WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 16, 2015

Overall Bets: $
 Best Win Bet: $10 win on Bob Ben and John in the 6th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win on Adversity in the 1st
Best Place Bet: $8 place on Piston Broke in the 7th
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Captive Audience  in the 3rd
Best exactor bet: Race 6  $4 ,  2-5
Longshot exactor bet:  None
Best Exotic Bet: : Race 4 Exotics: Pick 4 $1....3, with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8 with 2 with 2,4,5
Worst Bet: Pierce Hanover to win. $10
Most likely high superfecta payout: Race 5



Race 1

Bets

 Adversity $10 to win


exotics $2 ,  DD 1 with 1,4,5,7,8,9

Adversity--I will go with him as my top choice. Fillion is really in the zone lately, and Moreau is Moreau. This horse has always had a lot of talent, and the switch from Per has really done the trick, as it often does. Other than a brain cramp trip to Flamboro, this horse has been solid and might have a future on this circuit at the higher end. Top call from the rail tonight, even though I realize I might be looking at 8-5. A duplicate of his last beats this bunch. Why not? He seems to be still peaking and he probably hasn't been tested to his full ability yet.

Whiskey Tax-Obviously the class is there, but he usually comes out of the box slow off a long layoff. Durand will put Randy or Jackie Mo on him when he is ready to score. Unless there is a driver change tonight, I will pass on him for the top spot. Always dangerous enough though at this level.

Mms Lucky Boy- Is so trip dependant at any level, that he is hard to play unless you get big odds, which you wont tonight. I have to slot him 3rd as the top 2 just look better than him. He is capable enough if they both blow up for some reason.

Play Against:  All the rest and Whiskey Tax
Don't like any of the rest, so I will book them all. One of my top 3 is the winner, most likely my top choice. Whiskey Tax has a shot, but the short price makes him a good play against.


Race 2

Bets

Youre Majestic $10 to win


exotics:none

Youre Majestic-- is about as erratic as they come. But,  when she behaves, she has more talent than this entire field put together. Fillion sticks with her which is a very good sign. As mentioned in Race 1, he is in the zone lately.
She was keeping a lot better company than these last year and was just about as good as them then. If she is right, she is the one tonight.Top call. Risky call. But top call.

xxxx- I will use a host of others in the double that all could do it under the right circumstances, but all have huge holes. Those include Alacrity (driver), A Little More Love ( layoff), Totally Ripped (manners), R ChooChoo Charlie (manners and post), Utopia (manners, gait, soundness, post, stale date).


Play Against:  I am Special and Magic Madness



Race 3

Bets

Captive Audience $10 to win


exotics:none

Captive Audience has drawn poorly twice with some tough customers who got way ahead of him. However, his back halves were huge both times. Tonight, he gets away closer, has speed to chase again and Randy knows how to win these types of races. Top call at probably an okay price.

xxxxA lot of horses will contend here, many with styles that go against each other. Musselsfrombrussels likes to wing it, but gets leg weary and drifts out if he goes too much. Camaes Fellow likes the front, and many nights insists on it, which Drury is happy to oblige him with. Those two will only hurt each other here. Three of Clubs and Luckbewithyou were both hard used early and spent late in the CC Cup. They might take a while to learn how to deal with aged horses who can take their best and spit them back out. Thunder Steeler drops, is sharp enough, but draws the 7 hole outside strong leaders and he wont get the front, or gets hung the mile trying, and he is rarely the type that likes to rough it. The rest seem a bit overmatched tonight.

Race 4

Bets
Nat A Virgin $4 to win 

I Got To Boogie $4 to win

Exotics: Pick 4 $1....3, with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8 with 2 with 2,4,5

Nat A Virgin, not always the most reliable mare, but speedy and a proven stakes winner, gets CC in the bike tonight over Jones, and is one more race fit. Hopefully, she is rated a bit better and doesn't have to go suicide fractions like last time. Top call, but suspect on her.

I Got To Boogie has improved greatly as of late, as has Mario and all of Ben B's. She almost pulled it off in this class last time, and I'd have to use her again considering all those angles. Maybe she gets to the 2 hole and rides the top choices back. That makes her dangerous. She showed a first quarter in 26.3 two back, and she wired them that night, so, she is capable of firing that early bullet and lasting if saved a bit in the middle stages. I certainly include her in any exotic I might play.

Wildcat Beauty had her shot last time and couldn't quite get there. I'd have to use her again tonight in the exotics, but last time was her best chance to upset. Minor chance to me tonight. A Mac just can't seem to win a race. He is ofer for the meet and we are 6 weeks in.

Race 5

Justasmalltowngirl is capable enough in a field with many who either show up and wow you, or don't show up and you curse them. For the price and the good starting spot, I will take a shot on her. She is iffy, but she has good nights and her gate speed is a plus. Her last was pretty good.

Power Move has upset potential if things go his way. He is a real in and outer. The price is likely big tonight. I'd use him.

Paper Backed Lindy is another who shows you something some nights, and then shows you he has no heart or great the rest of the time. He can be used in this grab bag of hard to like types.

Race 6

Bets

10 win place and show on Bob Ben And John

Bob Ben And John Brings serious value tonight, assuming Pierce Hanover takes heavy money and Closing Credits takes enough also. At 2-1 or higher, this horse is great value, my top call and my best bet of the night. Casie will have him ready and in my view, when right (which he wasn't in the fall) towers over this bunch.
Play Against: 
In view of my top call, I will book the balance. Only Pierce looks dangerous to me, and he will be a short price. The rest don't look like they threaten for the top spot.
Race 7
 Bets
Piston Broke $6 to win 

Nickle Bag $4 to win

Piston Broke has been knocking for weeks. He is bound to go in at some point. The price will be right, and Trevor is a good guy to ride when he gets hot. It wont be easy. Top to bottom, this is a tough bunch.

Nickle Bag is always dangerous with the potent combo of the horse, Jackie Mo and Bill Robinson. He is an opportunist. There might be opportunity here if there is battling again.

State Treasurer has to command respect, with his driver and his past performance. But, like American In Paris, he is becoming a major chalk burner, and I suspect he gets hit again one more time tonight. I wouldn't play against him, but he is getting hard to like. These aren't a soft bunch.
Race 8

Reverend Hanover. Obviously, he looks like a cinch in here. So, not wanting to take the short price he will bring, I will pass on the race and just watch. I do like The Rev, Melmerby Beach and a couple of others if he were to get scratched for some reason. If not, I will watch them and admire him, and keep my eye on him to see what he looks like as he heads towards the big date in a month.
Race 9

Cant say I like anything in here. so, I will play against the most obvious ones for the reasons I give below.

Play Against: 

 Calgary Seelster is logical enough, but has always had a habit of disappointing when you expect him to step up.

Burning Shore has got the bump, and now appears to be sliding back. No excuse last time.
Rock Me Amastreos improved first time Snowden to Auciello with the lasix chaser added. Now, he has to beat real horses. Not as easy as we saw with An Angel Shes Not last night.
Race 10

 Bets
Aslan $10 to win 

Prince Clyde $2 to win

Aslan takes the monster dive, has been racing okay, and gets a much better post. Short price, but hard to go against with this terrible bunch who only seem to beat each other and have a new kid in town who can actually beat better.

Prince Clyde, if the top choice fails, is capable enough and will likely bring a big enough price to play if you want to go another way. I wouldn't avoid him entirely.

Play Against:

the balance. they are chasing minor prizes tonight.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 15, 2015

Overall Bets: $186
 Best Win Bet: $8 win on Meadow Seelster in the 1st
Best Longshot Win Bet: $8 win on Lights Go Out in the 6th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Lights Go Out in the 6th
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Sassafras in the 7th
Best exactor bet: Race 1 $2 ,  box 6,7,9 ($12)
Longshot exactor bet:  Race 12 $2 , wheel  3 with 2,6,8,10 ($8)
Best Exotic Bet: : Race 5 $1 pk 3 (1,4,5,7 with 2,3,7 with 5,6) ($24)
Worst Bet: Macho Mass to win. $10
Most likely high superfecta payout: Race 5








Race 1

Bets
Meadow Seelster $8 to win
One Direction $2 to win

exotics $2 ,  box 6,7,9 ($12)

Meadow Seelster--Went a long way on the lead to a proven stakes horse last time. Fillion sticks with her. He does very well with Bill Budd horses, as evidenced by their very high ROI together. She can outlast this bunch if she isn't pushed too hard to get the lead. The move in from post 8 and 9 to post 6 really helps her cause. There isn't much pure speed in this race to bother her anyway. She won 4 of 12 last year, most if not all of those were on the engine. She was fighting and pulling on Fillion last time and maybe Budd tinkers and tries to make her slightly more rateable. As it was, she trotted home okay and finished well to a filly she can't yet compete with. Top call.

One Direction--Showed incredible flashes of ability last year at times, but was just as inconsistent and erratic. He finally blew up in the Autumn final, and Jones brings him back here off two qualifiers, where it appears he is trying to teach him to be a racehorse. I think that education continues tonight and he is one start at least away from the win photo. If he is ready to go, he could take down my top choice. I will use both in the double, but I prefer my top one better.

Noble Power- has a lot of upside and raced solid to be 2nd best to a likely Gold Stakes horse. No shame in that. He might still be very green though, and others have a big edge on him in that department. I will pass on him, but he is a threat nonetheless.
Play Against: 
Macho Mass
came right out of the box and scored a solid win. But he still has an inferior driver holding the lines tonight, and he beat two who are less than impressive types to this point. Play against him for me. 
Tyrone Zoey 
was very impressive first time out, and looks to have a solid future against medium Sire Stakes types. Not sure she can step up right away against others who are ahead of her on the class and speed scale. The two behind her in her win are not impressive types at all. She was full value for the win, but that value is suspect against many of these. Play against tonight until she shows a bit more.

 Race 2

Bets
 All Chocolate $6 to win


No exotics

All Chocolate--Looks as good as any in here and probably brings a higher price. She has handled these before, and although winless this season, won 7 times last year and was 17 out of 42 in the top 2. She has a nose for the line and if tripped out right, can take this very suspect and hard to like bunch. She might end up first up after a soft half, and that is a concern. Still, top call. I would want 9-2 at least. I think I can get that.

Kikiskissincousin--is obviously dangerous, and even with the likely short price from the rail, which she can use well to be up close or on the engine, you have to use her in the double or pick 3. At least I do. She isn't my preference, as she tends to hang in the lane for various reasons. So do many of these. She has company there. There is no current bearcat in this bunch stealing money like One Last Bono or Roll Tide Roll did in the winter. She is in the mix. McNair is red hot and has done well with her before.

Exhilirated-  is the opposite of my top 2. She probably has more overall talent than them, but has always found it hard to win and needs just about a perfect trip to do that. I remember last summer she got just such a trip and scooted up the plyons when everyone drifted out to score. I can't leave her off either, but for the straight win, she is a bad play.

Larjon Laura-  has not been as good for Perriera as she was for McMaster. But, Jody is good at winning with these types, she gets a much better post to put her up close and she drops a shade. I'd have to use her in the exotics as well. Tough race to pick one. Whoever trips out and feels best on this night should get it done. We never know who that is until they hit the wire.

Play Against: 
None


 Race 3

Bets
 Top Dollar $4 to win
Chiller Ice  $4 to win

No exotics

Top Dollar- is a risky proposition for sure. If right, and good tonight, he has as good a chance as any. J. Mac is the type that wins with these a lot. Since I am suspicious of the 7 horse with her Pompano lines and the month between races, and her capable, but less than tactical driver, I will take a chance on this guy to get his act together and show us what he hinted at when he broke his maiden like they weren't even there.

Chiller Ice-is the other price option I like. Not thrilled that Trevor goes elsewhere, but Saftic is capable enough. He is just the kind of erratic trotter that is learning the game and will graduate to be whatever he is destined to be at some point. Considering this field and his improving overall form, I will play him tonight against this weaker bunch.

Pointe of Inquiry-  as mentioned above. Risky proposition here. I wouldn't play against her directly, but the price is likely to be short enough that I wouldn't put any money on her either. I will exclude her from my picks 3s. She has upside, and could score. I just don't think that happens. 


Play Against: 
BistroBistroTaj

looked okay for a while when scoring against Grassroots fillies last year, but was not wearing well and blew up in the final. She shows back up in the hands of Jones, who has shown a penchant lately for putting horses on the track with issues and not sorting them out first. He did that a bit last year also. Beware. I will play against her and her likely short price tonight, watch and see where she is at. If she was 100% fit, which is likely considering 2 qualifiers, and sound, which is in question, she would probably steamroll this bunch. The trainer change concerns me. Your call.

 Duh Bubbies

certainly has raced well since coming to this circuit. However, his breeding is very suspect to go forward and his form is tailing off slightly as he is asked to go faster. Post 10 really hurts him when there are others in here who can leave enough that he wont get there. I suspect Trevor knows that and wont gun out, which means he has to park. Don't see it. Fillion took Budd's horse from the rail, which makes sense, but her form isn't that great, further cementing my opinion that this guy is a solid play against tonight. 


 Race 4

Bets
 Capelo                 $4 to win
Twin B Wrangler  $2 to win

No exotics

Capelo- is an American Ideal who gets first time lasix after bombing out horribly for Auciello. Where have I seen that movie before? Anyway, if lasix works, he has a shot. If it doesn't, he is way up the track. Worked well for Mr Dennis, and Donau and Curator also came alive for a while under the same circumstances.  Longshot play. He has shown he can sit back and pick up the pieces when he is good. He will have lots of crazy speed to chase in this one. If he is okay. Big if.

Twin B Wrangler- takes a slight drop here, which is needed because he was over his head for 20. He can leave like a bat out of hell and only seems good when he is free wheeling. I wouldn't be surprised to see Trevor attempt to roll him here. The problem with that is Crown Isle will employ the same tactic. And he draws inside this one. If Crown Isle is no good tonight, that totally changes this guys chances. I will use him on the off chance he gets his way.

Intended Style-   is another who likes to wing it. He was able to employ that strategy to a very dominant win last time from the 9 hole. That doesn't always work, week to week, with these types. He steps up a level, and that equalizes things for me in here. I will pass on him, and likely play against him by not using him in the pick 4. Risky, but creates value if I am correct. He stole the second quarter last time, and it is highly unlikely a repeat of that happens here with the type of speed inside him.


Play Against: 
  Crown Isle

I would certainly be willing to give him a pass for last time, considering he had his legs cut out from under him. But McNair has done very well with him  yet ditches him for an outsider like Woggy Rocks from the 9 hole. That screams to me play against and his short price.  Which is what I will do.

Race 5

Bets
 Cal Chips Brother  $8 to winSam Hayes  $6 to win


Exotic: Pick 3 ($1), 1,4,5, 7 with 2,3,7 with 5,6 ($24)





CalChipsBrother-  Obviously, a very risky play. But also a huge price if he can behave and the trip works out. Mayotte pops up every now and then and blows up the tote board. I am gonna take a flyer that this could be the spot. Strictly a price and angle play that the likely top 3 don't get it done, for any number of a varied set of reasons. 

Sam Hayes- much like my top choice, he could pop up, wake up, and blow up the tote board tonight. Or, just blow up. I will take a chance on him too. Since there isn't much confidence to be had in the chalks here, there is reason to at least take the risk on the price side. He has ability, he just doesn't always bring it. It only takes one good night with his kind. 

Lets Leavum-   is always hard to like, in that he brings just short enough a price to hate yourself when playing his sub standard, non trying self. But, he is another who has one good day every so often and catches you by surprise. I will hope for something around 7-1, and that he is the one if the top 2 are no good tonight.


Play Against: 
  Doncango

 Off that qualifier, Mario's relative hot hands and Ben B's very hot barn, I suspect this iffy trotter will get heavy play. He is certainly viable, but also very accident prone. I will play against him and take my chances. 
 Race 6

Bets
 Lights Go Out  $8 to win
Farouche Hanover $6 to win



Lights Go Out-  She is generally one I avoid, because of her racing style, her soundness issues and the trouble she finds in races. However, she has shown a bit of life lately down at this level, and she has burned enough chalk players to possibly bring a reasonable price from a slightly better starting spot. Top call, but just slightly.

Farouche Hanover- gets a better starting post this time for the potent and sometimes profitable combo of Nixon and P Mac. She blasted home last time to not gain much of a share but she has 300k plus of back class to make her viable to try and use with my top choice. Very slight 2nd choice to my top call.

xxxxx-   I don't have a 3rd one here. There are possible ones, but none I would play. I will live or die with my top 2.


Play Against:

  Misstresstothestars
 Has not shown me anything to suggest she can compete at this level, even from the inside. Forget the 10 hole. Jody could have pulled last time, and the one behind him waited and waited to try and fish him out, but Jody never bought. That should tell you what he thinks of this mare. Menary is good. He simply can't do anything with this one. She should find a cheap claimer. And I think she is close to being in that position. 

  Oceanview Bindi

Takes the drop and looks to pop. Of course she is tempting to put up for at least 3rd.  But she comes with a relatively short price tonight, and she looks plenty beatable in this mix. I go the play against route, but know she could turn around and bite me.


 Race 7

Bets
 Sassafras Girl   $10 to win
I Wonder Why    $6 to win








Sassafras Girl-  Gets a much better post tonight, and likely is blasted out for the lead in her 3rd off the shelf. Her racelines aren't bad,  and she did take a Sires Stakes last year at 2 in 1:53 over this track. It's time to produce. I am betting she does that tonight at fairly decent odds.

I Wonder Why- Comes in off the 2 qualifier angle, and certainly she was a class filly last year. The rest probably did her good, and MacIntosh seems to know when enough is enough, and when to fire them back up for the lucrative 3 year old campaign. If my top one doesn't fire , I am betting Condren takes this impressive, but beatable bunch. She is by Ponder, and the majority of those seem to improve greatly from 2 to 3, and nobody knows those better than MacIntosh, who trained him and most of his best ones so far.

Bet On Hill-  Has really come around, slowly and steadily in te last month, after looking horrid at London just before that. I'm not certain she can haul the whole bunch down here, and certainly Trevor stole her last win, but she is in the mix. I wont bet her, but I wouldn't be shocked if she got it done either. I'd use her in the pick 4's if you play that.

Play Against:

Ms Mac N Cheeese
 Strikes me as a filly who was great early, at 2, but might not come back too good at 3. Time will tell. I will play that angle tonight at the likely short odds she will garner. If I'm right, this will likely be the only chance to play against her in that manner before others ditch her for the 3 year olds who are coming on, like my top choice.
A qualifier isn't raced for purse money, so it doesn't mean that much, but not closing much on a Warrawee Qually would be a warning sign to me.


 Race 8

Bets
 Cant Stop   $6 to win





Cant Stop-  Fillion tried to send her down the road last time and it almost worked. But she had to go fast to the half and paid the price at the tote board, being inhaled by two pretty nice prospects. She didn't stop though, and that was her 2nd off the shelf, signalling sharpness. Fillion is back aboard and I suspect he leaves and looks for a helmet this time. She can trip out and turn the tables this time.

Warrawee Qually-  Just doesn't win, as per her sire's norm on this circuit. However, this is such a soft bunch, she could possibly fall into the kind of trip and luck that gets a rat like this up. I'd use her in a very minor way, but not discount her.

Play Against:

None

 Race 9

Bets

None





xxxx-  I cant say I like anything in here enough to fork over win money. So I wont. I have two to play against,  and obviously at least one will lose. I think they both do.  I don't know which of the remaining 8 steps up and beat them, but I think one of them does. If I was playing the pick 4, I would be taking all 8 but the two I view as play againsts.


Play Against:

Juanitas Fury
 If she was the filly she ended last year as, then she far outclasses this field. But, Bax seems to have a habit of not bringing them back good from 2 to 3, at least not right away. Her qualifier wasn't wowing, and she could easily be short, hurting, or just not good enough yet. I will play against her and the likely very short price. Its a risky play.

Olympic Son Has a world of talent, and a set of problems to go with it. Namely a poor gait at times and the propensity to run if he doesn't get his own way. His short price tonight tells me to play against him as well.


Race 10

Bets

 American In Paris  $8 to win
Beach Gal   $6 to win








American In Paris-  The toughest race and call of the night. Sure, she has disappointed three times now at short odds. But, the first time she missed by a nose and wasn't fit enough to race aggresively. The second time she simply couldn't hold off a very sharp mare, who she meets again tonight. Last time, she got trapped in and came too late. But all three times,  she finished great and she is still very good and has been 2nd 3 times in a row at this very class...one which she dominated last fall. Top call, with the hopes the price goes up a bit here. I think it will. 

Beach Gal- Paced her two last quarters both in under 27 last time. You don't see that often with a horse coming off a long layoff. She is likely to be even a bit tighter tonight, but she must get away a bit closer to take down high end mares like these. Jody is aware of that, and you can expect him in the top 5 early and out and going in some capacity. All of that likely works to my choices favor, having something live to follow. I don't know that she takes down my choice, but she is certainly capable enough. 

Rock N Roll Example- In a major head shaker, J. Mac goes all the way to Miami Valley to drive Waasmula,  finishes a solid 3rd in 50 and a piece, wins two in a row with her in this class,and then ditches her and her good post for this one. She is hard to not include, but I don't like her chances from out in the 9 hole tonight. So, I will list her 3rd  but not bet her.

Play Against:

Waasmula
 As mentioned above, J Mac goes elsewhere, against this razor sharp mare, who is the best she has ever been. I will play against her, only because of his lack of confidence in her, and that I have always hated her anyway. I understand he does that mostly to keep in the good books with Menary, but it still shows a pretty big lack of condidence in her. 


Race 11

Bets

Marlee b  $10 to win




Marlee B-  I tried to find one I thought could beat her and her likely very short price. I just couldn't. She has burned chalk before when she drops until she improves her form, but there just isn't anything in here she can't blow by in the lane if she is anywhere in contention. I doubt Trevor lets her get far out of it,  so, I will take the short price on this one.

Empress Deo - Is tempting to play against, but if the top choice somehow fails, she could bring 7-2 and bite me. So, I wont. I will just leave her and take my chances with the single.

xxxx- None of the rest look dangerous enough to threaten my top 2.

Play Against:

None

 Race 12

Bets

Code One Hanover  $8 to win

Exotic $2 , exactor wheel  3 with 2,6,8,10 ($8)




Code One Hanover-  She is worth a shot in a race where many might take big money based on last years performance. Its strictly a price play and she needs many things to go her way tonight. She won the Superfinal last year. She is no slouch herself and has one under her belt. Jack Darling brings them ready to perform and P Mac does well with him as a rule when the circumstances favor him. Good post, proper class,  good form. Top call.

Solar Sister - 2nd best to JK Shesalady is pretty much like being the best in the world after the absolute best. She comes back here tough post, and I will just watch to see where she is at. Looks like a big season in store for her. Tonight, I want to see how she looks.

xxxx- I dont like any of the others, and view most of them as solid play againsts for various reasons, which I will list.

Play Against:

An Angel Shes Not Has certainly improved, but a short price is likely tonight and this is a pretty tough group. I don't see her as good enough to double up on this entire bunch.

Southwind Mischief 

Did not finish the year off well at all, and in fact looked spent. I'm not certain she is top shelf after she was used so hard to make money like she was..which she did. I will take my chances playing against her tonight. She could prove me wrong and it could backfire. 

Your My Secret

Has hit the wall in my view, and with the tougher mares out now, she will have a hard time winning her way out of this class. Not sure where she goes from here,  but this doesn't look like a good spot. She didn't look like she wanted to be out there last time, even when McNair got to slashing her.

Diana Santana

Had trouble enough passing mares that can't handle the best of this bunch, let alone stakes bearcats who she wont ever likely see for a long time when they make their way to the stakes engagements.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 14, 2015

Overall Bets: $125
Best Win Bet: $6 win on Miss Sangria in the 7th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $4 win on Casimir LowGear in the 6th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Miss Sangria in the 7th
Best Show Bet: $10 show on Wildcat Lightning in the 10th
Best exactor bet: Race 8 $4 , 5-1 ($4)
Longshot exactor bet:  Race 2 $1 exa pw 2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5 ($12)
Best Exotic Bet: Race 6 $1 pk 3 (1,2,3,5,8 with 3 with 1,5) ($10)
Worst Bet: Piscean to win. $6 against.
Most likely high superfecta payout: Race 2



Race 1

Bets
Magical Gem $10 to win

No exotics

Magical Gem--Seems to be getting better every time. Post 9 isn't a big deal when you can leave and many take back or hold on leaving just trying to not break stride. Getting picked off by a stakes type like Tyrone Zoey last time doesn't phase me at all. She beat the balance. None of this balance is any better than those. Fillion knows how to win.

Sassy Dreamer--Went on a front end mission last time and tried to wire them. Didn't work, and even the 3rd horse was getting to her. Her short price dictates to me tonight to go elsewhere. 

xxxx-- I don't see a 3rd horse that threatens the top 2. Many have the talent to be good at some point. Most of those have issues that are being ironed out still. Hard to put money in their direction. I wont. 
Play Against: 
Lady Ping Is always around, and looks good doing it. Winning seems to be an issue, and maybe winning is not really being tried for at this point. I will wait for a week when the price floats up and maybe she can take them all down. Short price tonight, play against again. 

Race 2

Bets
Play Ground $2 to win
Delerium $2 to win


Exactor: $1 exa pw 2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5 ($15)

Play Ground--Toughest race of the night for me to sort out. Can't say I like my top two choices that much. But I don't care at all for the likely top 3 betting options, not at the odds they likely bring tonight. I went with the only two I see at all viable from the balance. CC has a way of getting the most of these. I will go here and hope for the best. Not confident in this one though. For sure.

Delerium--At one time, she looked like a pretty good prospect to be a condition mare. She simply hasn't panned out. She does have enough talent to put it all together one night, and JJ is a longshot specialist with these types. She wouldn't shock me, but I'm not holding my breath waiting for her win picture tonight. Longshot chance if the top ones fail.

A Lot of Sense- Would have been a top play for me if I thought she was reliable enough. But, I suspect off her win, the price will not be favorable and she isn't reliable enough to take a shot with. Pass. 
Play Against: 
Thrill Chaser has scored in her last and just missed in the previous. She is a total trip mare and that luck is bound to go against her. Short price tonight, I will go against her. She is sharp though. No doubt.

Knee Slapper is talented enough. She is also pretty lame. Short price on her, I will also go against her. Too many in here to take down. She is more likely on the ticket, but not the winner. 

Frosty Delight is going to win one at some point. Could that be tonight? I suppose it could. But, she will likely be short odds tonight off her last, and I will take my chances. I thought about using her in my top 3, but she just doesn't wow me enough to play that short price. I am keeping my eye on her. When the bomb price comes, and there is a big chalk fave I think can be beat, I will be a passenger on her train that night. 

Race 3

Bets
None.
No exotics

xxxx--I could not find one I like in here. Even at long odds, they are hard to justify. So, I will not. I will just give you one at short odds I feel is worth playing against.


Play Against: 
Piscean Race good last time. But, is still a very green maiden and is likely hammered tonight. I think playing against him is the smart move. We have seen many times, even just this week, how risky young trotters are that show you something, then remind you that they don't have a clue what they are doing out there yet and start running like a T bred. The rail is no picnic for any green trotter. Beware. If you play her, better you than me.

Race 4

Bets
Dancingatnight $10 to win

No exotics

Dancingatnight--Followed along well last time and was outpaced by two who had an experience and conditioning edge on her. She doesn't meet those two here, and the ones she does with short odds don't look any better overall than her. I will take the price and go all in on her.

Mesmerize Blue Chip--Certainly has a shot. But the odds might be a shade low, and maybe she isn't being raced all out tonight for the win. She wouldn't shock me if she won it. Pass and watch tonight.

Tailwind Hanover--The talent is there. No doubt. But, she runs in so bad most of the way, and terribly in the stretch, that she would need to clear down the backside, open up enough so she could go wide into the turn and have enough room to run in down the lane while she opens up. She could get that trip tonight,  so I wont play against her. But, you can't rely on that betting on her at the still low price she brings. Pass. 
Play Against: 
Got Some Spark Certainly qualified well, but she is a first time starter, and they rarely win. She also doesn't show the overall speed of many of these. Not yet. I expect to see Randy bury her and have her finish strong, for 3rd or 4th. For the win, I don't see her beating all the possible ones in here who can. Who that is I'm not certain, but I doubt its her.

Race5

Bets
Artic Tale $4 to win
New Favorite $4 to win
Bullet  $2 to win
No exotics

Arctic Tale--obviously putting him on top is risky. He has serious issues and he could easily be running and distanced at the start. That is the risk you take with him. He could also be sorted out enough to blow them away. First start off the claim for Johnson,  and maybe the 2nd qualifier he figured him out. Maybe not.Your call. Mine..for the price...top call. 

New Favorite--can leave a bit and grinds. The type that might get the 2 hole trip and pick up the pieces on a night like this. Needs a lot to go his way, but the price will be there and J. Mac finds trips and seems with these types all the time. Byron isn't likely to bring a 6 claimer to WEG unless he thinks he can do. We shall see.

Bullet--I rate him 3rd only on the trainer change from Montini to Auciello. It is my view that Montini is terrible with trotters, so, any change of any kind brings hope. Don't like the horse much, but I will give him a shot with this angle. Very minor, longshot chance. He has handled these before, but he is spotty at best. Hoping for some kind of miracle change here. 
Play Against: 
Hava Kadabra is the logical horse. Two wins out of his last three, with trainer/driver Luc in the bike. He gets the rail, and logically, he is on top at the half and the one to chase down. He does have competition for the lead from the 10 horse, and others, and he will have to work for it. My experience with these types is that they don't hold form enough to justify the type of price he brings tonight. At the likely 7-5 or less, I will play against him. Could he go all the way? Sure. But he is more likely not to. 

Race 6

Bets
Casimir Low Gear $4 to win
Shipps Expectancy $4 to win


$1 pick 3 (1,2,3,5,8 with 3 with 1,5) $10

Casimir Low Gear--Interference in his last two with these, and he still only got beat 2 lengths at the wire. He won in 53 and a piece on this circuit last year,  and he was a big price that night. I will take my chances on him and the likely big price here also. Many of the "logical ones" in here have swiss cheese holes in them. So does he, but at least I get some odds to take my chances with. 

Shipps Expectancy--Goes first time off the claim for Bowins, a noted sharp trainer/driver/owner who only claims what he knows will make him money. The horse likes the front, we all know that, and he can get it this time from the 2 hole. That is where Bowins will be putting him. With the right kind of trip, he can last with this bad bunch. At a likely 8-1 or higher, I will use him also. 

xxxx-I have no 3rd horse to play in this bunch, although I realize any of these rats could step up. I wouldn't waste my money on any of them.

 Play Against:  
Click Boom. Drops here but he is so inconsistent, mainly due to his issues, which mostly consist of him running in horribly and not having much grit to begin with.  When he trips out and can head the leader the odd time, he wins, but like most Rambaran's, that form is short lived and he reverts back to his sub par ways. With a likely short price coming here, I will pass on him and look elsewhere.

Race 7

Bets
Miss Sangria $6 to win
Beach Sunset $2 to win

No exotics

Miss Sangria--Is a maiden no more if she doesn't hook Southwind Ginger last week. So, she arrives here as a mare who should be up at nw2 that gets to race maidens again. Anything close to her last start dominates this bunch. Top call.

Beach Sunset--Wasn't ready to compete in the winter, so she was shut down. Back at it at Flamboro, she qualified okay but Wallace decided to qualifier her one more time at Mohawk and race her here. Her 27.2 second last Q suggests she has come around, and she is the one who likely beats my top choice if she is going down. Wallace will generally not race maidens at WEG if he thinks they need a few starts at the B's. Beware of her. The two in front of her in that last Qua are high end stakes fillies.

xxxx-I have no 3rd horse to play in this bunch. Black Queen is going to win this class one of these days. I can't play her from the 8 hole. She needs a lot to go her way to win, and I don't see it. Betty and The Jets is a Jereme's Jet from the 10 hole who is 0 for 10 and will bring a somewhat short price. Pass on both, but I wouldn't play against them either.

 Play Against:  
Abbijade Hanover. I don't like her breeding, and her qualifiers don't impress me. Maybe she will develop. At this point, she isn't good enough to justify a shorter price. 

Race  8

Bets
Unabating $8 to win

Exactor: $4 , 5-1

Unabating--With this very soft bunch, his back class and freshness, added to the combo of Trevor and Puddy, who don't race to get back in shape, indicates that his likely price justifies putting him on top ahead of the likely chalk who will draw heavy action. He hasn't seen a soft bunch like this in a very long time. He is here to score, and then jam, take two in a row and go to another barn.

Rival Seelster--WIs the obvious play on the Moreau angle. Claimed for 10 off House, the horse showed some talent at 2 in Sire Stakes, but bombed out last year. Has come around this year and is currently very sharp. Add the rail, Moreau, Fillion and a soft field, and I think he is right there, but 2nd best tonight to the top choice.

xxxx-I have no 3rd horse to play in this bunch. Joseph Girard is good enough when he is sound. Who knows if that is tonight? Watch him post parade and score out fast, and make your call. I will pass on him tonight. The rest don't look competitive to me. Bruce The Brave will have to be seen on the trainer change. Sixth Man has blown up the tote board before with Renaud at the controls, and taking the highest tag and the 10 hole is a warning sign, but I wont touch him tonight. He is dangerous however.

 Play Against:  
Blush And Crush . Is a major trip horse on her best day, and the 9 hole suggests she is tripping out tonight to hopefully take down 3rd or 4th, but not the win. 

Race  9

Bets
Mass Rail $4 to win
Stay In Touch $4 to win

Flexceptional $2 to win

Exactor: $1 box 3-5-6 ($6)

Mass Rail--Gets my top call. Hard to argue with Trevor driving his own horse and Moreau fine tuning her. Not that she needed much more anyway. She trottet in 55 last time to be a solid 2nd and has been knocking on the door lately as it was. It wont be easy. There are some good ones here. Slight top choice over the other two. She is no cinch.

Stay In Touch--Qualified twice, the 2nd much better than the first. She was behind a superstar trotting filly and one who showed big time ability at times last year. She looks ready to go and has stakes credentials herself. Could have been my top choice. Top choice has racing edge on her this year. She could turn the tables anyway.

Flexceptional-Gets one more try from me, at the big odds she will finally bring tonight. She has had bad trips, suspect drives and she is her own worst enemy at times. That doesn't mean she isn't going to step up one night and beat them all. Tyrell is too good. He wouldn't keep bringing her back if he thought she needed to race at a B track.

 Play Against:  
Tymal Signature . Waters get much deeper tonight. She simply doesn't strike me as one who can go with these high end ones. Another week, when she draws a softer bunch, or when the Sire Stakes start up, she is more viable.

Race  10

Bets
Wildcat Lightning $4 to win
Grantland $4 to win
Opening Night Gem $2 to win


Exactor: none

Wildcat Lightning--Looks ready to graduate. His racelines are solid, he has some breeding and he is likely sent out to the top or near it. He looks like he can go a bit more than some of the top ones in here, although he might not be the best overall prospect in the long run.

Grantland--Took several seconds off his first qualifier following a Breeders Crown type horse. He takes 2 more seconds off, he is right there. Chancy to see what he can do under the lights. For the price, I will take that chance.
Opening Night Gem-Ships in from Northfield. Generally not a good angle for this circuit. But, he has gone 56 over that track, shown he can win, and has the breeding to suggest there is more there. Iffy chance.

 Play Against:  
Draft Seelster . Sure he went in 54 in his qualifier. But he had already showed that kind of speed last year,  then got beat in 56 in a maiden. 9 hole tonight, and the price will be somewhat short. I'd wait a start and see what he shows. 

Scary Harry. Yes he went fast at Balmoral. Cheap speed does that at Balmoral. The majority come here and don't get  it done when they face more overall challengers than the majority at Balmoral who are phony claimers and can't do much.

Race  11

Bets
Faithful Friend $2 to win
Mo Molly Blue Chip $2 to win
Southwind Ginger $2 to win


Exactor: none

Faithful Friend--Goes second time for trainer driver Zeron, and looked good doing it the first time. Zeron usually test drives these types once before he races to win. She has a decent shot tonight, but so do others. Lukewarm top call.

Mo Molly Blue Chip--Went a good trip against the pace odds last time and has enough upside to think she can be there if things work out. Another with a shot, but just a shot. 

Southwind Ginger-Hard to go against Adams right now. She steps up a level, and there are some returning stakes bearcats in here to keep her price in the playable range. She isn't my favorite, but respect must be given to the octane she has pumped in the tank.

 Play Against:  

None