WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 14, 2015

Overall Bets: $125
Best Win Bet: $6 win on Miss Sangria in the 7th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $4 win on Casimir LowGear in the 6th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Miss Sangria in the 7th
Best Show Bet: $10 show on Wildcat Lightning in the 10th
Best exactor bet: Race 8 $4 , 5-1 ($4)
Longshot exactor bet:  Race 2 $1 exa pw 2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5 ($12)
Best Exotic Bet: Race 6 $1 pk 3 (1,2,3,5,8 with 3 with 1,5) ($10)
Worst Bet: Piscean to win. $6 against.
Most likely high superfecta payout: Race 2



Race 1

Bets
Magical Gem $10 to win

No exotics

Magical Gem--Seems to be getting better every time. Post 9 isn't a big deal when you can leave and many take back or hold on leaving just trying to not break stride. Getting picked off by a stakes type like Tyrone Zoey last time doesn't phase me at all. She beat the balance. None of this balance is any better than those. Fillion knows how to win.

Sassy Dreamer--Went on a front end mission last time and tried to wire them. Didn't work, and even the 3rd horse was getting to her. Her short price dictates to me tonight to go elsewhere. 

xxxx-- I don't see a 3rd horse that threatens the top 2. Many have the talent to be good at some point. Most of those have issues that are being ironed out still. Hard to put money in their direction. I wont. 
Play Against: 
Lady Ping Is always around, and looks good doing it. Winning seems to be an issue, and maybe winning is not really being tried for at this point. I will wait for a week when the price floats up and maybe she can take them all down. Short price tonight, play against again. 

Race 2

Bets
Play Ground $2 to win
Delerium $2 to win


Exactor: $1 exa pw 2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5 ($15)

Play Ground--Toughest race of the night for me to sort out. Can't say I like my top two choices that much. But I don't care at all for the likely top 3 betting options, not at the odds they likely bring tonight. I went with the only two I see at all viable from the balance. CC has a way of getting the most of these. I will go here and hope for the best. Not confident in this one though. For sure.

Delerium--At one time, she looked like a pretty good prospect to be a condition mare. She simply hasn't panned out. She does have enough talent to put it all together one night, and JJ is a longshot specialist with these types. She wouldn't shock me, but I'm not holding my breath waiting for her win picture tonight. Longshot chance if the top ones fail.

A Lot of Sense- Would have been a top play for me if I thought she was reliable enough. But, I suspect off her win, the price will not be favorable and she isn't reliable enough to take a shot with. Pass. 
Play Against: 
Thrill Chaser has scored in her last and just missed in the previous. She is a total trip mare and that luck is bound to go against her. Short price tonight, I will go against her. She is sharp though. No doubt.

Knee Slapper is talented enough. She is also pretty lame. Short price on her, I will also go against her. Too many in here to take down. She is more likely on the ticket, but not the winner. 

Frosty Delight is going to win one at some point. Could that be tonight? I suppose it could. But, she will likely be short odds tonight off her last, and I will take my chances. I thought about using her in my top 3, but she just doesn't wow me enough to play that short price. I am keeping my eye on her. When the bomb price comes, and there is a big chalk fave I think can be beat, I will be a passenger on her train that night. 

Race 3

Bets
None.
No exotics

xxxx--I could not find one I like in here. Even at long odds, they are hard to justify. So, I will not. I will just give you one at short odds I feel is worth playing against.


Play Against: 
Piscean Race good last time. But, is still a very green maiden and is likely hammered tonight. I think playing against him is the smart move. We have seen many times, even just this week, how risky young trotters are that show you something, then remind you that they don't have a clue what they are doing out there yet and start running like a T bred. The rail is no picnic for any green trotter. Beware. If you play her, better you than me.

Race 4

Bets
Dancingatnight $10 to win

No exotics

Dancingatnight--Followed along well last time and was outpaced by two who had an experience and conditioning edge on her. She doesn't meet those two here, and the ones she does with short odds don't look any better overall than her. I will take the price and go all in on her.

Mesmerize Blue Chip--Certainly has a shot. But the odds might be a shade low, and maybe she isn't being raced all out tonight for the win. She wouldn't shock me if she won it. Pass and watch tonight.

Tailwind Hanover--The talent is there. No doubt. But, she runs in so bad most of the way, and terribly in the stretch, that she would need to clear down the backside, open up enough so she could go wide into the turn and have enough room to run in down the lane while she opens up. She could get that trip tonight,  so I wont play against her. But, you can't rely on that betting on her at the still low price she brings. Pass. 
Play Against: 
Got Some Spark Certainly qualified well, but she is a first time starter, and they rarely win. She also doesn't show the overall speed of many of these. Not yet. I expect to see Randy bury her and have her finish strong, for 3rd or 4th. For the win, I don't see her beating all the possible ones in here who can. Who that is I'm not certain, but I doubt its her.

Race5

Bets
Artic Tale $4 to win
New Favorite $4 to win
Bullet  $2 to win
No exotics

Arctic Tale--obviously putting him on top is risky. He has serious issues and he could easily be running and distanced at the start. That is the risk you take with him. He could also be sorted out enough to blow them away. First start off the claim for Johnson,  and maybe the 2nd qualifier he figured him out. Maybe not.Your call. Mine..for the price...top call. 

New Favorite--can leave a bit and grinds. The type that might get the 2 hole trip and pick up the pieces on a night like this. Needs a lot to go his way, but the price will be there and J. Mac finds trips and seems with these types all the time. Byron isn't likely to bring a 6 claimer to WEG unless he thinks he can do. We shall see.

Bullet--I rate him 3rd only on the trainer change from Montini to Auciello. It is my view that Montini is terrible with trotters, so, any change of any kind brings hope. Don't like the horse much, but I will give him a shot with this angle. Very minor, longshot chance. He has handled these before, but he is spotty at best. Hoping for some kind of miracle change here. 
Play Against: 
Hava Kadabra is the logical horse. Two wins out of his last three, with trainer/driver Luc in the bike. He gets the rail, and logically, he is on top at the half and the one to chase down. He does have competition for the lead from the 10 horse, and others, and he will have to work for it. My experience with these types is that they don't hold form enough to justify the type of price he brings tonight. At the likely 7-5 or less, I will play against him. Could he go all the way? Sure. But he is more likely not to. 

Race 6

Bets
Casimir Low Gear $4 to win
Shipps Expectancy $4 to win


$1 pick 3 (1,2,3,5,8 with 3 with 1,5) $10

Casimir Low Gear--Interference in his last two with these, and he still only got beat 2 lengths at the wire. He won in 53 and a piece on this circuit last year,  and he was a big price that night. I will take my chances on him and the likely big price here also. Many of the "logical ones" in here have swiss cheese holes in them. So does he, but at least I get some odds to take my chances with. 

Shipps Expectancy--Goes first time off the claim for Bowins, a noted sharp trainer/driver/owner who only claims what he knows will make him money. The horse likes the front, we all know that, and he can get it this time from the 2 hole. That is where Bowins will be putting him. With the right kind of trip, he can last with this bad bunch. At a likely 8-1 or higher, I will use him also. 

xxxx-I have no 3rd horse to play in this bunch, although I realize any of these rats could step up. I wouldn't waste my money on any of them.

 Play Against:  
Click Boom. Drops here but he is so inconsistent, mainly due to his issues, which mostly consist of him running in horribly and not having much grit to begin with.  When he trips out and can head the leader the odd time, he wins, but like most Rambaran's, that form is short lived and he reverts back to his sub par ways. With a likely short price coming here, I will pass on him and look elsewhere.

Race 7

Bets
Miss Sangria $6 to win
Beach Sunset $2 to win

No exotics

Miss Sangria--Is a maiden no more if she doesn't hook Southwind Ginger last week. So, she arrives here as a mare who should be up at nw2 that gets to race maidens again. Anything close to her last start dominates this bunch. Top call.

Beach Sunset--Wasn't ready to compete in the winter, so she was shut down. Back at it at Flamboro, she qualified okay but Wallace decided to qualifier her one more time at Mohawk and race her here. Her 27.2 second last Q suggests she has come around, and she is the one who likely beats my top choice if she is going down. Wallace will generally not race maidens at WEG if he thinks they need a few starts at the B's. Beware of her. The two in front of her in that last Qua are high end stakes fillies.

xxxx-I have no 3rd horse to play in this bunch. Black Queen is going to win this class one of these days. I can't play her from the 8 hole. She needs a lot to go her way to win, and I don't see it. Betty and The Jets is a Jereme's Jet from the 10 hole who is 0 for 10 and will bring a somewhat short price. Pass on both, but I wouldn't play against them either.

 Play Against:  
Abbijade Hanover. I don't like her breeding, and her qualifiers don't impress me. Maybe she will develop. At this point, she isn't good enough to justify a shorter price. 

Race  8

Bets
Unabating $8 to win

Exactor: $4 , 5-1

Unabating--With this very soft bunch, his back class and freshness, added to the combo of Trevor and Puddy, who don't race to get back in shape, indicates that his likely price justifies putting him on top ahead of the likely chalk who will draw heavy action. He hasn't seen a soft bunch like this in a very long time. He is here to score, and then jam, take two in a row and go to another barn.

Rival Seelster--WIs the obvious play on the Moreau angle. Claimed for 10 off House, the horse showed some talent at 2 in Sire Stakes, but bombed out last year. Has come around this year and is currently very sharp. Add the rail, Moreau, Fillion and a soft field, and I think he is right there, but 2nd best tonight to the top choice.

xxxx-I have no 3rd horse to play in this bunch. Joseph Girard is good enough when he is sound. Who knows if that is tonight? Watch him post parade and score out fast, and make your call. I will pass on him tonight. The rest don't look competitive to me. Bruce The Brave will have to be seen on the trainer change. Sixth Man has blown up the tote board before with Renaud at the controls, and taking the highest tag and the 10 hole is a warning sign, but I wont touch him tonight. He is dangerous however.

 Play Against:  
Blush And Crush . Is a major trip horse on her best day, and the 9 hole suggests she is tripping out tonight to hopefully take down 3rd or 4th, but not the win. 

Race  9

Bets
Mass Rail $4 to win
Stay In Touch $4 to win

Flexceptional $2 to win

Exactor: $1 box 3-5-6 ($6)

Mass Rail--Gets my top call. Hard to argue with Trevor driving his own horse and Moreau fine tuning her. Not that she needed much more anyway. She trottet in 55 last time to be a solid 2nd and has been knocking on the door lately as it was. It wont be easy. There are some good ones here. Slight top choice over the other two. She is no cinch.

Stay In Touch--Qualified twice, the 2nd much better than the first. She was behind a superstar trotting filly and one who showed big time ability at times last year. She looks ready to go and has stakes credentials herself. Could have been my top choice. Top choice has racing edge on her this year. She could turn the tables anyway.

Flexceptional-Gets one more try from me, at the big odds she will finally bring tonight. She has had bad trips, suspect drives and she is her own worst enemy at times. That doesn't mean she isn't going to step up one night and beat them all. Tyrell is too good. He wouldn't keep bringing her back if he thought she needed to race at a B track.

 Play Against:  
Tymal Signature . Waters get much deeper tonight. She simply doesn't strike me as one who can go with these high end ones. Another week, when she draws a softer bunch, or when the Sire Stakes start up, she is more viable.

Race  10

Bets
Wildcat Lightning $4 to win
Grantland $4 to win
Opening Night Gem $2 to win


Exactor: none

Wildcat Lightning--Looks ready to graduate. His racelines are solid, he has some breeding and he is likely sent out to the top or near it. He looks like he can go a bit more than some of the top ones in here, although he might not be the best overall prospect in the long run.

Grantland--Took several seconds off his first qualifier following a Breeders Crown type horse. He takes 2 more seconds off, he is right there. Chancy to see what he can do under the lights. For the price, I will take that chance.
Opening Night Gem-Ships in from Northfield. Generally not a good angle for this circuit. But, he has gone 56 over that track, shown he can win, and has the breeding to suggest there is more there. Iffy chance.

 Play Against:  
Draft Seelster . Sure he went in 54 in his qualifier. But he had already showed that kind of speed last year,  then got beat in 56 in a maiden. 9 hole tonight, and the price will be somewhat short. I'd wait a start and see what he shows. 

Scary Harry. Yes he went fast at Balmoral. Cheap speed does that at Balmoral. The majority come here and don't get  it done when they face more overall challengers than the majority at Balmoral who are phony claimers and can't do much.

Race  11

Bets
Faithful Friend $2 to win
Mo Molly Blue Chip $2 to win
Southwind Ginger $2 to win


Exactor: none

Faithful Friend--Goes second time for trainer driver Zeron, and looked good doing it the first time. Zeron usually test drives these types once before he races to win. She has a decent shot tonight, but so do others. Lukewarm top call.

Mo Molly Blue Chip--Went a good trip against the pace odds last time and has enough upside to think she can be there if things work out. Another with a shot, but just a shot. 

Southwind Ginger-Hard to go against Adams right now. She steps up a level, and there are some returning stakes bearcats in here to keep her price in the playable range. She isn't my favorite, but respect must be given to the octane she has pumped in the tank.

 Play Against:  

None

Being The Eye In The Sky

I used to love the show LOU GRANT. It was a spinoff of The Mary Tyler Moore Show, but it really had nothing in common with it. It wasn't a comedy, nor did it try to be. It took the news element, and the Lou Grant character, and it tackled many issues of the day that others wouldn't touch at that point.
I watched it every week and never got tired of it.
One of those issues was the use of legalized gambling to act as a hidden tax on the masses to pay for things like schools and health care. In those days, it was in its infancy. These days, every state, country and city is on board with milking that cow for every drop they can squeeze out.

One of my favorite episodes, and one I remember clearly, was one where the newspaper was investigating cheating at the racetrack and fixing of races. It was titled GAMBLING, and I have included it below if you wish to watch it. What they describe in that episode goes on all the time, every day, as most of us know. Not that much, maybe 1 percent of 1 percent of 1 percent, or less, of all races. But still, that is about 5 or 6 races (at least) of all the races that go on around the globe each day.

Of course, I can't possibly figure out what is going on in a place like Hong Kong or Australia or Dubai. But, if you follow just a few tracks, and know a bit about the players already, you can spot what is going on.
In the LOU GRANT episode, this old guy at the track was one of those guys that did just that. He traveled from track to track, and he made it his job to figure out when a scam or score was being run. He had figured out that a horse (now called VESPI) that was about to run and win had been switched in for another horse who was a no talent/no good horse (the actual horse VESPI). In other words, they had disposed of the previous horse, and took this new horse and passed him off as the other one. It would be similar to saying you sent up a pitcher who can't hit, switched in a Rod Carew (one of the greatest pure hitters of all time), and not telling anyone bet on whether he would get a hit off the worst pitcher in the league. The odds you get on the pitcher getting the hit vs. Rod Carew getting a hit would be staggering, and very few would be onto it if you did it right. Its not obvious to anyone but those who really pay attention for such things.
In horse racing, they call such a scam running a "ringer." There are many other ways the scam can be run. Holding back a horse, but not really holding back a horse. Driving or riding a horse into trouble so they can't succeed and you don't look like you did anything wrong other than perform badly. Undertraining a horse so he isn't fit for a while, and then doing the opposite. It goes on and on.
In the episode, the old guy, Mort, describes how it goes. 

"How many times you think something like this happens? Not very often. Horses are honest. The owners, trainers and jockeys....I don't trust."

http://www.si.com/vault/1977/11/14/626996/is-this-horse-that-horse

The LOU GRANT story was based on a real story and situation that happened at Belmont Park in New York in 1977. A horse from Uruguay was substituted for another horse from there when they were both shipped to the U.S., the cheaper, less talented one was then either killed or gotten rid of, and the much superior horse was put in his place and run, but after he was made to look like the bad one first by running him poorly. The connections who pulled it off won a very large bet. Like most cheaters, they got caught because they were idiots who weren't sophisticated enough to pull off such a scam.

Frank Castanza: My George isn't clever enough to hatch a scheme like this. 
Elaine Benes: You got that right.
Frank Castanza: What the hell does that mean?
Elaine Benes: That means whatever the hell you want it to mean.
Frank Castanza: You saying.....you want a piece of me?
 
On the TV show, the reporters were investigating gambling and track goings on. However, they weren't on to the scam. The old guy, Mort, tipped off Lou Grant to the scam---after he made the profit. In the meantime, Lou Grant had befriended Mort and when Mort got sick, he asked Lou to make the bet for him, and told him to bet everything he owns on VESPI. Mort made the score on that horse, and he did it by paying attention to the little things that others were missing. The new horse wasn't  VESPI, and Mort detected that. He kept his mouth shut, wasn't part of the scam, but profited because he figured it out and knew what they were doing, and waited for them to try and execute the score. Which they did. Just like George Castanza, these types aren't clever enough to pull off a scheme like this for long and get away with it. They are screw ups and they will find a way to get caught. Which they did in real life and on the LOU GRANT episode. 
At the end of the episode, this is the key exchange, as Lou gives Mort the $35,000 he made betting on the horse that appeared to be VESPI, but was in fact not VESPI.

Lou Grant: You knew the race was fixed. How? Well, what's the scam? I want to know.
Mort: ....I'm no snitch.
Lou Grant: But you knew it. Somebody must have tipped you.
Mort: Lou, nobody tipped me. I figured it out myself. That horse wasn't Vespi.
Lou Grant: What!
Mort: It came to me. Took me a while to figure it out, but you know, last year, I saw that Vespi run..once...he ran dead last..with a funny sort of a gait. But the point is, the Pimlico Vespi...was not the Vespi who ran today. There was a switch. Somebody made a switch.

It would be great if nobody ever cheated at horse racing. Or sports. Or in life, politics or on Wall Street. But that isn't reality. People will always do that. It isn't your job to police or stop them, and even if you wanted to, you likely couldn't. And shouldn't. It isn't your business.
But if they are going to cheat, and you can figure it out, and others can't, then you can profit. That is a big part of figuring out how to make money betting horses--or investing in stocks.
Sure, most can figure out the shadow trainers and who they are fronting for. But, since everyone can do that, the value of the bets you get on those are minimal at best. If everyone knows it, it isn't any good to you. The same can be said for the guys who have the new cheater drug or juice. They are obvious about what they are doing, and everyone is on to them. They win a lot, but they still lose enough and when they win, the masses are all over them. You don't end up making any serious, significant money at the end of the day.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/arrests-rock-penn-national/
 
This type of scam happened a couple of years ago at Penn National, and those running it got caught. Before they did, you can be sure plenty of people who weren't involved in the scam, and some that were, made a lot of money betting on horses who were deliberately made to appear different on the program than they were in reality. It is hard to detect it before it is exposed, but it's not impossible. Criminals as a rule are stupid and don't make a huge effort to hide what they are doing, even though they think that they are. That, in reality, is where you can make a great deal of the money you can make betting, in addition to just grinding it out with good overall handicapping and data work.
For those who are "the eye in the sky" and pay attention, the real crafty cheaters present an easy way to make money, and very few can detect them. It takes hard work, quite a bit of smarts, and paying attention to patterns and certain details of what they do, when they do it and how they go about it.
Just like in the episode, if you use your time wisely and figure that out, you get the payoff for that.
Which reminds me of the Alan Parsons song, which wasn't about that persay, but is and was certainly relevant. 

 That's how it goes
'Cause part of me knows what you're thinking...

I am the eye in the sky
Looking at you
I can read your mind
I am the maker of rules
Dealing with fools
I can cheat you blind
And I don't need to see any more
To know that I can read your mind, I can read your mind

Don't leave false illusions behind
Don't cry 'cause I ain't changing my mind
So find another fool like before
'Cause I ain't gonna live anymore believing
Some of the lies while all of the signs are deceiving

 I have learned, over time, to pay attention to the very little details others miss, and capitalize on them when the situation is right to do so. I viewed that Lou Grant episode before I ever attended a horse race in 1982, but I never forgot it. I spend many years thinking I could beat the races solely on good handicapping, which I can do well, but not enough to actually make the kind of profit I wish to make. Many others do the same, and they get beat by just the type of horse that beat the masses at Belmont, in the Lou Grant episode and at Penn National.
I make it a point these days to be on the right end of that equation, not the wrong end. I wish they didn't cheat, and there was no cheating in this world. But there is, and if I can't stop it, I will at least profit from it while it happens. 
I will conclude with a quote from a very old song that relates to that. 

 I'd love to change the world
But I don't know what to do
So I'll leave it up to you
Population keeps on breeding
Nation bleeding, still more feeding economy
Life is funny, skies are sunny
Bees make honey, who needs money, No none for me
I'd love to change the world
But I don't know what to do
So I'll leave it up to you

January 22, 2015

Race 7

   1 Chantilly Rose

toss, doesn't look like she belongs for trainer Zhok, who has a long history of racing horses miles over their head. Back to Flamboro after this or one more beating.  
        
   2 Frosty Delight  

really bad gaited mare with a poor gate but nice speed and kind of tough. Mario gunned her out last time and was lucky he didn't cause and accident when she scattered them. At best, they made an adjustment, he drivers her carefully this time  to see if that works, and he comes late for a small piece, and she is a win threat next time.  
              
   3 Alot Of Sense             
     
very low percentage 4 year old mare who has never shown she belongs at this track. Gets a better post, but has not even been close to getting a cheque in many recent tries. Pass until she shows something. Most likely a 5 claimer at Hanover when that track opens. Maybe.  
                 
   4 Tomei Seelster                  

doesn't seem to step up her speed at the big track, because she isn't much in the first place. Likely much better off back in a conditioned claimer somewhere at the B's. She just isn't A track stock, even in the winter when they are much softer. Pass for the win. She could hit the ticket under the right circumstances with this less than stellar bunch.     
           
   5 Arienne                           

goes 2nd off the shelf for Carmen and her debut for this season was an okay following trip from the 9 hole. She was a hot ticket for him on the tote board after a private purchase, but didn't perform and was then shut down abruptly. Probably because he thought whatever her issue was she was a likely solid Grassroots horse, and he is testing her out now to see if that is the case. Tonight she gets raced to win, and is a top contender. A Mac likely guns her out of there. 
              
   6 Kiss Me Or Not      

 Has been awful for weeks, and really months, since a promising start to her career last year. She goes for trainer Snowden, who rarely gets much out of them, and MacDonnell, who can't seem to win races anymore and frankly doesn't look like he cares until the stakes season starts. She can't even leave anymore and doesn't like to work for it. Total pass for me.   

               
   7 Weekly Special                    

graduates from a solid maiden win last time and moves up to tackle "winners". But to call many in this group winners is a wild overstatement. She obviously looks like a prospect, and could take these down right away. She is in the mix, but she will have to be closer up than last time to pass them all.        
         
   8 Regal Roxy                       

B track 4 year old mare who tackles the big fish for the first time and draws the 8 hole. I suspect a test drive is in order,  as she didn't even beat one last time at London who would not do on this circuit in a maiden. She has to show she has the speed to go with these and then convert that into a win. So far, I don't see it and her breeding suggests she doesn't.     
             
   9 Play Ground                       

raced sharp last time and got up for 3rd after a following trip. Against these, she has a shot, but needs a few things to go her way. I'd use her on a minor level in case she steps up and others falter. 
               
  10 Maplelea                           

Circled a very suspect group of maidens last time, but did it with ease. These are a bit tougher, but she will likely have to do the same thing again. Maybe she doesn't want that 2nd win so fast before she learns to be more tactical. I call her for 3rd or 4th, but would use her in a minor way as I will the 9 horse.

1st   5 Arienne 
2nd   7 Weekly Special 
3rd   9 Play Ground  
4th   10 Maplelea

  

Race 8

   1 Hard Oil Button                  

 second time starter who showed nothing in her first try to suggest she can go with even this suspect bunch. Last time was a similarly poor bunch and she trailed all the way. No thanks. 
                   
   2 Ida Sofia                         

certainly has potential, but as of yet, she has not been raced to win and there is likely a reason for that. Riina wants to keep her a maiden until it is time to start moving forward. Very minor shot here only because these are so poor. I'd use here in a minor way for the pick 4 ticket, but don't see her coming through for me.    
            
   3 Franney Love Dat                  

 comes back off the shelf for Fellows, who is known to have them ready. She tried Gold Fillies last year and held her own if fast time, faster than most of these appear to be able to go. She is the likely favorite in here, and as such, hard to like, but very dangerous. She must be used, but somebody in this group will probably beat her and next week she is a more serious threat. 
           
   4 Lady Santana                     

 probably has some talent based on her breeding, but so far, her overall times and last quarters suggest she doesn't have enough for a track like this. I might use her in the pick 4, as these are just as poor as her for the most part,  but she is hard to like until she shows a bit more.    

          
              
   6 Wake N Bake                       

first time starter off the qualifier for CC and Brethour, a potent combo with these types. She went okay enough in that test,  and she hasn't proved she is a nickel slug like most of these have. Can she beat the 3 and a couple of the other contenders in here? She could. But its tough to win first lifetime start. I will use her in a minor way. 

             
   7 Arrivista Hanover                 

shows nothing to suggest she is ever going to win at this track, and I suspect will be sent packing to a new barn shortly that races at a B track where she will have a chance to pick up cheques and eventually win before settling into life as a 4 claimer at a place like Monticello or Buffalo. 

               
   8 Imacutiepatootie                 

 is fast enough to be dangerous and I think eventually will find her way and win this class. I don't think that is tonight from this post with a few that are still ahead of her on the speed and experience ladder. Pass for tonight.      

         
   9 Im A Canadian Eh                  

 looks like the type that can be very dangerous with a driver like Henry. Send her one week from the 10 hole and she is short and not ready for that. Take her back and come late to pick up 3rd the next time, all the while improving her overall time and fast quarters in a very early young career. She certainly has upset potential if the two logical ones fail for some reason. Must use in the pick 4. 

               
  10 Warrawee Qually                  

seems to have potential to win this class at some point and then go on to be an okay grassroots horse at the B tracks when May or June comes along. But her breeding suggests she will remain a cut below at this track most nights, and a back of the bus start from the 10 hole tonight excludes her for me. I will pass and watch her.  She is taking her overall time down, and if she shows she can maintain and slightly improve, I might play her next time or the time after that.


 1st   3 Franney Love Dat
2nd   6 Wake N Bake
3rd   9 Im A Canadian Eh  
4th   2 Ida Sofia

 Race 9

   1 I Am Special                     

has always been a talented, yet erratic and hard to control mare. I will continue to pass on her until I see something that suggests she is maturing out of that. At the B tracks she can get away with that. Not here.
                  
   2 Hie Benny                        

 is a talented and very well bred trotter who shows flashes of what he's got, but can't put it all together. I think he will at some point.  That could be tonight. Carmen Hie puts Trevor behind him and maybe he thinks that will make a difference. I will use him on the possibility that the top players in here bomb out and anything with talent can get it done on this night.

              
   3 Me The Boss                 

 draws inside this time, but just doesn't have the gate speed to take advantage of it. One of these nights he will blow up the tote board,  as he shows flashes of talent every once in a while. I will use him in a minor way here in case tonight is that night. 

             
   4 Headsaregonna Turn                

 is another who shows signs that he is going to pop and take these at some point. Definite use on the pick 4, and I could see him winning even if the top faves don't blow up. Must use. 

             
   5 Walk The Plank                 

   is the consistent type who finds it hard to win no matter what type of trip he gets. One of these nights he will, but he is still a maiden racing winners,some of who have mulitple wins in fast time. Cant play him at very low odds, but I will use him in a minor way on my pick 4 in case he steps up tonight when others falter. On his own, if the others behave, he is very unlikely.
                 
   6 P L Gemstone                       

tried it on the engine last time against a lower class than these and was going the wrong way at the end. Hard to like a 5 year old mare that has never won a race other than once at Kawartha against the bottom of the barrel. Pass and toss. 
              
   7 Etruscan Hanover       

       is well known for both his extreme talent and terrible manners and consistency. I will completely avoid him and take my chances that he blows up again. He got away with it once, but that was a horrific field and he reset quick enough that time. Most nights, if he runs, he keeps running and never gets his act together. If he beats me,  so be it. I wont use him at all. 
               
   8 Star Of Thunder         

 is very hard to like off his last line and the rest of the ones on the page where he was a runner and never in it. I will pass on him also. Have to see some form from him that suggests he is raceable first. 
            
   9 Cash For Gold         

     is the obvious play now that he is fit again and has shown in the past he has the high end speed to go with Etruscan and anything else in here. He is no cinch from this post, but certainly has to be used on the ticket. He is beatable though. And he is still capable of running, although he isn't as erratic as Etruscan is.
                
  10 Page In Time                   

  cannot see any way this one gets it done from the 10 hole. At best he is looking for a cheque when others falter.     


 1st   9 Cash For Gold
2nd   4 Headsaregonna Turn
3rd   2 Hie Benny   

4th   5 Walk The Plank 

 Race 10

   1 Precious Cammill   
 
Has not won at this track in a very long time but has enough back class  to pop up.  However, getting beat in a 5 claimer non winners at Flamboro makes her very hard to like against some in here who are okay in a straight 8 on this circuit. Minor use in the pick 4.    
         
   2 Jet Hot Stuff       

  always looks like she will go forward off her previous start, and looks great on the track.  But she continues to trip over her breeding at the tote board. I will play against her,  although I realize one of these nights she will put it together. 
                   
   3 Whipperosa

   did okay at Flamboro, but she is a known hanger and hardly ever wins. Austin is a fine B track driver, but doesn't do well on this circuit and I suspect she is looking for a cheque. 
                   
   4 Thrill Chaser      

  has gone backwards in recent weeks after showing some promise. Hard to like her off that form.
               
   5 Outer Drive Girl     

no shot. Not sure why she is even here. I guess as a buddy to Zhoks other one. She goes home with nothing, as her trailer buddy does is my call.
                   
   6 One Night Dance    

   can't see this one as she currently stands. She gets worse every time.  
         
   7 Itza Free For All 

goes first time off the claim for Dave Dowling, who is a sharp guy off that angle and taking this one off Glide is an interesting play, as her form is not great and she does have back class. Top call  for me in the upset. 
               
   8 Theron Seelster  
   
 Is dangerous on the trainer change and the fact that she was a pretty good mare at times last year in the States. I'd use her as an option in a field with many who look a lot more like pretenders than contenders.
             
   9 Kikiskissinkousin

 had no excuse not to get it done last time, but still got passed by a mediocre mare at the line. Post really hurts this one, and I will play against her and the likely overbet status she will bring.



 1st   Itza Free For All
2nd   8 Theron Seelster
3rd   2 Jet Hot Stuff    
4th   1 Precious Cammill