Race 3
3 P L Talladega ability is there. Playing the rebound angle for a price.
6 Up To No Gouda changed hands. Still looks live and has a big shot.
1 Dream For Peace perhaps not as favorable trip. Legit, but beatable.
5 Fourth Gear price play if you think he can go forward off last time.
4 Beau Knight wait and see approach with him first out.
2 Thor B Good troubling signs in his last mile. Pass for tonight.
7 Century Massiah over his head with this bunch. Pass.
8 Switch seems like he should stick with maidens for now. Hard pass.
1 Dream For Peace was MTB last time when an early scratch plus a risky one blew up on the gate left him with an easy path to the front and a very easy score. I'm not certain he starts as well tonight from the rail. He could fall into a less than favorable trip and I will use him in the multi legs but think he is very beatable in this spot at a short price.
2 Thor B Good has raced well in his two lifetime starts, but he started to show some troubling signs last time in how he travelled and after the wire. Relative to his resume, this is not a soft bunch. I will pass on his chances tonight and watch to see which direction I think he is going.
3 P L Talladega blew up last time, as he seems prone to do. It just seems to me that he tries too hard at this stage and it's a maturity issue. As such, he can easily turn the tables here for a price. I will play him as such.
4 Beau Knight was fairly solid and consistent last year, taking a win in 9 starts and making the board in 5 of 9, while keeping fairly tough company. He didn't end off the year great, and that happens with young trotters. Six months later and he comes into this series with two qualifiers. He showed the type of speed he will need with the contenders in here last year, so really it's about the impression he makes parading and scoring down. From his 2nd qualifier he was a bit grabby off the gate, on the right line in the last turn and running in a bit in the stretch. He shows being inside the pylons in his last start last year, so that can be an issue for him. He seemed to also be out of gas on the line as the ones behind him were closing in on him. I will take a wait and see approach with him.
5 Fourth Gear raced okay last week in his seasonal debut, and was getting to Thor B Good late. He has a shot if he builds off that mile and the rail horse isn't as good as last week. He is a decent price play if you think it can go that way.
6 Up To No Gouda did not race at 2 and has been brought along relatively slowly this winter, with only 7 starts. It appears McClure sold this guy to Dupuis since he was scratched last Saturday. In any event, he is in to go here and needs to get a good result to make the final and have a shot. He is a maiden, but he has shown he is likely not a maiden much longer once he gets back in with those if he doesn't win in this series. From this post you would think he is blasting off and either cutting it or sitting in the pocket. He has a big shot if he can get the jump on the rail horse, but he isn't my top choice as I see the 3 horse as better value, although much riskier than this guy.
7 Century Massiah is racing well. But he is still a maiden after 13 starts and last week he was all out to get 4th money, no threat to the top 3 whom he meets again. I can't use him in with this bunch. Pass for now. I like his chances back in with maidens when that happens.
8 Switch is pretty much where Century Massiah is, but he has a worst post and is not trotting as fast. Hard pass on this one tonight.
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