How was your night? Mine really kinda sucked.

My night last night can best be described as disappointing. Not the first one I've ever had betting on horses, and it wont be the last. But like every one of those that came before, I still can take some positives and lessons going forward, to make the good nights even better in the future and hopefully take some of the potential bad nights and turn them into better nights.

Betting on horses. The pillars

I view betting on horses as having 3 components, all equally important parts.

1) handicapping and work. However you do that, it has to be done, and you have to be good at it. If not, the other two parts don't matter. You would just be floating in the raft outside the Titanic, but you still would have been on a sinking ship. You have to be on the right ship and sailing straight and smoothly, relatively speaking.

For me, that means I gather my data, enter it, study it, look at trends, patterns, specifics on certain variables. A lot of us do that, and I'm no different. Whether my way is better than your way, we could debate. My way is different that yours, and that is not up for debate. We all do it differently, in some small ways. As long as we get it right, and getting it right means winning money consistently while taking the losses of others who don't, that is all that really matters.
After I do that first part of the handicapping, the work is not done. I watch replays, very carefully. I am looking for any little thing I can see, something that I believe matters, and that is most likely to be missed or ignored by the vast majority who would bother to do it. I had about 3 horses I uncovered for last night, and while all were valid, a couple of things I saw were noted by the track video hosts. So, the value was gone. One was ignored and missed, and that should have gotten me a free pass no matter how the night went otherwise. I also had a past data point that was ignored off the program, and that was another where I should get the windfall. Generally, I liked the entire setup of the card and thought there would be multiple chances to make a profit. There were also some races I didn't like and had planned to sit out, unless something unusual happened or presented itself. It actually did, and I ignored that too. But more about that later.

On these two points, the data and replays, I didn't short myself at all. Fridays at Woodbine are a night where you can't. The margin between a value winner and a value loser is very slim and tight. I am aware of that. Thursday night is a night obvious chalks come in, so while I watch and do the things listed above, I know I can skimp a bit, because its unlikely I will play much in either case.

2) handicapping the entire race now that you have all the parts of the first component complete. This can be termed...finding relative value and putting the pieces together. In many cases, this involves putting a bad value horse that is being over bet against my good value horse that is being under bet, and hopefully grossly under bet. Again, more work. Its just work layered upon your skills and talent. I mostly did that, but I shorted myself on one race, and that bit me in a way that it should. I didn't act in a thorough enough way, and I got spanked for that at the end of the day. That is a lesson that never gets old. For every amount of work you skip, or don't do, or take for granted, you will lose a proportional amount of money because of that. I know it will happen to me periodically, as I am human just like everyone else, but I know I have to keep it to a minimum and try to avoid it playing out like that. When it does, I take it as punishment so that at least in the short term I will tow that line.

3) discipline and focus. The evil twins of betting failure for most of us. Dave Shwartz talks about a session, and part of that is that when you are going to play a session, you play it. You don't surf, you don't go make dinner, you don't make phone calls. You focus on the task, and you play at the highest level you can. I totally failed on this part and that, in the end, is what caused me to lose, when I should have won a lot.

Here are the specifics of how it all happened.

I had pegged a few value horses I was looking at. They were:

Dry Creek Image

In Spades
Bad At Redhot
Hurrikane Kingkong
Er Monica
Topville Chrome 
Walk Two Moons

I will take them one by one and go over how I approached the entire card, within the framework of the 3 components I described above.

Race 1 had Dry Creek Image. I thought she had a compromised trip the race before and also raced and finished well anyway. I knew Chickie Love, the big favorite, would be overplayed and I thought she was a very suspect favorite. Again, bad value horse meets good value horse. The other player, Reys N A Rocket, was bearing out badly the week before, but she was viable. I thought I could get 6-1 or higher on Dry Creek Image and that was good relative value. I thought the play was all the way across, win place and show, because I could see Chickie Love completely missing the ticket. Because paying attention is very important, in real time, a 3rd horse called Maralika was way overbet on a trainer change via a claim, so I actually had 16-1 on Dry Creek Image. I put my bet in. But, as they were going to the gate, Dry Creek Image started to cause trouble, and they paused. I didn't like what I saw, at all, so I cancelled my bet. Chickie Love was a very suspect favorite, and was actually trapped in late in the race, but got lucky to get out at the right time and came on to win, while Reys N A Rocket got the lead and bore out sharply again, as expected and got beat. Dry Creek Image got 3rd, but was no threat to the top 2, and it was a good leave overall. I played it right and paid enough attention to stick to the discipline. No loss. On to race 2.

Didn't like anything in race 2, so I passed on the race. The favorite, who I disliked and was terrible value, won anyway, so another good pass.

Race 3 brought IN SPADES, who was on my radar. My data rated his performance very highly the start before in defeat as a big favorite, and I could see the players ditching him for that reason. I expected 4-1, and it came, so I played him. He was one of many, and I didn't like the favorite Burn Out Hanover, so I went against him. In Spades raced well, but he was too far back early and closed huge, but into a fast last half, and he couldn't get there. I'm okay with that. That will happen, and you will lose some of those. It was a good play I would make again. Nevertheless, we were 3 races in and I hadn't made anything and actually lost a small amount on Race 3.

Race 4 brought Bad At Redhot. I should preface my following statement with this comment.
I trained horses. I have had dogs all my life. I would take home sick barn cats and try to help them, even make friends with some of those in the barn that were scared of people. I am an animal lover. I hope all racehorses, good or bad, are treated well, get to live long lives after their careers are over on farms roaming pastures and eating grass to their hearts content.

But, being a realistic person and bettor, I can tell you that a rat is a rat. What is a rat?

For racing people, these are horses of limited ability that wont try very hard, and aren't consistent. For a sharp bettor, these can also be value longshots, in the right field. Bad At Redhot fit that profile.

What did I know about her, and the race last night in particular? She is a rat, facing many other rats. Good form, bad form, its not much to go on with these. Some weeks they show up, some weeks they don't. In a lot of cases, external variables come into to play. The favorite, E R Rhonda had post 10, which is such a low percentage post hindrance, that almost no horses win from it at Woodbine. E R Rhonda almost did her last start. She had it then too, actually led the entire way and crossed the line first, but was dq'd for running out sharply into the 2nd place horse. Based on that, many thought post 10 wouldn't be a problem this time. I didn't see it that way. I also didn't like any of the other horses in the race, based on what I knew about them generally. So,  I didn't really look. Big mistake. That cost me.

What did I like about Bad At Redhot? She is a very low percentage winner, but, she tries and with the right easy trip, which she could get here, she could be dangerous. Her driver, Jody Jamieson also has a history with her of getting her to perform at long odds. That wasn't on the program, but its in my memory bank. I figured her for about 25-1. As it turns out, she went off 70-1. I made a small win bet and went up to make some dinner. I lost my focus, violated the sanctity of the session concept, and the race was off before I came back downstairs. She finished 2nd, got the trip I suspected, E R Rhonda blew up, the rest were rats that raced like rats, except for one rat, Jordies Hope, who beat me.

How did I miss her? I hadn't looked and she has a significant trainer change from the last time I'd seen her. If I had noticed that, by deploying the 2nd component from above, I would have considered that and played her as well.

I also always back up a horse like Bad At Redhot to place, but I didn't here. I didn't do the work, and I lost my focus, with poor discipline, and I lost a $43 place payout on Bad At Redhot.

Four races in, my handicapping had been good, but I had serious violations of other components and I was down where I should have been way up.

​I didn't like anything either way in race 5, and it came pretty much how I expected with low value horses getting it done. I was​n't the only one, as my friend Garnet Barnsdale had the same assessment and passed as well. When you got nothing, that is when you pass.

Here were my picks, as posted in my group about 1 hour prior to first post for the first 5 races. 

 Race 6 brought Hurrikane Kingkong, who I thought would be my best bet of the night. I thought he had a very troubled trip and lacked a chance to go forward when it mattered the previous start, and while I had noted that, the track handicapper also noticed it and told the masses. I wasn't sure what kind of value I would get. But, I disliked the two probable favorites, being Artoffical Flavor, who was very lame the previous start, and Lyons William, who was a horribly overbet rat the time before who was placed last for going off the course while he was backpeddling sharply. I still thought relative value was on the table. Hurrikane Kingkong was in the 6-1 range, and while a shade low, I thought that was fair. But, Artofficial Flavor came out post parading looking like a totally different horse. He was sound and ready to race this night. I had mentioned to Garnet and my friend Ryan that if he came out a different horse, all bets were off. He was, but I left my bet up on Hurrikane Kingkong. You can guess how it played out. I made a mistake and lost the bet. Probably, because I was 6 races in, had handicapped well but made mistakes and just wanted to make my play. So I did. I violated the session concept. A session is a session. You play it properly, no matter how you are doing up to that point. Hurrikane Kingkong finished last, with no excuse. He maybe should not have won, but he should have been at least 3rd. He is a rat. I got this one wrong, for multiple reasons as I described.

​Race 7 was probably my biggest procedural mistake of the night. Obviously, for various reasons, things were not going well on this card for me. So, you start to get sour, doubt yourself, and then you don't stick with the plan. That old psychology bugaboo many of us handicappers can fall into. I have worked hard to overcome that, but I'm not immune to a relapse.
​Er Monica was up in race 7. I hadn't seen her, didn't have any data on her, but I know her driver is a high percentage driver who gets performance and wins lots of races with longer odds horses. She looked good enough to me, and I was only so so on many of the other contenders, who I thought were likely to be soft at the tote board. So, I was going to play her. Then, since I didn't love her that much, and didn't have anything concrete like data or replay issues to go on, I just decided to pass. Again, you can guess what happened. Her driver got her the trip she needed, found room late, and was up in time for a 10-1 score, which I had missed. Things were just not going well tonight.

​Race 8 was up next, and I just decided to play what I had intended to play. I liked Topville Chrome a bit off his replay, and he seemed a contender among many, although the data told me he was only okay his last start. In relative terms though, I really disliked the favorites in this race, not just one but two of them, so I played him win place and show, and also the same for Star Clipper, who seemed to be hinting at a good effort, but was risky. The odds were good on both, and I thought it was a good value play, which is really the point of all I do anyway. Star Clipper was 10-1, Topville Chrome was 6-1. Together, they were good value to play together. I only needed one to perform if the favorites were false as I thought they were. It was a strangely driven and hotly contested race, but while Topville Chrome got a bad shuffle, Star Clipper was in position to win but lost to one of those favorites, Gillys Boy. I still got a decent place price on Star Clipper, but he didn't win. I played the race well. But here is the takeaway at this point and this is key. 

You have to play all the races where you think you have done all the homework and you have value to play into. You can't pick where you play, where you don't, and consider how the night is going. You are going to lose some of the In Spades races due to race factors, Hurricane Kingkong races when you simply get it wrong, and the Star Clipper races when it doesn't pan out exactly how you need it to. As long as you play them all, and your skill is valid, you will win enough. Like the E R Monica and Bad At Redhot races. You can't skip races that you should play.

​Race 9 I liked the favorites and didn't really like my top pick much, so I skipped the race. Favorite won, 2nd fave was 2nd, my top pick was weak late as I thought he might be. It was simply a good race to leave. ​No need to panic and play a race that wasn't playable in my view.

Race 10 I liked a few, not that much but so so. I played 3 horses to place that I thought had value. I got 2 of them, and made a small overall profit. It was an okay play. You need to make the small profit at times if its a good play. They cant all be bombs like Bad At Redhot.

Race 11 was the icing on the bad cake for me this night. I made only one mistake, but it was a very costly one. I did so many things right for this one to work, but I only had to do one thing wrong for it to not work out.

Walk Two Moons was the one I saw in the replay that I felt everyone had missed. I thought she got a terrible drive the start before, but still finished well enough, well off the screen. My data confirmed that, she was dropping in class, with a good post and likely to get the perfect trip. The favorite, Bernadette, is an old class mare, but she has terrible form, coming off a layoff, with a bad post and a history of giving up the lead late. It played out exactly as I thought it would, and while I was looking for 7-2, the favorite was wildly overbet at 3-5, and Walk Two Moons went off at 14-1.

I didn't bet. Why didn't I bet? Just as they were going to the gate, I got distracted by something, which doesn't matter, and I wont describe here. But, when I gathered myself, it was too late, the race was off, and the whole way, I knew she would beat the favorite, which she did.

In sum, I have a good system, the components are the right components, but without the execution you need, and I need, it wont matter. Component 3 is critical.

Never forget that. I wont. Discipline and focus are crucial to success playing horses. 

On the way home from the grocery store while I was writing this blog in my head, I heard this song in the car. As bettors, and just humans who have ups and downs, its good to remember the sentiment of this song

Remember, betting on horses is supposed to be fun. Its a lot more fun when you win and have a good time. That happens when you get it right. Tomorrow is another day, to enjoy and achieve, with lessons in tow.

Good luck if this helps you. Have a good time. The sun can't shine every day. But it will shine again, if you are bright enough.

January 4, 2018. Day 1. Turned out to be an aborted test run.

The way I work is that I like to scope out any potential playable race the night before. When I say playable, i mean from a bridgejumper perspective. That means there will be significant spread in either the place or show pool, and I have some quick opinion of the favorite--or jumper horse. I either hate him, love him, or think I want to look harder and form an opinion. I also want a reasonably sized field. To go through 10 or 12 horses to find value other than the jumper horse is just not something I'm going to do and be time efficient. If I want to play a volume of jumper races, the way I want to do it, I have to be mindful of the amount of time it takes to do that. so, I forego the bigger fields. That is point 1. It's very much a part of how I exclude when I make my first pass through all the races. 


My first potential race is race 3 at Gulfstream. Right off the bat, the variables are there to make it a play.


Those are:


-7 horse field, including the jumper horse.


-a low ml (morning line) fave, 7-5, coupled with a low ml on the 2nd fave at 9-5. That tells me there will be win pressure competition for the jumper horse, if

she ends up a jumper horse. Thus, if they both race, its a lock I don't play this race on the jumper side, but find something to go against the top 2. That is a cardinal rule. Win pressure on the jumper horse is one of the best angles to beat that horse. If that horse has zero pressure. So point 2 is never play any jumper horse as a jumper when they have any legit win pressure. They are more likely to lose the ticket position in this scenario. 

My experience is that most jumper horses that get beat but don't fall down somewhere simply run very hard to win, and fade late when that doesn't work out, and completely cave. Of course caving is relative, and you need to pick the ones that can do something about that. If the balance are total no talents that wont take advantage, it becomes a no play race. That is rare, but it happens. Out of the 5 left to run, if they all run, there has to be at least one with some talent to be there if the fave coughs it up. Relative strength of "the rest" is another very important factor or point when you think about making a play. 


The other thing I like about this race--at first glance, is that there are two very low ml horses. That means if one scratches out, but the other stays, its a lock that horse is a jumper horse in the show pool if there are still enough left to leave that pool up. I wont get to know that until the early scratches come out. I have to handicap based on the likelihood they both run. So, I do that.

I start out just rating the horses, so I'm prepared either way. It's an earlier race so I want to get it out of the way. Some of the later ones, I might exclude early, but wont go over them thoroughly until later, so I don't waste time on horses that wont run, or if it changes to a clear no play race. I have 18 on tap to start with, so I don't want to waste any time I can avoid wasting.

There are other variables I noticed early, but I will go over them in my assessment of the field. They are somewhat constants anyway that I use repeatedly, but they aren't things I use early as exclusionary factors on the first pass through.


Gulfstream race 3 is my first race to potentially play as mentioned above. It might be cold out and tracks are cancelling, but Gulfstream is fairly safe from that chance, Being almost as far south as you can get on the map. post time is 1:30, so, I want to be ready early for this one.


Here is the field, top to bottom, by ml odds. 


7  SIERRA LEONA

is the 7-5 ml fave. 3yo chestnut filly by Point Given. Its not a hard and fast rule, but I like to go against chestnuts, against fillies and against inexperienced horses that have shown early, but not terribly impressive results. As for the chestnut part, its a horse person thing. Generally, chestnut's bleed more from their lungs, and they have bad feet and legs, and thus, are prone to lameness, especially the more they run. Its a weak angle, but it is something to think about when you are making plays. Everything matters. I wrote a blog about that a year ago, and its valid. Every little angle matters. That is one of them. For me anyway. 

 I can tell you when I trained, just about every chestnut I had or was stabled with was a bleeder and had suspect or terrible legs. Watching the actual horse run in replays can give me some insight to the particular horse, as does looking at the breeding and noticing anything about their ancestors. That info is out there. Who bled, who was lame, specific problems a dam or sire or their ancestors had. Its just more info. more things that COULD matter. Or not matter at all in this case. That is my job as the handicapper to figure out. I cant see the horse up close, and certainly not one at Gulfstream, so, I have to work with what I have to work with. I can watch them in the walking ring, and as they gallop on the track, etc,,,pre race. You work with the tools you have race to race.


She goes for trainer Chad Summers, who I dont know of at all. I am a standardbred guy by trade and experience, and while I know of many trainers in T- breds, I don't know them all. So, that is one strike against my skill set. Its not a variable I get to work with here. A quick look tells me he has had the filly for all of her starts, of which there were 3 to date. 

He started her out in a maiden claimer, which tells me he is somewhat realistic in how he approaches racing them. Many start in a MSW no matter where they think the horse fits. That race was Oct. 20th, at 6f, and it was a short 5 horse field, with no real long odds horses. She was the 2-1 2nd choice. The lukewarm 8-5 fave sat 5th and last, made a mild bid, never went forward and was a well beaten dead last. So, it was a short and weak field. She did run well, stalked early, made a run at the leader and ground her down, then held off another, but she was all out and the 2nd place finisher was coming to her and passes her if they go another half furlong. That is not the type of bridgejumper horse you lean on, but go against as they race on and try better. You will note if you watch closely that the jock used the right handed whip to get her to go forward, but switched to left handed when he needed to pass the leader, as this filly was running in. When she got by, he went back to right handed. That is a strike against her. If she is already running in her first start, against a short field of maiden claimers, she is likely to not wear well. Not for sure, but its more probable than not.

She came back 20 days later, on November 9th, same distance, but tougher company in an optional 50k claimer, a much tougher bunch. She didn't take the tag, but she was a 29-1 longshot. It was a 7 horse field, and she was the 2nd longest shot. She broke near the back, stayed near there, was out of run at the top of the stretch, under heavy whipping, and beat one horse who was basically eased up. A no factor 6th and she looked bad doing it. Her first two starts were Gulfstream Park West, which used to be called Calder for ages. She shifts to what is now Gulfstream and always has been. I don't see that as significant in this case, although I'm not an expert on these tracks.

5 weeks later, December 14th, back to Gulfstream, this time back in a claimer. She was 10-1 ml, but as can happen, a short priced likely fave was scratched, and she went off a clear 9-5 2nd choice. She won the race, and it was a field of 6 with the scratch of the likely fave, going longer this time at a full mile. Once again, she ran midpack, stalked but sat patient, made a move on the turn, cleared the tired leader who was the chalk, then drew off to win easy, but didn't look like she was running much or had much left herself. As well, the rider switched hands with the whip in exactly the manner he did in her maiden breaking score. The racetrack announcer certainly called her right. She runs at a grind away pace, but once asked, she has very little run if you have to move her earlier as he did in the first start she made. Behind her, there were some very poor runners who likely will be taking big class drops.

Today she runs right back to that tag, that distance, and basically its the same conditions as last time. I feel her win was deceptive to the bettors, and she is vulnerable to go backwards. That is how I intend to play it. So, I move forward with the balance of the field, to see what I have to work with against her. If I'm wrong and she beats me so be it. If this is a jumper race, which I'm not sure it is, I am on the other side and not jumping off her bridge. 7-5 ml suggests the line maker thinks the public are going to jump on her big time, even without a scratch of the 2nd ml fave. I will go with that assessment.


5 DRINKS ON ME 

is the 9-5 2nd ml choice. She is trained by Larry Rivelli, and him I do know of. In watching other tracks, it has been mentioned he races where they fit, where they can win, and he wins a very high rate. If he shows up, he is there to make money. My experience is that is exactly the case in races I've seen his horses run in. As with any trainer, even the most successful, they don't win them all and not every horse runs huge. They are all beatable and you have to keep that in mind. She is a 3yo bay filly by Stay Thirsty, bred by Ken Ramsey and wife, but owned by another person. She is making her 3rd lifetime start, at her 3rd different track as is her trainers MO of finding a spot where the horse can win the most money, and comes off a maiden win her last start, not in a claimer. Clearly at first glance, she looks better on paper than the likely fave. Paper doesn't win races, so, I start there. Her first lifetime start was in a 40k maiden claimer at Keeneland, for the Ramseys and noted trainer Mike Maker. She went off a lukewarm 5-2 fave in an 8 horse field, and ran 4th. And changed hands after the race via a 40k claim.

 That is important. It was 7f, her first start, also a maiden claimer, but she didn't run well. She sat around 6th, behind a bunch of 5 who ran hard and with each other. When asked on the turn, she picked it up a bit, then fanned very wide, was under very heavy left handed urging, but never really went forward, and in fact, went left sharply when tired and almost ran into another. She was not impressive. But she changed hands to Rivelli, and you have to give her a chance to learn and also improve in his care.

Rivelli took her to Hawthorne 22 days later on November 10th, a track he races at a lot. She was in a MSW this time, and was going longer at 1 mile and 70 yards. She went off the 4-1 3rd choice, in a 7 horse field, with a clear even money favorite, and still on lasix. In the race, DRINKS ON ME ran right out of the gate, on the outside of the leader the entire way, but in a grinding style that appears to be her way of racing. That leader was the 5-2 2nd choice, who carried her all the way to the end, and was also another Rivelli runner. Both seemed well spotted. Rivelli got the win and 2nd money, and a nice quick return on the 40k claim. Once again though, she showed a tendancy to both hang in the stretch, and run in badly, which she did worse this time. The even money fave was 3rd, but was never involved and not close to the top 2. It was a relatively weak MSW field by Gulfstream standards. She appears to be a claimer, and Rivelli has figured that out. He took the win for MSW, but once a winner, she is a claimer either way on the move up.

Today she runs off 7 weeks, back in a claimer but this time in for 25k, and shortens up a tad from her winning effort, which seems like a good idea. I can see her, but I can also see her being vulnerable. I wouldn't use her as an option underneath the fave who I will go against. That leaves me with 5 others to choose from for 3 show spots if it plays out that way.


4 SAVANNAH ROXANNA 

is the 6-1 3rd ml choice. She ran against the likely fave in their last race, and was a well beaten, but decent enough 2nd in that one. She ran 8 times at 2, which is to many in my view, and is still going. That has got to take its toll eventually on a very young filly. She won start 6 in a maiden claimer at Woodbine for her current connections, going a mile and sixteenth in a maiden claimer. She is also a chestnut filly, by Shackleford, who seemed to want a shorter distance when he was on the Triple Crown trail and later. But he was a high class and game runner, and did well at Gulfstream as I recall also. She started very early, in mid May in a MSW, and was well beaten, as she was in her other MSW try. As she ran more, and in maiden claimers, she gradually improved with experience and distance added and got it done on October 4th at woodbine. 

A mile in a claimer seems about right for her if she gets the right trip. Gunning at the leader like she did last time isn't that trip. The question of how tired she may be getting is an issue, but I'm expecting odds here and that mitigates the risk she is raced out. I like that she ran hard last time, stayed running well right to the wire, and she is good at this distance. She is a contender for the win, and a decent play against a jumper horse as one of a few who could pick up pieces. She loses the top rider from last time to DRINKS ON ME.


1 CASUAL CARO

 is the 8-1 4th ml choice, a brown filly by UNITED STATES, who I have never heard of. I will look him up closer to post time. She comes out of the same race as the ml fave and 3rd choices, and had dead aim on a tired 

SAVANNAH ROXANNA but could not go by her. That was start 8 for a filly who started out in maiden claimers, has run only in claimers, and took the lone win there in start 5. She has been a bit player in 3 tries since that one, but a decent bit player type who we are looking for if the premise is to go against the top 2 choices. She has a 2nd and 3rd at this distance in those 3 starts, and ran on only 8 days rest last time, but gets the full 3 weeks here. She is playable as an option. Note her 2 worst efforts were on turf and she doesn't race on that here. Otherwise, when in for the right price and distance, and raced properly, she competes and contends, but might take time to get another win.


6 MISS LOTUS FLOWER,

 is a 3yo filly by Haynesfield. She won the maiden claimer on October 4th as the 30-1 longest shot on the board , but has been in deep since. To date, that is her only on the board finish in 7 starts. They have tried distances, different surfaces, and she even tried better horses. Nothing helped.  She raced this bunch on December 14th and was a well whipped 5th as the 40-1 longest shot on the board. She is hard to like in this spot. Nevertheless, I've learned not to discount this type when I don't like the faves a lot, so, I take a closer 2nd look at how she ran. She broke slowly, was well back last, in a gapped out field, never made any move, looked to have no run, and couldn't even pass a very spent front end horse who was walking home. She looks like a 5 claimer at Mountaineer, and I have to pass on her. She has limited ability and doesn't look to be improving. She is 12-1 ml, I'd expect to see 50-1 plus.


2 SHEZ A GREAT ONE 

is a 15-1 outsider with the same trainer as MISS LOTUS FLOWER. I guess the theory is two longshots with some chance to get some money somehow. This type of trainer just runs them and hopes the heavens are on his side that day. She makes her 3rd lifetime start, and her first was a maiden claimer at a mile on the turf, which she won. She moved up the ladder last time, and shortened slightly to 7.5 furlongs, but she stayed on turf and was 8th of 11 at 35-1. It was a bigger, and tougher field, she looked to have some run and try in the stretch. She goes back to a claimer here, switches to dirt, and gets a bit more distance in a shorter field where her stalking style can lay her close to a few who might want to stop in time for her to be viable. In her maiden win, she rocketed out to the lead, cut the entire mile and beat off the fave who challenged her much of the way, and won at 11-1. It was a solid effort. Her sire, TIZ THE ONE, ran only twice in his career, winning both early at 3, both at Gulfstream for trainer Chad Brown. He was a 375k yearling. This filly has some potential at this level and only 2 starts in.


5 BEAUTIFUL WIFE

 is a 2nd time starter in the US, but ran 4 times at Camarero in Puerto Rico. She won a MSW there and was not placed in a stakes race as well. She ran December 9th in a stakes race at 60-1 at this distance. Here she comes back dropped directly into a claimer, although she is still a maiden in this country. She is in a tough spot under those variables. She ran near the back, off the screen most of the way, and was never contentious, although it was her first start here and the track was super sloppy. She has to be considered viable with the unknowns in play. These types are dangerous.


Post script.


I had the two top faves pegged accurately. One was no good at all, while the other was lucky to hold 3rd. They both showed the lameness or soreness I thought I would see, and were grinders whose grinding didn't work with a slightly better class of horses. My viable contender for the win did win, as she did get the trip I thought she needed, while my unknown Puerto Rican horse ran well, and actually had the lead by taking a bold move mid race and finished well. My wild longshot acted up at the gate, and then had to be checked sharply mid race, and she gave up. She is on my radar for a future play, while the others were not good enough or good at all. I had most of it right here, but the odds and math wasn't in my favor, so, I made no play. Discipline is important, and I didn't get the value I was looking for. Such is life. 

----------------------------------------------------------------

Gulfstream race 9 is my next race to play if...the fave races. At a 4-5 ml, its a certain bridgejump horse if it races. I will handicap it now, but not do the rest of the field until I see the changes and know this one is going to dance the dance. Without her, its a no play race, as the rest don't stand out in any way. Nevertheless, if she is 4-5 ml with these, she is short odds whenever she races next, so I have her scoped out whenever that is. Time still well spent and invested.


4 FLY SO HIGH

 is a bay 3yo filly by Malibu Moon, who her trainer Shug McGaughey is very familiar with, as he trained ORB, who is by that sire, and I'm sure others by him as well. She is owned by The Phipps Stable, who are his main clients and high end owners to say the least. She ships in from New York, where she ran 3rd at Aquaduct in her first lifetime start, then won a MSW at Belmont at today's distance on November 16th. In that race, she broke from the inside, ran up and took the lead before the quarter, was on an easy lead with no challengers, opened up at will on the turn, then coasted well ahead, widening out all the way to gap the entire field, while coasting. On paper and just on how she ran, she looks very tough for the bunch she will meet today, which is why she is 4-5 ml. However, that is why you watch the replays. She carries her head funny, and wants to run into the rail very noticably. I need to watch her first start to see if that is just how she runs, or else there is a problem I can take advantage of.

 In that October 9th race, there was a lot of stuff going on. First, she had the outside 12 post, loaded last, then backed out of the gate, went back in without much fuss, but while she did all that, another got ancy, laid down in the gate, got twisted around and then had to be scratched along with another beside her she probably kicked while she was thrashing around. When they all reloaded 5 minutes later, she left out, ran near the back, came along willingly along the outside, ducked between horses and finished a going forward 3rd at 6 furlongs. No surprise they ran her longer her next start and she started better. But, she also showed that tendency to run in, but not as bad as she did in her 2nd start. I see a progression of soreness. That leads me to make her a no play as a jumper play, but I will have to see if she runs and then look at the rest to find the value if it happens to go that way. She will draw a monster jumper if she races, no doubt about it. Probably 1-9 on the win also, and she can be played against in a double if you play that type of play. A quick glance tells me its a deep and talented field, so she can't be ordinary or have an off day and beat this bunch.


Post mortem.


She ran as expected,but her talent was too much for this bunch. The spread I expected for the show pool wasn't even close to being there, so it was a no play for me. I have followed Gulfstream in the past, and there were many jumpers, but today, none. Even on horses that normally justify that. I have to be more careful putting that much time into races that won't be playable in the end. However, I also make other bets, and gaining info on any types like this is worthwhile because I do that. I can see her flaws, and I will get the money payout for my time today in her next few starts. She was just too much for this bunch as it turns out. 


----------------------------------

I had scoped out a whole bunch of races at Freehold which I thought I could get 4 or 5 plays out of, but I didn't do more than list those races. When I got started today, Freehold, along with many other tracks where I had a play or two was cancelled because of cold weather. So, my day was basically done with Gulfstream, which meant no plays period.


I did completely handicap race 1 at Monticello the night before, as I thought that was very playable, but they also cancelled. I had races 8 and 9 listed as playable races there, but didn't do any work and that paid off as there was no races to play. Below is my work on Race 1 that I can use when they recard those horses. I make some handicapping points within these comments, if you are interested in that.  


1 IDEAL CANDIDATE is an old campaigner at age 12. That is not uncommon, and they do very well at places like Monticello, where there are many just like them, the speeds are not as fast as they were once used to, and they can get softer trips to favor them against mostly weaker and inferior or even washed up horses who are being raced for the smallest purse cheques by others who don't even have to or attempt to make a living racing horses. In that vein, the guys who do race these types race them hard and often and make a good buck off them while they last.


One thing you notice about Monticello in particular is that the ml is not well done. Almost all faves are 5-2, some go off 1-9, some don't even go off as the favorite. So, you have to start with it, but quickly look at the horses pp's and connections to see if you think the bettors will hammer it or ignore it. That is strictly based on experience in watching it for long enough. IDEAL CANDIDATE has a high profile and successful trainer, he won his last start--at this level, draws the rail, and has won 5 of his last 6--all at this level, with the only other being from post 7, where he still got 3rd. He will draw a jumper of some kind. Because of the nature of the fields at Monticello, and how the track plays, its not as easy to beat a jumper horse, so you have to find significant flaws to go against. That is where the work begins here.


There wasnt much to see in his last start. He used rail control to leave out, put the chalk in his pocket, got a breather 2nd quarter, sped up the 3rd  quarter and beat off the fave who pulled the pocket very early, in spite of a passing lane, then accelerated away for a very easy win. He looks cinchy today at probably 3-5.

He appears still very sound, and willing. He likes control, and from a good post can leave and get it. The only thing that could get him beat is someone running at him the entire way and taking away his best friend, which is a 2nd quarter breather. So, the task is to look at the rest of the field and see if that is likely, and then make a call. He raced 42 times last year and won 15 of them. He isnt easy to beat.


2 Wink and Nod barely earns his way at this point. He draws well and will be looking to tuck and get a soft trip for a piece of the pie at the end. That is what is to be expected of him.


3 Brett Mcfavrelous is the wildcard in this bunch. You just never know with Staulbaum. He is very aggressive at times, and would park out his grandmother if that meant he would win the race. This horse shipped to Monticello last time, as Buffalo is closed for a while, and its a place Staulbaum knows well, as he used to race here steady for years. He dropped class last time, but while he had the rail, he was outleft, then stayed in 3rd, and backed up the entire way. So, he drops to the bottom claimer here. He is hard to like, but I could see Staulbaum blasting him out and trying to get the lead and hoping for a retake by the fave so he can sit a 2 hole. If that happens, and he gets hung, it could be a rodeo.


4 Oncoming Storm has lousy form and has had not done well at Monticello overall anyway. His last 3 have been bad, and he takes a further drop in class here. He had post 7 last time, went to the back, did nothing, and closed with the pack but passed none of them. He is hard to like or think he will be any factor in the pace. He has missed the ticket in his last 10 starts.


5 Lynyrd is by a sire I hate, and most of them are non triers and bad finishers. He fits that profile to a T. He has the longest ml odds, and for good reason. He had a bad post last time, went to the back and did zero to make you think he can do much better here. He is in deep to make the ticket or have any effect on this field.


6 Celtic Art comes off two wins but moves up. Moves up is relative. he isn't meeting Cam fella here. Post will hurt, but good form goes a long way when you meet many with bad form. Last time, he left well from the inside, stacked up the only other contenders, controlled the race and outfinished the pocket sitter. That might have worked here too, if he could get that type of trip. He wont. Two starts back, he blasted out from the 6 hole, cut very hot fractions and took them all the way as the longest shot on the board, but he bottomed out the field and came home in 32. If he blasts here, and doesn't get the lead or a hole, and pushed the pace with his overall good speed, he could set it up for others and wipe out the favorite with him. That is the key to the race.


7 Terrorize the Moon has decent form, but draws post 7 in a race with inside speed in front of him and likely a bunch of hangers who will block the road mid race. He can blast, as he did last time from the rail, but he doesn't have a second move. He was 2nd last time, but well back and outstaggered ratty hangers. He is likely to take back and come late. In that scenario, he is viable for the ticket if others battle.


As mentioned above, this race never came to be. So, who knows if I was right on not. But they will meet again, and I have a pretty good read on most of them from doing this. I will make it pay off under the right circumstances.


Knowledge is power. That is always my view.

Understand horses...and the people who contest races.

Today, in my Facebook group, my friend Chuck Jones made a post. I will share it below.

It was an insightful post, and I like that Chuck knows he doesn't know enough on his own and avails himself of the help that is there in my group. That includes myself, my friend Garnet Barnsdale, who is a paid handicapper, and a host of others, including seasoned players and professional trainers.

Right off the bat, I knew what Chuck was thinking, because many would think it, and its the common perception that most will have...if...they don't know horses, and they don't know the people who participate in the racing of horses.
So, I made a comment, which you will see in the above screen cap, and then I wrote a status, which I will post below that.


"Since Chuck brought it up, I'm going to take the time to make a handicapping point.
In another group Chuck and I are in (and some others in this group), a guy made a post about speed horses in the T breds. His theory was that front end speed would win the majority of races, and to play them that way. In the race he mentioned, he thought that would be the case, but while it was, he wasn't on the winner, a 14-1 shot, because he didn't show any gate speed on his recent lines.
When Chris Christoforou was in this group, someone mentioned that a certain driver can "make speed" with horses. Chris mentioned that any driver can make any horse leave if they really want to. That is just something you know if you train horses, and drive them. If a horse can close in 27, he can leave in 27. Cool Rock showed that last week when he wired the field, when he is noted by the talking heads as a "stone cold closer" which is really just bullshit.
Back in the day, a horse called Shady Hill Pride was a WEG warrior for many years. He was so noted as a lay back, then monster closer, that Earl Lennox would call him coming wide on the last turn every time, as he was "winding up"...and coming from "the end east parking lot"..which Greenwood had but most didn't want to park in that lot, as it was far from where you sat to watch the races. One day, Harold Stead was driving the horse. I don't think he was the regular driver, and that day, for whatever reason, he blasted off the wings, opened up daylight, and maintained it. After that day, the horse was on the front end a lot, and won some, lost some. When he was older, he was a crazy front end kamikaze that could open up 20 on a field of 2 claimers at Hanover or Orangeville. Sometimes he held on, other times he caved. He had enough ability edge on those fields to attempt that. We have seen Stature Seelster try that at WEG, and it doesn't work. At Flamboro, it can work for him, but still, he can get picked up like he did last time.
I had a mare I claimed called Mac Ms R Nukes. She had one monster brush, the No Nukes brush many have seen if they watch his old races. She was by a son of No Nukes, out of a Sonsam mare, another horse with a crazy brush. She was racing off the pace every week, and winning. She had low lifetime earnings, so, I claimed her, and put her in low earning conditions for a big purse at London. Those were the times when the money was really flowing.
I got her home, and she was very quiet and lazy. Two fingers to jog as they say.
So, after a day or two, I turned her and rattled her cage. I woke her up.
I put her in at London, and got the rail. I thought I was a cinch winner. She was so hyped up, she was hard to get off the trailer. Anyway, she blasted out and daylighted the field most of the way, only to get beat by some WEG class dropper Mark Etsell had. Still, 2nd money was good money. I put her back in that class, she drew the rail again, and pulled the same stunt. She got 2nd again, then regressed. She was not really a good horse to put on the front, as she wouldn't rate once you started doing that. That is why many don't do it. You end up with a Stature Seelster once you let them get that way.
But make no mistake, just about any horse can be that type, if you want to race them that way. Don't get sucked into a program page that makes you think one horse will be the only speed. When other drivers see that, they think this is the night to leave and take a shot."
 
Further, I made a comment about which horse I thought would do something that most would not expect, and as it played out, that horse did exactly that. What was that?

In a race with apparent lone speed, with the favorite having that speed, a horse who shows flashes of that sort of thing, would be gassed out of there to go with her, and try to take advantage of that.
My point to Chuck, and others, was that most horses can leave, even if they don't show that very often, or even at all. It's there if you want to ask them to do it. There is a reason mostly why you don't, but that doesn't mean there isn't a reason on that day to try it.
Now, say you were a jockey. You can read the program just like the bettors can. Everyone thinks the fave is the lone speed, you know your horse can also go if asked, and possibly most of the others are going to take back. This is your chance to get out, sit on that one's back, stay close, suck along, and then take your shot at the end of the race. That is what jockeys do, and what the good ones are paid to do. That is...figure out how to win races and make calls that win races that most times the horse should lose.
Think about that the next time you think there is a lone speed horse, and nobody will go with that one. Likely, something that doesn't show gate speed will take a shot. And you will get long odds, because nobody is figuring that one will.
That is how value plays are created.

10 valid thoughts for the serious horseplayer.

1. Your time is the most important variable to consider. If you waste it in any way, your ROI will go down by that amount. You have to work on ways to use your time better. Time is money is a very valid concept for serious horseplayers. 

2. Hit rate is not that important. Its not irrelevant either. But, no matter what your hit rate is, if you don't play for value, you are guaranteed to lose money. 

3. What others say is important. They might give you info you can use. But your own opinion and system is always the most important thing to listen to. Others will always say things that will trigger you, and they will think up things you would have never thought to test or try. Doesn't mean they are right, but it means they are a resource to avail yourself of. It doesn't replace what you do, but it can add to it if applied correctly. Don't discount anyone until they convince you that is the best option.

4. You don't know it all, and neither does anybody else. If they claim they do, its a sure sign they know little, and certainly less than you if you are already successful. You never stop learning if you play the horses. I've done if for 35 years, and I learn more now than I did 2 years ago. 

5. Winning at the races is simple, but its not easy. Its hard work and its a constant battle to get better faster than the others can catch up to your edge. Set time away from playing to get better every day. It will pay off in better returns over time.

 

6. You have to accept losing, and make plays that will lose, trying not to be perfect. Its the net amount you win that matters, not whether you win or lose a bet. Hardest one of these 10 for a perfectionist like me to master. I've worked hard to accept losing as part of the winning process.

 

7. Until you figure out other ways of playing, stick to what you know and what works for you. Profit is profit. How you do it, and how others do it doesn't matter. Whoever makes the best return on their bankroll is doing it right for themselves. I probably don't understand your bets that well, and you won't understand mine. Its not a race to figure out how others do it. The goal is to do it well yourself, and that is all that matters.

8. Numbers don't lie. If you gather valid data, what others think about an angle mean nothing if your data is tested and proved valid. You will win, and they will lose. Facts trump opinion. They likely wont understand what you do, how you figure it out. That is not your problem. That is your edge.

9.Study what losers say and play. They will lead you to angles and success just by steering you away from poor and ill conceived plays. Stupid is very valuable in this scenario. The flipside of a loser is a winner taking their money. Without losers, we would only be trying to beat whales with supercomputers and high powered brainiacs on their payroll. Good luck with that.

10. You have to be consistent. You can never alter your strategy or how you play because you win or lose a lot in a day or week. If you know what you are doing, trust yourself. If you don't trust your ability, your work and your plan, you might as well just burn the money. At least it will be useful and heat your house. It certainly will disappear if you don't stick with the plan you have set out.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 13, 2017

RACE 1

1 Expose Yourself

​ ​

d

​id ​

​

​some winning in the winter at Pompano, where Henry spends the winter. She came back home with aspirations to tackle the better ones. She is definitely a live wire parading and going to the gate, so anything that can help her when she gets rocky might help. The first time she made the gate and was away well, but she seemed to be in way too tough, and chasing the likes of Magic Presto and some of the lesser ones behind her were too much for her. She blew up before she got started both times after that, and went back to school with the trotting hopples, which kept her together enough to blast out a 57.3 mile at Grand River. That can't be discounted, but, the rail is very bad again at Mohawk, it claimed Hill Yes last night, and there have been no winners the last two cards. I find her hard to latch onto with all the variables in play.

2 Late Shift

​ ​

h

​ad post 10 last time, blasted out to an easy lead as there were many jumpers who weren't in the road, but in spite of reasonable fractions from there, packed it in when it mattered. She did the same thing from the 6 hole the race before that, although the back half and overall time were much faster. It could be that she is a 58 trotter at this stage and that will only get her what it does. I'd have to think that isn't good enough to take down this entire bunch. She is an 0 for 12 maiden facing a few winners here. If her 5-2 ML top choice holds, I'd think she is very bad value.

​

3 Hab Faith

​ is pretty much in the same boat as Late Shift. She has enough gate speed to get up into contention, but when they start asking her for more, she wilts. ​

​Like many, her good manners, solid gait and early speed served her well at 2, but its not enough to carry her at 3, when the fields are deeper and faster as a rule. I can't see her on her current performance.​

4 Sweet Kimmy

​look to have been a project horse for Burgess since he broke her.​

​

​  She managed to pull it together and surfaced finally on Friday at Grand River, where she was a distant 2nd to a very high end prospect who toyed with and outclassed the field. She was a good 2nd to him. She is a longshot for sure, but appears to have some upside as she learns her craft. I like that she at least makes the gate and gets away clean most times. Last time she stayed at it the entire way, and under pressure first up. Outside of an equipment break in a qualifier, she has kept it together the entire way this season. She now needs to do that and go faster. 2:01 over Grand River is in range with most of these if she makes the 3 second gain you can from that oval to this one. Blair turns her over to Saftic, which is another positive sign. Shot.

​

5 Muscle Lane

​ raced at 2, but she wasn't much and clearly wasn't ready to compete. She has come back ready to play, trying to go down the road in her first start at Kawartha, and only being picked off on the wire. She is possible, but she will have to leave faster to get control with a few that are both inside and outside of her. I want to see her once with this level of competition. She could slide onto the ticket if enough of them blow up, she behaves and drops another second or two. Kawartha is a very fast track, so that might not happen like it can with the ones coming from Grand River or other half mile tracks.
​

6 Northern Oath

​ raced decently at 2, finishing 3rd to Cameron Hill, and drawing two 10 holes prior to that, and a solid 4th in the start before that, all starts where she was just below or at 2 minutes. ​

​She qualified good upon return, in 58 at Georgian, then made a break leaving last time, but recovered. I'd have to think they don't pay 350 bucks to race in this spot unless its something they can rectify, when she could go right back into a maiden and bag 3k without paying up to try and get it. Good upset potential, Steve Byron brings in a lot of longshots and is a very fine driver with young stock.
​

7 Literally

​won a Grassroots last year when she first came out, then was 2nd and 3rd in two Golds, before tailing off and being shut down. She qualified a 2nd time, over a month ago, and then came up sick for her first start. That is hard to go on, and her consistent weak last quarters make her tough to go to. Lets see her return to the promise she showed early last year. Being a Justice Hall, she is likely to be very erratic. Good longshot prospect some time this summer when the variables come together.
​

8 Angies Dish

​ ​

s

​hows nothing to suggest she is viable in this spot, or any other spot for that matter. I have to see something positive from her. Zeron's stock has mostly been awful this late spring and early summer. Pass for now.​

​

9 Twin B Venus

​draws poorly, is yet to show the speed of most of these, and I would think is hoping to pick up a decent cheque. A return to Grand River and that type of class seems the better spot. ​

​

​ She still fits the class she got 2nd in last time. She has enough allowance to take 4th or 5th here, get her speed down a bit, and return there for a few scores. ​

10 Hudsons Ya Ya

​draws poorly and her two starts this season have not been impressive. I can't see how she wins this. ​

RACE 3

1 Gisele Treelane

​ ​

m

​ust have showed high ability all along, as she really looked hopeless in all her preps. She finally held it together, then ​

​found the perfect soft field composed of no talents and runners to simply one move late and mow them all down with a 57 flat back half. She blew up again last time, but she is a young trotter learning. She could be either tonight, but the ability looks to be there. I'd like to see her parade before I make any play on her, but if you are playing the pick 5, I'd consider her a must use. Post 1 could be tricky for her, but if she gets away clean and doesn't spot them 15 to the half, she is in play.
​

​

2 Powerful Mission

​ shows very high speed at times, and can beat a tough enough bunch when she keeps it together. Her breeding suggests she wont very often, but on any given night, she is one or the other. ​

​She was rolling wide last time when she blew up, and I'd think Phil will try to avoid that trip and stay in as long as possible, aiming to split horses or swing out when they are going straight. Shot, but iffy as the page and her lines suggest.
​

3 Moni Justice

​ seems to be like most of the young ones Dagfin brings out....she has ability, he doesn't let much of it show early as he keeps them within themselves and gradually ups the ante as they show they could possibly be ready for that demand. Off a qualifier and a decent race at Georgian where she trotted in 2 minutes and took 2nd, I could see her as a decent add. There are enough iffy ones in here to suggest they could just self destruct while she takes her time down to 57, and that might be enough. Tough call when you don't have a lot to go on except the trainers history. Her slow starts put her in a hole, and these are likely to be even faster to the half. That is a negative first time out with this sort of company.
​

4 Magic Maddy

​ ​

​looks like the bit player type for now. I suppose eventually she could mature and come into herself, like many do. At this stage, not winning on the Kawartha soft spot, and only getting 3rd to a very weak bunch last week don't inspire me to think she can do much more, and many of these do have that upside.
​

5 You Cant Afford Me

​ was a solid 2nd in nw3 last time, and that coupled with her overall time, likely makes her the favorite here. I'm not sold that she is worthy of that, based on 1 good race and being 2nd to a mare who went winless for 2 years, then didn't have much last night either. I will go elsewhere and let her beat me. She is not proven as a winner against stakes types. Her high level of inbreeding also suggest consistency can be an issue. She hasn't proved yet that isn't in play.
​

6 Hilarious Honey

​ has been all over the racing map, Georgian, Philadelphia, The Big M, Pocono, and not got the job done yet. However, this type, in this type of class, over time, in my view, can be very dangerous. Nobody gets an accurate read on them, and they move them around because they feel the horse is worthy of all that effort. Philly and Pocono race every week, many times a week. You could just leave her there and race maidens for free. Why ship here again and pay up to race? I'm suspicious that she might bring more to the table than they have showed us. Yes, she is a maiden, and she has had 10 tries to change that status. But she also has 6 OTB finishes, and some money made. The other note of interest is that Philly is well known to those that watch it as being a trap along the rail to start from for a young trotter, or any trotter, or even some pacers. The track is very loose and the turns are uneven ground. That plays into her current form, as does a tune up at Georgian last time where she wasn't bad, although a bad overbet favorite. Neither of those factors are her fault.

​

7 Holiday Style

​ shows nothing to suggest she can go with maidens, let alone stakes horses and some who are winners. I can't see her.
​

8 Lady Justice

​ made 52k last year, but never won a race. Her first two this year have been terrible, and she draws bad again. Another I cannot see at this stage, but Henry might turn her around during the summer. I will watch for tonight.
​

9 Gaelic Lass

​ has a bad post, a low percentage driver, and doesn't look fit enough or fast enough to compete yet. Lets see what she can do. I don't like her tonight, that is obvious from my previous comment. She gets 1st time trotting hopples, so there is room for improvement as she goes along.
​

10 Angora Seelster

​ has some speed, and some upside, but as for tonight, she has a non driving trainer and the 10 hole, and she is erratic on her own. Can't play her from what I see, but she will be a player at some stage this season.

​

RACE 5

1 Try to Resist

​ is a maiden leaving from the rail who has not showed the speed or ability of many of these. Cant see her getting money.
​

2 Perfect Delight

​ trotted a solid mile in her first effort of the year, 2nd of her career. I can see her going forward and she would be a decent longshot if her ML holds, which I suspect it wont.
​

3 Tymal Declan

​ has not shown anything to suggest she belongs with this group, or at this track. She will have to fool me. She appears to be a nice B track horse if she sticks to that and stays in conditions.
​

4 Da Miracle

​ ​

t

​rotted a decent yet unspectacular mile last time, shaving her time down considerably in her first start of the year. She is another who could step up, in a race where there are many unknowns.
​

​

5 Bustingattheseams

​is somewhat erratic, yet capable enough when she keeps it together. Post 5 might favor her getting out near the top, where she appears to like it. Randy is not opposed to doing that and then sitting the entire mile looking for a late opening. That could be the right formula here. She shows bursts of speed at different points in different miles. If she gets the right trip, that burst could be valuable tonight. Shot.
​

6 Anikadabra

​  made a good buck at 2, winning the Grassroots final and many other legs, but has not come back sharp. She could take heavy win money tonight, and based on her inclination to go backwards so far, and run last time, I will take my shot against her.
​

7 Majestic Kat

​ can be a slow starter, and that is a bit of a problem, but generally she is progressing and going forward as she races on. She is a viable option if the price is right. I'd want 4-1 to try her, but either way, I'd use her in the picks.
​

8 Jilona

​ seems to trot right around 57, which might be good enough here. Post will hurt her, potentially, as she has started slow from the outside and not been able to make up the difference. That being the case, I could see Trevor blasting and taking his shot, and my opinion is that if that were to occur, it will set it up for something late, or Randy if he gets on her back and finds a way out at the right time. A lot of ifs and maybe's, but its an angle in a race like this.
​

9 Ticket to Seattle

​ ​

b

​eat ​

​ a very weak bunch 3 weeks ago, draws badly tonight, and loses her driver to her stablemate. That is enough for me to pass on her.
​

​

10 Kendras Coco

​ ​

i

​s an 0 for 10 maiden from the 10 hole coming off a break. That makes her hard to like on multiple levels.