Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Even the best of racing don't get it.

News came this week that Ron Pierce was basically leaving the Meadowlands driving colony to bolt to Yonkers. He describes his reasons this way, 

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/news/2-3-14/pierce-shifts-weekends-yonkers.html

 "I was talking to a friend of mine, and he said, 'Do you realize you made more money in the last two nights than in the last month at the Meadowlands?'".... I'm going to drive Yonkers Fridays and Saturdays until the beginning of the Grand Circuit season," he said. "I know the Meadowlands isn't going to like it, but I have to go where I can get more live drives."

But how did Pierce even end up driving at Yonkers that weekend? It certainly wasn't any big stake races or a special night. Simply, they were racing steady while The Meadowlands had been dark for a few weeks. Yonkers races five nights per week every week. It is a circuit. If drivers don't race, they don't get paid. That is the reality of their profession.

"With the Meadowlands closed, owner Martin Scharf asked me to come over and drive two of his horses, and I figured, why not? The trotter, Harbor Point, didn't even get in (Friday) and the pacer (Dovuto Hanover) didn't get over the track at all (third in Saturday's Open)."

Even though Pierce didn't do well with the horses he came specifically to drive, he is Ron Pierce and he picked up many other decent drives,for which he won 7 races over two days and made good money. The kind of money a top driver makes day in and day out when the racing is steady and the purses are good.
Last year, when Jeff Gural was doing all he could to save Harness Racing at The Meadowlands I was on board with him.
Yes, I still am to some extent. Certainly he has done more than almost anyone to bring live racing in the big leagues back to the forefront. I give him major credit for that. The Meadowlands has long been the mecca of harness racing and the big leagues. Nobody I know disputes that. The fact that it was all but dead if not for Gural is not lost on any of us who understand the peril racing was in and continues to be in.

 “A healthy Meadowlands can do a lot of good for the whole sport in general. I feel the same way about Woodbine. If these racetracks go down, I think the business might go down,” Gingras said.

-Yannick Gingras

 There is no doubt in my mind that if The Meadowlands goes down and Woodbine/Mohawk does as well, or cuts back anymore to the point that it isn't a major circuit (which it is dangerously close to now as it is), harness racing as we know it will not exist. It will go back to the way it was before Roosevelt and other tracks got lights and added night racing-a seasonal thing that requires most participants to have second jobs, day jobs to survive. Even the more successful ones. Very few can survive on the racing opportunities and purses that exist without those circuits.

As it was, the Meadowlands only races about 8 months a year, and in the early winter, only 2 nights a week with 3 nights a week after New Years if the weather cooperates. Which it hasn't this winter.
That is, until they SHUT DOWN FOR TWO WEEKS to accommodate the Super Bowl at the Meadowlands. From what I understand, the racetrack got paid very well for doing that. I understand why Gural does that. He has sunk many millions into the track to rebuild and re brand it so that it is an attractive place to come watch and wager as well as attract internet wagering. He has been successful to this point doing that.
But in shutting down for two weeks, what he has done is drive the remaining drivers away to other tracks. Some will come back, others wont. Pierce made the decision not to. So did a lot of the horses that spread out to look for racing opportunities. While the Meadowlands was hosting the Super Bowl, owners still had to pay training bills on their horses and drivers didn't get paid unless they found somewhere else to race.
And what did all this accomplish. According to Gural, it wasn't even worth the agony he had to deal with in the dictatorship that is the NFL.



"....The Host Committee paid to rent out the new racetrack grandstand for a major pre-game party on Super Bowl Sunday afternoon.
“Under my lease, I was obligated to close for the week before the Super Bowl, so I knew I would lose three dates,” Gural told me Friday, referring to not having the track open on Thurs-Sat, Jan. 30-Feb. 1.

“[The NFL] asked me to let them use the track for an extra four days, which eliminated two additional racing dates,” Gural added, referring to the fact that he agreed to also shut down the track on Thurs-Sat, Jan. 23-25. (Gural was able to get one date back by racing on Wed., Jan. 22.)

“I did this as a favor, which was stupid because any favor I asked of them was rejected,” Gural said. “It’s my fault I didn’t get anything for the extra few days, because I tried to be nice and did not ask for anything.”
The Meadowlands track is in its prime winter season, so Gural not only lost two dates – while settling for a less attractive makeup date of Wednesday from a third lost date – but two major ones. The track has had some success in battling tracks in other states in the region that have their betting purses supplemented by slot machine revenues – a luxury that Gural does not have."


 So in essence, Gural did a favor for the NFL, when he did not have to, while he basically screwed the owners and drivers he wants to be loyal to him. If I was them, or Pierce, I would take that as a sign that I should follow the money. Which is what he is doing. If you want loyalty, you have to provide stability and opportunity. You don't accomodate an industry that does nothing for you. Which is what Gural did. The NFL is gone now and another top driver is as well. What has been gained? I don't see it as anything more than a few million that is a drop in the bucket relative to the big picture long term goal.

http://www.northjersey.com/news/Meadowlands_track_owner_a_fan_of_Super_Bowl_Host_Committee_NFL_not_so_much_.html

The Host Committee paid to rent out the new racetrack grandstand for a major pre-game party on Super Bowl Sunday afternoon, and Gural said he is looking forward to it.
But the National Football League? Gural is not nearly as happy about them.
“Under my lease, I was obligated to close for the week before the Super Bowl, so I knew I would lose three dates,” Gural told me Friday, referring to not having the track open on Thurs-Sat, Jan. 30-Feb. 1.
“[The NFL] asked me to let them use the track for an extra four days, which eliminated two additional racing dates,” Gural added, referring to the fact that he agreed to also shut down the track on Thurs-Sat, Jan. 23-25. (Gural was able to get one date back by racing on Wed., Jan. 22.)
“I did this as a favor, which was stupid because any favor I asked of them was rejected,” Gural said. “It’s my fault I didn’t get anything for the extra few days, because I tried to be nice and did not ask for anything.”
The Meadowlands track is in its prime winter season, so Gural not only lost two dates – while settling for a less attractive makeup date of Wednesday from a third lost date – but two major ones. The track has had some success in battling tracks in other states in the region that have their betting purses supplemented by slot machine revenues – a luxury that Gural does not have.
- See more at: http://www.northjersey.com/news/Meadowlands_track_owner_a_fan_of_Super_Bowl_Host_Committee_NFL_not_so_much_.html#sthash.a2AMbvLM.dpuf
 Gural has long been vocal that he wanted to see some industry loyalty to the people who were making the effort to promote the live product and bring the fans back. In most cases, he has done that. In this case, he has not. The fans want live racing and they want it steady. He took that away from them, as well as the horsemen and owners, for no good long term reason.
The Host Committee paid to rent out the new racetrack grandstand for a major pre-game party on Super Bowl Sunday afternoon, and Gural said he is looking forward to it.
But the National Football League? Gural is not nearly as happy about them.
“Under my lease, I was obligated to close for the week before the Super Bowl, so I knew I would lose three dates,” Gural told me Friday, referring to not having the track open on Thurs-Sat, Jan. 30-Feb. 1.
“[The NFL] asked me to let them use the track for an extra four days, which eliminated two additional racing dates,” Gural added, referring to the fact that he agreed to also shut down the track on Thurs-Sat, Jan. 23-25. (Gural was able to get one date back by racing on Wed., Jan. 22.)
“I did this as a favor, which was stupid because any favor I asked of them was rejected,” Gural said. “It’s my fault I didn’t get anything for the extra few days, because I tried to be nice and did not ask for anything.”
The Meadowlands track is in its prime winter season, so Gural not only lost two dates – while settling for a less attractive makeup date of Wednesday from a third lost date – but two major ones. The track has had some success in battling tracks in other states in the region that have their betting purses supplemented by slot machine revenues – a luxury that Gural does not have.
- See more at: http://www.northjersey.com/news/Meadowlands_track_owner_a_fan_of_Super_Bowl_Host_Committee_NFL_not_so_much_.html#sthash.a2AMbvLM.dpuf

“Last year Yannick (Gingras) and (George) Brennan left to drive at Yonkers. I met with all the drivers and asked them to support my effort to turn things around which would certainly benefit them. Yannick thought it over and decided to come back while Brennan decided driving for Lou Pena and others at Yonkers was better for him. Had the other drivers made the same decision, there would be no Meadowlands,”

 -Jeff Gural

Part of the reason that one driver did not stay (Brennan) was that Gural excluded (barred would be a more accurate term) Lou Pena from racing at the Meadowlands. It was a move most of us applauded, due to the fact that the common perception is that Pena is a cheater and nobody was willing to do anything about that. Gural did. But in so doing, he sent him elsewhere, and that meant Brennan was going to follow him if he wanted to continue to ride that gravy train. Who can blame Brennan? Not me. I get that.

 http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/news/1-6-12/pena-files-lawsuit-over-big-m-barring.html

Eventually, Gural also banned Brennan, although he let him back because he really had no choice not to. The racing commission decides who can race at your track, unless you can provide a valid reason why they can't. In Pena's case Gural could--Pena hurt the product and the image of the product. In Brennan's case, he could not. He simply didn't like that he was siding with someone he had barred. 
Yonkers also banned Pena a year or so later. But the damage had been done. Brennan was mostly gone, although he still races at the Meadowlands from time to time. But Yonkers races 5 nights a week, and that is where you will find him now most nights. It is also the place you will find Brian Sears, and now Ron Pierce.
In Brian Sears case, he has never been a guy who stayed loyal to any track. He followed the money, and that meant going where the better horses and live drives were. If that was The Red Mile one day, Mohawk the next and Yonkers or the Meadowlands the day after--or anywhere--that is where he would go. Sears might be a catch driver, but he is a hired gun. He will follow the money. That is why he makes 8 million a year in purses,  which means he consistently has pulled in 400k a year for himself. He has no reason now to show up at the Meadowlands if they aren't going to provide him with the chance to keep that level going. He is in his prime, and he has to maximize that. He can't be concerned with the long term health of the industry, when he likely wont reap any rewards from that. 

Last winter at this time (January of 2013) Gural was very vocal about many trainers, and mostly drivers, not supporting his efforts by basically following the money-the slot money- to Yonkers and places like Pocono and Chester. And he is right. That is what they did and are still doing. 
And who can blame them really? They are independent contractors and they don't get paid unless they earn. And how much they earn depends on the size of the purse and the frequency with which they race.
That is the small picture view of it. 

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/trot/march-2013/driven-loyalty.html

Loyalty is important in life. That is certainly true. But so is eating and supporting a family. You are loyal to your employer to a point. And that line is that your family comes first.
Drivers put their lives on the line every time they step out on the racetrack. We might all moan about some crap drive we got, but anyone who knows anything about racing understands how brave these guys are and the risks they take on a daily basis. If they go down in a race, many can be off from 4 months to almost a year. Some never get back on the track. The best case scenario is that they go down multiple times a year and hopefully don't have crippling injuries that linger for life that shorten their careers to the point that they are 45 years old and not able to earn a living anymore. I know many just like that. 
So, there is a balance. You want to support the good of racing, because it is good for your career and earning power. But in the present, you have to earn a living and support your own career. A career where you have no guarantee of earning a cent when you wake up in the morning. You are basically a free agent every day of the week.

“I don’t think the loyalty issue goes beyond how much can I make on this night, and as short-sighted as that is, you look at some of the great drivers in the past and see how long their careers lasted. Truthfully, I’m afraid my career’s not going to last that long just by looking at the greats. Look at (Buddy) Gilmour [or] (Bill) O’Donnell. O’Donnell has this famous quip. He likes to say that if there was a great horse that raced in the 80s, he drove it. And that’s as far as that went. He didn’t drive any great horses in the 2000s, or even the late 90s, for that matter. Will that hold true for Jody Jamieson? I don’t know. So loyalty is a tough issue,”

-Jody Jamieson

Of course, Brian Sears, George Brennan and Ron Pierce aren't the only very good drivers on the planet and others will fill the void. That is not the issue. The issue is attracting the best to the mecca and showcase. That means trainers, drivers and horses. You do that by providing opportunity to compete and earn top dollar. That is the cornerstone of any business.

"In addition to Gingras, young up-and-coming drivers like Joe Bongiorno, Simon Allard and Corey Callahan are trying their hand at becoming the next big thing at the Big M.

...Callahan, who drives regularly at Dover Downs, is giving up his Saturdays in Delaware and will drive both Friday and Saturday nights at the Meadowlands to show his support for the track. “Basically, [Jeff’s] kind of taken this all upon himself to keep the Meadowlands alive and to really keep harness racing alive so the fact that he requests people to be there to put on a good product, I don’t think that that’s something unheard of,” Callahan said.
“I know that Jeff really likes harness racing and he wants to see it survive, but he’s also a very, very smart businessman and I don’t think he would have taken on a project like this not thinking there might be a good chance the Meadowlands could end up being that superstar racino,” he added."

The big picture view is that if there is no Meadowlands the industry will suffer. Everyone will suffer. That will filter down the food chain, just as it has in Ontario where top B track drivers have less opportunity now and the top 5 or 6 move around and fill those spots. The same thing will happen at Yonkers if the Meadowlands goes down. And at Woodbine/Mohawk. 
I was at Yonkers back in the late 80s. Of course the track has a lot of history and you felt that when you were there. But frankly, it was a dump and barely anyone cared about the racing there. The only reason it is flourishing now is because of the casino money that underpins the purses. Take that away, and it is back to being a track that was once great but nobody cares about anymore. Very similar to Windsor Raceway and Roosevelt back in the 80s. 
In Ontario, the money got pulled off the table, and so did the opportunity. You can be sure that will happen at Yonkers, and as well at The Meadows (which is now happening) and eventually Ohio, which is flourishing currently due to casino money.

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/news/1-29-13/meadows-purses-drop-10-cent.html

I have also been to the Meadows several times, and even on Adios day (their big day) their isn't that much interest. It is way past its heyday and everyone knows that. The casino money has propped it up for a couple of years, but that is certainly coming off the table and likely the same thing that happened at WEG will happen there.

Racing 4 nights a week, 52 weeks a year..and give drivers a bonus if they have a certain amount of starts at your track. make it worth their while to stay. Everyone wins. Scott Zeron (the top driver at WEG in the last two years) decided to leave in November because he could see the chance to make money was slipping away. He headed to the Meadowlands and also races around that area,  which includes Yonkers and also Pocono and Chester when they race. 

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/news/10-21-13/scott-zeron-heading-big-m.html 

 “This was difficult for me,” said Zeron. “Canadian racing has been my home and it’s not going to be easy leaving. But I have to do what is best for the longevity of my career and I think heading to the (United) States, specifically the move to the Meadowlands is the best thing for my career.” 

 -Scott Zeron

If you are a driver, the whole point is to show them the money. Many don't like that reality, but it is a reality. Loyalty can go only so far.



When you run a big time restaurant or department store, you don't just open a few hours a day or parts of the season. You have to be there all the time, keeping your market share and letting everyone who cares know you are open for business. That is the reality that Gural and New Jersey Racing Commission officials don't get.
The same reality that WEG doesn't get. Woodbine Harness is now down to 3 nights a week, and from December 28th to January 6th, they didn't race at all. That is 10 calender days. The second card of the year was January 10th. That means they raced 1 card in 14 calender days. How would you expect to keep top drivers and trainers if you don't race for 14 days? You can't. Top drivers like Scott Zeron have left. They wont be the last. The purses have dropped, and that was understandable considering the funding was cut. Dates have also been cut, and nobody expected the track to keep racing 5 days a week like it did forever for as long as I can remember up until about 2 years ago. But, 3 days a week? And no racing on New Years Eve and New Years day? That I had not seen. That is telling your loyal customer base that you really aren't the big time anymore.
That is the same message The Meadowlands is sending. Sadly, big time racing is happening at Yonkers. Until the slot money gets pulled there, and then it wont have a home to go to. Unless racing changes its attitude and starts to be run like a business. Which I don't see. Racing seems to never get that.
Really, The Meadowlands and Yonkers should be a circuit. A circuit that goes 7 days a week where all the best drivers, trainers and horses race. And everyone wins. The fans, the owners, the drivers, the trainers and the tracks. That is the logical solution to make it work. But again, horse racing very rarely takes the logical solution. They would rather shoot each other in the foot and stab each other in the back until they are both dead and nobody wins.

“I certainly understand Jeff’s position. He’s trying to maximize wagering dollars and we bet the most by far of any track in North America. It’s not even close and he’s wanting to make sure that his show is the best it could possibly be. I understand both positions [but] I don’t think there’s an optimum solution. It’s about dollars for Jeff, it’s about dollars for Brian. They both want to maximize dollars, they just don’t want to do it at the same track,” he added.

-John Campbell 

Watching Yonkers tonight, I see many WEG horses racing there that certainly would have stayed on the WEG circuit had there been a 4th day of racing. As well, they are being driven by guys who raced at the Meadowlands and WEG (Zeron) and trained by guys who mostly raced at WEG as well. Because there simply is no choice. You can't blame them for following the money. The money trail has dried up for various reasons at the other tracks.

Jeff Gural is certainly well intentioned and has done some great things. I would never deny that. He has removed cheaters, saved the track in the first place, rebuilt the whole facility when he didn't have to do that and has generally gone the extra mile to cater to the fans and the horsemen. Yonkers owners only race because they have to to keep the Casino operating. They don't care one bit about the industry and will pull the plug on it if given the chance. 
That means that the whole industry should support Gural...as he is their future. But in the present, Gural and the industry have to realize that they must maintain a certain level of product at all times if they want to keep all factions happy. Which is neccesary if the industry has any hope for a successful future.
Sadly, even the best of racing--Gural, Sears, Pierce and all the others--don't get that.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Bob Baffert. M.D.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/23/sports/despite-the-evidence-trainers-deny-a-doping-problem.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0 

I was a horse trainer a few years ago. I did it for about 10 years. I may do it again in the future if I see the industry clean up its act. So far, I have seen none of that. If anything it got worse. Hard to believe I could say that, considering the level of cheating that was going on when I got out. Cheating that was mostly undetected.

http://articles.philly.com/2006-04-04/news/25394878_1_harness-driver-harness-racing-communications-dead-horse 

I stopped mostly because I realized that you had to cheat--on some level--to win. Most do. Of course, there are grades to that. It is sort of understood by everyone. And unless you are flagrant about it, like Seldon Ledford and some others are, they leave you alone and nobody says anything to anybody unless you are caught redhanded or someone complains and they are forced to do something about it. 
It is made very clear to you that if you speak up, you might as well leave the business because you will have no hope when they gang up on you and get you somehow. That is understood. 
At a minimum though, that almost always means not acting in the best interest and welfare of the horse. That much I know. I will touch on that later when I get to the main topic of this blog.
Back to my brief training career. I didn't ask for it. I was an owner and my trainer couldn't train the horses anymore. I couldn't find anyone else I could trust, so, reluctantly I did it myself, while I continued to do my day job. 
I did well at first. Very well. Won more than my share. And I can guarantee you that I gave nothing to my horses. I didn't even really know what was out there or how to get it. Even if I had, I likely wouldn't have bothered with it. 
Then I started to lose. The same horses that I was beating handily started to beat me. The only difference was that they had access to performance enhancers. One guy even claimed a horse off of me and turned him from a grinder who made a cheque every week and won the odd race into a bearcat who won 5 straight and moved sharply up the class ladder while doing it.
And then, that horse dissappeared off the map only to show up a year later racing for less than gas money each week--and not even winning his share of that. This horse was fairly healthy most of the time. Three years later he resurfaced around my area and I claimed him back, at a much lower level than even he had raced for me. I did okay with him again, but he wasn't the same horse. Whatever they had given him right after they had claimed him off of me had eaten away at his insides, more specifically his stomach, and he basically was living on borrowed time. I did the best I could, and he still raced good when the pain wasn't there, but within a few months he was dead. Died a horrible painful death right in front of me.
After doing well for a while, I started to lose to people I knew were not anywhere near as good as me, so I decided to just get out. So far, I have stayed out. On my way in and out, I saw a lot of horses die very painful, horrible deaths. If you have never seen a horse or dog die like this, I hope you don't. It stays with you for a lifetime.
What I also saw when I was training is that there are a lot of factors that go into winning races and keeping winning races.
But the number 1 factor in winning races is the drugs you give and the quality of your vet and his/her willingness to prescribe whatever you tell them to, find the best illegal drugs that you don't ever see on a training bill and his/her willingness to do things that are not in the best interest of the horse., Most times this benefits the owner, and it helps the trainer to build his reputation and image to gain more clients that he can earn his 5 or 10% on. But, it never benefits the horse and many times costs the owner money in the long run.
Enter Bob Baffert. I don't know Bob Baffert. I have never met him and I likely never will. But I have met many like him. Like him in the sense that they admit they do exactly what he admitted to.
What did he admit to?

 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/23/sports/despite-the-evidence-trainers-deny-a-doping-problem.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0

"Baffert told the investigators that he thought the medication would help “build up” his horses. This came as a surprise because the drug is generally associated with weight loss.
Baffert said he quit using the drug last March after the seventh horse died. At least one study indicated that the drug can cause “cardiac alterations” in horses, the report said."

Notice Baffert's language. He quit using the drug. In other words, he decided the horses needed it, and then decided they didn't when they began dropping dead for no apparent reason.
I thought it was the vets job to decide what meds a horse needed and a trainers job to get him fit and ready to run. I guess that isn't how it works.
No, let me say that again. I know that is not how it works.
Below is another quote from the article link above. This is how it actually works.

"The 26-page report said that Baffert acknowledged directing his veterinarians to use thyroxine on all his horses. Baffert, however, was the one who asked his veterinarians to prescribe it, which is in conflict with the policy of the American Association of Equine Practitioners, the industry’s most influential veterinary group, which says treatments “should be based upon a specific diagnosis and administered in the context of a valid and transparent owner-trainer-veterinarian relationship.” 

Again, note the language. Should be based on a valid transparent owner-trainer-veterinarian relationship. If you have ever been on the ground level, that isn't how it works. 
 

In reality, trainers control vets and the vets will do whatever the trainer asks. If you don't believe me, listen to what the vet said when he got caught injecting a joint on race day at Tampa Bay with one of Jane Cibelli's horses.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/florida-investigation-vet-said-cibelli-told-him-keep-me-out-of-it/

"Association veterinarian Kristen Pastir and veterinary assistant Joelyn Rigione walked by Stall 46 in that same barn around 9:10 a.m. Jan. 27, 2013, just as Paraliticci and his assistant, Marcos Ortiz, were treating Raven Train, who was entered in the afternoon’s second race, a $16,000 claiming event. Paraliticci had Raven Train’s right front leg flexed and was injecting the area near a large nerve by the accessory carpal bone with 3 milliliters of P Bloc – an anti-inflammatory and pain blocker whose principal agent was Sarapin, a natural substance produced by Sarraceniaceae, a pitcher plant.
Jorge Garibay, who worked as a groom for Cibelli, was holding Raven Train by the lead shank while Ortiz had a nose twitch on the horse. Paraliticci, who saw Pastir and Rigione come onto the scene, finished injecting the leg. Then, switching to a larger syringe (30-to-50 cc’s, Pastir estimated), Paraliticci injected what he would later say was a mixture of the anti-bleeder medication furosemide and Solu-Delta-Cortef (a corticosteroid that is permitted on race-day in Florida) into the horse’s shoulder.

Cibelli was not in the barn when Paraliticci was treating Raven Train. After he explained to the trainer what had occurred, the native of England lit into Paraliticci, the veterinarian would later say to investigators with the Florida Division of Pari-Mutuel Wagering.
“You stupid mother——,” he quoted Cibelli as telling him. “Don’t you involve me. Don’t tell them I had anything to do with it. Keep me out of it. You better hope this stays in house.”

 Why would a vet risk his license like that? In reality, his license is worthless to him as a means to make a living if Cibelli has him cut off. She calls the shots. If he injected that horse, it is because he was told to. 
There will always be a Jane Cibelli or Bob Baffert. They aren't the problem. They are the symptoms of the underlying problem.
The problem is not the trainers. The problem is the vets who don't follow the rules and get no punishment for that. Vets are scared of trainers like them. Listen to what Paraliticci said when he was interviewed.



"A report by the state investigator said Paraliticci later told him that he is “terrified of Cibelli.” When asked why, he responded that Cibelli and Tampa Bay Downs vice president of marketing Margo Flynn – the trainer’s partner – “have threatened many people with being thrown off the track and being excluded from TBD. They threatened to ruin his business…they have a lot of power.”

Why aren't they revoking the vets license for life? He isn't following the rules. Nobody answers that. He took an oath as a doctor and he has violated that. So has Baffert's vet. I don't see any sanctions against him either.
What would happen if Paraliticci just decided to say no to Cibelli? Or Baffert's vet to him? Or any race track vet to any high powered trainer like them?
Simple. They will lose huge business because of the clout trainers  have that those trainers know they have.
If a trainer is asked why he doesn't use this vet anymore, and uses that vet now, and he tells them that he wont give you the juice, or inject that horse on race day, or inject a joint that will basically make that horse a sure winner today and dead within a month or two, then he is basically out of business.
Trainers control vets, not the other way around. That has to change.
How? They have to be stung. That is the only way. The fear of losing your training license forever is the only way to root these types out.
Now, lets be clear. I am not talking about the high end vets, that have their own clinics and are mostly the types to determine lameness and do surgeries. I suppose some of those also do some of this, but mostly, they are a niche market and they make piles of money as it is, so they don't have to.
I am talking about the average race track vet, the one who makes the rounds, gives the injections, injects joints, runs jugs, injects veins, gives lasix. that type of vet.
How does it work and who benefits? The trainer pads his bill with vet work that isn't done, or inflated. The vet makes more, and the trainer gets a kickback on part of that. They call it a rebate to the trainer. It is one big shell game. And once that happens, the trainer has the vet by the throat,  and they know it.
Many ask: Why do the trainers do it and how can they sleep at night.
I ask those who ask that question: Do you know anything about these people?
Most do not. If you did, you would know that most of them are very hard working people. Honest. They don't want to cheat. They want to do it on the up and up.
I have an education and money and options. I could easily get out. They cannot. It is all they can do and know how to do. When you realize you either cheat to stay in that game or you will be in for some serious hard times, most panic and cheat.
Back towards the end of my training career, I knew of a guy who was very honest. His family had been in the horse training game for at least two generations. He is and was a good guy. He had a young family and he was making his way. He was successful enough for a while, but then his numbers began to slip. He didn't need a map to figure out why. They had the juice and he didn't. But he knew where to get it.
And where was that?
The top guy who was always cheating and getting away with it was also a master chemist. He had his own lab on his property and he knew exactly what to give and get away with it. He also was willing to sell it to certain people for a fee. He didn't tell you what it was, and you would never be stupid enough to say where you got it. He told you how to use it and when not to use it. It was called "the clear" and you paid him $5,000 at certain intervals to get it. 
This young trainer got caught in a sting and luckily for him, they screwed up and the evidence was inadmissable. But before that, he had admitted to the whole thing.
You either go along or you lose. Those are your choices. But what if you can't afford to lose? If so, then you have nothing to lose by cheating.
Unless you get that horse that is so good that it doesn't matter. But how many get that horse? And if they do, how many get two of them?
Trainers and vets aren't separate entities. They work together in a business relationship. And in most of them, the trainer needs the vet to succeed, but the trainer is the boss. He can pull the plug and fire you, go to another vet, and pretty much put you out of business.
When it comes to medications and injections, trainers are the actual vets.
Vets are pharmacists. Trainers place an order, vets fill it. 
If the vets wont, the trainer will just go to another pharmacy.
Until that changes, nothing will change. Trainers will cheat. Horses will drop dead. Vets will be pharmacists and a few people will get caught every now and then while most get away with it and claim they are clean. 
What are the racing officials doing while all this goes on? They are busy figuring out how to raise the admission price to tracks that less and less people are going to anyway because they can't be bothered figuring out who are the inmates and who are the guards. 
And in the year 2014, a whole lot more horses will just drop dead from the latest drug they don't need prescribed by trainers who never got a degree and supplied by vets who ignore their oath and sanctioned by racing commissions who don't think there is anything wrong with any of that.
 


Monday, December 9, 2013

Perception is perception, Reality is reality. Handicap Accordingly.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/gritty-honor-code-battles-back-to-win-remsen-stakes/

Gritty Honor Code Battles Back to Win Remsen Stakes

That was the headline on the Paulick Report article a few hours after the race. It was the prevailing opinion of most. Not me though. I didn't see it that way at all.
And my bet is that neither did Honor Code's trainer or jockey. They know better. Even if they didn't say so.
Before the Remsen, there were two fan factions that I noticed distinctly. They can be summarized as follows.

1) Honor Code was a lock and possibly the next great horse who is likely to sweep the Triple Crown next year. These people saw him as unbeatable and the race was for second. You see this sort of fan hype all the time. Until the horse bombs out.

or


2) Cairo Prince was the type of horse who just gets better, was underrated at the moment and he would step up and blow right by Honor Code.
As usual, the truth lies somewhere in between and below both of those expectations. In other words....REALITY.

Here is how I saw the race. The actual race. Not really my perception. Mostly my view of the facts based on 30 years of handicapping and race viewing experience, 25 years of owning horses and 10 years of training and grooming horses every day until I decided I didn't want to do it anymore.
 


Honor Code got bumped or stumbled a touch coming out. But he was right into the pocket. The rest floated out there and had no intention of contesting the pace. So, a longshot who was not going to be there at the end either way cut the fractions and went pedestrian speed. 
Castellano therefore had no choice but to angle out of the pocket because of that slow pace and get in position to take the lead before he got trapped in. Which is exactly what he did when Honor Code was told to do so. On his back, Cairo Prince was in perfect position, getting the trip, while Wicked Strong stayed in but was well within range and was by no means trapped. He angled out when he wanted to make his bid. He could have moved earlier. His jockey didn't want to.
The top of the stretch came, Honor Code was rolling now. Many have mentioned that the race was a sprint from the half on. It was. So, Honor Code was making his run. There were no tactics at this point. The one that ran the fastest from the half on was going to win. Honor Code started that full out run with the advantage. He had the lead. A clear lead.

“That was a tough beat. The winner is a good horse, but that was a tough one. I thought we had it won.”

-Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer of Cairo Prince

As they started to make their way down the stretch, it was clear that Cairo Prince had way more left than Honor Code, who was passed easily. Honor Code either couldn't or wouldn't fight him off. Cairo Prince looked to be an easy winner. Honor Code was beat. 
But then as Cairo Prince was going by Honor Code he started to bear in and was straightened up, and for whatever reason, he stopped running. When that happened, he brought Honor Code back to him. If Honor Code had grit, he never would have let Cairo Prince head him. If Cairo Prince had the speed for the distance off a very easy trip and had kept running straight he would have won by two or three lengths under very little urging. That didn't happen. Cairo Prince lost his momentum and stopped running.
Neither horse raced good at all, and in fact, they floated to the wire beside each other. Neither were impressive at all. Unless one or both had an excuse such as a wind or lameness issue, I am not impressed at all. The fact that they went a fast last 1/8th means little when they walked most of the race to the top of the stretch. They both had virtually the same trip and ran the same fractions.
Wicked Strong raced good, but maybe he wants more distance. Maybe. He still ran 3rd when he had a clear shot as well.
That is the race that happened. Perception is perception, reality is reality. That is the reality.

If you read the post race comments it is telling. Sure, trainers, jockeys and owners say lots of things they don't mean, don't believe and are told to say (the things they aren't saying to each other in private or thinking to themselves that they don't share with most) but they also say things that tell you why what happened on the racetrack happened. Those are things that fans and bettors don't like to hear, and sometimes even refuse to accept. But they are what happened. Things like,

“"We just said we were going to let him run his race."

That is what Shug said after the race. I believe that to be true. What you have to understand is that the Remsen isn't the ultimate goal. The Derby and the Triple Crown races are. The Remsen is just another step on that ladder.
So that is what they did. They let him run his race and they wanted to see what they had. Despite what they say otherwise, they could not have been happy with the way he was passed off a very easy trip.
Perception is something that people do when then they don't actually do it or know how to do it. It is an educated guess. or an uneducated guess.
Reality is what people who actually do it know. They know.
Trainers say what they will say. but what they actually know is a completely different thing.
Cam Fella is acknowledged as one of the greatest standardbred horses to ever race. He was super tough to beat, and in fact won his last 28 races in a row. Yes, 28 races in a row against the best horses that were out there, week in, week out. Nobody doubts how gritty and tough he was. But, on the night of one of his most memorable wins, was he tough or just lucky to meet a horse who was fast but not tough at all? 
Watch the race below.
 

Did Cam Fella come back on and show his grit? Or did It's Fritz stop? You tell me.
But first, watch the driver on Its Fritz. All the time he was sitting second to Cam Fella he kept looking over his shoulder, repeatedly. Why? Because he wanted to make sure he didn't get trapped in. But, he knew that he should save the horse as much as he can. Why? Because he knows the horse needs a trip and can't go all the way to the wire with those types if he moves too early. Which he did. He had no choice. The guy in third was clearly edging out and Its Fritz had no choice but to go early or take his chances of getting trapped. 
So, he went. But even after he opened up two or three lengths in the deep stretch and appeared to have it locked up, the driver was nervous. Cam Fella had been put away, but still the driver kept looking back to see how close it was. 
Then, It's Fritz stopped, kind of like Cairo Prince did. Cam Fella didn't show any grit. Not that night. He did many times in his career but not on this night. He simply passed a horse who was completely spent and moved earlier than he was capable of moving. It is easy to see this, because Its Fritz didn't even hold on for second and the fourth horse almost caught him as well. 
If you want to see what grit and toughness really look like, watch a horse like Private Zone.


"Private Zone comes back. A courageous victor here."


-Tom Durkin.

You're darn right. When Justin Phillip came to him and looked like he was going by, Private Zone never let him get by. He got a head in front, but he kept fighting and fought him off. That is grit.
But it wasn't the first time Private Zone had done that. He did the exact same thing in the Pirates Bounty at Delmar. I couldn't find the video of that race, although I know it is out there because I have seen it posted. Private Zone did the exact same thing when he refused to be passed even though he had a very tough trip. After a poor effort in the Breeders Cup when he didn't get the kind of trip he liked, Private Zone came right back on the same card as the Remsen and raced a super 2nd to Flat Out in the Cigar Mile, holding on gamely to beat all but the winner. That is grit and toughness. 



My point?
Horses who are gritty and tough might get headed, but they never get fully passed. If they get fully passed, they aren't gritty..or ...they are done and can't muster the effort--no matter how much grit--to withstand. Cam Fella was certainly gritty, but on that night he just didn't have it. Lucky for him, It's Fritz was a one trick pony who had one big run in him and once that was done, he was done. Cam Fella kept going the same speed, just as Honor Code did and that was good enough for a win. Not a gritty win though. A win of attrition. 
I watched many of Its Fritz's foals race and the majority of them raced just like him. Go to the front, one big burst and hold on for dear life. They are what they are.

That is much different than letting a horse go earlier in the race and then coming on again tactically to take him when you want to. But--and this is an absolute--when a horse begins his move and takes the lead, is driving and heading for the win--in the stretch--and he gets headed, we find out how much grit he has. Some repel the challenge, like Private Zone did in the Vosburgh......but if your horse gets completely passed while in a full stretch drive to the point he is at least a length behind--like Cam Fella did and Honor Code did-- then the only way he wins is if something happens to the horse that passed him. It isn't about grit anymore. It is about luck or another horse failing.
As for Cairo Prince, he is very young and green. Listen again to what his jockey Luis Saez said about him.
  
 “[When he made the lead], he tried to wait on the other horse. Last time [in the G2 Nashua], he took the lead and opened up five, then stopped a little bit. Today he was doing the same. The other horse, he beat me on the wire.”

You have now read two comments from the connections of Cairo Prince. While not knocking Honor Code, neither mentioned anything about grit. 
Because he is green, that can be trained out of Cairo Prince. If that is in fact the case. If he just can't run a mile and a quarter at that level, then that is different. We will probably find that out in February or March (if he lasts that long) when he meets others who can.
But either way, in this race (The Remsen) Cairo Prince passed Honor Code fairly easily, then was bearing in and starting to ease up and Honor Code simply kept going the same speed. The fact that Honor Code came back on and beat Cairo Prince says something about Cairo Prince and Honor Code.
Honor Code made his statement when he got an easy trip and made an easy lead only to be passed midstretch without a fight. That is what I saw. Not perceived. Watch the race. That is what happened. No matter what the trainers or jockeys say in public, that is exactly what happened. 
As mentioned, it either means Cairo Prince is green, lacks desire to win or that he can't go the distance. The jury is out on him for now. 
What happened afterwards can be debated, but that doesn't have anything to do with grit. If Honor Code had grit, and enough to beat Cairo Prince (as he ended up doing) then he would have fought him off when he came to him midstretch. He didn't. It is as simple as that. I didn't see any grit. I saw one horse stopping or easing up while the other one just kept going the same speed.
In fact, if they ran another quarter of a mile, the 3rd horse, Wicked Strong would have passed them both. He is the one to watch going forward. At this point, if better horses come along, all 3 would likely be passed easily. 


Anyone who trains, rides and drives horses knows that.


The day before the Remsen and Cigar Mile, a horse named Doubledown Gass raced at Woodbine and got beat. But, he raced the only way he can to be at his best, at this point in his career anyway. 
He went as fast as he could with little rating until he ran out of gas. He had used that tactic a few times with mostly success. He just isn't the type of horse that likes to follow others.
That is the reason that some horses you don't sit a trip. They like to lead and will only try if they are leading.
His owner/trainer/breeder and driver Reg Gassien knows that. He has been around long enough and he would likely get him a trip if he thought the horse would benefit from it.

Long ago, Gassien was known as "The Gas Man" when he was a regular driver on the Woodbine/Mohawk circuit. In those days it was the Greenwood/Mohawk circuit and he was one of the top 5 drivers for many years. He knows better than to try and wire the field and bottom them out every time, unless he knows he has no choice but to do that. 
The start before the one below that I am going to post the horse was rank and hard to handle. So, the next start, he just opened up as much daylight as he could and tried to hang on, which he did. He had repeated that tactic just about every time since. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But he knows there is no alternative.

"He's going as far and as fast as he can on the lead."

-Ken Middleton.

On that lead, he was very gritty and barely got nailed on the wire. If he had saved ground or rated him would he have lasted? Likely not. He tried that tactic later and he was easily passed by weaker horses. 



Cairo Prince and Honor Code both got perfect rides and either of them should have won going away if they were any good. They didn't and they hit the wire together after exchanging leads. It certainly wasn't the jockeys faults. Anyone who says otherwise wasn't watching the race. I heard a lot of that jockey blaming for both of them racing poorly. I can't see how anyone would ride either of those horses differently. They both had easy trips and were in perfect position to win. That is all you can ask of any jockey or driver.
So, what does this all mean to the handicapper? Well, the prevailing opinion is that both of them raced very good. Cairo Prince eased up, but he ran a big race. Honor Code was gritty and came back on to prevail. They will both be overbet the next time or two because of that perception.



Much the same way Orb was after the Kentucky Derby when everyone thought he ran a huge race. Then, after the Preakness they blamed the jockey for a poor ride when he saved him. Same thing he did in the Derby, except it worked that day and it didn't in the Preakness when he lost momentum. The jockey knows he had to. Orb didn't have enough to win on his own, and in fact didn't win a race after the Derby with all sorts of trips.


He was consistently outrun and overbet because of the incorrect perception on what he did on Derby day. He ran basically the same race 3 times. Once it worked, once it didn't, and the third time he was outrun. He continued to do that until everyone figured out he was just a good horse in a so so crop, not a great horse in a good crop.
The only excuse I would give Honor Code was if he had a wind issue, either caused by bleeding or choking or something like that. I didn't hear any mention of that, but that doesn't mean it wasn't happening. That is the kind of information that trainers don't share with the public. They go and get it fixed if it is the case, and then if the horse runs way better the next time, they tell you that was the reason. Afterwards.
Did that happen in this case? I don't know. Maybe. We can never know that unless somebody tells us. 

Until such time, Honor Code (to me) is a nice horse who ran well but didn't show any fight when he was challenged and outstaggered another pretender, both of who look to be horses that won't get the Derby distance at that class level.
If they are both running on Derby day, we shall see if I am right. 



http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/no-excuses-for-orbs-jockey-club-gold-cup-derby-winner-ships-to-fair-hill/

 Orb, who bobbled at the start of the race, was placed three wide in fifth place for the first six furlongs of the 1 ¼-mile race and then faded. He was beaten 22 ¼ lengths by winner Ron the Greek.
 After the Derby, Orb progressively disappointed, culminating in his last race, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where his connections said this publicly:

“Orb seemed to come back fine,” Tenney said. “He cooled out fine, and we put him on the van and sent him back to Fair Hill [Md.] last night. Really no excuses we could see.”

No explanation for Orb's poor performance. That is what Shug and his owner said. Publicly. 
Privately, I am sure he told the owners that the horse isn't that good, he got somewhat lucky on Derby Day and there is no point racing him further because he won't be that competitive and will significantly hurt his stallion value. The longer he would have raced, the more he would have taken the lustre off his Derby Crown.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/orb-works-toward-cigar-mile-start/ 

In spite of his terrible performance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, they were pointing Orb towards the Cigar Mile, but a few weeks before, they just decided to retire Orb. Because they know in private what they weren't saying in public. He isn't as good as the hype he created and they better cash in before everyone else figures that out. They will never say that in public. They will say that he would have made a great 4 year old. Which is total bullshit. If he was, they would have kept racing him.

“I thought he worked fine,” said Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey of the Malibu Moon colt, most recently eighth in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup on September 28.....
“I’ll make up my mind in a couple of weeks,” said McGaughey. “I’ll just fool with him and see where it takes us.”

Translation: He works good. He seems good, but he races and then he isn't good enough. I am at a loss to explain it other than he just isn't good enough or as good as we thought he was or was going to be. 
He would never say that in public. But retiring him said that for him. 
Before the race, people were saying Honor Code would be too far back. Well, he wasn't this time. He was sitting second, and because of the slow pace, he had to pull out of the pocket. What if he didn't? The leader would have accelerated, the outer flow would have come to him, and Honor Code would have been trapped. Certainly, that wasn't going to happen., The Remsen was a race to see what they had in Honor Code. If he gets trapped in and boxed in, they wouldn't know. So, he pulled. As he should. And he didn't work terribly hard to get to the lead by the top of the stretch. If he was the champ they claim he is, and was, he would have pulled away. He didn't. He was challenged and passed very easily. 

What does all this mean to a handicapper? Well, I would suggest that Honor Code is going to be overbet in his next two starts, because he is now perceived as gritty and likely to get the distance, when I contend he is not that gritty and won't get the distance. For me,  unless he shows otherwise, he is a toss out for the Kentucky Derby, and hence, others are an overlay if you can justify them on their own merits.
I will watch Cairo Prince to see how he responds to getting a lead next time and what the jockey does when he gets it. You can be sure there will be no gearing down or easing up until the race is over. He will be ridden out regardless, to teach the horse he is to keep running until he is told to stop. That is what training is all about. 
Trainers need to be real about what they have. So do owners. And even if fans never will be, if you want to be a successful handicapper, it is a must to be realistic about what happens on the track. If you don't do that, you are giving away value when it is just being handed to you on a silver platter.  
Just like Cairo Prince did in the race.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

What would you do? Exactly what they did.

With the retirement of Orb, people are knocking the owners of the horse and the industry as a whole. I will grant the industry argument, but as for the owners, if you are knocking the owners of Orb, then it is likely you have never run a business and certainly never actually owned a racehorse, let alone a high caliber one like Orb.
So, I will explain it to you like someone who has. I have run a business and I have owned many racehorses.
Here is the reality. Most racehorses lose money. The ones that don't walk a tightrope where any day they can be worthless to the owner. Many simply keep earning but don't earn much and will eventually lose you more than you put in until they are completely worthless. 
Now, if you were the owners of Orb, what would you do?
Lets look at the numbers. The horse has made $2,612,516..before expenses...to this point. Factor in what it cost to acquire him-in this case breed him as they owned his dam--add in all the training fees, insurance, stakes payments, entry fees and all the rest and they likely cleared about 1.8 million to this point. That's great. Most wont ever do that on any horse. 
And he is still valuable. And his greatest current value--is as a stallion. As a racehorse, he is likely not even worth 700k, and that was being generous. Racehorses are worth what they can be expected to earn, less expenses and depreciation. Simple as that. In all likelihood, Orb as a racehorse (if he was a gelding) is worth about 450k.
And now the owners sit with Orb. What are his future prospects?
Well, he won the Kentucky Derby. Good for him. That makes him pretty valuable as a stallion prospect. Take that away and his stud fee would be at least half as small as the 25k they will get for each foal that stands and nurses. But even so, he did very little after that, and in fact doesn't appear to be a horse that could earn anywhere near 500k (before expenses) next year. And then likely be done and much less valuable as a stallion. 
Most horses that race the Derby trail and most of their 4 year old year don't last past 4 and even if they do, they can't keep up that level. Orb already started to show that right after the Derby and only got worse. At best he is an also ran with his own aged class, and as aged would have to face all the best out there. Again, the more he loses, the lower his stud be would be when he is done. Right now, he is still the Derby winner and that means something. Not the horse who lost the Preakness, Belmont and wasn't dangerous for the rest of the season. And he isn't the 4 year old that got whipped by a whole host of horses. 
Yet.
And if they race him as a 4yo and he continues to flop and be, at best, one of many in a pretty weak crop of 3 year olds? What then? Then, he is pretty much worth about 10% of what they can get for him today. As a stallion.
So, without the risk of ever racing him again and paying all the bills that come with that, they are going to pull in at least 2 million dollars a year before expenses. That is for 2 or 3 years before we find out if he is a lousy sire..or...one that hits big and then they win the breeding lottery and really cash in. But even if he flops..and they don't win the lottery, they will be ahead 5 or 6 million by then. That is if he only gets 100 mares in foal each year and they produce babies that live and stand. If he gets 150 in foal, then they will be ahead another 3 or 4 million. And if they shuttle him to a place like Austrailia or South America, you can add even more to that.
And yet, you want them to just keep racing him? Why? Because it pleases you and makes you feel better to see him race? Great. Good for you. 
If you want to see him stay racing, then you have two options. 
First, you can offer them 4 million now, and they might take that. And then you can spend 3 years trying to make that back, and realize you have to earn at least 5 million to do that. 
How many thoroughbreds have ever earned 5 million dollars after their 3 year old season? Not effing many. Certainly, Orb doesn't look like one who would even approach that total. But, if you really want to see him race, then go ahead, blow your fortune on that. 
Second, you could not support the racing system until they up the purses for older horses to the point that they don't have to be insane superstars to make the kind of money that stallions can make. Good luck with that. It has not happened in many years and it doesn't appear to be heading in that direction.
So, if you were the owners of Orb What would you do? 
Exactly what they did.

Friday, October 4, 2013

Not betting favorites and making that work for you.

At most tracks, the favorites win around 35 to 40 percent of the time. But what if you could figure out which ones to stay away from and which ones to play against. So, you could predict whether or not the favorite would win or lose correctly 75 percent of the time?
If you could do that, how valuable would this information be and how could you use it to make money, if you could?
You would think it would be worth something in terms of increasing your profit.