WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: March 13, 2017

As I go forward, any race I make picks in will only be done if I think I am beating the favorite. Will I beat them all? Of course not, and I do not expect to. But, I know the percentages. Favorites win about 40% at WEG, and less than even money favorites win about 55%. That leaves a lot of room to beat them, and as well, I can't just beat 60% of favorites and 45% of less than even money shots. I have to do better than what others can with those to derive a profit over time. That is what I attempt to do, and I will list on each blog, starting with this one, where I am at on that. 
If I think the favorite has a very legit shot to win, then I pass the race. If I think I can beat that favorite, but can't reasonably come up with value plays below him or her within the number of picks in that race I deem the right formula, I still pass the race. By my count, that leaves me somewhere between 5 and 6 races a night to make plays from. Some nights that might be 9 races, other nights it could be 2 races.

RACE 1 

 4 Passport to Art broke his maiden 3 back, but while he is trying hard, doesn't seem to have enough finish when he meets level or tougher competition. Luckily for him, this class is very soft right now. He comes back on 3 days rest, but if he is still lively and sound, and blasts out like last time, he has a reasonable shot with these. No cinch though.

6 Dream of Luck beat maidens off a sweet trip but those have not come back to race well at all and he looks like he is in for a long stay in this class as he has to develop now at this level. He will become something as the season progresses and make some kind of Sire Stake horse. For now, he is more likely to be a bit player.

3 New Talent  could not have gotten a sweeter trip last time. He floated out from the 2 hole, angled down the backside, picked up advancing and willing cover, followed him to early stretch, then tipped off his cover but could not pass him and let another by late. The leader was long gone, and doubled up Saturday night, but he showed a trend for him...a lack of grit and desire to get it done. The cheque he got that night forces him to move back up the ladder and he shows that they have been tough for him. He has 2 lifetime wins and only raced sparingly last year. He came out guns a blazing at 2, but has leveled off after that season. There isn't much to choose from underneath him but, I will go against him.

2 Blue Fox made a break and put in some ugly steps behind the gate on Thursday night, but he was back pacing on the gate when it pulled away. He went an okay mile, but was not good enough when it mattered. He doesn't strike me as one that does well off short rest, although that is a tactic Weller uses often and has had some success with.

8 Fancourt sat way out of it last time while the pretenders battled, then made a wide stretch move to pick them all off. He was more controllable with the martingale, and he did pick them off, but he was rocky most of the way, which is probably his way of traveling, but bearing in many times as he tried to gain momentum in the stretch. They came home in 30 seconds, so that gave him a reason to get away with it. Some of these are just a shade tougher and more seasoned. I will pass on him tonight, but he can go either way going forward.

1 Only Half Bad finally broke his maiden after many starts, in part due to a first up horse who was all over the track and dangerous, thus stalling the progress of the logical and live contender. He meets winners here, and coupled with the rail, I can't see him at first asking, and have a hard time thinking he can handle nw2 at this track if and when he gets a shot at them.

7 Windsun Gotham wisely double dipped on maidens, but looked sore, steppy and borderline lame last time. He was bearing in horrible in the last turn, but they staggered home and came back to him, so he was right there with the pack. He looks like one that will not take well to consistent winter pounding and racing. I will take a pass until he shows me otherwise.

5 Get Decked looked terrible pacing in the backfield all the way last time and didn't cut into the pack in the lane. I can't see how he goes with the better of this bunch.Early scratch.
 
RACE 2 

3 Think Again had little chance for the win last Thursday when he drew the 10 hole, but he did float out and not work very hard to get away a closer up 6th. That left him enough to pick up 3rd money against the old seasoned, veteran open claiming types. He gets back in tonight with the not so sporty conditioned claimers, and that helps on some level. Post 3 doesn't hurt his chances either. This will be his 3rd start for Weller. I like that he went forward as the pace picked up late. That bodes well in with this bunch.

7 Sports Vision had every chance to win last time, as Ryan gave him the perfect setup, but he didn't go forward at all. These types sometimes just don't show up, but show up the next time. That is why they are able to reside in a class like this. He doesn't leave at all, so he is another who will need some hot fractions and hopefully he brings his A game this time, whatever that is to one like this.

4 East End tried the condition types and did okay, picking up a solid 2nd once, and now can maintain protection with the tag as they up it enough that getting claimed is not probable. Roy takes over from Zeron, and that has to be considered a plus based on the results lately from Mr. Roy. He will need them to battle a bit in front of him, as he is not a fast leaver.

1 Six Before Seven was the victim of stretch interference two back, but last time took back off the gate, moved early into the flow, was 2nd over on dead cover, but that cover was at least keeping up with the leaders, and all he had to do was tip off of it and pick off a suspect bunch. These aren't much tougher, but a few are. I think the short price he brings tonight poses bad value. If he has to work a bit harder, he is likely to come up short.

6 Just a Thought was sold by Hudon to Allard, and he got one start with him as he was claimed by Holland out of that event. He never looked like he wanted to try in that race, but Roy convinced him to keep pacing, something he appears to be a master at. It was enough to save 3rd, but these look a lot tougher than the ones he faced then. I suspect Randy knows him as he was a McIntosh hopeful in his younger days.

2 Keystone Keen draws the ML top choice based on his class drop. He also is a month away and a vet scratch lame, which was a late scratch as he was programmed to go just a few races prior on that card. That suggests he warmed up poorly. He was inside the pylons in that last race he participated in, and he is very chancy, even in a race where many don't look very dangerous. I'd be very leery to take any kind of short price on him.

5 Notetoself Hanover is a 4yo who has done enough racing but only has 2 lifetime wins, many times blowing golden opportunities to mow down a suspect leader but coming up short. He now resides in the Ken Oliver barn, but his results and finishing prowess have not changed. I can't see him with these as is.
 
RACE 3

3 Tour De Lindy was moving up last time with the 10 hole and that did him in. He did well to get 3rd and draws better here. Fillion seems to be out of the funk he was in, and when he is in the right mindset, he can dominate and win with these types. He looks like he wants to be a good horse, and will develop into a higher end type as he matures.

4 Alfa Mersadies gets in light tonight on the inflated lifetime earnings condition. She has 8 wins in 25 starts the last two years, and an experience edge on many of these. She could wire these, or sit on the back of one who attempts that and pop that pocket late. Her versatility is a big plus in this race. Shot.

7 South Win Bax was coming along with maidens at this track, but went to Flamboro before winning that class, then doubled up there, and now has to face winners here. I wouldn't toss her, as winning is winning, and she looked okay even with maidens when she had the right post to work with. Minor shot if the likely ones don't perform.

8 Vasco Bi picked up JJ last time, as Per was on vacation and he skipped before the start and was never dangerous. JJ did good with him 3 back, so that can't be the only reason he bombed, and it isn't. He floated out just fine, but appeared to strike himself up front and that set him off galloping. He was up against it after that, parked the mile, and behind a runner mid backstretch, then simply was tired. In any event, JJ is available but Per will steer him tonight. He is a 1 time winner facing many who have 4 or more wins, and a couple of others who have 2. He might be the best long term prospect of this group, but for tonights race, I wouldn't play him tonight, but I might next time if he shows me he is sorted out, which most of us count on Per to do with his trainees.

1 Igocrazy Without U can continue to pick up slices with this class, but a win would require a lot of horses to do things wrong, and the chances off all the contenders doing so in one race is slim. Bit player in my eyes.

2 You Cant Afford Me had ambitious connections at 2, who aimed her at the Gold a few times and even the Champlain. She picked up shares in some of those and the grassroots, hence her 39k return. She was sold off to her current owners and has not been let down this winter. She got her lone win in the Autumn, and now comes back here looking for bigger purses, and likely will be a fringe Grassroots type as the summer progresses. Being an Angus Hall and from a Cantab Hall dam, you would expect her to be erratic and make breaks, and she does that. I think she has an outside shot with these, but others look a lot more viable and consistent. 2 of her last 4 racelines resulted in breaks, and she had very easy fractions when she won. These are tougher.

5 Noon Hour is another who is a high percentage winner, but that was mostly at Northfield, where the fields are not deep at all relative to what you get at this track. The way she finished her last two races, even with a moderate class drop here, I cannot back her. She looks like a B track horse.

6 Summit City Turbo was good a few weeks ago, but was raced on short rest, and now has regressed for 2 consecutive starts. I am off the bandwagon.
 
RACE 4  

Pass and watch these, as I suspect Beyombo is the one and he will bring short odds. Brief comments on what I see. Not listed in order but by post position.

1 Devils Peak looks like the type that will get a lot of 2nd and 3rds in this class. Keep watching to see if he confirms that.
2 Kazimoto first time starter, has to be seen for future tries. Watch closely.
3 Sedona Seelster should be overbet on the last race. He doesn't always show up and perform. Beware.
4 Southwind Savage still not impressed with him. I'd leave him off the ticket.
5 Chummy Park hanging rat who teases with short bursts of speed. Roy isn't likely to get this one over the top.
6 Beyombo unlucky trip last time, but gritty to pace right to the wire. Improving and looks like a good one.
7 Sporting Life decent pedigree, nice progression, looks like a prospect, outside shot tonight if faves bomb.
8 Nascar Seelster one to watch for future plays, expect usual Randy sit and brush late first time starter treatment.
9 Mystical Sun well bred, looks like a player on this circuit, post hurts tonight, watch for future plays. Longshot.
10 Casimir Patriot too many strikes against him tonight, but might be viable as he goes along if he is allowed in with maidens again. 
 
RACE 5

2 Utopia left out for the pocket in a 5 horse field last time and looked to be sitting perfect when nobody pulled deep into the last turn. That turned into a trap and he never got out of jail, Roy never even asking him or driving him, just coasting along last but with no chance to go forward. He is possible if he can maintain that level of effort and get more racing luck this time. Roy sticks with Allard, so J Mac takes over, and he does well with Joe C anyway.

1 Finish Line is a former 8 claimer that Allard has turned into a trotter who is a win away from the Preferred. He is hard to go against here, but even with the rail start, he seems to be willing to work for it. Shot.

7 Marquis Volo is about as consistent a trotter you can find when he races. He has long gaps when he goes on the shelf, but when racing, he races, he tries and he wins his share. This is a deep group, so he isn't my top choice, but he is probably an add in the picks if you play that. I wouldn't want him to beat me.

3 Catch the Dream  tucked immediately last time and that is a strategy that works for him. He stays trotting and can finish if the trip works out in his favor, as it did that time. He moved up the inside when many went out, ran into a roadblock, but both in front of him bore out just in time to allow him to drive the plyons and get up for 2nd, to the sharpest trotter on the circuit who doubled up as well. He meets a few tougher ones here, but not terribly more so.

4 Major Athens was first up last time and 2nd best to Finish Line, whom he meets again and others who have a bit better form than him. I will go to them. Minor shot, but just not enough for me.

8 Fearless Man draws the outside, and he isn't carrying his speed like he did the last couple of years. I think he has lost a step and will pass on him. He looks to be entering the class mover, drop and pop type as he ages.

9 Burnin Money does okay, but is generally more viable when the classes are thinner, he is down a level and draws a better post. Pass for me tonight.

6 Charlie Is a Joker wired a much weaker bunch last time by getting the 2nd quarter breather and trotting away from there. That party is over. Back to reality.

5 Odds on Amethyst needs careful handling to get away clean and stay trotting, and he doesn't need many reasons to give these an advantage anyway, as they have more class and form to him as of late. Pass.

RACE 6 

6 B N Bad might, and I say might emphatically, have been better last time. Fillion took several looks over to his left leaving, and when he saw a few gapping and taking back, he decided to sprint out of there. Late Night beat him out, then two others filled the gap and he had to take back to 4th. That resulted in following one who stopped to a walk and he lost all momentum, then ducked to the inside and went as much as he could. Post 6 is the best leaving post, and if he can blast again and somehow find a 2 hole and save his energy, he is a decent longshot play. He has 32 lifetime wins and a record of 49 and change. That is ancient history, but he still has enough speed left to go with the bottom rung like this.

4 Rockabella goes to Carmen. Good enough for me. I'd use him on the chance he finds the key to make this rat try.

1 Late Night was gassed out of there last time by Phil, but a longshot who backed up at the half carried him all the way to the quarter and he was down to the half in 54.2, and spent by the tote board. He looked good doing it the whole way, and simply was a victim of post and trip. If he brings a more reasonable price tonight, I could back him.

10 Burning Shore was blasted out of there by Randy last time, for reasons I don't get, then backed through them sharply. He has never been the soundest horse, but if that race didn't hurt him, he can turn the tables here with the double class drop. I'd use him in the picks. An off the pace approach could work here. I could see many of these wanting the front and battling to get it.

2 House of Terror was in a live cover flow last time, but they went better than him when it mattered. He has lived in this class all winter, and I don't see him moving on up to the better ones based on how he races. Bit player and opportunist. Wont work for it.

9 K D Overdrive comes back on 3 days rest, loses post advantage, and isn't winning anyway. Pass.

5 Crocadile Canyon was distanced last time and got on the vets list. He qualified back, but he has not come back off the long layoff good this time. Pass and watch, but I'd be willing to say its more likely he is an 8 claimer than 20 at this point, and he doesn't look good enough to win even this class.

7 Team Edward is not one I've ever seen before, and he appears to have spent his career at the B's, most recently at Rideau. I suppose he has a shot, but I will go to others who show they can race for higher purses.

8 Mach It Big is tough to back on form and post. He has seen better days, but the odd time he pops back into gear. If you think tonight is that night, this group is ripe for the taking. I don't and will go elsewhere.

3 Hail the Taxi I don't know how soft a field it takes at this track for him to win, but I haven't seen one yet, and neither has he. 
 
RACE 7 

I will pass on these. They are too evenly matched, with the favorites looking both probable and beatable at the same time. I will note I liked the way Cue Hall looked on the track last time and he is heading towards a big score, but post 10 tonight takes care of that chance. I will have my eye on him for a potential score down the road. 
 
RACE 8 

Not a bunch I'd try to sort.
RACE 9

4 Top Dollar  drew poorly last time and was out the mile. He moves up in class again, but Roy seems to find a way to win with anything, and Allard's juice is still effective at this point. I could see him if the right trip materializes. Before he had the 9 hole, he had all 1's and 2's, and thus, hasn't had a preferable post in many races. That could indicate hidden form, and anyway, he won two of those and was 3rd in another. Medium level shot.

9 Mighty Nicky never performed for Alagna, but as we have seen many times, a barn change away from him and some of those turn right around. He has done that, winning 3 straight, and moves up again. J Mac takes him over the 2, one of his main clients. Post 9 isn't easy, but he is possible on continued improvement.

3 Lmc Mass Oak draws better here, but his slow starts from any post put him in a hole he rarely digs out of when he is up against this type of competition. However, he has blown up the tote board a few times, and I wouldn't toss him in a race where I am of the opinion the top 2 obvious ones are beatable tonight.

5 Honor Above All ships back with poor form, but he has competed okay at this level before. He doesn't always have the grit to win, a function probably of his dam sire, but he is okay enough if the top choices bomb.

1 Free Willy Hanover is a tough call tonight. On the one hand, he was compromised by having post 1 last week, which he gets again, and thus had to make a strong blast move to the top, and that cost him the win, while only being beat by a legit one. He beat the rest. On the other hand, he is in for that trip again, and also looked sore and bearing in many times in the mile, and that could be something that is accumulating now that he races on and meets level competition. He might have gotten away with it before, but others have more talent at this level and can make him pay for any flaw. I will go against him. Its a risk/reward play.

8 Sergeant Seelster is on a 4 race win streak, beat the one last time that beat the 1 last week, and adds Trevor in favor or Wray, who while he has done a fine job so far, is not Trevor Henry. Post 8 will also test him. He waits on horses and looked all out last time to just hold on. I am playing others in here and will roll the dice against him.

2 Keegan Ho loses J Mac to the 9 and gets Hensley don't think he can win, but he can hit the ticket if things go his way.

7 P L Jill beat a weak bunch 2 back, but now she has to face the next level up, and that looks like a tough chore for her until she develops more. She is a big strong mare, but she is meeting the upper echelon now of what this track brings. She can't boss around and outmuscle these. Pass.

6 Majestic Presence doesn't look to have the overall speed of many of these and when she gets headed, she stops. This is a competitive race. She is one I can toss and take my chances.

10 Major Muscle is not one I can see with a post like this in a field like this.
 
RACE 10 

 4 Barefoot Bluejeans is a 4yo homebred taking a tag for the first time off a long layoff. I could make a case he pops on this bunch. He shows 54 over Georgian, and that stacks up here if he paces back to that. Trevor can motivate him if that is needed.

2 Classic News has changed hands, and goes first time Etsell. His form and overall speed ability look as good as any of these, and I rate him a big shot.

6 Futomaki had every chance last time, but didn't seem to want to try. I'm looking for a pricey longshot for this race, and Carmen has been known to turn one like this week to week. I could use him on that chance.

7 Four Card Major is a logical play for the hot tandem of McNair and Marfisi, and he could even be the chalk over the 5. I am inclined to roll the dice against him, although I'm aware that is risky with his good form and the nature of the crappiness of this field as a whole.

3 Trigger gets a shot here tonight on the ride up with his more success stablemate. Why not? You are coming anyway. He moves up sharply and doesn't show me what I think you need to make the transition to this class. Wray has improved him since he took him from Weller, but not enough for me. Cheque getter in all likelihood.

9 Jump Jet will have to show me a lot more speed to think he overcomes the 9 hole and takes this bunch. He gets a pass for the 8 hole at Flamboro last time. He doesn't get a pass for the effort before that. They are trying to move him and I suppose this is a showcase to try and get that accomplished.

5 Flyin Orion is a horrible Northfield rat and I will be happy to go against him if he gets heavy play on the Roy/Allard angle. The horse that beat him last time caved in big time next out. He probably would have that night too if he had something to pass him. This one couldn't even get by him.

1 Lock N Reload has not been competitive twice in this class, and I see no reason he is here tonight. These are soft, but he is softer.

8 Dg Ramtough 5yo, 1 lifetime win and terrible form. I can't see him being the one.

10 Duneside Sport total pass. Ketros can start by trying to get him under control so he isn't so dangerous, if and when he draws better next time.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: March 9, 2017

RACE 1

1 Lotus Seelster moved first up into a fast 3rd quarter (for this class) and was rebuffed by the well meant easy winner. She didn't entirely fade, and that was a decent first start for Moreau. I'm sure Fillion has learned with her she needs to save some ground and energy for the one limited move she appears to have. This field is not deep, and I will go to her on top instead of the obvious second time starter.

3 Homegrown Honey was solid in her first try with racehorses. She left alertly, stayed in and waited until mid stretch, where she came out and was clearly 2nd best but going forward. However, she had every chance to slide out much earlier, and Randy chose to stay in longer. She has yet to rough it and work for it, like most winners have to do. She figures and will be a very short price here. I will call her for 2nd and go to one who got a bad trip last time.

4 Connie Mach is an aged mare with 2 lifetime wins, one of them being at Mohawk in straight nw2 last year. She has clearly hit a wall with those, but luckily there is a shortage of horses this time of year, and maidens on this night, so, she gets major class relief here. That doesn't make her the winner here, as her current form is very poor and her overall time isnt that much better than the better ones in this field. But, she has won in 53, so she has a license to be rated higher than some others. Minor shot on the variables.

6 Ok Jewel gets out of nw2 and back in with maidens, which should be a big help to one who has won twice, but only at B tracks. I'm still not thrilled with her, as she looks like a one big move and done type. I will go to others who currently look better.

7 Heather Loves Ny doesn't appear to have much gate speed, and comes very late. That gets her pieces, but she isn't live enough to pass them all with one big move from far back. She also continually bears in the entire mile, which compromises her momentum when she begins to build it. I will go to others.

2 Kimberlys Baby tried to leave last time but the hole wasn't there, so she took back for a tuck and finished with pace up the pylons. She at least stayed at it this time. I have to see more for the win slot to back her, but she is possible to make the bottom of the ticket if one of me top 2 bomb out for whatever reason.

5 Lady Sherri looks like a B track horse until she proves otherwise, which to this point, she has not.

RACE 2

3 Total Knockout improved last week, and while you never know what you will get from her, she is capable enough if she can hold that form. Kelly is not here, so JJ takes over. Top call for a price.

7 Case Dismissed goes to Moreau off the claim and he jams her right back in. This is the fit for her class wise, but her slow starting, one big late move style, while effective for her to be close, leaves her at the mercy of the pace, which could be moderate here. First up didn't work out well at all for her 3 back. I will call her 2nd, too late again.

6 Alexas Hope picks up Roy, so, that is an angle to consider here. He can wake one up...and she needs to be woken up. She does just enough to be dangerous but rarely enough to back that up with a win. Her win record reflects that. I will call her on the bottom of the ticket.

2 Donna Party got the right trip last time, getting out fast to the 2 hole, and pulling that pocket before the leader stopped as the backfield was moving up to close the lane. She did back up briefly on the turn, as she is want to do, but once she straightens up, if she has not been used hard, she will go forward at this level. I will play others. She doesn't double up often.
 
5 Hex righted the ship last time on the class dive and moves back up to face tougher here. She is a player, but I like others who show more. I could see adding her to the pick 5, but I will roll the dice against her.

4 Phoenician Gal does not do enough for me when it matters. Bit player as a rule, and I will stick with that assessment as I have for weeks until she proves me wrong. So far, she has not.

1 Three Pink Bows does well at the B tracks, but the class rise at this track seems too much for her. Pass for me.

RACE 3

6 Zorgwijk Rocket was raced easy by Hudon in his first start back at 3. He is obviously being aimed at the Sire Stakes, and will make what he can until they start up. He drew poorly last week, but raced okay and finished going forward, if not just steady. I will take a shot with him on top for a likely big price. The talent looks to be there.

3 Man of Destiny meets a similar bunch to last time, with a few different names. As expected, he wasn't able to boss around more talented types when he exited the maidens last time. He raced okay, but he will have to do more here. I thought Per was protecting him the way he drove him, and Randy did the same. They are telling you this horse needs some babying to be viable. Until I see something to contradict that, I list him for 2nd, as I can't find anything at all I like other than my top choice. He could develop into a decent condition horse over time if he progresses, but it looks like a gradual thing, not immediate.

5 Dear Dad blasted out, daylighted a very bad field, and kept it together last week to break his maiden. These are far tougher. He doesn't show me he is ready to beat them. I will watch to see how he stacks up.

7 Summit City Turbo was raced on 3 days rest and that didn't go well for him last time. He finds it hard to win off any trip, but has improved. I suspect he is looking at a claiming tag soon if he doesn't beat these. I like others ahead of him tonight.

9 Asterix can leave fast, and goes as far as that will take him. Post 9 tonight, I would figure he is spent by the last turn if he tries to wire them.

4 Willie Wonka won a grassroots for McIntosh last year, which is the bulk of what he made, and otherwise made breaks. He was moved out of the barn and now Keith Jones takes over. Jones is very capable with this type and brings them along slowly. He needs a lot more speed to go with some of these, and I will watch for that and how he travels in this, his first start back.

1 Rose Run Reanna gets a better post on start 2 back off the layoff. Her win record, and in fact her overall record speak for themselves. I will wait to see a bit more.

2 Carmens Fluke made the races at 2, bagged 18k for that achievement, and won at Buffalo. The reality is with those, is that if you can race and behave, you make some money. He will have to do a lot more at this track against others who race without that protection. He has recently switched from Allard to Paul Cameron and looks like a project horse. Pass for now.

8 Magic Missions is a 4yo with one lifetime win at Clinton. Post 8 tonight, he is hard to see as viable.

RACE 4

2 Red Dog Saloon stayed in last week and was caught in heavy traffic. These are ripe to be taken, and he has a shot to do that if he gets a similar trip to last week but racing room materializes.

4 Emptythetill had the 10 hole last time, but raced well to be a decent 3rd. The winner was far beyond his and the rest of the fields reach, but he seems to be around the money when the wire comes each time. I could see him, like I could see many in here.

6 Passport to Art broke his maiden off the shelf, as Wallace is known to do, and while he has missed 3 weeks, that wouldn't concern me with any Wallace trainee. What does concern me is that he didn't perform well in nw2 off the move up from the maiden. He made a big 3rd quarter move then, but petered out when that bullet was fired. I think he is viable in the next few starts, but if the more conservative approach is applied tonight, with an eye to the future and his aspirations for the season, he comes too late tonight. McNair and Wallace have a very high ROI together, much of that due to Easy Lover Hanover, but not just a win record, actual return, which indicates he is a good fit with all of his stock. Easy Lover came from the same connections to these connections, and didn't seem to wake up until McNair started driving him.

3 Bugatti tried a very aggressive approach last week, and it cost him late. He was certainly better than I thought he was going to be, and his leaving ability, coupled with the better post makes him dangerous here. He would do well to leave and follow a live helmet. If that happens, he has a minor shot.

5 Blue Fox seems to like, and does his best racing from well off the pace. No reason to change that here, and if he finds a live flow, he is a contender. I went to others who will bring a better price, as he is not that much better than them most nights. He could make me pay for leaving him off.

1 Get Decked got the job done last time, but it wasn't pretty. Both Beyombo and Undrafted raced okay but didn't do enough in their next start, and I'm not that impressed with this horse. I think the move up to winners stalls his progress.

7 Clouseau Hanover doesn't show me the finish he needs to take these down. Pass and watch for now.

8 Jrs Big Buddy had every chance to win last week off a nice trip behind battling leaders, came out around them and then opened up a bit, but was winded late and picked up on the wire. That was his chance. This field is tougher and deeper. Pass.

RACE 5

pass on this bunch. Good luck. Note that Joshua My Boy goes back to Allard, but not via a claim.

RACE 6

5 Weslynn Dancer made a break in her lone start for a purse, but kept it together in both qualifiers. Being a Bax pupil, I will give her some slack and call her for the win, with the obvious risk attached in this type of race.

8 Spot in the Sun is very hard to like, but in terms of this field, not as hard as some. She has some excuses, and has at least trotted clean a few times and gone 2 minutes. I could make a very unconvincing case that she is possible if 6 or 7 things go her way here.

9 Forte has been a winter project for Per, and he might have him figured out. Being who he is, and the suspect nature of this entire field, I'd expect him to take big play from the 9 hole. There are still lots of ways this one can get beat, and I will play for that chance.

1 Bustingattheseams didnt make it at 2, and begins her career here. Post 1 for a green trotter, I have to pass and watch. Randy would do well to get her around, lop some time off and pick up money, going forward late.

7 Road Light still has no finish, and while she has more experience, very good gate speed and has earned in this class, she has not won and has had ample chance to do so. I will hang my hat on the suspect longshots in this race.

2 Real World Goal kept trotting last time, and as one of seven in that race, he got 4th ahead of some who didn't behave and one that stopped and has a history of doing that. I see no progress to suggest he can do more than that.

10 Royal Intrigue was a decent 3rd last time, but post 10 should negate the chance for even that here. Another day maybe.

3 Travel Lightly another that didn't make it at 2, and barely qualified last time. No thanks.

4 Queen Adjala is a 5yo with two career B track wins, coming off a layoff of 5 weeks. She will have to be seen.

6 For a Reason shows no speed to suggest she can keep up with whoever is the viable one in here.

RACE 7

2 On the Minute Mark slid out in the lane and closed nicely to be a competitive 4th. I will call her tonight with this weak group to get a more aggressive Trevor steer and pull a minor upset. She is no cinch, but could be value if she brings 4-1.

3 Queen Ideal got 2nd in the Town Pro final, and that jumps off this page. She also has not raced since that race, and that also gets your attention. I will have to see her parade. Being that it is the first leg of the late pick 4, you get that look before you have to place that wager. Otherwise, I have no clue, but am inclined to think she can take these right off the shelf.

7 Dancing Shadows K never left the pylons from start to finish last time, but the red sea parted and she just had to keep pacing to get 2nd, which to her credit, she did. I will go to another here, but she is possible as she is fairly consistent and a good fit for this class until the better ones come out of hibernation.

6 Mia Oh My made the lead from post 8 last week, had an easy lead but let the favorite, and winner, go, followed her, but was gapping, and was outpaced in the lane, barely holding 3rd under a lot of urging. I think she has limited ability and while she is viable and has a shot, I like others who show a bit more.

4 I Wish You Well still does not impress me, and she will have to prove me wrong. She doesn't do enough when it matters, no matter the trip she gets. Pass.

5 Alexas Luck got the soft half last time, and that was all it took to step away in the lane. We will have to see how she progresses now without maiden protection. I cant see her doubling up on first asking with these.

1 A Mary Can Sting has missed a month, was a vet scratch lame last week, and has suspect Meadows form. I will have to see her once to see if she is viable for next time. I doubt it.

RACE 8

pass on this group.

RACE 9

5 Stealth Bomber clearly lays over this field and will be 1-9 with a large bridgejumper attached if they leave show betting up. He would have to be horrid to get beat here.

2 New Standard does not leave, even from good posts. That has been his history since day one. In this smaller field, if he were to get away 4th or 5th, and move at the right time, he can be 2nd best to the obvious winner on the page.

4 Twice Drafted tried to wire a weak and light bunch, but the pocket sitter measured him and easily floated by him late. He is progressing, but meets a bearcat in the making tonight, and isn't a cinch for 2nd either.

1 Go Like a Pro raced at 2, but clearly was not ready to. Big Bad John foals can fool you, as you see many of them show you some talent, but not race up to it. He is well short on time in this race, and lets see what he brings to the table going forward for the weeks to come. He could easily be a solid beat at London in the coming weeks.

6 Silversmith looks like the second rung of this field, but can bag 4th if things go right. He has 3 lifetime wins but gets in with maidens, although most are not actually maidens.

7 Sedona Seelster closed with the pack on Monday to get 5th money, but that appears to be the best he can do at this track. He could end up winning a lot of races at KD this summer, and that is probably why he is being kept around.

3 Lyons Delight shows me nothing to suggest he competes with these.

RACE 10

1 Weatherly drops down in class and looks very tough on the page, picking up Trevor and pacing in 52 or faster every week. Horses like this seem to get beat a lot in classes like this, but he is hard to go against. The scratch of Mach Messier gives him a better chance of control, but also a chance he gets trapped in if Mac Raider now gets to cut it. Lukewarm top call and the price is likely to be short.

7 Luke and Duke won this class 3 back and McNair seems to know what makes him tick. He will need some battling up front, which he is likely to get, and some outer flow to progress with, which is possible. He has a shot to make it happen if the lane he is in carries him to the right spot.

2 K D Overdrive was up late for 3rd last time, but no threat to the top 2. He has improved a bit, but not enough for me to go to him for the win.


6 Mac Raider was involved in some speed battling last time and he gave it up late. He has competition again for that type of trip. I go to others. He needs the trip to be in his favor, and I don't see that working out for him tonight. 
 
10 Big Petes Style is one post really hurts and he drew that short straw tonight. He could be 4th or 5th, but I cant rate him higher.

9 Imsporty starts very slowly, unless you gas him out of there, which Zeron tried a few times and he stopped to a walk. So, he is the one trick pony now, and that results in his poor win record now that he is away from the conditioned claimers. Post 9, even farther back at the start. Pass. 

4 Print Media showed flashes of decent ability at 2 and 3, but even then, he didn't bring it week to week, and he has continued to be that type. I'm just not impressed with him when there are some other okay ones in here, and he would need some grit to take them down, something he rarely shows.

5 Terra Cotta Lad is not one I can see with the class he brings to the table and lack of speed he has shown in the recent past. Dover is a highway, and he paced that in 54. That isn't enough for me to think he takes down pacers pacing in the 52 or 53 range currently.

8 A and C Artist ships in looking to upset the apple cart as he did last time he was here, in this class as well. He made a break on Sunday night at Rideau, and that is not good form to show up with here. I will stay away from him.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: March 4, 2017

RACE 1 

3 Mr Mach Jimmy took back on Monday, and had a lot of road trouble with 2 that blew up after taking control. He finished a solid 3rd, and he stacks up well with these. He is in the mix.

1 P L Jackson finds a slightly softer bunch, but taking back is resulting in bad flow trips. Sharp, but trip dependent.

6 A Bettors Risk now has 2 in a row, but he beat a very weak bunch last time, relative to these, and he would really have to step up quickly to go with some of these. I could see him on the bottom of the ticket, but that is the ceiling as I see it.

7 Secrecy has woken up nicely on the barn change, but now has to move up without winning. There are just too many options in this race to go to him on top. He will also need to go a second or more faster, and he has not shown that as of late. Watching tonight, but he is on the radar.
 
4 Major Hill never looked good on the front end on Monday night. When the pressure came to him, McNair tapped him with the whip and he stuck his toes in. Something wasn't right. He is right back in to go, but he will have to be seen. I'm inclined to pass on him.

5 Migrate Blue Chip had every chance on Monday night, but when all was said and done, he missed the ticket, and two of the three that were behind him completely blew up. I continue to pass on him. 

 2 Dreamy Fella was all out to pass Real Rocker last time, and barely did. These are far tougher. I can't see him.

RACE 2

 5 Our Sky Major N appears to have a significant edge on this bunch. He shows up and races to what he did last time and he handles this bunch at 1-5 or less. 

 8 J Js Delivery takes a class drop and that gives him a minor shot. He needs the 5 to not show up.

 1 The Rev loses McNair to the obvious one. Cant see him even on the class drop and better post. Watch for next time.

Can't see any of the others being dangerous. The 5 is a pick 5 single to me..and of course, everyone else.


RACE 3 

pass and watch this bunch.

RACE 4

Mixed bag here. Don't have much of an opinion on who is that much better than the others. If I were to play the pick 4, I'd be very deep. Toss 3 and 7, could be any of the rest.

RACE 5

2 Mach Pride is the likeliest to benefit from both the class drop and good post. His gate speed and overall tactical racing style, combined with enough class when in with the right ones makes him my top play.

3 Champagne Phil is another who will enjoy the class relief, plus the post improvement. Spotting them 15 at the quarter twice in a row is not his style, so, getting back on or near the front gives him a fair shot if the trip works out. He is a player with these tonight.

7 Mr Carrotts started poorly off the rail last time and thus didn't do anything with the big class drop. He is viable this time if he gets in the flow and isn't first up. That is possible if he fishes out a willing victim. Contender if the trip favors him.

9 Mohawk Warrior paced a solid mile off the layoff, but now draws post 9 for the class drop. He has a history of not winning at short odds on a class drop like this. I will play that angle. He needs more grit than I've seen from him over the year and a bit he has raced at this track.

10 Regal Son paced a pretty good back half last time, and if he had drawn better, he might be a win player here. He didnt. Looks like a candidate to take a small share.

4 Smalltown Terror is a fast closer, but very slow starter, and that hurts his win chances, especially when a few of these aren't likely to come back to the field like others did last time. I will go against him to others who have proven they can win this class when the variables favor them.

1 Single White Sock moves up another step because he is picking up pieces. This field looks too deep for him

8 Burning Shore has gotten his race legs back, but I suspect he needs more class relief to get it done. Pass for me tonight.

5 Paparazzi Hanover bombed as the choice last time. He just simply does not perform when you would expect he would. Pass for me.

6 Half a Billion beat a soft bunch a notch lower. He wont find these so willing to lie down in the stretch. Pass.

RACE 6

Tough bunch to sort. I am suspicious of Three of Clubs, but overall, I cant find one to go to even if I discount him, which I cant entirely do. I will just watch to see if I can spot something for next time.

RACE 7

pass on this group and watch. Cash For Gold adds Lasix. Interesting move.

RACE 8

7 Company Man seems to be trending upward, and some of these have been hard raced for a long time. I will call him for the upset.

4 Nickle Bag very tough to go against him here, but you get the short price if you play him.

2 Alexas Jackpot others look better than him for the win. He can trip out for 3rd if they battle and kill each other off.

3 Jins Shark not impossible. but I like others better. He runs hot and cold, and looks cold currently.

5 American Virgin still didn't look great last time and he can easily blow up again. Pass and go against.

6 Audreys Dream  will have to prove he can still go with these types. I am doubtful.

1 Shadow Place they paced away from him in the lane last time. He hasn't shown he is legit at this level for the win.

RACE 9

1 Bringhome Theblue takes the class drop off a very poor effort. He could easily turn it right back around, as Barocky did last night for this stable. Perhaps there was some sickness. He has a shot on that angle.

3 Machal Jordan blasted to the top and dominated a weak bunch on Monday, but he has been here before. I could see him and he is one to use if you are going against the 7 as I am here.

7 Traceur Hanover is so inconsistent in terms of what you might get on any given night. I will go against his probable very short price on the class drop. He could prove me wrong, but he has proven me right several times when he looked large but raced puny.

9 Prescotts Hope has been making breaks, and looks very suspect until he proves that he can stay on gait. If he is good tonight, he could wire them. Big if, but not out of the question.

2 Lonewolf Currier started poorly last time and had too much to do to get back in it. I like others on overall winning form, which this guy rarely does these days.

6 The Rockinator will have to show he can handle this type of competition. Miami Valley types go fast and they have high purses, but the depth of the fields are poor and its cheap speed as a rule. I will pass on him and watch.

4 Casimir Overdrive gutted it out over Darcee last week, but who doesn't? These are a tougher level than he can normally beat with his hanging on the turns. They don't come back to him like those did.

5 Woggy Rocks has turned into a solid money maker at the B's, but he has trouble here, especially anywhere but the bottom, and he is a victim of being good at those lesser tracks. He can't keep winning there, and he makes too much to face level competition when he comes back here. Pass for now.

8 Darcee N no thanks.

RACE 10

7 Little Woody looked home free on Monday night, but struck himself, got wobbly and then ran. I can give him a pass on that, as it was the first start for the new connections and also over this track. A shoeing adjustment is likely and he can take this bunch if that works. He is also in a lot softer, and that wont hurt.

8 Mr Match on Beach gets a driver change, and I suspect they hope Trevor rings his bell and wakes him up. I can use him as an option if that materializes. That angle worked just fine on Donna Party last night.

3 East End sat way out of it last time and came late when most of them tired. He has improved for Budd, but not enough to list him for the win. Ticket material again, and he is one to watch for as the weeks go by.

2 Hughgetthecredit continues to start slow and find this level pretty tough. He looks like a bit player at this level.

4 Speedling won from the 10 hole 2nd off a short layoff. He doesn't generally double up, and I will stay away from him and his likely short odds this time.

5 Big Yellow caved in last time and that is more likely what you get from him than the way he was the start before, when he was bearcat-ish. Pass.

9 First Car is hard to take with a bad post and mediocre form. Pass and watch to see if he races well in spite of the likely hole he will be in at the half.

10 Silver Bullet will have to be seen to get a handle on him going forward. Tonight, the 10 hole, the layoff, the poor last quarters, he will really be up against it to make the ticket.

6 Whatashowinontario did his duty at the bottom. That was then. 

1 Podge has tailed off badly as of late, coming home in 32 and change last time. He would have to show me something to get me on board.

 

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: March 3, 2017

RACE 2

5 Donna Party tried to leave last week, could not get there, and there were no holes. She drove on, but was mostly in the road. She will just back up when that happens, but come right back next week and be viable if the trip works out. You can be sure Trevor will have the sword up and he is blasting to get the lead or a comfy 2 hole. If she achieves that, she is certainly capable of beating the 6. Hard to find another who shows much to go with otherwise.

1 Mystical Wonder was 2nd over last week, tipped wide around poor cover, but the winner was on her back and blew right by her, and then reeled in the runaway leader. She did keep coming, and she is possible in a weak bunch where anything close the week before can turn the tables the next week.

4 Total Knockout is the type that wins races like this when the front enders battle and set it up for a closer who can show up every now and then and pass staggering ones. Longshot chance if all that happens.

6 Case Dismissed mowed down a runaway leader last week, but she isn't always so racy and is more likely to stop as she did in previous weeks. The party was last week and this week is more likely to be the funeral to those who hop on her chalky favorite train. I will look for 1 or 2 who figure but will bring better odds because she popped last week. She is likely to make the ticket, but I list 3 win candidates to go to in the pick 5, and completely leave her off for that play.

7 Watt a Funny Face was the early leader last time but backed through them and beat nobody. Hard to like her and think Trevor is going to make the lead and let her go. She could however, run him and set it up for others.

2 Darktwistedfantasy was a hot commodity last year, but tailed off sharply in the winter, and still shows little to suggest she can finish with these types. Its an interesting rise, when 6500 looks like the right fit.

3 Phoenician Gal stayed in last week, and was being chased to keep up, but split horses late as they staggered home and picked up 3rd. She doesn't seem to have more to offer than that. I will go to others for the upset.

RACE 4

7 Greystone Ladylike is the type that really benefits from a class drop like this, especially when she draws a post that keeps her up close or in the race to the half. She is one of a few I can see taking this field down. I'd want 4-1 to make her a solid win play.

9 Voodoo Charm moves back down, but skipped this level on the way up. Post 9 and another come from behind try, I don't think she picks these off as easily as she did 2 back, when it was a very soft field. She is possible if they battle and she doesn't have horrid cover to get around. That is a lot to count on.

8 Kiwi Focus N is generally a pretty gritty and tough mare, but she appears to lost her good form and now is on the downward class move. That didn't help last time and she was given an extra week off. She is dangerous enough, but I will go to others with better current form. She is likely to turn it around in a few weeks.

3 Shezarealdeal had every chance to win last time but couldn't pace away or shake the eventual winner. She seems to lack the grit needed and last week was evidence of that. I will pick others to go to and roll the dice against her finding a way.
 
5 Lights Go Out raced okay last week, but picked up 4th money, and that forces her to move up a level. Based on her current form, that is not good for me. Pass.

1 Drivingthedragon N can leave fast, but going all the way at this level seems beyond her. She probably needs to hit bottom to get back in the win column. I will wait for that class drop.

2 Miss Coco Luck stays at the same level, and had no pace when it mattered last week. I still think she will need to hit bottom to be win worthy.

4 Onyourmarknatava seems one level above where she is dangerous and that showed last week and the week before. I will pass until I see something that changes my mind.

6 Barockey  was completely outpaced last time and backed up sharply. She might be viable one class down, but will have to drop some money to do so. I will wait for that move to make a call against her, if that is the case. I don't ever play her, but I wont go against her either if she looks like the one. She doesn't in here, for sure.

 RACE 5

 8 Mia Oh My has beat these once, and been 2 lengths off the winner last time with a post 9 back of the bus start in between those. She looks very playable considering the soft nature of the competition. My memory of this filly family is that they start late in their careers but progress quickly and benefit from not being tossed into the fire at 2.

1 Dancing Shadows K has had 2 decent efforts at this level, sandwiched around a 10 hole start where she ended up first up at 65-1. She looks to be very viable, and one of a few who get it done for a decent price.

4 Evangelin Seelster showed flashes of talent last year, but also showed the trouble that caused her to make breaks and be shut down in the middle of stakes season. She will have to be seen, but is possible if she has come back sounder and ready to race. Her qualifier suggests she is, as she kicked home with good speed to indicate readiness.

2 On the Minute Mark just missed last week, and her last two have been reasonably good. However, she has 1 win  from 25 starts, and thus, is a mare that broke her maiden and has been stalled at this level since. I will take my shot against her and the other possible fave.

3 I Wish You Well has now missed a month with a vet scratch sick. She beat these once, but most times does not have what it takes to go all the way to the wire. If she draws favorite status, as the ML suggests, I will be happy to go against her. 

6 Shooteronbye moves out of the claimer, where she wasn't getting it done, and into the nw2 condition, which is a mixed bag where its not that much tougher. She has not shown she can start well though, and that is an issue for the win spot. I will watch. She looks like a bit player.

9 Life Groove is likely to be in a deep hole from this post and I'm not sure she can overcome that. I will play others.

7 Mach Majorette is another slow starter who aims at conditions tonight and ditches a claimer. She looks in very deep considering her overall performance. A straight 8 claimer looks like the better spot to me.

10 Itsallabouthebass came off the shelf last time without lasix, went around, took her time back down, but now draws the 10 hole. Another day maybe. Can't see her overcoming this post, and she would have been iffy even from a good post.

5 Ok Jewel  shows B track speed to this point, and will have to prove she can offer more. I will pass for tonight and see if she belongs. The jury is out.

RACE 8

4 Wrangler Magic didnt get to race last week, but draws well here, can leave a ton and draws the red hot Roy. I will go to her and play that the 5 either comes too late or gets hung up in traffic.

 7 Sayitall Bb did all she could last time but the fractions went against her and she was 2nd best. She has upset potential here, as many do.

3 Bernadette takes her first shot at the top class, as she is 4 now and will have to tackle the best around when she does well, as she has for many starts. I rate her an outside shot, but there are at least 3 in here who have tackled the top rung for a long time and won. She will have to prove she can handle all of them at once. I say she makes the ticket, but 2 of them beat her...for now.

5 Sandbetweenurtoes as has been her history, she will miss time and then come back, race easy, and then fire the following time. I expect a big effort from her here, and also a short price, and while I expect her to be right there, she can arrive too late, and I will play for that angle.

6 Waasmula gained easy control last time and just stepped it up from the half...game over. Not going to be that easy this time. She is very good right now, but also finds ways to lose when you think she is rock solid.
  
2 Dazzling Rockette has admirably won her way up to the tough class. I think she is a bit player.

1 P L Hurricane meets the full compliment of Preferred mares here. Pass for me.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: March 2, 2017

RACE 1

2 Dream of Luck left out, locked in last time. He looks very logical to take this bunch.
7 Twice Drafted took back, saved ground, came late with pace. He is progressing.
1 Devils Peak coming along, one of a few who are possible.
3 Southwind Savage still a maiden. These don't look soft enough to change that status.
6 Itsaboutmachintime looks like a B track horse to me, but has some longshot potential if you are looking for that.
4 Vinnie Bobarino bombed out last time. Doesn't show the last quarter speed you need at this track.
5 Born to Cruise looks far off this bunch at this point. He will have to show he has more.

RACE 2

4 Dobee is still risky, as most young trotters are, but she has come back to the races steadier, at least to this point. I'd watch the post parade to see that she is as she appears. If so, she looks to have a slight edge over this bunch.

6 Pingaling appears to be nothing special, but he isn't meeting any future Mack Lobell's in this bunch either. Its not a stretch to think he goes the same mile he has been, and maybe slightly more, and that is good enough to win by attrition. I rate him a shot only on that premise.

5 Dear Dad is the ML choice, and I suppose that is possible, but unlikely with his performance to this point. He was left parked out last time, by choice of the driver/trainer and left to go his own mile. He looks suspect on the turns and like he will run if asked to go any more than he does. He kept at it last time and that is mostly due to Vanderkamp's skill. At some point he might develop and become steadier, but I don't see that as imminent. He is a half brother to Cash For Gold, and VK took his sweet time bringing him along to have him end up what he has become. I don't see why he would alter that here either.

1 Road Light has good gate speed, but little to no finish. That might play with this bunch, but she is still chancy to seal the deal. She threw in the odd extra step last time as well and bears in enough to suggest the miles are wearing on her, something her breeding would also suggest. I can go to others for the better predicted price and leave her off any tickets.

3 Blameitonthewhisky comes back to the races after 2 qualifiers, but loses P Mac to another and picks up JJ. He is young and well bred, so I suppose he is a long term project for his owner/trainer, but tonight he will have to start showing more overall speed to get my attention for next time.

7 Real World Goal would do well to get around clean and pick up a small cheque, beating the ones that don't behave. I can't see anything more for this one from what he has shown in previous tries.

2 Royal Intrigue shows nothing to suggest she is viable even if she stays flat, which is no cinch either. I have to pass.

RACE 3
 

4 Homegrown Honey blew by a stopping leader in her qualifier, but nonetheless, she did it. There are two questions here. First, is she being raced to win? We all know Randy will race them easy when they are young and learning. That is a concern. Assuming he is racing to win tonight, can she take 2 or 3 seconds off the qualifier right off the bat? I would use her in the pick 5, and I will list her on top, as I'm not sold on Alexas Luck.

8 Lotus Seelster goes to Moreau, and picks up Fillion. She was competitive in a Grassroots last year and the type of speed you need looks to be there. I will play her with the Moreau angle in play.

3 Alexas Luck went a good trip last time, but the winner was able to step up the speed in the lane and that was enough to hold her off. She is bred to be a good one and seems like she will be a decent Grassroots filly this year, maybe even a Gold if she progresses like some do that start up in the winter for experience. For tonight, she is the logical top choice, but others can take her and I will go to them over her. She has been short odds in all 4 tries and had legit shots to win those, but has not. That is troubling.

9 Heather Loves Ny came very late last time but was no threat to the top 2. Post 9 means she likely has a far way to come again. 

 

5 Roselily is possible with the gradual improvement, but the driver is an issue and one race doesn't make a horse. She looks like bottom of the ticket material for now.

1 Northern Lauren adapted well in her first trip back to the big track, but while she sat a stalking 3rd, she was no match at all for the top 2 and couldn't hold off the 3rd horse, who she meets again. She now fits, but will have to do a lot more to win.

 
6 Kimberlys Baby doesn't look like much stock to me, and a small piece is possible if she actually can race the entire mile this time. Pass for the win.

7 Erosha is coming off 2 breaks at the start in her last two races for money. Trevor got her around in the qualifier, but she was far back of two she meets again here. She will need a clean line and show a lot more speed doing it to get me to consider her for next time.

RACE 4

Good luck if you want to sort out this bunch who look unsortable to me. I don't.

RACE 5

2 Shoe Shine solid form, claimed twice in a row, big trip last week. Major contender.
6 Evasive Card Shark comes in off a win, has improved with lasix. In with a shot if the trip works out.
8 Don Mcwhite was very hard used to make the lead last time, in hot fractions, and he gave it up. He is possible with a soft bunch if he gets an easier trip and returns to the solid form he had at times last year in the States.
5 Monte Cristo slow starter, stretch hanger, outside shot, as he shows up about once every 3 months.
1 Counter Strike got away last at Flamboro from the 3 hole, made one move, hung. Hard to like.
9 Sierra Madre picks up Roy as JJ goes to the 2. Post 9 should do in his win chances, but he can pick up a slice.
3 Hidden Potential his win record and form speak volumes.
4 Doing Some Damage off the claim, raced Sunday, cant see him with these.
7 Rockabella I see nothing to recommend him.
10 Mr Irresistible hard to justify on form and post.

RACE 6

8 Zorgwijk Rocket earned good money picking up shares at 2, but only won once, so he gets to start back with a soft crew that are barely winners themselves. If the intent is there tonight, he could win right off the shelf. Two qualifiers means he is probably tighter than the average layoff horse.

10 Tour De Lindy would be very hard to take, moving up and drawing the 10 hole, if this were not such a soft field, and he is coming off a win and a solid 2nd. He is playable for a price.

5 Gold Medal Swan draws much better here than the first two tries at this track and that could be enough. He could be a lot braver if gets the lead earlier and doesn't have to go around others.

1 Summit City Turbo raced hard to win on Monday night, but the pocket sitter picked him up in the lane. He was double entered from that, but has to race with these on short rest. I will pass.

3 Vasco Bi leaves big gaps in his races and that is a concern. His last line stacks up well with this bunch, but he must be as is, and that is questionable. I will go against him.

7 Little Stuie is fairly steady, and would be a dangerous maiden at this track if he could race against those. Unfortunately for him, he won at the B's when he was younger. He is just short of winning form at this track with winners.

2 True Muscle has not been competitive for a long time and I cant use her for the ticket until she turns it around.

4 Shestherealthing fooled them once when she had a really good night and everything went in her favor. Otherwise, she has been a clear also ran every time she races. I can't back her against winners.

9 Rose Run Reanna has been on the wrong track since late in her 2yo year and has not yet shown she is righting the ship.

6 Andovers Choice is not one I can back. He broke the maiden, but appears not capable of doing more against winners at this track. I suspect he is looking for a new home in upstate New York before the frost breaks.

RACE 7

5 Jrs Big Buddy has adapted well to this track over the winter, and his gate speed is a big plus. He also has the right driver for that job. Big shot.

3 Windsun Gotham doubled up on maidens, but now takes a steep rise, although this is a soft bunch for this class as a rule. I wasn't overly impressed with the horse that finished 2nd to him last time, he was suspect on Monday also, and he had trouble shaking him in the lane. I think he is a bad favorite if he goes off as such.

1 Blue Fox hung badly last time and stopped to a walk in the lane. He is inconsistent and can turn it around, but I like others who show more and do it more often.

7 Red Dog Saloon was pretty good at times last year, but other times he was rat city. I dont think he did enough at Flamboro to list him on the ticket. He might step up in the weeks to come. I'd be watching him for signs.

2 Fancourt is a very lightly raced 4yo and has shown those issues on the track if you watch him move. Until I see him sounder and race in a steadier manor, I will pass on him.

8 Clouseau Hanover looks like the type that could live in this class for a long time. Post and his weak winning form are enough for me to discount him tonight. He will find a level at some point.

4 The Roadies packed it in last time and meets one that went by him, and others who have decent form. I will pass on him. He beat up on some very weak stock at the Meadows when he was there.

6 Lyons Delight has missed almost 5 weeks and he wasn't very racey before that. I think he is overmatched with this type. He couldn't even handle maidens.

9 Bugatti went backwards on Saturday night, something he has a habit of doing. Roy takes over as Fillion sticks with the better prospect. He is impossible to see and 5-1 ML is crazy. He is at least 30-1 in my book.

10 New Standard shows nothing to suggest he isnt in the wrong race. Post 10 to boot. Toss.

RACE 8

pass on this bunch.

RACE 9

pass on this bunch too.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 27, 2017

RACE 1

3 Cheyenne Ford blocked in the lane last time. Likely winner.
4 Jimmy Be Good spotted right, a shot, but prefer my top choice better.
5 Dalton Did It not out of it, but he tends to hang late and let others pass him.
6 Cobalt Man can he take them all the way? I say no.
2 Ocaptain Mycaptain off the claim, moves up, pass for me.

RACE 2

1 Etruscan Hanover big move last time. If he holds that form, he can work his way right back to the top quickly.
5 A Rod Hall if he holds it together, he has a shot. Big if.
2 Burnin Money  finds a way to get beat every time, but a money making machine.
6 Marquis Volo I suppose he is possible, but I like others better and this is a deep field.
3 Catch the Dream fairly good right now, but still starts poorly and doesn't always hold form week to week.
4 Major Athens has to be seen. Did not look good at all when he was shut down at Yonkers, and his previous trainer is a known chemical trainer.
7 Big Rich cant see him at all.

RACE 3

5 Tattoo has nice tactical early speed which she didn't get to deploy last time from the rail, but when asked to pick it up on the last turn, she trotted home reasonably strong. She had to wait for racing room to materialize because she drove up the pylons and the leader didn't bear out, but when free, she came nicely at the solid chalk winner. She is a serious player if she can race like that again and hopefully get up near the lead.

4 Work That Magic floated out to follow last time, then had to wait for room, where she slid out on the last turn, had the most trot of them all in the lane, but looked to hit herself near the wire. She comes right back on 7 days, hopefully with some adjustment to keep her trotting. She is a stretch, but one who is possible to get it done if the fave cant get it done, which is my play here.

6 Summit City Turbo seems to have been a project for Zeron since he got him last year, and now as he gets back racing, shows signs of developing into something. My take is Zeron doesn't keep this type around unless he sees something to work with. He put him on the engine last time and he lasted a long way, just giving it up late. He had missed a month if you count the break before as a non effort, so he could be tighter here. The front might be the place to be in this one.

8 Summajestic draws poorly again, but gets to drop back in class and closed willingly last time. He isn't impossible in a race where you could make a so so case for 3 or 4 longshots, of which he is one of them.

2 Man of Destiny was simply better than the rest in his first two, and got away with just floating around them. The back half was slow last time and I doubt he can get away with that racing style with proven winners. I will go against him and say he will meet his match in this class for now at least.

3 Magic Missions has one lifetime win from about 30 starts, and did nothing at all from the 9 hole last time. He seems more of a B track type to this point, and its hard to see that he is the longshot that upends the faves in this race, if that is to be the case. He is one I can leave of the exotic ticket.

7 Igocrazy Without U finally got the maiden win when she got the front end and was able to come home in 31 and change to seal the deal on some very soft ones. She was okay last time, just okay, when she slid out and came after the leader but could make no headway. I'm not sure she can win this class and is probably headed back to Tioga for the summer to try and grind out a living there picking up pieces.

1 Innovative Force doesn't appear capable of beating this class of horse, and has tried various styles to no avail. Can't see him with these.

9 Pampered in Pink draws poorly again off a very bad line and loses Randy to the favorite. I would think this is a test drive to see if they can sort her out. She has not looked good in a long time and even Per couldn't fix her.

RACE 4

7 Undrafted took money for his first lifetime start and he did okay. More will be expected this time. He is bred to be a top colt, and is only now getting to the races. Whatever it was, he is here now and looks as good as any of these. I could see him, but he is hard to pick on top, as are some of the other ones.

3 Only Half Bad has put 30k in the bank, but has yet to get 1st money. That is a good thing for him, as he looks to be in very deep once he wins his way out. He did blast last time, but that lead became a 3 hole by the half, and he wasn't about to pull first up, so he sat in and never really got any room. Its debatable if he would have gone forward anyway, but he might have. He is a very longshot, but he is usable if you are willing to toss a shorter priced horse in here for that spot, which I am with another.

1 Get Decked is hard to miss in a race, as he goes with a very low head, like Artsplace did. He moved first up last time, his first start for Allard/Roy, and came into a quickening pace, but paced right with the winner to the wire, who had the fractions his way and the head start. However, he was choppy in the last turn and bearing in enough to notice a few times in the stretch. He is logical enough, but for the short price he should bring tonight, I'm inclined to use him but take others in the hopes his issues are enough to get him beat again. He does have speed and a willing attitude.

8 Desired Treasure is coming along, and has a minor shot, but post will hurt and he still needs more finish to beat the best of this bunch, whoever that might be.

10 Beyombo might have been a player 2nd time Robinson, as he has some speed and he did okay enough from the back last time. Post 10 means the same trip, and hope for a small piece and keep progressing. Spotting them 17 at the half, even if you are going to take back and brush late, is just too many. Lets see him get to within 10 and finish only 4 behind, and draw better next time.

6 Chummy Park came alive with Roy, but still has not won. I am willing to leave him off the exotic ticket and use the 3 with that spot. They both havent won a race and have had about as many chances. I will take some price and the hotter driver in this case, so if its one of them that gets it done, I would bank on it being the other.

4 Hermanus is a first time starter who was qualified by Trevor, but he sticks with the 3, who is a longshot anyway as well. I will watch to see what this is about. I would think he is out to learn tonight.

2 Sedona Seelster is a maiden, 30 times and then some. He is finding it hard to keep up, and others have more speed overall on the page than he does. Can't see him, even in a race where I'm looking for a longshot to pop up.

9 Santanna Tony was a big longshot from the two hole last time, and will be a bigger one from the 9 hole. He will have to at least prove he can keep up, which he has yet to do. Watch but skeptical.

RACE 5

5 Majestic Presence the logical play if you dont like the other two obvious ones.
4 Lmc Mass Oak he is possible on his best day, but that is hard to count on. He usually more of a bit player.
1 Free Willy Hanover another step up, I think he is about to the point where he will stall a bit.
3 Batoutahill starts slow and looks suspect at times. I like others.
7 Air Glider moves up, but will need to find more speed we have yet to see.
10 Windsun Missile post negates chance here.
2 Presquille ambitious class rise. I cant see him with this bunch.
6 Major Muscle looks to have hit the wall with this bunch. His gate speed is not enough at this level.
8 Macho Mass moves up without winning and hasn't really been good for a couple of years.

9 Miami Magic moves up and gets the 9 hole. Hard to make any case for her.

RACE 6

pass on this bunch and watch.

RACE 7

3 P L Jerico post is favorable. Call for the upset.
4 Olympic Son hes solid, but like last time, he is beatable.
1 Zeus Lightning doesn't win much anymore. I will stick with that conclusion until he shows me otherwise.
6 Stormont Kate up a level now that she has more trouble with.
5 Utopia picks up Roy, but these are tough for him with any driver. Pass.
2 Grana Padanno likely needs one.

RACE 8

I will pass and watch this one. Interested to see how Dovuto looks parading and racing. Priced to win and sell, but there is always caution when you see that with a horse that is clearly on the downside of his career.

RACE 9

6 Major Hill back to McNair. Looks as good as any of these.
7 Highlandbeachycove slow starts hurt his chances, and he is likely arrive too late.
2 Mr Mach Jimmy big improvement last time, 2nd off the claim. Loses Trevor, and he will have to do a bit more to take the top prize.
3 Sir Galahad another in the mix in a contentious race where trip will likely determine it.
5 Lyons Sands one of many, but I like others a bit better when it matters.
1 Little Woody have to see where he stacks up at this track. Others look more viable.
4 Migrate Blue Chip hasnt shown he can beat these.

RACE 10

Pass on this bunch. Interesting to see Mighty Peruvian. He looked pretty dangerous to control last time. If he is more tractable, he is dangerous enough.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 25, 2017

 RACE 1

1 Pop Goes Theweasel despite parking the entire mile from the 10 hole last week she earned 5th money, and that was just enough to put her over the limit and force her to move up in class. She does draw better, and these aren't that tough compared to what she has faced and beaten in the recent past. On her top form, she can gun and finish with these types. Roy is good at getting them off the gate, and that will help her. As seen two back, you can't go too much or she will get picked up. That is the task Roy faces here. She was 3rd twice with these before she dropped. I can see her if the price is right, and that would be about 3-1 or slightly higher.

2 Onyourmarknatava won at the bottom and then doubled up on the next level rise, but was no factor at all at this level last time. I cant see her gaining control here, and that hurts her chances. Pass and watch for now.

3 Barockey dropped to the bottom last time, blasted out from the 9 hole and wired a very soft bunch. She used her best asset, which is leaving the gate like a bat out of hell. She might try that again here, but two levels up, she will face pressure. She can effect the outcome, but I don't see her winning with some competition this time.

4 Miss Coco Luck Another who earned a good chunk last time and that forces her to move up on earnings. Pass with these. She can hit the bottom of the ticket if a few logical ones fail.

5 Shezarealdeal takes the class drop and is 2nd time lasix. She started out at this circuit at the Preferred level, which is clearly over her head at this stage. Her slow starts are also an issue. She was in the live cover flow last time, but when it mattered, the ones that got money went much more than she could or would. She also bears in enough in the turns that if she is parked, it will cost her. She has 5 lifetime wins, and 4 of those were at 2, when she banked almost 400k. Sometimes the ones that race hard for that don't come back well as 3yo's and aged mares. I will play others. She is a contender, but isn't doing enough for me to think the class drop is the right formula.

6 Ainsleynoelle won two straight on the way back up, and went okay with these last time. She is an option, but I like a few others better.

7 Maplelea is 2 for 30 the last two seasons, and has blown many good chances to win races with much less than she faces here. She was a solid Stakes filly, but she has regressed badly in the last few months. I'd have to see something very positive to see her with this bunch, but she could hit bottom next month and win that if she continues to be just okay with these.

RACE 2

1 Star Photo switches from J Mac to Massey, a downgrade for sure. He was okay last time, just okay, and he meets that one and others who have pretty good form. He was very productive last year, but facing Open foes at the B tracks has muted his progress. I will watch for a better spot.

2 Buzz goes to McNair, first time on the page and second time Carmen off the claim. He was okay last time, and will likely be bet based on the expected improvement and better trip. 8-1 ML seems oddly high, and at a likely 3-1, I will play others. He can beat me, and he might.

3 Rockin With Dewey was sent to Yonkers in search of another softer spot after she won when she was thrown a bone by the race office. She bombed out there, and came back here and didn't do enough last time. She is the type that wins a race and hits no mans land until she finds the right class. Pass for me.

5 Damfoolrmillionair stayed in last time, and was bearing in badly into the first turn. He took the lucky inside journey and found room to pass a very soft bunch. He has simply not returned to the form he showed as a promising half brother to San Pail when he was younger. He probably will turn around at some stage. I will pass on him here.

6 Eldorado of Gold S mowed them down first off the claim for Moreau last time from the 10 hole. Henry sticks with him, and he is possible, but on the move up in class, I like others better. He could hit the bottom of the ticket, and possibly do better if the top rung all dont show up.

7 Meadowbranch Memo is generally a very slow leaver, and last time that resulted in a move up the pylons as others pulled. When room materialized, he weaved and was coming hard to just miss the win. Trevor jumps off to go to Moreau's, so JJ takes over. He is subject to traffic issues and thus, I will pass on him tonight. He is possible, but more likely to lose than win.

8 Finish Line got away okay last time, but then had to sit to just about the 3/4 waiting for room, and then had two pull right when he did, so he came 3 high on the turn, and the winner was long gone. To his credit, he chased willingly and gained, to be a clear 2nd. He is solid at this level and looks tough to beat, but being its post 8, I'd want a price to take him on. Somewhere between 7-2 and 4-1 seems right.

RACE 3

1 Daylight Rush comes back after bravening up on London competition. He will meet a fairly stiff bunch here, and while he was very sharp in late fall, he looks in a bit deep at this level currently. Longshot potential, but I will pass on him and take my chances with others.

2 Dialamara    took the big class jump to this level last time, got away mid pack, bided his time and closed well to finish in a blanket finish for the top 3 positions. He has certainly righted the ship and is beginning to show the ability he flashed early at 2 but never came back to. The leave hard approach has been replaced and it seems to suit him to come from behind. He is a player here, but obviously no cinch.

3 The Wayfaring Man is possible, but he has normally just not done enough at this higher level to pass the real contenders. I like too many others to play him in this spot.

4 Resistance Futile  has worked his way up the ladder and of course he has the talent to go with these, but does he still have what it takes? We shall see. I could see him if the trip worked out and others battle.

5 Mach on the Beach has missed 3 weeks, and switches Fillion to Roy for his return. I will pass based on his suspect form at this level. He is likely a drop and pop candidate if he gets no money tonight.

6 P L Jackson has developed gradually over the winter, and last time he came from out of it to just miss. He did want to leave, but wisely Cullen see sawed him to the back of the bus, then moved up the pylons the entire way, following the winner but not quite passing him. He can stay in this class for a long time based on the lifetime earnings condition, and he fits well. It is fairly soft tonight relative to what you might find the odd time with classy droppers not showing up this time. He is another player among many. He rarely misses the ticket, and that is part of his overall consistency. At some point, he looks like a Preferred horse. He does need to develop a bigger second move, and that would mean also working for it a bit more. He seems to be heading toward that goal.

7 Bringhome Theblue has to move up without winning, as he bagged 2 consecutive 2nd place cheques at that level. McNair chose Blake's, so Drury will handle him. I like others. He is a better fit down at least to the level he raced last time.

9 Champagne Phil is up against it at this level at this track and from this post. Not tonight for me.

RACE 4

1 Single White Sock moves up without winning, but is not out of it with this mixed bunch who aren't that much better than him currently. I'd use him in the picks if you have room.

2 Darcee N is a very slow starter, a low percentage winner who has not done so in a while, but capable enough that he will at some point on the right night. Because he earns pieces just about every time he shows up, he doesn't get to drop down to the bottom, where he could be very dangerous. He was in a live cover flow last time, but gapping it noticably under heavy urging, and ended up burning the chalk players. He doesn't do enough to make me back him at this level at a short or shorter price. I will play against him.

3 Lonesome Attack was 2nd last week a step lower to a very live one who doubled up a few days later with authority. In his younger days, he was viable with these. He missed all of last year, and still has not won on his return. Pass for me.

4 Er Zach Attack ships in from Miami Valley, and retains Massey. His form stacks up here, and being that he had the 9 hole last time, which is the far outside and not the trailer, he has a license to be a player here. Another to use in a race where you need many to progress to another leg on the horizontals. He was 2nd twice at this level when he was here earlier in the winter.

5 Casimir Overdrive won at the bottom as the chalk by wiring them, but he generally doesn't get or go that trip, and needs to work for it. He will hang the last turn, but when they straighten up, he keeps coming, as he did last time. He stayed in last time, at this level, but the opening never came and he couldn't go all out to the wire. He is a player, but beatable based on his flaws.

6 Ufdragons Rocket seems to need to go to the B's these days to get his wins. He looks overmatched to me with this bunch.

7 Perfect Vista won at the bottom, but was no factor with these last time, coming late but not picking up a cheque. He is one I would leave off the tickets and roll the dice.

8 Code Word ships in with 40 lifetime wins, more than a million in the bank, a new trainer but a tougher post. I can see him being overbet here on the Allard/Roy angle. I will go to others and leave him off. Its a risky play with an unknown like this.

9 Late Night draws another bad post, and his slow starts mean he has a long way to come and would need suicidal fractions in front of him. I can't see how he gets his picture taken in this spot.

RACE 5

1 Nirvana Seelster avoids the Preferred foes tonight, but while he can go with those, and has, and has bossed these around for stretches, he has had his troubles lately even with these, who aren't slouches. I will take a wait and see approach here. Based on how poor he looked for a while, I want to see him put two back to back.

2 Velocity Driven looks overmatched with some of these for the win, but he could make the bottom of the tri or super. He would need a few to get hard trips and come back to him late.

3 Vegas Rocks is possible if my top choice somehow bounces. Otherwise, like most in here, he is looking to get a trip and take the biggest chunk that isn't the win cheque. He is sharp, and when he is, he has to be respected. Post position favors him here with the way he can leave.

4 Mach Pride went a long way on the front last time for McNair and didn't give it up until very late. Drury is back on, but this horse is pretty simple to drive. He will go as far as he can if you don't use him too much early. He needs to leave just enough to get that type of trip. He is possible if he can beat others to the 2 hole and save some for late.

5 Brilliant Strike N was prepped expertly by O'sullivan to make his N. American debut. He was ready to go 1:50 and he did, but he was raced easy and from the back, then picked up excessive cover and that cost him a shot to get 2nd or 3rd, which he didn't miss by much. He is very eager and willing and looks to have speed to burn. Fillion chooses him over Moreau's one, and he should handle this bunch at a short price tonight. The only caveat is that he has never raced at this level week to week, and being a Shadow Play, watch his soundness parading. If he is good to go, he looks very tough to beat.

6 Company Man was hard used for the lead last time and didn't have the finish he needed. Fillion takes the one that you would expect him to, so Roy picks up the leftover. He is not out of this, but this is a pretty tough bunch. Your call. I will leave him off, as the likely chalk just looks too tough for these, him included.

7 J Eagle Feather looks way over his head with these. Total pass.

8 Shadow Margeaux moves up off a solid win where he shot the rail and that was enough. These are tougher, the post is not favorable, and there are many leavers who will beat him to the trip many want in here.

9 The Rev will be severely comprised by post here, and he isn't the type that mows them down at this level. He is damned if he leaves, damned if he takes back here. Pass tonight.

10 Mach Code has drawn well for a long time, and tonight gets the short straw. Pass. I would think he takes back and hopes for a lot of battling to pick up 4th or 5th late.

RACE 6

Tough bunch and I will pass and just watch them. I'd advise taking at least 5 in the pick 4 if you want to play this race that way.

RACE 7

1 Blue Fox moves up a notch off a decent win and keeps Henry. At best he looks like he will need to adapt for this level.

2 Bugatti doesn't look like he can go with this bunch when they turn for home. I can't see him getting any money.

3 A Bettors Risk found a weakening bunch to his liking last time and took advantage of it. He has had a very suspect gait in the past, and this move up puts more pressure on him now. I will watch to see how he handles that.

4 East End  came home well in a 10 claimer last time in his first try with Budd, who has been known in the past to figure out one like this. If there is an upset on this card, he could be the one. They protect him here, and that is a positive. This class came up light here, so, he is usable.

5 Podge won this class once, but seems to be going the wrong way as the weeks progress. I will go to others.

6 Keystone Keen  was claimed in a cheap claimer at Pocono at the end of that meet, and raced sparingly since. This is a stiff test for him. He would really have to turn the form around to even make the ticket. As he likes control and seems to do his best with it, I don't see him winning but he will effect others who might try to fight him for it.

7 Hughgetthecredit  is another who has lost the sharp form he had in early winter when he appears to have gotten sick. He is at a level where he can get money, but has to do more. He is possible, but I will pass on him here and play for a better longshot.

8 Big Yellow blasted out from the 9 hole last time and took a big win. However, he isn't always so sharp and he doesn't always show up. He is likely to take big play on the attempt to double up. I will pass on him and play for the bigger price.

9 Rough Trade is an odd entry and looks completely overmatched with almost all of these. Post 9 gives him very little chance to luck into a trip even if he was viable, which is very debatable.

10 Whatashowinontario won the condition bottom and now comes back to these. No thanks even if he had drawn better, which he did not.

RACE 8

Another race I will pass on. I don't like anything in this race and I also could not toss anything. I'm not a fan of using an "all" but this is close to that type of spot.

RACE 9

2 J Js Delivery picks up shares with these, and isn't impossible if the 7 is horrid again and the 5 has an off night, which he does every now and then. He stacks up with the rest, and I'd consider him a solid add onto the late pick 4. He will need them to not perform, but that isn't out of the question.

3 Fine Diamond doesn't do enough from what I see to think he wins this class very often. He did once, but most times they outpace him in the stretch, as they did last time. Pass.

4 Alexas Jackpot took Nickle Bag a long way last time, and as he can leave very fast and then get a decent trip, he is possible if that trip happens here. Another longer shot to add to the ticket.

5 Nickle Bag is what he is. He will settle, pull, bear in, hang, and then just keep coming to the wire. He looks beat, but he doesn't get beat. I think his turn was last week, and while I respect what he brings to the table each time he does, I will pass on him and think its somebody else who gets the prize this time. Its very hard to win back to back in this class when its this deep.

6 Shadow Place habitually has trouble at this level, although his times stack up well. I will pass on him.

7 American Virgin made a break last time and was running oddly, like he caught a boot or something like that. He was pretty good for a long time, but also horrid for a while before that. He will have to be seen. I'm inclined to think he is competitive, but beaten tonight.

RACE 10

1 Koultons Rocket is more of a fringe player at this level, and I will list him as such. He doesn't do enough to beat these.

2 Bugger Bruiser had every chance last time, but was nosed out. He moves up and loses McNair, and that is two strikes against him. He is not impossible if the trip falls into his lap. Otherwise, he finds ways to lose races at this level.

3 Par Intended comes in off a fresh claim, and will have to be seen. He looks to be in tough with this group.

4 Rise Up Now is McNair's choice over several in here, but that isn't enough for me. His recent history is that he doesn't get it done at the A track anymore, and he isn't at the absolute bottom either. He will have to prove me wrong.

5 Asap Hanover picks up Fillion as JJ opts for the 10. He takes a stiff class drop, and that will help his cause. I could see him if he gets out near the top and gets some kind of a breather. One of a few who will need things to go his way.

6 Lonewolf Currier goes back into a claimer after conditioned types ground him down. He is possible with McMillan fine tuning him as he does with many, but I like others. His gate speed likely means he will take on any comers who want to try and leave with him and get the top.

7 Paparazzi Hanover takes a big class drop, but he was big odds his last 3. I don't think the drop is enough to make me jump on board. Pass. He will likely take big tote support on that drop.

8 Erle Dale N  picks up Roy here, but his form is suspect and the post wont help. I will pass, but he is dangerous on the connections he brings to the dance.

9 Smalltown Terror  has won two in a row, but meets a stiffer bunch here and gets the tough post. I will pass on him.

10 Spider Man Hanover blasted out from the 10 hole last time,  but was all done after the half, as something went wrong. He qualified right back on 5 days, but draws another 10 hole. I would think the plan is to race him easy and have him finish well, and wait for another day. He is one to keep an eye on, as he was a topnotch 2yo with a bright future then.