discourage any of these of going after her. She would have to make a mistake on her own. I don't see that.
3 Feel Like A Woman was better last time, but still only trotted in 59 and came too late to even make the ticket. With a bunch like this, 2nd money is not out of the question, but 3rd or 4th is more likely.
4 Kennedy Hanover blew up. Again. Qualified. Again. One of these days this horse will get her act together. It could be today. It could be 6 months from now. I dont think anybody really knows. The talent appears there. I'd throw her in my exactor box and if she runs, she doesn't hurt you either way.
5 Acrobatic is the one I will exclude tonight. To include something like Kennedy Hanover, you have to exclude something else and use that spot with something of value. I just see Acrobatic as going the wrong way and I don't see that car making an abrupt U-Turn here.
6 Press On Ballykeel was good last time but seems to need a trip to finish, so, Borth buried her and waited for room which finally came deep in the lane and she was up for 2nd. Now she meets an even tougher one who currently I don't think she can beat. I think she can beat the entire field to the pocket trip behind Elbows Up, and anything can happen in a race. She could take her if Elbows Up has a bad night, but she is also the type that might lose 2nd money to something coming late. I believe she will be better as the season goes on, but for tonight I rate her second best with the chance to go either way from that spot.
Race 9
2 R Halo ability is there. Needs to start clean and better.
5 Blue Rare J Macs choice. She is consistent and that is something.
6 Bella Chica not sold that she can do it again. Play against.
4 Upgrade okay for 3rd or 4th. Don't like her for the win.
3 Just Business can she trot the turns this time?
1 Misty Vodka maiden facing proven, faster winners this time.
1 Misty Vodka is a maiden after 12 lifetime starts who tries her luck her in this series against winners. She shows signs she is better than she has proven to this point, but still there are others who are far ahead of her in terms of speed and winning ability. She had no excuse last time when she let another pass her and trot away. I like others at this point. Lets see her get to the 58 range and then maybe she is viable for the final if she shows up again.
2 R Halo was handled carefully last time by JJ, and rightfully so considering her mistakes to this point. When moved and asked she picked up a clear 2nd to Elbows Up who she avoids this time. She has the clean line now so she is pretty much in the final. Time to race her this time. I will go to her on top as I'm not sold yet on the consistency of Bella Chica and really don't like much here otherwise. She has to get off the gate clean and do it a bit faster this time.
3 Just Business has the ability, but until she can trot the turns she gives away too much to win at this track since she won the maiden race by lucking into a breaker who handed her an easy win. If somehow she can find a way this time she is capable of making me eat this words. I have said it 4 times in a row now and the first 3 times she has proved me right.
4 Upgrade is not one I can back until I see some fight for the win when she is engaged. She was lucky to hold 3rd money last time when she was on the lead from a 1.01.1 middle half. She just doesn't do enough.
5 Blue Rare raced okay last time but overall she was disappointing in that she had 2nd money but faded down the lane. You could argue that she is rounding into form, and his consistency on her side. Both the 2 and 6 have issues with blowing up. If they both were to blow up, she could fall into the win spot here. That isn't likely, but it's not impossible either.
6 Bella Chica was very good last time and she was surprisingly being bet like that was a sure thing. She was 10-1 ML, but right from the get go she was being bet like a clear favorite and went off as such. When she pulled first up it was clear she was going to take down the leader, and she just kept right on going once she did that. J Mac sticks with Blue Rare here, which is curious, but even if he had taken her, I'm not sold yet on a mare that made that many breaks doing it once. I will play against her here and hope she takes a lot of money and drives my price value up on R Halo. On straight speed last week both Blue Rare and R Halo went faster than she did.
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