Friday, July 3, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: July 3, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $11 on Moonlit Dance in the 9th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on
ALLIE LABROOK in the 3rd
Best Place Bet:$11
DOCTOR TERROR on in the 4th
Best Show Bet: $11 on
CHALEURS FANTASY in the 7th
Worst Win Bet:  $10 on SOUTHWIND LUNA in the 11th 

Other Bets
Win $10 on

Place $10 on

Show $10 on


LEGEND
MS---minor shot
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watching for a future play

================================
Race 1

Overall synopsis: A very light bunch from top to bottom. Hard to hang your hat on the top logical ones, and hard to go against them with any of the pathetic longshots who are maidens masquerading as Stakes horses tonight. I don't know that I'm comfortable playing Thoughtful Leader at less than 7-5, which is his likely post time price.

Probable Favorite: THOUGHTFUL LEADER


THOUGHTFUL LEADER  

MSREBEL REBEL  

MSNAMESMUSCLE  

 Play Against:

None   



The rest:

INNKEEPER---is an 0 for 7 maiden who shows promise but meets others who show more. Pass for me.

NSWINDSONG LUXURY---0 for 18 maiden facing stakes placed types and many who aren't even maidens. 

NSJAYPORT ON TH EDGE---in miles over his head at this point.

NSDEMAND AN ANSWER---same as the above one.

MSPARKHILL LANCELOT---his last mile was good enough to consider him for a longshot chance if the top tier aren't that good tonight, and really they aren't that great to start with. I'd add him onto the double tickets.

MSMOLON LAVE---has some upside, but hasn't put it together yet. Post 9 negates whatever early speed he has. Bit player if he stays trotting.

NSSTONEBRIDGE SCORE---hasn't shown he can go with these from a good post, let alone the 10 hole. 
================================
Race 2

Overall synopsis: Pretty much a 2 horse race based on what I see. I went with the 2nd choice, who shows more overall winning determination so far. I'd probably box the two up in an exactor and be done with it. Hard to like the rest even a little.


Probable Favorite: TOP DOLLAR


KADABRASNEWRECRUIT  will get my top call and hopefully bring 5-2 or 3-1. Post is an issue, but he shows some grit when it comes time to trot to the line. Randy is likely to be aggressive with him and I will take my chances.

MSTOP DOLLAR  seems to have his act together now and he is hard to go against as is right now. A short price tonight. Not sure if I want to take that on him, but he is tough to go against as well. 

LCCENTURY BEHEMOTH  ran last time, but has some upside with this very soft bunch if he comes back to his previous line and the chalk runs, which he is prone to do. At 8-1, I think he is playable. 

 Play Against:

None 



The rest:

NSWICHITA JAZZ---?????

NSDUH BUBBEES---coming off 2 breaks and some less than thrilling lines when he stayed flat. Good winter horse. Winter is over now.

NSFEATURED ILLUSION---0 for 13 maiden coming off a break. Pass. And then pass again. And then pass one more time.

MSUP THE ALLEY---0 for 10 and he is hard to like. He has some talent, but just can't seem to put it together.

MSGO GET BRUCE---has not gone forward off his maiden win. At this point, I can't go near him. 

NSJAYPORT ALL MUSCLE---1 for 27 lifetime with the 8 hole in with stakes proven winners when he can't beat anything at this track after his very soft winter score here.

MSCALL ME RICHARD---trotted a good mile last time at Grand River but the 10 hole is a big issue here. Likely to make the super, might even break up the chalk exactor and get 2nd, but can't see him taking them all down. 



================================
Race 3

Overall synopsis: Charmed Life always teases you with big efforts and then stabs you when you play her at the short odds she will bring tonight. She makes most races she is in hard to bet. I like my top choice enough to think she is a solid play if she gets the right trip and brings 7-2, which I think is reasonable to expect.


Probable Favorite: CHARMED LIFE


ALLIE LABROOK  

CHARMED LIFE  

ROCKIN WITH DEWEY  is tough to put 3rd with the speed she has, but I think this race sets up for a closer, and that isn't her. 

 Play Against:

None 



The rest:

RIVETING ROSIE---in tough with these as she is right now.

HARLEY MOMMA---promising and has a shot, but I like others.

CHIVAREE HANOVER---cannot go near her until she stops making so many breaks. 

BAX OF LIFE---bit player as usual. Could hit the ticket if the trip is right and a few don't perform. Same as always with her.

================================
Race 4

Overall synopsis: 


Probable Favorite: KISS ME OR NOT


DOCTOR TERROR  had a very long trip last time getting the parking ticket in the Fan Hanover final. She didn't get beat much, and if she returns tonight to that type of race, she will be very hard to fend off by whoever decides to cut it. Top call. 

KISS ME OR NOT  gets Drury back and drops a shade here. She is the logical play and will take heavy money. I like my top choice for the price and she is a legit filly to sit on this ones back or stalk her and tip off cover to beat her.

MYSTIQUE BEACHBUM  goes first time Moreau. That angle has not been as good lately as it was previously. I will watch to see if he can do something with this mare.

 Play Against:

None 



The rest:

THATLL BE FRANNY---moves up and faces some tough ones tonight. I wil pass on her. Back down two levels, she is worth a look.

ST LADS PENNY LANE---moves up without winning. Pass for me in this spot.

I GOT TO BOOGIE---likes it on the front but has trouble getting there with the better ones. I doubt she gets it here and if she does, she will pay a heavy price she likely can't afford.

WILDCAT HANNA---is probably a pretty good play from a decent post a step lower. Not with some of these tonight.

SOUTHWIND MISCHIEF---doesn't seem good enough at this stage to go with some of these who have beat far better. Solid Grassroots filly between starts.

LIGHTS GO OUT---The wildcard in the bunch. If she were really good, she would be right there with these tonight. It's just tough to get a read on where she is at. I will pass on her tonight and just watch.

================================
Race 5

Overall synopsis: I took 3 longer shots I think have a reasonable shot to wake up or rebound off a bad line. Any of those 3. I like my top choice best, but barely.


Probable Favorite: ONTHEROAD DE VIE


PILGRIMS JOY  

IRISH SCOTCH  

MANDEVILLE  

 Play Against:

ONTHEROAD DE VIE is 0 for 18, and the hard trips have to be wearing on him at this stage. I suppose if he makes front, he can make the ticket. But to beat these, he'd have to show me a grit he has not brought to the table yet. No matter what style he employs, it doesn't get him better than 2nd or 3rd. These aren't a tough bunch, and he is the poster child for that sentiment. 



The rest:

EASTON ROAD---an interesting entry and has longshot potential. Was tossed right into the Grassroots last time at Grand River and came away with 2nd. He might even take heavy play, and I would not be going near him at this stage. Jody takes over here.

THEREGOESTHEGROOM---comes in after a 3 race maiden beatdown at Rideau. If you watch Rideau, you would know most of those are considered successful if you get them to the quarter flat and keep them flat the whole way. So, while he is a winner, he has beat up on terrible losers. He will find the going much tougher here. The jury is out, but my likely call is that he is driven carefully to make 4th money and see if it is worth shipping for more tries. 

MACHO MASS---broke his maiden impressively, but has gone backwards since and Per takes back over. I have to see something more from him to back him in any race, let alone an OSS.

SMORE PIE PLEASE---his last two are horrific, and the last quarters even worse than that.

LETS BE HONEST---got up last time at Grand River, but post 9 is a big issue for a horse like this. I like others better for tonight. If he happened to get away top 3 and was able to sit and come back out in the lane, he has a shot. That is a tough trip to count on getting.

SEEKING STEVEN---is the type that hangs around and gets lots of 2nd's and 3rd's. Post 10 pretty much ensures that is the best you can hope for here. I doubt he makes the ticket.
================================
Race 6

Overall synopsis: At first I was tempted to go to the likely less than even money chalk. And make no mistake, he is very dangerous. But, 3 weeks away concerns me, and I will play my other choice, hoping for 9-5 or 2-1, which would be very good value. Jack Darling sends them ready to win.


Probable Favorite: THE CATAMOUNT KID


HEAVYMETAL HANOVER  first time starter for Jack Darling, and Jody takes his dads horse, as you would expect. If my 2nd choice is short for whatever reason (he has missed 3 weeks) this is the likely one to beat him.

THE CATAMOUNT KID  looks very tough to beat with this bunch. He has speed that is mature at this point, Jody will not be babying him with father Carl as the owner, and I'm guessing he is being aimed at the Grand Circuit if he pans out in the next two weeks. Even at 4-5, he looks like a good bet. But I will play another. The 3 weeks away is a concern and at 4-5 or so, I think its a bad percentage play.

STONEBRIDGE BEACH  you don't see Pouliot stray from Rideau very much. He must think he has something here and wants to test him. Certainly one to watch.

 Play Against:

None 



The rest:

EMPEROR---will need a lot more speed than he has shown in one appearance to go with many of these.

CAROLINA HURRICANE---would be a toss if not for Ron Adams as trainer. I still can't use him, but first time Adams, and on maidens, is a  very profitable angle.

MCPHIL---shows very nice last quarter speed, and will likely pace in 55 or less here. I think that lands him 3rd or 4th, coming late, finishing good and pushing him towards wherever he is going on a positive. He isn't impossible, but I can't see him being raced very hard for not much money tonight.

CHALK PLAYER---made a break first time out, but kept it together last time and paced a strong mile. I like others in this spot, but he is one to watch to see how he improves. Likely headed to the first Grassroots.

ONLY HALF BAD---homebred who also shows nice finishing speed, but will probably be sitting well back early and not likely he can pass the better ones off the program page.

BEARLY A SECRET---very tough spot for one who has been off a month sick and draws the 9 hole. Pass.

================================

Race 7

Overall synopsis: 


Probable Favorite: DELIRIUM


CHALEURS FANTASY  was solid in her first try at this track but couldn't pass the winner who got away with soft fractions and was accelerating at the same time she was. She will surely draw more attention this time, and I'd still take 7-2, but not much less to play her. Fillion is hot and he does well with these types. She might even draw the claim tonight.

SUCKITUPBUTTERCUP  I list for 2nd. She has the ability to blast and daylight them for as long as that works. Like many of these, you don't know if she will show up that night.

BYE BYE MICHELLE  completely trip dependent mare, who I call for 3rd, but wouldn't play for the win. She would be better from an inside post where she has a better shot at getting the trip she likes. 

 Play Against:

DELIRIUM  got it done last time, barely, and everything went her way. I will be happy to take that short price this time. There are a few that look good enough to beat her. It only takes one. She isn't likely to get that ridiculous breather on the front end like last time. Without that, she usually gets picked up by something.

The rest:

SHHH ITS A SECRET---beat some very bad conditioned claimers at Georgian, many of whom have raced here and been soundly trounced. I wouldn't take a short price on this one, and the Nixon/Trevor combo does not return a very good ROI. Pass for me.

KNEE SLAPPER---draws better here, and is in the mix for the Super, but I don't prefer her. She has lameness issues, as discussed previously and that compromises her when it counts. She is tough and tries hard, so that keeps her competitive.

TON OF LUCK---beat a short field of terrible ones last time, even by this classes low standards, but she isn't likely to get that trip again and have enough room to run in horrible and still win.

BIG TREAT---is 2 for 30 the last two years, and like most Mr. Big's, she has trouble winning races. Pass for me. She is likely more dangerous in the winter.

ALOT OF SENSE---McNair ditches her. That is enough for me when you add the 10 hole.

================================
Race 8

Overall synopsis: I play Buzz as a live horse with a shot. I really don't like this entire field and will just watch unless Buzz is a big price, in the 7-1 or higher range, which is unlikely.


Probable Favorite: NEW MUSCLE AS


BUZZ  

NEW MUSCLE AS  

ARRAKIS  

 Play Against:

None  

The rest:




================================
Race 9

Overall synopsis: Class and speed likely hold here. I went with that. The balance look like pretenders to the top pick.


Probable Favorite:MOONLIT DANCE 


MOONLIT DANCE  post 10 doesn't hurt her like it does some. She doesn't need to be up close, as she will just range out wide and explode coming out of the turn. She meets a pretty weak group, relative to the top company she has kept and beaten lately. Top call. 

BEYONCES ROCKN  has a minor shot if the chalk fails. she has good last speed and comes well if saved.

CAVIART SCARLETT  to pick up the pieces only. Can't see her being up to this challenge.

 Play Against:

IMAGINE DRAGON blasted by them last time and coasted home. This field is much deeper. She will have to work harder to get to the top if she wants it. I don't see it. 

LINDYS OLD LADY  tripped out and came late last time. The one she beat looked horrid last night and she meets many who appear tougher here. I think she is in deep with this bunch.

The rest:

NATIONALIZE---might be an okay Grassroots filly. These appear to be beyond her reach.

ABBIJADE HANOVER---hangs around and improves every week. I'm not sure she is up to the best in here, but as with last time, she can make the ticket if things break her way.

SOUTHWIND GEISHA---Trevor was half in, half out with her and then decided to stay in. She is a bit of a grinder and trip horse, and likely looking for 3rd or 4th here. 

LIVING HISTORY---hung bad last time, a trait she has developed. Until she shows me something more, she wont see my money until she finds a soft nw2 field.

INVEST IN ART---was hard used to make the lead last time, and bagged it on the turn. She appears to have hit a wall at this point. Pass until she finds a better spot.




================================
Race 10
Overall synopsis: I will pass on this entire bunch of rats. Hardly a stakes bunch, but more like a preview of conditioned claimers at Flamboro come November. 


Probable Favorite: ITS HUW YOU KNOW


================================
Race11

Overall synopsis:


Probable Favorite:


ZIP CODE ENVY As good as any, if the trip works out.

TWIN B HONOUR  

P L HURRICANE  

 Play Against:

SOUTHWIND LUNA looked dog lame parading last time, and was really feeling that pinch down the lane. Carmen took her, and he goes to work with a shoeing change and bridle change, which is his method when he gets a new one. Change everything he can find in the book. Otis Hall is a pretty sharp guy. I am suspicious any of that will work. He tagged her for a reason and got CA to take the bait. We shall see. 



The rest:

VICTORIA SEMALU---

BETTOR OUT WEST---

MAPPOS MOENHAY---

MACARENA MAMA---

UNIQUE ROCK N ROLL---

ONYOURMARKNATAVA

Thursday, July 2, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: July 2, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 on MS MAC N CHEESE in the 8th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on
KIKISKISSINKOUSIN in the 4TH
Best Place Bet:$10 on
DELIGHTFUL HILL in the 3RD
Best Show Bet: $10 on
LOOKSLIKEACHPNDALE in the 5th
Worst Win Bet:  $10 on  UNITALIANO in the 2nd

 Other bets

$10 Show on  in the 


LEGEND
MS---minor shot
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watching for a future play


================================
Race 1

Overall synopsis: 2 year old trotting fillies, most unseen. Crapshoot. 

Probable Favorite: READY ANY TIME


READY ANY TIME  Is out of a very nice trotting mare, who made 400k, has trotted a fast mile already, clean--her second clean line--and has a top trainer and noted driver who is good with young trotting fillies. She seems to have a bit more gate speed than many of these, and if she gets away clean and gets a soft half, she would be very tough to beat. You will likely be taking a short price to back her,  and I'd say 7-5 is my bottom limit. And that is pushing it. 

LIBERTY LANE  is two for two in the baby races, and now meets some others who have done well in those but left faster and gone faster overall. That doen't mean she can't do the same, but I'd only use her as a backup to my top choice on the chance she runs. If she does not, I'm not certain this one has achieved the type of speed she needs....yet. 

SILKY FLASHY NFAST  is a half sister to Rockin With Dewey, who is also very fast, but took some time to get her act together. I'd want to see this one at least once before I touch her. No play for me tonight, but she is logical to make the ticket if she trots the whole way.

 Play Against:

CASH BONUS put the trotting hopples on last time, after two breaks at the gate. 



The rest:

WINDSONG CHANCE---certainly has to be respected as a pupil of Beaver, and she has done okay in the preps. I like others better here, but I will be watching her, and all the rest, to see how they look in the flesh for the Sire Stakes tries. 

DANISH DARBY---looks as good as any of them but will have to be seen. Bax/P. Mac combo must be respected, and they win with a lot of first time trotters.At this stage, maybe this one is a couple of steps behind the top ones in here, and will develop within the month, aimed at the Sires Stakes in August. She is a prospect at this stage, as most are. The next few weeks will shake out the good ones from the ones going back to the field for the winter.

CRAZY WILD DESIRE---has a big time dam and good connections, but doesn't look ready to compete at this point. 9 hole only adds to my thoughts that she is out for a trip tonight to gain more experience at 50-1 plus. She needs to take about 3 seconds off her time to even be in the mix for the ticket at this stage.

COULD IT BE MAGIC---One thing about Wayne Henry, which is a Henry family trait, is that the 2yo's come to the races ready to compete and make money right away. They don't keep the aged ones, so they get whatever they can early. Longshot chance if she can get away good and a few others self destruct, leaving her a soft trip to come back on again from in the lane. Exactly the trip he got last week for his 2yo trotting colt who was 2nd at boxcar odds.
================================
Race 2

Overall synopsis: Same as race 1, but colts this time. It's a tough double to play if you are playing it.


Probable Favorite: UNITALIANO BI


V FOR VICTORY  has upset potential from the 10 hole. Young trotters, if they can step off the gate very fast, negate the bad post. This might be one of those. I'd be looking for a price, at least 5-1 and maybe closer to 7-1, depending how he looks parading. The main issue is he made the lead in 32, but he showed very quick speed finishing. The unknown factor is whether A Mac will attempt to use it at the start. On any aged horse, that is a given. 

DEWEYLOVERNLEAVER  has finished well in both qualifiers, once cutting it, the other time closing into the speed. That is the type of versatility you like to see from a young trotter and adds to his appeal, which is already high with the Beaver/Trevor Henry combo added to the mix.

SKYFLEX  ships in from Trois Rivieres off two decent qualifiers with the idea to see if he is good enough to leave here and compete in the Grassroots in the coming weeks. The jury is out. I like the 2:04 mile over that bull ring track. That is probably 59 and change mile here and another second improvement with Luc puts him in the mix if he is as the page suggests. Have never seen him, so, post parade is key.

 Play Against:

PAVO in typical Eddie Green fashion, he has sent this green 2yo twice and had him stop outright once and get passed easily the other time. I can't back him when I see that kind of lunacy. He might be the leader at the half, but that wont concern me. Unless a whack of them run and he gets off on his own, I expect he gets swamped coming out of the turn. 


UNITALIANO BI  looks impressive enough for Jones, who holds the lines tonight. I will pass on him and his likely short price and take his action. As mentioned elsewhere, the Manofmanymissions might have gait issues, and this one doesn't have the trotting hopples on yet. His qualifiers are impressive. No doubt about that.

The rest:

IM A MATE---is one I would toss immediately until I see something to make me think otherwise. A break on the card, which is not a big deal for most, but terrible connections who have trouble making the aged ones behave, let alone a green 2yo.

WILLYORWONTHE---at one time Bill Megens was a big time player with young trotters. That time has passed. I can't go near this one unless I see something on first viewing.

DIVIDE N CONQUER---has a big time speed pedigree, but is also likely to be erratic and hot on the track until some experience kicks in. I will just watch tonight. This trainer/driver combo had a lot of 2yo trotters run last year.

ANDOVERS CHOICE---showed nice back half speed and is one to watch...just watch tonight to see if he can get down to the half like that and keep going...flat. 

DERIVATIVE---total pass for me. Not enough speed yet, post 9 and Blair drives. Blair rarely drives unless they are a work in progress.

================================
Race 3

Overall synopsis: Is Wrangler Magic just too good for this bunch. Probably. But those were tough miles she went to win the Fan Hanover. That can take a toll. A short price awaits anyone who wants to go back to her. I'd be more inclined to use her and two others in an exactor box on the chance she gets picked up by a price horse, or two.


Probable Favorite: WRANGLER MAGIC


WRANGLER MAGIC  might have a gear some of these don't. None of these have beat 1:50 yet, but she has and she has beaten the best 3yo's out there. If she is as is, then she is the best here. That means you take 3-5 or so, and I'm not certain I want that. There are capable ones behind her, and if she were to have an off night, she isn't that much the best in my view. Your call. 

DELIGHTFUL HILL  has developed well and can't be discounted here. She was in total control last time and has taken to Carmen's program like a fish to water. He clicks with certain types, and she might be one of those. If the heavy chalk is going down here, she could be the one. Note that Ride Away Shark jogged last time, but couldn't get near her the time before when they met.

CAST NO SHADOW  won her last, but the ones behind her are mediocre lower conditioned types. That doesn't mean she can't go with these, because she has beaten ones just as good when on her game and getting the right trip. I think she is 3rd best here, but she has enough upside I'd use her on top to be safe. For the win, I'd want 3-1 minimum.

 Play Against:

TESSA SEELSTER is really good right now, but she meets another level of filly who she can't boss around. Her last try with them found her repelled and flat at the end. Same here I think. She is improved, but not up to the top 3 here, in my view. 



The rest:

LOVELY ERIN---was well beaten last time and seems to have found a level, which is likely a solid Grassroots filly. She is already in the final for the Town Pro and has a solid shot at winning that, so this is a nice tune up for her and maybe she makes third and takes home 12k. I can't see her doing any better against some pretty tough customers here. She was on the left line bad to the first turn and bearing out horrible in the lane. That is a sign of trouble. 

RIDE AWAY SHARK---pushed the car away last time and took no prisoners. It wasn't a tough bunch, and while she is much improved, she still needs at least 1 more second to get up to the best in here. I don't see that yet. Back in a Grassroots, she is dominant. In here, she is one of many who pick up the pieces if the chalks fail. Not tonight for me.

WIN THE GOLD---was good for a stretch last year, but she doesn't seem up to this bunch currently. I'd have doubts to even play her in a Grassroots, let alone a Gold with a Grand Circuit winner. She'd need to drop two seconds to have a shot at getting her picture taken tonight. I don't see those anywhere. 

================================
Race 4

Overall synopsis: Can Miley's Big World do it again? If you think she can, she handles these. If not, there are a few options to look at, and my top 3 all use different styles but can win off the trip they seek if they get it and Miley faces the Wrecking Ball tonight.


Probable Favorite: MILEYS BIG WORLD


KIKISKISSINKOUSIN  has seemed to come back around to good form, something she is known for. If she can get out near the top again and find a nice breather, or live helmet to follow, she has a legit shot to beat them all at fair odds. I'd be looking for 7-2, but would take 3-1 if she parades okay. She doesn't always. Watch her for that. 

SAUBLE CLAIRE  is very sharp right now and can do it on the engine, first up, or from behind. That scores her big points with this group. I don't think these are much tougher than the ones she has been facing and beating, and at 9-2, I'd use her.

M G JADE  closed up nicely for a share last time, and generally has come around for Carmen, who does very well with Mach Three foals and fillies and mares in particular. I think the price might be too short tonight, in the 3-1 range, and I wouldn't take that price. I'd certainly use her in the pick 4 and in exactor boxes if I go that route.

 Play Against:

ANDRO MADI is very insistent on having the front, and that might work at the B's in short and soft fields, but here, as with last time, it costs her at the tote board. I think she draws a short price again, and I will take that action.  


MILEYS BIG WORLD  was perfectly driven last time to arrive at just the right time, something CC is well known for. Tonight, you are looking at 7-5 or less, and I will take that action. She doesn't strike me as the type that will last long on sharp form. There are enough possibilities in here to take her if she isn't as good as the last two times. 

The rest:

C C CALLMEKELLY---0 for 53 the last two years, and it goes back farther than that. No thanks. I don't even like her in a non winners 5 at London.

LOTTERIA---an older mare who wins the odd 5 at the B's when the trip works out and her class shows up enough to get it done. Tonight, she races at Mohawk.

KENDAL GUCCI---is making breaks again, something she did at the B's in the winter. She is good when she is good, but once she goes off, she is no good at all. She gets her 6th different driver in a row. That is not a good sign.

ALL CHOCOLATE---closed up with the pack last time, but that is currently all she offers. If you make her work for it, she backs up or hangs. If she were to trip out, she could use that one swift move to pass tired ones. Minor longshot chance tonight on that possibility.

================================
Race 5

Overall synopsis: These are usually tough to sort, and tonight is no different. Mixed bag and it mostly depends how close they are to their actual program form when they show up. I'm not big on Vernon qualifiers, although Antonacci is good and he does very well with Zeron. That will draw a short price on him, and I will go elsewhere.


Probable Favorite: ONEIDA


LOOKSLIKEACHPNDALE  is getting started late, but at times last year, he looked like a very nice prospect.

I JASMIN  was excellent last time and the talent has always been there. I will watch tonight, as I think this is a tough group for her to beat, but she could make the ticket if the trip works out. She has lots of go.

 Play Against:

STEEL RESERVE made the top last time in a maiden in slow time and simply sped up to beat the only legit challenger that could go with him. These are tougher, and while I think the speed is there, it might be a few before we see it and CC will drive him to come late and do it right, which means he likely gets 3rd or 4th but is no threat to whoever the winner is.

ONEIDA  is very lightly raced and has been passed around a bit. Antonacci got him going in the right direction with two qualifiers, the last one in fast time at Vernon. That will draw the short price tonight, and I will be happy to take it. I like my top pick much more than this one, and I think the odds will be reversed in terms of the way the public views it.

The rest:

GRANA PADANNO---didn't fire at all last time, and this is a fairly tough group. I will pass on him. He is going to have to step up to 55 land and I don't see that speed from him yet, if at all. The jury is out. Tonight, not bothering with him. 

FASHION TAGMAN---shows flashes of brilliance, and then looks horrid. Whatever it was that was bothering him last year ended up putting him on the shelf, and he took many tries and  two noted trotting fixit men to get him back to the races. Doug Hie is good with these types, but he is not the best driver period, so I will watch one time and see where the horse is at. Can't see him tonight with this bunch.

PISCEAN---gets J Mac as Fillion chooses the better long term prospect, and this one has pretty spotty form. Really good sometimes, then terrible other times. Her breeding would suggest that will continue to be the case, and I will watch her tonight.

RAILEE PRITI---needs about 2 seconds more to go with the top 2 or 3 here, and I don't see that. Back in with Grassroots fillies, she is way more dangerous. Pass tonight.

OCEANA---is the feast or famine type. Crazy speed when she behaves, but its anyone 's guess when the gate speeds up if she will get away good enough to use it. I will pass on her from this post with this relatively tough bunch.

MAGICAL PUMPKIN---post 10 and the move from maidens to nw2 types , some of who are stakes quality is enough to pass on this one for tonight.



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Race 6

Overall synopsis: As with most times in this class, you need many to get past this leg if you are going the pick 4 route. I rated 4 of them, and I'd think the winner is in that bunch. Trip wins the race. Who gets it? Generally you go with more versatile types with better drivers.


Probable Favorite: CHOSEN HOMBRE

SURPRISE HANOVER---finally draws inside the 9 hole, and I rate him a decent longshot chance tonight. Fillion chooses Kindly Poet, so this guy gets Saftic tonight. Maybe a new set of hands might change his luck.

WEB CAM  looks like this is the right spot for him, and he gets a better post here. He isn't racing bad, and only fits the condition because of the company he has kept and the post he got last time. I'd use him in the pick 4, but less than 2-1 would make him unattractive to me. 

CHOSEN HOMBRE  seems like a pretty legit favorite, but also very beatable. He just doesn't seem to get it done, and that is troubling, even when he has every chance.


 Play Against:

None 


The rest:

HAIL THE TAXI---I thought of rating this one first or second, because they all win eventually. But then I thought about all the ways this one could lose,  and those were so many to think he gets it done. Which means he probably will at a price tonight. If that happens, I wont have him. I would need in the big boxcars type of payout, and that wont be there tonight.

FOREVER JUST---needed to bottom out at Grand River last time to score. And he didn't exactly slay them. I will pass. He is just one of those who seems like he should be better on the drop, but isn't.

KINDLY POET---tried what Forever Just did, but he went to KD, and ever easier score, but he didn't get it done. His time has passed in my view to win races at WEG. Either they retire him or he dukes it out in low end claimers very soon. He is a warrior, but even warriors have their day and move on to something else. His time  to do that has come. 

CIONA BROMACH---shows little to suggest he can pass the majority of these. B track horse racing at the wrong track in my estimation. 

GET AROUND TOWN---is one I would have used if the post was better and the driver was somebody else. Another day , a different driver, I'd look him over.

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Race 7
Overall synopsis: 


Probable Favorite: CHEEKIE


BET ON HILL  big class dive, new trainer, much better post and a driver who knows how to driver her. Top call, but I'd be looking for 3-1 to make her viable. 

TABOO SEELSTER  has come alive for Kyle Fellows, and these are now in her wheelhouse. I like my top pick better, but only slightly.

GLISSANDO  ships in from Rideau off a gate break and park out job. Galucci takes over, and that is the only reason I list her for 3rd.

 Play Against:


CHEEKIE  goes back in with claimers, and will take a lot of action. She is going to be tough to take down, but she has been good for 6 or 7 weeks now, and that is not likely to hold. Bourassa is likely moving her tonight with this class alteration, and that tells me he thinks its time to take the money and run. 

The rest:

STONEBRIDGE SUPERB---bad form and Billy D. Pass. 

OUTLIER---seems like a mid pack type at this track. The last time she dropped into a claimer, she took heavy money and bombed. I haven't seen anything that changes my opinion that will happen again.

FROSTY DELIGHT---looked good last time on the track and came on for a solid 2nd. Lets see if she can put two back to back together.

ON THE RISE---over her head with this bunch.

MARIGOLD BLOOM---Northfield rat who is better off at the B's.

ELECTRICINTENSIONS---couldn't hold 3rd in a really bad bunch last time. Bad post tonight. No shot.

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Race 8
Overall synopsis: Two horse race. Who do you like? I had a hard time picking between the two. I will probably play an exactor with whichever I like best on top. MS Mac N Cheese really impressed me last time how she handled aged mares.


Probable Favorite: SOLAR SISTER


MS MAC N CHEESE  I am going to her on top, because I like my top 2 about the same, but the price will be much better I think on this one. When I have two like that, I go for the higher price. You get beat some, but overall you make more profit. It should be a good race.

SOLAR SISTER  is one tough customer and she can grind even the best down. She will meet one who is tough to grind down. It could be a very long stretch duel. 

CAPELA  came through last time as the heavy fave, but she is back in with bearcats. She appears to be more of a Grassroots filly at this point, but she can get 3rd here. Not too tough a bunch after the top 2. 

 Play Against:

None


The rest:

EVAS GIRL---In the mix, but she will have to do more to go with the top 2, who clearly have a pretty big edge on the balance of the field.

SPORTS CHIC---Tough spot to start out first of the year. Watching, but she would be likely 3rd if she is fit tonight.

FRANNEY LOVE DAT---hard to see how a filly who cant beat low end condition fillies will tackle bearcats. Suspect even in a Grassroots if you asked me.

MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS---not with this bunch.



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Race 9
Overall synopsis: 


Probable Favorite: COZY BEACH


COZY BEACH  top bred and Casie has them ready. I'm looking for 2-1 here to make her viable. 

SHES LIGHTS OUT  first timer out of a solid mare.

NOONE TO DEPEND ON  could have rated her first. Impressive first start and should go forward.

 Play Against:

None 




The rest:

TWIN B PRECIOUS---

MISS PRINT---

CHARMING HILL---impressive last quarters. she looks like a pretty nice prospect and one to watch.

ACTION BIG---

BAD IN PARADISE---



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Race 10
Overall synopsis: 


Probable Favorite: GLAMOUR SEELSTER


GLAMOUR SEELSTER  much the best, obviously, if she remains as is. 

ROCK HER WORLD  first time Lasix, Menary/Jody. Beware. 

SOUTHWIND GINGER  solid last time, but no match for the winner who she meets again.

 Play Against:

WANDA BAYAMA tried to wire them last time, but her issues caught up with her again. 




The rest:

JACLYN HANOVER---improving, but still not good enough to win at this track.

COTTONWOOD CREEK---beat maidens, and is progressing, but some of these have a bit of an edge on her currently. 

MUCH ADOO---bit player with these as of now.

ARTIAWITCHTOYOU---tailing off a bit. She will come back around. I like others tonight ahead of her. She wouldn't shock me.

ARRIVISTA HANOVER---no shot.

ENNISTYMON---post 10 again. No shot.





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