WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 22, 2015

Overall Bets: $
 Best Win Bet: $10 win on Flexceptional in the 3rd
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win on Windsong Glamourous in the 10th
Best Place Bet: $8 place on Windsong Glamourous in the 10th
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Peppermint Patti in the 2nd
Best exactor bet: $2 exa box  4-6-7 in the 2nd
  Longshot exactor bet:  $2 exa pw 6 with 2,3,4,7 and 2,3,4,7 with 6 in the 10th $16
Best Exotic Bet: : $20c pick 4... 2,3,4,6 with 1,5,6,9 with 3,6 with 3,5,8,10 in the 7th
Worst Bet: Slight Touch to win. $8

 Race 1

Bets

Stanleysontheway  $8 to win
Freddie                     $6 to win

Stanleysontheway is a very impressive colt. Big, strong, fast and seemingly gritty. But, like most Muscle Mass's, he looks erratic. McNair handled him expertly last time, making sure to keep him in contention without risking him blowing up. I think he does similar again, and if he stays close enough, takes this bunch, which doesn't appear as strong as the favorite he took down last time. 

Freddie is fast. And he is a Sire Stakes winner. 2nd off the shelf, and he is likely raced harder tonight. He was 3 deep while trotting 28 flat in the 3rd quarter last time. And that bunch was far tougher than these. If he doesn't have to work for it as hard, he has an edge on talent on most of these. Solid 2nd pick if you want to avoid the risky top choice. He seems to be over his breaking issue at the end of last year, but he needs to start better again. Tonight, he might.

 
Game On Hanover certainly can't be faulted for her post 10 score last time. She was full value. She moves up here, but so do all the contenders. I am leary to take the short price on her here, but would not play against her. I will use her in the double, but avoid her otherwise. I think my top choice is the far superior prospect and talent, but....in any given race with these types, anything can happen. 



 Play Against:

 
Cool Creek Valley goes first time Moreau from a novice trainer. While that is a great angle, and we have seen far worse young trotters lately turn their form and talent on a dime when Moreau becomes the boss, this one faces others who wont be easy to take down, even with a lot of improvement. If the program is to be believed, Moreau has had her only 7 days. I'm certain she gets hammered on the first time Moreau, Trevor driving angle. I will play against her and the short price.

Lady Ping finally got it done last time, with a little help from the only two contenders who both blew up before the gate left. That was all it took. Not likely to see a repeat of that here. She might just live in this class while she earns a nice living in the Grassroots this summer. 

 Race 2

Bets

Peppermint Patti  $8 to win
Shutthefrontdoor $6 to win

Peppermint Patti has won me over. Some horses just change and improve. It is only stubborness that ignores that. I have to view her now as she is, not how she was. She is just one of those that clicked in with age. These aren't tough, and she is sharp as a tack. Top call, with confidence.

Shutthefrontdoor appears to be the danger. She is fast, and has come along for Sinclair, who is one of the best out there. He can never be ignored and races them where they will do. She is in the mix, but a likely shorter price than my choice. Hard to separate them.

Play Against:

 
Drivingthedragon off her last 3, she is impossible to like. Auciello loves to go the lasix route, but he hasn't yet with her. That tells me its something else, possibly a tie up issue. I just can't see her lasting against many of these who are way sharper, and possibly talented than her. So far, when pushed, she folds. Unless she shows me otherwise, I will continue to believe that. These aren't soft.


 Race 3

Bets

Flexceptional  $10 to win

Flexceptional is just the type of horse that either finds trouble or gets herself into it. Eventually she will get a favorable clean trip. She was a solid 2nd last time, and none of these look currently like they could beat the one that beat her. From the middle of the gate, she blasts this time. Jody has hinted a few times trying to leave with her but she didn't get there. Tonight, she goes coast to coast.

 

Go Get Bruce moves up after an impressive maiden score. But, he didn't beat much and there are some seasoned tough cookies here. I am on the fence on this one. So, I will call him for 2nd and leave him alone. For now. In a month, he might be the best of this bunch.

 Play Against:

Mass Rail has been racing well but didn't look good coming after the leader last time. Moreau doesn't get them all going. I will go against her tonight, and the likely short price again. My top choice blasted by her last time when free. I view her as the better filly, with trainers of equal ability.
 
Alfa Mersaides moves up from maidens without winning, because she had won before. Those types rarely get it done, and her last to 2nd style wont pass the majority of the contenders in here. Some of them maybe, not all of them.


 Race 4

Bets

Other than the top two choices, who I am going against, its hard to like one of the rest, or pick them to win. So, I wont. It's one of them, but I haven't a clue which. If you are playing pick 4, I would play all, or if you are a bit more daring, all but the top 2 I am playing against and maybe another you think you can exclude. Excluding is dangerous here. I think a bomb is in the ground here ready to blow.



Play Against:

A Lot of Sense certainly has talent and appears sharp. However, she has a history of going off form fast, as most of these types do. Very short price tonight, and I will go against her. She is dangerous, but erratic.

Frosty Delight goes first off the claim for Fletcher. I can see her going backwards, not forwards. She isn't the type you can blast out of there, and Jody is the type to try that anyway. It says here she goes in the wrong direction on the far turn.
 Race5

Bets

None

So many of these could step up, as is the norm with this class. So, I wont bother to try and figure that out 7 hours before post time without seeing them on the track. I will just play against the likely shortest priced horse I can see blowing up. I would say to watch the post parade and look for something...both good and bad that might bring value. I will be doing that.


  Play Against:

Climb Higher has always appeared to have that crazy talent that most Muscle Hill's do. He put it together last time for team Baillargeon. He is just as capable of going the other way this time.


 Race 6

Bets

None.

Lights Go Out was her old self last time, and looked a cinch winner coming to the wire. As per his fatal flaw, Phil stopped driving her for a bit, and she got passed on her inside by one who had tripped out. Tonight, they will be all over her, and she has a habit of going bad just as fast as she goes good. I will avoid her tonight, and slot her 3rd. Phil needs to wake up and start driving like a good driver again. His mistakes are piling up lately and he is going to be off the circuit if this persists. He is on the clock now. I will watch this one. I can't play him and this one at the short price tonight. Last time was the time to cash. He blew that.

 

Oceanview Bindi is another to consider with this wide open grab bag. She likes the front, her driver likes the front and she will get it again this time. She could hold on. I'd use her in the pick 4. She needs things to go right for her to last to the wire.

Eat Me Up has longshot potential here. These are her kind, this is her proper class level and you don't win 392k without beating some decent horses along the way. The price would be right. Another to use in the pick 4. 

Play Against:

None. I wouldn't be all that surprised if any of the 10 of these won this. No books for me.


 Race 7

Bets

Twin B Wrangler  $6 to win

Intended Style $6 to win 
 

Twin B Wrangler went coast to coast, and around the shore to get there last time, lucking into a fading Crown Isle who had nothing and laid down for him. He can certainly do that again, and he gets my top call at a fair price. He has a shot. 

  Intended Style is likely to gun out and then let my top choice go. He trips out, he is another who can win this. Use him, but not if the price is short like last time.

Forego the Cigar Jarvis wises up and lowers the tag to draw better. This horse just doesn't leave though, so instead of getting away 10th, he likely gets away 8th. That still doesn't do much for him. He is possible, but I have to see him do something positive before I can play him. I have seen him do that before, so I wouldn't play against him either. 

As with these mostly, its fairly wide open. Take the price and take a few or more than a few for the pick 4 finale. It could make your ticket.

Play Against:

Slight Touch. Bettors just love the first time Montini, off the claim angle. I think its an overbet one, and this guy has been good, but spotty at Rideau. The fields are short and not deep there. These aren't bearcats, but many of them look a lot better than him. He gets hammered tonight, I book that action. Beat me. 
 
Rave On looked pretty lame in the post parade and scoring out last time. However, he is a warrior and he gutted it out again. I think he is better suited for an 8k than this, so I will book his action. Phil doesn't win that many lately, so the odds are in my favor here. He wont be super long off that last good finish. 


 Race 8

Bets

None

Waasmula I fucking hate this mare. Hate her. So, let me repeat. I hate her. A lot. 

American In Paris Is quickly gaining on Waasmula for the hate her list. Between the two of them, I am learning to appreciate broccoli and spinach more. 
Pass this race. Hate them. I will watch and enjoy. Not bet.

 

Play Against:

 None.


 Race 9

Bets

None
 

 Play Against:

If you can pick a winner from these, you are a better man than me. Or just lucky. I will just say two things on Joseph Gerard. A qualifier is not a race and you can do and use a lot of things you can't in a real race, with the judges and security around. Secondly, P Mac knows this horse and has driven him when he was good Joseph Gerard. If I thought he would be for sure a short price tonight, I'd book him. But, he could easily pop just this one time at fairly high odds, and that is not a risk I would take now. At post time, I would look elsewhere if he were to take big action. Post parade is again key with these, as with my earlier comment.

 Race 10

Bets

Windsong Glamourous  $10 to win

Windsong Glamourous, my win longshot play of the night, is as good as she can be right now. Cochrane knows how to get them ready and keep them good. The post is favorable, and she only needs to be in contention on the far turn to have a very good shot at decent odds. Hopefully Phil brings his A game on this one. 

I don't like any of the other logical ones at the price they come with tonight, so I will list the ones I think are value play against types there.

 Play Against:

 
Nat A Virgin she is one I have never liked, and others love her enough to keep betting her as chalk and making excuses for her when she loses. That likely continues tonight. I feel she is vastly overrated, as is her trainer.

D Gs Pesquero. She would blitz this bunch if she had held the form she had a few weeks ago. She simply hasn't. She has been raced hard for a long time now and that is showing in her performance. She will be sent down the pike tonight at short odds, and I think she gets picked up, maybe even for the entire ticket, but certainly for the win photo.
 
Greystone Ladylike, much like the one above, was really good two months ago, but is another who tails off bad and loses a lot on the way down the ladder. Her form and freshness are in serious doubt. 

Jabas Luck raced well last Sunday, but she is in way deeper with this bunch. She has not proven she can go with the best of these, whichever happen to show up tonight. Not for the win. Yet. 

Miss Coco Luck is another who has tailed off sharply the last 3 weeks, after tripping out and scoring at big odds. I wouldn't book her big price tonight, but she is a no play at this point. Perhaps a rest and then a drop back down will help her in the fall. She seems in a bit of trouble when the miles go south of 1:52.


 Race 11

Bets

None

Not a stellar bunch, to say the least. Who beats the chalk in here? I don't know. Somebody. That is the angle. Play the late pick 4, and leave the chalk off or play her very short. Any one of Gracies Parade, Bet On Hill and a host of others are capable off the right trip and a career night for them. It happens. All the time.


  Play Against:

 
Lovely Erin gets hammered tonight on the better post, good form, Adams gas angle. I will take that 3-5 action. She has issues. Maybe she overcomes them again, maybe she doesn't. Its a solid risk/reward play.

 Race 12

Bets

War Filly  $6 to win

War Filly I am on the fence on her and the shorter price that comes tonight. Her last was good. Very good. She isn't very sound, but she is iron tough. Aptly named. She is likely just enough value that I will take my shot with her. Looking for about 5-2 or higher.

 

 Play Against:

  If my choice fails, it could be any of them and the price will be huge. I wont tempt that fate. I win or lose with my choice in this one.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 21, 2015

Overall Bets: $
 Best Win Bet: $10 win on Unique Baran in the 7th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win on Ms Sangria in the 10th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Unique Baran in the 7th
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Tailwind Hanover in the 10th
Best exactor bet: None
Longshot exactor bet:  None
Best Exotic Bet: : None
Worst Bet: Unabating to win. $10

 Race 1

Bets

Thoughtful Leader  $6 to win

 THOUGHTFUL LEADER Was floating out last time to work his way to the top when the one in front of him looked like a runner. Mario had to take hold at that point and that was all that this green, but talented colt needed to lose his way and take himself out of it. He was well regarded however and the word in the paddock is that he is going to be very good. I give him the green colt pass in that one and will play him on top with the likely better price now that the smart money burned a hole in their pockets last time. His back half the previous start suggests he can probably trot in 57 or better, and that would likely handle this bunch. 

 

ETERNAL QUEST shows back up as a 3yo after showing some promise at 2. He trotted a strong and fast qualifier and that lands him in the ML 2nd favorite slot. He is likely to be the post time favorite. He also went very soft fractions and only had to sprint home. That only means we don't know what he is like when he doesn't get to do that type of thing. He is in the mix, but a short price would be too short for me. Milner is a good trainer, so, he should be ready to go.  Fillion has sat behind him every time he has appeared on the track. That is a plus. He knows him. That counts for something behind the gate and when he drives him in the race. 

Play Against:

 
TSWALU while talented, is now 0 for 13 and has found a variety of ways to get beat. Bad traffic, too late, out trotted down the lane by a better one. Excuses are for losers, and so are short prices on trotters who know how to lose. Another short price is likely tonight, and that leads me to go against him, not with him. One of these days he is going to win this class. That day could be Labor Day. He does have excellent final quarter speed for this class, and that is a plus. But, based on the trips he gets, he appear to only have that if he isn't working for it early, and the driver keeps him in for a reason. Don't be fooled by the way he finishes when he doesn't pull out and go after the leaders earlier.
 
ARIELLA I never underestimate Zeron, as he is a master horseman. But, I suspect this young filly is being educated so she can be whatever she can be when the stakes season starts. She could be the type that can go 56 or 57 right now, but based on the qualifier, she likely isn't going to be allowed to do that tonight, even if you presume she can at this point..which is somewhat of a leap of faith anyway. I will be watching. I want to see what this one brings to the table. Donato's are erratic and also very fast and talented. Her mother was a good one. She likely is also and Zeron is going to take care of that to make sure he gets the most out of her. That isn't winning a maiden right out of the box.

 Race2

Bets

Cottonwood Creek  $6 to win
Machmeter $2 to win


 COTTONWOOD CREEK based on her qualifier, and her breeding,she looks like the one to me in this contest. I suspect others will think likewise and she gets significant tote money at post time. I wouldn't want to take less than 8-5 on a first time starter like this, but she is likely the picture taker here. If she starts as poorly as she did again she could be subject to traffic and flow problems. First time starters don't always know how to overcome adversity like that. Careful taking the short price here. 

  MACHMETER has shown flashes at times, and like most Keyes horses, will likely just pop into gear at some point. I wouldn't toss her tonight in this soft bunch, but post 9 is a problem. Bit player but she could step up any night now. Tonight? Maybe. I'd use her in the double if you are playing that. Her racelines, overall time and back halves are in line with this bunch. She is a decent price option if you hate the chalks. I hate all but one of them. 

Play Against:

 PUT YOUR BAD ON I was not impressed with this filly at all last year. Hudon kept her buried and even when she did shake loose, she didn't go forward like you would expect. I suspect he knows she isn't much and he is trying to get as much as he an out of her. The positive post position improvement over her first two this season brings the shorter price. I don't think it changes her racing chances. Unless I see otherwise from her. She is 9 starts a maiden, and I could see that growing to 20 if she isn't moved to a B track where she doesn't have to finish well to win.


 NORTHERN BEAUTY I am always suspicious of any horse that ships in from Northfield, Balmoral, Maywood or Scioto. Any of the midwest tracks where the fields aren't deep, the tracks are lightning fast and the speed is cheap. You see very soft halves and then one horse who can just pace around horses who can't go entire miles when the money is on the line. That changes when you arrive on a circuit like this. Until proven otherwise. We have seen numerous times this week how those horses have blown up trying to keep up. 


ABBIJADE HANOVER looks like the type that might burn chalk money for a while, showing fast miles and closing from out of it. The hope is she will progress, but these types sometimes don't. It takes a while to figure that out. Potential is great, but at some point you have to step up and actualize that. So far in her career, from the tote board home, she just doesn't do enough. Her breeding suggests to me she wont, and she might break her maiden at some point at this track, but is more suited to a B track like Georgian. Blais simply isn't as good with young pacers as he is with trotters and many just don't get it done and get shipped or sold. I can't bet her on this circuit with all those factors going against her.

 Race 3

Bets

Halo Effect $4 to win
Gronk $4 to win

 HALO EFFECT could be anything, and you can't ignore a first time starter that trots a last quarter in 27 flat. I'd rate her on top based on the odds I might get and a crafty horseman like Zeron holding the lines. The rail concerns me for reasons I have mentioned before with very green trotters. Top call, but suspect and risky, obviously.

 GRONK is the wildcard in this bunch. He appears ready to go right away, and he faced far tougher than any of these have seen so far last year, where he was okay with them when behaved. Jody knows him and is likely to send him right out for the lead. He seems logical enough here. 

SETANTA looks logical enough from the 5 hole. He has put 2 good starts together, closing fast in  in the last, with solid last quarters in both. He is obviously being prepped for the Sire Stakes, and it is yet to be determined at which level he fits. Tonight, he shows up in a maiden again, but there are others who also have the type of ability and potential he shows. He is in the mix. I'd want odds. Condren is a plus with this type, for sure. He does need to start better to be more win worthy.

 BOLI is remembered last year for being as fast as he is erratic, like most very young trotters. He shows back up tonight as a colt who has now been taught to sit back and rate and use his speed in a more tactical way. It does concern me that J Mac is driving him for the first time. He might be tricky and I wouldn't touch him at short odds for that reason.

 ASPEN CALIFORNIA spent the winter in Florida learning to be a race horse. There were significant growing pains for sure. The qualifier was fantastic, but one qualifier does not a race horse make. She does have a speed pedigree and should be one to watch. For tonight, others have more experience and appear a tad more reliable. Just a tad though.

 Race  4

Bets

None.

 Play Against:

CORSICA HALL shows up after a long winter layoff and a month since his qualifier. I can't like him tonight under those circumstances, and will play against his likely relative short price.


RUSTYS OVERLOAD showed flashes of the ability he displayed in his last qualifier last year, but he also showed a very wonky gait and bits of lameness at times which compromised his chances. Until I see otherwise, I play against the likely short price he brings tonight from that fast line.


 DEETZY is your typical Jeremes Jet on this circuit. He follows along fast enough and looks good doing it, but he doesn't win when he has to come out and work for it. His record suggests that he will continue that pattern tonight. These aren't altogether soft.


BIG MAGICK has progressively gotten worse, both soundness and overall finish determination. He is hard to like unless he shows he is going in the right direction. Currently, he appears to be going the other way.

 Race 5

Bets

Ok Heavenly $4 to win
 
OK HEAVENLY is one you could take a shot at with here. She is from a dam who has produced several good ones and she looks as good at any of these. I'd play her if she brought 6-1 or higher.

A FELLAS SECRET  has some ability, but her soundness and the resulting breaking problem holds her back. She is one to consider if she can keep it together.

Play Against: 


 RIDE AWAY SHARK has not impressed me because she tackled tough fillies in the Princess, where she was wildly outclassed. Back here, she is sucker money if she draws a short price here. She has not shown me she is any better than the top 4 or 5 here.

EVAS GIRL Moves from Core to McNair for new owners. 10 hole is tough, but she matches up well with this pretty soft bunch. I can't play what I expect is a very short price from out there, so I will just play against the ones who look like sucker money. 

 Race 6

Bets

Lost In Panslation $4 to win
Proceed to Party $2 to win

 LOST IN PANSLATION this is just the kind of field this horse beats. He certainly can make front and be in position to outfinish a very suspect bunch. Top call, but beware of anything less than 5-2 on him. He knows how to lose.

 PROCEED TO PARTY  goes first start for Lou Eft, who has luck turning these non performing Midwest rats into bearcats for a few weeks on this circuit. I'd certainly use this guy on that angle. Hard to tell if he will be that type, or just a horrific rat whose next stop is Flamboro or Hanover. He is worth one chance tonight at a big price. 

Play Against: 

 I would play against most of the rest, specifically Click Boom, P L Gyro, Bad Outlaw and Greystone Moe, who all have significant issues that make them suspect most nights.

 Race 7

Bets

Unique Baran $10 to win


Unique Baran goes 2nd start off the claim for Stewart, who turned him last fall as well and did very well with him. Trevor knows him, and likely sends him down the pike. He was 2nd best to a bearcat in his last that nobody was touching that night. Top call. 

Don't like any of the others in here.

Play Against: 

Adversary Seelster is fire saled by Moreau tonight, and he simply has not worn well after going after some tough customers last summer. Play against him and the short price.

Loves A Challenge has a history of having trouble on this circuit. Off that Sarnia mile, and Fellows as trainer, I will play against the shorter price he might bring tonight.

Vital Sign. 10 hole. Pass.

 Race  8

Bets

Imminent Respone $8 to win
Tymal Colusses $6 to win

 Imminent Response took action last time and looked okay enough. CC returns to steer him, and I will play him time at the price. He is certainly beatable. He avoids Hava Kadabra this time, and many of these are not appealing at all.

Tymal Collusus raced great last time, only picked off by one he meets again in here. The better post this time means he doesn't have to work for it as hard. I say he lasts, and its between him and my top choice.

 Play Against: 

Unabating came off the shelf at the bargain basement price. He got it done, but he looked awful. I will play against him tonight. He would have to be a lot sounder to get it done this time.

 Race  9

Bets

None. 

P L Idaho just didn't have it last time, bearing in a bit too much and now comes back adding lasix. He is a huge monster who has many gears when right. I will go back to him tonight. Another short price is coming. I'd want 4-5 this time, and I don't think I will get it, so I will pass the race.

Rather Swell ended up first up last time, and that was no good for him. Maybe he can get a better trip this time and luck into a win. I'd play him at a price. I'd want 6-1 minimum to take a shot. The top choice is a bearcat, but he is suspect. We saw that last time. It was awful weather when this guy raced, and I can give him a pass for spitting it out down the lane off that trip under those conditions. He has a shot. Minor shot.

Mr Carrots is the type that could be great tonight, or not show up. Your call. I will avoid him tonight as he is likely a shorter priced 2nd choice to my top call.

 Race  10

Bets

Miss Sangria $6 to win
Tailwind Hanover $4 to win

I will go back to Miss Sangria one more time. She is what she is. Most of these aren't much better. At least she can leave and follow. One of these times she will fall into a pocket trip in back of a leader who gives it up. That could be Tailwind Hanover tonight.

Tailwind Hanover has issues, for sure. Running in bad is one of those. But, she also has some talent, and this is a pretty soft bunch. After burning chalk money 3 times in a row, the faithful ditch her tonight, and I jump on board for the price and the shot. She is one of many who could be dangerous because most of these aren't that dangerous to begin with. 

DancingatNight raced okay enough last time, and finished fast to only get beat 2. She is in the mix, like many in here. I wouldn't play her, I wouldn't book her either.

Play Against: 

Got Some Spark has sucker money written all over her at the short price she brings tonight. But, it is only her 2nd lifetime start, and many of these don't know how to deal with racing hard week in, week out at this stage. She could go out and blow these away. At short odds tonight, I will play against that chance.

Franney Love Dat changes barns again. I suspect the owner thinks more of this filly than the trainers do and he is searching for power that isn't there. Play against for me. She is a 16 time maiden now. There are enough okay ones in here to make that 17.

 Race  11

Bets

none.

I could see Rothblissberger on the drop, but I could also see many others coming up, or blowing up. I will just pass this bunch. It was tough enough to get through the first 10. This one was just too tough to bother with. 

-------------------

Additional notes.

Race 1

BALLYKEEL BOMBER Tried WEG once, but was quickly shuffled off to Flamboro to boss those types around. It took two to get that done, and now he comes back with Per still at the lines. He was foolishly tried in his one start at 2 in the Gold and that was a disaster. I would argue that he might be better off staying at Flamboro for now and continuing to learn to trot over those ovals, as he is likely heading for a season of Grassroots tries at the B's. I think as the ML fave, although he isn't likely to be the post time fave, with all things considered he is a poor bet tonight. I will keep tabs on him and look to play him when a real driver gets handed the lines.

 MS KRISTINS BABY trotted a back half in 57, both splits quick, and draws inside this time after a month between starts. The rail seems like death to a green trotter at WEG, so I wont play her tonight but will watch to see if she is legit with hopefully a closer up start. I wouldn't be shocked if she got it done tonight, but my gut tells me to wait for another day. She is on the radar. Shakes is very good with young trotters and she definitely has a speed pedigree. I wouldn't be surprised if she is taking down Grassroots wins this summer. 

TURN A BUCK raced at Flamboro last time with Ballykeel Bomber and didn't get near him, a similar result to all the rest of the lines on the page for him. Hard to like this one and Holland has a history of tossing them out there until they come around. Tonight, I just can't see it. This is an education race at best for this one. At some point, this one might show some talent and form and be a good fall or winter horse when the experience he gains meets the weak fields he might need to be competitive.

 
ARIELLA I never underestimate Zeron, as he is a master horseman. But, I suspect this young filly is being educated so she can be whatever she can be when the stakes season starts. She could be the type that can go 56 or 57 right now, but based on the qualifier, she likely isn't going to be allowed to do that tonight, even if you presume she can at this point..which is somewhat of a leap of faith anyway. I will be watching. I want to see what this one brings to the table. Donato's are erratic and also very fast and talented. Her mother was a good one. She likely is also and Zeron is going to take care of that to make sure he gets the most out of her. That isn't winning a maiden right out of the box.




WARRAWEE QUATRE Was a total flop in 3 starts at two and comes to the big track to start out this year. That is a curious thing, and that makes me suspicious. I will watch him tonight to see if he is the type who doesn't have enough overall speed for the big track, but has issues with getting around a B track like Hanover, which is likely where he ends up for Fritz. There might be value in beating him there. Tonight, he is a non factor for the ticket. 


 I FEEL GOOD shows nothing to this point to suggest she is even competitive with the also rans in this field. Pass.
 AUILA post 10 with a horse who was fifth of 5 at Sarnia with Green driving. Total pass for me.

Race 2

CASIMIR NANOOK is a 4yo maiden by a sire who sends out less than intelligent foals, but who do show speed. Her trainer has always been very low percentage, and she is 10 starts a maiden also has never made the ticket. These seem beyond her reach, and her fast last quarter last time does nothing for me unless she can show she can do something like that after she works for it earlier. Pass. 

 I C YOUR SHADOW has obvious issues and can't be played on this circuit unless they are sorted out. I see no evidence of that so far. Pass. 

 IMACUTIEPATOOTIE seems like one who could be dangerous in a field like this. She hangs around mid pack most times, and since many of these don't look that dangerous, the likely faves are young and vulnerable, if she were to trip out and find a seem, she could score at big odds. I wouldn't toss her and the price will likely be right. Contender. 

WINDSUN LISA beat some very soft maidens at London, but even though the weather has warmed up, she has not gone forward speed wise. Not sure why she is attempting this track at this point. No shot.

Race 3

(3) FORT YORK has been allowed to start slowly and simply out trot poor maidens at Flamboro. That wont cut it here. I have to see what he can do when he has to go faster and work for it. I will watch for tonight, but the time overall isn't an issue. The style he won with is.



(6) AUNT LOTTIE looks to have a future but she currently doesn't finish well enough to go with all of these. Pass tonight, but Larry Walker must always be respected with any trotter.

(8) WARKEN ON AIR is coming along as a late starting 4yo homebred. I will look for more improvement tonight, but this spot appears way too tough for him to get his picture taken. 

(9) MONSIEUR HALL is impossible to like based on his manners issue and overall lack of speed relative to most of these. Post 9 insures a likely 99-1 or higher price. I still wouldn't go near him.

(10) NOBLE LEGEND is likely out for just a test drive trip tonight, as he was sent back to dummy school with new pants to steady him. Watching for later. Not playing tonight.


Race 4

(6) THINK AGAIN is an ugly gaited rat like many of his siblings, and at this point, he is better off at Kawartha, where he is no cinch there either.


(9) TWIN B COMMANDER has the pedigree to go with these if he is healthy and fit. That is questionable. He is a month between racetrack miles, and at best he looks to follow tonight and show us what he can do. I will be watching. Not betting.


(10) SURF REPORT 10 hole for a non performing 14 time maiden who looks way outclassed here. Pass.


Race 5

2 STONEBRIDGE QUEST qualified okay enough, but I suspect a short price here and I wouldn't take it. McCabe's horses have a pattern of not coming off the shelf ready to go. I will watch her tonight.

(3) JACLYN HANOVER tripped out and outstaggered a very soft bunch at Flamboro last time. Not gonna work with these.
































 

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 18, 2015

Overall Bets: $
 Best Win Bet: $10 win on Southwind Indy in the 9th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win on Lets Wait And See in the 2nd
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Charmed Life in the 3rd
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Lets Wait And See in the 2nd
Best exactor bet: Race 2  $4 ,  1-3 with 1-2-3-5 $24
Longshot exactor bet:  None
Best Exotic Bet: : None
Worst Bet: Split The House to win. $10
Most likely high superfecta payout: Race 5

 Race 1

Bets

Renegade Magic $6 to win
Buzz $4 to win
Innkeeper  $2 to win



Renegade Magic- Looks ready to go right out of the box. Saftic drives a lot of horses for Dunstan, and his charge looks good in here too, but he elected for this one instead. Saftic hasn't exactly been loaded with power lately, so any chance he can get to latch on to a stakes type colt, he is making that choice. She didn't need to start up close to go 58 in her qualifier, which would certainly take this bunch, and with her apparent last quarter speed, she appears to only need a clean trip to circle. All of this assumes good behavior of a green filly. The price is likely worth the risk of that here.

Buzz-I was tempted to use him in the top spot. Stakes caliber colt with the potent combo of Fillion and Blais. But the 9 hole is not easy, and Blais has a habit of having them ready but not racing them that hard first start off the shelf. So, I will slot him in the 2nd position and go with a bigger priced option on top.

Innkeeper- Qualified faster than my top choice with Saftic, but he went to him instead. If that one blows up, as young green colts are prone to do, this one wouldn't shock me. P Mac is very good with green trotters. Never forget that. It looks like this one has got his act together from his very juvenile behavior at 2. We shall see if race conditions will prove that out. Qualifiers aren't real races. 

 
Play Against:  OnTheroad de vie
Its a tough bunch to sort overall as it is. But, something with talent in this bunch is going to show up tonight. This one is the type that gets beat every week and this week looks no different. At 0 for 14 and 30k already in earnings, he looks like the type who might grind out 40k this year being in the mix and winning the odd one at the B's in the grassroots program. Tonight, he meets several who are likely destined for better. One of them will be in front of him at the wire. 


Race 2

Bets

Lets Wait And See  $6 to win

Lets Wait And See- Left very poorly from post 9 last time, but closed up monster ground and got as close as he could. From a better starting spot, and with two likely contenders inside him who I think can't or wont attempt to outleave him but will likely backstretch move to take the lead, he could get the right kind of trip to win this. The price will be right. I will take my shot with him. It should be noted he had 1 month between starts due to sickness and last time showed he was fit and healthy. If he can add a second or a bit more here, he is certainly righ there. Top call.

Sportskeeper-Has very little reason to be raced all out to win this one, which he certainly can if he falls into it. But, I don't see him being raced all out and likely shows up 2nd or 3rd. I wouldn't leave him off any exotic, for the win or any other position, but not my top call at the very probable short price he comes with tonight.

Aramblin Hanover- Is always around, and these types win one eventually. There just seem to be too many good ones in here to think he can take them all down. I wouldn't be shocked if he did though. Every dog has his day. I wont use him, but I wont play against him either. He is probably in the 8-1 range, and that is dangerous enough to not mess with him. He does have good overall and gate speed. That has to be respected.  
Play Against:  
Windsong Leo
There is nothing much not to like about this guy, but they all go down at some point, and the talent pool is getting deeper, fresher and classier now that the weather is warmer and he is out of the lower ranks. His swoop em style wont carry as much punch now. Does he have another weapon to fork over? Maybe. But tonight, I say he races great, but gets beat. 

Sportskeeper
As mentioned above, he is talented and the connections are solid. But, the price will be short and the motivation might not be too high. I will play against that short price for value. He could beat me. I admit that.


Race 3

Bets

Charmed Life  $10 to win



Charmed Life- She is much the best of this bunch. As long as she shows up, doesn't get held up or raced in a manner that precludes her win chances, she should just blow by these at the tote board or earlier. Top call and most likely winner on the card.
 
Play Against:  
All the rest
While there are some pretty talented fillies in this race, which certainly include Rockin With Dewey and Riveting Rose..and others, I can't see any of them taking down the sharp and hopefully motivated Charmed Life. I will play against them all.



Race 4

Bets

Rollwiththepunches  $6 to win


Jeb  $4 to win


Rollwiththepunches- Post 10 is always tough and even though Coleman is great with horses off long layoffs, it wont be easy to go all the way around the entire field. But, this horse paced a back half in 54 to show he is ready to do that, and his class from last year far exceeds this field. I will play him on top, and hope there is enough value attached to accept the risks that come with the factors I have mentioned which could foil him.



Jeb- Showed flashes of ability at times last year and these aren't terribly tough once you get past my top choice. He could get on the engine and wire this bunch under the right circumstances. The track was deep and the weather miserable last week for his first start back off the layoff,  and he was mired in the middle of the pack dealing with it. I give him a pass for those reasons and expect a price that makes him playable here. He has a shot.
 
Play Against:  
Windsong Lightning
Goes Gangell to Menary on the suspension. The change and to the combo of Jody and Menary is likely to shorten the price, and I don't see him as that much better or even as good as other in here. I will play against that angle and the low odds that come with it.

Lancaster Park
This was a colt I liked a lot last year and played heavily a few times, and he came through when the circumstances were right. I think he needs at least one start out of the box. He does have one crazy wicked brush, but he likely needs some conditioning to carry that more than he usually does. He is on my radar but tonight I'd take on his action.
The Shadow Knows
They don't come much unsounder than him,and while he does have some talent and grit, the competition continues to get stiffer and wear him down as he tries in vain to keep up. I think he is maxed out on this circuit and will do okay in the summer in the Grassroots in places like Kawartha,  Rideau and Georgian, where the 5/8ths is his best fit..if he lasts that long soundness wise.



Race 5

Bets

Adore Him  $6 to win


Windsun Stetson  $6 to win


Adore Him- Got parked the mile last time from the outside and packed it in down the lane. His second bad post in a row. You don't see Condren send a colt at 40-1 out like that unless he thought it was going to get there. So, there must have been a problem. Robinson is very good at turning around horses in a week. We saw that with Nickle Bag when he looked bad and turned right back around and passed them all in the Preferred.
The track and conditions were awful last time. That gives him the one pass and get out of jail free card for me tonight. If he does that again, he is personna non grata for me.  Better post this time, and it isn't as deep a bunch as you sometimes see with maidens. My first choice in this race and hoping for decent odds.


Windsun Stetson- Seems capable enough and is heading in the right direction. He was Phil's choice over the 10,  which isn't a tough call all things considered. He is in the mix and certainly can take down my top choice, or others if he bombs out like last time. 3rd start off the shelf and I expect he is closer to the pace and moving early this time. 

 Fashion Maven- Certainly has the breeding and fits with these. I don't like him enough to play him, but I think he has a minor enough shot not to play against him. Have to see what he's got. I am generally not thrilled with any Vernon shipper onto this circuit until they show me they can hack more talented and deeper fields than you will face there.
 
Play Against:  
Tee Roy
Another Balmoral shipper for MacIntosh, the second from the same connections. The first one got it done, but looked about as bad as you can doing it. I think the luck runs out this time. Randy took the one last week, he passed on this one.

Mach The Casbah
First time Moreau from Rideau is a very good angle, but they don't all win and this one has competition and likely a short enough price because that angle will be played, in spite of the horse not showing that he would justify those odds. If he had drawn inside, that might be a different story. He didn't.


Race 6

Bets


Good Friday Three- There is no way a horse like this should lose this race. But they do all the time. I can't play against him, because I really like the horse, but I won't take 2-5 or less on him, so I have to pass the race entirely. If I was to play a pick 4, I'd use him and find two others that are likely to be there if he isn't. I will give you the two I think are those horses in this race.

Official Prince- Shows up tonight with a month between starts, and a trainer change from a guy I've never heard of to another guy I've never heard of. His last was pretty good, but not spectacular for Pompano. However, horses like this seem to pop up and just beat you from time to time, and you note the reasons why after the race. If you are shopping for a giant killer here, this would be the one for me. 

 The Spy- Is still NAC eligible, and that means enough to take him seriously. He left hard and got parked from the 10 hole last time in his first start of the year and held 2nd against another one who looks like a bearcat, relative to these.

 Race 7

Bets

Crafty Master  $4 to win

Cheyenne Reider  $4 to win



Crafty Master- Is obviously a not very sound horse with a lot of talent who didn't fullfil his potential and will bounce around these types of claiming classes, winning when the trip and his soundness allow him to do so. His trainer resembles this horses name, and as such, he is an okay play at this class level for the price you can have tonight. Minor play for me.

Cheyenne Reider- He is crazy fast, and when things work out, he can just outspeed them. That has worked from time to time. You would have to put him in the mix. Another minor play in a bunch where week to week, it could be one of many.



 Play Against: 

 F Twenty Two
Dips even deeper into the pool because his owner trainer doesn't want to lose him for 12k, which he surely would if he jammed him back in there. In the game he plays, a horse like this is hard to come by and sometimes you move up, race for a cheque and wait for the chance to find another spot to win and hold on to the horse. In any event, not winning this race tonight. These are far tougher than he has faced and beaten in recent times. Can't see him being more than a bit player here at the wire. 

Amble Over Hanover

Is a very form driven and trip dependent horse who appears on the down side of that form now and to have used up his good trips card. I liked him a month ago, and think he would be better off in at least one class lower now.


Real Rocker

Won at the bottom off a perfect trip, which he needs. These are way tougher than anything he has handled and I don't see him even making the ticket, let alone winning.


Race 8

Bets

Daylon Magician  $6 to win



Daylon Magician- I generally avoid this horse and the short odds he brings. I think the layoff and the post might give me the type of odds I would hope makes him viable. I am looking for at least 8-5, and I think that will be there. The other thing I like is the setup of the race. If he leaves hard he can get a 2 hole trip behind the Gasman and this horse has shown before he is better following in the middle stages and comes home better when he does. Top call on him, but I am not 100% sold everything will go his way. Hard to like any of the others enough to play them or book them, so I will not.
Race 9

Bets

Southwind Indy  $10 to win



Southwind Indy- This one has always impressed me most of the group Casie carried over to 3. I think he is ready to pop right out of the box, and with the 3 horse the likely chalk,  the price will be right. 

Velocity Headlight - He appears to be very sharp, the post is right and the price will be very good. Des knows how to tune them up when they need a bit of tuning. I think he is the one if my top choice craps out like two of his stablemates did Saturday nights.

Physicallyinclined - Cant be faulted for his last race and he is still on the big payday hunt. So, I suspect they want to see what he is made of tonight, against much better than he beat last time. I think he comes up short,  but I would not play against him.


 Play Against: 

  All the rest

I am very certain one of my top 3 gets it done, so I will book anything that is left over.


Race 10

Bets


 Play Against:

Etruscan Hanover- He is much improved, but he is not bulletproof. I can see another short price on him coming and I am not willing to go anywhere near that, or play any of these against him. However, I do think there is at least one in here to take him down,  so I will play against him. If I play the last pick 4,  I would probably take 6 or 7 others and leave him off. Tarot,  Bags For All and Kate Smith being the ones I would feel safe leaving off that ticket.



Race 11

Bets



Speed Racer-I will play the first time Cirasoula angle here. Others certainly look miles better than him, but they all have reasons to go against them, which I will detail below. I like that Massey is aboard here. If there is intent, there will be no games or holes given. If he is a big go, he goes and you live with whether or not he is good enough. I will bet my money to find that out. 

  Play Against:
 Mikes Powerhouse
I've never been a big fan of this horse,  and I feel confident he isn't beating me tonight at a pretty short price. He is very well bred and connected, but he has not even close to lived up to that hype yet. I have to see him,  but tonight doesn't seem like the night. 

 Twin B TK 
Won his last, but didn't look good doing it. He jumps from straight maidens into a NW2 with a bunch of highly regarded stakes colts. I doubt even his best would beat all of these. He is more likely to make 3rd or 4th if he is okay after all,  which I am suspicious of to begin with.

 Librado Hanover 

Won his maiden okay but gave it up last time and these are far tougher than that bunch. I think he is going to live in this class for quite a while yet. No diploma for him tonight.  

  Split The House
Was a well meant, well bred and well regarded winner in his maiden debut. Even the best of maidens have a tough time stepping up to NW2, and since he was also very green in his debut, some of these are likely beyond his reach tonight. He is possible, but the short price tells me to play elsewhere, as I have with my top choice, who likely wont get near this colt in the fall, but might be ahead of him enough at this stage.