WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 24, 2016

RACE 1

This is the type of race you hate to take the favorite, as they are likely to find a way to lose. I`d go 4 deep with my top 4 and that should get you to race 2.
 

4 Toy Cop Is obviously hard to back based on his record and that he continues to get outpaced in the lane. However, this field is so weak, if ever there was a spot where he could get to the top, and either sit in or cut it himself and save a bit instead of trying to bottom them out, this is it. He has a shot with these, only because they are that much worse than him. He took them a long way last time before giving it up late.

2 Hughgetthecredit left out and tried it first up when he was sitting 3rd at the half, he never cleared the leader and missed the ticket. This could be a good spot for him...if....he gets the pocket, accepts it, and doesn't budge until at least mid stretch. He has limited brush for this track, and has to save it to the last second. Shot.
 

Badstormanyport is the classic Somebeachsomewhere. He has that big rangy gait that the better ones do. It isn`t always pretty, much like Apprentice Hanover and Captaintreacherous had. But, they generate speed. Because of that, he was staked up big time at 2 and then raced hard, going fast but not making money. He was moved when he flopped, and Johnson tried to get immediate return last winter. The horse simply was spent and sore, and no matter how he tried, he couldn`t get him to go. He has had various chances to get back to the races, but shows up a month before Christmas with 6 qualifiers and this, his first race for a purse since January. Phil got him around fine in the qualifier, sitting in and following well, tipping out on the turn and storming home, under no urging in an excellent time that should handle these. I will have to see him parade though. As we saw Saturday night, a qualifier offers the chance to get away with stuff you cant in a race, when the chance of getting tested in the qualifier is almost zero. He has a history of making breaks. I want to see what he looks like. Obvious contender.

9 Mr Match on Beach  has strange variables. He didn`t race until October of his 3yo year, and yet, while he did okay in two maiden races, he was tossed into the deep end with his legs tied together attempting the Autumn Series against proven winners of 2 or more. Tonight he gets the 9 hole and a shift to Moreau with the rest of his stablemates. They have done well and most have won. I can see this one being better, on the class drop and trainer change, but getting beat tonight. Obvious contender, but I like others.

1 Southwind Savage would probably love it if they wrote a 7500 maiden claimer at this track. However, I bet his connections would not enter him in that. He is very happy to be 2nd or 3rd when he can and continue to build the bank roll. As soon as he wins, he will have nowhere to go. A poorer mans Century Churchill. Pass on the win front for me. He has had enough chances. Maybe Lasix helps him. I dont see it. Casie knows about lasix, and so does Copley. Neither of them bothered and they had him more than long enough to see if he was a bleeder.

8 Eas Ideal was slow away and handled carefully by JJ on the turns last time, trying to keep him pacing. He did, but it wasn`t pretty. He does close well if you can keep him together.  A bit like East End the other night. Weller can make them go, but one like this, its hard to win races when you have to hold them together and spot them probably 8 turning for home. He will take some money again tonight. I will pass and go elsewhere. I dont like what I see. He has never won a race at a racetrack. There is a reason for that.

5 Badlands Terror raced Monday night, so he comes back on 2 days rest. He had the 7 hole, and thus, left for position, then pulled first up, grinding his way near the lead, but never getting level with that one, and backing away before they came out of the last turn. He shows two wins in a row before that from the rail, so, he does use the advantage he gets at London well, but cant overcome the disadvantage that the 7 hole gave him. He gets back in with maidens to try this circuit. That is probably why he is entered here. He still looks up against it against a few who have more speed than him. Pass.

6 Sippen Whisky qualified one race earlier than the 3, but went 4 seconds slower. He goes back to Matheson here, and he is certainly a good horseman, but this horse looks to be too slow for this circuit. Pass and watch for tonight. I will see if he can keep up when the pace picks up on the last turn.

7 Chummy Park is a nickel bred type who has yet to win a race in spite of spending the entire year at Trois Rivieres and Rideau. Last time, he left well, had an easy pocket, but began to back away badly after the half when the pace picked up, and never got back in it. I cant see how he keeps up at this track.

RACE 2

1 Stormont Dundas didnt race at 2, but has made the ticket 9 of 16 times this year. He is decent gaited, can leave and will try to the wire, but is short when it matters, a sign he is his mothers son than his fathers protege. He took them a long way last time and got passed by the live pocket sitter. Post 1 for a young trotter is death most nights at Woodbine, but there are exceptions to every rule. He leaves enough to negate what some of the outside ones might do, and can accelerate into the turn and maintain position. I could see that getting him the 2 hole trip. That gives him a shot to graduate tonight.

5 Golden Man has done well at Flamboro, but he is also very headstrong and aggressive, his fathers trait, and Obrien tried to teach him last time he was here. The horse fought him and actually did a break dance leaving but kept it together and trotted the entire mile. He is a prospect as he learns, and I wouldn`t toss him tonight. Longshot chance and I`d use him in the pick 5. These types get better as they learn what they are out there to do. Right now he thinks that is to go as far and as fast as he can. If and when  he learns that his job is to get to the wire first and not the quarter pole first, he probably has enough speed to be competitive at this track.

6 Igocrazy Without U is 0 for 22 lifetime. She is searching for a place to try and change that. She wanted to go out and challenge last time, but Byron insisted she stay in and save something. Which is what she did, angled on the last turn, and trotted home well, just missing 3rd. I wouldn`t toss her, and she is a longshot chance type in a race where one of those can be viable.

8 Silky Flashy Nfast is 0 for 17 coming off a layoff. She almost broke her maiden in the summer, trotting some fast miles and picking up 2nd money in a Grassroots. She is something you dont see often in this class.....a maiden with 92k made. She will have to be seen, and I will wait on her one time and go to others. I`d think she wins in the next month and then resides at nw2 until the spring. Based on her breeding and who owns her, I could see her out to get a decent record and then bred before next summer. No need to rush her in this spot on a night when the miles are likely to be slow.

9 Andovers Choice jumped it off in the first turn last time while going along just fine. He is 0 for 24 and another who moves to Moreau, but draws badly. Test drive for this one tonight and I will watch for a future play. Note, he was an early scratch.

7 Core Fusion was at least on the gate last week and left okay. He didn`t take full advantage of his better post, and burned the chalk players. He was gapping again on the last turn and hung in the lane, which is becoming his MO. I will pass on him. He is starting to look like he might have the type of record Stormont Dundas has.

10 Vasco Bi 2yo with 2 starts and 2 breaks, and also shows fast quarters. Post 10 and Per. Watch for a later play, but not tonight for me.

2 Mister Blues is a first time starter. He was fairly impressive in his qualifier. Nose right on the gate, left out well, had the lead, trotted the turn solid and didn`t want to give up the lead when challenged. He didn`t have any resources to fight off the ones that passed him as the pace picked up big time coming home, but he didn`t quit either, lopping 4 seconds off his previous first qualifier. However, he was wonky in the lane when asked for that speed. He can go either way. I will watch him this time. Sometimes, especially when they take a long time to make the races, the more they race, the lamer and sorer they get. His mother raced and bagged almost 10k, but never won a race. That indicates she didn`t last.

3 Road Light is a first time starter off one qualifier two weeks ago. Mario got him around then, but he sticks with his brothers horse. I have to see this one, but I will pass on him this time out. He lacks the experience and overall speed he will face tonight.

4 Jagersro is 0 for 28 lifetime. She drops out of the Autumn, but she was miles over her head in that anyway. I will go to others. If she has the night of her life and beats me, so be it.

RACE 3

6 Entranced has 3 post 1`s and 2 post 10`s on the page. That gives him a license to have hidden form. Post 1 last time got him in a position to end up first up, which he did, challenging Rockin With Dewey off a soft half when Mario put the whip over her tail and left this one in a bad spot. He didn`t quit badly and gets a better post with Trevor back on. His trainer seems to be able to keep them going and turn ones like this around from time to time. He gets another try at this level, a level that works well for him. Top call.

1 Win the Day  goes to Boyd, as Reid has gone south for the winter. This one is prone to make breaks, as many of his sires are, but has big talent when he keeps it together, also something of a pattern with his sires foals. He won in 54.2 last year, but has not gotten his picture taken this year. J Mac sticks with him, and he got him around clean and manageable last time, leaving out from the outside, following well and behaving even when they got jammed up to the half. He was behind a stopper who backed into him but shook loose and was in a blanket photo for 3rd. That was a solid effort and he is a viable, but erratic contender at a price in this tilt.

4 Amityville Lindy made a break at the gate last week, and that was that. He did trot a big back half, which would handle most of these, and gets to drop in class, which favors him if he can keep it together. Post parade will be important with this one. I list him 3rd.

2 Five Below  is one that Adams junk wont work on, as he has issues that gas wont fix. He ran twice but now has one qualifier under his belt with Moreau. He is 1 for 33 on the year, and in the qualifier, Fillion floated him out clean, kept him very wide into the first turn, which he needed as he was locked on the right line and bearing in horrible, which he did the entire way, but cut it and stayed on well to be 2nd to one that outclassed him as the pace picked up. He will take big money on the trainer change, and I will go against him. I`m sure Moreau knows what needs to be done, but whether that can work, the jury is out.

3 Steppin Out went to the back and went around last time. She was on a big time roll in the summer, but tailed right back off. Tonight, from this post, if she is right, she will be sent right out for the lead. That gives her a shot. She closed with the pack last time but couldn`t get by Scary Good. That gives me the idea to go elsewhere. She is scratched.

7 Class Me Nice drew the 10 hole, and that gets him a pass for last time. He has had a lot of chances at various levels and posts, and does not win .

9 Muscles All Over gets the 9 hole and draws a new face on the scene, a Maritime driver who is going to try his luck in this province. He has showed talent in the past, but also has a suspect gait. He ships in from Flamboro. I will watch him once on the chance he brings him back next time to this track. He is up against it tonight.

5 Scary Good  total pass on him at this track. Even if he did trot entire miles, which he isnt doing anymore.

8 Fashion Goddess is 3 for 59 the last two years, has been off sick the entire month and was racing poorly before that. She draws the 8 hole tonight. Pass.

RACE 4

One of the things I like to look for in maiden races is progression. And of course, the flipside of that...regression. I think we all look for progression when we play these races. We are taught to do that. Sometimes its very obvious, as with Two Sides of Love. Other times, its hard to see and figure, with a Tisdall Hanover. And then you have Fade Away, who shows intermittent signs of progression lined with a side order of growing pains. That is what is in play here. Then you have others who have just flat out failed. The bottom half of this field. And my 4th and 5th picks, who appeared to be prospects but have lost their way. They can bite you, but we have to make choices. Interesting race to play because most of that is in play here.

3 Tisdall Hanover finally draws better and is the one I will go to. She has gradually taken her time down and shows small signs of talent to be right up with this bunch. I expect Trevor to blast her and try and work out a 2 hole trip. Her mother was a fantastic mare and she has produced many solid racehorses, most of who were only ordinary when they started out. For the right price, I will take my chances on this one. She is 12-1 ML. I`d want in that range, give or take. I think I can get it.

5 Two Sides of Love  was a first time starter last time, and made a nice post parade appearance. She did everything right. Went to the gate fine, followed it out like a pro, tucked willingly and followed cover, which was poor but advancing to a point, then tipped off that one to finish 2nd best to a wrapped up winner who had showed decent talent and fast miles already. If not for that one, she wouldn`t be a maiden as of tonight. She is hard to go against, and will likely be 6-5 or even 4-5 if they jump on her. I can see where she can go down, but she looks tough. I call her 2nd in the upset, but she will take some beating.

7 Fade Away comes in off two breaks at Flamboro, and a qualifier where she had mostly B track mediocre ones behind her. Because she is one of Nixon`s I have to take notice and give her some respect. I like others and will take a watch and see attitude tonight. She isn`t impossible on the move to the bigger track and the experience she has gained. Shot. Long shot.

1 Sunset Filly keeps the same ownership group but goes back to her original trainer, as she is not performing. She is prone to make breaks, and did so last time all on her own just after the gate pulled away. She gets back in with maidens here, but she is very chancy anyway. The field behind her in her maiden win is littered with ofer horses or young ones who had no racing at all. These arent much better, but there are some prospects. I will play to beat her, but list her 4th with a shot if she behaves.

4 Warrawee Star is the first foal of her dam, who won 725k and took a record of 1:50 in her life, winning 30 times. She is by Somebeachsomewhere while her dam is by Astreos. To me, she appears to be more Astreos than like her father, and I mean that she has one speed and doesn`t try incredibly hard. In her qualifier, she floated out, went evenly but did little. Her dam wasn`t much at 2 either, so maybe this one will come on late. Carl Jamieson moved her, as he was aiming for her to be a top 2yo, and while she paced in 54 in early summer, that was just tagging along. She only has 4k made, has moved to Johnson after a blow up race at Flamboro when she should have jogged. I like others better, but will watch to see how she stacks up for later in the winter. JJ stays on, so that is a plus. He knows her.

2 Dorabella no thanks. She has been discussed before.

6 Columnist aims to run her winless streak to 30. Don`t let me get in her way. She couldn`t even pass hangers last time. Pass.

8 Ponder the Dream shows nothing to suggest she ever wins at this track in her life.

9 Seven Angels cant see any scenario that gets this one on the ticket.

RACE 5

5 Sutton Seelster if my memory is correct, this one was kept eligible to the NA Cup. I never got that, but it says a bit about the ability they thought he had. Now the fall comes and reality has set in. Reminds me a bit of Surprise Hanover, who is another who was aimed at the NA Cup, raced in the elim at 200-1 and was dull for a long time until he got it together near the end of his 3yo year and found a level. For Sutton Seelster, that level appeared to be this type of claimer, only at London, where he daylighted a similar bunch to this. For that, he got a trip to try the Autumn for new trainer Bourgeois, and a thrashing by those types, who he cant go with. He is back where he belongs, on the right portion of the gate, and can leave and sit. Which all adds up to a big shot for him tonight. Top call from me. I`d need 6-1. I think that is reasonable. I don`t expect 10-1, which is the ML but I think is high.

8 Imsporty is one that Zeron has learned not to send because he will spit the bit if you use him hard early. So, he takes him way back and tries to come late. Last time that backfired because he was in behind two different incidents where there was crashing and banging going on. To his credit he navigated to get 3rd. He has a shot if the logical ones bomb out, which those types are prone to do in this class. He has consistent form if you race him right.

6 The Avenger  got away last last time, was in the flow, which went forward, but he didn`t. He will pop one of these days, as he did 5 down the page. I can list him 3rd with the minorest of shots based on that idea. Robinson always has to be respected as a guy who can find something on a rat like this. So far, he races like he has inherited his grandsire`s lack of desire to try.

10 Mr Mach Jimmy paced a big mile first up in his first start for Moreau. As expected. He was bearing in badly going to the gate, but Fillion worked with it and got him around. He draws the 10 hole here and he has shown in the past he isn`t so interested if he starts badly. We saw with Donna Party that Moreau and Fillion or not, that is death to this type of mediocre proposition. Pass.

2 New Standard is one I went to last week for the price. He had live 3rd over cover but couldn`t go with those top two. He has one lifetime win and no matter what style is tried, he doesn`t get it done. I`ve had enough of him. He has shown me he is just a rat.

3 P H Blackjack drops out of conditions and looks for a spot to compete. He is viable if the softer competition is to his liking. I`m on the fence with him. He shows signs that maybe he is just a B track type. Your call. I cant read him with him being all over the map with how he has been raced.

1 Windsun Falls  left out well last time and stayed in the entire way. He was awful again in the last turn and coming out of it. I cant back him as is. If he were to ever straighten up, he has some go. Others look a lot better than him here.

9 Just a Thought followed very live cover last time and paced right with him to the wire. He wasn`t so interested when he drew bad two back, and I will go against him here with that likely poor start, and more difficult trip. He has good form and might be viable next week if he holds that. He isn`t the most interested racehorse in doing his job, but Joe Hudon reminds him that is what his lot in life is and he is learning that he cant avoid it.

4 Lyons Delight doesn`t show me anything to suggest he is on the super. He did nothing again last time and couldn`t even get up for a cheque.

7 Mister Pibb is a martime bred who has come west looking for some purse money and to find a level. That level appears to be something at Flamboro or London that isn`t this bunch. He has been well whipped so far.

RACE 6

Very tough race to play. The type of race where you take a minimum of 5 in the pick 4 and hope you get the longest shot of that bunch. Sometimes you do, sometimes you dont. It should even out if you get the other races right over time, and the goal is to get to race 7. I would think my top 4 does that here. but I could see using the 10 horse here if you fear that one.

1 Covert Operative  missed a month prior to his last. Per put him mid pack, followed along loosely, and moved when he needed to be 3rd, placed 2nd, no threat to the daylight wrapped up winner, but going forward. He comes right back in one week, gets the rail, and picks up Randy if he shows up. If he doesn`t, CC doesn`t have a drive, so he will get a driver who knows how to handle him and has the ability to make a difference. Top call, but the rail start concerns me with one like him.

5 Second Sister has stepped up big time with lasix. No doubt about that. If she can get Rockin With Dewey`s pocket and ride that to the tote board, she isn`t impossible to pop late and get it done. Another of many who have a shot based on trip and current sharpness on any given night.

6 Rockin With Dewey wired weaker last time, but certainly is good enough with these if she is herself. I will call her to get picked up tonight. But she is very viable underneath for the ticket positions.

3 Lexus Rocky comes off two 10 holes, and closed well enough last time to suggest his form is good. He won with similar 3 back, and if he parades well, he is viable as one of many. That is a big if. His soundness is very variable week to week. He must be observed closely.

10 Burnin Money drops for tonight, but post 10 is enough for me to leave him off. He finds ways to lose anyway, and this gives him the excuse he will need for next time when he draws better and gets bet off that angle. I will watch this time, to see if I want to go against him next time.

7 Totally Ripped was a solid 2nd last time to a front end winner when the heavy chalk bombed out. However, he is 1 for 25 and moving up. Pass for tonight. I could see him making 3rd or 4th if things swing his way. I will wait on the win for another spot.

8 Bags for All has been off a month and was flat at this level in most of her recent tries. She seems like the drop and pop type at this stage, and she needs to go lower for the drop to become pop. Post 8 also. Pass and watch. She is good when she is good and not so good when she is bad, and she shows you that in how she hits the ground.

9 Hubby Number One draws another bad post, which really hurts one like this who likes to be near the top. He went for that anyway last time and it cost him late. Pass for tonight.

4 Fork made a break before being put on the shelf. Yet another layoff. He obviously has soundness issues and always has. He won at the bottom condition below this. If he lasts long enough, I will make a call on him then. Pass in this spot.

2 Odds on Amethyst  has horrendous form and was pacing last time before he ran. I cant go near him until I see some improvement in how he travels. Watching. He has the talent to turn it around at some point.

RACE 7

When we talk about progression vs regression, this race provides some murky waters to decipher that. Hooter Shooter qualified, went forward his first start, so he seemed to be progressing. He showed wear and tear signs last time, but still paced to the wire. Is he progressing? Is he regressing? Is it just growing pains? D M Reacher appeared to be progressing, and now has looked to be regressing. About A Boy progressed off his qualifier, now will he take the next step or feel the burn of racing back to back weeks, something he has never done? To me, it all boils down to price and value in these scenarios. We cant really know which way they will go, as I`m sure even their connections dont know for sure. I never take a short price on any horse that looks to regress without showing me it was just a one time thing. As such, I will take a couple of stabs here in my top 2.

8 Wildcat Jet is named aptly, as he is the wildcard in this bunch. He is almost 5, a maiden, has not raced in almost a year, but shows a nice qualifier for his new trainer, who is also his owner, a guy who knows how to train them. He wont keep anything around that doesn`t look like it will make money. He has never made a penny. Nonetheless, I have to use him and respect how he qualified.

4 Casimir Patriot drew the 10 hole and sat way out of it in his 3rd try at this track. His 2nd last was reasonable enough, and I also find that Daylon Frontier`s improve with every start and get better with age. He fits that profile, although his form is hidden if you want to rely on it.  He was first up two back and going nowhere, but he is learning. Its strictly a price play stab with him, but we have seen J Mac get this type across a lot the last couple of years. I`d use him in the pick 4 and take the spot most would use for D M Reacher.

3 Hooter Shooter comes back for his 3rd try, and of course, he is likely to be the chalk again. He does most of it right, but last time was steppy at times and couldn`t pass a hanger like Rockin Ronnie although he was right up beside him. At the start it seemed that he wanted to leave and Jackie Mo wanted him to rate. When he finally ducked in the turn, it seemed he wanted to run over the one in front of him who was a gapper in the making. He went around that one and moved into contention, but then was iffy coming out of the last turn, and while urged, there was a good hold of the reins to keep him steady. Hard to know what the issue is or if he is just green. As his half brother has showed troubling signs like that over his entire career, I am leaning towards thinking he is going to be viable but iffy gaited as long as he races.  He has to be included in your pick 4, but he is hard to stomach at odds on for the straight win ticket. He shows troubling variables, but he isn`t meeting the second coming of Cam Fella in this group.

6 About a Boy got away slowly last time, and then finished with a decent back half. I think he might need one or two more before we see winning form. Being a Dali, I also could see him hanging if asked to pace early and fend off late. The jury is out. I want to see one more before I get a read on him.

5 Hes Gone Bad  gets a pass last time for post 10, but he doesnt get a pass for not passing the horrid ones in the pack he should have for 5th money. No thanks. He has to show something to me first. He is winless for a reason, and that reason isn`t bad posts.

2 D M Reacher cannot be played off his last line, almost a month now. He has not impressed me on the track either. I will go elsewhere and if he beats me, so be it.

1 Spaniard went around and nailed 5th money in what was a very poor field. These arent much better, but a few have hopes of being something. He is 0 for 26. No thanks.

7 Sedona Seelster was never in contention last time, start to finish, in a very gapped out field. I still dont see anything that makes me think he is worrisome to make me pay for tossing him.

9 Mckinley couldn`t get his act together for Libby, and now goes for Glide from the 9 hole off a layoff and horrid lines. He will have to be seen. I already dont like what I see on the page. Qualfiers arent races and Flamboro is well known as the place you go if you want to do stuff close to post time of a qualfier. Note who beat him in that qualifier and how that one looked last time we saw him. Pass.

RACE 8

4 Our Mojo got it right last week, and popped the pocket late in the qualifier, easily sailing by the leader in a fast time. He gets to start out lower, but because he has had 3 qualifiers off the layoff, I can assume a bit more sharpness and ability to pop off the shelf than we usually expect. He gets a new trainer for the return, and she turned one of Keeling`s last week, who almost won at 14-1.  As Gangle notes in the program, he does a lot better at Woodbine than Mohawk, and in the winter as well. Top call.

2 Escuela had the rail last time and that didn`t help her cause. She got away mid pack, and thus pulled first up, forced to trot a huge 3rd quarter to get into contention, and then finished well, picked off for 2nd by a known closer. You cant fault her. She is very trip dependent though, and Henseley is still not proven at this track. I list her 2nd, but she is another. A lot will have to go her way to get home first.

10 Grana Padanno goes lower here, but draws the 10 hole. Obviously, that will compromise him, but I`m willing to list him top 3 with a shot based on what he is capable of and the soft nature of the middle of this field.

7 Crown Classic floated out last time, but was sitting mid pack when the pace slowed and she got doubled up briefly then put in steps, almost a full run. CC caught her and kept her at it, and she came back on for 2nd money, but the classy winner had her own way and she was long gone. These look a shade deeper here. I could see her, but I like others better.

3 Hldontghttoyurdrms had no excuse last time and was struggling in the lane, barely getting up for 3rd. I cant back him from what I see right now and the short price that will come again tonight. He can beat me if he steps up. He rarely does.

1 Kennel Buddy draws better and drops. That is the good news. He was 65-1 and well out of it last time. That is the bad news. I like others, but he does win a lot of races. Minor shot. Very minor. A lot would have to right that he doesn`t control.

5 Maximuscle is hard to like off the page, his penchant to make breaks, and his overall record of finding a different way to lose each time. He got away with his issues in Quebec. Here, he pays for the mistakes.

6 Musical Spell is not doing enough for my liking, and there are too many others in here with a reasonable shot to think he can slide home under the radar by attrition. Pass.

8 Eldorado of Gold S comes in off the layoff and a so so qualifier, where he wasnt dangerous to Our Mojo. Pass for me. He has a history of hanging, even when he is in good form.

9 Severus Hanover drops but draws the 9 hole and he was gapping badly in the lane and turn last time. I have to see more. He will get it together once this winter. He seems to do that. Not this spot for me. I watch him though. He is a longshot type when the variables come together to hit the sweet spot.

RACE 9

Need my top 4 for the pick 4 or late double. Could be any of them, although I do prefer the top 2.

7 Shadow Margeaux was clearly better last time, and showed why he was being bet heavily all the times before. 54.3 back half probably takes this bunch if he can duplicate that. I will call him to do it. He is risky and could easily blow up on me. That is the risk you assume playing these types in these races. Woggy Rocks, the one who beat him last week, showed how easy it is to turn it around fast. He is 6-1 ML, but Gangle takes him on top, which leads me to think others will play off his improved form. I would take 9-2,  maybe 4-1. No less.

1 Cs Eye seemed to need one last time, and was not gunned kamikaze style like he normally is. It was almost like a 2nd qualifier to tighten him up, which it did. He knocked another 3 seconds off in 4 days. He is back at that level. He has a shot to go forward, and the rail is actually a help to this kind, who has a very quick first step off the wings and gets rail control without working hard for it.

4 St Lads Lotto gets a better post here, and has dangerous form as Jackie Mo drives instead of Ryan. He has been hot of late, almost a resurgence of sorts. He is one of many who can step up here.

2 Im the Pied Piper drops in class and gets lasix. He is 3 weeks out of the box, but that wouldn`t concern me with Cullen, who is likely to have trained or schooled him in 55 a week out. He has a shot on the variables at play for him tonight. He beat far better the last two years when Burke had him.

10 Hes a Sensation post does his type in. Massive class drop gets him overbet. Its not a true drop when you are a 50-1 shot and race like a 99-1. Pass.

3 Mister X raced well last week, but was short of the top ones when the real pacing was done near the wire. He just doesn`t finish like an A track horse, even against the worst this track offers. Pass.

8 Brookdale Sonny was once a promising colt. He was even staked up to the NA Cup and hadnt even raced until the spring. That was then. He has bombed out and now hits the bottom class with terrible form. When you need to go to Truro to get brave and win races, you lose my respect. He will have to earn it back.

5 Veroi Bayama is a big time hanger who is probably better suited for a straight 8 claimer. The names of those who beat him last time do not impress me. When you are behind those, you don`t get respect from me. Pass until I see the appropriate class drop.

6 Big Petes Style continues to show me nothing. Maybe he will turn it around. Have not seen any signs of that yet. Pass.

9 Cams Tux cant use him as is. Pass

RACE 10

3 Crankin It Up is yet another Skydancer Hanover to find Weller, and from the Wilfongs. He is making a pretty good buck turning Hoosier rats on that exact angle. This one a full brother to CS Eye, only one year older. He won his first of the year last week, and now comes to Weller with Hoosier closing up shop for the winter. One thing about trainers is this: When they have had foals from certain sires and families, say a common mare, they know things about them that make it easier to try and hone more performance out of them. This appears to be one of those. I will call him on top because of that, and I doubt I`m alone playing him. He probably goes off the fave, albeit a lukewarm 5-2, 3-1 type. I will take it.

2 Scotty Mach N drew bad but closed up well last time. I can make a case for him. He is possible. He will need the right flow trip.

5 Curator goes 2nd off the claim after a conditioned test drive from the 7 hole at Flamboro last time. Maguire has a good record as a driver, even though it was at a track where most are not professionals. The horse needs to leave better to get there first. I don`t see him swooping this field and beating the top 2 contenders. Shot if he can get in a live flow, and not 4th over. 

7 Jac Spade had the trip last time but couldn`t reach the classy winner, who is on his last legs but they are faster legs than what he was facing. This guy just doesn`t win much. I have to pick against him when I can see others who are viable. I`d roll the dice and leave him off the pick 4.

1 Be Calm Hanover is 3 races off the claim for his new boss, and he has had excuses. He drew bad at Rideau twice, and ran in the first effort for the trainer. Another new trainer here, and one who has a long history of turning horses like this around. I will watch, but he could beat me tonight. If I like what I see, I might go to him next week. Not exactly a class brimming with repeat winners week to week. Staying ahead of the curve is the key to cashing in on value. Lets see if he fits the profile of one who could be that next week.

4 Mammoth Jack paced a solid mile last time, to his credit, but came home with no money. I like others better until he proves to me he can make the ticket at this track. The last eighth does him in here. It does many.

6 Tea With Ms Mcgill is not one I can back on current form. Dowling is a sharp guy and usually makes good claims that work out well for him and his owners. I think he eats this one and we all do if we claim enough of them. He was good for a few weeks, but horrid for a couple of years. He seems to be regressing again.

9 Royal Canvas didnt like what I saw from him last week. He regressed and that is enough for me. He got a one race bump from the new trainer. It didn`t last.

10 Bieber Hanover he can beat me. I wont be backing this one at this track. He should be moved out shortly.

8 Conflict Diamond was an early scratch.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 21, 2016. part 2, temp blog.

RACE 6

As usual, this is the type of race we see all the time where you have to look the other way on a lot of them that classic handicapping tells you to avoid them. Something has to win this race. That is the only known we have to work with here. That horse doesn't have to be much stock or have great form to do it. Start there.

True Muscle drops out of the Autumn, where she was overmatched, although she had a post that compromised her 2 back and she closed up well enough to be in the mix late. She has beaten better than many of these, but also has a tricky gait which gets her some nights. She made the Grassroots final, and of course, that has to be considered against many in here who wouldn't even make the stakes payments to race in those. I'd have to use her in the pick 4 on the chance she puts it together tonight. J Mac is a longshot machine, and that is another factor. 

Deuce Deuce Deuce has been off 6 weeks, made a late break last time, and comes back with no qualifiers but adding lasix. He is hard to like, but reasonable enough to think he can step up in a pick 4 scenario. Usable but I wouldn't play him with a win ticket. His record before the break and layoff was better than most of these and he is competitive in this class if he finishes better and stays trotting. 

Withahearttomatch loses J Mac to True Muscle, but picks up Trevor. Tomato/tomato. Can never discount anything Larry Walker trains, as he can find things and make adjustments. He used to bring in a lot of longer shots with just this type back in the day, and why cant he still do that? She is very well bred, but didn't race at 2 or 3. Last time, she left out, followed along, gapping a bit as J Mac pulled the plugs, appeared to be going all she can go in the lane but still lost positions in a 32 second last quarter. Tough call. She could just be not much stock. So are the rest of most of these. I could have said a lot of those things about the 2 horse last week. Your call. I'd probably use her while avoiding the two more "logical" ones outside of her. A spot for a spot, and higher odds. 

Ado Duharas shows 2 racelines on the page, both times he ran and took himself out of it. Last time, on the lead, Mario tapped him to go forward and he said "eff you" back and galloped. He is a non trier. He stayed well back of Fearless Man last time and trotted evenly, which he probably can always do, and likely what got him those 7 wins at the B tracks. If you ask him to work, he will decide to canter. I'm sure Mario has learned what works with him in the two trips behind him. That is a plus in his favor.

Mostinterestingman has one lifetime win, and is also dropping out of the Autumn, where he was over his head to win it but good enough to pick up shares. Dupuis lists himself. If that holds, I will pass on him. He isn't a driver and driver will matter in this race. If he changes that and picks up a pro driver, the horse parades well and is on the bit, I'd change my tone and use him in the pick 4. Sadly, the pick 4 decision has to come two races earlier, so, the driver decision is the key. He adds a pro, use him.

Secretcode Hanover is one Vanderkamp has to be careful with, as he throws in extra steps most of the way, especially that last turn, even with the added stability of the trotting hopples. As such, he cant blast out and gets hung like he did leaving last time. That catches up to him at the end, and he was passed by a low talent rat last time in a 32 second last quarter. I will go elsewhere, and go against my rule of always using Vanderkamp in every pick 4 so he doesn't beat me with his savvy.

Little Stuie  is 2 for 36 the last two years, and sporting the donut this year. He draws the 9 hole here, and that usually is death to a type that cant win races with every chance. He was flying late last time, but flying is relative to the quicksand the ones in front of him were trotting in a 32 second staggerfest. He had every chance 2 back on the engine but stopped that night too. I hate his breeding and he races right to it. Pass for me. It has to be something else here.

Im Wanted looks the part, and has ability, but is a shit for brains and will run at any point. He also has lameness issues, which were apparent on the last turn before he blew up. One of these nights he will show up sound, behave, get the right trip and blow up the tote board. His brother Cracker Jack has done that a few times too, although he is proven and this one is nothing to this stage in his almost 5yo life. Post 1 on a windy Woodbine November night, I will watch again, and hope he doesn't make me pay like the 2 horse did last week.

Shestherealthing made a great pre race appearance in the parade last week, but like a fool, I didn't play her and her huge odds, because I know she can be a basket case and also her lines were horrid by anyones measure. She was rank on the engine until covered up, but then made me pay for not taking a risk on her. This week, she is likely to take money and revert back to her bad behaving ways. She had a lot of trouble passing a leader who wanted to get beat last time. I will go to others. These types rarely double up or put two together. That is why they have the record they do. Her Mr Chin dam leads me to think she comes by her crazy honestly.

Archery comes in with 2 gate breaks his last 4 starts, and two wins in the other two. And the 10 hole tonight as he comes back to this circuit. He picks up Saftic, who I would think would have him off the gate to stay trotting, and conservative to the last turn to keep him in good form with a shot to close late and be ready for next week and a better draw. Pass for tonight. Prospect down the road if he shows me enough.

RACE 7

Cams Lucky Sam goes 2nd start for Carmen, after drawing the 10 hole and sent on a mission that became impossible. He self destructed, not in 5 seconds, but in about 2 minutes. He draws better here, and has both a fast record and several wins under his belt. Big shot. 

Dreamfair Mesa gets some class relief tonight, and also Randy back, who seems to get the most out of him. He is very variable in terms of how he paces and how interested he is on any given night. For the right price, and considering the nature of this field, I'd use him in the pick 4 and give him a shot to win the race outright as a bet. He has gate speed and he needs to start better. Not to lead persay, but to at least be in 2nd or 3rd over position. He cant swoop them all like he did for his last win most nights.

Late Night was a promising colt at one stage, taking on NYSS types and also some other bearcats. That was abandoned awhile ago, but now he has confidence and some wins, and also moves out of claimers and nw of conditions to tackle nw3. Is this the sweet spot for him? I'm willing to say it could be, and would use him in the pick 4. Brealey's bunch have started to heat up again. That is the plus that makes me add him.

Mach Messier cut the mile again last time, and lasted longer to a pretty decent colt. It was a more favorable night to try that, but I maintain he is better following up close than fending off challenges. That cheque makes him move up..before winning. Bit player tonight with the chance to develop into a win shot player in December if he keeps on track and learns to accept a trip at this level.

Dreamy Fella is another who gets class relief tonight and needs it. The jury is still out on him, and he might be another of Weller's that he is tinkering with before he tags him again and jams him 3 times for the purse money and the claim when they wont let him steal anymore. We have seen that Jones Shooter movie already the last couple of weeks. I will go elsewhere tonight, but I watch.

Jack Rackham has tried various styles and classes, and none have added up to a win, or even much close to it. I think Montini would be very happy if they wrote a 4yo 20 claimer in the New Year. He is probably worth more than 15 plus at this stage, but these seem beyond his reach to me.

Tango Star has 2 lifetime wins and has been sucker money many times in his life. That isn't his fault, but its indicative that he is generally overrated and has to move up here while not performing well a step below. Toss for me. 

Migrate Blue Chip gets to drop back down, but based on his last race, and last turn issues, I cannot go near him. I've never liked him anyway and he has been overbet his entire life. He is almost 5 and has 2 lifetime wins.

The Illuminator is a hanging rat. I can toss him with complete confidence that he is not dangerous in this spot, for openers.

Redonkulous No shot. Too many variables to matter. Just know he is. 

Race 8
 
Dragin the Wagon takes the class drop and gets the relief he needs. Those were pretty much Preferred types he tried to trot with last time, and he simply isn't one of those, although he gave it the college try. He didn't completely cave, and that is a good sign. He can leave hard and trots smooth, willingly. This is a good spot for him.

Catch the Dream took the big class drop last time, but blew up at the gate, looking like he struck himself and that was that. He comes right back and I can forgive that race and view him as viable if he brings a more reasonable price. He has some talented ones inside him though, and this wont be the cakewalk that last race would have been if he had been ready to trot the entire mile.

Cash for Gold has never been the most consistent type, and he also starts poorly then falls into tough and sometimes impossible trips. He also can trot a storm in the lane, as he is a big rangy trotter with speed, if.......they go enough in front of him and he finds the right flow. He beat these 2 back. Shot, but the price has to be right. I'd think 9-2 is about right. 

Zeus Lightning trotted a decent mile for 2nd last time at this level, well back of the winner, and generally, they were a lot softer and not nearly as deep as this bunch. He seems to just come around a few times a year, and that might be the case now. I like others, but he wouldn't shock me. 

Olympic Son moves up off a win. He hasn't been sharp for awhile. Reid is gone south, Boyd takes over, but I have to see more from him. Pass tonight. He is capable, but others look more viable.

Its Huw You Know made two mistakes in a row and is a bad behaving one. He is good when he doesn't get up to his antics. He will have to show me he is stopping that behavior. I don't see it. I gave him the benefit of the doubt for last time. Enough of that from me.
 
White Becomes Her drops in class, but she is ofer on the year and has trouble when there is more contention in a race like this. I don't think this is the right spot for her tonight. Pass. She drops her bottom line and gets to take a massive class drop next time to the bottom class. I expect her to be buried and take 5th at best.

Murmur Hanover went to Flamboro to steal money last time and wired them. Back here, he folds like a suitcase if pushed. These are tougher than the ones he couldn't even fend off. He is the ML choice. I wouldn't even bet him at 20-1 in with this bunch.

Ramas Last Son is a bit player type unless he goes low enough, and gets the 9 hole again. I like others and will take my chances post plus class equals wait another day.

Race 9

Never Been Told  was first time lasix last time, and wired the bottom level claimer. By many. Good enough for me. He has a big shot. The class rise only matters if the ones who race in the class above have that extra class. Most of these currently do not show it. They are borderline 8's. He beat those.  

Outlaw Gunpowder drops back in to the class he fits well. I mentioned the last couple of weeks I thought he was over his head. He is now back where his grinding style can wear down the ones he grinds. However, he might be tired chasing those that were beyond his means. That happens. I call him 2nd because of that. 

Cundalini has raced well twice at this level if you toss his 10 hole race in between those. He isn't my top choice, but he has a shot if the ones I pick don't show up or don't get the trip they need.

Er Quinn got the right trip last time, but as usual, he was wonky coming to the wire. He held together, and he can be dangerous when he gets things to go his way, like last time. I will play that they don't this time, and he gets beat.

Cobalt Man the wild card in the bunch. He has been going in the wrong direction for awhile now. Last time he had trip excuse, but no excuse to hang in the lane when the ones in front of him appeared spent, yet he could not pass any of those. He drops again, and the combo of Fillion and Moreau plus the drop will get him bet again, maybe even the favorite. I will go against him again. He has been a failure for a long time. One of those Rock N Rolls with the no try attitude you hear about. He made 400k when he was younger, but he is fading fast as a viable A track racehorse.

Vegas Rich is an interesting addition to the mix. Gibson had him his entire life, but Mike Stoikopolous has him now, and he has a history of gradually sorting out an underperformer like this. I will watch closely as he brings him here for a try at A track competition. Not tonight as a play.

Intended Style parked the entire mile last time, but to his credit, he kept at it and didn't completely cave. He draws the 10 hole here. That is enough to do him in in my book.
 
Gunpowder doesnt seem to have a style that can produce a win at this level. He can make the tri coming late if others cave and backpeddle. I cant see him winning as is.

Who Doesnt was claimed for 8, and to me, that is what he is. Any class rise above that takes away the shot he has. Pass.

Light Foot Rd draws outside for horrifically low percentage trainer Fuller. No shot.

Race 10

Home James was blasted last time in his 2nd try at the Autumn. So much for that. He does show signs, and Trevor can make a difference here. I will list him top call, but I have to have my price. That price is the ML, 8-1. 

Sharky Shark tried the nw2 off his lone race, a win in the maidens. He came a big back half and looks like a player in a spot with not many who are that dangerous looking.

East End was moved on the last turn last time, but looked like he wanted to run again, which is what he does. He held together, but its anyone's guess which one he will be here. I'd have to see him parade to make a guess, and it would just be a guess, as he only does it at very high speed on the turn. Use him, but he can go either way. He is no lock.

Jrs Big Buddy proved me wrong last week by leaving hard and sticking with the top pair all the way. I will eat crow on that comment. He is possible, but he has to show it wasn't a fluke.

Shadowfall missed last week and I thought that was a good spot for him. I had him listed 2nd there. These seem a bit tougher for him to handle, and being that he can be a cheater, I expect Vanderkamp to bury him and race him easy. I go to others. He is possible, but others look more viable.

Putnams Legacy won 2 races at 2, but none since in 30 tries. Hard to knock his 53 mile last time, but that was tagging along to a horse that went in 51. Does he have hidden form, or did he just go fast and will regress to competition? At the end of the day, he backed away in the lane and lost lengths. That is what they pay for. Not how fast you go, but who you beat. Minor shot, but its hard to back him unless he is bombs away, like say, 30-1.

Red John is a 2yo who beat maidens but now draws outside and faces nw2. That is a recipe that leads to a phrase called pass.

King of Sports got around clean with Phil, but loses him to the 7. Hopples back on. They were off for a reason. You only pull hopples if you think that helps a horse that needs help. I will watch. 

Century Churchill continues to be a bit player now that he has finally got the maiden monkey off his back. He now has the no mans land tag on his chest. Prove me wrong.

Winning Drive has a pedigree, form and connections that make it easy for me to toss him. His slow leaving style also is not a plus.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 14, 2016

Race 1
 
NIGHT WITCH  was a monster last time, sitting in to the half, pulling and blasting by in a 27.4 3rd quarter move and then coasting home all by herself. If she is viable off the post parade, she towers over this bunch. Boyd knows how to train a horse. I don't see the trainer change as an issue. If she brings 3-1 or so, my Best Bet of the night.

ARE YOU IN goes to Julie Walker, who has been known to turn some mediocre young trotters into slightly better stock. This one has been facing a few who would be 1-5 or lower in with this bunch, namely Georgies Pockets, Dancer Hall, Manofmanyimages and Safekeeping. None of those types in this race. He can leave, will keep trotting and will appreciate not having to go a huge 3rd quarter like last time to just keep up. If all of that plays out, he has a legit shot to make the ticket, and even win if others blow up. He does have to improve his last quarter. Maybe the trainer change makes that happen.

 PAMPERED IN PINK benefited from a soft trip and a leader who ran last time, and she was in the right place to win it. She was going all she can go to the wire, and needed a pretty favorable front end trip the time before to win that too. She did win both, and you cant take that away from here. Post 10 and Per this time, I will go to others. I think she goes down and is iffy to even stick for the ticket.

PREMIER GLITTER is a talented but troubled mare, with 12 lifetime starts approaching the end of her 4yo season. She doesn't make a good post parade appearance based on what I've seen before, draws the 9 hole and comes in off another layoff. She is just illogical enough to win this. If you have room, toss her on your pick 5, but she is hard to like against my top choice here.

POLLAR HALL loses the good post advantage that saw him leave out and secure soft following trips. He doesn't have that final eighth of a mile that winners do at WEG, and that does him in when it matters. He does leave well enough that if a few run inside him, he can get out close again. That gives him a shot with these, but I like others better. He seems at least 1 second short of my top pick.
 
OCEANVIEW PANCHO  beat up all year on Maritime bred trotters who cant get out of their own way. If you watch those races, more than half the field is trying to just stay on gait to pick up as much of the pie as they can, and many cant even do that. The water is much deeper here, and while there should be some major time improvement from Charlottetown to Woodbine, I'm not sold this horse can compete with the top 2 or 3 in this race. Not yet anyway. I want to see it first. Pass.

 EMPIRESTATEOFMIND was all out last time to get up on the last step, bearing out very bad at Vernon. Before that, she cut the mile and was fading from the turn home under heavy urging. She is a 2yo at the end of a long season. Pass for now. I am not certain she is WEG stock, even with many in here who will end up with that label as well. 

J N RYDER is a confirmed maiden who is around 50 starts plus. He goes around and picks up pieces, because he can leave well and keeps trotting. More of the same from him tonight. Possible for the super, but not on my ticket otherwise.

GRAMSTER is 4 starts and almost 3 months into his stay at Ben B's barn, and I've seen nothing to suggest he can do anything with him. Pass.

ZORGWIJK PARKHILL is up against it now that KD has closed and he probably cant get around Flamboro well enough to compete, which is closer to his speed ability. 99-1 shot who is impossible to play.

Race 2

AWESOMENESS was handled carefully by Mario last time as the horse can be a bit of a bully if you let him get too tight to the one in front of him. He came up the rail, but that wasn't the preferred part of the track and another with a better trip and driver edged him out. Mayotte is back aboard and he should handle this bunch, coast to coast, which he did 2 back.

MACH MESSIER cut the mile but gave it up late, on a night when the front was horrific and most packed it in completely trying that tactic. He gets J Mac instead of Cullen, and obviously that is an upgrade. If he can get to the 2 hole and follow my choice, he isn't impossible. He needs a lot for him to go right to win it, but he is certainly viable for the ticket if he doesn't try to cut it. J Mac seems like a trip out specialist. so, there is that.

EAST END traveled smoother last week and was in play deep in the lane, edging the top choice. He is one of many, but viable. He also doesn't strike me as the type that doubles up. Everything went his way last time, and that rarely repeats for any horse.

SHARKY SHARK benefited from a maiden race with two heavy faves who blew up completely, a front end horse who stopped to a walk, and a gapped out field that left him an easy path to blow by late. He did that, and is a prospect going forward, but tonight, he is up against it against a few who are far ahead of him on the speed and experience ladder. Pass, but watching.

CENTURY CHURCHILL took forever to get the first lifetime win, and he did so against a bunch who are unlikely to win any races at WEG. He reverted back to follow and pick up pieces in this class, and I will tab him for that again, and again, and again, until he shows me some grit.

P H BLACKJACK ships back in, for Brealey, who kept ownership, but is now more than 3 weeks out. He took a big score at Truro, but struggled here before. He seems more likely to be a Flamboro or London horse, before he settles in to a 10 or 15 claimer at some point. Pass, but mindful that Brealey can turn a horse like this.

JRS BIG BUDDY does not appear competitive at this track and is up against it now that KD has closed. Post 8 makes it easier to toss him, which I will do.

Race 3

If you are playing the pick 5, I'd take my top 6 and just move on. Its a crapshoot race. I eliminated the bottom 4. Any of the rest can luck out and win this.

CORE FUSION gets a better post and is 2nd time lasix, which is a decent double angle. He was solid 2 back when out closer to the pace. That is likely again. Saftic drives him steady, so if he shows up tonight, that is a plus. If he doesn't, that is a big negative. He did gap the gate by several lengths last time and he has issues with the gate generally. He will have to be on it or close to it to make the most of this post. He also was 3 wide a long time last time, and that is another thing that leads him to hang late, which he has shown he will also do. He is in the mix, but I wouldn't go near a short price on him.

SIBSON comes back faster this time, and is another who cut the mile on a night when that was not favorable to getting a good result. He stayed at it better than most did trying that. I give him credit for that.  Trevor sticks with him, and he is red hot. Another plus for a horse that likes to leave, which is what Trevor does well at Woodbine. Now, the negatives. He is highly inbred to a sire that should never be inbred, and that shows up in him being able to maintain soundness week to week. Coming back quicker could even be considered a negative here, as is post 1 for a trotter at Woodbine.

STORMONT DUNDAS can leave and follow, but not finish, which is not surprising considering his Tom Ridge dam. He can be part of the ticket, even win if a lot goes his way. I will pass on him for the win. He is the type that something is always just a bit better than him on any given night, even ones he finished ahead the previous week or weeks.

ANDOVERS CHOICE is a 23 time maiden who has had a lot of good chances to not be a maiden, 6 weeks from his 4yo debut. As such, he is driven with that in mind. Last time, he split horses late after getting the soft trip he needs, and was only outtripped by another who did the same but had a big jump on him. He is knocking on the door with these types, but its a guess to say if he will get anyone to come to the door and let him in. He needs others who are viable to fail. That is hard to rely on, but, yet, with this field, not a fantasy to see playing out.

HILARIOUS HERO is 0 for 20 lifetime and for good reason. He was parked out last time, as most will not let a horse like that go thinking they know how to stop and lose, and nobody wants to be behind them when they do. 2 back, he couldn't outstagger Grace Duhuras, who was trying to lose but couldn't. 4 back he was put on the engine but caved in completely, losing to Groupie Doll, another who acquired here Professional Maiden card honestly but turned it in that night.  If 2 of 3 inside him somehow run or gap the gate, and he can get out near the front and sit in, which he has shown he can do, he can also graduate. Can, but likely wont.

DAD LEADS tried the Gold colts at 2, and while he never won, banked 47k doing so. He even made the Superfinal, where he picked up 5th money. That campaign obviously gutted him, or hurt him, as he missed the entire season this year after trying to qualify in May but didn't make it and just started up again last week. His breeding suggest lameness, and the trainer/driver, part owner handles him this time. I think he can step up this winter, if he stays sound, but for now, I will watch to see if he progresses and also can be durable.

 VEYRON  post 10 with Durand driving the first time starter with one qualifier under his belt. Not sure what his future is, as Durand is patient and also tricky to figure without seeing the horse go, but his prospects tonight are close to zero.

IGOCRAZY WITHOUT U was on terrible cover last time, but even so, he consistently just doesn't finish. They removed lasix on the switch from Tioga to this circuit, and that hasn't made a difference. He is just a B track horse looking for the right B track to grind out a solid 15 or 20k a year for the rest of his career. He is 0 for 21 in spite of going to the B's looking to find a spot to win a race.

HIGH SOCIETY in a race with horses that dont want to win, have little speed, or finishing ability, she is the worst one of that lot. Add post 8 and a non driving driver, and a failed attempt at Flamboro, and you have a well bred Muscle Hill that just hasn't panned out.

PARKHILL MAVERICK post 9, his suspect form and penchant for making breaks suggest a toss. Consider him tossed.

Race 4

CRAFTY MASTER came off the shelf for Puddy last time and was solid, but short of the field at the finish. He blasted out of there, and that is a good sign, as he needs to be forwardly placed to account for the length or two he loses on the last turn, his longtime habit. I can see him being right there tonight with the good post and an aggressive Phil steer again.

JIMMY BE GOOD had great form for Puddy and Moase when in with these types, but was horrid the night he was claimed by Lee, and was just taken to the back and had too far to come last time. This field is ripe to be taken, and he is capable of doing that. I am always suspicious of any horse that passes through Puddy and Moase and comes out the other end, but that doesn't mean he can't be good tonight. He is a factor.  Trevor could have gone to Fellows one, but he took this one instead. That is a plus.

LONEWOLF CURRIER does not impress me, was bearing out bad at the end last time, and loses the Allard juice and painkiller. Pass and go against in with this bunch. He is virtually certain to be claimed again tonight, and thus raced hard and with abandon. Montini didn't jack him up to protect him, knowing that. I think he is a false favorite and bad play tonight.

A BOY NAMED SUUZZ does his best when he is out and winging it. He has the dreaded 10 hole tonight, and there are several that will leave and not give him a hole. Thus, he is damned if he leaves, and relegated to a long wide trip if he takes back. He is dropping into a claimer, against much softer than he has faced lately. Minor shot if somehow he can go against the bias against him tonight and get away near the front without being gutted.

WALTZKING HANOVER goes in for a lower tag than he was claimed for, as drawing the outside with this bunch is a death sentence to him for a chance to make money, which he has not as of yet with Cullen. I like others better, but I can see where using that fast 3rd quarter move will be more effective if he stays in and isnt spotting them 15 plus lengths. Pass for me, but he is dangerous enough to include if you want to do that.

PAR INTENDED is in for another very long trip tonight. He isnt the soundest horse either, and you cant count on him to be viable night to night. I cant use him from this post. Pass.

P L HEAVENLY is not very sound, and thus handled carefully leaving to keep him in play. He is also a very infrequent winner and often acquires long wide trips which dont help his cause to get his picture taken. Pass for me.

NEEDLECREST drops into a claimer, but these appear tougher than those he faced last time. He also cant leave to save his life, and isnt a bearcat passing horses most nights either. Another who is probably better off in for 15k. Pass and toss for me.

 BAZINGA BRAD is fairly solid for 15k, but in deep with this level of competition. Pass and toss for me. He needs to go back in lower and risk the claim. Race them where they belong. That is what they tell you. For good reason. Its true.

CHOSEN HOMBRE looked horrific and lame first off the claim. I cant go anywhere near him until I see that corrected.  These arent soft. He will have to be turned around to even be viable against many who have proven tougher and more talented than him over the years, and also lately.

Race 5

ER QUINN sat way out of it last time, and closed a ton late, but he was too far back to matter. Phil takes over, even though Ryan is here to drive. That is curious. This horse has yo-yo form as a rule, and you never know if he will blow up the tote board, or just pack it in and back through the field. If the price is right, he is worth a shot.

 RAGING FINGERS  was a winning, cash machine for years in Alberta, many times daylighting his competition because he was so much the best and few wanted to try him.
He shipped east with Cullen, and he tagged him too low, drawing Sheppard, who loves to claim, jam, win, and then lose them. Cullen took him right back, jacked him up one level, and jogged. He moves him up again, but he certainly appears as good as any of these. His one flaw for this circuit is his lack of great gate speed, which, knowing Cullen, means he is in for another of his first over missions. I'm not 100 percent sold he can last and win off that tonight, but he is possible.

RAIN GAUGE pretty much wired them last time at Flamboro for Cullen, who lost him. He is an interesting horse. He hardly raced his entire life, then came to life at the Manitoba fairs, and was unbeatable for weeks last year when he came to Cullen, who jammed him every week, and nobody would claim him. Many weeks he just sent him down the road, as far ahead as he could get, and most of those could not catch him in doing so. He goes first time Kyle here, and his form suggests he is right there if he gets the trip. Is he an 8 or 12 at this track? Tonight we will get an indication of that. I'm on the fence. As 10-12s go, these are very soft.

CUNDALINI  takes the lower tag, a wise move, to avoid the outside post which did him in the last two times he got it. He can leave a ton, and that helps his cause with these. Another option, among many in here. Trip race. He needs a breather if he is to get home first. I don't see that happening with Cullen pulling early and gunning at him. 

STIMULUS SPENDING takes the class drop and needs to. He is a horribly gaited horse at times, but on the right night, when he can overcome that and make it out of the first turn clean, he has some go. JJ gets the most out of him and has several wins with him.  His last race time stacks up well against these if he can reproduce it. That isn't always a great variable to play with these types, who are very variable and inconsistent as a rule. I like others better for the win, but he is dangerous.

 LITTLE TURK  was taken for 8500 off Copley and then kept at London. He comes back now for 10k, which might be a bit above where he can compete. He faded for 8k at this track the last time we saw him, and he has generally disappointed more times than come through over the years.

WHO DOESNT yet another taken off Cullen, another who took the outside post on the handicap last time, and he was a non factor. I think he is iffy for 8k, so to stay at this level, even with a better post, I will wait until he drops back and see how he stacks up there. Pass.

INTENDED STYLE has looked like a used up pacer for some time now, and one that made a lot of people money and won many races the last couple of years. There is a price to pay for that. He is paying that price now. Pass. Hope he stays on his feet and doesn't knock anybody down.

LIGHT FOOT RD takes the high tag and bad post for low percentage trainer Fuller. His last was bad and his form is spotty anyway. Toss.

GIVE EM HECK gets the 10 hole. There are too many ones in here to suggest he would beat them all from this post. Another night maybe, and it wouldn't hurt if he drew inside and was in for 10k. He scored for Moreau, but otherwise he has been poor for others. That is indicative of what it takes to make him go.

Race 6

CROWN CLASSIC hung late last time, as is her habit. She is good enough on her best night to win this, and CC gets the most out of her. Her two latest tries at this level came from rail starts, which is not preferable. I will give her a pass and think she leaves and sits in. She needs some racing luck, but at a price, she is possible to take shot with.

ROCKIN WITH DEWEY  is trying to find a spot to be competitive and regain her confidence. This is that spot, but the post will hurt her when she gets used early and has to fend off the pack late. Beatable, but obviously, if things went her way, she could barely hold on at the wire. At times this year, she has tackled the best. That takes a toll on a trotting mare. She goes Blinkers to Open hoping that helps her.

HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS when he is good, he can be competitive, even win the Preferred. When he is not good, he can get beat by anything. Being off 4 months, obviously he wasnt good when shut down. Fillion takes over here on the class drop, one after the tightener try. He had almost no trot on the end of the mile last time, even though he never left the rail. I will go against him for the win tonight, at a very likely short price. His time will come again this winter. Not tonight for me. He can prove me wrong.

ENTRANCED  is 2 for 43 the last two years. If he can overcome the 1 hole and get away top 2, he could trip out. That is how a horse like this wins a race or two a year. I cant count on that. Bit player.

JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL makes start 38 tonight, and made 40 last year. She certainly knows her job and shows up every week. But even the most durable get tired. She did not have favorable posts her last two races, and the results reflected that. She likes to leave and get up close, and then sit. She is generally a smaller cheque type, and I will call her for that again.

SCARY GOOD I dont think has won a race at this track for 3 years and most nights doesn't even go forward off perfect trips. Pass and toss. Its probably time to consider a bottom claimer for him.

WIN THE DAY off his current form, I will pass and toss him. I see nothing that says he is going in the right direction. He is talented. I will wait for some sign.

STEPPIN OUT and MAD FOR PLAID  have zero shot and cannot win this race under any scenario.

Race 7

EDWARD TEACH looked very good parading last time, was sent out of there, parked the mile, well past the half, and yet, made the lead and went a long way before he finally gave it up. He is back at this level, better post and has raced with far better in the last year or so and held his own. He is possible. He goes Blinkers to Blind.

FRANKIE BOY made a break leaving in his first start for Zeron, and he has had that issue before. And just like before, he still paced a big mile while doing it, going in 54.2 from the half home to nab 3rd. He qualified back,  I'm sure with some Zeron fine tuning, and has a big shot tonight if he can get away clean and not spot them too many lengths.

SENIOR MARKET finished better last time than he has for a while, which was 2nd time lasix. Post 7 is a good one for a leaver like him, and was a very good post on Saturday. I can see him leaving hard and being in the mix. He needs the right type of luck to take it all the way. Sitting on Trevors back and getting out at the last second, but not too late, is that trip.

BATTLE CALL returns off a long layoff, goes for Gilmour, but exits a very competent one in Harmon. He removes lasix. His qualifier was bad, and he has a bad post. I cant see him being a player in this race. He has a lot of troubling variables, not ones that can persuade me to play him.  He goes free legged, and that is a curious move for an aged horse who didn't before. Seems like a kitchen sink approach here.

CS EYE goes 4 days after qualifying, Thursday to Monday turnaround. He walked home again in that test, and while he is likely to be Kamikaze driven again, I think he gets picked up trying that, even though that style has worked well in the first 3 days of the meet.

MACH IT BIG  will take some tote play off his last solid finish. I will go against him. He seems at this age to find ways to lose.

BIG PETES STYLE was very good for a while late winter, early spring, but has reverted back to how he was last winter at this track. Pass. Have to see much more.

ST LADS LOTTO draws another bad post, and that continues to hurt him, when he is very trip dependent even from a good one. Pass for tonight. He has good nights and bad nights. I will continue to watch him hoping he hits the sweet spot of good post and good night at fair price.

MACH ON THE BEACH does very little to suggest he is dangerous, and loses CC to the 9 horse, in spite of him driving much of this trainers stock. Pass.

ROAN BRUISER is probably 200-1 if he shows up tonight. Nuff said.

Race 8

LISVINNIE tried to wire them last week on a night that was not a good idea, and he stopped bad. I will give him a pass on that. He needs to rate though. He isn't in the form he was in the summer that he can just outspeed them, even at this lower level. He is possible.

NEW YORK NIGHTMARE was very live last time and got up for a solid 2nd. He is a player with these, but needs to lay closer.

DRAKE comes back on 4 days, and he is tactical enough to get it done if others let him get the sweet trip he likes and needs. He does finish 2nd and 3rd a lot more than he wins. So, there is that.

COBALT MAN takes a class drop, which puts him in play with these. However, he has blown that angle on me before. I will go elsewhere. He is likely to take heavy money and I dont think he warrants that.

JENKINS CREEK  didnt look very sound last time, and showed it at the end. Same as the race before. He is a claimer. They are week to week. New barn, but I want to see how he parades. He should have won last time but didn't. He is not the type that can be 80% and win races.

HIGHLAND TARTAN goes 2nd off the claim. I rarely play anything that comes from Marty Fine and goes to another. I wont start here. Pass.

OUTLAW GUNPOWDER appears to be a solid 10, but in deep for 15. Bit player in my mind with these.

MACHAPELO has a lot of wear and tear on his 7yo legs for the 625k he has earned. He has hit the vet list twice on the page, in a row, and raced back okay last time. I will pass on him. Maybe for 8 he could be viable if he holds together.

Race 9

GIRL DRAMA  is probably the only one in here that can mow down the heavy chalk. I will give her the nod to do that.

WARAWEE PROTON  is hard to go against in this spot. Not because he has impressed me with how he appears on the track. But because there is just not much competition here. I will, however, pick him 2nd and go to my top choice for the price, who needs the right pace scenario, but can get there if she gets it.

UNCLE FREDDIE ships in and draws post 10. I cant go to him when he is up against it like that. He would need both my top choices to blow up. That isn't impossible, but not probable.

The rest appear to be a combo of bit players and non factors.

Race 10

FIRE WATCH lowers her tag to 8k and draws better as a result. In watching her for a couple of years in Alberta, she sometimes shows up, other times is not interested. I suspect Cullen will make her interested. Soft bunch. That gives her a shot.

 DONNA PARTY tried better at Flamboro and did well when she drew well. Back on this circuit, she is a claimer and is tagged accordingly. She is legit, but she is also no bearcat and beatable.

DARKTWISTEDFANTASY has been flat for a while, but we all know Carmen turns these types here and there. Another who can upset the apple cart.

 SHES A MANIAC has responded to Gilmour and she comes back to WEG, where she has won before when on top of her game. She is possible.

 LADY JEN I did not like what I saw from her last time, at the start or the finish. She was claimed, and Im not sold she doesn't blow up here. I will leave her off the ticket and play others with spotty form but a better price.

ALEXAS HOPE  has terrible form and Galucci doesn't seem to be able to do anything about it. I will wait for some sign of turning that around before I play her near the win slot.

GROUND SHAKER was 3rd best last time but wasn't doing anything to suggest she is up with whomever is the top one or two in here. I cant go to her off her weaker B track lines. She doesn't do enough to win races at WEG.

THREE PINK BOWS goes 2nd off the claim and her first was indicative that she is better off at the B's, where she has spent most of her career. Without Waxman's high octane gas in her, I will pass.

TOTAL KNOCKOUT draws bad and that takes her out of play. She needs every break to get there first. Starting way back is the nail in that coffin.

CHOOSE MY JET post 10 with that form. No thanks.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 17, 2016

Race 1

I Wish You Well Is the obvious play in with this bunch, and as such, she will bring 3-5 or less. She won in 54.3, then was laid off for some reason, and showed up last week to pace a strong qualifying mile in 55.4 to a filly who made the final of the Three Diamonds. Something would have to go horribly wrong for her to lose this race. If she parades as is, she is the one.

Vow To Wow is a solid prospect for the winter at WEG. She left hard at Hoosier last time, yielded willingly, followed and then rallied late, but the top bunch were a bit much for her. She is young, learning and progressing. I could see her winning this, but maybe next time. As J Mac has never driven her before, he might be a bit conservative the first time. I'd use her in the pick 5, but she might need one over this track and post 8 could do her in, assuming she is live. 

Maddys Credit broke her maiden early, and thus was up against it when she had to face more talented and
advanced fillies last winter. She was finally shut down and didn't even get to try OSS fillies. She has returned now with one tightener and a huge class break from the race office as they open up the maiden class on earnings to let her in. She certainly has to start better though to beat them all. That has been an issue for her most nights. She broke her maiden leaving a bit and then brushing to the top and winning in a time that would probably beat most, if not all, of these. She is a contender.

Tisdall Hanover draws poorly again. She wanted to leave hard last time, but post 8 forced her to take a tuck. She stayed in, wisely, and was behind a stopper who shuffled her back to last of those who were with the pack. She finished even, and if she had drawn better this time, I'd consider her. I will watch her this time for a future possible play.

Columnist drew chalk money in a very weak and suspect maiden field last time, and as often happens when a 28 time maiden who sports a few fast times and on the board finishes does that, she reverts to the style and ability that continues to keep her in this class. She has tried various styles, first up, brush to the top, cut the mile. None have worked. I will look elsewhere. 

Dorabella Is a 25 time maiden and has never shown she wants to win a race. She is more than happy to sit and pick up smaller pieces, and as such, I have to continue to pass on her. She has always lacked punch in the stretch. 

Two Sides Of Love is hard to back as a first time starting 2yo with one qualifier in which she stayed well back and didn't show much overall speed. Lets see what she can do in a race for money. Possibly she can be played next time. I have to see her and how she travels and responds to the demand for more speed. 

Ponder The Dream was well bet when she first came out last winter, but always found a way to get beat. She was moved out of McNair's barn, but has not done much for Giles. She is a solid leaver, but lacks the overall speed that most WEG contenders have that end up making it to nw2 and out of a maiden race. She is another at 24 times a maiden. I see 25 in her immediate future. 

Seven Angels broke her WEG maiden at 28-1 against a very poor group, after beating similar at KD. Back at nw2, she was well whipped. She gets a free pass to try maidens again, but these are much tougher at the top end of the field. Being a poor leaver from post 7 means she would have to work for it and show some grit. I dont see it. Pass.

Race 2 

Moonshine Balls gets a trainer change back to Mehlenbacher, as the Hummel experiment was a complete bust. He does show a fast win at Vernon last year, but Vernon is Vernon. He also tried to gun out in the spring, but that failed. As I got to him, and couldn't find anything to like with the top 8 above him, and I am willing to list him on top and accept that he is hard to like in most circumstances. In a race like this, hoping for a complete form reversal from a horse that shows some flashes of talent is all you can hope for. Obviously if you are playing the pick 5, this is the leg to go very deep. 

Absolut Seelster can leave fast and follow. That got him the maiden win. It could win him this race also by default. I will play him second, but post 10 might not be an issue for him if enough of them run early and he is one of the few confident leavers who gets out ahead of them. 

The Power Of Many shows her record at 2 at Northfield, and is 0 for 24 this year, even with Moreau calling the shots. She was over her head in the Autumn, and had broken equipment last time, which I can give her a pass for. She has also had post position issues for a few starts. That is a lot of benefit of the doubt, and only because these are so soft will I give her a shot. She has shown gate speed at times, and as we saw last week in this class, that goes a long way to overcome lack of talent with these types. 

Missedbyaday has hooked some pretty tough customers, Dancer Hall, Hill of A Colt and Golden Son when he was rolling along, and has also been double digits almost every start. Per takes over and I suspect some sort of test drive, tuning up is going on this time. I will pass on the win front. If he sorts this one out, I'd be willing to take a shot with him next time. 

Work That Magic drops out of the Autumn Series, where she bombed out, once as the favorite, and back in where she won 3 back. However, she paraded sore two back and raced like it in the stretch, and wasn't that much better last time. I see her as a false favorite and will go against her.

Chic Chick broke her maiden at 36-1, but has since looked horrid. She is an ugly gaited traveler, and I cant back her against winners based on the sum of her issues.

Asterix found just the right mix of rats on a lucky night for her to get her lone win. She has always been ugly gaited, although she has improved a bit in that respect for Guitard, who is very good with young trotters and sorting out issues. Her final quarters are consistently awful though, and the field that beat her last time was about as bad as it gets. I have to see something positive first from her. I have not yet.

Profound Patience showed some promise in the summer, but has regressed and has not looked dangerous for some time. Coming off a gate break, I have to think she is out to get a clean line, if that is possible. Pass.

Tattle Tale Hall is 2 for 43 lifetime, both those wins coming at Georgian Downs. She is prone to making breaks, and stopping even when she doesn't. She tried to wire them October 6th but completely caved in. I cant see how she competes for the win, even with these suspect ones.

Grego has never shown he is anything more than a small cheque getter who picks those up when others break or back through the field. Pass.

Race 3 

Mitt Jagger has been a complete bust since he looked like a promising 2yo. Coming off 3 bad posts, and a further class drop here, I can cut him some slack and hope he wakes up. He can leave a ton when asked to, and that might get him the 2 hole trip on Saftic's back. 

Avatartist was given every chance on the class drop last time, but he gave it up late. The winner of that has been razor sharp of late, and overall, even with him stopping last time, a repeat of that mile might take this very poor bunch. Dont know that I want a very short price though. Anything under 2-1 would lead me to pass on him and take a shot with something else. I see that price coming, so I took him 2nd and go with a longer shot on top.

Woggy Rocks has fallen on very hard times after he was a bearcat in the claimers last winter. Off his last mile, and those Trois Rivieres lines, I will look elsewhere. He has woken up before off some bad lines. I can list him 3rd with a shot because of that. 

Dreydl Hanover needed one last time, and finished evenly with a very poor group. These aren't any better overall. He is a very low percentage winner, but at times shows he can step up. I will give him a shot to upset the obvious favorite. He needs to leave a lot better to have a shot at capitalizing on a probable slow final quarter this bunch seems known for. 

Blue Chip Sunshine comes in with weak B track racelines, but has won here before on his good nights. I'd probably use him in the pick 5 if I had one more spot. 

Vital Sign drew bad last time, which I could forgive, if he didn't look so lame on the last turn. That was an issue for him for years, until he somehow turned it around, got claimed a few times and won his way up the ladder. Osullivan gave up on him, Zeron bought him, and as good as he is with helping this kind, it doesn't appear that is working. I see a 5 claimer in his immediate future. Pass for me, even with the much better post.

Shadow Margeaux loses Phil and has been a bust to this point for Puddy, even though he has been overbet heavily every time. I could see him up in the center of the track again if he sticks to his antics. 

Cams Tux could not be any lamer or have worse form. I will leave it at that.

Race 4

Rockin Ronnie got a solid steer last time, and was in the right place at the right time when the leader caved. He just missed and even from this post, he is a player tonight. He is an obvious contender and the one to beat in my view. He shows fast overall speed at the Big M. That could be enough to beat this weak group.

About A Boy seemed to be ready early, but then came up sick. His qualifier was ok enough, as the winner of that is a solid stakes winner. If he has one more second in the bag, and chooses to drive him to win in his first lifetime start for money, he is possible. Bringing him out now suggests he doesn't see a stakes future for him, so why not go after the money that this overnight offers? He can take my top choice, and is a must use in the pick 4 as I see it. 

Hooter Shooter Is a late starting 3yo who caught my eye last week with an impressive post parade appearance and a nice overall pedigree. He raced solid and split horses late for 2nd money. He is hard to fault, but being he has started this late, there has to be some issues. He looks like 4-5 to me, and I will go elsewhere. These types, the ones who show up late, race great their first lifetime, often bomb and then come on again a few starts down the road when the price goes up. I will play that angle and list him as viable, but beatable. 

Francis Xavier is the unknown here. A 4yo Camluck making his first lifetime start with that driver. A homebred off 2 qualifiers with the 9 hole. He scares me as these types sometimes just pop off on you. In the pick 4, I'd be inclined to use him to cover my ass. His slow starts are a big issue though. Your call. I have to see what he looks like in the post parade. Being race 4, you get to see him before deciding to use him or toss him. 

Hughgetthecredit is just a small horse, but he is speedy and can leave fast. That gets him a nice trip like last time and the time before. I would think Renaud has learned that sitting in is his shot to get the most he can from this one at this track. I'm not sure he is A track quality at this point, and might need to become that later next year in a claimer when he improves. For now, I see him as a bit player. 

Hes Gone Bad made a decent buck at 2 being 2nd a lot and staying a maiden. He was raced hard and long and has only made 3 starts this year, all well spaced out. That is not a good sign. I cant back him for the win, and will watch him closer tonight now that he is making two starts closer together. Possible future play if I like what I see. 

Toy Cop made a down the road attempt last time, and that might have worked considering the bomb out nature of that field, but he found a way to get beat. He's 0 for 15 now and I've seen enough. He can beat me if he somehow leaves and sits a 2 hole trip and saves his limited overall talent for one late brush against a weak bunch. I cant count on all of that when he is going to be a shorter price than some others in here who havent showed they are failures yet. 

Shadow Rolls shows nothing to suggest he is ready to race with those who can pace in 55 or better. He is a full brother to Shadow Margeaux, and we see the issues that one has. I have to see something positive first, and if he were to try the B's, I'd probably go against him there also at this point.

Spaniard had every chance at Hanover to break the goose egg, but completely caved in there. He backed away badly last time, in spite of two faves bombing, and the leader stopping to a walk in the lane. I dont see any hope for this one, and wouldn't even play the 26 time maiden at the B tracks.

Sedona Seelster has always been a really bad gaited stopper. He is 0 for 25 with terrible last quarters. Doug Hie rarely wins at this track and he couldn't even get this horse across all summer at KD in a phony 6 claiming maiden. I cant see how he does it here. Pass and toss.

Race 5

I'd use my top 5 in both pick exotics and hope to get any one of the 5. I'm fairly certain the winner isn't coming from the bottom 5, but have no opinion on who is the winner from the top 5, although I list them in order of probability.

Jac Spade seems to be coming to good form, which Campbell aims him at this time of the year. He stays to the class he can compete in, and he will close late off the right trip if they go enough in front of him. He has a history of winning this class when he should. I cant find anything else to play, so, he is my pick, by default. I'd need 7-2 at least to even think about trying him on top straight. 

Royal Canvas as expected, he stepped up in the care of Bourassa, who is good with his kind. He still didn't look very sound coming down the lane, but he has a lot of company in this race for that title. I can make a case for him on the trainer improve and one good start with him. He has occasionally shown flashes of speed, and if he is now sound enough to maintain that over an entire mile, he is viable with these. I list him for 2nd. 

Twin B Shadow gets Lasix for team Waxman and Cullen. Post 9 is an issue, but we've seen this group gas them up and send them, something Cullen loves to do anyway. I give him the outsiders chance based on what is in here, and the variables he brings to the table. He should effect the outcome either way, whether he gets his picture taken or not. 

Lightning Legs seems like one who could step up here. He had a troubled trip 2 back, then didn't do anything much last time. But he has shown flashes of decent form in the last couple of months, and on a good night, he is as good or better than most of these on current form. Shot. 

Scotty Mach N comes back to this circuit at a lower level, for high percentage trainer Kelly Sheppard. Post 10 is obviously trouble, but he is a 30 time winner with better form than most of these. I'd have to use him in the picks. 

Calgary Seelster somehow sucked it up and got it done 2 back, although it wasnt pretty. He tried to leave last time, but was up in the center of the track and eased home. He is living on borrowed time it seems, but these are terrible. Your call. I will continue to go against him. I don't like what I see and he draws a short price no matter how bad he looks on the track the previous time or times. 

Who Dey last time I saw him at WEG, he looked like he broke down in the stretch and past the wire. He has come back to life, as Moase is prone to get a few more out of them after he lays them off. They also regress quickly from that. I will go in other directions. 

Goodmorningmister is one I've never liked and he gradually worked his way off this circuit last year. He shows back up, but even on his best days, he had trouble sealing the deal in this class. He backed away badly in a 6500 at Rideau. I dont see any change in his ability. Pass. 

Pylater next to Cams Tux, I cant think of a lamer looking pacer currently racing at WEG. I will leave it there. 

Mammoth Jack has trouble competing for smaller cheques at the B tracks. Even though most of these are either lame, past their prime, or both, he still will have trouble doing anything about that.

Race 6

Way Outta Here if he behaves, he jogs. He has a monumental edge on these. I'm not sure post matters for one who is willing to sit last and just roll by them. That being said, Would I take 9-5 on him from this post? No, I would not. I would pass the race, which is what I will do. I will list the others I think you could use in the pick 4 if you want to try that, and of course, he is one as well. I wouldn't single him, but he has to be included. 

Escuela, Totally Ripped and P L Hercules all look possible if the 9 bombs and they get the trip they need. I dont see others as very dangerous for the win.

Race 7 

P L Jasmine has been coming late, and wide, and in the Autumn she couldn't pass those. She can beat these if she stays the same or even progresses a little. Top call. 

Connie Mach stopped badly in the Autumn last time, but if she could get a softer trip near the front, she can obviously take this fairly weak group. Contender. 

Bettys Bay has talent but isnt the soundest filly. With this weak field, she is dangerous, but I like others better. 

Northern Prima Improved a lot on the switch to Arsenault last time, which seems to happen when they move to him. But post 8 tonight, I think she might be at best looking for 4th money. I will watch though. She could get it done in the next few if she stays on the right track. For the longest time, she appeared on the wrong track. 

Lady Crazy was up for 2nd last time, but she was no threat to the winner, who is no bearcat. I like others for now. Lets see her do it again. 

Life Groove shows her wins at the B tracks, and seems like a bit player type at this track. I cant rate her higher until I see more. 

Lucky Player is very much a trip horse and hanger if asked to work for it. I didnt mind her with maidens, but she would have to catch a very soft nw2 field to go all the way. These are soft. Not soft enough the way I see it. 

On The Minute Mark broke her maiden against softer, but is in deep with these. I havent seen anything to suggest she is on the ticket at this point in this class. 

Jimmys Little Girl couldn't quite cut it with Grassroots types, and back in with nw2, she doesn't seem viable either. Post 9 tonight and she got parked out and faded last time. I can only thinks he tucks and looks for a small cheque here. 

Casimir Operaqueen might have been viable and interesting if not for post 10. I will look her over for another try, if that happens. She might be here to be sold. If so, she could end up in the hands of someone that might be able to gas her up for a couple of starts. She bears watching.

Race 8

Deweykeepumnwhy takes a big class drop and gets a new trainer tonight. Of course, that will draw the bettors attention. Since Jackie Mo has driven him, and won with him, perhaps he thinks there is something he can do with this horses issues, which have always included making breaks. He was trotting along fine last time, so it wasn't an attitude issue. He simply looked like he interfered up front. Post parade should be important here. If he can go clean, he takes this bunch on his speed and class edge. I'd need 3-1 to assume that risk. That is possible, but you never know with the bettors.

Amityville Lindy comes off 3 bad posts and now gets to drop down where he won last time. He has matured out of that horrid gait he had as a colt, and settled into a nice class mover on this circuit. Tonight he is in the right spot to pounce if the 2 isnt back to all systems go. 

Mystery Bet continues to draw poorly and start terrible. That is a hole that is hard to dig out of. He has not been as potent this year as he was last year, but he is capable enough to pounce if the top 2 choices dont perform. P Mac gets along well with him and that is a plus for sure. Shot.

Covert Operative seems to travel a lot. He has seen 5 different tracks on the page, and none of them were WEG tracks. He has also been to Yonkers this year for a good stretch. The talent is there, but he just has issues. He made a break last time and that cost him. That has always been an issue for him. Per drives tonight. That indicates to me he is test driving him for the catch driver down the road. Pass and watch him tonight. Per will turn him around and pass him to CC or Randy when the time is right.

Cracker Zack has more than enough talent to go forward off the claim for Jason Ryan. He did the exact same thing with Utopia, and Cracker Zack is probably the much stronger and faster horse in comparison. His mind issues however have always been an issue. I will have to watch him once here. He isn't facing Girl Drama and Toga Town this time. There are too many who look like they will give him a tussle if he makes the gate and wants the front, and he is prone to jumping it off if you push him like that.

Severus Hanover earned just enough last time to not fit that condition. He has to move up here, which poses a problem for him. He drops that bottom line tonight, and I will watch to see how he is for next time, when he gets in with those again. He is a fast leaver and has speed, but can be a nutcase. I want to see his current level of brains before I back him on the likely class drop next time. Pass and watch for tonight.

Kinetic King was parked out last time and jumped it off, which he is prone to do every few starts. I can overlook that on him. Its part of his DNA. I cant overlook his 1 for 24 record nor his drivers very low win percentage over the years. If he goes clean, and finds a soft spot going forward, I can watch him closely that night. Pass for me tonight.

Summit City Nate does well at the B tracks, but struggles at this track especially when he isnt in the bottom condition, which he isnt tonight. Pass . 


Hubby Number One has to move up, as he picked up 5th money last time, and also draws bad. He will have to be watched for a decent try down the road when he drops money off his card. The breaks he makes are also an issue to consider when he finds a viable spot. I watch his form for that. For tonight, no shot.

Kennel Buddy his form plus this post equals zero shot.

Race 9 

Bugger Bruiser raced awful 2 back, which was unusual for him. He turned it right back around last time, and was solid. He drops big time here and I have to assume he was sick the night he caved in from a 2 hole trip. He looks to be way too much for this group, and only Aslan on the turn around and previous talent level has a legit shot at him. If Mister X were to torture him that could soften him up. That is the only way I see him getting beat. I'd single him if I were playing the late pick 4. 

Aslan was given every chance by Zeron last time, but he just didn't pace forward. He has done that before, then turned it back around. He isn't the same horse he was a couple of years ago, but he finds an even softer spot here. He looks 2nd best to the obvious favorite, but he isnt impossible to turn the tables on him. Perhaps Jody can wake and shake him up and send him out of there. 

Mister X has been known to blast and go a very long way on the front end at the B tracks. That wont work here, but he can be a problem for Bugger Bruiser. Hopefully Phil uses his head and doesn't drive like Oliver does on him. I cant see him winning either way, but if he were to leave and stay in, he could nab a piece of the tri. 

B N Bad was 3rd 3 weeks ago in this class, but that was a very soft field, and this time its tougher, and he has the 8 hole. I could see him getting 3rd or 4th, but no better. 

Frankie Boy was NFG on Monday, and comes back on 2 days rest. For a pretty lame one like him, I cant see how that goes well. Pass. 

Uf Bettors Hanover was given every chance by Fillion last time on the class drop, but he stopped when headed. He looks to be in pretty deep against a few of the inside ones

Every Day goes from a straight 8 into this condition. Many nights, that would have been a pretty decent sideways move. Unfortunately for him, he hooks Bugger Bruiser and Aslan, and others who aren't cheap claimers but just down on their luck. Pass.

They Call Me Gordy takes the class drop, 2nd off the shelf, but he is 0 for 28 and generally a weak finisher. I dont see that getting it done with these.

Race 10 

New Standard is the type that wins races like this. He took forever to break his maiden, mostly because he never left and stayed way back, came too late and just missed. That seemed to be by design, as once he broke his maiden he was in no mans land. He doesn't seem to be able to handle nw2, and aborted that mission last time for the claimer. Drury is on the shelf, so J Mac reunites with him. He has matured into a slightly better leaver, and J Mac is gaining a rep as a leave, stay in, find a seam and get up late with mid level talents like this. I will call him for the upset. Its a stab, but a stab is what is required with this bunch. He did leave better last time, from the dreaded rail at Woodbine, then was behind a bad stopper than curtailed his momentum when it mattered. He regrouped and finished as fast as any of them, albeit giving them a big head start.

Mr Mach Jimmy was foolishly entered in the Autumn, where he was a 70-1 shot both times, drew poorly, gapped the field and paced home late when they slowed down. Hard to know what he can do with these when you race him like that. He goes to Moreau, draws better, and drops in a claimer. All of that gets him overbet for sure. He has a shot on the variables that give him a shot. I will still play him to get beat at a short price. 

Notetoself Hanover blasted out of there last time and had every chance to win it, following the chalk the rest of the way. He simply couldnt pass him late, or didnt want to. He seems to lack the killer instinct, something you see from a lot of the Big Jim's. These are pretty soft, and he avoids the one that beat him last time. He still can find a way to be 2nd or 3rd and lose this race. Trevor is on the sidelines and Saftic gets the call. I could see that making a bit of a difference for a less than motivated type like this. 

Just A Thought acts like he simply has no interest in racing. He actually refuses to turn and go to the gate most times, and even tried to stop once in a race, almost knocking down a field. When he does race, and is convinced to try, he can win, as he did 2 back. It could be either scenario tonight.

Carolina Hurricane has been sucker money for the bettors since the day he stepped on the track last year. He has earned a good buck for his owners though, and has chased some tough customers at times and not been disgraced. Every time he gets in a soft spot, like last time, he just finds a way to bomb. Last time he made the lead, then was all done by the last turn. Mid summer, he didn't even make the gate at a very short price. He gets Lasix tonight, but that looks like a desperate, kitchen sink type of move. He appears spent and used up, chasing tough customers that ground whatever ability he has down to close to zero. They say 5 claimers are generally not born, but made, and he fits that profile. This is a 15 claimer. So,he is not there yet, in my view. Post 10 is enough to make me more confident he will not get it done again tonight.

Lil Richie is the type that will win this class once this winter, as he does just enough to get lucky on the right night. Most nights, he is a bit player who finishes even. I will call him for that again tonight. He has improved, just not enough to win. He needs at least another second of finishing speed, and he hasn't shown that is there.

The Avenger won this class once, but has regressed badly since. Post 9 is enough to suggest tonight isnt the night for him to turn that around. 

Windsun Falls blasted out from the 9 hole last time and was sitting perfect the entire way. That didn't help him much, as he was gapping by the half, running in and trying to break on the last turn, and while steadied, backpeddled from there. He ran the start before that, and is lucky he isn't on the list. He looks more like a B track horse, but maybe needs a bigger track to do that, like Georgian. That doesn't help him at this point of the year, as he is in no mans land. Pass. 

Chalky won the maiden in 54, then went off the rails and was moved from Remmen to Pat, and that has not helped. He ran last time and was distanced. Pass for me. He has to show me something to go on. Pat didn't drive him last week, but does this time. I suppose he is tinkering with him. Lets see how that goes. 

Lyons Delight is a slow starting B track type. I dont see him as viable on this circuit. KD closed, he is out of luck and options but is still raceable, so they take a shot here. Judging by his Flamboro attempt, he didn't like the half mile track, which is where he belongs.