There's always a But: I don't make New Years Resolutions, but.....

When Dave Schwartz first interviewed me for his podcast, he asked me what he asks all his interview subjects. Are you a winning player? 

I answered yes, but with a caveat. 

Yes, overall, I am a winning player, and I laid out the reasons I think that is the case in the rest of the podcast, and in the 2nd one we did. But, the caveat was and still is, that I only win as long as I do the things I know I should do and that work. As soon as I deviate from that, I begin to lose. In many ways, that is different from many or the average player out there. They do what they think works, but it just doesn't. For me, what works works and all I really have to do is do those things and continue to generate newer and better ways to stay ahead of the pack, and then add those things and do them in addition to what already works. 

But like most people, and horseplayers, I have weaknesses. My worst one is that sometimes I think I can get away with not doing what I do---and do best, and just make bets because they look good at a glance. What I do best is watch replays, study horses for weaknesses and fatal flaws, assess odds to determine value, gather data and figure out probabilities. When I do all those things, overall, I win a lot more than I lose. So, why do I make the "stupid bets" the "bets I want to take back" the "bets I regret immediately and after the fact". 

Why do I do that?

Like many, I can be impulsive and lack some level of discipline. Over time, I've figured out that it boils down to just those two things. In every instance, I let up, fell back into the old bad habits that forced me to become a better player in the first place, and thought I could just "get away with it"....which I know, and you know, and we all know, you can't. It just doesn't work that way.

As I've transitioned into playing and watching only Thoroughbreds, which is completely a new thing for me (I will get into why that is in another blog down the road) I've been very mindful that its even more important not to make impulsive or badly disciplined bets that I know better than to make. So, since its been about 2 months now, and I've played slowly, carefully, and sparingly, and in relatively small amounts for what I normally do and will again, I was progressing well until a day about 3 weeks ago. 

Note that under the blue line, its just story to illustrate my main points in this blog, but you don't have to read that if you aren't interested in the story. You can skip over that part if you wish.

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It was a Tuesday. That much I remember. I had been doing well, getting almost all of them right, but with small 2 dollar bets, which is how I play when I'm "testing" something new. I know you need to play with real money even in the testing phase, to keep it real, but I don't want to lose too much in the process of sharpening up what I think I've learned and/or finding holes that I know will be there before I move back up to much bigger sums. Tuesday is a day that I wouldn't play much or at all with the T breds, as the tracks I follow....Gulfstream, Laurel, NYRA,  and Charlestown don't run that day. I think Mountaineer might have been running that night and I will play that track occasionally, I don't recall, but during the day, on Monday and Tuesdays, I use those days as prep for the days towards the weekend when all those tracks run at the same time. That is just too much work and prep to do all at once, so I spread the work out for those on the off days that are Monday and Tuesday for me, and partly on Wednesday, as there is no Laurel or Aqueduct on those days. 

On this afternoon, I was left with playing PARX and Mahoning Valley if I wanted to do more testing. I did. I didn't end up making any Mahoning bets, so it came down to PARX, which I really don't like playing for various reasons that I might touch on with another blog. Mainly, the morning line (ML) there is horrendous, the purses are grossly overinflated, and the cheating among trainers is over the top, even for an industry that has some of that at every track. In that respect though, PARX is the Al Capone of tracks compared to most which are the low level, street punk mafia types. But, I still wanted to test and make some plays, so PARX it was. 

I was out doing some errands, so I missed race 1. Race 2 was a small field which became much smaller. It started out as 7, then there were two scratches, who were 2 of the lower priced ML horses. That left 5 of them, of which 2 looked to have zero chance. That left 3 to choose from. I didn't like Miss Al Dila at all, who was the 2nd ML choice. She went off at a clear 3rd choice but was no good as I expected in the race. 

I watched the replay of the heavy favorite, Sheplaysthefield, who was dropping from NYRA into a soft spot at PARX, and she had okay form, although I didn't like how she ran and finished in her last start, which was now 10 weeks ago. Her trainer, Chris Englehart, a very high percentage guy, likes to use this angle, so, I expect that he will do it and I am mindful he can make it work at times. Still, I didn't like how she raced the time before, so, I would need odds to play her. She was likely to go off even money, which was her ML anyway, but early on, she was in the 1-5 range, and only drifted up towards the end of the cycle. The only other horse that looked viable to me was Queen Fantabulous, and in reality, she was the correct play if there was one in this race. She was 6-1 ML, but with one of the scratches being a lower ML than her, and the 2nd ML being a bad rating, I knew she was likely going to be in the 5-2 or 3-1 range. She had reasonable form and a legit shot, although the favorite clearly outclassed her on the program with recent efforts. I had these two horses to choose from if I was going to make the win bet. The rest didn't seem viable or playable. 

My normal discipline tells me to layoff a race like this. I don't like playing short priced faves who have iffy variables, and I don't play my 2nd choice unless I get my value price. Queen Fantabulous was in the 2-1 range, and that was too low. So, the right thing to do, was to make no play. The wrong thing to do, which is what I did, was bet the fave to win. She drifted up to even money, and that was okay value. I played her. As expected, from the get go, Sheplaysthefield ran poorly, was never involved or contentious, and even missed the board. On top of that, even money became 1-2 at the bell, and she was horrendous value. Queen Fantabulous won easy, and paid $6.70.

Clearly, a bad discipline play on my part, even though I had done my homework and wasn't impulsive. 

Next. 

Race 3 was a field of 8, but scratched down to 6, with an entry that made it 5 betting interests. Maiden claiming 2yo fillies, the toughest of the toughest to handicap as a rule. Especially at PARX. Nevertheless, I did the work, to see what shakes out. The longest shot I watched run at Belmont. My comment on her was..."never had any run" and I didn't see a drop to PARX as going to make any difference. Even at Charlestown, she might be 99-1. Nuff said. Toss. 

One of the scratches was the ML even money fave. So, the rest that are left were actually much longer shots relative to the entry when you remove the scratched fave. I looked at two others, and they looked, at best, to be hoping to beat half the entry for 3rd money. At best. That left the 6, Family Fortune, who had okay form on paper, but looked very suspect running her last race and in the post parade. I could see her being last, which she ended up close to being. 

That left the entry. Neither were spectacular, or even impressive, but they both had legit excuses and looked okay. I could see them running 1-2, but if not, 1-3 and one of them was going to pull through. However, the win price was 1-5, and could have ended up 1-9. No thanks for me on that front. At PARX, even in a 6 horse field with an entry, they will leave up show betting. The bridgejumpers jumped in, as you would expect, even though some of them got burned in the previous race, as I mentioned above when Sheplaysthefield missed the ticket. As they left the gate, the entry had 80 percent of the show pool, you got 2 for the price of one, they had a high percentage trainer and solid jockeys, and both had better form than the entire balance of the mediocre field. So, I wanted to get my $2 back with this bet, and I played $50 to show on the entry. I think it was a valid bet in terms of weighting with my $2 bets otherwise. 

The entry ran 1-3, with the winner an eased up 3 length winner, and the 3rd place horse 22 lengths in front of the 4th horse. It was never in doubt. It was about as good a percentage play as you can find. I don't play on the bridgejumper side often, but there are times when its a good play, and this was one of those. 

Before I move to the last example of that day, lets look at what I've done. I made a bad discipline play on Race 2, and lost $2. I made a very good, high percentage, well researched and thought out play in Race 3, and made $2.50. An overall return of 12 percent profit on the two bets. But, it should have a net profit of $2.50 and not .50, because I hurt myself by making a bad discipline bet in Race 2. That is the valuable part of all of it. Not the money. The lesson. Don't hurt yourself. There are enough ways to lose on your own without doing that. 

I had a few things to do, so I skipped races 4 and 5, as they didn't look like races where I wanted to make a call at this point in my development. The night before, I had looked over the entire PARX card, at a quick glance of each race, which is always what I do when I prep, in terms of thinking of where I want to end up putting my energy. I noticed race 6 right away, as it seemed like a horseman's freebie. For those who don't know what that is, for whatever reason, they sometimes write races where a very successful and dominant horse can actually drop severely in class without going in for a claiming tag, and take a stroll around the track for 1st money. On paper, this looked like a race like that. The horse in question is called Ruby Bleu, a 3yo gelding who had just won a 47k purse at PARX 7 days earlier, and had won today's condition, a 32k starter allowance about a month before. 

He also was a very high percentage winner, and top 3 finisher. On paper, he looked bulletproof with this bunch. However, paper doesn't win races, horses who can reproduce their form...and thus, performance, win races. I thought originally he would be 1-9 when I breezed over the race the night before, and thus, I didn't even bother to handicap the race, or even watch Ruby Bleu's replays. That would come back to bite me, as when I came back inside and the race was 0 mtp, he was 3-5 instead of 1-9, and looked like a good play. But how would I really know that, unless I verified that the horse on the program was the horse that was running this day? I wouldn't. I didn't watch him in the walking ring, or post parade, or even race last time or the time before. He could be a 3 legged cripple, or very sore, or tired, or a bad actor. As it turns out, he never ran a step, and was running in horrible the entire way, and was well up the track. On the impulse of seeing his price and thinking he was good value, I made a quick decision to bet him in spite of not doing the work, doing what I need to do to win, as I mentioned to Dave in the podcast. So, my small profit on the first 2 bets was now a loss. 

If I had a do over, I skip the first bet, make the second one, and then do my homework and either skip the 3rd one or play something else that was of value in that race. I lost because I didn't do what I was supposed to do to win. 

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Its now over 3 weeks later. I don't make New Years Resolutions, but I am making one this year. 

No impulsive or bad discipline bets of any kind. 

How do I plan to live up to that resolution?

By being resolute, and by having a simple 5 second strategy of a few questions I ask myself before I confirm any bet I make. Those are:

"Is this a stupid bet" 

"If I make this bet, will I want to take it back after the fact" 

"will I regret this bet, win or lose".  

"will I regret not making this bet, win or lose".   

"have I done the work I need to do to make this bet with confidence"

"have I used my skill set to the best of my ability to determine value"

These are questions you should ask yourself every time you make a bet if you are a serious player with the intention of winning, not just playing. 

A resolution should be something where you can control the outcome. I can fully control whether or not I make disciplined and impulsive bets.

The thing about resolutions is that you need to be resolute. Or don't make them. Or make them but know you will fail because you really aren't resolute.

Resolutions aren't wishes. They are promises you make to yourself based on realistic goals and determined behaviors you deem necessary for you to succeed at whatever you choose to try and succeed at. 

Will I slip up once or twice? Maybe. Once or twice over an entire year when I make 10,000 bets is okay, as they are not going to effect my overall results in any way. But slipping up on say 1 out of 5 bets on average is the difference between profit and loss. I don't aim to lose, so, I can't slip up at the rate I have been over the years. That is one of the things I figured out when I realized why I used to lose when I should have been winning.

I will have that voice in my head, over my shoulder, that should be there, to guide me and mentor me. If it's there, I will tow the line and stick to the resolution. 

I'm not big on having regrets. As a rule, regret is a negative thing to have, and its backward looking. 

Regret is usually a bad thing, especially if its a regret from a past mistake. But, regret can be a good thing if you use it as a guide towards your future, and what hasn't happened yet. Like a resolution, you can control your intentions to avoid future regret. As a motivator and guide to think about your current actions in terms how you will likely view them after the fact, win or lose. 

To be a winning player, you have to have your personal variables in line. Even the smartest, experienced and talented players are very capable of shooting themselves in the head with bad bets that they regret making because they weren't resolute in doing what they do best. I am one of those. I hope at years end to say I was one of those. If so, I can possibly move on to a new resolution, like solving world peace. We shall see.

How much is too much. How much is enough?

How much love, do you need
Before you give your love to me
How much time, before it grows
How much love I want to know

What can I do
What can I say
The last thing I want
Is to drive you away
How much love, does it take
How much love for heaven sake

 

In the 70s hit How Much Love  Leo Sayer asks.."how much you love do you need. how much love does it take?"

That song is about love, but the concept of how much/too much is a question many of us ask ourselves. I certainly ask myself that question, and for good reason. How much has always been an issue for me.

 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2Uk696jNGA

 

When I was younger it was baseball stats. I had a notebook, more a binder than notebook, and I would record the stats in a very detailed way into that book--of every Montreal Expos player. Current, and up to date, after every game. The Montreal Expos were the passion of my youth. I would also score every game, complete. I learned all those habits from my father. He did that as well at the games. It was part of the experience. I probably wanted to be just like him, as most sons want to be like their fathers until they grow up and end up being like them. Maybe its not that I wanted to be like him, more that I am like him and I am prone to repeat the habits because of simple DNA. Maybe its a bit of both at the same time. I'm pretty close to the stage where that is a reality. I've never not been that way.

When I was a teen I took up golf. That certainly had nothing to do with my father, as he never played golf. But, I practiced like I was on the PGA tour, read every book, watched every video I could, and played every course I could get to and afford. Its certainly something that is just inside me, whether it was learned or inherited.

I recall in University, one of my professors asked me what I did to complete my paper that I turned in. I asked why she wanted to know that. She said she had never had any student do the amount of research that I did for a simple undergrad paper. I remember spending hours in the library on that one, reading all sorts of studies, experiments and newspaper articles, just so I could have as much info as I possibly could. The footnotes at the end of my paper were probably longer than the actual paper was. That is who I am and certainly who I was. The prof probably thought I paid some professional to do it for me. I was freakish about how I had to do it right.

Again, how much is too much, and how much actually results in weaker end performance? When does doing more, or too much, result in poorer results than you would otherwise get?
Just because you can buy all the candy in the store, doesn't mean you should or that its in your best interest to do so. That is a tough lesson to learn. I love candy, literally, and in this case, figuratively.

More work and study is like candy to me, like sugar to a candy freak.

 

 

Knowing your limitations is important. Realizing your maximum potential is what many strive for. I certainly strive for it. Where is the happy medium between those two seemingly polar points?

I am one of those types that wants to do as much as I can, to do it all. That is a trait I inherited from my father, who was the workaholic of all workaholics. That's not to say my father didn't take time to do things he enjoyed, like going to baseball games, watching TV, or many other things. But, when it came to work, enough was never enough. I am certainly prone to that, but, unlike him, I am aware of it early in life and try to keep it in check. Try, but, its a battle.

When it comes to horse racing, I want to master every track, every type of bet. I like a challenge, and I like to solve all the puzzles. That is what drives me. It's also what can destroy me, if I let it. Lately, I have been letting it do that.

Back in the day, that wasn't an issue because it couldn't be.There was no internet access to every track, 24/7, there was no real offtrack betting, and when that started, you had 2 tracks to bet on. Not 100.

My first real experience with it was once when I went to Pittsburgh. I went to the local offtrack shop, and that night, you had 20 screens in front of you and the ability to bet 20 tracks at once. I dabbled in that, and I probably lost every bet. That lesson never registered though. More candy was a good idea at that point. 

 

 

more, more, more,
how do you like it, how do you like it.

 

Part of the problem is that when you start down that road, you are well on the journey and don't want to turn back, even though you are running out of gas. For some tracks, I have gathered so much data, put in so much time learning everything I can and need to know about that track and its players, that I would be tossing that aside if I gave up on it. Even if that is the best thing to do...to give up on those because they don't suit me, for various reasons. It's a bitter pill to take when you know you have to take it.

 

 

 First you need, then you bleed, and when you're on your knees
(That's what you get for falling in love
You get a little but it's never enough
That what you get for falling in love)
Now, this boy's addicted 'cause your kiss is the drug
your live is like bad medicine

bad medicine is what I need.

Now, its not a total loss. Each time I've put the work in, I've learned something I can use even if I don't play that specific track anymore. It has made me better and smarter overall. The education is valuable when I take that and apply it elsewhere.

So, the happy medium part. I will still work hard, but there is only so much work I'm willing to do. I like to play also, and the play part has suffered because of the work part. I am mindful of that, and have figured out where the balance is for me. It means tossing away much of the work I've done, and only going forward with what fits into my lifestyle. I want to solve the puzzles, but I realize I cannot solve every puzzle, if it means that is all I have time for. There is more to life than just solving puzzles.

When you can do a vast majority of things well--like I can, you don't need to limit yourself to just doing one thing very well and all the time. I fell into that trap, but I have found my way to pull myself out.

 

 

 I fell into a burning ring of fire,
I went down, down, down and the flames went higher
And it burns, burns, burns,
The ring of fire, the ring of fire.

 

So, its down to 2 tracks for me, and just a few types of bets. I will live with missing scores I can make at other tracks and certain types of bets. Since I don't need the money that bad, I am giving up some money making for some time to do other things I get equal enjoyment out of.

If that goes well, and I can add a 3rd in the spring that I have always wanted to try and conquer, I will do that. But, that's it. 

 

One thing I knew early on, many years ago when I started playing the horses is that it can consume you if you let it do that. I forget that from time to time, and literally have to be exhausted before the hammer hits me on the head. That point has been reached. I also like writing. That is something else I do well and enjoy.
I have started writing more. Well, that's not true. I have been writing lots all along. I have hundreds of pretty good pieces that I just haven't finished. I love to write, but to do it well, you have to put a lot of energy into it. That also means finishing them. I just haven't finished many pieces, because by the end of the day, I was just too spent to do that. There is only so much you to go around, and the more you put into one thing, the less you have to put into others. Its a finite amount of time and energy you get to play with. That's a lesson my father didn't learn until very late in life, and something he expressed when we went out to dinner shortly before he passed away. Another older man I used to work with named Abe told me if I kept working the way I do, like I do, I would burn out. Abe told me that more than 20 years ago. My father told me what he did about 10 years ago. I didn't listen to either of them. That is my nature.

That is a valuable lesson for both horseplayers, as well as in in life. You have to decide how much goes to one thing, and how much to another. Or better said, how much less one gets if another is to get more. Horseplayers, as a general rule, are not good at taking advice of others. We always figure we are smarter and know better. I am the poster child in some ways for that.

 

 

 

Love is the drug and I need to score
Showing out, showing out,
hit and run Boy meets girl
where the beat goes on
Stitched up tight, can't shake free
Love is the drug, got a hook on me
catch that buzz
Love is the drug I'm thinking of

 

Knowing myself well, I know the temptation to stray and play more tracks will come again. It always does. Its like a very addictive drug to me. But I am very mindful of not falling back into that trap now. That is really half the battle when you are trying to beat this type of problem. Its only half though. Actually achieving it is the harder half. I'm halfway there now. I'm very mindful. This candy freak is now at least walking down the health food aisle. Not that I don't see the candy aisle in the distance. I know its there and it calls my name like the devil on my shoulder when the angel is silent.

How much is too much? How much is enough? Too much is too much when enough is enough. That's when.

 

 

If you've had enough
Don't put up with his stuff
Don't you do it
If you've had your fill
Get the check pay the bill
You can do it

Tell him to just get out
Nothing left to talk about
Pack his raincoat show him out
Just look him in the eyes and simply shout

Enough is enough is enough
I can't go on, I can't go on, no more no
Enough is enough, is enough
I want him out, I want him out that door now

In this case, the him is the person I don't want to be, the one I am also prone to be.

 

Note I used many love songs out of context in this blog to emphasize the metaphor of working too hard, just like loving too hard. Its what was out there to use, so I utilized it. Working hard is very much like loving too hard, it can hurt you more than help you if you let it.

And so, just one more, without the lyrics posted, just to hammer home the point.

 

Note the title on the page...Hell To Pay.

 

The next vice might be getting rid of using so many songs and lyrics in my blogs and posts to make a point. But that is a task for another day. One day at a time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A tale of two warriors.

We all know about warriors. They are brave. They are generally fearless. And in most cases, there is a victor and one who is slain by the victor. It is the nature of warriors that such is the case.
What makes them warriors is also what ends up taking them down. They will fight to the end. No quit in them. Only another warrior will slay them. They won't slay themselves.They rarely go quietly into a happy retirement.
Last night, two racing warriors faced the post once again. One achieved a milestone that very few ever do. One faced a sad reality that many do.
Lets start with the happy milestone warrior.
Kindly Poet has been a pretty good high end horse for many years. Almost from the time when he first started racing, he raced at the top of the food chain. At one point, he beat the best there was out there. He won the Open at Woodbine a few times when he was at his best. He even won some legs of some tough stakes series. He didn't do it often and he wont be remembered one day in any discussion of great horses. He is a very good horse who had his day in the sun. Like many others. But unlike many others, he has lasted much longer. Long enough to earn a million dollars. Which he finally achieved last night. As a now 11 year old, he has done it the hard way. No big stakes victories to pad that total.
Kindly Poet is also an exception in that he was a homebred and has only had one trainer and set of owners his whole life. That can make a difference sometimes. Less chance for taking risks and liberties that can lead to very bad results. Not a certainty, because that can happen anyway. Even with the best of intentions, accidents happen. Bones break. In Kindly Poet's case, he has certainly been lame many times in his life, and has the vet-scratch-lames to prove it. I don't recall his gait when he was a younger horse, but I certainly have noted it in the last couple of years. He definitely doesn't race and travel like a sound horse.
But, he is a warrior. He keeps showing up. Now 11 years old, he does it at a much reduced level. His wins and earnings are certainly diminished now. It even took him a couple of starts to get that last cheque to go over a million. Last night he achieved that. That can never be taken away from him.
Is it time to stop with him? Maybe. But in relative terms, he is still somewhat competitive and can earn a fair buck. He is viable enough to be raced and sound enough to keep doing it. The time will come when that is not the case. Will they stop with him before its too late? Maybe. Some do. Some don't. 
Seton Hall also raced last night. In many ways, he is similar to Kindly Poet. He is durable. He has been successful enough. He has raced 363 times, won 55 of those and made $328,000 over the course of his life. Pretty good by racehorse standards. He wasn't a great prospect as a yearling, only bringing $9,000. So, in many ways, he can be considered quite the overachiever. What he lacked in talent, he made up in grit and durability. Many warriors carry that mantra.
Some people have benefited from watching and wagering on him over the years. He raced, mostly week in and week out, for many years. More years than Kindly Poet in fact. Seton Hall was 13 years old as of last night. I say was, because while Kindly Poet was getting that cheque to put him over a million, Seton Hall broke a pastern and had to be put to sleep. Not nearly the happy event that Kindly Poet achieved last night.
Seton Hall was also different than Kindly Poet in many ways. He wasn't a homebred. He was bred to be sold, which he was. He raced well, but he was no world beater.
Seton Hall was never more than a 20 claimer. He actually never even won a 20 claimer. He won several 15 claimers, but that was about as good as he would get. He was steady. If you owned him, he made money or at least paid his way. 
And many people owned him. And trained him. At least 10 different trainers over his career. That isn't uncommon for a claimer. And for the most part, Seton Hall was a claimer. A claimer who got claimed a lot. When he was good, and classified right, he was successful and a pretty good claim. But as claimers do, he would lose value as time passed.
Seton Hall also had his share of vet scratches. But many horses do. In fact, he was vet scratched just the week before he died last night. Should he have been stopped with? Probably. We can never know for sure. But likely, his lack of performance lately, added to his advanced age, wear and tear and the vet scratch last week were signs that were ignored and he paid the ultimate price for that.
Although, in spite of his declining earning power, he had been in the top 3 in 4 of 7 starts this year. He still seemed raceable under those standards. 
Being a warrior, when put on the track he still tried to fight the good fight. He didn't just stop and refuse to race anymore. He kept trying until he was slain. Slain by the cruelest foe of all--his inherent desire that was bred into him. Compete and keep trying, even when you should stop. That is what warriors do. They go into battle, even when they know the likely outcome is their own demise. In the case of Seton Hall, it wasn't a choice he made. Others made that for him. He was just the willing and loyal soldier who obeyed the command.
We all know that is racing. Accidents happen. Horses break down. Some live to tell about it. Some don't. Some break bones for no reason other than shit happens. Most times though, horses break down because they are raced until they do.
Kindly Poet and Seton Hall had their similarities.
They both earned their money the hard way. Overnights and a few hundred or thousands at a time. Kindly Poet did it at a much higher level, but basically, they were the same type of horse.
One will now rest in peace. His warrior days now over. The other will continue to fight on. Battling the younger, stronger, fresher rivals who were just a gleam in their breeders eyes when he was at his peak.
Just four starts back, Kindly Poet won a conditioned race at Woodbine. He can still compete. But, the time will come, just like it did with Seton Hall, that maybe it isn't wise anymore to race him. He will keep trying, because that is what warriors do. It is up to us to make them stop. They wont. They will die trying. As Seton Hall did. 
Hopefully, Kindly Poet will see the day when he gets a good retirement and lives out his days. For now, he will likely continue to do what he always has. Probably the only thing he knows how to do. Race on a racetrack for money.
Last night, one warrior was slain by the cruelest warrior of them all. Father time in the racing game. You can't beat that warrior. So far, Kindly Poet has. So far.