Opportunity to get value

Last week, I picked two of the important variables when presented with those choices on Dave Schwartz's Facebook Page, Talking Handicapping. Those two were Thoroughly Vet The Favorite, and Knowing When To Pass. They are connected, but in my view, the first one is the door you have to go through before you even decide if you have to pass the race. If I can't vet the favorite and make an informed and educated value judgement, then I have nothing to work with.
I will start and expound on all that from that specific starting point.

Here is something I know. Young horses are inexperienced and unproven.
That sounds so simple, that everyone agrees on it. But, they don't bet that way. They treat very green, potentially fast horses as proven older ones. They don't account for the reality that these horses are just toddlers, many with only one race under their belts. Some with two. A few with 3. And in many cases, they have dominated horses that will never amount to anything at all. They are fast, and its expected they will continue to become faster, stay sound, and be able to withstand the accumulation of wear that a racehorse will encounter as the races pile up. The reality is that most of these wont measure up or make it. They will regress, or they will simply not go forward. They will become claimers, work their way down the class ladder, or go lame and gradually lose value and ability. Some just will become tired and/or sore and not want to try anymore. These are the flaws that racehorses have. It is a consistent thing. These horses are flawed. Most horses are flawed. But, in spite of flaws, they have gotten away with it to that point and to the average player, they appear to be solid. As such, these bettors are on the wrong side of the bet--the value proposition--the next time they race.
For me, that spells opportunity. Opportunity to get value. If my competitor, which is always the other bettors, are treating very risky propositions as if they are very reliable, virtual short priced cinches, they are handing me value.....over time.
Sure, some of these will still beat me because they will come through. Not at the rate the odds they attract suggest they should, but still many will continue to overcome the flaws that make them risky and not reliable. None of that matters to me. I just want to find the races, the places, the connections and the bettors who play them. As long as I can do it, and I am right, I just have to pick my spots and be consistent in how I play. Play against them.
"Play against" is an important phrase. One thing I learned along the way, and this is something the vast majority of horseplayers cannot grasp, is that if you want to be successful, don't try to pick winners. Pick losers. The only thing I really have to do is figure out who can't win the race. If I can do that well, I just need to see who is left and if the odds that are left for me to play justify the value I need to turn my time and money into profit. If someone or a group of bettors are playing a risky young horse at 1-5 or 1-9, and the chances are they are at best 4-5 plays, then I am already sitting in the drivers seat. Everything else in the race has value. I just have to pick from those and be right enough. 

The first thing I like to do is spot where the most foolish bettors are and at what track they play. I tried playing Finger Lakes, because as a rule, that is the track with the most shortest priced favorites and bridgejumpers, day in, day out.  But those guys are sharp. They rarely make mistakes on very heavy favorites. And if that horse fails, they have a 2nd one right behind him at short odds as well. So, trying to beat those just cost me money over time. Sure, I beat a few, but mostly, those favorites beat me. A lot. And why is that? My contention is that the people who bet the really big money at that track are either insiders or just know the horse population so well, or both, that they don't make many mistakes with very large bets. So, trying to beat them, less the takeout I face at any track, was foolish. And I took some big hits trying. That was okay. You have to take hits to learn how to get better.
Knowing that, I began to search for tracks where the bettors were more than willing to be wrong a lot and with big money. When I say big money, I'm talking about bigger fish, mostly whales, who are willing to put in many thousands on one horse. Why would they do that and be wrong? Wont they lose money doing that?
You would think that, but in specific cases, you would be wrong. Two examples of that reside in West Virginia. Mountaineer and Charlestown. Why those two places?
It's really very simple. Those that bet that track get a 50% break on their large bets at only those two tracks. How does that work?
One thing most don't understand about bridgejumper type players is why they do it. And when I say I am referring to these types, I am referring to those that actually do it with purpose. Not the small time guys that try to piggyback on them. Not the group of bettors that bet $500 or $1000 here and there. They add up too, but they don't really matter. And those people will always lose. They don't know what they are doing, and don't matter. I am referring to the types that bet 50k or 100k or more on a race. They do that because, in their minds, they are getting an overlay. It might not seem that anybody that bets knowing they are getting back $2.10 on 2 is getting an overlay, but in fact, since horse racing has never actually adjusted odds and return to the exact amount the pool justifies, they are. In many cases, they are getting an overlay, times 10. No matter how much is bet to show, or even win, on a horse, that bettor will get $2.10 on that horse. If the pool and return had been adjusted, they should be getting back $2.01, or even a fraction of that. That is an overlay you can almost never find in racing.
That would be good enough, but when you even improve that 50%, these people jump on that, and they will be willing to assume a lot more risk, even knowing the horse is unreliable as discussed above. A horse they would never jump on with a $2.10 return they will be all over at $2.20.
When they make a bet that is large enough to generate a $2.10 return, they get $2.20 back. That is a monumental edge for a player like that. If they are even half good at doing what they do, this is the place they make maximum return. What do they care if they lose a few of those bets? They don't. So, they will take risks on very risky types because it doesn't matter if they lose those. It's just volume, volume, volume with these people. That is where I come in.
I understand the overall game these people play. I don't play that game, because it's not my way of playing, but I do understand they aren't foolish, stupid people. They can and will make a nice profit over time by playing very large amounts and taking a small percentage return with very few large hits. They have to play large amounts, and play a lot of bets to do that. It works for them. It wont work for me. What does work for me is what they create.
I know they will make these very large bets and create spread value. While they have to be right well over 90% of the time at other tracks they might play like this, at say Santa Anita or Belmont, they can get away with a much lower percentage at these two West Virginia tracks. Being that is the case, they will take the risk. With risk comes the likelihood of failure. They are giving me value on the losers, and they don't care. They still make money doing it.
That is where I come in again. If they are going to accept failure that they wouldn't otherwise, I am happy to play the other side of that failure for profit. Because they have increased my possibility of return on the other side of the bet. Its just math. And cost analysis, risk/reward return.
Now, the guys at Belmont and Santa Anita, they cant afford to be wrong like that. One hit, and it can wipe out the profit margin. So, they are more careful. Thus, its harder for me to beat them. Which means I very rarely try to. I watch, and if I see something, that I think they are just plain wrong and are missing something, I will make a play. But its rare. I am playing against the reality that they wont make those bets there unless they know they are going to be right to the high percentage they need there. I want to play where they don't need the high percentage but will make the same bet.
The guy at Mountaineer who hosts the in program analysis has mentioned how foolish these players are to take the risks they do on very risky horses. But what he doesn't consider is that they do it for a reason. Because they can. And still make a profit. In that way, he is foolish to not see that. He doesn't understand how to bet and make money.

And so, we get to the bet I made at Charlestown. Charlestown is a very new track to me. I never considered playing it before. Firstly, I'm not a T bred guy, and secondly, when I do play them, I tried to stick to the bigger tracks where I know at least something about the horses, the breeding, the trainers and jockeys. But, that was a mistake. That didn't play into my advantage.

Realizing what my advantage is/was, was the key to all that. I understand what looks like failure to me might look like success to most players. I am a race ahead of them in figuring that out. That doesn't really have that much to do with who the jockey or trainer is, who the horse is, although it can and those can be factors. My advantage is who the other bettor is and what they are willing to do wrong and hand me. The bettors at Belmont and Santa Anita are smart and sophisticated. They know at least as much as me, and in many cases, a lot more. I'm not going to beat them, and I don't even try. I am working against myself even attempting it. In racing terms, I am the 40 claimer taking on the stakes horse. I can try as hard as I want, I can't run as fast as the stakes horse. He is better than me.

I started to watch Charlestown, and I had been watching Mountaineer for awhile. I noticed how many very suspicious horses were being bet down when they looked horribly risky. Since I am a replay watcher, and I have actual horse training experience, I can spot horses that have issues that can be considered troublesome and probable to repeat themselves in a predictable way. Most of that is not on the program page. It takes the work. And again, if I am going to do that work, I want to do it where the players that play can also do that, but don't care and make the bet anyway. I don't want to do it at places like Belmont or Santa Anita where the actual risk will be considered. I am not using my time wisely if I try to find horses to beat that wont have the odds that give me the return. It's bad betting strategy.

I can be very certain that if I just watched Charlestown and Mountaineer, did my homework, stayed patient, there would be plenty of opportunity to get the value I spotted. On this particular night, it just fell right into place.

 

Big Dreamer is the type that horsemen refer to as "not much stock". That basically means they are of limited talent and have other issues that mean you have to get the money while you can as an owner and trainer. She ran once late in her 3yo year in a Maiden Special Weight race and was 4th at 9-5. In other words, she had hardly raced until she was 4 and failed the one time she did. That isn't unusual or something you can do much with, as so many are like that. But, its a starting point. She returned in the spring of 2016 in a maiden claimer, as many do, looking to beat up on others of her kind while she was still capable of doing so. It took her 3 starts, but she finally did beat those maiden claimers. As horsepeople, we know this leaves a horse in no mans land. They have basically, in most cases, beaten the only horses they can beat and now have to face the horses that can beat others. In other words, they are up against it. Any flaw she has, now will be exposed and pounced on by the better horses who make you pay for those flaws. In spite of that, she ran 2nd twice in a row and appeared to be doing well. Her flaws were not catching up to her. What were her flaws?

First, she likes to lead and appears to need to do so. She isn't alone there. Many do. Its hard to pass horses and many who cant will give up. Second, and more importantly, in conjunction with the first flaw, she comes out of the gate a few steps slow and others can beat her to the punch. In her previous start, she did that, but got to the front anyway and went a long way to get 2nd. But, she was tired from having to run hard to get the lead off a slow start and another blew by her late. She didn't run great, but her raceline didn't look bad. She had now run 6 times in her life, and been 1st, 2nd or 3rd 4 of those times. That's a decent record. But when you consider 3 of those times were against maiden claimers, she was doing what she does against horses that wouldn't make her pay for her flaws.

By my view, she carried heavy risk that she would try to run for the lead, get off slow, not get the front..and quit. On September 21st, that is exactly what happened. She was bet to 3-5, which was foolish, but didn't present me with too much value on the other side of that pool, as really there were 4 legit contenders who looked to beat her if she bombed out. However, she had 79% of the show pool, and thus, was bet like a horse that was very likely to make the top 3. That is where the value was. It was a 7 horse field, so, I had 6 to sort from if I was excluding her as one who was not in the mix for the ticket. I determined the two longest shots were not viable, and I had 4 left to play with. Normally, I would grade them and bet them based on the probability they were the ones. In this case, I didn't. I thought it could be any combination of the 4 that filled the 3 remaining spots and virtually, they were all taking the same action in the show pool. I try not to get too smart when I do these things. In my mind, she was likely to bomb, and these were the 4 that would fill the 3 spots that paid me if she did. I played them equally, and they came 1-2-3-4, with Big Dreamer well beaten because she got off slow, tried to run for the lead but couldn't get by this time, and the two longshots well out of it.

It really was that simple.

In reality, could she have gotten off okay out of the gate, ran to the lead, and been 2nd or 3rd? Sure, and some of them will. But, a few wont. If she has 50% of the show pool, then that is about right and I have no advantage, and I would pass the race. I vetted out the favorite, thoroughly, and I was right about that. But that only does me good if she gets overbet because the bettors at Charlestown are either foolish, or don't care in spite of seeing what I see. In my world, I don't care why they overbet them. I just want to know they are probably going to do it. In specific cases, when they don't, I pass the race. In all other cases, I make my play. Win some, lose some, but win enough with the value edge, and make the profit. 

 

 

The highs and lows of owning horses, in less than 5 days.

My favorite moment in harness racing, and all that led up to it. It's a long story, but I felt it all needed to be included to set the scene for why it was so important.

I met Vince Li by chance at Greenwood Raceway one night. There probably aren't many in harness racing who remember him for anything significant or know who he was. But if you follow harness racing in any way you know of one mare he owned that changed the breed as we know it today. Some would argue she is the greatest broodmare of our generation, and one of the greatest of all time. I knew Vince before he bought that mare.  He also had some very nice horses for a very short time, but eventually faded away from the game and I lost touch with him. I haven't seen him at all in more than 20 years. 

He also had been an owner many times in the years before I met him, and knew a lot of people. On many levels, he was an insider. I never realized how much of an outsider I was until I learned what he knew and how he knew it. It truly changed the way I viewed the harness racing game, even if I had never owned or trained a horse. As it turns out, I did both and probably that is mostly due to Vince.

That particular night, when I met him, I was sitting outside in the grandstand at Greenwood. It was a warm, sunny night, like many when I went to Greenwood in the summer. I don't recall that being any kind of special stakes card or anything else special about that card, other than I met him. Oh, and also, I was picking a ton of winners that night. He noticed that. I was also there that night with my grandmother. All of that was relevant when I get to the reason I am telling this very long story. It seemed whenever Vince was around, at least near the beginning, I picked a lot of winners. I guess some people just have that effect on you. Certainly, when he wasn't around, I could still pick my share of losers. Lots of them.

That night, after I picked a few winners, and it was obvious I did because my grandmother bet whatever I bet (and she was very vocal, more about that later in the blog), he made contact with me. He asked me who I liked in the next race. I said TENIKAT. I always did well with Tenikat. He was a Direct Scooter and I seemed to win a lot on those (that will be connected at the end of the blog). Tenikat won that race and paid something like $7.00. After that, we left and the next time I came, he was there again but my grandmother didn't come that night. So, we struck up a conversation. I always kept a notebook and was writing down notes. He asked me about the stuff I was writing. If you know me, you know that just opened up the conversation floodgates. 

I saw him a few times after those initial encounters, and we started to talk more. As it turns out, he lived just down the street from me. So, being a regular, and Vince being a regular, we decided we would go together. He would pick me up, and off we would go to Greenwood, or Mohawk if they were racing there. I didn't go to Mohawk much, as I was still in University and didn't have the time to go on weeknights. But the odd time he would phone me up and tell me he was coming over in a few minutes, and convince me to ditch my schoolwork  (I didn't need much convincing, as it turned out). I recall we went one night on a Tuesday, and we both had TOM CHAR MINDALE for a decent price. There was one difference though, and I learned this about Vince fairly quickly. I bet $5 to win on Tom Char Mindale, because Vince had inside info and told me that the horse was going to the front and winning that night. Vince bet $500 to win. How do I know that? He sent me to the window for him to bet the $500! The guy at the $50 window must have thought I'd mugged a guy to get that money, because I'd never bet a sum like that in my life on a horse race. It didn't even feel comfortable saying 500 to win on anything. But, to Vince, it was like pennies in his pocket. I remember when he won big, or lost big, he didn't seem to blink or care. That was with betting. When his horses won or lost, he was very enthusiastic. 

At the time, he only owned 2 or 3 horses, mostly leftovers from his last foray into owning. One was a horse he had with Paul Simko who they had for a long time and Paul's parents had bred as I recall. I remember he was a Ladatross and that the mother was a good mare they had done well with together when Paul was young and that it was Vince's first horse. That foal didn't turn out to be that good, but Vince still was on the ownership papers, even though he didn't have any interest in the horse at that stage. His other one was a horse called HARROWSMITH. He was an Armbro Ranger, and was supposed to be a good horse. From what Vince told me, they had paid good money privately for him, but he hadn't turned out. He was a choker. He'd had some sort of surgery to try and fix that, but on this night, my first time ever at Elmira, we went out to see him race in a 4 claimer. He was supposed to win, but he hung badly and barely held 4th. Vince certainly wasn't shocked and I believe he told Paul on the way out of the track that he wanted out on the horse. It was the beginning of a new owning chapter for Vince. For me, even Harrowsmith, and the thought of owning a racehorse that you had in any race seemed pretty exciting and a dream come true. I learned better as the years went on, but at that point, even owning a 2 claimer at Goderich would have thrilled me.  

A few weeks later, we went to Orangeville and watched a full day of Sire Stakes. 2 year old colt pacers. Horses like Riser, Ivan, and a host of others. I was pretty excited. Hit a bunch of winners that day too, and Vince mentioned if I wanted to own we could go partners. That became the plan, although we didn't act on it for a year or two to come. In the meantime, Vince did start owning. 

One thing about Vince was that he had money. Big money. It was money he came over with from Honk Kong. He also had a very nice house, a high end new car, and he was a bank manager who made a good buck doing that. Because of all that, this time, he was only going to spend big money to buy better horses. He started with a horse called Kintyre. I believe he claimed him for 30,000  (although I am foggy on the exact amount) won a race or two with him and lost him for 40,000. In the meantime, he claimed a horse called P J Blaze for 50,000 (that number I do remember clearly). P J Blaze was a horse I knew well. I had loved him as a 2yo and bet him several times when he had won. He was also a good 3yo, but not as dominant. As an aged horse, he had stalled and wasn't doing very well. To claim him for 50k seemed foolish, but Vince said he knew what he was doing. That was on a Saturday I think. The next Friday, Vince and I headed out to Greenwood. P J Blaze was in the last race of the night. I remember that clearly as well. There was another horse in that race, the only one who looked like he was competitive with Vince's new horse and that horse was called Royce Rolls. At that stage, Royce Rolls had a well earned reputation as a horse that always looked like he should win, made lots of money, but finished 2nd just about every time. Still, he was well thought of, and he went off slightly less than even money. P J Blaze went off at about 5-2. I remember that because I bet $10 to win on him, and that was the first time I'd ever bet $10 to win on anything. I'd cashed bigger wins before, but never bet that kind of money on one horse in one race. P J Blaze stalked Royce Rolls and then took him on the turn and opened up on him by the tote board, a long gone winner. We rushed down to the winners circle (also my first time ever in the winners circle, another dream of mine) and got the picture. Vince was a very generous guy. He even bought me a separate win picture for myself in addition to the one for himself. I still have it somewhere. Trevor Ritchie was the driver that night. That will become important later in the blog. From there, he held on to P J Blaze,and had him a long time. Another night, when I didn't go with Vince, P J Blaze won the final race of the night at long odds and Vince had the triactor, and he cashed out for $25000 on that one race, not even counting the purse he won. I had never even heard of anyone cashing a ticket like that. He actually didn't even cash. It was such a large amount, they had to give him a cheque for safety reasons. He didn't even seem to be too excited about it.  He did very well with P J Blaze and that led to Jagger Hanover. Another claim, and he turned into a Stakes horse for him. He also won the Molson Pace the next year, and I think he competed in and got a cheque in the Canadian Pacing Derby for Vince. Jagger Hanover also has a direct connection to this story, which will come near the end. Jagger Hanover was another horse I ended up in a lot of win pictures with Vince. I have one or two lying around (I couldn't find them in time for this blog, but will post them sometime when I clean up my basement and I do). He was a dream horse for Vince. I don't think even he thought he would end up with a horse like that when he claimed him. Like many he claimed, they flourished under the care of Rick Fife, who was his trainer at the time and who was the top or one of the top trainers at the time on the circuit.  

The sale I went to where we were supposed to buy something.

That summer, we went to the Royal Blue sale at Mohawk and our goal was to buy a Laag or Willow Wiper foal. There weren't many of either at that sale, and we only liked one or two of the Willow Wiper's, as some were good, but many were bad specimens and had serious flaws. The two Laag's we liked were way overpriced when the hammer fell, because they were greys and as we all know, greys sell for more than they are worth as a rule because people love to buy greys. So, we passed on those, and both of them never turned out to be anything anyway. There was only one Willow Wiper we both liked, but she went for way more than we thought we should have to pay. As it turns out, we were the underbidder, and the filly, named ARRESTING, went to Earl Lennox for 20k if my memory serves. It turned out to be a good deal for him. She made something like 80k at two, and while she didn't come back good at 3, he got her claimed early for 35k and was out on her. She will come into play in this blog later as well.  

ARRESTING sale page

 We went home with nothing that day, and of course I was disappointed. Vince told me something that day on the way home in the car I have never forgotten. There are always more horses to buy. You just have to be patient. We could have gone out and claimed a cheap one just so I could get my feet wet, but we waited. The time came the next January. By then, I had a job and some money saved up. I could easily afford my half of a decent horse to race at Greenwood, which is what I wanted. Because Vince was connected, as I mentioned earlier, he had Paul Simko on the lookout for anything that fit our criteria. Paul was stabled at Flamboro. I remember that because he had a goat named Jack, and Jack was a ram. He spent the entire time you were in the barn at Flamboro trying to ram you. It got really annoying after a while. Every time Paul said I should come down to the barn after the races, I asked him if that ramming goat Jack was going to be there. He said yes and I said "I'm not coming then." Anyway, Paul heard that Gary Rivest had a 4yo filly he had claimed at 3 at Connaught or Sudbury and had raced out there until they shut down for the winter. Gary always wintered at Flamboro and tried to race what he had to grind out a buck until he went back North or East. He had a mare named COLANUT then and she did okay. She was even a marginal Greenwood horse some nights. The mare Gary had that we wanted, that he wanted to sell, was named COME BY CHANCE. She was a nice filly. Sound, very good gaited, seemingly fast enough, and was bred well enough to suggest she would do okay at Greenwood and Mohawk. She was a Silent Majority mare out of an Armbro mare (Armbro Wisteria) by Nansemond. She had a full sister named Vibernum that I think Garth Gordon raced at Greenwood for a while and did okay enough. 

One Saturday, we decided to go to Flamboro to watch Come By Chance qualify. It was a bitter cold freezing day, and it was the morning. We were both tired, as we had been to Greenwood together the previous night. I remember that because we were reading the program on the way to Flamboro, and both trying to figure out how we missed SEVEN WONDERS at 22-1 in the last race when we both had bet him the week before. We arrived a few minutes before the qualifier, and there were only 4 horses. She was the only one who could go any speed, so, even though she won by 12 or 15, she only went 2:04 or 2:05. We were willing to pay 13k, which we thought was fair, but Gary wanted 15k, firm. We both thought that was too much for a mare who went a qualifier like that and he had claimed for 7k plus allowances the previous fall, but he was insistent. We told him we would think it over and left. Vince told me that if we didn't give him 15k, he wouldn't sell. Whether that was true or not, what is 2k when you are buying a horse you think can race at Greenwood? So, we bought her, and left her with Paul. 

I now owned my first racehorse!

She qualified again, this time in 2:02 and a bit, and then it was time to race. The first race was to be at Flamboro, and all they had was a phony fillies and mares open type race. There was only 6 entered, and 3 of them were really 15 claimers at Greenwood. One was a nice mare named Holly Harbor who was probably better than all of them, but she didn't get a very good trip and finished back (I remember that because her trainer/owner drove her that night, something he didn't do very often, and he was not pleased with another driver who parked him the entire mile. I was chatting with him for a while after the race). We finished 2nd, with Gary driving since he knew her already, and we were pleased. I was pleased for sure. 

Now it was time to take her to Greenwood. Paul wasn't the type to race at Greenwood, so she was to go to Rick Fife, who was Vince's guy. I had never met him and didn't even know him other than what I had read off the program. All I knew was that he knew what he was doing and had gotten great results with P J Blaze and Jagger Hanover, and others whose name I can't remember anymore. Her race was to be on a Friday night and we put her in for 15k,  but she went for 22.5k with allowances. She wasn't going to get claimed, but if she did for some reason, we would have made a big profit. All week Vince kept telling me that Rick loved her, and that she was going to win that night, or have a big shot to win. I don't recall for certain which of the two it was, but it was one of those. I was skeptical. There were other mares in there who looked better than her.  She was 10-1 at post time and I bet her to win. Vince bet a lot of money on her to win. That I do remember. I still remember my jitters that night, and the rush as they began to go to the gate. I was actually racing a legit horse at Greenwood for about 7 or 8 years of going there and just being a fan and a bettor. As the race unfolded, it was clear she was a contender. She sat in and followed, pulled on the turn and took over the lead. She had a big lead heading to the wire, but a nice mare named Generosity, who had beaten much better in the past, rushed up and passed her on the wire. Still, it was a very good 2nd. After that,  we had a choice to make. We could put her back in for 15k, but we were well aware we would likely win, and certainly lose her to the claim, which would have been a big profit but still have no horse. So, since having a horse was the more important at that stage, we put her in for 20k. The next race was the next Friday night, and she was in for a base of 20k, which meant a 30k tag. She still looked to be one of the favorites, and was, but got a terrible drive and finished 5th or 6th. We left her in for 20k for about a month, and she got a few 4ths and 5ths, but no wins or close calls. By that time, Mohawk was about to start in the spring.  

 We decided to put her back in for 15k at that point and take our chances. She seemed like she would be a good claim, but nobody ever took her. Her first start for 15k, she was in the first race of the night. She had a good post, maybe the rail, or something else good, and went right to the front. She was 1-5, or 1-9 and she looked the best for sure. Terry Kerr was her driver that night. Why? I don't know. He didn't drive at Mohawk much,and never for Rick or Vince, but he was on her that night, and he certainly knew well how to win on the front end. She seemed home free on the turn, opened up, but then, as was her habit, she eased up and let a big longshot pass her on the line again. It was a very close photo. We thought we had won it and it took a long time to put a number on the board. We were 2nd though. After that, she went back in for 20 again, and was 3rd and 4th a few times but never really close to a win. That lasted the entire spring until they went back to Greenwood. She was paying her way, and racing good, but it was time to go back for 15 where she could win.

It was a Monday night I think, and the opening night of the Greenwood meet. Race 3. She looked like she had a shot. A reasonable shot, but she wasn't the best in there. She was one of many. She had a decent post, and although we didn't expect it, Trevor Ritchie put her on the front and tried to wire them. She was always best on the front or sitting on the rail, like many Silent Majority's who liked a trip. As they turned for home, she was on top, but they were closing in and beginning to swarm her. I thought she might hold on for a share, but that was it. However, for whatever reason, this night, she dug in and fended them off. At the wire, it was very tight with a late closing Foxy Lady H, a mare who had beaten her many times at Mohawk. I was outside in the grandstand, so I couldn't tell for sure. Again, it was a very long photo, but, she had won it. My first win. I recall I was sitting outside with Patti, Rick's wife, and I had come alone, so Vince was there but not sitting with me. Also there was David Smith's girlfriend at the time, a very pretty blond girl who I don't remember her name (but who knew Vince because her family was all horsepeople and Vince knew the all), but was obviously rooting for Foxy Lady H, as Smith was driving that one. Of course, I ran down to the winners circle, and happened to pass Vince and his wife Rosita on the way there. Winning a race like that with a horse like that was no big deal for Vince, but he was very happy, I guess for me. It was a high that lasted for days.

 

My first win. In this pic, a bunch of nurses who sponsored the race, me in the green shirt, Rosita (Vince's wife), Vince in the suit, Trevor Ritchie (the driver) Rick Fife, Patti (in green), and Nat Varty in red holding the horses head. Nat was very young and just starting out at that point, and was Rick's assistant trainer.

Two of the horses that were behind her that night were Willow Wiper fillies. One, the one who finished 3rd, was called Timeless Image. The other? She was a Willow Wiper filly who was down on her luck and near the end of her racing career called.....ARRESTING. 

 After that first win, she was 4th or 5th I think her next race, and then came the moment I will never forget in my racing experience. My favorite moment. I mentioned my grandmother earlier in the blog. She was a racing fan for her entire life. She was born,raised and lived in Western Ontario for much of her life. That is a hotbed of harness racing. I'm sure she spent many a night at Western Fair in her day, and even Woodstock Raceway.  She was from Ingersoll, which is not far from Woodstock, and later had moved to Toronto. I don't think she went to the races often once she moved to Toronto, and since my grandfather, her husband, died suddenly in 1975, she didn't go much of anywhere on her own. By the time I started to go to the races (see my earlier blog for a story about that), http://racingtopics.blogspot.ca/2016/04/my-first-time-ever-at-racetrack.html she got wind of it and we went together, just the two of us. I would go virtually every week, and she would come along about once a month. One of the things she liked to do was pay. That meant she paid the admission, the program, the food and gave me 20 bucks to start the night betting for us. So, I was not losing on those nights no matter what. In spite of that, almost every night we went, I picked winners and we left with more than we started with. No matter what I did, she insisted I got to keep that money. I think she just enjoyed that she got to go do something she loved doing again. There was no amount of money that was worth that to her, so she was happy to pay. One thing about my grandmother is that while she never suffered, she never really had money. So, obviously, she never owned a racehorse, or had been in a winners circle of any kind. It just so happened that every time Come By Chance raced to that point, my grandmother could not come. Then, her next start, my grandmother could come. That night, which was a Thursday night, she wasn't expected to win and we didn't expect much. She had the 9 hole, which was the trailer at Greenwood, and she only looked okay anyway. She was 9-1 and should have been. In any event, it was just fun for my grandmother to think she could root for my horse. We were all sitting together. Vince, Rosita, myself, my grandmother, and possibly some of Rick's family or other friends. I don't recall for sure how many were there with us. But, you knew my grandmother was there. By then, her eyesight was very poor and she couldn't even see the race. But, if you knew my grandmother, you knew she was there. She was VERY VOCAL.  She always was. 

All my cousins, my sister,  her two young sons, myself and my grandmother.

 My Uncle, (her son) had 4 seasons tickets to the Blue Jays games from the very first season, so we often went together in various configurations. Many times, that was two of my cousins, myself and my grandmother. The key for all of us was to get the corner seat that didn't touch my grandmother. Why? Because she also liked to have a beer at the game, and she would be a crazy rooter during the game, jumping up and down and spilling the beer all over herself, and anybody to her left or right. My cousins and I still joke about all that. 

P.S. My grandmother used to scream "Let's play ball" just like in the video when they played that song just before the start of the game, every time, and even before they came up with the song, she was doing it. 

So, the race began, and my grandmother was very vocal. I'm sure the customers around us were wondering what she was so hyped up about. She couldn't even see the race anyway. But that certainly did not stop her. The race progressed and Come By Chance sat back out of it,  maybe 7th or 8th. Not many horses won off that trip at Greenwood. She followed the outer flow, and it was clear the front was collapsing. When they hit the turn, you could see she was going to loop them all and draw off. I remember it clearly. It was like I was watching the race in slow motion. She had won it, and won it easy. In a new lifetime record and my grandmother was there to experience it. Another thing about my grandmother at that stage is that she wasn't very mobile, and it was a long way from where we were sitting in the grandstand down two levels and out to the track to the winners circle. I remember Vince and Rosita saying something I never forgot. They waited and helped me to take my grandmother down to the winners circle and told me that the horse would wait, as long as it takes. 

In this pic,  Rosita far left, Vince, my grandmother, me, Trevor Ritche, Rick Fife and Nat holding the horses head again. My favorite memory of many in the horse racing game.

I'm sure it was one of the biggest thrills of my grandmothers life to be in the winners circle with a horse that her grandson had owned. It certainly was my favorite memory of anything that ever happened to me in racing, betting, training or owning. And that is saying something, because I cashed a lot of nice tickets, won many races as an owner and trained many that won a lot of races. But nothing approached that night or moment.  It was my highest high in the racing game. As it turns out, the coming Monday ( just 4 days later) was Molson Pace night and Jagger Hanover was entered in that. Since they had a race for Come By Chance, she was already entered in that before the Thursday win. She was in for a base 13k, and it was probable we would lose her in that. But, we took our chances. She was 1-9 the best in there, and really only had to get around to daylight them. But of course, it never works out like that. Her race was early in the card, well before Jagger Hanover's. She left out and was moving to the lead when another horse made a wild break, scattered a bunch of them, and she got her legs cut out from underneath her. In spite of that, she stayed up and  kept trying. She even almost got past the leader again, but she didn't and then faded late.  It turns out she had been hit on her suspensory, and she felt that sting near the end of the mile. She came out of the race okay after a couple of weeks, but was never the same and later after a long layoff, ended up at Windsor in a cheap claimer, where we lost her for an overall loss. That was the lowest of the low. The highs and the lows of the owning game in just 4 days. For Vince, that night was probably the highlight for him. Jagger Hanover won the Molson Pace that night, and it was a big deal for him as he had cut his racing teeth at that track. He went on later to buy many yearlings, some for decent money. He even had a horse called Ritchies Imperial who was thought good enough to make the NA Cup, but got beat in the Burlington and didn't make it to the top level, although he made a lot of money afterwards. Vince bought a few other yearlings, mostly fillies. One of those was a Direct Scooter mare you might have heard of. Her name? Well, she was Armbro something when he bought her in Kentucky for about 19k, but he renamed her RICH N ELEGANT. You might have heard of her. She is the dam of RockNRoll Hanover, Rustler Hanover, and all the rest of those from that family. Below ROCKNROLL HANOVER is setting the World Record and the first ever Standardbred 2yo to break the 1:50 barrier. I remember being in Sudbury that night racing and watching it in the lounge after the races while I got a hot dog.

Vince raced RICH N ELEGANT but ended up selling her when he reduced his stock. And I knew him when he was just a guy I met at the track with my grandmother. We went to Elmira to watch his old 4 claimer named Harrowsmith race. We both had some highs and lows in the game. One day I might own a very nice racehorse that hails from the line of RockNRoll Hanover, but no matter how big a thrill I get from that horse, it will never top the thrill that I got with Come By Chance when she won unexpectedly on the one night my grandmother happened to come watch her race. Nothing will ever top that.

 

My first time ever at the racetrack

My first time ever at the racetrack was a very, very reluctant one. It was August 1983.

Now, I will backtrack a sec. I grew up in Montreal until I was 13. I also lived on one side of town, Laval, while my Grandmother lived on the other side of town, which was close to downtown, but a neighborhood within that. In between, you had to take the Jacques Cartier bridge to get there.

Jacques Cartier bridge at sundown.

I spent much of my youth at my grandmothers house. At least the days, and even slept there many nights. So, it was a trip I made thousands of times.
 I remember that bridge because I passed over it so many times. Once past that part, you went through various parts. I don't remember anything else on that trip other than one thing. No, two things. 

The big Orange dome from the Orange Julep stand.

First, there was a big Orange Julep. You had to see it to understand how significant it was. If I was with the right relative on those drives, we always got to stop at the Orange Julep and get a big Julep and very greasy, great fries. Both freshly made on the premises. With lots of ketchup I might add. (I love ketchup and always have).

The big Blue Bonnets sign I passed on the corner. When the races were on, there was a light on the arrow part that guided you into the track.

The other thing I remember was passing Blue Bonnets Raceway. They had a big neon sign out near the street and what looked like a long driveway into the racetrack. There was a very long stoplight at that intersection, and you could see the sign with the arrow on it very clearly. At night, it glowed.

However, I never went in. I was way too young and my parents were not in any way racing fans. Nor were my grandparents in Montreal, who were strictly religious and gambling was never allowed. So, it always had that allure that I wondered what went on in there. I saw the race replay once a night on the local news sports report when they showed the stretch drive, which they seemed to do every night. It was at least partly in french, because that was the way the race track announcer called the races there. He would call it bilingually. (The famous call at the end was "And voici, here dey are.") The local Trois Rivieres race caller still does that sometimes. Its a unique feature of those calls. It had some fascination for me, but I never went as I said, and when I moved to Toronto I never went on my own either, even though my grandmother and great grandfather on the other side that lived in Toronto always went to the track.

When I was in Grade 10 (about 15 years old), my great grandfather died. He was well into his 90s by then, and pretty much senile. But, he could slip away from the care he was getting, hop on the streetcar and go to the races. When he died, my mother said they checked his suits (which he always wore to the races) and there were current losing tickets in all the pockets.

Still, while I would watch the Kentucky Derby and the odd horse race on TV, I'd never gone or had the desire to do so. Some of my other friends had gone, and I think they had asked me a few times but I wasn't interested. At that stage, I was completely into baseball, hockey and golf. Those were my passions and vices. 

I used to watch Citypulse News religiously, and one of the Sports reporters and anchors, Peter Gross,  would show a stretch call from the nights races. I was much more interested in the baseball or hockey scores, but I did find it somewhat interesting. If you know anything about Peter Gross, he was a racetrack regular and probably bet too much for his own good. But, he did have character and made it sound somehow romantic. That still wasn't enough to get me to go, but it was in the back of my mind. 

But on that day in August of 1983, my best friend, also named Mark, turned 18 and we went out to a local restaurant called the Golden Star (which anyone from Toronto would know of reading this) and had dinner. We had no plans after that. When I say "we" I meant me. He had plans. He wanted to go to the horse races. I said "No". I just didn't want to . He wouldn't let it go and kept trying to convince me. If you know me at all, you know how stubborn I am and how hard a task it is to get me to do anything I don't want to do. But, he kept at it, and ground me down. It was his birthday, and since it was, I relented after about 20 minutes of badgering. And off we went.

The Golden Star. It was only 5 minutes from school, and a lot of us skipped school and hung out there for lunch many a day.

The racetrack was off the lake, downtown, and we lived north in the suburbs. So, he drove his newly bought Black Camaro down the Don Valley Parkway and we arrived at the track.

Back then, if you could, you parked on the street, on Eastern Avenue. We found a spot and that is what we did. It was a hot, sunny and clear night. I remember that very clearly. And a short walk to the track. Back then, you had to pay for everything. The program, admission and any tip sheets if you wanted them. And food. But we didn't need food, as we had just had dinner, nor did we need tip sheets, as I had no clue even what a trotter or pacer was. As well, we shared one program. Not like I could even read it anyway. I bet names mostly, or what Mark told me mattered about their form.

As anybody who has been going and playing the horses for as long as I have now (34 years) will tell you, the thing that hooks you most is winning within your first time or two. And of course, that is what happened with me. Our first race was Race 3.

The very first race I ever witnessed and bet on. Mark of Smog, he 7 horse.

I did something that night that I learned not to do later, but of course, that night it worked.  In many ways, like most horse players, I have learned to become too smart for my own good. Anyway, if you look at the program, Race 3, you will see the 7 horse was called Mark Of Smog, and he had not won much or had good form. Betting the 7 horse at Greenwood would usually result in a losing ticket, and horses with his kind of form didn't win much either. And yet, he won that race. I won my first bet ever. A poor performer from the 7 hole at Greenwood. That night, I believe I won 3 of 6 win bets and came home with a small profit. Not knowing anything. It was a fun experience and of course I wanted to do it again. As well, we were both Mark's and as my grandmother told me, bet names. You will win doing that. She tried that a few times when we went together in the years that followed.

The next day, I was at school and another friend, who had gone many times and was well versed in the harness horses happened to find out. He asked me if I wanted to go with him the next week. And, I did. So, I did. 

That night, it happened to be the night Cam Fella won the Canadian Pacing Derby and won his 20 something race in a row. That night I also happened to pick 6 of 10 winners, hit 2 exactors cold, and the last race triactor cold for $200 dollars. That was a lot of money to a kid working for $2.50 an hour at the A&P. What do you think I was thinking at that stage?

Yup. I thought this is pretty easy and I should do way more of that. And I spent the entire coming winter when they came back from Mohawk at Greenwood every Friday or Saturday night losing it all back and then some. But I was convinced I would master this and have spent the entire rest of my life trying to do that. The longer I go these days, the more I realize how little I knew then that I thought I knew for sure and how lucky I was the first two times I went.

And, the tie in on all this: My first time at Barrie Raceway, maybe 9 or 10 years later, I happened upon a 14yo Mark of Smog, who hadn't won a race in years, and was racing in 2 claimers or whatever the bottom was then, I bet him and he won that night. The only race he won for the rest of his life.

Anybody who ever was at Greenwood Raceway in the heat of the summer will tell you what that meant in terms of the experience. If it had been any other track, I might not have gone back. It was special. I still remember all the nights I spent there under that atmosphere. I hardly remember many of the winners I picked, or the countless losers I lost on. But I remember I was glad I was a little less stubborn on that night and my friend Mark was as persistent about making me do something I would not have otherwise ever done.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 25, 2016

RACE 1

1 California Rachel left out well last time, stayed in behind Perfect Road, who figured to go forward. However, he never did, began to back into her, while she had a hanger to her right and the horse in the 2 hole was also backing up. There was no way out until mid lane where Fillion had to zig then zag back to the rail while the pace was picking up and she settled for a going forward 4th. She isn't always that consistent to go forward off a trip like that, but these aren't tough or deep. I will call her to hopefully get in the 2 hole and have a shot to trot home the winner.
6 Donicus got a heads up steer by Green last time, and maybe he has learned to use a horses one move wiser overall. I could see him leaving a bit more this time and trying to get the top or making a retake if that becomes necessary. He is the one to beat on paper, but I will call him 2nd. These types don't hold top form for very long and he could be in even money territory here. 
8 Southwind Gizzel comes in off the shelf with a sharp last quarter in a going away win in the qualifier. However, she also has to move up from maidens to nw2 with a bad post, because she won 2 last year and made a bit of money. She is a tiny filly and I'm not sure she is up to these yet. I will watch her once. Dagfin usually seems in no hurry with his young ones.
7 A Rod Hall took off running last time, something he tried to do the start before but J Mac held him together. I suspect he tries to do that again, and brush him late under wraps, as he also did that time. That gets him 3rd or 4th, but not likely the win picture. That all  presumes that he doesn't just run anyway early and dig a big hole like last time.
3 E L Ima Diesel was entered for Flamboro but didn't get in, so they come here to keep him raced. Obviously, Flamboro looks like a better option at this stage to keep the train rolling. He has won two in a row, the first one first off the shelf daylighting them, the last on the front, even fractions most of the way under wraps against nothing that will ever see this track. He is a one speed type who seems to be getting his act together at 4, but hasn't shown the speed needed at this track. He does have issues with the turns at Flamboro, so he could be a bit better here. I want to see him show he can beat 2 minutes, which he has not yet. He is a long way off the speed Donicus and others show in here.
2 Rose Run Reanna comes in off a break in stride late and 3 weeks out. Blake's stock hasn't done well lately and he is streaky. I will pass on this one tonight.
4 What a Peach did little from the 10 hole last time, but draws better here. In any event, he has been a bit player in any race at this track. I will pass on him until he shows some desire to go after the leaders.
5 Perfect Road was going backwards 2 back then ran at the start last time. On his best day he can take a bunch like this, but he has very few of those. I will pass on him.

RACE 2

7 Lmc Nukular Stryke went a training mile at Flamboro last time off a sick scratch with far better than he can handle, but right back with these, less the winner who beat him last time, he has a big shot to take them all down. This could be a very gapped out field and that helps him avoid any road trouble if he takes back, or leave him room for a breather if he blasts out. Price could be the issue. I don't want less than 5-2 on this guy. I'd expect and hope for 7-2.
8 Man of Many Arts draws the outside, has been off 3 weeks and has burned win money many times this fall and winter. He will be a very big price, and while he is not easy to like, I have seen Gibson bring ones like this many cold winter nights and they turn it around for a start. I will tab him 2nd as a price option. Any of my top 3 are playable and I'd use them all in any pick exotic feature.
4 Sky Guy left out last time but tucked immediately. He stayed put until the turn for home, and at that point was trapped and racing for 2nd money as the long gone winner daylighted the field under wraps. He got that cheque and doesn't have to face him again this time. He has a fair shot to take all of these, if he uses his gate speed to get up closer and doesn't get gutted to keep that position and the flow goes forward this time. He looks better than the two likely faves and I will give him play on the expectation that 4-1 or higher value is there. It should be, and then some.
1 Stonehouse Petey left out hard last time but that left him hung. The cinch winner threw him a bone and let him clear and then retook and said goodbye to the field. This guy raced well, considering it was first time Montini off the claim, and he went fast enough to handle these most nights. However, he did let the 2nd place winner slip up inside him and pass him. That is a concern and being that I expect him to take a short price this time on the "second race tighter, second race new trainer" angle, I will take my chances he is short of whomever is the winner here. He is likely top 3, but not the winner.
2 Hp Black Shadow ran just as the gate sped away last time and disappeared. He had every chance the race before but got picked up then. He is one of those who finds a different way to lose every time, assuming that he is involved, which isn't always anyway. Another I will take my chances against on the overbet, underperformer angle.
6 Earthquake Madness shows nothing to suggest he is in the ballpark of even these hard to like foes.
3 Einhorn continues to leave, travel dangerously and lose drivers who don't want to be aboard when he does something really bad near the top and causes a wreck. In my opinion he should be on the judges list and not allowed to race until he is sorted out. In the meantime, drivers put him in the center of the track to keep him out of harms way and nobody wants to let him go and be behind him. He has 6 starts this year and zero dollars made.
5 Sports Vision was at the back last time, could not keep up, bearing in horribly in the last turn with no advancement. He is impossible to like, even on the Nixon angle.

RACE 3

4 Jagersro  is certainly the wildcard in this bunch. She showed speed and went with decent minor stakes types before being shut down. In her qualifier, she left out, but was gapping from the get go and walked home in a manner that would suggest a second qualifier to get her on the right track before facing racehorses. I frankly don't know what to expect, but I would think a soft rail ride and a brush late if that is in the cards to be the desired trip.  Could that pass all of these? It could. I have trouble even listing anything as the winner here, so its likely a non betting race for me and I'd want my top 5 all evenly in the hope that the longest of the 5 gets up and sweetens the pick 5.  

2 Fashion Star shows flashes of high speed, but also many breaks and when not breaking, gets away way back to keep him trotting. He might grow out of that, as many trotters do, and it could be tonight that he puts it together. It could also be in May. Your call. I will put him up for 3rd and I'd use him in the pick 5.
6 Jayport on Th Edge is sure to get play here, as everybody saw that he got pinned in on the turn and lost many lengths while the leader began to open up. Once free, he came on, got 2nd, and would have reeled in the winner in a few more strides. That was then. He is 0 for 14 now, and he is an excuse pit of broken pari-mutuel promises. I will pass on him here. He likely makes the ticket, but he isn't on my short price radar. I will wait for a better betting spot. He is also bearing in enough in the turns that it hurts him and that needs to be addressed or he is hard to play period.

1 Windsong Magic parked out a long way to make the top in her first try at this track, then tried to walk the 2nd quarter but was swooped and passed by another who trotted all she could to the turn and this one was beat by then. That leader stopped to a walk at the tote board and made this one look like she was coming back on. However, she trotted a back half herself of 1:00.2, which continues her slower back half racing style. If she tries to cut this, which is likely considering her driver loves the front, she probably gets picked up. She was also racky gaited in the last turn when she needed more speed to fend off the winner. If pushed, she very likely could jump it off. 
5 Dead Red Hitter came ready to play Monday night, swooped up in the 3rd quarter and blew by that leader, while opening up enough to safely hold off the only one who had a reasonable shot at him. That probably gets him big time play here, and while I cashed on him at 19-1, I wont be giving any of that back. I simply will not play a green trotter back on 2 days rest, and especially one with breaks all over his resume. Pass.
8 Une Duharas  stayed back and did little last time. I don't see any hope for this one at the A track and she is likely moved out of the barn very shortly. She isn't paying her way.
7 Murphy Paree left and stayed flat last time. That is the good news. On the other hand, she didn't improve her time and backed through a very weak field. I can't go near this one until she shows she can stay flat, leave a bit and not stop to a walk.
3 Stonebridge Peace  has trouble staying flat, and doesn't show much anyway. Can't go near this one.

RACE 4

1 Crown Isle likes to be on the front or the pocket. First up is not his trip, so he sat in the 3 hole when he was outleft and didn't move until the turn, and raced okay, just giving it up very late. Under a different trip scenario, one where he blasts out, protects the rail, and either lets Future Million go and retakes, or sits on his back this time, he is viable for the price. That price would have to be 9-2 or higher. He is very trip dependent and no sure thing even when he gets it.
4 Jac Spade avoids tougher ones that would give him a lot more trouble than these will.....Intended Style, Velocity Headlight, Chicago Hanover, One Warrawee, Just Henry..etc. Christoforou has won with this guy many times before, and knows how much he's got with him and when to move. He doesn't win much anymore, but he pops every now and then. This is the softest spot he can find this winter. Call for 2nd, but I easily could have reversed my top 2 picks.
3 Future Million got the trip he likes last time. He left to make the top, got the breather to the half, no challengers to the top of the stretch, so he went sensible fractions yet was picked up at the wire by the one who pocket sat on his back the entire way. A good overall effort. I'd expect exactly the same trip here, unless Crown Isle gets away good and wants the front with a retake. That wouldn't be terrible for this one if he fell into that trip.
5 Kablooie  was parked the mile from the 10 hole last time and backed up with that excuse. He has decent enough form and a better post here, so if he were to get away 4th or 5th and pick up a live helmet to follow, he has a fair shot.
6 Lost in Panslation got the dream trip last time. He got out fast, beating Crown Isle to the rail, then let the obvious leader go and he carried him to the tote board with no one outside him to make him do anything but wait for the one move to pick him off...which he did....barely. Based on his post position here, he wont get that trip and his shorter price this time means he is likely poor value. Pass.
8 Shiftyn Georgie is one I don't think we've seen before at this track. He arrives off a nice win for 5 at London, claimed by McKinnon and tackling tougher on the rise with the 8 hole. I want to see him once. He is hard to list on the win front at this stage.
2 Buckshot Austin left out last time, stayed in, got a shuffle and came on late for the smallest cheque. The top 4 were all together at the wire but he didn't reach them while the 3rd place finisher came from way back. He just doesn't do enough and I like others better. Pass.
7 Prince Adam did nothing last time to suggest he belongs in with this bunch. He is a big longshot to make the ticket. I'm sure his connections will be happy when Charlottetown starts up again.
9 Big Unit won 1 of 35 last year and draws the 9 hole here for a try at the big track. He was 2nd last time to one who won this class the last time he tried it. If he had drawn better I'd have given him a longshot chance. Spotting them 10 or more at the quarter is enough for me to discard him tonight. I will watch to see if he is legit if there happens to be a 2nd date.
10 Rolandale Buster had no pace last time, and drew the claim. Right back in for 8, but he draws the 10 hole. I can't touch him until he draws a post that will allow him to get involved earlier. Pass.

RACE 5

10 Wichita Lineman was Rocky in against Apollo Creed last time, and we didn't get the Hollywood ending. He took a run at that one, even getting to his wheel, but when it was time Randy just let the other one loose and this one got the worst of that, losing 2nd to another. He wont meet another one like that for a while, even if the 2 is a very nice horse and the 3 has tried stakes colts. I will call him to overcome the post and race back to the impressive effort he put out 2 back to break his maiden.
4 Goodmorningmister was solid last time, leaving for the 3 hole, following along and tipping out in the lane to beat my choice here right on the line. You cannot knock how he has progressed and showed he fits this class and track. Fillion sticks with him and takes him over Moreau's, who frankly is not an impressive racehorse.
2 Dreamfair Mesa took a lot more money last time than the program suggested he should, then floated out like Randy knew he could do what he wanted when he wanted to. He made a move to the lead, then cat and moused a challenger until just after the top of the stretch, then drew off to win with the only legit one pinned on the rail. He was also reluctant to pull first up and could have gotten pinned in, as well as on a line bearing in quite a bit into the last turn and turning for home. On paper, he is strictly the one to beat here, likely at a very short price again. I will go to two others, but he looks tough if he learns from that effort and they can get his head straight. He wont have it so easy when something more talented than Century Churchill comes at him.
6 Scary Harry got away 4th last time, went after the chalk leader after he got a big 2nd quarter breather, and faded at the end as a result. He is tactical and if he can leave like that again and find a helmet, he has a shot to make the ticket.
1 Cool Reward beat nw1 two back, and a sad lot they were. He ran first try with these,and now changes trainers, to a highly respected guy who knows how to right the ship. I don't like him at all in this spot, but I will watch to see if he steps him up.
3 Three Truths other than picking up Big Bang Boom when he went bust bust bust on the engine, this one has been nothing but rat city. Pass for me. He hasn't taken to the Moreau program.
8 Princesss Diamond got away near the back last time, didn't look pretty or like he was going to do anything on the last turn, but got it together in the lane and nabbed 2nd. He is not very sound, but he tries hard and the odd night he can get it done. Trevor goes to Puddy's one, and he gets Phil. I like others better. Overall, he meets tougher ones this time.
5 Rolling Rock left out, stayed in and sat third, had no room much of the way, found a seam and paced home okay, even, but was outpaced by others. I will pass on him again. He just isn't doing enough.
7 St Lads Charger was no factor in the Count B final, nor the leg before that. As with many of Puddy's, they go good for a few starts then fall off the planet sharply. Based on his breeding, this one will be aimed at the Grassroots program in a couple of months, assuming he is still walking. Pass for me here.
9 Think Again wont get anywhere near the top with these from this post. Without that advantage, the big longshot he was anyway makes him a total toss.

RACE 6

This is a tough race to rate. I hate most of the ones who will be the top 4 faves, and the only longshots I can see are impossible to back. So, I go with the non performing ones who occasionally come back to the form they have shown from time to time. Its a stab kind of play. I'd rather lose on them than play favorites I don't like at all or longshots I dont see having any chance.

3 Flexceptional is hard to like on her mid pack form, but one of these nights she is going to blast out of there, wire them or sit a two hole and pop in the lane. I will take my chances that will be tonight. Not confident, but in my view, she looks just as viable as the likely 3 faves in here, with a much better price to risk ratio attached.
5 Harleigh Ryder is worth taking a risk on as a shipper who shows times that are within reach when you allow for the track variant and the weather lately. Those are very loose standards to make a claim like that. Jody and Laver teamed up with Muscle Time to score a bombs away upset, and while this one appears nothing like that one, its possible.
9 Elmo Rockbottom has drawn badly lately at Flamboro, and does so again here. He has won at this track a few times, and mostly it was a big price. I'd give him a minor shot to do that here again.
4 Crowningcrest was a good 2nd to Domitian Hall on his return to this track and Kerwood's barn. He has a shot, but as the likely 2-1 favorite, I have to look elsewhere. I'd have to use him in the pick 4, but I can't justify taking that kind of win price on this one. He doesn't hold soundness very long when he is forced to go faster based on previous history.
7 Townline Momma stayed flat last time, but got the parking ticket and tired. She is reclassified tonight to have a shot, but I don't think its enough. Minor shot if she wakes up, behaves and gets the trip. Even if all that happens, she still has to win.
6 Magical Pumpkin went to the front last time, cut the entire mile, but was wonky and lame the whole way, especially in that last turn. She appears on her last legs and is hard to back with the short price she probably brings in with this sorry lot. Lasix seemed to help her stay at it towards the end, and with many playing the 2nd time Lasix angle, I will play against her. She could easily jump it off this time at some point.
8 Boot Scootin Loral  was claimed back by team Wray, and while there is some form to suggest he can fit in with these, he is a 7yo with a mark of 2:02. Its not enough for me to think he can take these down from the 8 hole.
1 Herecomesthebride has not responded to Moreau's program and I don't see any hope. Pass.
2 See R Chin Win got daylighted by Freddie then was jacked up over her head. Still don't like her one bit. She is a rat.
10 Jimoris Tigeress best bet on the card to not get a cheque tonight.

RACE 7

6 I C Your Shadow left out well  last time, made a move for the top and was travelling well. She let the favorite go, who backed down the tempo and this one got doubled up for just a few steps,  which is enough for her to  interfere and take off running.  Otherwise, she was very live and looked to take a shot at  the winner. I can forgive her for that and  go  back to her here,  even knowing she is an excuse pit of torn tickets type who is in serious futility territory. She does have high speed at times and if the price is right, I will take a shot with her here. Massey takes over and J. Mac ditches her, and Saftic got days again. If Massey can manage Whiteglance and get her across, he can handle this one.
3 Dorabella missed last week, and is the type that leaves, sits, and moves up the rail when others attempt and backpeddle. In a race like this, that gives her a shot to make the ticket, and a longshot chance at coming up the rail to win.
7 Jens Credit left out again last  time, had trouble clearing but got there,  then was looped twice  and seemed  okay with that as she wasn't grabby or racey in the 3 hole. She was run into on the last turn,  but she didn't seem  to be doing much anyway and hung  in  the lane,  almost losing 2nd.  She is likely to keep taking shares, but she has to show more to get my win ticket.
1 Docs Diva was handled carefully again getting away, settled in, then tipped 3 wide to the half to clear a first up hanger going backwards. She did make that lead, but was very steppy again in that last turn, and suspect coming to the wire. She is like her siblings,  in that she isn't pretty out there, but iron tough and tries hard. Another short price is likely here again, and I can't play her as is. When the long price comes, if she is still a maiden, I'd think about her.
8 Bettys Bay  in her return start at 3, she was floated out near the back, started up at the half, made nice progress, with a fast last quarter, but was running in the entire way and that type of thing will cost her if she is near the winner. I will pass on her this time and wait to see if that is a habit.
4 Zealous Seelster stayed mid pack last  time and was an okay 4th.  She is a bit player at this track, as she just doesn't finish like an A track horse. Solid Grand River type when they open with the banked turns if she doesn't get that win and have to face tougher. I will watch her for that a few months down the road. She has nice tactical speed that would be more valuable at a B track.
2 Bad At Redhot has been sold since her last race, as she doesn't look like an A track horse and Hudon doesn't keep those around. I don't see anything to suggest the new connections will get any more out of her. Very nice B track maiden if she shows up at London in March.
5 Inexplicable Ruby went around again last time but did little. I will  pass on her unless I see her show she has two solid moves. At this stage,  she has one medium one.
9 Orch Vicky was tricky to  steer last time and borderline dangerous. Holliday steered  her out into the middle of the track and then followed along once she was in safer waters.  Post 9 tonight, and she will have to do a lot more anyway. Pass for now.
10 Miss Mikela D post 10 and miles over her head. No thanks.

RACE 8

10 Flaherty was very impressive first off the shelf, and first for Budd. He zoomed out of there, let the favorite go, followed him nose to helmet right to the wire, but had no room and just went along for a solid 2nd.  Yes, post 10 is a challenge, but as maidens go, this is a soft bunch and I wouldn't be surprised if he blasts out of there this time and tries to take them all the way. If he does and the 1 wants to cut it and give him cover, even better. Top call, and the price should be there because of the post and the fondness for the 1. The way he travelled in that race, he looks to be a very good one and could do serious damage in the Grassroots this year.
5 Fancourt first time starting Big Jim colt out of the solid mare Catch A Wish, who was impressive in his qualifier and retains Fillion. My 2nd choice. But he is possible right out of the box.
6 Classic News went an even mile last time, following along and pacing in 56, which was much faster than he has seen yet to that point. I think he might be up to these in a couple of starts, and I will watch for his progression. He isn't impossible here if he steps up right away, the 10 gets a bad trip and the 1 coughs it up again.

8 Windsun Falls dropped out of the Count B, but didn't do much last time. Brethour has to be respected and I keep my eye on this guy to pop at some point at long odds. I like others tonight so I feel safe leaving him off. If he turns tonight, I will get beat. 

1 Mohegan Blue Chip  left hard last time, got the top, cut the entire mile and even got a breather in the 2nd quarter. None of that was enough when he was challenged by the winner, who passed him  easily, and the other two beside him either did or were about to. He has no fight whatsoever when he is headed. Another short or shorter price, I will pass.  

9 Silver Bullet was first up last time and backed away. Post 9 this time. Back of the bus and a shot to come late for 4th.
4 Charlie Badlands missed last week and was just okay before that. I like others better. Ticket maybe. Can't see him winning this.
7 Century Churchill moved 2nd over but lost his cover last time, kept at it and actually seemed to get by the leader, who was just toying with him and used him as a trap for the 2 hole rider. I can't touch this one as he appears. He probably will get it done when Georgian or Kawartha opens, and probably for a different trainer.
2 Ganacus Seelster left out last time, was forced to take a 2 hole, which became a 3 hole. He had every chance to go forward late and do better, but he didn't. Pass for me. He doesn't look like any kind of stock to this stage.
3 Fleetwould Mach is impossible to like off the program and replays. He looks to be 15 lengths out of this most of the way. He will have to justify the reason he keeps coming back.

RACE 9

2 Ok Gladiator was wiped out last week by a horse cutting to the rail with no room. He was claimed by Carmen out of that one and gets put in this spot, which isn't any tougher than those were, and he does very well with Mach Three's who just aren't doing enough with other trainers. This is the type he can turn right off the bat.
3 Regal Fame daylighted a field 3 weeks ago in a lifetime best and comes back here off the shelf. That would suggest he came up sick and needed a week off,  then a training mile to get him fit. He is a big player here, but I will call him 2nd in the upset.
5 Real Raye was claimed for 5 three back,  but has not gone forward. He has a reasonably fast mark last year at KD, and longshot potential in here. I went to others, but he is the type this outfit turns at some point.
4 Rock the Dream takes a serious drop in class here, but he has tried these before and come up short. He doesn't travel well and isn't the smartest cat in the alley either. All that being said, he does have speed and Joe C is a cagey guy who finds ways to win with this type of horse.
1 Jenkins Creek went his usual mile last time, which wasn't quite good enough to make the ticket. He is the bit player type and there are a couple in here at least who will probably keep him to that title.
6 Regally Magnified bagged 2 in a row at the B's with these types, but got the parking ticket from post 3 last time at London. He has upset potential, but has not proven he has the high speed the top 2 have shown already many times. I will pass here.
8 Jetster changed hands and came here looking to step up. He didn't. If he was ever going to nab 2nd money, it was last time. He didn't. No thanks from an 8 hole start.
7 Jet Black Cadillac shows me nothing to suggest I shouldn't toss him. So, I did.

RACE 10 

7 Holiday Romance blasted out from  the middle of the gate last time, getting to the quarter first in 26.4. She yielded to a leader who took her the rest of the way, but she was spent just before the tote board and passed by them all when the wire came. She is only 3 and that was the fastest she has even been. Now back in with claimers, she is a viable longshot if she can leave enough to get midpack and save that brush for the end. I could see her in a field with pacers that have Swiss Cheese holes all over them.
4 Twin B Breezeway left out last time, sat as expected,  found late room and got 2nd. A good result and the type of thing she can do off the right trip. I'm sure Fillion will try to get the same one again. She is possible as you can make a case for many of these,  and just as good a case why you should go to bed after the 9th and not play with these Flamboro rats disguised at WEG racehorses.
3 Bella Santanna was claimed for 5 last time as she wired them  at London. Ellis has a sharp claiming eye for these types,  and last year at 3 she won in 56 and change at Grand River. She has to be respected on the quick turn. Shot.
5 Stonebridge Suntan Improved a bit last time. She left out from the 10 hole and kept close tabs the entire way,  going a bit faster than she had been. It was in this class, and she seems to be finding a fit. I'm not ready to send her love notes just yet, but she is on my radar now. Watch for next time. She needs to show now she can work for it. The winner of this race probably goes 55 and change. Based on her record last year at Hanover, that is probably in her wheelhouse  if she is coming back to form. Tab for later.
10 Lady Santana took the long way around last time, and had to go it first over from the half at the leaders wheel. That left her soft for a couple of others. Post 10 here, she is up against it. I will pass this time.
6 Lucky Cocktail got second in this class the last time she was here, and was already double entered at Flamboro, where she drew the rail, left out and used turn advantage to hold the lead, went a soft half and then gunned the 3rd quarter and paced enough in the lane to hold off the pocket sitter. A  true old school Flamboro type win in the deep freeze of the winter. She comes back here and she certainly fits, but there are a few in here who can go with her.
1 Midnight Mayhem drops out of conditions to the bottom claimer looking to make some money. Although Hebert brings in a lot of longshots,  I can't play this one. She has to do more, even with these. Pass.
2 Blushing Promise turned her form last time and got 3rd in a blanket of 3 of them. She isn't always that good and I backed her that night but will go to others here.
8 Art U Coming was galloping well  off the gate last time and never got in  touch with the field.That is the second time  in 4 starts she has done that, and otherwise starts very slowly anyway.  She is a 6yo with a mark of 2:00.1 over KD at 5.  Its hard to see why they would even bring her here when she should be in a 5  claimer non winners at Flamboro.
9 Jinglewriter got away poorly and closed with the pack. Post 9 is an issue for one who doesn't start well.  I can't see her spotting these 15 or more and making all that up. Treen is a tricky guy in terms of form of his. I leave her off, but I am watching for a small sign that can turn into a big price in March.