Race 1
Note that Jimmy Be Good was 5-1 last week and a contender, not 55-1 as listed in the program.
Lisvinnie has had a string of poor posts as he works
himself back down the ladder. He tried to leave last time, and was hung
out. Even worse, he had a floater in front of him, and Phil chose to go
around him, and then didn't go much more than him and gave that one
cover. To his credit, he kept pacing right to the wire. That is
something he does. He just hangs out there, and he will pace on late if
he gets a reasonable trip. There is good reason to not like a lot of
these. I can give him a shot, hoping he somehow can leave and get some
kind of trip to save a bit for the end.
Give Em Heck took the
high tag in a claiming handicap last time and he did that because he was
claimed for that price. That did him in, and he moves up this time,
hoping that a better post would appear. It didn't. He drew the 8 hole
and now faces tougher, although many of these have awful form. To his
credit, he blasted from the 10 hole, and dove into 3rd when that was
the only place to go, followed along well the entire way, followed
the winner up the cones and then just missed 3rd. He isn't the most
motivated type, as his sire would suggest he wouldn't be, but he will go
if prodded, something Henry knows how to do and did well last week. He
sticks with him. I will go to him for 2nd, with a possible upset. He just has better form
than most of these.
Drake left hard last week and
secured the 2 hole. He sat in that the entire way, following what turned
out to be the wire to wire winner. He gapped him badly in the lane, and
couldn't hold off another who appeared to be in trouble himself at the
half. That was his 2nd race in 4 days though, and he had a license to be
tired because of that. As mentioned before, he finishes 2nd and 3rd a
lot more than he wins, although he does win his share too. He has been
3rd in two tries in this class. I will call him for that again. He will
win this class once or twice this winter. I will keep him in mind for
that spot as it goes forward. His leaving ability is a plus at Woodbine.
New York Nightmare is very much the typical Bettors
Delight. He is lazy and needs a lot of motivation to try. He certainly
got that last time, as he was under the whip steadily and repeatedly
from JD the entire way, parked the mile because he doesn't leave well
and couldn't get a hole. He does pace to the wire, but he goes one
speed. He won many races last year, but that was when he was a colt and
he could get away with just relying on having more speed than his
rivals. Hard to see a scenario where he wins this race.
Jimmy Be Good
blasted out last time and could have had the pocket, but didn't want it.
He has always been better if covered up much of the mile, and he was
all done on the last turn, beating none of them. Yet another in this
race that was claimed in good form, but raced bad the night of the
claim, and has gone backwards for new connections. He also takes a drop
here, but draws the 9 hole. He was a fairly solid 15 before he was
jacked up and claimed. I will wait to see if he races well off the pace
tonight and possibly go to him if he draws better next week.
Chosen Hombre has turned out to be an awful claim. As
such, he now drops below where he was haltered, just 3 races into his
stay in Fellows barn. He left horrible from the rail last time, and that
is his pattern as a rule, and certainly his last 4 on the page. He was
having trouble keeping up to the half, so Fillion showed him the whip
and pulled the plugs early. They were going plenty, so he had a license
to gap a bit. He did close that gap, and then weaved through traffic in
the lane to finish with some pace, although no threat to the top 3 or 4.
He is 5 for 56 the last two seasons, and at 10%, he is hard to back
with suspect current form and a style that isn't suited to Woodbine
anyway. He is not very sound as a rule, and post parade is somewhat
important with him.
Sierra Madre has raced well the 3 times at this level
when he drew well. As such, in addition to his fast time following a
kamikaze type around in a gapped field last race, he will take money. He
also is locked on the right line and steppy lame the entire way. He is 1
for 26 this year, and always has been a low percentage winner with
most, if not all his wins coming at the B tracks. I don't think he's ever
won on this circuit. I like others better.
Waltzking Hanover was claimed 4 back for 25k, and raced
bad that night. He had been through a few barns at that stage, and his
form was already turning in the wrong direction. He has continued to
head down the ladder and go off form as Cullen has raced him, and even
though Cullen is prone to move first up with every horse, he dropped him
in class and buried him last time, trying to give him a brave trip. In
spite of that, he stopped in the lane and could barely pass a completely
spent one for 9th last time. As such, he goes even lower tonight. He
looks to be about 5 lengths off whatever will win this race on time
alone. He is headed for an 8 claimer at the rate he is going.
Machapelo has been double digits in this class in two
straight starts, and last time had the rail, got away dead last, was
gapping under urging and finished with mild pace. He is very hard to
back based on how he has been for a couple of months.
Race 2
Southwind Alice had the 8 hole at Flamboro last time.
Nuff said on that race. She wired them the time before that from the 5
hole at London, with a RUS race sandwiched in between. Phil drives
tonight. He knows her and has won with her at this track before. She did
have nice finish last time at Flamboro, and seems to have good form.
Shot if she gets off the car good and can get a similar trip, but closer
to the pace. I'd say the longer stretch helps her more than hurts her, as long as she is in with these types.
Alacrity was a nice colt, and made good money for Eddie
Green. He bombed out last year, as often happens to Green's when they
are raced the way they are at 2. Budd has had him for a while now, laid
him off for the summer, and brought him back last time at Flamboro. He
comes back tagged this time, and in the summer, he won in 55, then
bombed out and was put on the shelf. Budd is a tricky guy, and you have
to be careful leaving him off a pick 5. He can turn them on a dime.
Zeron is back aboard for the WEG drive. That is a plus. I'd have to use
him in the pick 5, as one of many and hope to get one of them.
Shoot the Thrill is 4 races off the claim and now back
where he started in terms of classification. He is the only one to take
the high tag, so he gets the far outside start. He also has the fastest
line on the page, by far. He is not a fast leaver as a rule, so,
thinking he could gun the 10 hole and get to the top or settled in the
top 3 is not really probable. Can he rough it and avoid traffic trouble
here? He could. He does bear in pretty bad in that last turn, so that is
a further reason to suspect he wont be rolling wide there either. He
does trot right to the wire, and will pick most of these up. He could
just end up being too late for the win. For the short price, I will
play the likelihood he gets beat and take some iffy longer shot options.
Its a risk/reward play. I list him 3rd. Use him, don't use him, your call. I will probably add him if I have enough room.
Liseberg has kept it together for 3 starts and a
qualifier now, leaving out sharp last time, sitting a loose but
following pocket, trotting right to the wire, albeit not able to go with
the top 3. She is coming along and showed she has a bit more overall
speed last time. I can see her in the mix and certainly could take this,
considering the buttery soft nature of this field. No Girl Drama or
Warrawee Proton to face this time.
Boots N Hearts has banked 267k
in her lifetime, mostly racing at the B's. As far as I recall, Team
Wall has had her the entire way until Fellows got her. She didn't do
much last time, but did come a back half with consecutive 28 and change
quarters in her first WEG start in a few weeks. She shows leaving at
Flamboro and if she could do that here from the more inside spot, and
get that soft trip again, combined with the decent back half, she has a
longshot chance. Can we count on Cullen not panicking and staying in,
instead of pulling first up and running at the leader? Nope, we can't
count on that, but we can hope.
See R Chin Win is a half sister
to Ken Kan Win, and just like him, she has some speed, but also the
issues that come with that family. She also comes off two bad posts at
Flamboro, and is 3 weeks plus out of the box. She locks on a line and
bears in horrible at Flamboro on every turn, and thus, she should be
better over Woodbine. She also bagged 2nd last winter at Woodbine, but that was when there was a brief stay with Dagfin. Not the case here.
Mixed variables that sometimes lead to a longer shot like this stepping
up in a race like this. I'd use her in the pick 5 as a hopeful
sweetener.
Townline Momma was taken off Cirasoula last winter when
she was rolling along, and immediately went bad for Trevor and Moreau.
They did get a win out of her, but she went bad again and was laid off.
She was trained back down and raced by Trevor's wife, dived in for 7500
with no takers or performance, and then moved to Moreau and raced for
8500 last time, with him adding the trotting hopples for that
engagement. That kept her trotting. It didn't keep her from going
forward and sideways with her head cranked at the same time. She picked up a few late,
because they came home in 32. I'd have to think she is going to end up
in Buffalo or Monticello before the New Year.
Toga Town draws
bad, and has a short shelf life soundness wise, which he showed serious
signs of wear and tear last time in the lane. Fillion held him together
and he hitched and hiked his way home. Too many strikes against him
tonight for me. He can beat me if that proves not to effect him.
Easy Virtue adds lasix for her 2nd try with these after
shipping in. From the looks of it, she needs it. Her last quarters
consistently leave something to be desired. Based on her overall speed
and her lifetime performance, its hard to see how she is an A track
contender, even with that bump. She can leave well. That gives her every
chance if a few blow up and/or wipe a few out behind her in so doing. I cant count on that to happen. Pass.
C
R Dynamite raced exactly to his odds last time, and he is a 9yo with
42k in lifetime earnings, with a record of 2:01 at KD, taken last year. I
cant see any scenario that gets this horse on the ticket. His trainer is 0 for 33.
Race 3
Wild and Crazy Guy left well enough last time, but was
unlucky enough to be following a longshot gapper with a first up hanger
beside him, pinning him in until the top of the lane. When out and free
he flew up late, and looked to have 2nd, but ended up dead heating that
position. He is likely to bring a big price here and I think he is the
value play in the race. Randy gets the best out of him of anybody, assuming
he actually shows up tonight and drives him. If he doesn't, I reserve
the right to change my pick and rate him a bit lower.
Rubber Duck has been hanging around at this level as he
matures into a Preferred trotter. P Mac drops him for the 2, who is the
likely chalk, and so, he picks up CC, who has done well with him before
and is good with trotters, and knowing when to move them to get the most
out of them. I could see him getting it done at a price if he gets the
right trip. Shot.
Windsun Revenge went a huge trip on the
engine the entire way in the Breeders Crown, repelling off Resolve on
the turn when he ran at him, only to just give it up late. He hung
tough, and now shows back up 3 weeks later. He should be rested, but
that trip--plus the travel back and forth for one who doesn't make that
kind of trek--likely could take its toll. I think he brings a short
price tonight, and I will list him 3rd, getting picked up by others.
Intimidate left out, and tripped out last time, then
exploded on them like his old self. Is he back? Can he keep the train
rolling? I'm not sold. He has consistency problems at this stage in his
life, and has been not the soundest horse his entire life. These are
deeper than the ones he beat. He was very much the benefit of what was
going on behind him, and that is not likely to repeat itself. I will go to others. I would be inclined to use him in the pick 5 if I can short another race a bit.
Etruscan Hanover got away slowly last time, gapped out as
a big favorite, then pulled first up and hung, only to come on again
late and tie for 2nd. I suppose he is always possible with his talent
level, but I will go to others. His driver, plus his inconsistency, make
him a hard play for me most nights.
Fearless Man shows back up on the scene, with a solid qualifier in which nothing of note was behind him relative to what he will face tonight, and thus, he is being pointed to a big winter campaign, where he makes his most money. The Preferred pays the same in the winter as it does in the summer, but it goes slower and is not usually as deep week to week. I expect him to be raced easy tonight, but his time will come this winter, likely by early December.
Youre Majestic is very sharp right now, and she is hard to fault, but she has never faced this type of trotter and is a filly going against salty, older and classy males. She will have to show me she can step up and keep up. Lets see how she does. I pass on her chances tonight.
Il Sogno Dream went to the rail in the BC final,
stayed in, and did little. He isn't the most motivated type, but Trevor
gets after him to keep going. I like others better in this spot. He will
have to show me he is getting sharp, like he did last winter for a
while.
Race 4
Alexas Hope took back early last time, and had a lot of
traffic to negotiate. She is habitually a slow leaver, so from the
inside, it might get her a shot of gaining a couple of positions by
being inside those that will take back. Last time, she was behind one
that was going the wrong way, so she had to use a lot of energy to get
around that one, then picked up horrible cover on another stopper who
made her go 3 wide around her on the turn, and while Ryan rounded the
turn to only be 2 wide for a bit, she had to come out again to make her
move. All of that caused her to be a length off the top 2. She very
easily could have won that race. She didn't, and thus, she will be a
better price this week. I said last week I would wait to see a
turnaround. I saw it. Top call tonight.
Darktwistedfantasy had an interesting trip last week.
She left out but others were faster, so she tucked to a 3 hole. She
stayed in, which turned out to be a good move, as she had 2nd over on
the eventual winners back, but Drury ducked back in, as that one hung on
the turn. That turned out to be the wrong move, as while she looked
like she might get a seam, she didn't and the winner went forward
anyway. That is racing. She is possible again this time. One of many.
Shes a Maniac is on a 3 race roll, and she can get like
that, especially in the winter when they slow down a bit and soften up.
Last time, she left out hard, let the logical one go, but that one let
another go and Henry lost the trip he thought he would get. So, he
pulled and parked the entire last turn and right to the wire. She
appeared to be hanging at that stage, but that has always been her way.
She will struggle on the turn, and then straighten up and keep pacing to
the wire. Her sires trait, and his sires trait to some extent. She is a
player tonight, but is due to get beat. The price probably shortens up
tonight. I will pick others. I'd use her in the pick 4, because she is viable enough and could bag one more.
Watt a Funny Face tackled some bearcats last time (relative to these), and
they ground her into submission. Obviously, those were way too tough for
her. She won off a perfect pocket trip the time before with similar to
these. I don't think its any secret or you have to be an Einstien to
figure out Plante is blasting and sending this mare tonight. I can see
her getting run at here and I will say she effects the outcome but gets
picked up by a few, if not many. She is improved, but maybe another who is a solid 8 but not as potent a 10/12. She's not impossible if somehow she gets a 2nd quarter breather.
Donna Party takes the highest tag and that gets her the
10 hole. That is not good for one who likes control and will run into at
least one inside her, likely 2 or 3, who aren't going to let her have
it. It makes for an interesting race, and she certainly was pretty good
last time, but, its hard to back her knowing she is giving them 5 or 6
lengths at least off the gate. Only way I see her getting her picture
taken tonight is a crazy speed battle she lays off and finding a live
helmet to follow on the last turn. That is a lot to hope for. I wont. Pass and play others.
Lady Jen drew badly last time and had a long trip. She
raced okay, but I'm of the opinion she is a much better 8 than 10 or
10/12, and I like others better here. Pass on her for me.
Fire Watch is a classic in between type. She can leave
enough, but not enough to outleave the ones that really want the front.
That gets her the trip she got last time. She has to find a traffic flow
that carries her. Last week, she went to follow outside, that one was gapping
badly, so Cullen switched back inside. She was crawling over Drury's
helmet when sitting in, but like many that do that, when you show her
open road, she isn't so lively. Very much a Real Artist trait, which is
what her dam is. She had a clear lane to go forward the rest of the way
but only paced with the pack. Another that is probably an 8, not 10 or
12, and maybe even better off at the B tracks. Pass for me.
Total Knockout takes a higher tag, so she draws outside
again. I don't get that, but its not for me to judge. Its for me to rate
chances. Outside post. Pass. Inside post, shot if she tries that next
time.
D G Nickabocker ships back in for her
breeder/trainer/owner. 8 hole last time at Flamboro. Not much shot when
you get that. She won when she drew better at that track. She also has
low earnings and low starts. Post 9 tonight. I will watch. Not dangerous
tonight from what I see of who is inside her.
Gia Diamond has had a lot of chances to win at WEG, and
has failed every time. She has one big brush, but she flattens out
sharply when that is spent. That is the definition of the classic B
track horse who looks great in with those, but cant translate to the A
track. She is one of those. Her November 5th line is indicative of what you will get from her. Pass.
Race 5
Par Intended was claimed by Johnson and comes right back
for the same tag but gets a decent post 5 in spite of taking a higher
tag than the ones inside of him. He is hard to knock off his form and
determined last quarter speed most weeks. He is likely to be a short
price tonight, in the 8-5 range, and while he is logical, he doesn't win
every time. I will list him on top, and obviously, you would be
rolling serious dice to leave him out of the picks. He is no cinch, but I
couldn't find one to put ahead of him. Multiple pick 4 choices in this race.
Panedictine isn't very sound, but most of Bako's look like
cripples parading then race well despite it. I look the other way with
his when I see it from them. I wouldn't claim one, but I can certainly
bet them. He has an upset chance from the rail start, if the flow and
racing room gods are on his side tonight.
Lets Wait and See skipped last week, and comes back here
with a better post and a new driver. He is dangerous enough on those
variables, although Phil isn't any better than Ryan in my view, and this
horse gets away mid pack to near the back no matter what post he draws.
He has a shot, but needs a lot of trip luck to get there first.
Lonewolf
Currier was solid off the claim for Montini last week, but got beat at
4-5 by one who he meets again. He is reasonable enough, but I can see
him going down and would roll the dice again him and use a longer shot
in his spot in the picks. He finds ways to get beat, and always has.
Jenkins Creek wired
them last time, but moves up here as Moase has another one for that
class. I'm not sold this guy can last with a better bunch. I will play
others. He led home a bunch of hangers last time. This group has a few that pace forward late, and don't hang.
Needlecrest
has been double digits his last 4, and to me, seems like he is a decent
cheque getter at this class but could probably win race 1 tonight if he
was in that. He cant leave at all, but last time was 4th over following
a 4-5 shot who went forward late and challenged for the win, while this
one got left in his wake and outpaced the second rung of the pack, many
of whom have dropped out of this class. Not for me until I see him move
down a level.
Highland Tartan was claimed by Pereira last
time, his 2nd claim in 3 outings, and he moves up here off a 2nd place
finish where he was sent out hard by Roy, but hung, then ducked in and
paced by some very winded ones late for 2nd money, no threat to the
winner who he meets again and others who look better than both of them.
Pass.
A Boy Named Suuzz takes the high tag and draws the short
end of that post draw stick. I like others better. In a straight 20 from
the middle of the car I would consider him viable at a price. Not
tonight for me. He likes to lead, not pass.
York Seelster
intermittently races great and terrible, with the common theme that he
loves to cut it and wing it on the engine. He wont get that trip here,
and I will wait another day on him. He will find the sweet spot at some
stage. Not tonight. The way he coughed it up last time suggests he might
have had some sickness and has missed 3 weeks. Trip around tonight and lets see how he finishes.
RACE 6
As usual,
this is the type of race we see all the time where you have to look the
other way on a lot of them that classic handicapping tells you to avoid
them. Something has to win this race. That is the only known we have to
work with here. That horse doesn't have to be much stock or have great form to do it. Start there.
True Muscle drops out of the Autumn, where she was
overmatched, although she had a post that compromised her 2 back and she
closed up well enough to be in the mix late. She has beaten better than
many of these, but also has a tricky gait which gets her some nights.
She made the Grassroots final, and of course, that has to be considered
against many in here who wouldn't even make the stakes payments to race
in those. I'd have to use her in the pick 4 on the chance she puts it
together tonight. J Mac is a longshot machine, and that is another factor.
Deuce Deuce Deuce has been off 6 weeks, made a late break
last time, and comes back with no qualifiers but adding lasix. He is
hard to like, but reasonable enough to think he can step up in a pick 4
scenario. Usable but I wouldn't play him with a win ticket. His record
before the break and layoff was better than most of these and he is
competitive in this class if he finishes better and stays trotting.
Withahearttomatch loses J Mac to True Muscle, but picks
up Trevor. Tomato/tomato. Can never discount anything Larry Walker
trains, as he can find things and make adjustments. He used to bring in a
lot of longer shots with just this type back in the day, and why cant
he still do that? She is very well bred, but didn't race at 2 or 3. Last
time, she left out, followed along, gapping a bit as J Mac pulled the
plugs, appeared to be going all she can go in the lane but still lost
positions in a 32 second last quarter. Tough call. She could just be not
much stock. So are the rest of most of these. I could have said a lot
of those things about the 2 horse last week. Your call. I'd probably use
her while avoiding the two more "logical" ones outside of her. A spot
for a spot, and higher odds.
Ado Duharas
shows 2 racelines on the page, both times he
ran and took himself out of it. Last time, on the lead, Mario tapped him
to go forward and he said "eff you" back and galloped. He is a non
trier. He stayed well back of Fearless Man last time and trotted evenly,
which he probably can always do, and likely what got him those 7 wins
at the B tracks. If you ask him to work, he will decide to canter. I'm
sure Mario has learned what works with him in the two trips behind him.
That is a plus in his favor.
Mostinterestingman
has one lifetime win, and is also dropping out of the Autumn, where he
was over his head to win it but good enough to pick up shares. Dupuis
lists himself. If that holds, I will pass on him. He isn't a driver and
driver will matter in this race. If he changes that and picks up a pro
driver, the horse parades well and is on the bit, I'd change my tone and
use him in the pick 4. Sadly, the pick 4 decision has to come two races
earlier, so, the driver decision is the key. He adds a pro, use him.
Secretcode Hanover is one Vanderkamp has to be careful
with, as he throws in extra steps most of the way, especially that last
turn, even with the added stability of the trotting hopples. As such, he
cant blast out and gets hung like he did leaving last time. That
catches up to him at the end, and he was passed by a low talent rat last
time in a 32 second last quarter. I will go elsewhere, and go against
my rule of always using Vanderkamp in every pick 4 so he doesn't beat me
with his savvy.
Little Stuie is 2 for 36 the last two years,
and sporting the donut this year. He draws the 9 hole here, and that
usually is death to a type that cant win races with every chance. He was
flying late last time, but flying is relative to the quicksand the ones
in front of him were trotting in a 32 second staggerfest. He had every
chance 2 back on the engine but stopped that night too. I hate his
breeding and he races right to it. Pass for me. It has to be something else here.
Im Wanted
looks the part, and has ability, but is a shit
for brains and will run at any point. He also has lameness issues, which
were apparent on the last turn before he blew up. One of these nights
he will show up sound, behave, get the right trip and blow up the tote
board. His brother Cracker Jack has done that a few times too, although
he is proven and this one is nothing to this stage in his almost 5yo
life. Post 1 on a windy Woodbine November night, I will watch again, and
hope he doesn't make me pay like the 2 horse did last week.
Shestherealthing
made a great pre race appearance in the parade last week, but like a
fool, I didn't play her and her huge odds, because I know she can be a
basket case and also her lines were horrid by anyones measure. She was
rank on the engine until covered up, but then made me pay for not taking
a risk on her. This week, she is likely to take money and revert back
to her bad behaving ways. She had a lot of trouble passing a leader who
wanted to get beat last time. I will go to others. These types rarely
double up or put two together. That is why they have the record they do.
Her Mr Chin dam leads me to think she comes by her crazy honestly.
Archery
comes in with 2 gate breaks his last 4 starts, and two wins in the
other two. And the 10 hole tonight as he comes back to this circuit. He
picks up Saftic, who I would think would have him off the gate to stay
trotting, and conservative to the last turn to keep him in good form
with a shot to close late and be ready for next week and a better draw.
Pass for tonight. Prospect down the road if he shows me enough.
RACE 7
Cams Lucky Sam goes 2nd start for Carmen, after drawing
the 10 hole and sent on a mission that became impossible. He self
destructed, not in 5 seconds, but in about 2 minutes. He draws better
here, and has both a fast record and several wins under his belt. Big shot.
Dreamfair Mesa gets some class relief tonight, and also
Randy back, who seems to get the most out of him. He is very variable in
terms of how he paces and how interested he is on any given night. For
the right price, and considering the nature of this field, I'd use him
in the pick 4 and give him a shot to win the race outright as a bet. He
has gate speed and he needs to start better. Not to lead persay, but to
at least be in 2nd or 3rd over position. He cant swoop them all like he did for his last win most nights.
Late
Night was a promising colt at one stage, taking on NYSS types and also
some other bearcats. That was abandoned awhile ago, but now he has
confidence and some wins, and also moves out of claimers and nw of
conditions to tackle nw3. Is this the sweet spot for him? I'm willing to
say it could be, and would use him in the pick 4. Brealey's bunch have
started to heat up again. That is the plus that makes me add him.
Mach
Messier cut the mile again last time, and lasted longer to a pretty
decent colt. It was a more favorable night to try that, but I maintain
he is better following up close than fending off challenges. That cheque
makes him move up..before winning. Bit player tonight with the chance
to develop into a win shot player in December if he keeps on track and
learns to accept a trip at this level.
Dreamy Fella is another who gets class relief tonight and
needs it. The jury is still out on him, and he might be another of
Weller's that he is tinkering with before he tags him again and jams him
3 times for the purse money and the claim when they wont let him steal
anymore. We have seen that Jones Shooter movie already the last couple
of weeks. I will go elsewhere tonight, but I watch.
Jack Rackham
has tried various styles and classes, and none have added up to a win,
or even much close to it. I think Montini would be very happy if they wrote a
4yo 20 claimer in the New Year. He is probably worth more than 15 plus
at this stage, but these seem beyond his reach to me.
Tango Star has 2 lifetime wins and has been sucker money
many times in his life. That isn't his fault, but its indicative that he
is generally overrated and has to move up here while not performing
well a step below. Toss for me.
Migrate Blue Chip gets to drop back down, but based on
his last race, and last turn issues, I cannot go near him. I've never
liked him anyway and he has been overbet his entire life. He is almost 5
and has 2 lifetime wins.
The Illuminator is a hanging rat. I can toss him with complete confidence that he is not dangerous in this spot, for openers.
Redonkulous No shot. Too many variables to matter. Just know he is.
Race 8
Dragin the Wagon takes the class drop and gets the relief
he needs. Those were pretty much Preferred types he tried to trot with
last time, and he simply isn't one of those, although he gave it the
college try. He didn't completely cave, and that is a good sign. He can
leave hard and trots smooth, willingly. This is a good spot for him.
Catch
the Dream took the big class drop last time, but blew up at the gate,
looking like he struck himself and that was that. He comes right back
and I can forgive that race and view him as viable if he brings a more
reasonable price. He has some talented ones inside him though, and this
wont be the cakewalk that last race would have been if he had been ready
to trot the entire mile.
Cash for Gold has never been the most consistent type,
and he also starts poorly then falls into tough and sometimes impossible
trips. He also can trot a storm in the lane, as he is a big rangy
trotter with speed, if.......they go enough in front of him and he finds
the right flow. He beat these 2 back. Shot, but the price has to be right. I'd think 9-2 is about right.
Zeus Lightning trotted a decent mile for 2nd last time at
this level, well back of the winner, and generally, they were a lot
softer and not nearly as deep as this bunch. He seems to just come
around a few times a year, and that might be the case now. I like
others, but he wouldn't shock me.
Olympic Son moves up off a win. He hasn't been sharp for
awhile. Reid is gone south, Boyd takes over, but I have to see more from
him. Pass tonight. He is capable, but others look more viable.
Its Huw
You Know made two mistakes in a row and is a bad behaving one. He is
good when he doesn't get up to his antics. He will have to show me he is
stopping that behavior. I don't see it. I gave him the benefit of the
doubt for last time. Enough of that from me.
White Becomes Her drops in class, but she is ofer on the
year and has trouble when there is more contention in a race like this. I
don't think this is the right spot for her tonight. Pass. She drops her
bottom line and gets to take a massive class drop next time to the
bottom class. I expect her to be buried and take 5th at best.
Murmur
Hanover went to Flamboro to steal money last time and wired them. Back
here, he folds like a suitcase if pushed. These are tougher than the
ones he couldn't even fend off. He is the ML choice. I wouldn't even bet
him at 20-1 in with this bunch.
Ramas Last Son
is a bit player type unless he goes low enough, and gets the 9 hole
again. I like others and will take my chances post plus class equals
wait another day.
Race 9
Never Been Told was first time lasix last time, and
wired the bottom level claimer. By many. Good enough for me. He has a
big shot. The class rise only matters if the ones who race in the class
above have that extra class. Most of these currently do not show it. They are borderline 8's. He beat those.
Outlaw Gunpowder drops back in to the class he fits well.
I mentioned the last couple of weeks I thought he was over his head. He
is now back where his grinding style can wear down the ones he grinds.
However, he might be tired chasing those that were beyond his means.
That happens. I call him 2nd because of that.
Cundalini has raced well twice at this level if you toss
his 10 hole race in between those. He isn't my top choice, but he has a
shot if the ones I pick don't show up or don't get the trip they need.
Er
Quinn got the right trip last time, but as usual, he was wonky coming
to the wire. He held together, and he can be dangerous when he gets
things to go his way, like last time. I will play that they don't this
time, and he gets beat.
Cobalt Man the wild card in the bunch. He has been going
in the wrong direction for awhile now. Last time he had trip excuse, but
no excuse to hang in the lane when the ones in front of him appeared
spent, yet he could not pass any of those. He drops again, and the combo
of Fillion and Moreau plus the drop will get him bet again, maybe even
the favorite. I will go against him again. He has been a failure for a
long time. One of those Rock N Rolls with the no try attitude you hear
about. He made 400k when he was younger, but he is fading fast as a
viable A track racehorse.
Vegas Rich is an interesting addition to the mix. Gibson
had him his entire life, but Mike Stoikopolous has him now, and he has a
history of gradually sorting out an underperformer like this. I will
watch closely as he brings him here for a try at A track competition.
Not tonight as a play.
Intended Style
parked the entire mile last time, but to his credit, he kept at it and
didn't completely cave. He draws the 10 hole here. That is enough to do
him in in my book.
Gunpowder doesnt seem to have a style that can produce a
win at this level. He can make the tri coming late if others cave and
backpeddle. I cant see him winning as is.
Who Doesnt was claimed for 8, and to me, that is what he is. Any class rise above that takes away the shot he has. Pass.
Light Foot Rd draws outside for horrifically low percentage trainer Fuller. No shot.
Race 10
Home James was blasted last time in his 2nd try at the
Autumn. So much for that. He does show signs, and Trevor can make a
difference here. I will list him top call, but I have to have my price.
That price is the ML, 8-1.
Sharky Shark tried the nw2 off his lone race, a win in
the maidens. He came a big back half and looks like a player in a spot
with not many who are that dangerous looking.
East End was moved on the last turn last time, but looked
like he wanted to run again, which is what he does. He held together,
but its anyone's guess which one he will be here. I'd have to see him
parade to make a guess, and it would just be a guess, as he only does it
at very high speed on the turn. Use him, but he can go either way. He
is no lock.
Jrs Big Buddy proved me wrong last week by leaving hard
and sticking with the top pair all the way. I will eat crow on that
comment. He is possible, but he has to show it wasn't a fluke.
Shadowfall missed last week and I thought that was a good
spot for him. I had him listed 2nd there. These seem a bit tougher for
him to handle, and being that he can be a cheater, I expect Vanderkamp
to bury him and race him easy. I go to others. He is possible, but
others look more viable.
Putnams Legacy won 2
races at 2, but none since in 30 tries. Hard to knock his 53 mile last
time, but that was tagging along to a horse that went in 51. Does he
have hidden form, or did he just go fast and will regress to
competition? At the end of the day, he backed away in the lane and lost
lengths. That is what they pay for. Not how fast you go, but who you
beat. Minor shot, but its hard to back him unless he is bombs away, like
say, 30-1.
Red John is a 2yo who beat maidens but now draws outside and faces nw2. That is a recipe that leads to a phrase called pass.
King
of Sports got around clean with Phil, but loses him to the 7. Hopples
back on. They were off for a reason. You only pull hopples if you think
that helps a horse that needs help. I will watch.
Century Churchill continues to be a bit player now that
he has finally got the maiden monkey off his back. He now has the no
mans land tag on his chest. Prove me wrong.
Winning
Drive has a pedigree, form and connections that make it easy for me to
toss him. His slow leaving style also is not a plus.
Saturday, November 19, 2016
WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 19, 2016
RACE 1
Miss Babe Delight goes to Moreau, draws better and gets Trevor. It worked Thursday night, Friday night, and I don't see why it doesn't work here. Good enough for me.
Katies Beach gets to drop back in class and picks up McNair, who is red hot and driving as good as he ever has in the last week. She is right there behind my top choice.
Stylish Beachwhere comes right back to the class and foes she took down last week. She has a lot of talent, but soundness issues to match. Post parade will be key. I could make a case that she needs to be on your pick 5 ticket, but I'd have to see her parade first.
Hot Spot Hanover keeps Fillion, and is obviously sharp. But all good runs have to end. I can see that she will go the other way at some point. I will try to be ahead of the curve and call it before it happens. I list her off the ticket.
Double T Grrr isnt the sharpest knife in the drawer, but she has ability and is learning the game after not racing at all at 2 and hardly at 3. I could see her being viable at some point at this track. Longshot chance tonight, but others look too tough for her at this stage.
Misty De Vie finds these a lot tougher than the ones she one stretch moved below. I think she has hit the wall, at least for now. Pass.
Dixie Lullaby is a bit of a slow leaver, and that compounds her problems in this class and this track. I like others in this spot. Her day will come again this winter.
Wasaga Beach comes in off a layoff, a mediocre qualifier, a barn change, a track change, and suspect form. She might develop into something playable at this track. I will just watch this time.
Blueberry Will does her best work with control. I dont see how she gets that here. Pass.
RACE 2
Gravitator tuned up to stay sharp, looks as good as most of these. She stacks up good enough and will bring a decent price. I will take my shot with her.
Temple Ruins is in the mix off her lines. One of many who can get it done.
Princess Aurora avoids her stablemate and looks like the one. But she draws the rail at Woodbine. I will play against her and the likely poor start.
Magic Presto has talent and speed, and a pretty nice record and bank account. She isn't impossible. She was better earlier in the year though. I like others a bit more.
Winter Sweet Frost won the Superfinal and has been very consisten the entire season, but that has been a long season. I like others better for the ticket.
Cameron Hill doesnt look up to this bunch, and starting to the outside makes it easier to discount her. Over her head in my view.
Southwind Tesla qualified with trotting hopples and tries them in a real race for the first time. She will have to be seen. These are way tougher than she has shown she can handle.
Myammie Drama is a maiden taking on winners, and thus, I cant see how she can handle the top wrung here. Pass.
Cool Cates looks like a mediocre Sire Stakes filly who is taking on the bearcats for the big dough. And has post 9. Nuff said.
Blinded by Lindy appears to be in the wrong race. They write the maiden races on Mondays and Thursdays.
RACE 3
Delightful Hill is the one I go to for the upset. She has seemed to be heading towards top form. Its a trip race. She needs one. If she gets it, she is right there with anything in this.
Sandbetweenurtoes is razor sharp and just missed last time. She is hard to go against, but I listed her 2nd and went for the higher anticipated price of that one.
Imagine Dragon mowed them down late, and is certainly viable. I like others better, but she would be no shock. She doesn't always show the hot form she forked over last time.
Rock N Roll Xample picks up Sears tonight, and while she is racing great, she needed to trip out to win this class. She doesn't do enough for me on her own to take her over my top 2.
Waasmula isnt doing enough to beat them. I like others better and could see her missing the super.
Ms Mac N Cheese has not been herself for a while now. She would have to show me some form change to get me back on board. I'm sure that will come. Not tonight for me. These arent in any way soft.
Party in Rome not with this bunch. Pass.
RACE 4
Pretty contentious race. I've been following my top choice for a few weeks. This looks like the spot.
Carracci Hanover top call on form and post improvement.
The Rev 2nd back and he is more likely to be dangerous. He has trouble winning. I list him for 2nd.
Cool Rock likely too late again.
Asap Hanover doesnt do enough to take my top 2. Could get 3rd.
Mr Carrotts a bit tougher than he can usually handle.
Vegas Rocks not with these.
Velocity Driven tough for him to handle these on current form.
Race 5
Rockette like what I see from her. She can upset them. Pace went against her last time.
Caviart Ally Sharp at the right time. Short price leads me to play another who seems as good.
Someomensomewhere consistent, but not raced to win last time. Shot if things go her way.
Idyllic Beach long season and she has a lot of hard miles behind her.
The rest are bit players and dont worry me.
Race 6
Surprise Hanover drops down but his form is good, the type of form he had a couple of years ago. He draws the right type of post for the style he likes that gets him the trip he likes to go forward off of. If he gets that, he has a longshot chance to pay the type of price I am looking for in this race.
Reel has started to find his legs and might be a good price play tonight. I list him 2nd, but he could easily win this. He needs to maintain his smoothness late in the mile. He has improved in that respect.
Darcee N takes the class drop I have been waiting for. I still think he might have to go one rung lower, but he is in the mix with this bunch. If he trips out, he could get up late.
Prescotts Hope will get play on the class drop and 3rd back off the layoff. I am not sold he is what he was. I will go against him and his likely short price tonight.
I dont like what I see from any of the others to think they will be the winner.
Race 7
International Moni love what I saw from him on the track last time. Big strong colt who gets better each week.
Snowstorm Hanover was solid last week and can get to the top and get a trip or cut his own mile. He has a shot if things go his way.
Jake seems to be putting it together late in the season. Just another who can step up if things go his way.
Andy M comes late with authority if any of my top 3, or all of them, happen to blow up or not show up.
RACE 8
Blayde Hanover was dominant last week and I expect him to handle this bunch with the better post and move off the gate right to the top or a quick retake if need be.
Always a Hotshot moves to Mayotte, and draws outside. He is likely to come late for 2nd or 3rd.
Daylight Rush blasted last time, let one go, and came back out late to be 2nd best. He can do that again, but others might outleave him and force him to go wider and a longer trip. Not in this spot for me.
Flaherty got the parking ticket last time but slid into a hole. He didn't totally give it up. He is another who has raced a long season this year. I dont prefer him tonight, but he is likely to come around again. Watching. He has the chance to make the ticket if things go his way.
Maserati Seelster was large last time. These are way tougher. He will have to show me he can handle them.
Dalton Did It will have to do a lot more than he has ever showed me to make the ticket with this bunch. I will watch.
Electric Western not with these.
Weatherly wired them last time, but this field is deeper and grittier. Pass.
RACE 9
Downbytheseaside like him to turn the tables on the bearcat in what appears to be a 2 horse race.
Huntsville hard to go against, but if his foe gains control, he could outsprint him home. I will play it that way.
Miso Fast has the ability to follow along and be there if either or both of the top 2 ones fail.
RACE 10
Neils Golden Girl didnt get the trip she liked last time. I will play her to reverse that here, in a race where it was hard to pick one out of the rest. Lukewarm call.
Sass shot but the rail start worries me.
Marquis Volo is coming around, but post hurts here.
A Rod Hall which one of his personalities shows up?
Tony Soprano post 10 could be trouble for him. Back of the bus?
Little Red Chev another day when she draws better. Not tonight for me.
Azucar shipper, has to be seen. Doesn't look good enough for these.
RACE 11
Nirvana Seelster should boss these around based on how he races and the post he has drawn. No Easy Lover Hanover to contend with here.
Vegas Vacation will have to be seen, considering his issues. I am inclined to think he isnt winning against a few that have decent form.
Mach Code takes on a few tougher ones here, but he has improved. Ticket material, but I like others better for the win.
Traceur Hanover wired them last time, but these are tougher and he isnt so bold when he meets level competition.
American Virgin drops out of the Preferred, but he has not looked good on the track for a while. I will wait for a sign he turns that around. He has the talent.
Continual Hanover was struggling on the turns last time and these are tough for him as is. Pass.
RACE 12
Champagne Phil comes back to this track at a level he can excel. He is certainly a contender and has a history of leaving hard when he is spotted right. Top call for the upset.
Ideal Jet 2nd off the layoff, with the big class drop, the good post, and Trevor. Sign me up.
Lovedancinwithyou blew up the tote board 3 back, but hasnt been as dangerous with a bit better at Flamboro. He comes back here a level up. These are fairly soft. I could see him getting a big chunk. Minor shot to beat them all if he trips out.
Mach on the Beach comes back on short notice, and draws slightly worse, but is now in the care of Moreau, who had him last year as well. He has a shot with the improved trainer angle.
Bigtown Hero have not liked what I have seen from this very fast horse who has a lot of issues. Sucker money off a good qualifier, where you can get away with a lot of things you cant when the judges and security are on duty.
Bali ships in from Rideau, but hooks a bunch that look a lot tougher than he usually meets, and doesnt beat anyway. Maybe one level down if he shows he can keep up with these.
Counter Strike earned a good buck in Alberta beating up on also rans and taking big dollar stake finals because he was a sub par 3yo. Now that he is east, its tougher and he has to find a level. I would think that level is at leas the one below this, maybe. Not this one.
Spinfiniti Is a shadow of the horse that Adams gassed up for about 6 months. He hasn't won a race this year, and I'd think he needs to go lower, at a bare minimum.
Arrived Late has always struggled at this track. I like others a lot better. Pass.
Miss Babe Delight goes to Moreau, draws better and gets Trevor. It worked Thursday night, Friday night, and I don't see why it doesn't work here. Good enough for me.
Katies Beach gets to drop back in class and picks up McNair, who is red hot and driving as good as he ever has in the last week. She is right there behind my top choice.
Stylish Beachwhere comes right back to the class and foes she took down last week. She has a lot of talent, but soundness issues to match. Post parade will be key. I could make a case that she needs to be on your pick 5 ticket, but I'd have to see her parade first.
Hot Spot Hanover keeps Fillion, and is obviously sharp. But all good runs have to end. I can see that she will go the other way at some point. I will try to be ahead of the curve and call it before it happens. I list her off the ticket.
Double T Grrr isnt the sharpest knife in the drawer, but she has ability and is learning the game after not racing at all at 2 and hardly at 3. I could see her being viable at some point at this track. Longshot chance tonight, but others look too tough for her at this stage.
Misty De Vie finds these a lot tougher than the ones she one stretch moved below. I think she has hit the wall, at least for now. Pass.
Dixie Lullaby is a bit of a slow leaver, and that compounds her problems in this class and this track. I like others in this spot. Her day will come again this winter.
Wasaga Beach comes in off a layoff, a mediocre qualifier, a barn change, a track change, and suspect form. She might develop into something playable at this track. I will just watch this time.
Blueberry Will does her best work with control. I dont see how she gets that here. Pass.
RACE 2
Gravitator tuned up to stay sharp, looks as good as most of these. She stacks up good enough and will bring a decent price. I will take my shot with her.
Temple Ruins is in the mix off her lines. One of many who can get it done.
Princess Aurora avoids her stablemate and looks like the one. But she draws the rail at Woodbine. I will play against her and the likely poor start.
Magic Presto has talent and speed, and a pretty nice record and bank account. She isn't impossible. She was better earlier in the year though. I like others a bit more.
Winter Sweet Frost won the Superfinal and has been very consisten the entire season, but that has been a long season. I like others better for the ticket.
Cameron Hill doesnt look up to this bunch, and starting to the outside makes it easier to discount her. Over her head in my view.
Southwind Tesla qualified with trotting hopples and tries them in a real race for the first time. She will have to be seen. These are way tougher than she has shown she can handle.
Myammie Drama is a maiden taking on winners, and thus, I cant see how she can handle the top wrung here. Pass.
Cool Cates looks like a mediocre Sire Stakes filly who is taking on the bearcats for the big dough. And has post 9. Nuff said.
Blinded by Lindy appears to be in the wrong race. They write the maiden races on Mondays and Thursdays.
RACE 3
Delightful Hill is the one I go to for the upset. She has seemed to be heading towards top form. Its a trip race. She needs one. If she gets it, she is right there with anything in this.
Sandbetweenurtoes is razor sharp and just missed last time. She is hard to go against, but I listed her 2nd and went for the higher anticipated price of that one.
Imagine Dragon mowed them down late, and is certainly viable. I like others better, but she would be no shock. She doesn't always show the hot form she forked over last time.
Rock N Roll Xample picks up Sears tonight, and while she is racing great, she needed to trip out to win this class. She doesn't do enough for me on her own to take her over my top 2.
Waasmula isnt doing enough to beat them. I like others better and could see her missing the super.
Ms Mac N Cheese has not been herself for a while now. She would have to show me some form change to get me back on board. I'm sure that will come. Not tonight for me. These arent in any way soft.
Party in Rome not with this bunch. Pass.
RACE 4
Pretty contentious race. I've been following my top choice for a few weeks. This looks like the spot.
Carracci Hanover top call on form and post improvement.
The Rev 2nd back and he is more likely to be dangerous. He has trouble winning. I list him for 2nd.
Cool Rock likely too late again.
Asap Hanover doesnt do enough to take my top 2. Could get 3rd.
Mr Carrotts a bit tougher than he can usually handle.
Vegas Rocks not with these.
Velocity Driven tough for him to handle these on current form.
Race 5
Rockette like what I see from her. She can upset them. Pace went against her last time.
Caviart Ally Sharp at the right time. Short price leads me to play another who seems as good.
Someomensomewhere consistent, but not raced to win last time. Shot if things go her way.
Idyllic Beach long season and she has a lot of hard miles behind her.
The rest are bit players and dont worry me.
Race 6
Surprise Hanover drops down but his form is good, the type of form he had a couple of years ago. He draws the right type of post for the style he likes that gets him the trip he likes to go forward off of. If he gets that, he has a longshot chance to pay the type of price I am looking for in this race.
Reel has started to find his legs and might be a good price play tonight. I list him 2nd, but he could easily win this. He needs to maintain his smoothness late in the mile. He has improved in that respect.
Darcee N takes the class drop I have been waiting for. I still think he might have to go one rung lower, but he is in the mix with this bunch. If he trips out, he could get up late.
Prescotts Hope will get play on the class drop and 3rd back off the layoff. I am not sold he is what he was. I will go against him and his likely short price tonight.
I dont like what I see from any of the others to think they will be the winner.
Race 7
International Moni love what I saw from him on the track last time. Big strong colt who gets better each week.
Snowstorm Hanover was solid last week and can get to the top and get a trip or cut his own mile. He has a shot if things go his way.
Jake seems to be putting it together late in the season. Just another who can step up if things go his way.
Andy M comes late with authority if any of my top 3, or all of them, happen to blow up or not show up.
RACE 8
Blayde Hanover was dominant last week and I expect him to handle this bunch with the better post and move off the gate right to the top or a quick retake if need be.
Always a Hotshot moves to Mayotte, and draws outside. He is likely to come late for 2nd or 3rd.
Daylight Rush blasted last time, let one go, and came back out late to be 2nd best. He can do that again, but others might outleave him and force him to go wider and a longer trip. Not in this spot for me.
Flaherty got the parking ticket last time but slid into a hole. He didn't totally give it up. He is another who has raced a long season this year. I dont prefer him tonight, but he is likely to come around again. Watching. He has the chance to make the ticket if things go his way.
Maserati Seelster was large last time. These are way tougher. He will have to show me he can handle them.
Dalton Did It will have to do a lot more than he has ever showed me to make the ticket with this bunch. I will watch.
Electric Western not with these.
Weatherly wired them last time, but this field is deeper and grittier. Pass.
RACE 9
Downbytheseaside like him to turn the tables on the bearcat in what appears to be a 2 horse race.
Huntsville hard to go against, but if his foe gains control, he could outsprint him home. I will play it that way.
Miso Fast has the ability to follow along and be there if either or both of the top 2 ones fail.
RACE 10
Neils Golden Girl didnt get the trip she liked last time. I will play her to reverse that here, in a race where it was hard to pick one out of the rest. Lukewarm call.
Sass shot but the rail start worries me.
Marquis Volo is coming around, but post hurts here.
A Rod Hall which one of his personalities shows up?
Tony Soprano post 10 could be trouble for him. Back of the bus?
Little Red Chev another day when she draws better. Not tonight for me.
Azucar shipper, has to be seen. Doesn't look good enough for these.
RACE 11
Nirvana Seelster should boss these around based on how he races and the post he has drawn. No Easy Lover Hanover to contend with here.
Vegas Vacation will have to be seen, considering his issues. I am inclined to think he isnt winning against a few that have decent form.
Mach Code takes on a few tougher ones here, but he has improved. Ticket material, but I like others better for the win.
Traceur Hanover wired them last time, but these are tougher and he isnt so bold when he meets level competition.
American Virgin drops out of the Preferred, but he has not looked good on the track for a while. I will wait for a sign he turns that around. He has the talent.
Continual Hanover was struggling on the turns last time and these are tough for him as is. Pass.
RACE 12
Champagne Phil comes back to this track at a level he can excel. He is certainly a contender and has a history of leaving hard when he is spotted right. Top call for the upset.
Ideal Jet 2nd off the layoff, with the big class drop, the good post, and Trevor. Sign me up.
Lovedancinwithyou blew up the tote board 3 back, but hasnt been as dangerous with a bit better at Flamboro. He comes back here a level up. These are fairly soft. I could see him getting a big chunk. Minor shot to beat them all if he trips out.
Mach on the Beach comes back on short notice, and draws slightly worse, but is now in the care of Moreau, who had him last year as well. He has a shot with the improved trainer angle.
Bigtown Hero have not liked what I have seen from this very fast horse who has a lot of issues. Sucker money off a good qualifier, where you can get away with a lot of things you cant when the judges and security are on duty.
Bali ships in from Rideau, but hooks a bunch that look a lot tougher than he usually meets, and doesnt beat anyway. Maybe one level down if he shows he can keep up with these.
Counter Strike earned a good buck in Alberta beating up on also rans and taking big dollar stake finals because he was a sub par 3yo. Now that he is east, its tougher and he has to find a level. I would think that level is at leas the one below this, maybe. Not this one.
Spinfiniti Is a shadow of the horse that Adams gassed up for about 6 months. He hasn't won a race this year, and I'd think he needs to go lower, at a bare minimum.
Arrived Late has always struggled at this track. I like others a lot better. Pass.
WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 18, 2016
Race 1
VICTORIA SEMALU in a race where you look for an angle when many seem ordinary, but also possible, this one goes to Moreau and picks up Fillion. That is good enough for me. She isnt far off taking them anyway, and she is a pretty solid leaver. Post 6 is the best post at Woodbine and the front has been golden so far. That is where she wants to be, likes to be, and is likely to be. Top call on that angle.
LIGHTS GO OUT is not the mare she was a couple of years ago, and she has settled into a class mover. The drop and pop type who finds herself in the drop position tonight. She is hard to discount when she can get to the top, be brave, and boss these types around. Her last few have been poor, and as such, I will go with another. She could prove me wrong. I just dont like what I see currently.
BIG TSUNAMI has certainly responded and stepped up to the training of Jim Ritchie, who is solid and knows how to move one up. She just missed to Selling The Dream, who appears headed to the Preferred in due time. Like many Mister Big's, she just finds a way to get beat in any class. She is a contender, but I will have to go with something that shows more desire to win when the money is on the line.
REGAL LUCK took back early last time, had excess cover, but wasnt doing much on her own other than pace with the pack. She wins every now and then, but most nights, she just hunts for cheques. I will go with not tonight and go elsewhere.
DONTBRUISECARRIE overall is a pretty nice race mare. She does enough overall to earn a decent buck, and be competitive. But, she doesn't do anything exceptionally well. She isn't fast off the gate, she isnt gritty enough to pull first up and grind down a leader, like she attempted last time, and she wont vault off cover and blow by the pack. Thus, she hardly wins. I will keep that opinion unless she proves me wrong. Pass.
AINTSHEASWEETIE ships in and draws post 7 with Davis. I was inclined to think she was a horse to use in the pick 5, but there are too many strikes against her here and there are more than enough contenders to think she could beat them all. She has responded to Carmen, and I will watch her for a better spot down the road. She wasn't the soundest mare in the past, but she has lasted nonetheless.
AINSLEYNOELLE won the level below this, but hasn't found a way or trip since trying these. Another class mover who probably needs to move back down. She isn't impossible, but there are too many others who are more likely. Pass.
REGALLY READY post 9 and I expect Zeron to take back to last and hunt for a small cheque, and race her next week if she draws better.
NAUGHTY LADY B moves up and draws bad off a perfect trip where she beat many who would be huge longshots in this race. Total pass.
ST LADS PENNY LANE was an early scratch.
Race 2
MAJOR MUSCLE is a major hot potato in the post parade, and that can cost her at times. Jackie Mo has been on her now awhile, and maybe has learned to settle her a bit. He got her a cheap half two back and that was enough. She almost held off the hot filly she meets again in the last start. I will call her to turn the tables tonight and open up enough on the last turn to get there first. If she parades like a crazy hot mare again, all bets are off. She has to relax better to be tactical now that she is up in class and she can't rely on pure speed to win.
SAFEKEEPING was given a top steer to just get up late last time, her first try with this level of competition. It didn't look like she would get there, but she wore down the leader. I thought maybe she is getting a shade tired, and as she moves up, she is more vulnerable to go down. I will play against her this night as likely to do that.
MOONLIGHT COCKTAIL has been going in the wrong direction lately, and finished poorly in her last two in particular. As with most of Bax's, I expect her to turn it around one night. Not tonight for me, but I continue to watch her and see where her issues might be, and if she seems better in the post parade one night.
ITS ALL ABOUT SAM was a decent Sire Stakes filly last year and banked 58k. Like many of those, that took its toll on her and she paid the price this year. She got lasix last time but it didn't seem to matter. She is 2nd time lasix tonight. Some like that angle. I do on the right horse. She did trot a 3rd quarter in 27.3, and that is something. I will watch her tonight and see if she can trot a more complete mile and be closing or keeping up near the end. Pass on the betting front tonight. She is possible down the road if she progresses.
HURRICANE HAZEL is 3 for 47 lifetime, and now coming off a sick scratch. She often winds up on the last turn and looks like she is going to get it done, but seems to remember who her sire is at the tote board and slows down. I cannot back her with what I've seen so far. On the right night, at the right price, I will, and have caught her before doing that. Tonight doesn't seem to be that night.
GIANT MUSCLES his post, plus his form, plus his slow starts and that he has yet to crack 57 add up to a toss for me.
WORLD CLASS IZZY is one I've never liked on her terrible gait and less than inspiring desire to beat horses. At this level, she looks about 2 seconds short of anything that is contentious anyway. I toss her with confidence. She is better off at the B tracks.
WINDSONG MAGIC is out.
Race 3
GEORGIES POCKETS has toyed with these twice, and is 11 for 19 lifetime, mostly racing in Stakes races. That is very impressive by anyone's measure. He doesn't seem to have any holes, and with this bunch, he is very hard to go against. I wont. Probably 1-5, and of course, that is not win bet territory. I'd single him in the picks.
INNOVATIVE FORCE blasted out of there from the 10 hole last time and cut the mile with the confidence of a 2-1 shot. He hung in there and only got beat because of the bearcat he meets again. That was the mile of his brief life, and I can go back to him and hope he puts two together, hoping it was not a fluke. I cant see why Phil wouldn't try that again.
ROSE RUN RUDI is all over the map in terms of how he races and performs. That leads me to think he is not a bad one to list up in the top 3. These finals sometimes have strange race tactics employed by the drivers, and give hope to those like this one who just need things to shake out their way. He has won at this track in 56.3. He isn't impossible if the chalk blows up.
JLS BAD MOON RISIN is a very slow starter, even from better posts. Post 1 for a trotter at Woodbine is not ideal, and he is probably looking at coming late for a share, like last time. He couldn't even pick up a 114-1 longshot last time. So, if the chalk blows up, he is hard to like as the one. He has banked 70k on 2 lifetime wins, neither of which came at the A track. Probably a good London horse, or a 15 claimer once this series is over.
MONOPOLY caught the softer split last time and hung in for 3rd. He could do that again if things go his way, but I cant see any better for him, even if the fave blows up. He is about 4th best on the pecking order here, and doesn't look to move up the corporate ladder.
UNITED BI gunned out, controlled the tempo and then came a slow back half to win 2 back in leg 1. Last week, he had to follow, got locked in, and never got out. Post 8 hurts him here. I will pass because of that. No friends in the final, and he is likely to get hung the mile if he tries to leave. If he takes back, there will be a lot of traffic in his way. I cant see him tonight.
THE LAND SHARK can leave fast and carry that a bit, but seems short when they come to the payoff. Fillion chose his stablemate over him. That is good enough for me. I don't like him anyway. Not in this spot with this bunch. Another day this winter, maybe.
MISSION MAN tripped out last time from the 10 hole, but he was in the much softer split and I doubt he gets the chance to get that trip here. He doesn't show as much pop when he is asked to work for it. Post hurts him tonight. Pass.
WINDSUN MISSILE was foolishly overbet last week and never trotted a step. Per drives from post 10 and I cant see any way he makes the ticket.
MOONSTAR MISSION blew up last time, and looked pretty iffy coming to the wire when he won the previous time. He is basically a bust at this stage. I will go elsewhere until I see some consistency and soundness, and that he can put those starts back to back.
Race 4
MISS JONES SHOOTER as expected, was ready to rock and roll last time, and could have pulled the pocket at any point. She drew off like one who is likely to reel off as many as they let Weller have in this class. She could even draw the claim tonight. I dont see anything that can go with her in this bunch.Weller tinkered with her while he raced her above her head. Now that he has her sorted out, he will cash in. Being there are a few class droppers in here, I would think 2-1 or higher is reasonable, and I'd want that to play her. She is the now horse.
CHARMING HILL draws much better here, and she is a fast leaver who likes to sit and move as late as possible. These are her people, and if anything beats the fave here, its her. She looks 2nd best to me, but stranger things have happened. Because they are claimers, I'd have to use her as a backup to the choice for the pick 4 and 5.
GLORY JEAN ships west with high earnings and a pile of wins. She has no choice but to go right into the claimers. I suppose she is possible, but I want to see one with her racing in overall faster fractions. That can do those types in. 57 over Charlottetown is a solid mile, but even some 5 claimers can do that there. It doesn't always translate like we used to think it did. Watching.
BRING ME DIAMONDS made the gold Superfinal, and wasnt embarrassed in that against a pretty tough group. She made a move for the top last time, but was picked up by two others who are legit condition horses. Its a curious move to tag her here. She takes the higher tag, and gets post 9. I think she is ripe to go down. I will list her off the ticket. She bears watching though. She has enough talent on the right night, for the right price, to be played in this class.
JUMP JIVE AND JAM is another dropping out of that condition race and taking the higher tag. That doesn't do her any favors, and she has shown, without control and an easy trip, she will not finish. Not tonight for me.
RADAR TRAP has put 30k away, but she doesn't seem to be able to handle conditioned types, so she is tagged tonight. She has to do a lot more to handle the top 2 or 3 in here. I will watch her. She looks good for 4th or 5th money if she stays on the pylons and comes out late.
MORE THAN MANY drops into a claimer after she couldn't keep up with condition types, as she isn't a maiden anymore. Post 8, plus her last quarters of late, no thanks. Lets see her find a level.
BOOZER BRUISER was wildly inconsistent as a 2yo, sometimes winning, other times walking from the turn home. She has not fared well this year, and off her last two, cannot be used. I respect Lou Eft enough to know he will get her right and where she needs to be. This doesn't look like that spot. He tries BLINKERS TO OPEN. Lets see if that helps.
QUEENOFHEARTS couldn't win a maiden at this track and was well back of the same ones she meets again, plus some new ones that have more talent than her anyway. Pass and toss. She looks more like a London candidate if they don't want to shut her down and wait for Northville in the spring.
BONNIES GEM doesn't seem capable of handling winners at this track, now, and maybe even down the road. Breaking her maiden at KD was probably not the best long term move for her. Since they have taken to opening that class up to nw15k life, I could see her back in that spot. Not in this one. She is overmatched.
SING LIKE AN ANGEL might be viable at the bottom, but these appear too tough for her. She is finding her way in this province, but the fields are larger, tougher, and she cant dominate them with her speed and breeding like she did back home. When challenged, she hangs late. As she did last time at Flamboro.
REGAL ROXY swims with the sharks tonight, not the goldfish. Pass. She has never shown me she is anything more than a cheap claimer, albeit a pretty good and sharp one now.
BAROCKY
won at the bottom, but against these, with the pressure they can put on
you, she either runs or folds. No thanks. I've never liked her and
unless she is at the bottom, and even then, I don't fear her in the
least.
MISS COCO LUCK draws the outside, and we have seen what that means for her chances as one who needs to be out close and then follow. Another night, or a class drop and better post. Not tonight.
TWIN B INSPIRING is out.
Race 7
TWOMACSONEMACH is one of those with a lot of talent and as many issues to go with it. He showed that last winter at Pompano, and even here he has done the same. Last time, he kept it together and won his leg. I will play his risky form and put him on top, for what should be a price with the obvious two taking the bulk of the money.
ARCHANGEL THREE didn't look very sound parading last time, but he certainly comes to play when he goes behind the gate. He is a slow starter but in the mix if they battle in front of him. I list him 2nd based on that, but he could pass them all if the right things happen.
THINK ON IT has cut it twice, won both legs, and now has 4 in a row. Hard to not like him. But, he has also had it his own way and not really been pushed. That wont be the case tonight. I can see him getting beat, but staying on for the ticket.
P L JACKSON is tough not to put in the top 3, and I almost did. He is just a nice, consistent colt who is improving as he goes. But, he just doesn't pace right to the wire like some of the others at this point. He could make me regret leaving him off the ticket, but others show just a shade more for now.
SENIOR K went a long trip last time from the 9 hole and gave it up late. He draws better here and will take heavy action. I can see that mile hurting him, as he obviously is not very sound. I will go against him and leave him off the ticket.
MACH POWER was back to running in really bad in the turns last time, and appeared to crash and bang with Mayfield Duke, who wasn't steering well beside him. I cant go near this one when he is like that. I will watch for some sign Carmen has gotten him sorted out. That appeared to be the case when he got him, but he has regressed again. Pass.
MAYFIELD DUKE has not impressed me with his on track appearance of late. He was borderline dangerous to steer last time, and that has not been the first time. Pass.
SURE FIRED BET is 2 for 27 and has the 9 hole. He could have been triactor material if he had drawn better. He still could sneak into 3rd, but I will go to others because he drew bad. Harding gets them to go. So, there is that. Another day and spot, he might be a play coming soon.
SPEEDLING post plus form means a pass for me.
BUGATTI is a no play with post 10. Nuff said.
Race 8
MANOFMANYIMAGES is very good right now, and has been for a few weeks. He avoids the top two from last time, both of who were top stakes horses during the last couple of years on their best day. He was right there with them. His slow starts put him at the mercy of the pace and traffic. Post 1 doesn't help that cause, but I will stick with him.
HONOR ABOVE ALL starts slow and digs himself a hole. I will go to another who will bring value underneath my top choice. He is dangerous enough though.
Note: I had picked Amoreuse Hanover for 2nd, but she was scratched. That moved him up to my 2nd choice.
UNICUM BI will have to show me he can compete at this level and with Per driving, that is enough of a reason to watch him for now. He is likely to develop into a good one, but I'm not sold he is that close to that yet. Maybe by February.
MERCHANDISER will be handled by Peck tonight. He isn't the worst guy out there, but he isn't a professional driver in a race where driver will matter. He made a sharp move going down the pike on them the last time he won with him. That worked then. They wont let him try that again. That was then. Tonight, I go elsewhere. He is also a bit off behind. So, that is also a factor in me going to others.
ALLIES GIFT had the rail last time at Flamboro, got the cheap half, and wired them. Those variables aren't in play here. Pass.
MUSCLE AVE draws bad and is only a marginal type in this class anyway. Pass.
WALK TO FOLSOM has come into his own as an aged trotter, something you see every now and then. He doesn't meet LMC Mass Oak or Tymal Tempest here though. That is certainly something to consider. Lets see if he can go forward and get a piece. I'm not certain he is ready for that test.
WHOSGOINGTOCATCHUS has a solid record at the Bs controlling the pace. Post 10 here. So much for that.
Race 9
STONEBRIDGE QUEST can leave like a shot and carry that speed a long way. I will call her tonight for the minor upset. I like what I see from her in a lot of ways. These are tough, but she seems up to it.
RUBIS PRESCOTT takes the big class drop, draws inside, which doesn't help many at this track but can help one like her with that big burst off the wings, and gets JJ who has a history of doing well with her. She is a contender when all that is summed up.
9 LINDWOOD BEACHGIRL draws bad and has been facing some tough customers all year. I can see her coming late for a share, but maybe not raced as tough as need be to win it.
4 SELLING THE DREAM had the 10 hole and just went around last time. Of course she looks tough back with a better post, but I am not certain she is a cinch. I will lay off her this time. I think she is headed to the Preferred by next spring the latest, but she isn't there yet. I wouldn't take the short odds she might bring tonight.
BAD AS LEADER takes the big class drop here, and obviously, she will take money. I'm not sold she isn't just one of many in here. I will go against her and the likely short price.
D GS PESQUERO was her old self last time, leaving hard, and finishing well when she finally got out, which was way too late. She is another who could upset the apple cart here.
REQUEST FOR PAROLE got cat and moused by Trevor last time, but still paced hard to the wire. I give her credit for that. She doesn't generally hold her form for long. I like a few others ahead of her here, and these are much tougher, top to bottom, than last time.
P L HURRICANE comes in off 2 wins, but moves up again. These are beyond her ability as I see it. I will pass on her.
POP GOES THEWEASEL has not returned from a layoff with good form. A couple more and she can drop down. Lets see how she goes before she gets there. No shot tonight with some very sharp ones.
Race 10
MAJESTIC PRESENCE got picked off late last time, but raced great in both legs. She is the logical play here. I will stick with her.
DEVILS ADVOCATE is and has always been a bad behaver. But, when she does behave, she is as good as any of these. I will take a shot and list her 2nd. She could easily win this. Or....be distanced when the gate speeds away. She is just that type.
MAGICAL VALENTINE seemed like she was well meant last time, but stopped on the front. I can give her a pass on that, since she has stepped up before and these aren't deep. Shot.
TRUMPETS tripped out last time, but isn't likely to get that trip this time. She has certainly improved, but is a bit player without post advantage.
WHAMBAMTHANKUMAAM ran early last time, but recovered to finish in the picture. She was 2nd before that. She has soundness issues, but if she has it together tonight, she is a player. Post parade is important here.
STONEBRIDGE PEACE came along well for Henseley on the barn change. She can certainly take these if she continues to trot like that. She has showed flashes of promise. Its a toss up which one of her multiple personalities shows up tonight.
ONE TOO MANY gets trips that indicate she should win, but she comes up short. I cant play her based on what I've seen.
MAJESTIC MISTRESS upset them last time, but she draws bad here and generally isn't that dangerous. I like others better.
I WANT KANDY is one I cant go near, and wouldn't even if she had drawn well. She didn't anyway. She has a lot of issues.
DAYLINER is 2 for 27 life, and doesn't look dangerous in this company. Too many going better than her at this stage.
Race 11
CALL IT COURAGE draws better here and based on her past ability to leave hard, she could be dangerous in a race with most who are tough to take. Upset call.
WILDCAT BEAUTY drops in class and draws well. She also knows how to lose when she looks like she is a player. I will go elsewhere. She has a history of being sucker money.
SHOW SOME LEG draws poorly and will have to rough it or pick up live cover. Live cover implies something live to follow. Hard to see who that can be in with this bunch. I think she gets there too late if she even shows up, which she doesnt always do. I go to others. She does have better form than most. Not because hers is good, because theirs is horrid.
KISS ME OR NOT goes back to Carmen, but from what I've seen from her, even Lou Pena couldn't make her go right now. She has no interest and appears very sore. She can prove me wrong. I think this is a desperate move that wont work, although it has on this change before.
Balance not listed in order. They are all equally impossible to like.
ARTISTIC MADISON appears completely used up and spent. No thanks.
HONOR ROLL even with many who are hard to like, she draws the 10 hole and is a no shot type, and might even be with a better post. B track horse in my view.
LITTLE MISS SPORTY is impossible to use based on those lines. Nuff said.
LEGAL PROCESS comes in off a poor qualifier, a layoff, and bad lines. I will watch once. Weller is dangerous, but, I cant back this one.
DOCS HOLLYWOOD will have to show a lot more before she can be backed. She did zip off the layoff. Pass.
VICTORIA SEMALU in a race where you look for an angle when many seem ordinary, but also possible, this one goes to Moreau and picks up Fillion. That is good enough for me. She isnt far off taking them anyway, and she is a pretty solid leaver. Post 6 is the best post at Woodbine and the front has been golden so far. That is where she wants to be, likes to be, and is likely to be. Top call on that angle.
LIGHTS GO OUT is not the mare she was a couple of years ago, and she has settled into a class mover. The drop and pop type who finds herself in the drop position tonight. She is hard to discount when she can get to the top, be brave, and boss these types around. Her last few have been poor, and as such, I will go with another. She could prove me wrong. I just dont like what I see currently.
BIG TSUNAMI has certainly responded and stepped up to the training of Jim Ritchie, who is solid and knows how to move one up. She just missed to Selling The Dream, who appears headed to the Preferred in due time. Like many Mister Big's, she just finds a way to get beat in any class. She is a contender, but I will have to go with something that shows more desire to win when the money is on the line.
REGAL LUCK took back early last time, had excess cover, but wasnt doing much on her own other than pace with the pack. She wins every now and then, but most nights, she just hunts for cheques. I will go with not tonight and go elsewhere.
DONTBRUISECARRIE overall is a pretty nice race mare. She does enough overall to earn a decent buck, and be competitive. But, she doesn't do anything exceptionally well. She isn't fast off the gate, she isnt gritty enough to pull first up and grind down a leader, like she attempted last time, and she wont vault off cover and blow by the pack. Thus, she hardly wins. I will keep that opinion unless she proves me wrong. Pass.
AINTSHEASWEETIE ships in and draws post 7 with Davis. I was inclined to think she was a horse to use in the pick 5, but there are too many strikes against her here and there are more than enough contenders to think she could beat them all. She has responded to Carmen, and I will watch her for a better spot down the road. She wasn't the soundest mare in the past, but she has lasted nonetheless.
AINSLEYNOELLE won the level below this, but hasn't found a way or trip since trying these. Another class mover who probably needs to move back down. She isn't impossible, but there are too many others who are more likely. Pass.
REGALLY READY post 9 and I expect Zeron to take back to last and hunt for a small cheque, and race her next week if she draws better.
NAUGHTY LADY B moves up and draws bad off a perfect trip where she beat many who would be huge longshots in this race. Total pass.
ST LADS PENNY LANE was an early scratch.
Race 2
MAJOR MUSCLE is a major hot potato in the post parade, and that can cost her at times. Jackie Mo has been on her now awhile, and maybe has learned to settle her a bit. He got her a cheap half two back and that was enough. She almost held off the hot filly she meets again in the last start. I will call her to turn the tables tonight and open up enough on the last turn to get there first. If she parades like a crazy hot mare again, all bets are off. She has to relax better to be tactical now that she is up in class and she can't rely on pure speed to win.
SAFEKEEPING was given a top steer to just get up late last time, her first try with this level of competition. It didn't look like she would get there, but she wore down the leader. I thought maybe she is getting a shade tired, and as she moves up, she is more vulnerable to go down. I will play against her this night as likely to do that.
MOONLIGHT COCKTAIL has been going in the wrong direction lately, and finished poorly in her last two in particular. As with most of Bax's, I expect her to turn it around one night. Not tonight for me, but I continue to watch her and see where her issues might be, and if she seems better in the post parade one night.
ITS ALL ABOUT SAM was a decent Sire Stakes filly last year and banked 58k. Like many of those, that took its toll on her and she paid the price this year. She got lasix last time but it didn't seem to matter. She is 2nd time lasix tonight. Some like that angle. I do on the right horse. She did trot a 3rd quarter in 27.3, and that is something. I will watch her tonight and see if she can trot a more complete mile and be closing or keeping up near the end. Pass on the betting front tonight. She is possible down the road if she progresses.
HURRICANE HAZEL is 3 for 47 lifetime, and now coming off a sick scratch. She often winds up on the last turn and looks like she is going to get it done, but seems to remember who her sire is at the tote board and slows down. I cannot back her with what I've seen so far. On the right night, at the right price, I will, and have caught her before doing that. Tonight doesn't seem to be that night.
GIANT MUSCLES his post, plus his form, plus his slow starts and that he has yet to crack 57 add up to a toss for me.
WORLD CLASS IZZY is one I've never liked on her terrible gait and less than inspiring desire to beat horses. At this level, she looks about 2 seconds short of anything that is contentious anyway. I toss her with confidence. She is better off at the B tracks.
WINDSONG MAGIC is out.
Race 3
GEORGIES POCKETS has toyed with these twice, and is 11 for 19 lifetime, mostly racing in Stakes races. That is very impressive by anyone's measure. He doesn't seem to have any holes, and with this bunch, he is very hard to go against. I wont. Probably 1-5, and of course, that is not win bet territory. I'd single him in the picks.
INNOVATIVE FORCE blasted out of there from the 10 hole last time and cut the mile with the confidence of a 2-1 shot. He hung in there and only got beat because of the bearcat he meets again. That was the mile of his brief life, and I can go back to him and hope he puts two together, hoping it was not a fluke. I cant see why Phil wouldn't try that again.
ROSE RUN RUDI is all over the map in terms of how he races and performs. That leads me to think he is not a bad one to list up in the top 3. These finals sometimes have strange race tactics employed by the drivers, and give hope to those like this one who just need things to shake out their way. He has won at this track in 56.3. He isn't impossible if the chalk blows up.
JLS BAD MOON RISIN is a very slow starter, even from better posts. Post 1 for a trotter at Woodbine is not ideal, and he is probably looking at coming late for a share, like last time. He couldn't even pick up a 114-1 longshot last time. So, if the chalk blows up, he is hard to like as the one. He has banked 70k on 2 lifetime wins, neither of which came at the A track. Probably a good London horse, or a 15 claimer once this series is over.
MONOPOLY caught the softer split last time and hung in for 3rd. He could do that again if things go his way, but I cant see any better for him, even if the fave blows up. He is about 4th best on the pecking order here, and doesn't look to move up the corporate ladder.
UNITED BI gunned out, controlled the tempo and then came a slow back half to win 2 back in leg 1. Last week, he had to follow, got locked in, and never got out. Post 8 hurts him here. I will pass because of that. No friends in the final, and he is likely to get hung the mile if he tries to leave. If he takes back, there will be a lot of traffic in his way. I cant see him tonight.
THE LAND SHARK can leave fast and carry that a bit, but seems short when they come to the payoff. Fillion chose his stablemate over him. That is good enough for me. I don't like him anyway. Not in this spot with this bunch. Another day this winter, maybe.
MISSION MAN tripped out last time from the 10 hole, but he was in the much softer split and I doubt he gets the chance to get that trip here. He doesn't show as much pop when he is asked to work for it. Post hurts him tonight. Pass.
WINDSUN MISSILE was foolishly overbet last week and never trotted a step. Per drives from post 10 and I cant see any way he makes the ticket.
MOONSTAR MISSION blew up last time, and looked pretty iffy coming to the wire when he won the previous time. He is basically a bust at this stage. I will go elsewhere until I see some consistency and soundness, and that he can put those starts back to back.
Race 4
MISS JONES SHOOTER as expected, was ready to rock and roll last time, and could have pulled the pocket at any point. She drew off like one who is likely to reel off as many as they let Weller have in this class. She could even draw the claim tonight. I dont see anything that can go with her in this bunch.Weller tinkered with her while he raced her above her head. Now that he has her sorted out, he will cash in. Being there are a few class droppers in here, I would think 2-1 or higher is reasonable, and I'd want that to play her. She is the now horse.
CHARMING HILL draws much better here, and she is a fast leaver who likes to sit and move as late as possible. These are her people, and if anything beats the fave here, its her. She looks 2nd best to me, but stranger things have happened. Because they are claimers, I'd have to use her as a backup to the choice for the pick 4 and 5.
GLORY JEAN ships west with high earnings and a pile of wins. She has no choice but to go right into the claimers. I suppose she is possible, but I want to see one with her racing in overall faster fractions. That can do those types in. 57 over Charlottetown is a solid mile, but even some 5 claimers can do that there. It doesn't always translate like we used to think it did. Watching.
BRING ME DIAMONDS made the gold Superfinal, and wasnt embarrassed in that against a pretty tough group. She made a move for the top last time, but was picked up by two others who are legit condition horses. Its a curious move to tag her here. She takes the higher tag, and gets post 9. I think she is ripe to go down. I will list her off the ticket. She bears watching though. She has enough talent on the right night, for the right price, to be played in this class.
JUMP JIVE AND JAM is another dropping out of that condition race and taking the higher tag. That doesn't do her any favors, and she has shown, without control and an easy trip, she will not finish. Not tonight for me.
RADAR TRAP has put 30k away, but she doesn't seem to be able to handle conditioned types, so she is tagged tonight. She has to do a lot more to handle the top 2 or 3 in here. I will watch her. She looks good for 4th or 5th money if she stays on the pylons and comes out late.
MORE THAN MANY drops into a claimer after she couldn't keep up with condition types, as she isn't a maiden anymore. Post 8, plus her last quarters of late, no thanks. Lets see her find a level.
BOOZER BRUISER was wildly inconsistent as a 2yo, sometimes winning, other times walking from the turn home. She has not fared well this year, and off her last two, cannot be used. I respect Lou Eft enough to know he will get her right and where she needs to be. This doesn't look like that spot. He tries BLINKERS TO OPEN. Lets see if that helps.
QUEENOFHEARTS couldn't win a maiden at this track and was well back of the same ones she meets again, plus some new ones that have more talent than her anyway. Pass and toss. She looks more like a London candidate if they don't want to shut her down and wait for Northville in the spring.
BONNIES GEM doesn't seem capable of handling winners at this track, now, and maybe even down the road. Breaking her maiden at KD was probably not the best long term move for her. Since they have taken to opening that class up to nw15k life, I could see her back in that spot. Not in this one. She is overmatched.
Race 5
MAPLELEA has found the aged mares a lot tougher than the
younger stakes ones she beat up on last year. She has worked her way
down to this bunch, but still has not been able to swoop them like she
did last year. Eventually, she is going to put it together, She still
tries and can fly late. I will go to her tonight, now that the price is
likely to float up.
GREYSTONE LADYLIKE has to be respected on her resume, and she takes a small class drop here and draws well. She isn't always sound, but if she parades that way tonight, expect Saftic to blast her out of there and try to wire them. She now has one back from the vet scratch, and a few since the layoff. Not my top choice, but certainly in the mix.
SOUTHWIND GEISHA has a habit of starting slow, and then having to grind off a tough trip. She is gritty, and on the right night, with the right trip, she is possible. I like a couple of others better, but she is a use in the picks if you play that.
YOUR MY SECRET draws better and gets Fillion. She can effect the outcome with her gate speed, and I would not be shocked if she somehow got on the ticket late. I don't like her to win, but she is triactor material.
GREYSTONE LADYLIKE has to be respected on her resume, and she takes a small class drop here and draws well. She isn't always sound, but if she parades that way tonight, expect Saftic to blast her out of there and try to wire them. She now has one back from the vet scratch, and a few since the layoff. Not my top choice, but certainly in the mix.
SOUTHWIND GEISHA has a habit of starting slow, and then having to grind off a tough trip. She is gritty, and on the right night, with the right trip, she is possible. I like a couple of others better, but she is a use in the picks if you play that.
YOUR MY SECRET draws better and gets Fillion. She can effect the outcome with her gate speed, and I would not be shocked if she somehow got on the ticket late. I don't like her to win, but she is triactor material.
RIDE
AWAY SHARK has gotten away poorly twice in a row. That is a bad sign
for a mare that likes to blast out and either ramble on the front or sit
in and pull late. She drops here, and will take action, but I like
others better and will call her to miss the ticket.
SING LIKE AN ANGEL might be viable at the bottom, but these appear too tough for her. She is finding her way in this province, but the fields are larger, tougher, and she cant dominate them with her speed and breeding like she did back home. When challenged, she hangs late. As she did last time at Flamboro.
REGAL ROXY swims with the sharks tonight, not the goldfish. Pass. She has never shown me she is anything more than a cheap claimer, albeit a pretty good and sharp one now.
MISS COCO LUCK draws the outside, and we have seen what that means for her chances as one who needs to be out close and then follow. Another night, or a class drop and better post. Not tonight.
TWIN B INSPIRING is out.
Race 6
DOCS DIVA has been racing for almost a year now, but she seems to be slowly improving, just a bit more each month. Tonight, she picks up Randy, which is an obvious upgrade and he is a money driver. I will call her in the upset. She will need a few things to go her way. The scratches help her for sure.
TRILIFE has stepped up lately and seems to be coming on as the winter approaches. I could take her on top, but she still hasn't beat these yet. I will put her 2nd, but she wouldn't be a shock.
DOCS DIVA has been racing for almost a year now, but she seems to be slowly improving, just a bit more each month. Tonight, she picks up Randy, which is an obvious upgrade and he is a money driver. I will call her in the upset. She will need a few things to go her way. The scratches help her for sure.
TRILIFE has stepped up lately and seems to be coming on as the winter approaches. I could take her on top, but she still hasn't beat these yet. I will put her 2nd, but she wouldn't be a shock.
TOP ROYAL had a tough
post last time, and made a break. She won the first leg try, and she
just seems like the type that rebounds well off bad performances. She is
a contender, but I like others. The post improvement really helps her
cause.
LADY MARINA has enough talent, but she isnt very sound and it seems when she races on, she really feels it. Without her two main rivals, she looks tough and gets a much better post. I still will pick against her. She can prove me wrong.
JIMBELINA is a sharp leaver, and has only missed the ticket once this year, which is very impressive. These are a bit tougher than she has ever beaten, but she is right there if the trip works out. Shot and use in the pick 4.
QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE loses Fillion and has a very weak win record. Keep your eye on her back in the nw classes, but I dont think she can take all of these.
TEMPUS SEELSTER catches a break with the scratches, but even so, she just barely held last time, off the most perfect trip you can get. I dont care for her lack of desire to fight when others come to her, which is a family trait on her dams side. Pass.
DEWAR N SODA draws the outside, and that is enough to relegate her to a very outside shot. I like others. If she had drawn better she might have been a player and might be a decent one to follow as the winter progresses.
1 NEVER ANY DOUBT is out.
4 DOCS SAUSALITO is out
LADY MARINA has enough talent, but she isnt very sound and it seems when she races on, she really feels it. Without her two main rivals, she looks tough and gets a much better post. I still will pick against her. She can prove me wrong.
JIMBELINA is a sharp leaver, and has only missed the ticket once this year, which is very impressive. These are a bit tougher than she has ever beaten, but she is right there if the trip works out. Shot and use in the pick 4.
QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE loses Fillion and has a very weak win record. Keep your eye on her back in the nw classes, but I dont think she can take all of these.
TEMPUS SEELSTER catches a break with the scratches, but even so, she just barely held last time, off the most perfect trip you can get. I dont care for her lack of desire to fight when others come to her, which is a family trait on her dams side. Pass.
DEWAR N SODA draws the outside, and that is enough to relegate her to a very outside shot. I like others. If she had drawn better she might have been a player and might be a decent one to follow as the winter progresses.
1 NEVER ANY DOUBT is out.
4 DOCS SAUSALITO is out
TWOMACSONEMACH is one of those with a lot of talent and as many issues to go with it. He showed that last winter at Pompano, and even here he has done the same. Last time, he kept it together and won his leg. I will play his risky form and put him on top, for what should be a price with the obvious two taking the bulk of the money.
ARCHANGEL THREE didn't look very sound parading last time, but he certainly comes to play when he goes behind the gate. He is a slow starter but in the mix if they battle in front of him. I list him 2nd based on that, but he could pass them all if the right things happen.
THINK ON IT has cut it twice, won both legs, and now has 4 in a row. Hard to not like him. But, he has also had it his own way and not really been pushed. That wont be the case tonight. I can see him getting beat, but staying on for the ticket.
P L JACKSON is tough not to put in the top 3, and I almost did. He is just a nice, consistent colt who is improving as he goes. But, he just doesn't pace right to the wire like some of the others at this point. He could make me regret leaving him off the ticket, but others show just a shade more for now.
SENIOR K went a long trip last time from the 9 hole and gave it up late. He draws better here and will take heavy action. I can see that mile hurting him, as he obviously is not very sound. I will go against him and leave him off the ticket.
MACH POWER was back to running in really bad in the turns last time, and appeared to crash and bang with Mayfield Duke, who wasn't steering well beside him. I cant go near this one when he is like that. I will watch for some sign Carmen has gotten him sorted out. That appeared to be the case when he got him, but he has regressed again. Pass.
MAYFIELD DUKE has not impressed me with his on track appearance of late. He was borderline dangerous to steer last time, and that has not been the first time. Pass.
SURE FIRED BET is 2 for 27 and has the 9 hole. He could have been triactor material if he had drawn better. He still could sneak into 3rd, but I will go to others because he drew bad. Harding gets them to go. So, there is that. Another day and spot, he might be a play coming soon.
SPEEDLING post plus form means a pass for me.
BUGATTI is a no play with post 10. Nuff said.
Race 8
MANOFMANYIMAGES is very good right now, and has been for a few weeks. He avoids the top two from last time, both of who were top stakes horses during the last couple of years on their best day. He was right there with them. His slow starts put him at the mercy of the pace and traffic. Post 1 doesn't help that cause, but I will stick with him.
HONOR ABOVE ALL starts slow and digs himself a hole. I will go to another who will bring value underneath my top choice. He is dangerous enough though.
Note: I had picked Amoreuse Hanover for 2nd, but she was scratched. That moved him up to my 2nd choice.
UNICUM BI will have to show me he can compete at this level and with Per driving, that is enough of a reason to watch him for now. He is likely to develop into a good one, but I'm not sold he is that close to that yet. Maybe by February.
MERCHANDISER will be handled by Peck tonight. He isn't the worst guy out there, but he isn't a professional driver in a race where driver will matter. He made a sharp move going down the pike on them the last time he won with him. That worked then. They wont let him try that again. That was then. Tonight, I go elsewhere. He is also a bit off behind. So, that is also a factor in me going to others.
ALLIES GIFT had the rail last time at Flamboro, got the cheap half, and wired them. Those variables aren't in play here. Pass.
MUSCLE AVE draws bad and is only a marginal type in this class anyway. Pass.
WALK TO FOLSOM has come into his own as an aged trotter, something you see every now and then. He doesn't meet LMC Mass Oak or Tymal Tempest here though. That is certainly something to consider. Lets see if he can go forward and get a piece. I'm not certain he is ready for that test.
WHOSGOINGTOCATCHUS has a solid record at the Bs controlling the pace. Post 10 here. So much for that.
STONEBRIDGE QUEST can leave like a shot and carry that speed a long way. I will call her tonight for the minor upset. I like what I see from her in a lot of ways. These are tough, but she seems up to it.
RUBIS PRESCOTT takes the big class drop, draws inside, which doesn't help many at this track but can help one like her with that big burst off the wings, and gets JJ who has a history of doing well with her. She is a contender when all that is summed up.
9 LINDWOOD BEACHGIRL draws bad and has been facing some tough customers all year. I can see her coming late for a share, but maybe not raced as tough as need be to win it.
4 SELLING THE DREAM had the 10 hole and just went around last time. Of course she looks tough back with a better post, but I am not certain she is a cinch. I will lay off her this time. I think she is headed to the Preferred by next spring the latest, but she isn't there yet. I wouldn't take the short odds she might bring tonight.
BAD AS LEADER takes the big class drop here, and obviously, she will take money. I'm not sold she isn't just one of many in here. I will go against her and the likely short price.
D GS PESQUERO was her old self last time, leaving hard, and finishing well when she finally got out, which was way too late. She is another who could upset the apple cart here.
REQUEST FOR PAROLE got cat and moused by Trevor last time, but still paced hard to the wire. I give her credit for that. She doesn't generally hold her form for long. I like a few others ahead of her here, and these are much tougher, top to bottom, than last time.
P L HURRICANE comes in off 2 wins, but moves up again. These are beyond her ability as I see it. I will pass on her.
POP GOES THEWEASEL has not returned from a layoff with good form. A couple more and she can drop down. Lets see how she goes before she gets there. No shot tonight with some very sharp ones.
Race 10
MAJESTIC PRESENCE got picked off late last time, but raced great in both legs. She is the logical play here. I will stick with her.
DEVILS ADVOCATE is and has always been a bad behaver. But, when she does behave, she is as good as any of these. I will take a shot and list her 2nd. She could easily win this. Or....be distanced when the gate speeds away. She is just that type.
MAGICAL VALENTINE seemed like she was well meant last time, but stopped on the front. I can give her a pass on that, since she has stepped up before and these aren't deep. Shot.
TRUMPETS tripped out last time, but isn't likely to get that trip this time. She has certainly improved, but is a bit player without post advantage.
WHAMBAMTHANKUMAAM ran early last time, but recovered to finish in the picture. She was 2nd before that. She has soundness issues, but if she has it together tonight, she is a player. Post parade is important here.
STONEBRIDGE PEACE came along well for Henseley on the barn change. She can certainly take these if she continues to trot like that. She has showed flashes of promise. Its a toss up which one of her multiple personalities shows up tonight.
ONE TOO MANY gets trips that indicate she should win, but she comes up short. I cant play her based on what I've seen.
MAJESTIC MISTRESS upset them last time, but she draws bad here and generally isn't that dangerous. I like others better.
I WANT KANDY is one I cant go near, and wouldn't even if she had drawn well. She didn't anyway. She has a lot of issues.
DAYLINER is 2 for 27 life, and doesn't look dangerous in this company. Too many going better than her at this stage.
Race 11
CALL IT COURAGE draws better here and based on her past ability to leave hard, she could be dangerous in a race with most who are tough to take. Upset call.
WILDCAT BEAUTY drops in class and draws well. She also knows how to lose when she looks like she is a player. I will go elsewhere. She has a history of being sucker money.
SHOW SOME LEG draws poorly and will have to rough it or pick up live cover. Live cover implies something live to follow. Hard to see who that can be in with this bunch. I think she gets there too late if she even shows up, which she doesnt always do. I go to others. She does have better form than most. Not because hers is good, because theirs is horrid.
KISS ME OR NOT goes back to Carmen, but from what I've seen from her, even Lou Pena couldn't make her go right now. She has no interest and appears very sore. She can prove me wrong. I think this is a desperate move that wont work, although it has on this change before.
Balance not listed in order. They are all equally impossible to like.
ARTISTIC MADISON appears completely used up and spent. No thanks.
HONOR ROLL even with many who are hard to like, she draws the 10 hole and is a no shot type, and might even be with a better post. B track horse in my view.
LITTLE MISS SPORTY is impossible to use based on those lines. Nuff said.
LEGAL PROCESS comes in off a poor qualifier, a layoff, and bad lines. I will watch once. Weller is dangerous, but, I cant back this one.
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