April 11, 2026 Mohawk

 Some thoughts.

Only one race today on a big Saturday card.
Why is that?
For me it's simply a time and opportunity thing.
First and foremost, I like to be very thorough and take all the factors in.
When I did Monday's card, I didn't record all my time spent on it, but it had to be 10 hours minimum for the entire card, which was only 5 races. That includes going over the program for anything I can see in general, especially horses I don't know well or at all like shippers or returning horses off layoffs, marking videos I will have to look up and watch, looking back at my previous notes, write ups and then a complete race review, watching every horse for the entire mile to go along with a very thorough post parade viewing. That is part of having notes for next time. That's why I record the post parade and study it. It matters with all horses. Even more with just trotters and especially with young trotters. As I said on Monday, every day is another day. I said that about Charlie Cheeks and The Hitman Heart, and I was correct about that. A horse that parades good today might not look so good next time, and vice versa.
For those 10 hours, if I did all the races I would spend probably 30 minutes per race. That isn't enough for me. At my age, that isn't practical anymore, nor doable. Or desirable. Nor useful. Two hours times 5 is reasonable, and as I go forward and have a better read on most of the horses, there is less I have to do on most of the ones I know and more time I can allot to the newer ones.
I love the pacers and I don't mind the condition type horses that is most racing. But most people can figure out pacers and that means there isn't much price value to picking from them. That comes down to basically trip, class, speed and current form. After reviewing my history, I noted my best return was always on trotters, and mostly on young trotters. That is for two reasons.

It's all about homework.
It takes a lot of work to get a good read on a trotter. So many little things can set them off on the wrong track. And conversely, as I noted in my review on Monday, not being 100% thorough on a horse like Kinnder Icecube can come back to get you when they turn it right back around and you didn't put the work in to see that. It's just a time thing. That horse was the 8 horse, near the end of the card, and if you use your time to handicap every race, you waste the time you will need to do more in the races you should do that work. Also, it's just tiring and you have to manage your workload. It's as simple as that.
In brief, from the first day I ever went to the races, trotters have always been hard, variable, scary to figure out and in some ways, avoidable.
Being variable is an advantage, not a roadblock.  Wolfpack Crown, Charlie Cheeks, Just Business, these are just a few examples lately where on paper they had very good form but they were bad value for reasons I laid out in my pre race commentary after I had done some homework on them. That is homework I wouldn't have done if time and energy didn't permit.

What I don't want to do is spend all that time on a bunch of nw pacers only to have that be mostly a waste of time. Wasting time means wasting money when your time is well spent and worth something.
Good form, especially with trotters, is generally bad value. That sounds counter intuitive, but it's true.
When you start from that premise, if you agree with that, you are already ahead of the game. It's just a matter then of having the time to actualize that and find good value in those with okay form who might benefit from that, like The Hitman Heart and Hercules.
So yeah, today only one race fits my now criteria of focusing my complete energy on just young trotters, which means nw1, nw2, young trotters in series, and when the season gets going, Sire Stakes and Grand Circuit stakes. And not just at Mohawk, but all over. And that includes studying pedigrees, listening to interviews and watching qualifiers. One race on one day, but lots of prep work for races to come when days are slower like this.
On this day, one race, but 6 qualifiers to watch and review for a coming video. It adds up and you have to be smart and tactical in how you use that time.
Time management. Basically.

​Different isn't always hard. Its just different. And its not actually that hard if you are willing to do that work. Its extremely hard if you are not willing to put the time in.

Race 4

7 Dream For Peace  first start back, has some class and speed

5 Up To No Gouda ​improving but still a maiden facing winners

9 Thor B Good bad post hurts here and he meets tougher

6 P L Talladega ​looks live, but the type that gets beat here.

3 Fourth Gear​ has some upside. He will have to be seen.

2 Stardust Joe​ has some upside. looks like he needs one

1 Century Massiah good form, needs to stick with maidens

4 Thrufireandflames​ doesn't look fast enough for these 

8 Wheeler Seelster ​should be in a maiden from what I can see

10 Chip King​ hard pass for me tonight. Don't see him at all.

1 Century Massiah made a nice impression on Monday night and raced solid to be 3rd. However, he is still a maiden after 12 starts facing 3 winners in here who all look farther along and likely better horses than he is. He is good enough to make the bottom of the ticket and certainly get a slice if he gets a protected trip and comes late. Watching him for future plays but doesn't look like a winner in this field.

2 Stardust Joe​ made 7 starts at 2, all in the Grassroots races, culminating by drawing the 9 hole in the final where he really had no chance. He didn't win last year, but he showed some ability, trotting in 57 several times. Now spending his winter down South training back he ships up north and arrives with Team Henry calling the shots. In his two prepping qualifiers he is listed as not having hopples but will race with them tonight as he did all last year. He made a break in the 2nd qualifier without the hopples, so possibly they tried that but will go right back to the steadiness that they can provide here. He will have to be seen but I would think he needs one regardless.

3 Fourth Gear​ is a stablemate to Stardust Joe and arrives with him in the barn of Team Henry. He raced 8 times at 2 without winning but took a different approach than his stablemate, starting out in the Prospect series then a straight maiden, then to the Grassroots where he appeared not good enough then back to the maidens where he was marginal and began making breaks and one try in the Harvest series making a break to be shut down for the winter but retained for another season. He is by Archangel, and they can be tricky but most of them show good speed and can pop. Maybe he is one of those. He also used the two qualifier prep and showed a fast 3rd quarter in the 2nd one, finishing better than his stablemate. He trotted in 58.1 overall, but allowing for two seconds for the track that puts him at 56.1 and thus, he is possible if he goes forward off that. He will have to be seen.

4 Thrufireandflames​ is a homebred for Team Green who is 0 for 7 lifetime and his overall speed just doesn't stack up here. I would have to see a lot more from him to go with some of these. Back in a maiden with some encouraging signs he could be a play. Not tonight. He trotted in 58 and change last year. Lets see him get back towards that speed on a warmer night like we will have tonight.

                       
5 Up To No Gouda ​will certainly take some action tonight after a somewhat troubled trip last time where he left well from the outside but then was gradually shuffled back due to multiple leader changes, only to come in the stretch to just miss 2nd and look impressive doing it. He draws better here, but he also faces P L Talladega again, who he was well back of the last time they met. That one has been off 3 weeks and this guy has improved in that time, but he still has to bridge that gap as a maiden facing winners who show stakes ability. He is viable if he can use that gate speed again and get a trip where he doesn't get screwed over by trip luck.

                         
6 P L Talladega ​as noted last time he is a half brother to P L Spencer who came along nicely at 3 to become a Superfinal winner among his very good performances. Upon return from a winter layoff last time he rushed out from the 9 hole, took control and set moderate even fractions to be an easy winner. However, the overall time was slow and there was no track variant. So, he takes play here, but he is no cinch and a short price is not ideal on this type, with likely bigger fish to fry down the road. I'm inclined to try and beat him out of the win spot with something of price value.

                          
7 Dream For Peace   ​is a 3yo Muscle Mass colt who raced 5 times at 2, winning once. He is a homebred for Team Steacy who won ​that one race in a Grassroots in 56 and was 3rd in the final of that program. Like many of Steacy's he is using the two qualifier prep, just as Elbows Up did last night to winning success. He is a bit of a slow starter so he will likely have to do it off the pace and find good flow. He has a shot right off the shelf. Another with a decent shot.

           
8 Wheeler Seelster ​is in very deep tonight, facing winners with a bad post and spotty form for Team Green who will use a catch driver here as they have two in this race. I cant see him in this spot based on what he has done so far. He strikes me as a 50-1 shot looking to nab 5th money if things go his way. Better off in a straight maiden for now if you asked me.

                   
9 Thor B Good​ didn't start at 2 but came ready to race this spring. He qualified well, then was very good value in his first start, finding a soft field with a very bad favorite. He did what good horses do then. He took control and went only as much as he had to and then crushed that bunch down the lane. He was not raced of that mile, so being out of the box almost a month to race in this series, he was qualified last week to keep sharp. He once again did what was asked and sat back then came a nice back half. He does draw bad here and meets a much saltier bunch than Steinbeck and Upgrade. Possibly, he isn't pushed so hard here and comes late for 2nd or 3rd money, but he has win potential nonetheless.

10 Chip King​ is not one I can back for various reasons. He has a very suspect gait and has been babied around London in every start I have seen him, and even that didn't work last time. He has 5 wins this year in 10 starts and that has gotten him 20k, so good for him and his connections for doing that. That also means he has won his way out of a straight maiden try at this track. Add the 10 hole tonight and I have to take a hard pass on him for now. Maybe the big track will help him as he has a lot of trouble with the turns at London. We will see.

He will add the hopples here. That is interesting. 

Race Summary

4

Sometimes a race summary is more a story about the race, not the race itself and what happened during its contesting. That happened in this instance.
Sometimes you analyze a race and then a key piece changes everything. That happened in this race. Up To No Gouda was no cinch. In fact he was one of many in what appeared to be a good betting race. I thought there was value there. And then there wasn't. Up To No Gouda was an early scratch sick, and thus the 7-2 or 4-1 price I was anticipating was gone on Dream For Peace. The scratch didn't just affect the prices, although it did do that. It also meant the outside horses had different options with a key contender who was sure to leave out now out of the picture.
Dream For Peace now had the 6 hole rather than the 7 hole, which doesn't seem like much but as we know there is a very big difference in the winning percentage of those two starting spots. He also had one less leaver inside him. That meant his likely come from behind trip now became a brush to the top and goodbye to the field trip. When the other "logical" contender blew up, the race was basically over. It also improved the chances of Thor B Good when he moved in a spot and two leavers weren't there inside him anymore. One scratched, the other running early and completely out of the picture. He was a clear and easy 2nd best.
Thus, while I had the winner, and with the scratch the exactor with my top two picks, in reality I passed on the race because 2-1 on Dream For Peace was not going to play with me for value. On to the actual race.

Dream For Peace is a very impressive animal when he parades on the track. He moves well, is stout and strong, balanced and willing. He catches your eye and he did in this parade. He clearly "looked" the best, which doesn't mean he would win and be the best, but along with his resume and his current form, and without Up To No Gouda, he was likely the one. He fully delivered on that.​ I didn't expect pre race that he would leave out and control the race, but sans Gouda and Talledaga in the mix, he did exactly that and was the easiest of winners. He left out, let the pocket horse take the top, floated by him and rated the half, then trotted away from him and the field for an easy score, driving straight and true. Can he keep that up? You never know but he didn't appear stressed at all by this mile. MTB. 

Thor B Good is one you notice in the post parade. He wears a lot of gear. Both on his head, his legs and he has the trotting hopples. That seems to work for him. While he is strong and stout like Dream For Peace, he doesn't travel as smooth and I'm not sure how sound he is. He is by My Mvp and a lot of those have soundness issues. There were times in the mile I thought Drury was holding him together and/or steadying him, and after the wire he was on the run. On the last turn I thought he was being angled out to take a shot at the leader, but it appears now he runs in a bit and was given a bit of space to make that turn easier. When they straightened out he was not gaining on the leader and he turned his head a bit like he wants to run in. He was a good 2nd but the two right behind him at the wire were getting to him. I have to see him next time but I'd say he is more likely to blow up next time than go forward. He is a good leaver and he tries hard. For as long as he stays sound he is viable, but that is in question in my mind. 

Fourth Gear is one I noted with some potential upside and that he would have to be seen. He is by Archangel and I have noted that many of those have some sort of back end wonkiness that some come out of, some don't. He showed that to me in the post parade this time. Mostly though, at this point he looks fine. He left well this time, enough to gain the pocket but was relegated to 3rd when the winner got to the top. That was a good trip as he had a clear shot from there to move when he wished. He did close late when angled out, but was never near the winner and didn't do enough to beat the 2nd place finisher. The issue I have with him is that he appears to be a shade rocky when he picks up some speed and will be prone to breaks if that is the case. He will be one to watch closely every time he parades. He will elicit clues. 

Century Massiah was solid again and did enough to get 4th money in a field with an important scratch and a contender who self-destructed very early. On his own I maintain he is not win worthy with the bunch he met and is likely to meet in this series, but has ticket potential most nights with them. He can leave, he trots and is willing. He just isn't fast enough. 

Thrufireandflames went a mediocre mile throughout with these,

 trotting back in the 58 range, but I'm not sure there is much more there. That got him 5th money as he didn't break like one did and another was trying to and he beat two others who didn't perform. That appears his ceiling in this series, and I will watch for his return to the maidens, where he might be far enough along to be value in that arena.

 

Wheeler Seelster lost the race for 5th money to his stablemate, but that was all he was racing for here. He is miles over his head with this bunch and looks more like a Prospect series horse than a Grassroots one going forward. He is wasting his time in this series. 

Stardust Joe is an interesting one. I recall him from last year but didn't remember much about him. Watching him parade, he reminds me of Hadley, who he is bred similarly to. He is tall, lean, narrow up front and has very long legs, too long in fact in behind. He is the type that might grow into himself, and he has some ability if and when he does that. Might be an okay 4yo mid condition horse. For now, in spite of taking unusual tote money here, he didn't do much and couldn't even go with Wheeler Seelster. Nuff said. 

Chip King got around clean and trotted under 2 minutes. That is about all I can say. He beat one horse, a breaker. He might be a very good Sarnia horse with enough speed to go there and much friendlier turns than London or Flamboro. For here, I don't see him as viable. 

P L Talladega is a bit hot in the post parade, mostly edgy and tossing his head, but seems fine going to the gate. Once he picks up speed he tries to go too fast and rolls off stride. His mother was like that as I recall. He seemed to get it back together after the gate miscue, then did it again down the backside. He tries too hard. He will likely grow out of that. Arrakis is a horse I recall that was like that young and he is still going at 14 and has been a steady warhorse. For now, good, bad, good, bad, that is what you can get on any given night with Talladega. He just needs to mature.