What we can learn from Steve Coburn, Art Sherman and V. Espinoza.

There is a saying that roughly goes like this:

"Do what you do well, and let others do what they do best."

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/2014/06/09/Art-Sherman-still-a-class-act-even-after-defeat-at-Belmont/stories/201406090068

 "Everybody is talking about California Chrome owner Steve Coburn. He called the winners of the Belmont Stakes, and anybody who ran in the Belmont without running in the Preakness or Kentucky Derby "cowards" and "cheaters."
You'll see his face all over ESPN. He was splashed across Sunday’s New York Post under the headline, "Triple Clown." Fewer people today are going to talk about Art Sherman. California Chrome's 77-year-old trainer showed up at his colt's barn Sunday morning, and did exactly what you would expect an old horseman to do.
He showed how someone is supposed to act when he loses. First, he talked about his horse's condition."

Victor Espinoza is a pretty good jockey. Not great. Not top shelf.  Not a hall of famer. He won't be on call to fly across the country to ride the best horses at any given track any day, like say a Joel Rosario, or Chris Macarron or Pat Day or Angel Cordero were back in their heyday.
What Espinoza does well enough is ride horses. He certainly gave California Chrome some great rides, and I include the Belmont in that statement. I think it was known ahead of time by the inner connections (meaning Art Sherman and Espinoza) that the horse wasn't as sharp as he was in the first two legs and the races leading up to it. So, the idea was to give him as easy a trip as possible, put him in the right spot to make his one big run at the top of the stretch and hope it was enough to get there. That is exactly what Espinoza did. The horse was simply tired and not good enough on that day to pass horses he likely would have two weeks before. That is horse racing...and life. 

At least this time, nobody can accuse him of trying to gas his horse and hope he got to the line first....and fail like Stewart Elliot did on Smarty Jones and possibly Jose Santos on Funny Cide by going to the front when the horse was a come from behind horse previously.

Personally, I think both Elliot and Santos rode great races and if their horses were good enough, they would have won. Others don't always agree on that. The world is full of people with opinions who think they know something about something they probably don't know that much about. Professional jockeys at that level generally know how to ride the best race and only one horse can win. That is racing.

Now, Espinoza's fame ride is over. Chrome is injured, and the only race really left for him will be in November in the Breeders Cup, if he heals well, trains well enough and they think they have a legit shot of winning that race. That is a major crapshoot longshot on many levels. Until then, and maybe even then, nobody cares what Victor Espinoza has to say anymore. His 15 minutes is up. Did that stop him from trying to overstay his welcome on the fame train? Nope.

http://www.tmz.com/2014/06/10/victor-espinoza-california-chrome-jockey-secretariat-video/#ixzz34G1RLDed 

Since his California Chrome ride and attention is up, he feels the need to hook up with a pathetic outfit like TMZ and chime in on a great horse like Secretariat. In the article, he compares California Chrome to Secretariat, who is arguably the greatest thoroughbred of all time. Or one of..for sure.
How would he know anyway? He was barely born when Secretariat raced, and certainly never rode him. I think CC is pretty close to Secretariat, and they all lose eventually, but his words are frankly just a joke. He is neither qualified to make that determination nor thoughtful enough to figure it out, if it even can be figured out.

 "I believe he's as good as [Secretariat] ... but when something goes wrong, then it can't go 100%."

That is very Yogi Berra-ish. Except, Yogi is Yogi Berra and it sounds cute and interesting, and somewhat humorous when it comes from Yogi. For Victor Espinoza, it just sounds stupid and doubletalk-ish.

He should stick to doing what he does best, riding horses. He is out of his element, and it shows. I'm sure he has plenty of nice horses to ride this week. He should focus on that. He isn't the best in the world at it, but it is probably what he does best.

Steve Coburn is a self made man, by all accounts. He has gotten to where he is in life by making his own way. All credit is due to him for that. As well, he stands behind what he believes and says (at least until Monday morning when he did a complete 180 and backtracked on his own words). He put his money where his mouth was, bred that horse when everyone who thinks they know better told him and his partner that they were dumbasses for doing that, then put him in the capable hands of a trainer like Sherman, who got him to where he ended up. They made all the payments and danced all the dances. 
But then Coburn got caught up in the moment, and the hype, and believed himself to be the star and the show. When that slipped away in the Belmont, he began to spout off and do something he doesn't do well...speak intelligently. His charm was that he made it that far without being able to do that. When he tried to be something he wasn't--and will never be it--all fell apart for him.
Which leaves us with Art Sherman, the trainer of California Chrome..and a humble man at that. 
He did what he does best. All along.
Sherman trained Chrome and trained him easy, for a reason. He could see the horse was run down a bit, and he tried to save his energy, whatever was left, for the race. Many in social media and the opinion columns questioned his methods. 
But, who are they? 
Are they trainers? 
Do they know the actual condition of the horse? Nope. 
Many have probably never touched a racehorse or had to deal with the fallout that comes after a race when you get the horse home who just won and he can't walk, or get up, or is colicking. 
Art Sherman is one of the highest percentage trainers in the world, and he has been for a long time. If he thought the horse needed very light training going into the Belmont, that is good enough for me.
In spite of that, and all he did, the horse got beat. Anyone who races horses understands that you will lose a lot more than you will win, no matter what you do and how good you are at it. It is simply a numbers game.

After the defeat, what did Sherman have to say about it all?

http://www.newsday.com/sports/horseracing/belmont-stakes/california-chrome-trainer-art-sherman-you-can-t-be-a-hero-all-the-time-1.8375682

"The Triple Crown is a rough trail. We'll fight another day."

-Art Sherman

"After spending most of his 61-year career out of the spotlight, Sherman, 77, became a media magnet. A day after refusing to answer questions about the crushing defeat, he reflected on the best spring of his life.
"You can't be a hero all the time. I did win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, and the horse has made more than $3 million," he said. "I think I'll get a pretty good reception when I go back to Los Alamitos."

That's it. He gets back to work doing what he does best. Training racehorses, of which he still has a barn full of them that aren't named California Chrome.
Victor Espinoza has races to ride. Steve Coburn has a business to run. They are caught up in a media circus and game that throws them way out of their element and comfort zone. And it shows.

The one thing Sherman was qualified to comment on was the winning of the Triple Crown, from a trainers perspective. He didn't whine. He didn't gripe. He didn't sound like a sore loser. He just told it like it is.
His horse lost because he was tired, not because others were fresher and were waiting in the wings for him.

 "Chrome is going to have some needed rest. It's been a tough campaign for him."

-Art Sherman

 

The problem with the Triple Crown isn't that some don't race in all the legs.The problem is the time between races, and that is compounded by the new rules about making points to get in the Kentucky Derby. Because of those two factors, one that was always in place, and one that is new, you are very likely to end up with a very tired horse in the Belmont (California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide) or a lame one that either doesn't make it there (Barbaro) or makes it there and then goes lame and can't compete (I'll Have Another). In any event, as currently structured, it would take a freak to win it. 

 "Sherman was asked if he thought there would ever be another Triple Crown sweep. "Not unless there are changes made and the races are spaced farther apart," he said. "I don't think so, unless you get a really freaky horse."

"I do what I do best. I take down scores. That is what I do. You do what you do best. Try to stop guys like me."

 -Robert Deniro.... in Heat. 

Sherman also chimed in on acting classy, or not acting classy in the case of Coburn.

"He did not share Coburn's criticism of other trainers and owners. Asked about Coburn's "cheaters" comments, Sherman said, "I don't do that. I can't make excuses. ... He'll probably make a pretty good apology for that, I would think."

and how he moved forward after the Belmont....

 Same old Art," he said. "Got up, put my boots on, and I'm here. To me, being around the horses is my life. Although I did win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, I never did that before."

And the perspective he has on it all after the fact.

  "It's been a great run. I appreciate what you guys have been. Everybody has a job to do, and like myself, you try to do the best job you can. Sometimes it works, and sometimes you get beat. That's just what it is. You can't be a hero all the time. I appreciate everybody. Thanks."

Art Sherman didn't try to be profound, or witty, or a commentator on the state of horse racing, or put his horse in the perspective of the greats, even though he is much more qualified to do any of that than Steve Coburn and Victor Espinoza.

No, Art Sherman knows what he does best. He trains race horses. That is what he does best.

Mohawk Selections. June 10, 2014

I use statistics. They are a starting point for me. I am not, however, one of those who blindly follows them. I use them as a tool and a guide. When I first started to use them seriously, I did have a tendency to blindly follow them, which was a mistake. In the testing phase, I figured that out. So, I don't do that anymore. I would rather miss a horse the odd time who figures statistically but who I know as an old school handicapper is a very poor bet from a value perspective. If you don't realize that, you can get in a very deep hole chasing the probability. That is why you test. To find out things like that. The goal is to make money, not prove your theory to an absolute.

There are no absolutes when it comes to betting on sports and horses. People and animals are involved. There can never be any absolutes when that is the case. It isn't pure science. It is more math. But not completely math either. Sounds confusing. It is. Betting for money can be very frustrating and confusing at times. You just have to believe you know what you are doing and it will work if you work hard at it, stick to your guns and do the right things.

I am that. Confident. But even I, at times, don't stick to my guns and pay the price for that.
One time last winter,  I knew the 2nd favorite was way overdue to win. That is generally a good indicator to use for two reasons. First, the second favorite almost never pays less than even money, and usually is good for about 2-1 and even as high as 5-1. And secondly, it is a consistent variable over time and doesn't usually have long periods where it doesn't come through. But like any variable, there are exceptions. In this case, it had gone two complete cards and not won. More than 20 races. Since the 2nd fave wins more than 20 percent of the races at almost every track in existence, it should win 1 in 5. When it goes 0 for 10, it is significant. 0 for 20 is very significant. More than that, and you can almost be certain it will win on the next card. And that is where I sat, waiting to pounce on that 3rd card. However, almost be certain isn't the same thing as being completely certain. Exceptions abound in any system. As I handicapped that coming card, I could pretty much tell who most of the 2nd faves would be, and many of them were iffy. My gut told me to lay off them. But, you have to ignore your gut at times and just stick with the system. So, I did that. And all of those 2nd faves failed. All 11 of them. Now we were 3 cards in with no 2nd faves. I was about 6 bets in without a winner, and since I increase my bets on every loss to make sure I make a profit when it hits, I was in dangerous territory. Then came the next card. We were now something like 0 for 34, and it was about the 5th race. I did like the next 2nd fave, and there were other variables that pointed to it.  So, I played it.  And it got beat, barely. But still, barely is still not cashing. Now I was very deep in the hole. Easy to just give up at that point. But, I did not. I played the next one, because I really liked that horse anyway on old school handicapping principles, and it won. At 7-2, which meant a huge profit at the end of it all.
But more important than the huge profit, was that I learned a very valuable lesson. I don't want to be in the position where I need the next one to win or I go bust. That is a very terrible feeling and it easily can go against you to the point you don't have the capital or guts to carry on and see it through. It was an extremely important lesson in avoiding absolute thinking. Luckily, I got out of that one intact. 

So, starting today, I will blog a bit about what I see, and how I attempt to use them.

It isn't an exact science. Very few things in life are. You have to use them wisely, combine them with other factors and tools, and basically work on a percentage basis. The goal is to tip the odds in your favor, as opposed to have them stacked against you, which most betting is.

Most of us who bet money with the expressed intent of making a profit understand well that the odds are stacked against us. That is simply because a very high percentage is taken right off the top by the government and the track. In most cases, that ranges from 15 to 25 percent. That is a very tough rake to overcome. You need serious tools to beat that. No matter how good you are or think you are at handicapping races, very few can overcome that with simple, old school handicapping. There is just too much competition out there and the overlays that used to be out there have been closed up by the supercomputer, big money whales who have teams out there to spot them. 

 On to tonights card.

Here are some overall bias factors that point to some plays on this card.

1) Post 4 has not won a race on the last 3 cards. Lets take a quick look at why that matters and what you can do with that info.

Like the other inside post positions, post 4 on the WEG circuit wins at approximately 10%. Only post 5 and 6 are significantly higher, while post 8, 9 and 10 are much lower.

On any given card, that means PP 4 should win 1 race. Of course, that doesn't happen every night. Sometimes, it even goes a whole second card without winning a race. But, how often does it happen 3 cards in a row?

It actually happened twice last month. And it went 4 cards in a row in April. But that is rare. In total, post 4 has now gone 44 races without a win. The odds are highly stacked in favor of at least 1 winning on this card, most likely 2, possibly 3 and maybe even 4 winners from post 4.

So what,  you say? That doesn't give me the winner of any particular race. And that would be correct. But it tells you that there is a winner or two there. You have to find that winner.

I also keep stats on particular races. In this blog, I will note which races post 4 has also not won and then assess that horses chances and what I would consider fair value odds. I will pick 2 or 3 that I think will get the job done, and I will bet them if the odds justify that. Of course, if the horse is 3-5, I won't. I view that as a bad percentage bet most nights. Experience has taught me that.

Post 3 also didn't win a race on Monday's card, and I have a couple of races where I see a high probability for those. I will analyze those also. The tricky part becomes when both posts converge on the same race, and then you have to decide which to play, or to play both, or to leave them both. That is the money making part. Hopefully. Last night, I didn't call it right, and it cost me a 9-1 shot that I saw coming. I will discuss that within the blog.

2) Drivers Mike Saftic and Jonathan Drury are both long overdue to get a win. Jody Jamieson has not won on the last two cards he has driven, and he booked off last night for whatever reason. Everything all 3 of them drive will need to be studied. I also keep driver specific, race specific results, so I can narrow down the probability there as well. Because Saftic and Drury are low percentage guys anyway, you have to be very selective with those two. They could both easily draw another ofer. Jody is virtually a lock to win a race if he has enough drives and shows up.

3)The favorite lost the last 6 races in a row last night, so I see that as significant and see race specific opportunities early in the card to take advantage of that.

Now, on to the handicapping and specific race choices and picks.

Race 1)

The favorite has not won Race 1 in the last 5. That is a medium bias to be considered, but not a huge factor.

On the program, the likely favorite is Speckled Door, the 4 horse, and possibly Shadowbriand, the 8 horse, with Jody driving.

P L Hoofhearted, the 6 horse, has Drury and also appears to be one of the top 3 contenders and likely favorites.

As mentioned earlier, both Jody and Drury are due for a win. Unless they dead heat, they both can't win this race. Post 4 is way overdue as mentioned as well, and coupled with the favorite bias, means Speckled Door is the bias choice.

Here are some other factors. Jody has not won Race 1 in at least the last 40 times it has been run. Same for J. Drury. That is some extra bias.

Lets take a look at the actual horses in the race.

4)Speckled Door is definitely the hot horse. Wintered in Florida, where he beat up on much lesser competition before he moved North, he has come back sharp and beaten some pretty good horses...handily. However, he has shown some rough gaited trips within those miles, and while his form on paper can't be denied, he is definitely vulnerable. Last time, he made one uncontested move to the top and got a very soft half for which he just accelerated home away from them. While he certainly has the speed to go more (he won in 1:51.2 3 starts back, he didn't have to go much last time to get it done. I see more pressure on him this time. With his likely 6-5 price, I will go elsewhere. Hopefully post 4 will still be a live play after this race. He is moving up in class, and that can't be ignored.

8)Shadowbriand gets Jody, as mentioned and has very good form for trainer J. Darling, who is winning and hitting the board at a very high rate. He was parked the mile last time, 3 wide in the third quarter and finished solidly against much better than anything in here (Prince Clyde, who is a stakes winner, and Cobble Beach, who beat better last night). He is 5 for 5 on the board this year, won handily 3 starts back on the engine, and looks like the one in this race. I would hope to get 2-1 or higher and at that price, he is the play in here. Others can beat him, but he appears to be the value. I don't see that much hot gate speed inside of him and if he gets to the top early, and follows Speckled Door, who is likely to make a backstretch move, he should have plenty of track and pace left in the lane to win it.

6) P L Hoofhearted went to Georgian last time, gunned out from the rail, backed the half off and then accelerated away from much lesser competition. He held his own at London in the OSS, but so did the other top 2 picks in here. You can't discount that Casie will have him sharp, better and possibly improving. I see about 7-2 on him, and I don't think that is good value based on his current level relative to others in here. I will hope to catch J. Drury later on the card.

Sword of the Spirit has yet to win on this circuit, made a break in his last and now comes off a vet scratch. I don't see him doing anything but sitting a mid pack trip and hoping to pick up 4th or 5th money. No threat in my book.

Steady Warrior blew up the tote board at 89-1 last time for Sylvain with a very impressive backstretch brush and he opened up enough to hold off the closers, who were getting to him. He moves up off that win, but he certainly can't be discounted. How good is he? We will see. It wouldn't shock me if he was in contention. He got second in the Battle of Waterloo final last year, so he certainly is well thought of and has some class on his side as he moves up.

Whosurpal, off since January when he was racing poorly at London looks iffy to begin with, not to mention he likely needs a start. Pass on him. He is worth watching though, to see where he fits in the future. He did win here last year in good time. Tab for later.

Panedictine moves from a protected 15 claimer, where he was so-so to a bunch of tougher stakes colts who are on the improve. Can't see him at all. No shot.

Littlebitaclass has done little in two starts back since he was good in the winter. Jody ditches him for Darling's horse, and I see him as a likely small cheque getter. A lot of things would have to go right for him and wrong for others to have any shot.

Selections

1. Shadowbriand

2. Speckled Door

3. P L Hoofheated

No longshot plays at all.

If Shadowbriand brings 3-1 or higher, he is my best bet of the night.

Race 2)

There is no race specific bias for post position, however the 2nd favorite has lost race 2 the last 12 times. That is significant.

Very contentious race, where any number look capable yet beatable for various reasons.

Good race to try and sort them out.

Who is the likely favorite?

The morning line says Samira Hanover.

7) Samira Hanover is the type that looks sensational for a while, then terrible a week later. As the likely favorite, I would play against her. Off 4 straight wins, including a stakes final where she blew up the tote board, she failed last time as the 4-5 favorite. She had no zip. P Mac abandons her for the rail horse, who while certainly a higher caliber filly, isn't doing great either. Bad sign for me. I will pass on Samira and look elsewhere. If she went off as second favorite, I would pass the race. I think she will race poorly.

6)BWT Taj gets Jody, and certainly he raced excellent last time and has been super good since Carmen took him off Henrickson. With his gate speed and his sharp form, as the second choice, plus Jody being due to win a few, I would be all over him. He got beat last time by a real tough mare who is in the Preferred tonight. Nuff said. Any other night, and he is riding a 4 race winning streak. I would hope to get 5-2 on him, but would accept 2-1. If he is lower,  the value is lost. I would not touch him at lower than 9-5.

4) Rolls Blue Chip, is the unknown here. With post 4, he falls into the overdue factor. He could also easily go off as the second choice, doubling his bias. He adds Jackie Mo, also a plus. On back class, he is the class of this field. Durand is a pretty sharp trotter trainer and his form isn't horrible either. He does need to step up his game here, but he has had 3 starts back now and some poor post have led to poor starts. If he can get away better here and only need one solid move in the lane, he is VERY dangerous. I would want 7-2, but I see the race as a toss up between him and BWT Taj. If the price is right, I would play them both to win.

Riveting Rosie, the 2 year old champ from last year has not come back good. I can't see her being dangerous here. I suspect this is a race to sit with her and try to get her back on track for bigger things. It is mid June now, and currently she hasn't got it together. Time is running out. Soft trip, pick up a share if she can, but no threat for the in. Toss.

Quit Smoking Now raced terrible last time, has not made the top 5 in his last 5 and shows no sign of improvement. He didn't even look good when he won in the winter. Complete toss.

Standing My Ground isn't a toss, but she is in the ballpark of that possibility. Minor share trip, possible tri factor is two of my top 3 run for some reason. Otherwise, she is a bit overmatched now that the better horses are out of the closet.

Little Red Chev has some nice ability, and maybe in a month or two she will step up like Rose Run Orianna did in the winter. Right now, she is only dangerous, not contentious. I will pass, but not toss.

Anaffairtoremember broke last time after a good start the time before on her return to the races. Tough call on her. She was second to Bee A Magician in her final start at 3, and that can't be ignored. However, she might be out for a clean line tonight. Your call. I will pass, but she does worry me.

Selections

1. BWT Taj

2. Rolls Blue Chip

3. Standing My Ground

Anaffairtoremember is a viable longshot in the 15-1 range.

Box the top 2 picks in the exactor and/or wheel them on top with a few others, but not Samira Hanover or Riveting Rosie.

Race 3)

For this race, a cheap trotting claimer that I would normally avoid, post 2 has not won race 3 in the last 35 tries. So, lets have a look at the 2 and the 4 to see if there is anything to play with in addition to the bias.

Billy Davis Jr. has not won race 3 in the last 39, but he is on Gunga Win, who is very unreliable. I suppose for a very big price, say 15-20 to 1,  he is worth a shot, but I won't be taking that shot.

Post 2 offers up He's A Demon,  a back class horse coming off a win in this class and a win two starts prior. I suppose if you got 5-1 he might be some value, but I expect more like 5-2, which means he is a pass for me.

Post 4 is Zorgwick Jock, who, to be fair, has had 4 9 and 10 holes in his last 6 starts and moves in this week. Nevertheless, he is the type that finds a way to lose every week. I will pass on him. Of all the post 4's tonight, I feel pretty safe staying away from him. Hopefully I will already have bagged Rolls Blue Chip at a good price in Race 2. Even if I don't. I will pass this horse.

Otherwise, go ahead, try to sort these out. May I suggest a dart board and a fortune teller?

No selections.

Pass the race.

Next.

Race 4)

Contrary to race 3, this is a great race to try and get a price. Many horses in this race are likely to be overbet.

Lets start with the contenders on paper.

6) Brookdale Shadow returns to this class off an easy,convincing win and some other decent effort. P Mac is back in the bike for high percentage trainer Moore. Seems like a pretty easy play, right? Wrong. She has looked a bit sore or lame in the starts I've seen her, and I suspect she is very vulnerable. I will play against her and the likely short price.

10) Dana Dearest, the likely second choice and possibly the favorite, draws the 10 hole off a very convincing 3 for 3 start to the year, the last two coming in this class. Another solid play, right? Wrong. First off, the 10 hole. Can you say traffic trouble? I knew you could. On top of that, she is a Jeremes Jet. She will hit the speed and toughness wall at some point. Maybe tonight is that night. I will play against her as well. I would put her in the tri or super if I was playing that, but not the top 2.

3) Lady Jake exits stakes horses, and on paper should roll this bunch. On paper. Trainer McNair sent out 4 fillies in the Fan Hanover elims on Saturday, and they were the only 4 to miss the final. Two of them looked like a cinch to make it. One of those beat Lady Jake last time. She has not started the year off well at all. She gets a trainer and driver change this time. Still, can't see it mattering. I will pass on her as well. Not even for a top 4 finish. Complete out for me.

7)Frame Worthy, looked great on paper last time, but horrible on the track. She was running in bad in the stretch and actually interferred with the runner up,...after the wire. Master steer by Fillion to get her home, but these are tougher,  and she is likely lamer. Complete toss for me.

And so we are back to the bias again. Post 4, and also post 4 has not won race 4 in the last 15 tries. Lets take a look at that mare.

4) Unique Rock N Roll is a pretty nicely bred homebred RockNRoll Hanover for Robert Hamather. Team McNair handles her, and although her recent form is spotty, she has been racing okay enough to pick up the pieces on this very iffy bunch. The price will be good, and I would hope for something in the 8-1 to 12-1 range.  I am not a big fan of either McNair, but I can't deny they both win their share. This is her 3rd start back. Chancy play, but the circumstances are right here.

Nine Lives Hanover and Zenobia Blue Chip are complete tosses for me on form and apparent lack of class.

Rocknflo and  Gallarina appear overmatched on form, class and post position. Can't see either getting a cheque unless the top ones are even worse than I think they are.

Noble Jilly has been lame and dangerous to drive for some time.  On her best day, if she was sound, she could win. Don't know when that is, but it doesn't appear to be on the horizon. I don't see J. Drury breaking the donut with this one.

Selections

1. Unique Rock N Roll

2. Brookdale Shadow

3. Dana Dearest

If the price is right, hit Unique Rock N Roll straight for the win. Less than 7-1 is not acceptable. I could even see getting 15-1 on her if something else gets hammered.

Race 5)

Young, conditioned trotters. Always tough to sort out. Lets see what the numbers tell us first.

Post and favorites specific to the race offer us nothing. HOWEVER,  race 5 has not had a longshot in the 8-1 to 20-1 range in the last 28. That is very significant and likely to yield something if we can find one. Let's see what the handicapping tells us.

1) The morning line favorite, Scary Magic, comes off a break which followed a somewhat impressive but not spectacular maiden score picking off some marginal horses for this circuit. He screams out as false favorite. I will pass on him.

5)2nd morning line fave,  Aggressive, comes off a pretty good 2yo year with an 0 for 5 stat line that doesn't impress. He can likely make the ticket, but not a good play for the win. Yes, he did get 3rd in a gold split at London last time, but if you took a look at that field, it was not deep and he was no threat to the winner or 2nd horse. I will pass, even though Saftic is overdue. Hope to catch him  later if I find something that makes sense. He could easily go ofer again. He has been driving poorly for a while now, to be very blunt. His .183 average is not jockey club worthy anymore. He can still win races, but there has to be a lot of value attached. Don't see it on this one, who could easily be in the 2-1 range or less. He scream "Underlay"

2)Herecomesthebride was a decent 2yo but ran before the start last time, was refunded and had to requalify. She has the ability, and shows flashes, but I don't see the price being worthy of a shot with her here. She could beat me, but I will take that chance on a filly that is 4 qualifiers deep into a 1 start season.

9) Serendipitous could be the one for Jody and father Carl. She shows flashes where she looks like a decent stakes mare. They tried her in the Celias Counsel, and when she behaved she was okay enough to beat these. To say that Carl is having a horrific year is a monumental understatement. However, he didn't win the Obrien award by accident, nor the Breeders Crown and NA Cup, among his many big time wins. I expect and would hope for a price in the 10-1 range, and that would be just about right for me. Jody is due, the filly is okay, and others look like they could easily fail. Count me in.

6) I am Special has shown flashes were I have taken notice. I have also noticed she is very hot, has nickle bred manners and could easily be offstride long before the car pulls away. If you don't like Jody's horse, you could take a shot at this one. CC is good with young trotters. You likely get 15-1 or higher on this one. Chancy is understating it, but there is a chance. She did take her time down to 1:57 last time, albiet doing nothing to suggest she was going to win that race against a horse who would whip this bunch. You figure all that out.

3) Spec T is a Michigan invader who race several times at Grand River last year and resurfaces after a 7 month layoff with a new trainer/owner and an okay qualifier. These are the types that step up and win these types of races. They are also the type that get on the list over and over again. The driver would concern me here. Not likely any holes opening up for him. Another tough call, but not a toss out either.

4) Valencia Sol, is a post 4 that I will pass on. She is hard to like off those lines, with that form and lack of speed with Dustin, who can't even win a race at London these days. I will get beat and accept that if she blows up the tote board at 40-1 plus.

Nickange Two, Muscle Girl and Needle Pointe all give you multiple reason to discount them and not worry that they will upset the apple cart.

Selections

1. Serendipitous

2. Spec T

3. I am Special

Not sure if I will play any of this bunch. Want to see the post parade and how they look. If I were inclined I would probably play them all on the front end of a pick 3 with the likely favorites coming on the back end in race 6 and 7.

Race 6)

The favorite has not only not won race 6 in the last 6 tries, it has missed the board entirely. Big bias for it to make the top 2, and likely win. Lets take a look at the contenders.

7)Company Man, the likely post time fave and morning line fave got too far behind early last time and couldn't reel in the 89-1 winner. He still did race good though, his second very good effort in a row. Back half in 55 flat last time himself. He does that again, from a bit closer and he jogs. Short price likely, but he can be a possible single in your pick 4, or in my case, pick 3 on the back of the 3 longshots I chose in race 5. Have to get 6-5, anything less is an underlay.

3) Twin B Spy disappointed last time at Georgian by flopping at 1-2. He started off the season well in his first try and was good enough last year to make the OSS Super Final. If anyone can turn him around, its Casie. And if Drury is going to get off the schneid tonight, this could be the one. I would hope for 4-1 on him, and he is playable at that price. If Company Man doesn't have it, he picks up the pieces.

4) Major Deagan has a shot. Got the 4 hole and that is a good bias. He has looked good for weeks and won easily to break his maiden last time to a horse that came right back in that class and jogged. He moves up, but I think he has what it takes to step right up. I see 4-1 on him, and I'd consider him as well. I like the other two ahead of him better, but I wouldn't be shocked if he got his picture taken tonight.

6) Big Surf, shows flashes of ending up being a pretty useful and decent WEG horse. He also shows flashes of being a moneysucker who burns you many times over. He got a horrible trip last time, and Sylvain has been replaced. That tells you what the trainer thought the problem was last time. He is capable of reversing that result with Jackie Mo in the bike, but I will avoid him. His price wont likely be justifiable. Last quarter in 32 last time suggests he may have some residual effect this week, and/or he goes directly to the rail and stays put, only coming out late to pick up a minor cheque. Either way, not what I am looking for here.

5) American Bull was one I took note of when he was 2nd after a boxed in trip in a 15 restricted claimer. He then didn't race well in Tioga, but he seems to be hot and cold. Jody is on him, and Menary is the trainer. They seem to do well together. At 8-1, he offers a price. I think he gets beat, but he is capable enough if certain things go his way.

2) Party Dont Stop took a while to break his maiden when most thought he would get it done right away. Now at NW2, he appears to be one of those who isn't going to live up to his potential as a young horse. Pass on him until I see whatever everyone else who hammered him before sees. So far, I see a horse who finds ways to lose.

Swiss Bank Hanover, Naked City and Major Homer all don't appear to have a shot from the outside with this tough bunch. Toss all of them.

Selections

1. Company Man

2. Twin B Spy

3. Major Deagan

Longshot chance to American Bull.

Race 7)

Very tough race to call. A lot of horses with spotty form, could be good, could be no good.

Lets lean on the numbers.

Two things jump out at me. The inside 4 post positions haven't won race 7 in the last 11 starts. Secondly, the second fave has not won in the last 11 nor the top 2 faves in the last 3 times.

So, it should be a top 2 fave from the inside. Now to handicap and see how that matches up.

Right off the bat, the inside 4 all look like big longshots, with only the rail horse, Flanagan Memory with enough form and class to be dangerous. His first was a disaster, his next okay but not spectacular. I think you could see 8-1 or higher on him, and he is worth a shot at that price, but certainly can't see him being a top 2 fave.

6) Intimidate, the likely favorite returns for his 4th start of the year. First start was on okay 2nd in this class, followed by a foolish trip to the Meadowlands where he was way overmatched by horses that he can't currently go with. Back home now, he can take these if his form is still good. Is it?

8) Slip Into Glide has beaten these twice pretty easily and taken 4 of 5 with them, only being 2nd the other time. Can't fault his form or sharpness. Can he keep going like that? Maybe.

7) Fearless Man is the new kid on the scene, with noted trotting man Zeron taking over. He has taken two in a row at Philly with similar caliber. If the other two fail, he is likely the one and may even be the 2nd fave.

9) Mego Moss did not look good at all last time and maybe he is spent. I will pass unless he shows me he can turn that around. He has been very hard raced since Carmen took over and it appears to be taking its toll.

5) Rose Run Oriana steps up to this level for the first time and while she has been very good, she has not shown she can tackle these types of bearcats and live to tell. She can get 4th or 5th if she is raced to do just that. Keep an eye on her when she is allowed to go back down.

The rest don't figure. Only Flanagan Memory has the ability to take them down.

Tough call. If I play the pick3 as stated earlier, I would use my top 3 picks and Flanagan Memory. The single is likely Company Man in race 6.

Race 8)

Cheap 8 claimers. Fun wow.

No bias here. Even better.

I can't find one I like for any reason. I will take a complete pass.

If you need to play the late pick 4, take a lot of them.

The only advice I will give you is that I know of Charmbo Willie well, and I said this last time. Dean Nixon is a fantastic trainer who is very sharp in every department, including classification. But in this case, I still don't see Charmbo Willie not hitting the wall at the tote board because of the very long stretch, something he had issues with even in London. If he is the favorite, play elsewhere. Who else? I don't know. But not him.

Race 9)

Mid condition trotters. Tough bunch to play with. But playable.

Strong bias to the pp2 and pp4. Lets take a look at those two and others.

2) Gotta Secret. Fillion/Moreau combo, who got it done with a similar poor performer in Smarty Pants last night. This horse has trouble at this level, but on a good night, can get it done. Price will be right, but I will pass on him.

4) Windsong Geant is a horse I never ever play, because he is very lame and bad gaited. CC books off him to take the rail horse. Nuff said. He moves up as well. Another pass.

The balance of the field I could go either way on any of them. So, I will watch and look for an angle next week. Right now, don't see this race as viable for me. Too many with hard to figure form.

If J. Drury is still due, I might be tempted to play Burnin Money if he post parades well and I could get 5-1 or higher. I doubt that happens though.

Race 10)

Fillies and Mares.Nw2. Always a tough bunch to play, but always provides a value play. Lets see if we can find it.

Post 4 looks like a good play still, especially if none or only one has come through. Also, strong bias for a 10-1 to 20-1 shot by the numbers.

6) Polk Dot Hanover was one I played last time with Jody, and she couldn't get it done, although she raced ok. She is still possible, but I can see her going home without a photo.

3) Porsche Seelster is another who looks capable enough, but beatable enough. Her first of the year, he last start, was okay, but not great. She races tougher generally, but only follows them, not engage them. Hard to see where she is at. The price is still likely too low for me, so I will go elsewhere.

4) Wildcat Magic is the one I go to in here. Post 4 and some form to back it up. CC dumps her to dance with Born To Dream,  for O'sullivan, but that is to be expected considering his power and the overall scheme of things. Fillion takes over, and that is a wash in my book. She has been keeping a lot better company than any of these can claim and holding her own. If she holds that form,  she beats these. I would hope for 9-2, and I would play her at that price.

2) Magna Blue Chip is the only longshot in my range here that gives me any sign she can get it done, and as Boyd's stable is not going great right now, I will wait on her and stick with my top choice as a single,  assuming the price meets my demands.

Selections

1. Wildcat Magic

2.Polk Dot Hanover

3. Magna Blue Chip

Longshot chance on Porsche Seelster. But the price doesn't likely justify that.

New Moniker, Shirrens Dream and Social Inclusion

Is Social Inclusion just a crazy speedball who won a couple of very fast races? And nothing more.
Probably.

Sure, his beyer number was off the charts. Yes, handicappers love the Beyer number. And it does mean something. And have value. But horsepeople, the kind that get up at 4am each day and spend countless hours with horses, doing what they do, know it doesn't mean that much. Real class horses, with solid speed and class, do it over and over, and they last. One fast race doesn't make any horse.

April 5th, 2014: Woodbine Selections and Comments

 Best Bet: Anderlecht, Race 8

Longshot chances:


Lets Leavum
A Nashty Business
Nothingbutmach

Race 1

1. Saulsbrook Fork
2. Ozzy Ozzy
3. Oaklea Victor



Oaklea Victor ran last time when sitting a perfect 2 hole trip. Can he make amends? Sure he can. He is capable enough with these types. But, he usually brings a low price and has failed quite a bit. I would play against him at this point. Others have better form and look more plausible. A horse that has won 7 of 16 in the last two years cannot be tossed out, but a horse that burns chalk money consistently can't be played with confidence either.
A Nashty Business managed to get parked past the half from the 3 hole last time and backed up once he was let on the front end. As mentioned before, with another driver this horse looks like he would be dangerous. That being said, even a lousy driver can fall into a 2 hole trip now and then. So, beware of him tonight.
Flight of The Kiwi broke again last time, his 3rd break from 5 lines on the page. He has tailed off badly from very good form a couple of months ago. When he was good, he took West Side Story all the way to the wire. His issue seems to be something more than immaturity. Probably a minor lameness issue. Until he shows he can maintain over a whole mile, he is a pass.
Alexander Lukas has not adapted well to this level after finally taking down nw2 twice. Looks like he doesn't have the overall speed for these. Now that spring has arrived,and they go faster each week, he appears to be a winter horse who has run out of time.
Ozzy Ozzy is of course the obvious choice. Right off the shelf he scored at 6-1 last time. As mentioned last week, Hayter is good at having them ready to go off a long layoff. He also has a history of having them fail 2nd start back. He likely gets it done, but at a likely 6-5, I would look elsewhere. He still has his moments where he is one stride away from going off stride. 
Devries Hanover is hard to like at any price. He finds multiple ways to get beat. Among them, acting up behind the gate, running for no reason in the mile, or just having to be held and not fully driven to keep him going. Saftic hops on this time as Fillion goes back to the Moreau horse, and as mentioned last week, he is not the easiest horse to just jump on and drive. He has upset potential, and one of these days he may put it all together. That could be 6 months from now.
 Saulsbrook Fork jogged last time at Flamboro after two solid 3rds there, and now he comes back to WEG for the very hot trainer Brealey. For the right price, he looks like the one. I would want about 7-2 or higher to play him, but on form and speed he appears to be as good or better than the two likely faves. Top call.

See R Chin Win has shown nothing to suggest she can compete with most of these. At best, she is racing for 4th or 5th money.

Race 2

1. Jenna Casimir
2. True Reflection
3. Eat Me Up

You don't see many races on WEG where every horse has a very legitimate shot to win, but this is one of those. So, there is a decent price to be had if you can figure it out. Trip is probably key, and therefore, tactical speed and driver matter a lot.

Eat Me Up couldn't get it done last time in this class with a front end mission. Parked early, it cost her at the end. She doesn't win often, but gets second and third a lot. She is one that usually needs to sit in and find room and a lane at the end. She is possible, if a lot of things go her way. I will look elsewhere.

D Gs Pesquero left hard last time and then had to wait for room up the rail when she had a full head of steam, only to be beaten by a horse on the outside with more momentum. She certainly fits with these and has a shot, but she isn't always consistent about pacing all the way to the wire. 

Its No Secret scored last time at this level for Jody, the 3rd time she has done that. Tonight she gets Randy, or someone else if he books off. I will pass, although she is capable enough. She is the likely fave, and I don't see that as a decent price relative to the possibility she doesn't fire without Jody.

Oceanview Bindi  moves up after failing on the front end last time. She was parked a long way to get that lead, so that has to be considered. As does her back class, when she has beaten much better than these in the past. However, right now, she is a longshot who wont get respect and will get hung or pressured if she goes for the lead with these. Pass.

Jenna Casimir  just missed last time a step lower when she moved way too late, something she does quite a bit. However, Puddy seems to have her very good again, and in the past she has left better when that was the case. She is my lukewarm top call.

True Reflection, left hard for the lead last time and then yielded to Eat Me Up down the backside, only to gamble for racing room in the lane which never came. She can certainly bounce back for a price this week. J. Mac takes over as Drury goes back to his dads horse.

Putmeintogo, who at times looks like a serious horse, other times fails miserably. The talent is there, but she is hard to like when she gets a short price, which is likely here. She did win parked the entire mile last time, and while that is admirable, she is also the type that bounces off that sort of effort.

Race 3

1. Up Front N Crazy
2. Order By Commander
3. Lets Leavum

A very interesting race. Fork. Yes? No? I am in the No camp. He gets a better post to work with this time, and likely takes no prisoners if he doesn't jump it off early, but I am not sold on him holding his form. I will play elsewhere, and take the price that will come with it.

Tag Up And Go comes in off two qualifiers. Don't see him as ready to tackle these. Maybe next time. One to watch as he was a pretty decent 3yo.
Fork got another tough trip last time and paid the price at the end. He has a long history of not holding his form and I see that again. Can he wire these on his best effort? Certainly. But at a likely 6-5, I will bet that he doesn't and play others who are just as talented but sharper and more consistent.
Lets Leavum raced okay last time to get 3rd, placed 2nd, but really wasn't doing enough off a perfect 2nd over trip where others battled hard in front of him and his cover won the race going away. He is always dangerous, but not always good. Longshot chance.
Up Front N Crazy got the worst of it last time. He left hard and sat on Fork's back, which appeared to be a genius move until that one let a dead horse on the outside go and retook, and that left him sitting behind a horse going the wrong way with the flow moving on the outside. I see his luck going the other way this time. Top call. 
Moontan has had a lot of chances to get it done and has not, and lately has even flattened out a bit. I will pass on him.
Order By Commander reversed his form last time on the big drop and almost got it done wire to wire. Even though he moves back up, when sharp he handled these types pretty easily. Fillion is back aboard for Puddy, and he is certainly a top contender.
  The Only One and Joseph Gerard both look to be horses that were sharp but have faded enough to be only bit players.

Race 4

1. Grin For Money
2. Drain Daddy
3. Monte Christo

Drain Daddy a top contender tonight, was on a front end mission last time and almost got it done with a lot better than most of these. He could easily have been my top pick and certainly one to use in the pick 4.

Twin B Impressive lots of chances with easier and he has failed. He meets some pretty classy and sharp enough droppers this time. I will pass on him until he goes back down and consider him then.

Calgary Seelster isn't getting it done at London and hasn't been competitive on this circuit even two steps lower. Pass on him.

Monte Christo raced pretty good in this class last time to get 2nd,  however,Drury ditches his dads horse for Calgary Seelster, which is a curious move. He is still in the mix in my opinion, but he doesn't win much.

Grin For Money my top call, drops and gets a better post. Last week was a complete no try from the 10 hole with a pretty tough bunch relative to this group. Expect him to be out and rolling a lot earlier this time. Jackie Mo knows when the money is there to be had, and when it isn't. His back halves are more than enough to handle this bunch.

Smokin Bear shows nothing for weeks that suggests he is at all competitive on this circuit, this class or even lower. Complete pass.

Classic Gent  is the wild card in this bunch. Is he still sharp enough to tackle the best ones in here. Maybe, but his last few suggest he is more of a bit player and he will be raced that way. I will wait on him to see if he shows he has more zip than he has showed for about a month. On his top effort, he could handle these.

Up The Credit, showed a small dose of his old back class last time, but still hasn't done enough and still carries a B track driver holding the lines. I will pass on him and wait for Jody to return, and hopefully get a price that night.
Broadies Song a Dover shipper with spotty form and off for 6 weeks will have to be seen to see where he fits on this circuit. Right now, it doesn't appear it is this class on this night.
Race 5

1. Speed Again
2. Stompin Tom Creek
3. Donau

Another mixed bag of class droppers, class risers, shippers and assorted horses with various levels of good and bad form. Easiest to just eliminate those who appear out of it and work by process of elimination.

  Cams Tux, Midnite Romp and Czar Seelster have not shown they can compete for the top 3 spots with some of the better ones in here. Pass on all of them.

Donau is now 3 races off the claim, all at this level, and he has failed all 3 times, last time on the lead until mid stretch when he gave it up and missed the board. Pass on him until he drops into an 8 claimer,and even then Auciello has not shown me any improvement to suggest he justified a 25k claim or this classification. Anthony is off after a crazy front end bottom the field out mission, Drury is back on, but, he is the type that finds ways to lose with any driver.

Speed Again returns after a short layoff, and after they tried to race him off the pace, which didn't work. I expect to see the old Speed Again at this lowered level, right to the top and see if he can take them all they way. I suspect he can. He is good fresh and when he gets his own way. I doubt Donau would take him on. Big class difference there.

Astute won the Preferred 3 at Flamboro last time after several tries to get it done. That is basically an 8 to 10 claimer with the odd better one in there. These are much tougher. He would have to significantly step up his game to have any shot. I will watch and see if he can. My guess is we see him in a 10 claimer next time.

Stompin Tom Creek is one not to discount right away with these. He had the dreaded 8 hole last time at Flamboro, and got parked a long way first over at London the time before that, with some okay types that would do in here. The start before that, he was wide a long way and just missed. Longshot chance for the win, and certainly in the tri mix.

Cool Rock drops below the level of his last win. He has been racing okay, but even his huge closing style has not got him anywhere lately. He always has a shot, but he isn't as sharp as he was and others look better in here. I will pass on him this time.

Wazzup Wazzup takes the monster class dive this time. However, he has tailed off badly lately, and maybe racing horses that were too tough for him has chewed him up now. He can't be discounted, but others in here will get the lead and without the lead, he isn't very dangerous in any class. I will take a pass on him tonight.

Race 6

1. Take A Pass
2. Sucker Money
3. If you must, play a longshot and hope the dart hits the bullseye

 A terrible bunch in which just about every one of them can be discounted. I wont even bother. I will go get a hot dog and fries while others attempt to sort out this less than inspiring bunch.


Race 7

1. Jac Spade
2. Dapper Denzil
3. Rave On
First Impression seems like he would be a lot better off in a 10 claimer, and that at best he is racing for smaller shares with many of these. I will pass.

Kennairn Buckwheat very much like the 1 horse, appears over his head. He has beaten some very soft 8 claimers, but these are much tougher. Can't play him at this level, even at huge odds.
Rave On is another stepping way up in class, but he has the back class to do it and his form suggests he is in the mix. He raced like a bearcat the last two times. He is def in the mix for the top 3, if not the win outright. Puddy rarely moves them up unless he is sure they will do.

Genesee raced okay last time for a horse that was off a month and yanked out of the post parade dead lame in the meantime. I thought he still looked off, and I will avoid him. If right, he is in the mix. I don't think he is.
Jac Spade was a big disappointment last time. Never in it, way too far back and even a 27.1 last quarter didn't get him in range. I expect him to rebound this time, but I would want to see at least 4-1 to make him playable.
Real Rocker, certainly raced tough last time, only getting beat by a trip horse. He was claimed out of that one, and I am still not sold that he can compete most nights with these as long as he is still locked on a line, which he still is. Pass.

Dapper Denzil has been sharp for many weeks, getting it done a few times and bombing out the others. He is in the mix, but not always one who shows up.
Blended Whiskey draws the 10 hole on the slight drop but he has trouble winning and that wont help him. Minor cheque,  maybe 3rd money, but not much chance of more. Inside, he would be a lot more dangerous.

Four Starrz Hold Em and Mr Big Head are two more who would be a lot better off in a lower claimer. Pass on both of them.

Race 8

1. Anderlecht
2. ThePaninsulahotel
3. Champagne Phil


Nothingbutmach returns to this circuit a much improved horse, but maybe a notch above where he needs to be, and faces some who have been racing okay a level higher than this. He would need them to fail to get in the win picture. Not tonight.

Stonebridge On Ice really stepped up last time. But these are even tougher. You can never discount an old class horse like him who can still do it on occasion, but I will go elsewhere this time. Others are simply still better than him at this point.

Nickle Bag a horse who will obviously take some money based on his recent lines, seems to me a horse who is gradually losing his sharpness. I will go elsewhere. Some of these are tough enough to outsprint him down the lane, and even his huge close has been a bit less impressive the last two times.

Anderlecht has been showing signs that he is near his old self and can handle a mediocre bunch like these. He almost got it done 2 starts back with much better, and now drop in with horses who look beatable. Top call.

The Paninsulahotel drops down a level, which for some isn't that big a deal, but for him, it is. He needs a certain type of trip with a certain type of horse to have a shot at the end. These are those types. Top 2 call, but maybe Anderlecht gets enough of a jump on him to hold him off.

Southwind Amazon has been off 5 months, while World Away takes a huge class hike. Pass on both of them with these.

Champagne Phil is the one who is on the fence with this bunch. His last was poor, and he does run very hot and cold. I wouldn't discount him for the win, but maybe he is tailing off a shade, just enough to get beat by the top 2.

Race 9

Mopey Corey or not Mopey Corey. That is really what this race boils down to. And if not Mopey Corey, then which one of these hard to like, easy to find holes bunch do you pick? I am voting not Mopey Corey tonight, based on the likely even money price, so I take a complete pass on this one. I will get a drink to wash down my hot dog and fries from my Race 6 intermission. 

Race 10

1. Cougar Hall
2. In Commando
3. Top Gear

You don't often see a Preferred where all of the horses have not excelled at the Preferred before, but this is that race. So, I will basically look at it as one step below the Preferred, which is what it is.

Dali is of course the exception to my above comments. He has certainly beaten Preferred and better in his past. But, that was the old Dali. The new Dali is the 9 year old who was off 3 years breeding mares and was so-so in his first start back at basically the same level he races tonight. Luc didn't really let him go all out last time. Will he this time? I say No. He needs one more. Minor chance, but I pass.
Top Gear won this class in his second last, and raced tough in the Preferred with no shot at the winner and finished solid. He is in the mix, but also needs to have his own way, which he might not get with some of these.
Machal Jordan has shot up the class ladder, winning a few and just getting beat in his last. But more importantly, altering his style last time and making the lead mid race with a huge brush which he carried almost all the way. He certainly is the best he has ever been, and merits a serious shot. Mayotte? Well, he is a low percentage driver. You decide. I will pass, but of course, I know he can reach up and bite me.

In Commando did what he needed to do last time with these to get up in time. That might not work this time. A few better ones to slay in the lane. And he likely comes with a short price. Pass on the win, but certainly a tri factor. 

Daddy Warbucks stays close enough to always be dangerous, and gets up the odd time, but usually it isn't enough for the win. He is certainly capable of getting 3rd, and better if everything goes his way, but others look better here.

J J Shark is super sharp, and moves up many classes to take these on. I wouldn't discount him, but his big finishing move might not be as potent with these. Longshot chance, but that is about all you can say.

Cougar Hall How can you not like him. He is 12 for 27 lifetime and just beat most of these while coming back off a month away. If he races to his form, he wins this race.
Lucky Terror is one month out of the box with a vet scratch in the middle of that from the outside. Following trip to pick up a minor share, and then we will see about him next week.

 Race 11

1. Winning Dream
2. Ideal Race
3. Evenin of Pleasure

Wide open race with most having a shot if things go their way. In these types of races, I usually go with the better drivers and the class horses who show just enough form to suggest they could get it done if they stick to that.

Ideal Race reversed his form last time with these and almost got it done. He is certainly capable of finishing the job this time, and will be raced accordingly.

Winning Dream dropped last time into this class, left hard but then got a terrible shuffle and had no hope. He can certainly come right back. For the price, he is my top call.

Evenin of Pleasure also got the shuffle last time and by the time he was out, it was way too late to matter. Post 9 hurts him this time, but he is also in the mix. The top 2 have a better post, so I went with them.