WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: March 4, 2017

RACE 1 

3 Mr Mach Jimmy took back on Monday, and had a lot of road trouble with 2 that blew up after taking control. He finished a solid 3rd, and he stacks up well with these. He is in the mix.

1 P L Jackson finds a slightly softer bunch, but taking back is resulting in bad flow trips. Sharp, but trip dependent.

6 A Bettors Risk now has 2 in a row, but he beat a very weak bunch last time, relative to these, and he would really have to step up quickly to go with some of these. I could see him on the bottom of the ticket, but that is the ceiling as I see it.

7 Secrecy has woken up nicely on the barn change, but now has to move up without winning. There are just too many options in this race to go to him on top. He will also need to go a second or more faster, and he has not shown that as of late. Watching tonight, but he is on the radar.
 
4 Major Hill never looked good on the front end on Monday night. When the pressure came to him, McNair tapped him with the whip and he stuck his toes in. Something wasn't right. He is right back in to go, but he will have to be seen. I'm inclined to pass on him.

5 Migrate Blue Chip had every chance on Monday night, but when all was said and done, he missed the ticket, and two of the three that were behind him completely blew up. I continue to pass on him. 

 2 Dreamy Fella was all out to pass Real Rocker last time, and barely did. These are far tougher. I can't see him.

RACE 2

 5 Our Sky Major N appears to have a significant edge on this bunch. He shows up and races to what he did last time and he handles this bunch at 1-5 or less. 

 8 J Js Delivery takes a class drop and that gives him a minor shot. He needs the 5 to not show up.

 1 The Rev loses McNair to the obvious one. Cant see him even on the class drop and better post. Watch for next time.

Can't see any of the others being dangerous. The 5 is a pick 5 single to me..and of course, everyone else.


RACE 3 

pass and watch this bunch.

RACE 4

Mixed bag here. Don't have much of an opinion on who is that much better than the others. If I were to play the pick 4, I'd be very deep. Toss 3 and 7, could be any of the rest.

RACE 5

2 Mach Pride is the likeliest to benefit from both the class drop and good post. His gate speed and overall tactical racing style, combined with enough class when in with the right ones makes him my top play.

3 Champagne Phil is another who will enjoy the class relief, plus the post improvement. Spotting them 15 at the quarter twice in a row is not his style, so, getting back on or near the front gives him a fair shot if the trip works out. He is a player with these tonight.

7 Mr Carrotts started poorly off the rail last time and thus didn't do anything with the big class drop. He is viable this time if he gets in the flow and isn't first up. That is possible if he fishes out a willing victim. Contender if the trip favors him.

9 Mohawk Warrior paced a solid mile off the layoff, but now draws post 9 for the class drop. He has a history of not winning at short odds on a class drop like this. I will play that angle. He needs more grit than I've seen from him over the year and a bit he has raced at this track.

10 Regal Son paced a pretty good back half last time, and if he had drawn better, he might be a win player here. He didnt. Looks like a candidate to take a small share.

4 Smalltown Terror is a fast closer, but very slow starter, and that hurts his win chances, especially when a few of these aren't likely to come back to the field like others did last time. I will go against him to others who have proven they can win this class when the variables favor them.

1 Single White Sock moves up another step because he is picking up pieces. This field looks too deep for him

8 Burning Shore has gotten his race legs back, but I suspect he needs more class relief to get it done. Pass for me tonight.

5 Paparazzi Hanover bombed as the choice last time. He just simply does not perform when you would expect he would. Pass for me.

6 Half a Billion beat a soft bunch a notch lower. He wont find these so willing to lie down in the stretch. Pass.

RACE 6

Tough bunch to sort. I am suspicious of Three of Clubs, but overall, I cant find one to go to even if I discount him, which I cant entirely do. I will just watch to see if I can spot something for next time.

RACE 7

pass on this group and watch. Cash For Gold adds Lasix. Interesting move.

RACE 8

7 Company Man seems to be trending upward, and some of these have been hard raced for a long time. I will call him for the upset.

4 Nickle Bag very tough to go against him here, but you get the short price if you play him.

2 Alexas Jackpot others look better than him for the win. He can trip out for 3rd if they battle and kill each other off.

3 Jins Shark not impossible. but I like others better. He runs hot and cold, and looks cold currently.

5 American Virgin still didn't look great last time and he can easily blow up again. Pass and go against.

6 Audreys Dream  will have to prove he can still go with these types. I am doubtful.

1 Shadow Place they paced away from him in the lane last time. He hasn't shown he is legit at this level for the win.

RACE 9

1 Bringhome Theblue takes the class drop off a very poor effort. He could easily turn it right back around, as Barocky did last night for this stable. Perhaps there was some sickness. He has a shot on that angle.

3 Machal Jordan blasted to the top and dominated a weak bunch on Monday, but he has been here before. I could see him and he is one to use if you are going against the 7 as I am here.

7 Traceur Hanover is so inconsistent in terms of what you might get on any given night. I will go against his probable very short price on the class drop. He could prove me wrong, but he has proven me right several times when he looked large but raced puny.

9 Prescotts Hope has been making breaks, and looks very suspect until he proves that he can stay on gait. If he is good tonight, he could wire them. Big if, but not out of the question.

2 Lonewolf Currier started poorly last time and had too much to do to get back in it. I like others on overall winning form, which this guy rarely does these days.

6 The Rockinator will have to show he can handle this type of competition. Miami Valley types go fast and they have high purses, but the depth of the fields are poor and its cheap speed as a rule. I will pass on him and watch.

4 Casimir Overdrive gutted it out over Darcee last week, but who doesn't? These are a tougher level than he can normally beat with his hanging on the turns. They don't come back to him like those did.

5 Woggy Rocks has turned into a solid money maker at the B's, but he has trouble here, especially anywhere but the bottom, and he is a victim of being good at those lesser tracks. He can't keep winning there, and he makes too much to face level competition when he comes back here. Pass for now.

8 Darcee N no thanks.

RACE 10

7 Little Woody looked home free on Monday night, but struck himself, got wobbly and then ran. I can give him a pass on that, as it was the first start for the new connections and also over this track. A shoeing adjustment is likely and he can take this bunch if that works. He is also in a lot softer, and that wont hurt.

8 Mr Match on Beach gets a driver change, and I suspect they hope Trevor rings his bell and wakes him up. I can use him as an option if that materializes. That angle worked just fine on Donna Party last night.

3 East End sat way out of it last time and came late when most of them tired. He has improved for Budd, but not enough to list him for the win. Ticket material again, and he is one to watch for as the weeks go by.

2 Hughgetthecredit continues to start slow and find this level pretty tough. He looks like a bit player at this level.

4 Speedling won from the 10 hole 2nd off a short layoff. He doesn't generally double up, and I will stay away from him and his likely short odds this time.

5 Big Yellow caved in last time and that is more likely what you get from him than the way he was the start before, when he was bearcat-ish. Pass.

9 First Car is hard to take with a bad post and mediocre form. Pass and watch to see if he races well in spite of the likely hole he will be in at the half.

10 Silver Bullet will have to be seen to get a handle on him going forward. Tonight, the 10 hole, the layoff, the poor last quarters, he will really be up against it to make the ticket.

6 Whatashowinontario did his duty at the bottom. That was then. 

1 Podge has tailed off badly as of late, coming home in 32 and change last time. He would have to show me something to get me on board.