Best Bet: Anderlecht, Race 8
Longshot chances:
Lets Leavum
A Nashty Business
Nothingbutmach
Race 1
1. Saulsbrook Fork
2. Ozzy Ozzy
3. Oaklea Victor
Oaklea Victor ran last time when sitting a perfect 2 hole trip. Can he make amends? Sure he can. He is capable enough with these types. But, he usually brings a low price and has failed quite a bit. I would play against him at this point. Others have better form and look more plausible. A horse that has won 7 of 16 in the last two years cannot be tossed out, but a horse that burns chalk money consistently can't be played with confidence either.
A Nashty Business managed to get parked past the half from the 3 hole last time and backed up once he was let on the front end. As mentioned before, with another driver this horse looks like he would be dangerous. That being said, even a lousy driver can fall into a 2 hole trip now and then. So, beware of him tonight.
Flight of The Kiwi
broke again last time, his 3rd break from 5 lines on the page. He has tailed off badly from very good form a couple of months ago. When he was good, he took West Side Story all the way to the wire. His issue seems to be something more than immaturity. Probably a minor lameness issue. Until he shows he can maintain over a whole mile, he is a pass.
Alexander Lukas has not adapted well to this level after finally taking down nw2 twice. Looks like he doesn't have the overall speed for these. Now that spring has arrived,and they go faster each week, he appears to be a winter horse who has run out of time.
Ozzy Ozzy is of course the obvious choice. Right off the shelf he scored at 6-1 last time. As mentioned last week, Hayter is good at having them ready to go off a long layoff. He also has a history of having them fail 2nd start back. He likely gets it done, but at a likely 6-5, I would look elsewhere. He still has his moments where he is one stride away from going off stride.
Devries Hanover is hard to like at any price. He finds multiple ways to get beat. Among them, acting up behind the gate, running for no reason in the mile, or just having to be held and not fully driven to keep him going. Saftic hops on this time as Fillion goes back to the Moreau horse, and as mentioned last week, he is not the easiest horse to just jump on and drive. He has upset potential, and one of these days he may put it all together. That could be 6 months from now.
Saulsbrook Fork jogged last time at Flamboro after two solid 3rds there, and now he comes back to WEG for the very hot trainer Brealey. For the right price, he looks like the one. I would want about 7-2 or higher to play him, but on form and speed he appears to be as good or better than the two likely faves. Top call.
See R Chin Win has shown nothing to suggest she can compete with most of these. At best, she is racing for 4th or 5th money.
Race 2
1. Jenna Casimir
2. True Reflection
3. Eat Me Up
You don't see many races on WEG where every horse has a very legitimate shot to win, but this is one of those. So, there is a decent price to be had if you can figure it out. Trip is probably key, and therefore, tactical speed and driver matter a lot.
Eat Me Up couldn't get it done last time in this class with a front end mission. Parked early, it cost her at the end. She doesn't win often, but gets second and third a lot. She is one that usually needs to sit in and find room and a lane at the end. She is possible, if a lot of things go her way. I will look elsewhere.
D Gs Pesquero left hard last time and then had to wait for room up the rail when she had a full head of steam, only to be beaten by a horse on the outside with more momentum. She certainly fits with these and has a shot, but she isn't always consistent about pacing all the way to the wire.
Its No Secret scored last time at this level for Jody, the 3rd time she has done that. Tonight she gets Randy, or someone else if he books off. I will pass, although she is capable enough. She is the likely fave, and I don't see that as a decent price relative to the possibility she doesn't fire without Jody.
Oceanview Bindi moves up after failing on the front end last time. She was parked a long way to get that lead, so that has to be considered. As does her back class, when she has beaten much better than these in the past. However, right now, she is a longshot who wont get respect and will get hung or pressured if she goes for the lead with these. Pass.
Jenna Casimir just missed last time a step lower when she moved way too late, something she does quite a bit. However, Puddy seems to have her very good again, and in the past she has left better when that was the case. She is my lukewarm top call.
True Reflection, left hard for the lead last time and then yielded to Eat Me Up down the backside, only to gamble for racing room in the lane which never came. She can certainly bounce back for a price this week. J. Mac takes over as Drury goes back to his dads horse.
Putmeintogo,
who at times looks like a serious horse, other times fails miserably. The talent is there, but she is hard to like when she gets a short price, which is likely here. She did win parked the entire mile last time, and while that is admirable, she is also the type that bounces off that sort of effort.
Race 3
1. Up Front N Crazy
2. Order By Commander
3. Lets Leavum
A very interesting race. Fork. Yes? No? I am in the No camp. He gets a better post to work with this time, and likely takes no prisoners if he doesn't jump it off early, but I am not sold on him holding his form. I will play elsewhere, and take the price that will come with it.
Tag Up And Go comes in off two qualifiers. Don't see him as ready to tackle these. Maybe next time. One to watch as he was a pretty decent 3yo.
Fork got another tough trip last time and paid the price at the end. He has a long history of not holding his form and I see that again. Can he wire these on his best effort? Certainly. But at a likely 6-5, I will bet that he doesn't and play others who are just as talented but sharper and more consistent.
Lets Leavum raced okay last time to get 3rd, placed 2nd, but really wasn't doing enough off a perfect 2nd over trip where others battled hard in front of him and his cover won the race going away. He is always dangerous, but not always good. Longshot chance.
Up Front N Crazy got the worst of it last time. He left hard and sat on Fork's back, which appeared to be a genius move until that one let a dead horse on the outside go and retook, and that left him sitting behind a horse going the wrong way with the flow moving on the outside. I see his luck going the other way this time. Top call.
Moontan has had a lot of chances to get it done and has not, and lately has even flattened out a bit. I will pass on him.
Order By Commander reversed his form last time on the big drop and almost got it done wire to wire. Even though he moves back up, when sharp he handled these types pretty easily. Fillion is back aboard for Puddy, and he is certainly a top contender.
The Only One and Joseph Gerard both look to be horses that were sharp but have faded enough to be only bit players.
Race 4
1. Grin For Money
2. Drain Daddy
3. Monte Christo
Drain Daddy a top contender tonight, was on a front end mission last time and almost got it done with a lot better than most of these. He could easily have been my top pick and certainly one to use in the pick 4.
Twin B Impressive lots of chances with easier and he has failed. He meets some pretty classy and sharp enough droppers this time. I will pass on him until he goes back down and consider him then.
Calgary Seelster isn't getting it done at London and hasn't been competitive on this circuit even two steps lower. Pass on him.
Monte Christo raced pretty good in this class last time to get 2nd, however,Drury ditches his dads horse for Calgary Seelster, which is a curious move. He is still in the mix in my opinion, but he doesn't win much.
Grin For Money my top call, drops and gets a better post. Last week was a complete no try from the 10 hole with a pretty tough bunch relative to this group. Expect him to be out and rolling a lot earlier this time. Jackie Mo knows when the money is there to be had, and when it isn't. His back halves are more than enough to handle this bunch.
Smokin Bear shows nothing for weeks that suggests he is at all competitive on this circuit, this class or even lower. Complete pass.
Classic Gent is the wild card in this bunch. Is he still sharp enough to tackle the best ones in here. Maybe, but his last few suggest he is more of a bit player and he will be raced that way. I will wait on him to see if he shows he has more zip than he has showed for about a month. On his top effort, he could handle these.
Up The Credit, showed a small dose of his old back class last time, but still hasn't done enough and still carries a B track driver holding the lines. I will pass on him and wait for Jody to return, and hopefully get a price that night.
Broadies Song a Dover shipper with spotty form and off for 6 weeks will have to be seen to see where he fits on this circuit. Right now, it doesn't appear it is this class on this night.
Race 5
1. Speed Again
2. Stompin Tom Creek
3. Donau
Another mixed bag of class droppers, class risers, shippers and assorted horses with various levels of good and bad form. Easiest to just eliminate those who appear out of it and work by process of elimination.
Cams Tux, Midnite Romp and Czar Seelster have not shown they can compete for the top 3 spots with some of the better ones in here. Pass on all of them.
Donau is now 3 races off the claim, all at this level, and he has failed all 3 times, last time on the lead until mid stretch when he gave it up and missed the board. Pass on him until he drops into an 8 claimer,and even then Auciello has not shown me any improvement to suggest he justified a 25k claim or this classification. Anthony is off after a crazy front end bottom the field out mission, Drury is back on, but, he is the type that finds ways to lose with any driver.
Speed Again returns after a short layoff, and after they tried to race him off the pace, which didn't work. I expect to see the old Speed Again at this lowered level, right to the top and see if he can take them all they way. I suspect he can. He is good fresh and when he gets his own way. I doubt Donau would take him on. Big class difference there.
Astute won the Preferred 3 at Flamboro last time after several tries to get it done. That is basically an 8 to 10 claimer with the odd better one in there. These are much tougher. He would have to significantly step up his game to have any shot. I will watch and see if he can. My guess is we see him in a 10 claimer next time.
Stompin Tom Creek
is one not to discount right away with these. He had the dreaded 8 hole last time at Flamboro, and got parked a long way first over at London the time before that, with some okay types that would do in here. The start before that, he was wide a long way and just missed. Longshot chance for the win, and certainly in the tri mix.
Cool Rock drops below the level of his last win. He has been racing okay, but even his huge closing style has not got him anywhere lately. He always has a shot, but he isn't as sharp as he was and others look better in here. I will pass on him this time.
Wazzup Wazzup takes the monster class dive this time. However, he has tailed off badly lately, and maybe racing horses that were too tough for him has chewed him up now. He can't be discounted, but others in here will get the lead and without the lead, he isn't very dangerous in any class. I will take a pass on him tonight.
Race 6
1. Take A Pass
2. Sucker Money
3. If you must, play a longshot and hope the dart hits the bullseye
A terrible bunch in which just about every one of them can be discounted. I wont even bother. I will go get a hot dog and fries while others attempt to sort out this less than inspiring bunch.
Race 7
1. Jac Spade
2. Dapper Denzil
3. Rave On
First Impression seems like he would be a lot better off in a 10 claimer, and that at best he is racing for smaller shares with many of these. I will pass.
Kennairn Buckwheat very much like the 1 horse, appears over his head. He has beaten some very soft 8 claimers, but these are much tougher. Can't play him at this level, even at huge odds.
Rave On is another stepping way up in class, but he has the back class to do it and his form suggests he is in the mix. He raced like a bearcat the last two times. He is def in the mix for the top 3, if not the win outright. Puddy rarely moves them up unless he is sure they will do.
Genesee raced okay last time for a horse that was off a month and yanked out of the post parade dead lame in the meantime. I thought he still looked off, and I will avoid him. If right, he is in the mix. I don't think he is.
Jac Spade was a big disappointment last time. Never in it, way too far back and even a 27.1 last quarter didn't get him in range. I expect him to rebound this time, but I would want to see at least 4-1 to make him playable.
Real Rocker,
certainly raced tough last time, only getting beat by a trip horse. He was claimed out of that one, and I am still not sold that he can compete most nights with these as long as he is still locked on a line, which he still is. Pass.
Dapper Denzil
has been sharp for many weeks, getting it done a few times and bombing out the others. He is in the mix, but not always one who shows up.
Blended Whiskey draws the 10 hole on the slight drop but he has trouble winning and that wont help him. Minor cheque, maybe 3rd money, but not much chance of more. Inside, he would be a lot more dangerous.
Four Starrz Hold Em and Mr Big Head are two more who would be a lot better off in a lower claimer. Pass on both of them.
Race 8
1. Anderlecht
2. ThePaninsulahotel
3. Champagne Phil
Nothingbutmach returns to this circuit a much improved horse, but maybe a notch above where he needs to be, and faces some who have been racing okay a level higher than this. He would need them to fail to get in the win picture. Not tonight.
Stonebridge On Ice really stepped up last time. But these are even tougher. You can never discount an old class horse like him who can still do it on occasion, but I will go elsewhere this time. Others are simply still better than him at this point.
Nickle Bag a horse who will obviously take some money based on his recent lines, seems to me a horse who is gradually losing his sharpness. I will go elsewhere. Some of these are tough enough to outsprint him down the lane, and even his huge close has been a bit less impressive the last two times.
Anderlecht has been showing signs that he is near his old self and can handle a mediocre bunch like these. He almost got it done 2 starts back with much better, and now drop in with horses who look beatable. Top call.
The Paninsulahotel drops down a level, which for some isn't that big a deal, but for him, it is. He needs a certain type of trip with a certain type of horse to have a shot at the end. These are those types. Top 2 call, but maybe Anderlecht gets enough of a jump on him to hold him off.
Southwind Amazon has been off 5 months, while World Away takes a huge class hike. Pass on both of them with these.
Champagne Phil is the one who is on the fence with this bunch. His last was poor, and he does run very hot and cold. I wouldn't discount him for the win, but maybe he is tailing off a shade, just enough to get beat by the top 2.
Race 9
Mopey Corey or not Mopey Corey. That is really what this race boils down to. And if not Mopey Corey, then which one of these hard to like, easy to find holes bunch do you pick? I am voting not Mopey Corey tonight, based on the likely even money price, so I take a complete pass on this one. I will get a drink to wash down my hot dog and fries from my Race 6 intermission.
Race 10
1. Cougar Hall
2. In Commando
3. Top Gear
You don't often see a Preferred where all of the horses have not excelled at the Preferred before, but this is that race. So, I will basically look at it as one step below the Preferred, which is what it is.
Dali is of course the exception to my above comments. He has certainly beaten Preferred and better in his past. But, that was the old Dali. The new Dali is the 9 year old who was off 3 years breeding mares and was so-so in his first start back at basically the same level he races tonight. Luc didn't really let him go all out last time. Will he this time? I say No. He needs one more. Minor chance, but I pass.
Top Gear won this class in his second last, and raced tough in the Preferred with no shot at the winner and finished solid. He is in the mix, but also needs to have his own way, which he might not get with some of these.
Machal Jordan has shot up the class ladder, winning a few and just getting beat in his last. But more importantly, altering his style last time and making the lead mid race with a huge brush which he carried almost all the way. He certainly is the best he has ever been, and merits a serious shot. Mayotte? Well, he is a low percentage driver. You decide. I will pass, but of course, I know he can reach up and bite me.
In Commando did what he needed to do last time with these to get up in time. That might not work this time. A few better ones to slay in the lane. And he likely comes with a short price. Pass on the win, but certainly a tri factor.
Daddy Warbucks stays close enough to always be dangerous, and gets up the odd time, but usually it isn't enough for the win. He is certainly capable of getting 3rd, and better if everything goes his way, but others look better here.
J J Shark is super sharp, and moves up many classes to take these on. I wouldn't discount him, but his big finishing move might not be as potent with these. Longshot chance, but that is about all you can say.
Cougar Hall How can you not like him. He is 12 for 27 lifetime and just beat most of these while coming back off a month away. If he races to his form, he wins this race.
Lucky Terror is one month out of the box with a vet scratch in the middle of that from the outside. Following trip to pick up a minor share, and then we will see about him next week.
Race 11
1. Winning Dream
2. Ideal Race
3. Evenin of Pleasure
Wide open race with most having a shot if things go their way. In these types of races, I usually go with the better drivers and the class horses who show just enough form to suggest they could get it done if they stick to that.
Ideal Race reversed his form last time with these and almost got it done. He is certainly capable of finishing the job this time, and will be raced accordingly.
Winning Dream dropped last time into this class, left hard but then got a terrible shuffle and had no hope. He can certainly come right back. For the price, he is my top call.
Evenin of Pleasure also got the shuffle last time and by the time he was out, it was way too late to matter. Post 9 hurts him this time, but he is also in the mix. The top 2 have a better post, so I went with them.
1. If racetracks and the racing industry wanted to stop cheating, they could. They don't. It isn't that simple, but it is that simple. Everyone inside the game knows who the cheaters are. Some don't want to get involved, while others don't really care that the cheaters cheat, as long as nobody (the press and the public) finds out and makes a big deal about it. If not for the PETA video, most of you wouldn't even be reading this blog.
2. Why not just have a track veterinarian for every track that does a mandatory one week (random) unannounced inspection of every horse on the grounds? If you don't pass inspection or can't answer for why you are doing something unethical that will surely harm the long term interests of the horse, then the horse goes on a 6 month can't race list.
3. I often wonder when it became so acceptable that certain horses are not racing to win in a race and we all accept that as okay? It goes against the very principles of why we started to have races in the first place. Racing became too much business and not enough sport. Still is that.
4. You can't win every race, or even most races, but you can try to. If you aren't, you are cheating the bettors. No bettors, no industry.
5. People don't come to the track and bet on the horses mostly because it isn't worth the money they charge you for that. Nor the time involved. That is the number one issue racing must address and the one they never do. If everyone is going to stay home and bet and watch on the internet, might as well get rid of 90% of the tracks and have us all wager on the same track, no matter where that is. Is that what we want to happen?
6. Big whales betting is great for handle, but long term, it is the last nail in the coffin of racing if they keep counting on that. Once they get tired of racing, and move onto another form of gambling, who will be left to bet? The 2 dollar bettor is already sick and tired of hearing that these big whales control the pools and get a huge rebate on top of that..which is basically the whales taking a slice out of your wagering dollar on the front end. That is just total insanity.
7. If you want the industry to be drug free, you have to get rid of the drugs. No matter what most say, if others have access to them and you have to compete with them, and they are legal (lasix, bute, other bleeders and pain killers) then you are going to use them to stay competitive. Don't expect even the most honorable of owners to be martyrs because the industry can't get their shit together. It is easy to say that they should--when it isn't your money. Fair is fair. If you want them to stop, make everybody stop. Honorable owners are willing to follow the rules, but they aren't going to lead themselves into financial slaughter.
8. Here is something Jeff Gural did right. He made all trainers and owners sign a waiver that if they wanted to race at HIS establishment, a racetrack, they had to agree to terms, and if they violated those terms, they were out. That is the best way to avoid the appeals and stalling tactics so many trainers use to game the system, like taking their suspension when they have no horses racing for any money of note. Good for him.
9.No horse should ever run on medication. Medication is for or to prevent sickness. If you are sick, you don't go out and compete at the highest level of competition. If we give meds to horses, it should only be to treat them after a race or to make them better from an ailment. Instead of treating every bleeder in the racing world with lasix, we should stop breeding horses that need it. Right now, the opposite is the case. Instead of managing racehorses pain so they can compete, we should breed sounder, more durable horses. Like we used to before 2 year olds ran insane speeds on fragile legs to try and recoup ridiculous yearling prices and stud fees. Talk about putting the cart before the horse.
10. If you think a National Racing Commissioner would solve all or most of racings problems, you are as delusional as those that think Asmussen is going to get a long suspension for what he has done. Neither is going to happen. A commissioner is needed, but he or she cannot solve racings problems. Only provide a platform and leadership to do so. People in racing have to want real change and act like it matters enough to get it. Most don't. They are happy as long as the purses are high and they are getting their slice of the pie. When that happens, they turn a blind eye to any problem, until it starts affecting them.
Best Bet: Marquis De Sarah, Race 2
Longshot chances:
Falcor Bluestone
Up The Credit
A Nashty Business
Race 1
1. Loki Di Vie
2. Valorscross
3. Sixth Man
Chevious Cole is your likely post time favorite. He came with a huge rush last time and looked good doing it. When he was sharp in late fall, that was his preferred style. Most times though, he sits too long and doesn't get there. He is also prone to breaks or having to be held hard to avoid running. He is in the mix, but probably overbet. In a win 4 ticket I would use him, but not for the win in this race.
Devries Hanover gets Fillion, which normally wouldn't be an issue. Jamieson has driven him for the last few starts, but he is away. This horse is a tough drive and not knowing him is an issue. He is very prone to acting bad behind the gate and running in the race as well. Last time he advanced, but was under a hold and not fully driven. Likely another short price, and I would avoid him, although he is capable if he behaves and finds good flow early.
See R Chin Win broke last time after she made the lead and let another horse go. She was already gapping when that happened, Phil pulled the plugs and got no response, then she was very rough behind and looked sore before she went into a full run. I would not use her at all. She is marginal with these types to begin with.
Power Move comes off a vet scratch sick which was preceded by a very poor finish 9 days before and a long layoff before that. He is also an infrequent winner who tends to hang in the lane. Can't see him tonight.
Valorscross was parked the mile last time, went a huge trip and got up late to take it. His second start off the layoff. He tried Gold types last year and did well enough. Obviously he is being pointed in that direction again. He is possible, but I would beware of a bounce of that hard effort. While Eddie Green is a capable driver, he isn't a WEG guy and wont get the favors that come along with that. That has to be considered. Hence, why he got parked the mile last time.
Our Mojo is 0 for 39 the last two years and coming off a no try effort from the 10 hole. He has had a lot of chances and failed just about every time. Can he get the show spot. Probably, but only if others fail, which is also possible.
Sixth Man gets Renaud again, who seems very capable and good with young trotters. He also brings in his fair share of longshots. I could see him getting there if the trip worked out.
He is 2nd off the layoff and was in with a much tougher bunch than these last time, getting a solid 4th, while trotting in 1:58.
Loki De Vie is hard to like on his current form and record, but he does have ability. He seems to leave enough to get stung every time. In this field though, there are not many strong leavers. If he could get a 2 hole trip (which is possible) he is capable enough of beating this bunch, which he did 6 lines down the page. He is my top call, by process of elimination.
Race 2
1. Marquis De Sarah
2. Barockey
3. Waasmula
Addison Bay is one tough mare, who can take tons of air and still finish. But, she is wearing down a bit. Even when she was dominating a month ago, she looked sore and was kept out and rolling. Last time she looked even worse as the failed chalk. I would play away from her this time, with the likely short price she is going to bring again. She finished 3rd last time, but didn't look good doing it.
Wassmula was super sharp last time, as she cleared and just kept going, easily handling this bunch. That is two very sharp efforts in her last 3. However, she loses that good form as fast as she gets it. If she isn't the fave, she will be 2nd choice, and you have to get value on her to play her. I don't see that this time. Short field helps her, as at times she doesn't like to work for it and is better stalking on a helmet and coming late.
St. Lads Peeper put two very good efforts together to gain 2nd to Addison Bay when she appeared untouchable, but last time looked to be losing her form sharply. She isn't the type that handles these when she is not at her best. I would avoid her this time and wait for a return to form or a drop. Many are sharp in this class right now, and she needs a weaker bunch when she is at this level.
Barockey gets Chris C. and you never know what he will do. Will he send her and try to sit the 2 hole, take her back like Billy D last time or send her down the road like Anthony used to? She is always dangerous, because on her best day she is as good as any of these. But, like Waasmula, when she is bad, she is terrible. The price will likely be good this time, so, beware of her in a field with many going in the wrong direction form wise. She raced pretty good to get 5th last time, with a 26.3 final quarter.
Laneside Lexus was sharp for about a month and won a few times, but even at this level she was marginal. Last time she dove down, had a pocket trip on the lively leader's back and blew by her in the lane. She wont get that here. Horses like Barockey, Waasmula and Marquis De Sarah want the same trip and are better than her. Can't see her this time with this tougher bunch.
So that leaves Marquis De Sarah, who had very sharp form around the New Years and held it for a few weeks. She won her second last a step below this, then got hung leaving from the 7 hole in the first quarter last time to make the lead and was still a very solid 2nd to the sharp Waasmula. With the rail and the likelihood of a backstretch retake, I can see her going all the way this time.
She has never really lost her form, just ran into Addison Bay when she was unbeatable. Unlike others in here, she comes to play every week and is always in the hunt. Lets not forget that Lucky Luc was once one of the top drivers in the world and on WEG, and he didn't forget how to outdrive guys when he knows he has the power. Like he does this time.
Race 3
1. Magic Will Work
2. Falcor Bluestone
3. Northern Spark
This is a grab bag of non performers, many with horrible form and low winning percentages. Even the ones that are racing "okay" don't inspire any confidence. If you must play this race, look for a price that justifies the lack of confidence you get in any of these.
Order By Commander was very good for about 6 weeks, but then went off form sharply and has deteriorated quickly. I can't see any reversal here. I would not play him under any circumstances.
Northern Spark was already tailing off when Johnson claimed him 6 starts ago and the Johnson magic has done nothing to reverse that trend. Can he pop up any time and reverse that? Yes, but when? In this bag of rats, I would consider him, but only if I saw 8 to 1 or higher. They have tried various styles with him and none have worked. He just simply isn't good right now.
Everything I have said about the two above applies to Frill Seeker, but he wasn't even good for long. Two starts, then he went back to his horrible ways. Can't see that changing from this post.
Wine Photo gets a barn change, but unless that guy is practicing voodoo, I can't see how this horse who has been distanced in his last 3 has any shot.
Falcor Bluestone has been off 6 weeks. However, B. Baillargeon has a habit of doing that with trotters and then they come back live. If anyone comes out of the pack and surprises this bunch, it could be him from the 3 hole. He has shown good gate speed in the past when he is good. Beware.
Magic Will Work seems the only one here with any form and some class to back it up. She won many in a row in the fall when she was sharp, beating much better than she faces tonight. The rail will help, just like the 10 hole hurt last time. My top call with a weak bunch. I expect to see Anthony out and rolling before the half and be his usual aggressive self with her. If she doesn't get stung, she can get it done.
Open All Doors looks okay enough on paper, but does little to inspire any confidence when chances present themselves.
Race 4
1. World Away
2. Donau
3. J Ds Caleb Man
Smokin Bear got whipped last time at London by Amazon Art and Calgary Seelster, two horses that wont do in this class on this curcuit. He tried to cut the mile the time before and packed it in sharply then too. No shot.
Pouvoir Duharas finally won at the bottom last time when Emerald Lexus jumped it off and the others with pace were trapped or arriving too late. Now he meets others who he can't currently handle. Not tonight for him.
Kindly Poet looked terrible last time, almost running most of the way. Even for him, he looked worse than normal. Chris C books off him for World Away. Nuff said.
Cams Tux moved up to this level last time after 4 decent efforts at the lower level without winning, which he rarely does. He looked bumpy gaited and lame last time. Avoid until he drops back, and get a price then as well.
Roethblissberger and Midnite Romp both have bad posts and don't usually compete well with these types even from good posts. Have to see more before they can be played anywhere but the bottom level.
Up The Credit has had two back now and not looked good in either. He has the back class to whip these, but doesn't show it anymore. Beware, but can't see him tonight with Gois and others who are sharper. Keep an eye on him, he is likely to pop one of these days.
J Ds Caleb Man has pretty good form, but he moves up and has never shown he is a win threat with these. He can make the tri though, under the right circumstances. His tactical late speed helps him with this bunch.
Donau is a horse you hate to play. He finds ways to lose.
He got beat by DJ Lance, a horse who isn't even an 8 claimer, when he had him clearly beat in the lane. Then, he was claimed for 25k by Auciello, who sees something in him most of us don't. However, some of these are just as bad and he raced better than most of them last time. A short price is likely coming, so I wouldn't play him because of that, but he is in the mix. Post 8 definitely hurts him, as he will have to work hard for it, something he doesn't like to do. He probably goes off less than 2-1, which is something I see as a major overlay. Who beats him though?
Which leaves World Away, my top pick. He raced tough last time only to get boxed in until late. He has the back class, early speed and handiness to best this bunch, as long as he has a clear lane turning for him. He has a tendency to stay in too long. Sometimes that pays off, other times not. I would want to see at least 5-2, and 3-1 would be better. The 8-1 morning line would be a gift if you could get it. You wont.
Race 5
1. Thor Seelster
2. Dreamfair Bogart
3. Ozzy Ozzy
Myagi Hanover, Doctor Lily and Twin B Cruiser show no evidence they can go with these currently, even on a top effort.
Ozzy Ozzy has been away since December, when he was showing signs of trouble by either running or attempting to run. Maybe the time off has helped, but he likely needs one. He does have talent, and when good, he could easily handle this bunch. He is a half brother to Mr. Herbie, and that does mean something. He is possible off the shelf. Hayter is good at having them ready.
Pretty Boy was "good" Pretty Boy last time. You never know which one will show up. Like the one above, he is dangerous, but not reliable. I can see a short price this time, so I will avoid him. If playing the win 4, I would use him. He seems to make breaks for no reason, then comes right back the next week and is good. He might turn out to be a nice older trotter. That doesn't mean anything tonight though.
Tyson Bambino raced super last time, and had been knocking for a few weeks. As mentioned earlier, Renaud is good with trotters. Can he double up? Maybe. But I would say he needs one to get used to these. He went 1:56.4 last time, a new record for him. He might have lost some zip doing that.
Muscle On Broadway bombed out last week after a decent winning effort against a very soft bunch the time before. Before that, he had shown signs of soreness, and that seems to be an issue for him. I see a short price this time and I would avoid him. Even in the Win 4. He runs hot and cold and I see frigid times ahead for him.
Dreamfair Bogart raced pretty sharp last time from the 9 hole, parking a long way to make the top and then lasting until deep stretch. He doesn't always show up, but he is more consistent than most in here and has the speed. He is in the mix, but not my top choice.
Thor Seelster comes in off the claim, where he bagged two in a row in London. Don't be fooled by the times. His last mile was at least a 1:57 here and that would likely get it done with these. He has more than he has shown. He is a stalker and a strong finisher, and the longer stretch likely helps him here. He weaved through heavy traffic to win the 2nd last start and then went a long way outside last time to blow by the favorite in the lane. Top call, and a likely decent price.
Race 6
1. Dali
2. Alexie Matoosie
3. Daddy Warbucks
An interesting and contentious bunch. Probably the toughest to sort out of the night.
Anderlecht opened up five on them last time but gave it up at the tote board. At this age, he has trouble lasting with the better ones. Can't see him tonight, but he is still capable.
Machal Jordan has two in a row, 3 of last 4 with Mayotte and moves up. I like the horse, but no thanks. Odds and class are stacked against him tonight.
Cougar Hall raced super, back half in 55 to get second to a tough In Commando last time. However, he can't dominate and bully these types like he did moving up the ladder. He is possible, but others look better than him right now. One class lower and he would be a lot tougher.
ThePaninsulaHotel is very good one class down, but needs a perfect trip and some racing luck in the lane with these. I will go against him tonight, but he is a triactor factor for sure.
Wazzup Wazzup has raced poorly 4 weeks in a row. His form is going the wrong way, and he doesn't get to braven up with some of these. Take a pass on him tonight. Watching for a return to form when he goes lower soon.
Casimir Jitterbug certainly has the back class to handle these. He jogged last time, but Monte Christo is a long way from Dali and Modern Legend, and others who have pretty good form and decent enough class. Pass on him tonight, but he is dangerous. Post 9 really hurts him. He is better near the front and then sitting a trip. Not going to get that tonight.
Modern Legend drops out of the Preferred tonight and avoids Apprentice Hanover. That makes him dangerous. But, he hasn't done much on his own to suggest he is the top call here. Tri factor though. He isn't the same horse currently that he was the last couple of years. He may have to go lower to get it done.
Daddy Warbucks has shot up the ladder for Brealey in only 6 starts. Bottom level into the Preffered, where he was okay but overmatched. With the right trip, which he needs, he can be there. Phil seems to get along good with him, and knows you can't use him much until the tote board. That screams out 3rd or 4th.
Alexie Matoosie got nailed on the line last time by Machal Jordan. He hasn't lost that habit of coming up just short that he had when he used to race here. Speed is there. Class is there. If Dali falters he is the likely one to get it done, but the price will be short and I don't see enough value there.
Which leaves Dali, who when in form would be 1-9 with these. He has been off 3 years breeding mares, but appears to come back super sharp and Waxman is the type to have him ready to wire them. Luc knows him well, and I would hope to get 2-1 or higher. Top call and if he takes 2 seconds off the second qualifier, he gets it done.
Race 7
1. Jenna Casimir
2. Dreamfair Eclipse
3. Back Yard Baby
No standouts in this bunch. Hard to see a play that makes sense.
Jenna Casimir and Dreamfair Eclipse are the only two that make any sense, and show enough, but both also have their weaknesses. 6 weeks ago, Jenna Casimir dominates these. Can she regain that form? Maybe. She gets top call only because she is still racing okay and has a post and driver that suit her out and going style. She might just outlast them.
Dreamfair Eclipse gets there every now and then, and the revolving driver wheel has landed on Randy. Sometimes he has good nights, sometimes not. Last night he was good. Last weekend he was colder than a Foreigner song. Who knows? Would want 5-1 to play her, and I don't see that coming tonight.
The rest don't show me anything to recommend them, although one of them is likely the winner. Take a flyer if you like something.
Back Yard Baby has been there before, and gotten beat lately by horses that moved up and did well. She has a minor shot for a big price.
Race 8
1. Classic Gent
2. J J Shark
3. Grin For Money
Joshua My Boy drops a notch, but has been going the wrong way on the form cycle for 3 weeks now. When he is bad, he is very bad. Would have to see a reversal to play him. Not tonight for me.
Brocks Fortune moves up again, off two starts where he didn't get it done. Can't see him being in the mix with these. Likely a claimer is in his future.
Stonebridge on Ice looks to be over his head with this group at this late stage in his long, successful career. Only worth playing at the bottom level, and even then, he needs a perfect trip.
Nickle Bag gets Chris and drops a level off pretty good form. However, he wasn't as good last time as he was hanging in the lane, while he was sharp and moving forward the previous starts. I would stay away from him and the likely short price he brings tonight.
Sing For Me George has done very little in his two starts back to show he can compete with these. He was on his hands and knees to beat Donau last time. Nuff said.
Cool Rock, a one trick pony who only takes way back and tries one big move from the final turn home is tough to play when some of these keep going. He is possible, but I don't like him tonight off the likely race/pace scenario.
Drain Daddy packed it in last time and Jack ditches him for Kopas's horse. Post really hurts him. Watch him for next time or for a drop in class. Not tonight.
Grin For Money takes a sharp drop to where he has won before, but post 10 really hurts him. He can get there, but a lot would have to go right. With his consistent back half speed he is always dangerous.
J J Shark was second in this class two starts back and is in the mix. But as a horse who comes late, like many in here, he is likely to have lots of traffic issues.
Which leaves Classic Gent, my top pick, a lukewarm one at that. He has good gate speed and tonight might be the night to use it and then sit a 2 hole trip. That kind of tactic can get him there at a price. As long as he doesn't try and go coast to coast. Too many closers in here to pull that off. The slight drop in class and decent post help his chances. Not many in here would be strong enough to park him, so he can leave with confidence.
Race 9
1. Lets Leavum
2. Up Front N Crazy
3. Joseph Gerard
No standout here. Mixed bag of horses who win when they are good and lose a lot when they aren't.
Lets Leavum beat these when last in with them. He can get it done. CAN. Not will. He is no cinch. Top call by default.
Up Front N Crazy leaves enough to be in the mix and has done well for Perriera since the claim. Likely short price though. He might just outlast/outstagger them. Might.
Joseph Gerard is a very effective closer if the cover keeps him close enough to make the most of that. He could get it done, if the trip works out.
Fork parked all the way past the half last time and then just kept going. He doesn't hold his form at all as a rule. Avoid.
A Nashty Business shows flashes of being good enough with these, and some of the drives have been suspect. If luck were to go his way, and he falls into a good trip and good flow, he could pay a big price. Could.
Some of the others have a shot, but all of them find ways to lose or are in tougher than normal. Take a shot if you like one of them. Hard to recommend any of them though.
Race 10
1. Jac Spade
2. Mister Icon
3. Dapper Denzil
Genesee returns from a vet scratch lame in the post parade when it was obvious he was hurting bad. He had showed signs of that for a few weeks and now he is fire-saled for 15. Hard to know what to expect from him. Watch him parade and make your call. I will avoid him, especially now that he is 4 weeks out of the box.
First Impression moves up and is hard to like with these better ones. The way he races, he can always hit the ticket, but he does little to suggest he can beat these types. I will pass on him until he is back in for 8k.
Real Rocker raced good to take down the sharp Mr. Big Head last time, but he has been locked on a line for weeks (maybe longer) and he wont get away with that tactic with this bunch. He would have to be better, much better, and I haven't seen any evidence of that.
Hoboken Hanover raced pretty good to get 4th with better last time, but he is never consistent or to be counted on. Many times he is off stride before the gate or trying to be. Speed is there, but these put more pressure on him. Pass.
Big Bay Point got scooped up on the 12k fire sale and he still didn't get it done that night. Showed nothing with these last time for 20k. Have to see some improvement before he is even considered viable again. He does have big back class and Cirasoula is the type that fixes these up, so beware of him if you are looking for a flyer, price horse. Not for me though. He has not impressed me yet. He looks chewed up and spent.
Mister Icon is the hot form horse. Jogged twice for 8k, getting claimed the second time and moves up sharply for Riley, who seems to have some magic potion since Christmas. Beware and he has a legit shot. Many of these are either former or recent 8k horses, so he isn't giving up much on class with them.
Dapper Denzil has been pretty good for months, and Paul McLean has taken him back several times and improved him. He did look a bit sore coming to the wire last time, but Paul is the type that knows how to fix up and keep them good. I wouldn't play him on top for a short price, but he wouldn't shock me if he gets it done.
Jac Spade was tons the best last time, and Campbell knows him well. Us older guys remember when Campbell was one of the top guys on the circuit, and he could keep horses like this good for a long time. Right now, he has a pretty big edge on these. And he is travelling better than ever, something I would not have said 3 months ago. He looks for 3 straight here, and I think he can get it. Not a cinch, but...Top call.
Race 11
1. Evenin of Pleasure
2. Winning Dream
3. Burning Shore
4. Ideal Race
5. Twin B Legend
6. Sunny Beach Day
Better Get Ready gets a trainer change from J. Nowelselsky to Riley. I can't see him one upping Jeff, who is a very sharp guy. Likely takes lots of money because of it, which means others present much better value.
Curious Phoenix shows nothing to suggest he makes the top 5, let alone win. Major pass on him.
Emerald Lexus is a horse I never play. He always looks one step away from running and he does that a lot, as he did last time when he was actually going to win. He is always dangerous, but rarely good enough to back that up. I will pass on him again.
Twin B Legend is the type that could step up and win this race. He weaved through traffic to get up for 2nd on Monday night, and moves back up, but really, it isn't a move up. He could easily light up the toteboard. Beware of him, but everything would have to go his way. Others seem a shade better than him right now.
Ideal Race drops again, and has the back class to crush these, but has shown no zip for two months. He is in the mix, if he shows up and is driven aggressively. He has had 3 bad posts in a row and draws well enough this time to attempt a retake down the backside. Can he keep going if he tries that? Can, if he is good. Is he? Hard to say. Gillis horses reverse form very quickly. Don't forget that. I don't.
Burning Shore showed a lot of talent and promise last year as a 3yo, but never panned out. He seems to be coming around, and his recent form says he will be there at the wire. I wouldn't discount him, but he seems a tad camera shy. If my top pick gives it up (which he does sometimes) he is the likely one to pick up the pieces.
Four Starzz Hold Em has taken some nice steps forward and raced good, but these are much tougher. He is likely better off back in an 8 claimer. He is a Hi 5 factor, but don't see him on the triactor ticket. Doesn't look like he can beat 1:54 anymore, and many of these still can.
Sunny Beach Day comes very late, and that seems like all he can do, so he would need a hot pace to race into. Don't see that this time. Another who is a legit bit player, but not a top 2 candidate.
Which leaves Evenin of Pleasure, who drops off good form and was another who looked like a serious horse at 2 and 3 but didn't pan out. Certainly, he can win this. Sylvain helps his cause. 3rd start off the layoff and he likely gets it done. But, Winning Dream has beaten better and is also one to contend with. He seems to go down the road, sometimes lasting, other times packing it in. Which one shows up tonight? He takes a huge drop tonight.
Between the two of them, I see it as a pick em. I went with Fillion. Better winning percentage.
The following is a (interpreted) statement given by Steve Asmussen in the fantasy world that he apparently lives in.
"Today, with great sadness, I have relieved Scott Blasi of his duties as my assistant trainer after 18 years of service. I have to say that I am in total shock that he treated my owners fine animals this way, and that his foul language and repulsive attitude were so upsetting to many (including me) who saw that on the videotape now circulating.
I have never seen any such behavior from him before, nor did I have any knowledge (as head trainer) that he was attempting to run a former Kentucky Derby second place finisher (Nehru) with horrific feet until he had to be put down. Nor did I have any knowledge that he was giving Thyroxine to my whole stable to make them feel better and run although they are lame, nor did I know he was using shock treatments to try and fool the state veterinarians.
I in no way condoned any of these actions and actually had no knowledge they were going on. It is not standard practice to do any of the things he was doing in that video. He was acting on his own account and was not instructed in any way by me to do these things.
I have and always will have the best interests of the horses in my care and the owners who supply me with these horses."
Said Steve Asmussen to nobody who will ever believe his total load of crap.
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/people/winchells-top-3-year-olds-tapiture-untapable-to-stay-with-asmussen/
When reached for comment, Scott Blasi was very succint.
"Holy Batcrap Batman."
