WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 15, 2017

RACE 3

1 Noble Prize was aimed at some bigger prizes at 2, and bagged 34k along the way, but never won. He parked to make the lead in his qualifier, but went the wrong way from there, trotting a poor back half and not even near the top bunch. Mayotte is a fine horseman and capable enough as a driver, but he is low percentage, the horse has the rail and he has no reason to push him here. I can pass on this one and watch to see if he is making any progress.

2 The Back Nine is a first time starting 3yo by Muscle Mass, and most of those take a while to figure it out. They are generally steady, smart enough, and earn a good buck as they go along. He might be one of those. We shall see. He wasn't even in the ballpark in his qualifier where Noble Prize was well ahead of him. He looks tough to back until you see some experience in his ledger. He is a homebred and I guess these people are patient. They are names I recognize from many years back, so they probably are taking the long term view on this horse, as will I.

3 Holiday Money shows X's all over the page, but being he is handled by Greg Peck, he probably will be thrown into an OSS gold because we just don't see the potential in him that he does. Blair gave up on him. I can't even think of going near him until he shows some talent and can keep his act together over an actual mile. 5 starts into his career, he is 0 for 2 in that regard.

4 Stritch qualified 3 weeks ago but did not race until this start. Warning sign for me. Not the worst thing, but at a 2-1 ML, and his performance last year, I wouldn't be taking a short price on a horse like that. Maybe he was just sick, and they waited. Maybe he was sick and they will race him easy tonight because he has some OSS races coming up. Steacy has been known to operate that way. On paper, he looks solid, dependable, capable and more talented than most of these. Paper doesn't win races. I will have to see him, and of course, he has to be used in a pick 5 play, but, he is likely bad value as a win prospect. Not that that will stop the sheep from getting sheered.

5 Try Try Again looks like the one to me. But first, lets get it right. He was 2nd in his qualifier, beat about 6 lengths in 2:00.3, not 3rd by 15 lengths as charted. He was well in hand and wasn't being asked to do more. He looks like a serious prospect, he has big time connections. From a pedigree perspective, he is bred to be a very good one. His mother, Sweetspellosuccess is a Credit Winner half sister to Marion Marauder, and her dam is Spellbound Hanover, A world champion who has produced a Hambo winner. His dam has produced 2 other foals that were no good at all at 2, but came on at 3. It was probably wise to lay off this one and let him do what he can probably do best, which is mature into himself and earn that way.  As he is still eligible to some big dances as Hamilton has noted, they probably feel that way about him.  Hamilton didn't watch the qualifier, or he would have seen what I did and what Ryan Willis told me he saw. If the 4 takes big money, he could easily take him at a price. He is still a first time starting maiden though, and that can't be lost in the conversation.

6 Hp Run Like Mom is a homebred for her connections, but Ben B has not been able to do much with her. She doesn't appear ready to win at WEG, and she blew up as a 50c on the dollar chalk at Flamboro last time. Back here she comes, but she will have to prove she can do a lot more to get me on board. I will watch. She has some speed, but probably not enough for the best ones in here at this stage. In spite of Hamilton's detailed commentary, she is not a colt, but a filly taking on some colts and one filly who is likely to be the favorite.

7 Spark Business is a 4yo with very few starts, off a very long layoff going for new connections and was far behind my top choice in the qualifier. Based on his breeding, he will have to be seen. He is likely to be a loon. I will look him over in the post parade. He has enough X's on the page to get the win in Tic Tac Toe.

8 Charmbo Chrome made 11 starts at 2, but didn't win. However, he is on his sires best cross, to Angus Hall, and he showed decent speed in the qualifier, and some overall ability in his races last year. He is a viable option to use even from the 8 hole if you think the 4 might not fire tonight and the 5 is not a known quantity to rely on yet. Both of those statements can easily hold water.

9 Archangel Raphael is a 3yo colt that has some breeding on his side, being by Muscle Hill and coming from a female family that included talented ones like Dancers Victory, but also troubling soundness issues, which many Muscle Hill's can also be prone to. This one is a half brother to Lady Dynamite, who shows some flashes of ability. Post 9 tonight, and Zeron is likely to just get him around and build up his confidence and experience. He is not impossible, but I don't want to go deep here, so I would leave him off and take the chance that even if he is going to be something, tonight is not the night.

10 E T Phone Home was mentioned to be a project horse by Durand last fall, a big fumbly trotter with some learning issues. He shows the speed, but, between the horse, the driver, the post and his current suspect form, I can pass and watch.

Here is my overall synopsis of this race. It would be tempting to single the 5 here, but that would also be foolish. I would go 3 deep and overweight the 5 and short the 4 and 8 as backups.

RACE 7

1 Electric Western takes the healthy class drop, and that is very much in his favor. He does that with very good form, which also works for him. He tows Mario B, who is a very low percentage driver (Mario Baillargeon (177-10-12-22-.135) at this stage, and that is a problem. Post 1 is also an issue for a horse that has gate speed when its a good time to use it, and this class would be that time for him. Also note that while he is racing well and dropping at least 2 classes, he was a longshot in every one of those races, so the public viewed him as over his head in every one of those, and rightly so, as he didn't prove them wrong. Last time, he blasted out from the 5 hole, let Randy cut it, who for some strange reason let Phil clear when he was hung and going nowhere and then backed into all of them, including Mario who got left in. When he finally got out, he closed well and wasnt badly beaten by a group who towers over this bunch. He is a must use, but Mario is a little slow off the switch to make moves now, and that can easily get him beat if he cant make front, which post 1 might prohibit him from doing.

2 Ciona Bromach picked up some nice shares in the bottom classes here, and moves up a shade because of that. Last time at Flamboro in the Preferred 3, he was 3 wide on the last turn when the leader was live, the pocket horse was live and first up was the winner. He was also 45-1 from the 2 hole, and he backed up to finish 8th. Trevor took Weller's over him, and while that used to be automatic, it isn't anymore and that one has horrid form and lines. Pass on this one for me until he hits bottom again. He fits nw of 3000l3 at Flamboro if he doesn't earn tonight, and that is likely his next stop.

3 Rockin Finish strangely does not have Trevor aboard, the driver who he won with last time and has a pretty suspect one to drive against him. He does get Roy, but its an odd driver change. He has 528,000 reasons to be able to move up from the bottom off a win, a layoff to keep him fresh, and a weak group to tackle. And a driver who is winning with just about anything live he touches these days. He is also 9 for 32 in the win column over the last two seasons, and has won 37 times, many at a high level. Big shot, but he would have to bring a decent price to be a win play. Easy use in the pick 4 to close it out if you are playing that. With the allowance for the sloppy track last time and his overall past ability (not back class, but back ability), he is in range time wise.

4 Burning Shore dropped last time, but he met Machal Jordon who was also doing that, and MJ is the king of the castle of the drop and pop. He hung in there with him, but was never a threat to haul him down, as none of them were. Roy jumps off him for the 3, and Randy gets back aboard a horse he has driven many times. With his leaving ability, and this post, he could trip out, and we all know Randy loves to do that. I'd have to use him based on that scenario playing out. Over his career, he is a very low percentage winner when he looks like he can win it. Even more reason for Randy to bury him and hope he gets lucky at the right time. Just a side note for Hamilton. He is a gelding, not a mare.

5 Bs Tyrrific has missed a month, and one could argue he has been MIA for much longer than that. He did draw poorly on April 15th, and they did go a big mile, so, he has the potential to have hidden form. That is a big stretch and a very optimistic view, but Trevor lands on him when he probably could have had the drive on the 3. Hmmm. He isn't impossible with this post and his decent win record. If I had one spot left over when my pick 4 ticket was done, I'd add him on the chance he wakes up and others bomb out. Its very pie in the sky, but not like that doesn't happen a lot in this type of class.

6 Mac Raider was sent to Flamboro by Cullen to try and steal some purses while he could, a tactic he wisely uses with the B team when they can't quite cut it at WEG. On his first try, he got up on the wire by a nose in the lower class. Last time, on a sharp move up to the top Preferred level there, with Davis driving, he blasted out like a bat out of hell, made the lead but had to go plenty to keep another in the 2 hole. This horse will begin pulling and wont relax when he is driven that way, and while Davis got the breather on paper, the horse was using energy anyway. Then under attack in the 3rd quarter, he fended that one off, only to get picked up in the lane by 2 of them, and others were right beside him. He is back now, as that class is too tough for him, and he has to face tougher than he was racing last time he was here. The post is in his favor here, for the style he likes, and I suppose that gives him a shot for a longshot upset. Possible use in the picks, but I probably wont. There are enough others in here I do like and he has to beat all of them. I don't see it playing out that way.

7 Hes a Sensation goes 3rd off the shelf, usually a pretty good angle for him, as he seems to go lame and need long layoffs and comes back sounder for a while each time. This time, not as sound. He is getting up there in age, and traditionally he does best right at the bottom, which he has not reached yet. Roy is off, Phil is back on, and he has done very well with this horse over the horses career. Be mindful of that. I'm not sold he is ready to win yet. He had broken equipment last time, but I want to see him compete and he has yet to do that since his return. Pass and watch.

8 Casimir Overdrive was his old self last time. So so leaver, out moving under heavy urging, backing up on the turn, coming back on turning down the lane and going enough to get some money. Post 8 will dig a deeper hole tonight, and he isn't at the bottom either. I prefer others and he has to show me he can do a bit more for the time he reaches the next level down, if that plays out. Pass for me.

9 Weatherly can be fairly effective at the bottom, but he is a low percentage winner as a rule, trip dependent, and not liking parking long ways to do his best. All of that goes against his chances here, when he is not at the bottom, draws the 9 hole, and was going all he could go last time to get 2nd. I will pass and roll the dice against him proving me wrong here.

10 Dalton Did It  dropped in class last time and tried to wire them up from the 4 hole. Things were looking good until the favorite steamrolled him on the turn and said goodbye. He hung in there for a while, but then spit the bit and collapsed. With post 10 tonight in the same class, back of the bus looks likely and brush late for a share and a positive move towards a possible better draw next time. For the 30k they paid, he is not looking like a good investment at this stage.

Here is my overall synopsis of this race. This race is ripe for some kind of illogical longshot to step up and beat a few in here with not terrible form, but reasons to think they can lay down when it matters. I have mentioned which those are, and I'd play both sides of the fence here and use all of them. They are highlighted in pink. 5 deep.

RACE 9

1 Dovuto Hanover has been skating on very thin ice soundness wise for a very long time. I'd say at least 2 years, but it could be longer. To his credit, he tries his heart out. Unfortunately, his legs have little left to give, other than the speed that was bred into him when he was a clean legged yearling. Here he takes another drop in class, but there really is no choice. He is so lame and used up, in my view its just a matter of time before they scrape him off the track and that will be a sad day and sad ending to a very nice horse in his day. Last time, he drew the 9 hole as Cullen tried a lower nw condition, and he attempted to blast off the gate, but first he ran in sideways, then he put in steps. Cullen drove on, and he was hung into the backstretch, where he found a 3 hole. He kept up until the turn, where he was rough gaited (called by Middleton) but no more so than he always is, and then shuffly all through the lane, but still trying and going forward to pace up for 4th money. In spite of his obvious soundness and shelf life issues, I could see someone dipping in and taking him tonight. If that is the case, Cullen will beat the crap out of him and probably use him harder than he should. I can't back him off what I continue to see.

2 Next Thing Smoken travels a lot as Joe C. looks for spots for him to win races, and he can do that because of his location and proximity to all those tracks and his ability to ship here by whatever means he does that. Two trips to Northville have resulted in two wins, and each time he does that, he has to go elsewhere to find a place to compete. Last time that was Hoosier, a place he was very good at a couple of years ago when he raced at the Open level and did well. Note his 1:50.2 win last year there. He is not that horse anymore, clearly, but he can still move around the nw classes and find the right claiming class to be viable if the trip is right. He was 6th of 6 at Hoosier, straight to the back with no gain but he kept up. Now he returns, in a 15k claimer here, which is a drop from the 20k he competed at last time he took a tag at this track, and he picks up J Mac, who does very well with Joe C. He drew the rail and 2 hole when he raced at Woodbine, and both of those were very bad posts over the meet and also around the time he raced there. He ended up with a tough trip in his last Woodbine try, and held his own but faded at the end. He did pace in 52.1, last quarter in 27.1 over Hoosier last time and won parked the mile at Northville, 3 high on last turn, beating among others Cobble Beach, who is not a bad horse for Northville types. He has sneaky good form and a license to be good enough to take these.

3 Cheyenne Ford was claimed for 17k by Johnson and Casie Coleman, but he was not good enough, so they dropped him so that they could get out on him and get another one. Mission accomplished. He beat that group, with a 12k attached, but most were in for 10k and are even suspect at that price. He meets far tougher here, and loses the gas that a Johnson, Allard, and others can provide. I think he is over his head with this group and I will pass on him. Even though he won last time, he still didn't have a lot of interest in going by them. These will give him a fight for that if he even tries. He has been known to quit when that happens.

4 Think Again is now at the earnings point that he can't rely on beating up on conditioned claimers. In with these types twice, he has gotten 5th money. These are likely to go 52 or so, and he has never shown he can beat 53 and change, which is where his lifetime record sits and where he won at last year as well. He seems a second tier type with these, and more viable if it was a 12 to 15 claimer and he drew okay with those. No cheque tonight and he will fit the class that goes in race 11 tonight. Keep an eye on him for that possibility. He is a outsider longshot in with these.

5 Lonewolf Currier is a lot of things. At one time, he was a very high end, very fast stakes horse. He paced in 1:48.3 over a 5/8ths as a 3yo, but he broke down after that, and has never been the same. These days, if you can convince him to try, he is about an 18 claimer, give or take. He also does not like to go onto the track or turn and pace to the gate, so he needs assistance and convincing to do that. That is a sign he isn't really all that interested in his current career options. He is the typical The Panderosa foal, in that his desire can be severely lacking, but his speed is certainly there. As I mentioned in Race 11, Robbie Mac knows value, and knows when to bail and take some profit. He moved his price from 22k to 20k, and that was enough to complete the sale. Hart/Gangell/Friend et al jumped in, and off that race, jacked him up to an optional 30k race, where he met a tough claimer in Musselsforbrussels and a tough conditioned foe in Audreys Dream, and others who soundly trounced him when he made a first over bid to no avail with them. The Katie Gangell era appears to be over and Friend returns and they move him in for 20k, possibly hoping somebody will bail them out. It might happen. He loses Roy, and picks up Phil. While I like and respect Phil's talent and skills, currently, he is a big downgrade from what Roy is doing. Roy takes the Moreau horse here no matter what, but, I have to go elsewhere and pass on this horse tonight.

6 Mckinney seems to like this class, but I think they have written it since his last try with them. That being the case, Ryan took him to Flamboro, where he already races regularly, and did what you do with this one. He blasted out looking for the top, but another was faster away, so he sat a comfy pocket the entire way and had a clear shot at him in the passing lane, but couldn't quite go by, and another took both of them in the 3 path. It was pretty much a blanket finish. He seems to be between classes right now, in that he is okay with these, and viable, even possible, but, he probably a solid 18 to 20 claimer for the win prize, and he is an even better fit in the bottom 3 conditioned nw classes, but he needs to drop 2 lines to get back in there. A victim of his own success. He bears watching and has a shot with these, but he will be all over the bottom types if he gets there and holds his decent current form. Keep an eye on him. Ryan has a very high ROI, both as a trainer, a driver, and a trainer/driver because he brings in a lot of longshots and finds the right trip when he can. He did exactly that 4 back when he took his lifetime record, although I think he has paced faster in the past but not won. I'd have to use him tonight for all the reasons I have mentioned. As a 10-1 ML, he could easily be overlooked in the late pick 4 and wipe out a lot of players.

7 Panedictine goes 2nd off the claim for Fuller, who seems to do well with these types. He jacked him up in class last time and he was no good, making a break and was distanced. I don't like the connections he has gone through, and being that he is always one that looks borderline lame, I am suspicious he will hold up as he travels from barn to barn. Somebody is going to lose the game of musical chairs and eat him. He might get claimed again tonight
and McNair won with him the last two times he drove him for two different barns. His 9 for 49 win record over the last two years is certainly a positive, and many of those were for big odds. Your call. I'd have to see him to make a true call, but if you are playing the pick 4, I'd think he has to be used to cover your ass.

8 Jimmy Be Good is one of those that is good, not good, good, and who the hell knows on any given night. He has always been that way. Moreau has had him for a couple of months now, and he keeps looking for spots to make him profitable considering the kind of things he needs to do and what that costs to race one out of his barn. He tried him twice at Flamboro but he couldn't get the job done, although he bagged 2nd in the top class. Back in at Mohawk, he was a very good 2nd to Lisvinnie last week and fits this class nicely, with the tracks top driver on board again. Moreau and Roy have a positive ROI together, and he is a must use in the picks, but I suspect bad win price value.

Here is my overall synopsis of this race. To me it all hinges on who gets claimed and how they might be raced. If Dovuto Hanover is claimed, he will push the pace and likely set it up for others. I will go on the premise he will get claimed. I see Jimmy Be Good being claimed, and being sent right out, with McKinney going right with him from the best post to leave from on this track. That leaves Dovuto coming at whoever holds the lead down the backside, and any number of others latching on to the flow, and in the end, if Next Thing Smoken is good tonight, J Mac somehow finding a way or seam to beat them all when it matters, which we have seen him to time and again the last few years. I have highlighed in pink which ones I view as uses in a pick 4 play. 

Race 11

1 Shoe Shine loses Fillion to Monte Christo, which isn't surprising as he has weak form anyway, Larocque is more his regular ride, and the way Fillion has been driving lately, not entirely a bad thing. He is still Fillion and has talent, and he will break out of the funk or slump. But, any horse he has driven over the past month or so, especially the suspect ones like this, you have to look at the trips he has given them. He has post 1 tonight, and thats still clearly a negative at Mohawk. Post 1 did not win a race on all 3 cards on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 0 for 31. He has missed more than 2 weeks now, even though its not hard to get in whenever you want. Last time he had the 8 hole, floated to the back, was following one who wasnt very live, but didnt sit on his lap either, but he did get trapped behind him briefly when he needed out as another came up beside and neither went by or went backwards. When angled out, he did have pace and was going forward, but the pace was picking up sharply. He came a back half of 55.4, which is solid. He has drawn 7 hole or outside in all of his last 4 starts, so, another poor post here, but when he did draw a bit better, he was in the mix but no threat to the winner. The horse is 0 for the last two years, and Saftic is a very low percentage driver at this stage. Very minor shot. I would leave him off the tickets. If he shows some decent pace tonight, and draws 4,5 or 6 next time and back in this class or the bottom, I might use him then.

2 Monte Cristo picks up Fillion upon his return to this track. I have made comments about Fillion's performance as of late in the Shoe Shine commentary. Monte Christo is a well known hanger at this track and even others. He has 4 wins out of his last 44 starts, and the years before don't look any different, possibly even worse. All of those wins came at the B tracks. Last time at Flamboro, he had the 9 hole (the trailer) got away 5th, pulled first up before the 2nd turn, had trouble even getting up to the leader, even though the 2nd quarter was slow, and then began to hang and fade as the pace picked up. He hung in there in the lane to only get beat 3 lengths, but didn't get a cheque. He was also bearing in all the way and noticably on the right line. The bigger oval will help him with that tonight. The longer stretch will hurt him as he is a poor finisher, which is why he does a bit better at the B tracks. Too many options in this race to think he is the one to pick up the pieces when a few of them likely fail. He could be a good one for the lowest non winner class at Grand River when that opens in two weeks if he gets no money tonight, which is very possible.

3 Im the Pied Piper  had to move up last time as he got 2nd money two back, just missing on the line to Koultons Rocket, who makes a good living winning that class. He has had two 10 holes in his last 3 starts and that has done him in. He can leave a little bit, so I would expect Henseley to attempt to do that here, but he is better coming from off the pace with one well timed move, which looks like all he has left at this stage in his career. When Burke had him, he was a top Open horse at tracks like The Meadows and Northfield, but he has been raced out and is clearly on the downside of his career. Most in this class usually are. Cullen moved him to his sister and brother in law 4 back because he couldn't make him go at all. They got him going, but last time, in addition to the 10 hole start, he wasn't even keeping up in soft fractions and Hensely was tattooing him all thru the last turn and into the lane, to no avail as he was not even gaining on the pack, even though they only came home in 29. All signs point to him being overbet tonight on the class drop and better post. I would leave him off the ticket and use that spot for something else. He looks like a 5 claimer now. Hamilton picks him 2nd, even though he made a pretty good case against taking him at all. Just sayin.

4 Ideal Jet went to Flamboro last time, drew the rail and had JJ, in with a very soft bunch in what looked to be an easy score. As many times happens when you train horses and you show up with that in play, something happens and you get nothing. He suffered broken equipment and was pulled up. I had that very thing happen to me at that track once (I forgot my hopples that day, borrowed a pair from a guy I know that was stabled there, didn't check them over and they broke in the race and my horse pulled up as well), then jogged the next week at Kawartha with that horse. That is how the game goes sometimes. No fault to the horse or trainer last time. It happens every now and then. In any event, on the positive side, he dropped a line and gets in with easier here. For this horse, one who looks like he is in contention and moving forward in the lane, only to hang in the last bit before the wire, that is a very big positive. The post is also good for him, as he can leave plenty when asked to, but needs a breather to finish. This post can achieve that. JJ is aboard again, and he has driven him enough to know what to do with him. If you look over his last 5 lines, ignoring the last one where he pulled up, he shows a very fast quarter in his last 2 quarters, mostly in the last one, but a 26.3 3rd quarter in the only one where he didn't have the fast last one. The class drop and the very soft nature of this field make him viable. He is a must use tonight.

5 Southwind Masimo was listed on the SC site for sale and Puddy bought him and raced him first time last start. Unfortunately, he drew the 10 hole and also moved up in class. He had zero shot, and was beat by many, including the sharp winner who has serious ability and doubled up against better on Saturday night.
In terms of how he performed, he did follow the gate okay and was leaving smooth, but when Trevor took hold of him, he threw in a step or two, and he had to hold him to his gait. (He also seemed to do that the start before when J Mac took a light hold of him behind the gate). He also ran in badly in the stretch at least once last time, but when not doing that, he was going forward at the end, like he always does. I would look for some equipment changes, possibly a tighter hopple and maybe some headgear adjustment. That was the first time Trevor drove him that I know of, and he will know him well enough to leave with all the variables in mind.
That was his 3rd bad post in a row, and tonight he gets the 5 hole, statistically one of the two best posts at this track. He also managed to get 2nd twice in a row from the 8 hole, both in this class or the one below, once making a gate break, the other time flying up from the backfield and pacing his own back half in 55.1 to nab 2nd when the winner was on a front end mission and long gone. He meets that horse again tonight (Sports Lightning) on the drop, but he is very hot and cold, and right now, ice cold. Masimo is only 3 for 37 over the last two years, and has been known to hang badly in the stretch when he raced in the States, even on the nights he looked live and in good form as he does now. That is something to consider. He has new connections now though, and that can change a horses attitude and racing style. He is in the mix, and one to use, but he is beatable enough and not reliable in my eyes. "His 2016/2017 boxscore isn’t terribly encouraging but make no mistake about it, he does know
how to win races; he’s 33-for-159 (20.7%) lifetime." That is a valid point Hamilton makes in the Journal. Or it would be if it was correct. Which it is not. He has 7 lifetime wins, which is right on the program page.
6 Chief Talkalot has all the right variables in his favor. He has post 6, which is the right post to have in a field like this, or any field at this track for that matter. He has a high percentage trainer in Robbie MacMillan, who I was stabled with for a couple of years. Robbie knows how to get one going, classify them to make money, and then move on to another when they are in need of that. He is hanging on to this one, and he has clearly improved in his care if you look at his lines before he got him, which are now off the page. J Mac has been aboard him in all his starts on the page, and now knows him. The horse doesn't always leave, but he can, as shown by his April 3rd line when he had the 9 hole at Woodbine and was 3 wide in a first quarter of 25.4 and yet still finished 3rd in 52.4 to a daylight winner who on his best day was an Open horse. He consistently paces miles in 52 or 53, which is just about right for this class. He isn't making a class move here, but clearly this race is easier than last time, as Spinfiniti and Shadow Place would both be heavy faves in with this bunch off their last races. In that last race, J Mac took him off the gate although the horse wanted to leave, and that was a wise move considering the wicked pace, got him 3rd over, but he just wasn't good enough, although he tried hard right to the wire and did keep going forward. An effort like that again, being more forwardly placed should be enough.  Under that race, he was chasing Jins Shark, a horse who has moved back up an dominated the Preferred. He was 2nd 3 back off a back end trip and clearly has good form. Hamilton doesnt even list him in his to 5, but to me, he is the one to beat. Not a single for sure, but he is one you would have to have. J Mac and Robbie Mac have a positive ROI together. That can't be ignored.

7 Who Doesnt has drawn post 7 and outside in his last 3 starts, and taken way back each time. I see no reason he doesn't do that again. To his credit last time, he did lay off 15 at the half and closed to get 2nd, in a back half that was only a minute flat. That was one level below this, which while a very minor difference, is something to a horse like this who doesn't win often at the big track. He has needed to go to Flamboro to get all 3 of his wins since he returned from his Alberta base with Cullen. He is a 38 time winner, but many of those came in Alberta. He just seems a shade short of winning form at this track. Next winter he is probably more viable for that consideration when they slow up about 2 or 3 seconds. I'm sure he will have a solid summer going over to Grand River and some of the other B tracks and beating up on those when he fits the conditions, as he did at Flamboro on April 16th. Not with these for me. I will leave him off the tickets and roll the dice.

8 Sports Lightning is one of those types you see in this class every now and then. On his best day, he could blast out and daylight them, and then outstagger them with the big cushion in his back pocket. Which is exactly what he did when Roy blasted him out, wanted a hole but the horse wouldn't rate, so he just drove on and kept going. Right after that, he returned to his no try ways and terrible finishes. He can be a bit of both of those types on any given night. Post 8 tonight, with quite a few inside him who will also want to blast does not favor him here. He made a bid for the lead last time on the last turn, but it was short lived and not even close to being dangerous. When that happens, he will stop like he hit a brick wall backed up with another brick wall to make sure there are no designs to do otherwise. He is dropping in class, and if Drury were to try and send him out on a mission, I doubt he completes that mission tonight, but he could take a few passengers into the ditch with him. I will roll the dice against him tonight based on too many negatives I see.

9 Surprise Hanover had Fillion listed, but obviously there was no way he was going to take him, so he picks up Roy. Not the worst trade that could have played out. This is his 3rd bad post in a row, and he seems to not leave a step when that happens. Roy is a smart kid. I doubt he is going to alter that on this horse, who is well known as one who wins very rarely, even from good posts. He did pace back half in 54 flat 2 races back, and if, and only if, there was some kind of crazy speed battle and he was in a live flow, with another contender pinned in while he got the jump on them, he is possible. Being that Roy seems to fall into those trips, he is a use if you want to go deep here. I'd certainly trade Im The Pied Piper's spot on the ticket for him if you are looking to make that call. He is a longshot, but not a "no shot".

10 Par Intended goes 2nd off the claim for Lee, and gets a lot of class relief, but he drew the short end of the post position stick. That is his 3rd bad post in a row, and he was also in with some very tough customers relative to these last time. He seems to take right back to last when he draws like this, and its hard to see him passing the entire field when he is likely to have a lot of road trouble with the hangers on the last turn pushing him very wide and losing both ground and momentum doing that. He is not impossible, but he is up against it.

Here is my overall synopsis of this race. Ideal Jet and Chief Talkalot are both likely to blast out, and one of those two should be cutting it, likely Chief Talkalot. Shoe Shine is hard to see being any factor, and should stay in most of the way, while Monte Christo will do the same and look to find a seam late to see what he can get. Im The Pied Piper is likely to be in the flow, possibly first up, depending on what Southwind Masimo does. I could see that one trying to make a brush to the top just after the quarter. Does he clear? Do they hang him? If they do, who is on his back? Who is on that ones back? I would think in that scenario, it is being set up for one of the two on the front, or one of either Surprise Hanover or Par Intended, both at a very big price.

Everything matters.

When I first started going to the races, the harness races, I had this crazy idea. It went like this.

I noticed that most of the horses that won on the first few nights I went had the fastest last quarter on the program page. When I say most that won, I mean most that won that I bet to win. I was locked onto that, and I made the leap that this was the most important angle. So, when I would get the program for the next card, I circled who had the fastest last quarter, and who had the slowest ones. Whoever had the fastest one, that is who I bet. And if they had the fastest overall mile time, I might bet that one too. 

As Dr Phil says. How's that workin for ya?

Well, as you can guess, it didn't work. It took me a year at least until I figured out there was more to a race than just the fastest horse, or the fastest closer. In the meantime, I lost races I would surely win today with what I know.

What is it I know? The fastest horse doesn't always win the race, there are many reasons it can lose and others can win. Its a factor to consider. Speed wins races. That only makes sense. But, fast cars only go fast if they aren't in a traffic jam, or, have a flat tire, or run out of gas while the slower car saved some gas for the entire journey. Again, that is just common sense. Speed wins races, it doesn't win every race.

Similarly, good jockeys win races. Many races. But, they don't win every race, and they don't always win when you think they should. Sometimes they don't have the best horse, other times they ride a poor race, and other times, any number of things can happen to get that horse beat.

Do jockeys matter? Of course they matter. They control the horse from the time they mount them in the walking ring to the time they pull them up after the race, and every moment in between. Every decision they make contributes to victory or defeat. To say otherwise indicates a lack of understanding of racing horses.

But you know what else indicates that? Saying they are the most important factor. They are not. You know why?

Because there is not just one important factor. There are several at any one time.

Trainers matter. Breeding matters. Class matters. Fitness matters. Trip and pace of the race matters. And most of all, speed matters.

No matter how good the jockey is, how sharp and skilled the trainer is, how much class relief the horse is getting, if the horse is not fast enough, or in some cases, not sound enough to use that speed to full advantage, the horse will not win.

There is a saying on backstretches. It goes something like this:

The jockey can't win the race with the horse, but he can lose it. In other words, he can get max performance out of the horse, but most jockeys that get to a level at any track aren't that much better than the other 7 or 8 guys they race against every race. In fact, they aren't that much better than the next 20 guys either. Sure, they are slightly better and can make a difference. But, even the top guys, a bad ride, a bad decision, a miscalculated rating of the horse, that can get them beat. Some would argue Stewart Elliot did that with Smarty Jones in the Belmont. I wouldn't. I think the horse just couldn't go that distance. But, could a higher level jockey have nursed him to that win? I suppose. We wont know that because it can't happen now.

At the end of the day, everything matters. All factors matter. Its a very poor bettor who locks onto just one factor and ignores all the rest, or most of the rest, or any of the rest that are relevant to the entirety of the race.

A race is a big puzzle. The one who puts the puzzle together correctly wins the money. The one who puts more puzzles together than the guy who happens to get one or two puzzles right wins more often. Anybody can get lucky and throw the pieces of the puzzle on the table and have them fall together by accident a few times. Its the guy who sorts them one by one, with no luck or chance that wins the most often. And when doing that, that person considers all the pieces and how they fit together. As well, many races are complex puzzles, and no one factor will solve them. But the more complex, the bigger return if you can figure it out. Anybody can figure out a 1-9 shot is going to win unless he falls down or breaks down. That is not a puzzle. And the jockey likely doesn't matter. Those are not the races we speak about in a blog like this.

There are many factors in complex races. If I put this piece with that one, what is left? If I start at this end of the puzzle and put a few different sections together separately, will that give me greater insight on the pieces that are left that are tricky to fit together?

If I solve just one part, is that enough to finish the puzzle? If I only consider the jockeys, do the horses and trainers and conditions even matter?

Well, do they?

Of course they do. Here is why.

If they didn't matter any simpleton could do it, and pick the winners. The price would be so low that the profit and value would eventually be negated. If it was that easy to only consider one factor, or say just the jockeys, any idiot could do that. If the highest percentage jockey wins the most races, then he will get bet to the highest degree and the price wont bring return over time when it doesn't work out that way. Put another way, if the jockey wins 30 percent, which is very high, that means he still loses 70% of the time. Or, 7 times out of 10, he is going to lose. That is 7 winners you can get if you figure out who is winning those races when that jockey isn't winning those races. Some will be won by other high percentage jockeys. A few will be won by other jockeys on the pecking order. Usually, there will be some kind of price value attached to that winner, as the public will latch on to the high percentage jockey, and in many cases, trainer, and also probably excellent form and overall speed of some horses they ride. That is because those types of horses do win many of those races. But not all of them. Or even a majority. It just seems that they do. They win more than the average horse, or jockey, or trainer, but not the majority.

If you are a 300 hitter in baseball, which is considered top notch, you are going to make an out 7 times out of 10. Fail, 7 out of 10 times.

Now, what it really boils down to is being consistent, but not being too rigid. If you truly believe that your system works and will bring you ROI, then play it that way. Prove it works. To yourself, and to others. If you are so rigid that you think only one thing matters, but you still make a profit of some sort, I would suggest you are not making as much as you would have if you had considered all the factors. If you are okay with that, then go with it.

Most successful bettors don't see it that way. They consider all the relevant factors, and they have a system. There are few that have the same exact system. We can learn from all the players who play the way they do. I study the losers, and I see what they do wrong. I listen to the winners, and see what they do consistently right. I have unique skills which I rely on and give me an edge, in addition to the basics I have an understanding of and others do as well. I am always looking to learn what others know, what they have figured out, and why it works. But most of all, I want proof. Statistical proof that it works that is significant to the standards we all learned in year one of University if you took that course. If you can show me that, you have my attention. If you make a strong case, back it up with results and sound logic, I am more than willing to give you the proper credit for what you do.

But, if you are just going to yap and sound like a yapper, with no facts, and no real system or ability to solve puzzles, you will be discounted as nothing more than what you are...which is....all talk and no results.

In a race, you have a horse, a trainer and a jockey. And then 8 to 10 others all with those same variables, and other variables that you might consider. They all matter. Everything matters. Figure out what matters most in that race, and then make your call. If you just consider one variable, you are very likely to lose over time. Just like I did when I only considered fastest overall final quarter speed. That was foolish. Don't be foolish.

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WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: March 16, 2017

As I go forward, any race I make picks in will only be done if I think I am beating the favorite. Will I beat them all? Of course not, and I do not expect to. But, I know the percentages. Favorites win about 40% at WEG, and less than even money favorites win about 55%. That leaves a lot of room to beat them, and as well, I can't just beat 60% of favorites and 45% of less than even money shots. I have to do better than what others can with those to derive a profit over time. That is what I attempt to do, and I will list on each blog, starting with this one, where I am at on that. 
If I think the favorite has a very legit shot to win, then I pass the race. If I think I can beat that favorite, but can't reasonably come up with value plays below him or her within the number of picks in that race I deem the right formula, I still pass the race. By my count, that leaves me somewhere between 5 and 6 races a night to make plays from. Some nights that might be 9 races, other nights it could be 2 races.

RACE 1

Alexas Hope looks solid in here. She was locked in last time and looked to be very live. These are soft, she will draw a fairly short price, and I wouldn't go against her. I wouldn't single her either, but its not easy to find one or two behind her to pick from. Pass on the race for me.

RACE 2 

7 Ohello Blue Chip showed flashes of speed at 2, and was aimed at some better prospects at times. She comes off the shelf here, and with Drury. I will take a shot with her on top, but in reality, I could see any of my top 3 as the one to take down American Sara, if that plays out as I suspect it could. She has missed a month, and that is troubling, but I will take my chances she has been trained in the interim.

5 Stonebridge Honey has gone 3 qualifiers now for Hudon, each one better than the one before. Hudon is old school, and that is the way you like to see it done. She is a filly prepped and ready to race. I generally don't like to play first time starters at this track unless they look like top stakes colts that tower over a field. I don't see many other places to land in this race if you are going against the obvious chalk, which I intend to do. She could easily use that gate speed and be sitting on American Sara's back turning for home, and that makes her very dangerous. Not my top call, but she is possible and I'd use her in the exotic horizontals.

6 Two Sides of Love showed a decent progression to get her first win, and was first or second 5 out of 6 at 2, twice however not getting it done at very short odds. That is not her fault though, as its a reflection of bettors who expected more of her at that stage than she was ready to give. Now, after a short rest, she is back off one qualifier at Flamboro. She might need one, but a 57.2 back half at Flamboro suggests she could just be ready to go off that effort. Another to use if you are going against the chalk.

2 American Sara broke her maiden in her 2nd start. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers have both come back to break their maidens, both fairly impressively. In that race, Fillion looked like he wanted to sit a pocket trip, but she was very grabby and he had to pull her and cut it. She also bore in badly coming out of the last turn, being completely inside one pylon and hitting another. In any event, she dug in and fought off the pocket sitter. She seems to have some future upside, but she has young horse holes at this stage. She gets another shot at this class, but missing 3 weeks plus is a red flag to me. She still probably brings a short price, and I will take my shot against her.

4 Roselily has 2 under her belt now, and looks to me to be a filly with a bright future. She travels well and is willing when asked to pace faster. Last time she took a tuck, stayed in, took a shuffle and had to keep edging up, checking mildly, then angling to go forward. Either her driver is not able to drive at race speed with the pros at this track, or he is just teaching her and being safe, but in either case, it doesn't matter. It adds up to poor value at this stage when she is not a bombs away type. I keep watching, and I might latch on to her at some point, if some of the variables change.

1 Double Down Jo qualified over 3 weeks ago,  but then came up sick for her career debut. In that qualifier, she stopped badly in the lane. Perhaps it was a sign she was getting sick, and that played out right after that. In any event, she did come home poorly and the one that beat her has not really impressed to this point. I will watch her once to see what she brings to the table. It could be 2 or 3 starts before we see what that is.

3 Northern Lauren won a couple of times at the B tracks, but at this track she has trouble going the last quarter the way the better ones do, even off easy trips. She barely raced until this year, and appears to have multiple issues that cost her at the big track when she needs max performance to achieve. I will pass on her.

RACE 3

7 Bustingattheseams went the mile you would expect last time, and one I expected to see. Leave a bit, get around, go forward at the end, take the time down and get experience. Back half in 59.1. Will she go forward? I have no idea. She could, and she will get some play. Shifting from post 1 to post 7 is a plus. I will add her to the mix of possible ones.

6 Travel Lightly stayed trotting last time and took his time down. Just another one of many who could step up...or blow up. Only one of them has to step up. The rest could blow up and you won't care. He shows consistent good back half speed in his last two. Post 2 has been horrendously bad for any horse to leave or win with the last 6 or 7 cards. In fact, its 1 for 73. This is a much better post. That is a consideration. That is good enough for me to add him among the other suspect ones.

2 Majestic Marvel raced with trotting hopples at 2, but made breaks anyway and was shut down. He qualified without them, but ran in the race and now has qualified again, with them back on. He shows flashes of fast quarters at times, and while he is extremely chancy, he is worth playing if you think the favorites in this one have enough issues to look behind them. I do, and this is one I would add with a shot if he pops into gear and figures it out. He could also easily be up in the air and distanced.

4 King of Magic has missed 5 weeks now and has a low percentage, infrequent WEG driver. He does have one thing in his favor: from a good post like this, he can leave fast and get the kind of trip that avoids the traffic and breakers that do many of these in. His performance overall is not good enough, and his finish is suspect. A couple of times, he has been near the money anyway in spite of that. He has also won a real race, and in pretty good time for Flamboro. He is another that is usable, but not reliable.

3 Forte drew the 8 hole last week and that cost him a bit. He did stay trotting this time and was in the mix. His last quarters are still consistently slow, and that is a concern. He might develop speed and steadiness as he goes, but getting that combo at the same time in the same race is Per's task. One he is up to I'm sure, but it's a process and that can take time. He is an Ontario bred, so I'm sure the goal is to have him sorted out when the Sire Stakes start, so he can earn against softer competition overall. At this stage, Per seems careful to not put him in a position to take a hard hold of him, and he might be one of those hot Angus Hall's you don't want getting any ideas that he can be the boss of you out there. I keep my eye on this one as he goes.

5 Dobee seems to be progressing. On the positive side of the ledger, she is finishing well and keeping her gait under control. Part of that is the way P Mac is driving her and managing her, and he is well known to be very good with young trotters, which is one reason why Bax goes to him with many of those. On the flip side, she needs to be floated away slow to keep her steady, and while she seems willing enough, she bears in sharply at times, even cranking her head, which is not a big deal if you are getting a price on her, but not something you want to accept if you get odds-on like last time, and a short enough price this time. The field was wafer thin last time, and although she passed those very easily she was no threat to the winner, not really gaining on him while the last quarter of the race was very slow. I like others for now. I will watch to see if her issues resolve. They seem to with Bax trainees and you can get the long price if you wait for that sweet spot.

8 Road Light at first glance, as I touched on yesterday in a blog, she appears to be a professional maiden in the works. However, last time she was mowed down by what appears a very legit green horse, who will be on to bigger and better things. It wasn't a bad effort, and she could once again get out on top and control things. I don't like her tonight, but she shows slight improvement, and I will keep my eyes and mind open on her. On the right night, with the right group and trip, she could be a value price play.

9 Blameitonthewhisky left out last time but was bearing in badly in the turn and blew up coming out of it. Post 9 tonight and there are some leavers inside of him. He appears to have some ability, but has not put it all together yet. When he leaves, he tries to go all he can go and stops like he did in the qualifier to get ready for another try. I will watch. There is something there, but the setup is not good tonight for him. Pass on him as an include.

1 Jayport Sport was tried early at 2, but was making breaks consistently and shut down. He has kept it together twice upon return, one in a qualifier where he had early interference but stayed to task, and then in a real race at Flamboro where he did again and bagged 2nd. He needs more speed now. I'm sure that will come, but post 1 for a green trotter who has issues with a driver who isn't a top guy would lead me to take a wait and see attitude.

10 Royal Intrigue is marginal to begin with, and draws another bad post, which she has shown not able to handle. I can't use her with all the strikes against her tonight.

RACE 4

8 Gillys Boy broke his maiden February 9th as a 13-1 longshot. He was on the move last time, and when I say on the move, he was flying, but made a wild speed break. It looks like he hit himself up front and almost went down. Fillion caught him and kept him going, but he was mostly in the road from there, and all over the track in the stretch. He appeared to bear in and hook wheels with the leader. In spite of all that, he still paced in 55. He comes right back on 10 days and hopefully, with some adjustment. I would keep my eye on the changes to see what Brethour tries. Shot in with this bunch if he can keep it together and use his speed to his advantage, not disadvantage. He is a big rangy type, and as Cams Card Sharks go, he reminds me a bit of Four Starrrz Shark, who had big ability as well but took time to come to it and be able to control it.

9 Lawrencetown Beach is a full brother to Melmerby Beach. If you recall that horse, the connections were very high on him as a colt, aiming him at the NA Cup and some other big dances. He did show that type of raw ability, but was prone to making breaks, as this sibling appears to be as well. I would think P Mac takes the careful, sensible approach tonight and keeps him pacing, only moving late on natural ability. Could that be enough to take this bunch? It looks like it could when you look them over, but I'd only add him to the exotics if you have extra room, and otherwise I'd roll the dice against it being tonight for him. He needs to be watched closely to try and time when he clicks in and delivers on his apparent potential.

6 Bettor Jin is a 3yo first time starter who comes in off one qualifier, where he did little but brush late. That is all he is required to do, and I'd be fairly certain there is lots more to work with. His half brother Jins Shark impressed me the first time I saw him at Mohawk, and their dam was a topnotch solid mare in her day. He came a back half in 57.2. I can use him and think he is very possible right out of the box. McNair sticks with Hermanus, and that is curious, but I still like the chances of this one.

3 Go Like a Pro has a license to have a shot. He drew the rail last time, and has 1's and 2's on almost all his lines. He knocked his time down to 55.4 last week, and while he didn't do much, he did that. Second off the shelf, better overall post, decent connections, suspect probable contenders, I can see where he is one to stick with on the chance he steps up and they step back.

2 Hermanus goes for his 3rd start back and McNair sticks to him when he appears to have had a viable option to go with. He has established he can pace a solid 55 mile, even slightly better the time before, but can he go forward and get near 54? I'm sure he can as he comes along, but he would need to tonight to probably win this race if the weather holds to what it looks like it will. I have enough options in this one that I will leave him off the exotics. Your call. If you think you have room, he is one to add. I'd certainly play him if my choice is Undrafted or him. I am leaving both off.

7 Undrafted was on top at the half last time, in soft overall speed, and turned for home with the lead. He had a first up horse all over the track, blocking traffic and hindering a live one who came right back this week and blitzed a similar group to this. All of that was not enough to get him to the wire. He was interfered with in the stretch, and that could be a reason to give him an excuse. J Mac has now given him two legit chances to win with very good steers and he has been outpaced by others. He could simply be developing, but I will go against him here and try others. He has to show me some grit and finish.

1 Mckinley can be terribly ugly gaited and even dangerous at times, but JJ got him around in the qualifier with a big, fast 3rd quarter move. Lets see how he stacks up for next time. Not tonight for me.

4 Secures Jetstream needed 3 practice runs to get back to the races. He doesn't show anywhere near the speed of most of these, and based on his breeding ( Jeremes Jet onto a The Panderosa dam) I am skeptical he is much stock. Lets see how that plays out. Adams has the gas, but you still need an engine to make a car go fast.

5 Southwind Savage will race for the 4th time in 14 days, and second time off very short rest. He didn't look sound at all parading on Monday, but raced okay. I like others and can't see him taking down a few of these. He will have to prove me wrong.

RACE 5

I will pass on these. Got to pick your spots and this one doesn't look like a good spot to try and get value. I do have my eye on Weslynn Dancer and  Zorgwijk Rocket, so I will be watching them closely.

RACE 6

Another race I will pass on. Mixed bag that can go many ways. Take your shot if you think you can find something. I don't see it.

RACE 7

7 Weatherly is an angle play for me tonight. Sure, he is the ML choice, at 3-1, and I'd hope to get close to that. 5-2 would be the lowest I'm willing to go, and even that is pushing it. I am of the opinion that the night he raced, post 1 and post 2 for any leaver was a big disadvantage, and few from those even tried it. Of the ones that did, he was one, and the energy he expended to leave, and then retake, cost him late, as he collapsed near the tote board. He has never been the grittiest type, but that was flat out a poor result and poor effort. I can give him a pass and give him a potentially valid excuse to bounce right back up from. He isn't meeting Cam Fella here. I won't take a penny less than 5-2 to find out though.

3 Counter Strike was shrewdly taken to Flamboro last time by Cullen, who took the 3k first money, put it in his pocket and comes back here to face the same bunch he was a "one of many" type before that. He beat the usual also ran types we see in this class here, being Dredyl Hanover and Blue Chip Sunshine, and whoever was behind them. These are tougher, but Cullen has showed me he can turn a mediocre form horse and get them going again within reasonable time. If my top choice bombs again, he is a viable option with his confidence restored. The winner of his race 2 back daylighted and bottomed out the field in crazy time, so the amount of lengths he got beat that night is deceptive. He did give up ticket money, but that was partly because he was chasing that one in vain. We often see those types come back better when they don't work so hard in the middle of a race. Like he did last time.

4 Hidden Potential is 1 for his last 42, and if I looked up his 2015 performance, I recall it wasn't any prettier. Lets be frank: he shows no grit, and any reason to give it up late, he will do that. Luckily for him, he is among friends here. These are so bad, I could make a case this is his night to have a shot if my top 2 both decide they don't feel like working for it tonight either when others come to them. J Mac seems to win with this kind every now and then. He is possible, but needs others to hand it to him. If you go back far enough, he has won this class at boxcar odds at least once, and possibly twice. Every dog has his day, and so does every rat.

5 Shoe Shine clearly was missing something last time on the move to Heard from Johnson. He was all done at the quarter and JJ eased up on him wisely. He came right back on 7 days and paced a decent 56 mile, behind an old class horse who qualifies great when he is forced to do that and a FFA bearcat from earlier in the winter. Another option if you don't like my top 2. I'd only be willing to go 3 deep here, so I'd use the 4 over him. His trainer is 0 for 24 this year and has never been high percentage. That is the tie breaker for me.

6 Koultons Rocket comes back to this track at the lower level he won at when last he won a race. He also draws the right post for the style he likes. He is also 4 for 50, or an 8% winner. I have to make choices here. I will go against him. He has competition for the front, and he isn't the type that works for it and wins many doing it. His 55 mile at Flamboro 2 back certainly stacks up here, so he isn't a toss if you want to go deep here.

1 Big Bang Boom for a while at 2, he looked like a decent prospect. He even dominated a few times, but he did show troubling signs, and when those surfaced, he was NFG. He never even won at 3 in 18 tries, and now he appears as an aged horse looking for a resurrection and spot where he can find a level and get his confidence back. He did pace in 52 in a Sire Stakes at KD, and that has to be respected. He isn't a slug, but he has to perform. I will watch tonight, and see if he gives me reason to back him going forward.

2 Sierra Madre is 2 for 42 the last two seasons, and shows that by hanging most nights in the lane. He hangs not because he doesn't try, but mostly, because he isn't the soundest thing and drifts out badly. He did close at Flamboro last time to bag 3rd, but, most of those are much softer than these, albeit these aren't world beaters either. He did come a very fast back half last week, and thus, he can make the bottom of the ticket picking up the bad trippers and non triers. I don't view him as a logical win candidate.

8 Southwind Razor has been with his current connections for as long as I can remember but now goes to Waxman off the claim and picks up Roy. I will stay away, as I suspect he will be wildly overbet on that angle and I'm not sure a class jump like this wont equalize that, even assuming the chemical potion he gets tonight will wake him up. If he was back in for 6500, and drew the rail at Flambingo, I'd probably take a shot.

9 Big John Houn is an Ohio purchase that has not worked out so far. He made consecutive breaks and had to requalify, which he did well. He will need a lot more speed here to take down Weatherly and a few others, and post 9 certainly dooms him to coming from behind, which is not something he has shown he can do at this track to this point. He does get a class drop, but he was outclassed before, so he is not dropping, he is searching.

RACE 8

Girl Drama is out. I will pass on the rest.

RACE 9

Terrible bunch to sort. Not for me. Cundalini finally draws a post that helps him not hurts him, if you are inclined to search for an angle here.

RACE 10

8 Queen Ideal according to Brealey, he thought she would need a start off the long layoff last time, and she was raced that way, closing late for a share. These are there to be taken and she has stakes experience and success to lean on, which most of these do not. She only has 1 lifetime win though, so, buyer beware. I could see her and use her here. One of a few who need the trip.

3 Itsallabouthebass has longshot upside potential. She has post 10 last time, post 2 the time before that as her current form off the shelf. She doesn't appear to be much stock, but if she can get away 4th to 6th, pick up decent flow cover and use the speed she showed last time for the back half, she is possible at a big price. Usable.

4 Tearful of Happy has the look of a beatable favorite, if she holds the ML assessment of that. For starters she has missed about 3 weeks, and she won by a nose last time. That was her 2nd win, the other being a maiden score. That means she is a nose away from being a 1 time winner in 14 starts. She is always around, but not the kind you can rely on at a short price. These types go down all the time. Last time, McNair tattooed her a couple of times to get off the wings, and was lucky to get the 2 hole, then came out and went back in, forcing another who was moving to back off and then come out later when she didn't want to. Deep in the lane, she was done, hopelessly locked in but the leader both caved and went right just in time to allow her to slip up the rail. A lot of luck went her way that night. I will bank on that evening up a bit tonight. She seems to need all of that to take these.

5 Greystone Ladyluck goes to Weller from Oliver, who claimed her from Belore, who had her probably since she first saw a harness. Its a potent angle, but I find with Weller it takes a start to figure these out, while he can do it faster with older more experienced types like 15 claimers. I will roll the dice against her and watch to see. I don't get any inside info otherwise, so I have to call it based on how he has performed in the past with this type.

9 Strike a Chord is the unknown here, on the trainer change to Boyd, new track, sparse racing as of late, and a tough post. Pompano is cheap speed, so her 54 mile there is meaningless. If I had a 3rd one to add, it would be her on the off chance she has more ability than she shows and Boyd turns her. Its a monster longshot type of angle.

7 Windsongmagnifique had nothing last time at Flamboro. I will give her a pass and suspect she couldn't get around, as she comes here. That's not a move you make unless you think that was the only reason she bombed out. She has had trouble lasting with these, so the win is hard to list, but she could make the bottom of the ticket.

6 On the Minute Mark is 1 for 27 life, and isn't getting it done with these. Trevor goes to Weller as you would expect. I will pass. She has to do a lot more to get my interest back.

1 Ok Jewel got a free spin with maidens last week and did well with it, coming late for 2nd, no match for the winner, and beating a kamikaze front ender and another who looked bad sitting a loose pocket the entire way. She meets tougher again, and doesn't look viable when she meets others who have done more than she has before. I could see her sneaking on the ticket if they battle and come back to her late.

2 Alliwannadoisplay is 2 for 41 life. Not good. Win number 2 came last time at Flamboro in a conditioned claimer. I don't see anywhere near the speed of many of the others in here. Can't back her on a lot of variables.

I admit it. I was lazy. And it cost me.

"I have sinned."

We have all seen that Jimmy Swaggart confession when he got caught with a New Orleans prostitute. I was never a big fan of his or any of the televangelists, but I thought it was interesting that he chose this way to try and worm his way out of trouble. Trouble only he caused for himself. Do I believe he was sincere in the way he repented? I'm not sure, and it doesn't matter either way for this blog. The fact that he copped to it, and could be sincere about it, is the reason I start there. It came to me that way when I was pondering this blog last night. 

Admitting you have an issue, or that there is a problem and moving away from denial is a key step in making progress, in anything. 

I have preached before that in any race you play, if you truly are a serious player, you must fully vet out and analyze any horse on current form and variables. That might only take 1 minute, it might take 10 minutes. But what you can't do is have a built in bias and discard them based solely on what you think you know about them from some past performance that isn't terribly relevant now.

Bias is a very tough thing to overcome in betting. The reason for that is that it is very easy to fall back on that type of playing. We do it in real life too. We think it simplifies life and how to deal with the barrage of daily facts and situations we encounter. I will give you some brief examples.

-He is on welfare, he is just lazy. Or does drugs, or lacks motivation like the rest of us do.

-She is pretty, and has a great job. She should have no problem finding a man.

-All Muslims are terrorists, even the ones not doing anything currently. They will if given the chance.

I could go all day, but I wont. This blog is about betting on horses. Safe to say those statements are way too general, uninformed, and mostly will be false in the vast majority of cases.

One of the reasons I do a very thorough blog when I do it is not to pick winners. That is important too, and its the goal, but the true benefit of what I do when I do those is to step back every couple of weeks and see what I got wrong, in many cases horribly wrong, and take a long look at that. I will do that here. I already know where the problem is, I just want to be specific about each example to make my overall point.

Clearly, my bias is hurting my ROI and will continue to do so until I correct that. For all I know, it has for as long as I have been betting. The easiest way for me to see the mistake is to list all the horses that won that I picked last or second last,  look at what I said about them and think about what I thought about them overall.

"The quick glance"

 

http://racingtopics.blogspot.ca/2017/02/weg-handicapping-and-betting-notes-and.html 

This was my first blog back after a short break. I did that because I am moving towards playing mostly T breds, and I have a lot to learn to play those at the level I like to play. I simply didn't have time to do a blog up for WEG harness, do the research of the T breds, and live my life otherwise as I wish to. But, I also developed a few new playing strategies, and I wanted to test them out with real money and handicapping on a product where I already know plenty enough to do well if I do the work. So, I took a lot of time and did this blog up. I did my homework, and I got the first 3 winners out of 4 races right, two of which paid very well (Pop Goes The Weasel in the 1st ($11.00) and Casimir Overdrive in the 4th ($6.90 ). Finish Line in the 2nd was a pretty easy play for me, but he paid only around even money. I expected higher, but the smarter bettors were on to him and bet him down.)

Anyway, 4 races, 3 right, and they were very accurate comments if you watch the races, the replays are available on You Tube under WEG replays. I gave the other winner, Resistance Futile a good shot, he was viable and was a use in the pick 5 if I had played that. Then we arrive at Race 5, and here is where I made a mistake.

I liked the favorite, Brilliant Strike N, and so did everyone else. I did watch his previous race replay, and I was confident that he was ready to go, and only needed to show up. However, I did list reasons he might be suspect, based on things I know about his sire and the nature of overseas horses coming to this side of the world and dealing with weather and class they never have before. That played out, and he bombed out. That I am okay with. I weighed all that and made my call. Some of those will bomb. But, what I'm not okay with is how I viewed J Eagle Feather.

 

 

My comment on that horse was based on two things. I had remembered that two races back, he was a heavy favorite but didn't look good in the race, hanging badly and bearing in terrible most of the way. That race was a class below this. In his next start, a race I never watched, he dropped a level from that and was only 4th. At first glance, a quick glance, he looked outclassed and my bias memory was now that he wasn't good enough and had physical issues. But that was one race, and one race does not a horse make, good or bad. In fact, when you look at his last race, and the last race that Brilliant Strike N went, on the same night, J Eagle Feather paced a faster back half than Brilliant Strike N. In terms of effort, he raced harder and performed as well or better. I am still of the opinion Brilliant Strike is the far superior horse and will prove that out, and in fact his next start he finished 2nd and raced up to the potential I thought he would actualize this night. But, on this night, J Eagle Feather was not an automatic toss, as I listed him. It was a lazy, quick glance mistake. Lesson learned. 

 

J Eagle Feather finished 2nd, and almost won. The payoffs on him were very large, as listed below. Brilliant Strike was a well beaten 7th, never involved in the race and hanging badly in the stretch. I was on the wrong horse, because I didn't handicap the race properly.

Quick glance handicapping is what losing bettors do because they don't have the time, or don't care to use it even if they do have it.

"I have a read on this horse, No need to look at current form"

 

http://racingtopics.blogspot.ca/2017/03/weg-handicapping-and-betting-notes-and.html 

I did well on the next card and then for the most part, I did very well on this card, getting many right and turning a profit because I was very thorough, except for one mistake. Again, I focus on the mistake. I am already doing the other stuff well, I can just keep doing that. The mistakes are where I have to improve. This is a mistake I have made for years, and it costs me weekly. 

 

I had a clear bias here. I used the word "appears" which indicates I didn't even look Andovers Choice over. That is correct. I did not. I made a comment about him not being good enough and likely to be shipped to a lesser track and circuit by spring. That has been my view of that horses ability since he broke his maiden. He made me pay on this night for that comment. 

First off, he is a young trotter. They can turn on a dime. You have to look at them currently to make any call. That is a huge mistake to make. Either you pass on playing any race they are in, or you do the work that will pay off if you do it. Its very similar to the Maiden Special Weight, Maiden Claiming variables in T breds. It's not like playing older, established claimers. In his case, he was making breaks in stride, and when he didn't, which he didn't in his previous line, he performed up to what was needed in this race. In fact, he did exactly that on the bottom line on his page, when he got exactly the trip he got on this night, and won, as he did then too.  Secondly, he has the top trainer at this track for many years, and the best percentage post by far at the track, one he didn't have on any of the lines on the page. Thirdly, he has the top driver currently at this track, and it was his first time driving him. Those are ALL reasons to consider this horse. To top it off, it was a very weak field, he had shown the speed needed before, even on the page, and his qualifier wasn't bad. He had improved a bit. He was still very chancy, but in no way should I have viewed him as an easy toss. I did. He won easy, and beat me. 

 

You should get beat when you make as many mistakes as I made here. It's hopefully the way you learn that the game isn't as tough as you think if you do what you know how to do well. If you don't, you will lose, and should lose. Others are doing the work. Hard work should be rewarded. Its the foundation of how we view our society.

"If a horse beats you, its likely your fault, not his or hers. Don't hold that against them."

 

http://racingtopics.blogspot.ca/2017/03/weg-handicapping-and-betting-notes-and_3.html 

The next card was the next night. I decided part of the issue was the amount of time I had, and to do 10 races the way I like to do it was not reasonable or necessary. So, I narrowed it down to 4 or 5 where I was positive I could beat the favorite (which is how I play if you know anything about how I play) and get value that way. I found 4 races where I thought there were bad overbet favorites and I had viable options to beat them with. I listed all of those races with how I was going to play them. I had the outright winner in 2 of those 4, which is very good handicapping, and both paid well.

Donna Party paid $12.80 and Wrangler Magic paid $19.30. In another race, I was confident I was beating the two I thought would take most of the money, I Wish You Well and On The Minute Mark, and both of those missed the ticket. I had the top 3 finishers as my top 3, but the favorite turned out to be Evangelin Seelster, so, the bettors got this one right when she won. My top 2 were both 11-1 longshots who finished 2nd and 3rd. I didn't actually bet the race, as I realized I had read the odds on the race wrong, and the favorite won, so its not a race I probably should have played. My friend Garnet Barnsdale did. He read the race as I did, had the top 3 in a triactor and cashed a big ticket. I'm not really a triactor player, so that isn't something I would play. In any event, I was thorough in this race, and I got the race right. The 4th race I listed this night is probably the most important lesson of all the ones in this blog, as its the one mistake most of us make the most. I don't know any handicapper who doesn't make this mistake. It gets back to the real world examples I listed at the start of the blog.

"When Barockey wins, I lose"

I have a friend who say that all the time. In fact, the same guy who cashed the triactor. I don't say it, but I could, because I bet the races that way when she is in them. Why is that?

Well, for a time, Barockey was a very nice mare. She was even a tough Preferred level mare about 3 or 4 years ago. Shortly after she lost that form, she plummeted down the class ranks, but in spite of that, she would continually lose at odds on or lower, many times with very easy trips. She just appeared to be no good any more. And for a while, she was no good. But then, she got a longer layoff, and somehow, she returned to be a decent class moving mare who won her share. Sure, at times, she would still blow big leads, or fail off pocket trips she should win off of. But, she did win her share. For me, and others, we already have a mindset on this mare. She will lose when you think she should win, so, never play her.

In the race earlier in the blog where I hit Pop Goes The Weasel, Barockey was the 2nd favorite. She was coming off a win and moving up in class. I didn't like the favorite either in that race, for the reasons I stated, and it played out exactly as I said it would. Barockey stopped badly, as she is prone to do. 

But you know what else she is prone to do? Come right back and race better the next time. That is her history if you look up her past performance. She is just one of those that can be very bad for a race, or month, but turn it right back around for no reason that any of us can figure.

The handicapping angle we miss on her is that she is consistently inconsistent. That will bring big odds, and she delivers on those odds. As she did on this night. I tossed her, because she had bad current form. That was a mistake. I tossed her because I have played her in the past and lost bets on her. I played her, however, when she appeared to have good form, and then went bad. She performs on the bad form--race good angle. Some do that. It's not for me to figure out why, if that can even be figured out. Its for me to figure out she is that type of horse, and play her if the odds are right. My comment on this night reflects I had already decided she had bad form and was not going to win, no matter what. 

Here is the reality of Barockey. She has made 370k lifetime, has a record of 1:50.2 and 35 wins. She is a very talented and fast horse who knows how to win races. She just doesn't care to do it when we think she will. That is our problem, not hers. Unless we make it our problem, which I have.

Losing a bad bet on a horse once, or even twice, isn't the horses fault. It's your fault, and if you hold a bias against that horse because of it, you will lose more bets because you didn't figure out the reason you lost the first time.

On this card, I got almost everything right and made a very nice profit. However, I should have made more. Being happy you did okay when you could have done better is what losers justify as luck or the way it goes. I don't. I want to be the best I can, and make adjustments when I see they are there to be made. The fastest car in the world will not be as fast as it was made to be if the timing is off and needs to be adjusted.

"As Britney would say, Oops, I did it again."

 

 

 http://racingtopics.blogspot.ca/2017/03/weg-handicapping-and-betting-notes-and_4.html

No need to go into much detail here, except that I view Paparazzi Hanover in the same way I view Barockey, and also with a dose of Andovers Choice. So, I tossed him, and he beat me. Its probably the point where this blog started to develop in my head. A repetitive mistake I could see 3 nights in a row.

I could also note that J Eagle Feather and Paparazzi Hanover have the same trainer/driver and maybe I need to get a better read on that guy, which I thought I had, but I clearly do not. 

 

"The worst kind of mistake to stomach, You are right, but you still get it wrong."

 

http://racingtopics.blogspot.ca/2017/03/weg-handicapping-and-betting-notes-and_9.html 

As Britney would say, "Hit me baby, one more time."

 

 I got this race right. I had a bad favorite tabbed and she was very beatable. I had a live contender, at 35-1 in Total Knockout, who I even noted is the Barockey type, but not nearly as talented. I had her on top. She raced pretty good, was right there, but was short at the end when it mattered. 

 

 

You know who wasn't short? Phoenician Gal, who is a similar type, and also another of Travis Cullen's who beat me on this night. When somebody beats you enough times, you stop saying hit me baby one more time, and start thinking about how not to get hit. Cullen has convinced me. Tossing him on an inconsistent horse is a stupid thing to do. Whatever the issue is, he finds a way to fix it eventually. I don't have to know when that night is going to be, I just have to make sure I have him on that night. The two track hosts that night even touted how she was wildly underbet, had a legit shot, and finally went off and won at 16-1. I had the race figured right, which was a longshot was coming, but didn't cover all the ones that could be that longshot. It's the worst beat to take when you play the way I do. 

 

If you are certain the favorite is beatable, you don't short out any longshot that has a legit shot in your mind to beat that favorite. I had tabbed Three Pink Bows as a no chance type. I didn't like Donna Party back at shorter odds this week. Other than that, and the favorite, Case Dismissed, I needed to use the other 4. I didn't. I lost. Lesson learned. 

 

"Midnight Blue. One more time for all the old times"

 http://racingtopics.blogspot.ca/2017/03/weg-handicapping-and-betting-notes-and_13.html

 

When people you have respect for, like my friend Garnet and track handicapper Chad Rozema pick a horse on top, and you are tossing it, you should take a second look at why you tossed and they tabbed. I didn't. I stuck to my stubborn guns, and I got shot by the bullet I should have seen coming. It didn't feel good around midnight, when the card was over, and I realized my bias handicapping was really a serious issue.

 

Odds On Amethyst is a combo of just about every mistake I described above. Like J Eagle Feather, he has a very good last race, but I ignored it. I figured he was outclassed and he raced poorly the times before I had actually watched him. He is inconsistent, and a trotter, so, he was likely to blow up either way, and I could toss him based on that. He has done it so many times as it was. The Andover's Choice angle that bit me. Like Barockey, he goes very hot and cold, and generally is bad as a favorite but turns it around when the odds float up. His inconsistency is a plus, not a negative, from a betting perspective. His trainer. Pat Hudon, is someone I know, and I know he is a hard worker and very skilled horseman. He will keep working at it to figure out this horse and make him perform, to the talent the horse clearly has. I know all that, but I still tossed the horse. I figured this race for a price horse, but I didn't look over carefully every possible price horse. 

 

 

At the end of the day, the common theme of this blog is that I was lazy, and used a bias that isn't valid to justify not doing the work I know I should and have to.

Strictly a bias issue.

Should and would I have gotten all of these horses if I had done more work? No. But, I wouldn't have gotten beat by all of them in less than two weeks. One mistake, or beat I can take. A second one I can understand. Racing and race horses are not an exact science. But when a clear pattern emerges, and you can see why you are not performing, you cannot ignore that.

You can have tons of years of experience like I do. You can have a specialized skill set that I have gathered over those years. You can have valid knowledge and really understand the game. But, you can never beat a bad bias mindset and think you don't have to work for it. You cannot. You will lose if you insist on doing that. It cost me, as it should have.