Race 2
Will the favorite be as good in the new barn and will anyone challenge him if he makes the lead? That is the story for this race. Not a very deep field, which means likely not many willing to sacrifice.
WARRAWEE XALT goes off the claim and that could be an issue here. He is a tricky horse, although he has come a fair ways in that respect since he was a colt. He doesn't make a lot of breaks in stride now, but he is capable of that. McNair sticks and that is a plus. He should know him well by now. He has become very much a front end type and has won 2 of his last 3 at this level and was 2nd in the other. Hence, why he was claimed and why he will likely be staying only this start in the new barn. If challenged, he can be picked off in the lane, as he was last time. The question is will he be as good in the new barn and will someone go after him?
NORTHERN CHARLOTTE has recently moved up to this level now that her sire stake career is over. She has been a bit player, but is adapting. She draws the rail again, and she generally starts slow from that spot, which makes it tougher for her to be close enough to challenge for the win. Others are capable of 53, and I'm not sure she is yet.
ANCIENT WALL came to this track as a big ticket yearling, now 4yo bust. He immediately took to the easy conditions, winning two in a row as he blew through nw2 to this level. Since then there have been problems. He broke last time as a longshot, then was scratched sick and basically has not raced an entire mile in 6 weeks. He is hard to like when he needs about 2 seconds to beat these even if he is right and fit. Pass for now.
DEVILS ARCH picks up JMac and seems like he is finally getting his act together on a more consistent basis as he works his way up the ladder now to see how far he can go. He closed very well last time and has a shot here if someone else goes after the chalk and softens him up. He could be a value play. At this level, he seems to have one move and it has to be times. He cant blast out and outspeed them.
MATCH MEIF YOU CAN a 3yo filly taking on aged horses and some mares. She is 2 for 2 since moving to Gillis and adding lasix. And dominant at that. She could easily blast and sit on the chalks back. These are generally much tougher and will be a test for her.
STORMONT DIVIDE always makes a horrible post parade appearance with his racky and ugly gait, but he goes with it most times and only makes the odd break. However, he is forced to move up sharply here and needs more overall speed. I haven't seen that yet. I will pass and watch.
ITSTIMETOGOHOME blasted off from the 10 hole last time but gradually began to pack it in and was well up the track. To me, he doesn't look to be up to the challenge of this level and will be more viable when he drops some money and gets in with cheap non winner types.
BUSTING WITH PRIDE is a bit of a slow starter and that contributes to his winless record this year. He finishes well but doesn't do enough to get by the winner, hence his 8 for 15 record on the board this year. He is the type that would benefit here if someone went after the favorite and made him work hard before the top of the stretch.
Race 6
If the fave comes to play, they are all racing for 2nd. She looks tough but does sit back and that means traffic and possibly breakers to avoid, as she had to last time.
P L RAINBOW DASH has gradually come on late in the season to be a top shelf OSS type. She was 2nd in a gold and then 3rd in the final for big money. Off that, last time, she had the trailer in a big field, yet just sat back and McClure measured them the entire way to just sail by without much effort, as she did in the first leg. If she is as is, she looks like a 1-5 cinch.
RADICAL LEGACY won 5 in a row to start her career going into her last but met the one above, who had done a lot more speed and class wise. She finished 3rd but was placed back for interference. If the chalk happens to blow up, she looks like she has an edge on the balance and you likely get 9-2 or maybe a bit higher. She is a 2yo filly though, so she must be seen as week to week, especially this time of year, they get sore without much warning.
TEA LAKE is a 12 time maiden facing proven high end stakes fillies. She will pick up Roy for the final, but I don't see her as competitive against the top 2, unless of course, they both jump it off. In that scenario, she is as good as the balance, but not much better, and she will bring a big price if you like the chances of that happening. I would think she is hoping for 3rd or 4th money.
ABIKADABRA is the type in a race like this that can pop up and grab 2nd money. She trots steady, rarely makes a break and that can be valuable in a race like this. She doesn't show any ability to take both the top 2 down if they stay at it. Bit player on paper, but she has a shot if things go wrong. She can capitalize. J Mac is good with this type.
ROYAL CANDICE looks like an outright toss in this one, as she belongs in a maiden race, in which she would be no cinch. Her double digit odds and performance in the previous two legs reflect that.
MUSCONE was wiped out down the backside last time and had no shot but raced well to be 2nd in the first leg and that is an indication of where she fits on the pecking order of these. She is about 3rd to 5th best if the two faves perform. If not, then she is a win candidate. I would think she would like to be near the top to avoid that problem this time. So far, she has not showed any leaving ability, but that doesn't mean she cant.
ZIPPY ZIPPORAH picks up Young as JJ is away. She has very good gate speed and I would expect her to deploy that here. She was a bit player in the Gold but did compete and show some ability, more suited to these types. If she gets out near the top and others make mistakes, she could luck into a trip that nabs first or second.
SHETROTSALOT has 10 starts and has not made the top 2 yet. That puts her behind many of these. She is a decent leaver and Trevor might decide to take a shot and use that to pick up a big piece. Big longshot but not an outright toss.
KARENS DREAM is a very easy toss from the 9 hole on her form alone. She has many here who beat her even if others fail.
Race 8
Will Ann behave? Can she take a tough parked out or challenged front end trip and finish it out? Is she experienced enough to rely on or does she alternate good and bad efforts at this stage? Hard to say, but she hasn't been reliable yet.
ANN has very high end talent but the issues that sometimes come with that. She is very green, and also a bit of a headcase. She sometimes blows the turns, and even when she doesn't, isn't always easy to rate. She might be getting better at all that with more racing.
She seems much better than all of these on talent, but the 9 hole evens that out a touch. If she blasts off, she will likely have a few challenge her. I'd be inclined to take a shot against her if they overbet her and create value elsewhere. She wired them last time, but got a very reasonable 2nd q to achieve that. That isn't likely to be on the table here. When she has been parked or made to work for it, she has given it up.
ONE MORE BET has taken down two legs in this series, easily. She was very impressive in the first leg and then just coasted unchallenged last time to the easy win. However, both times she ran in horrible, almost going inside pylons although all alone. That is a concern. She likely tries to trip out here and brush late on the chalk if she insists on the lead. I'm inclined to go against her but use her as a cover against the chalk because of the value she might bring against that rival if they hammer her.
SCRIVENER HANOVER shows a maiden win in at Rideau and has started 9 times. She was a cheap yearling who has become a solid racehorse and done well, but she looks overmatched against the top end of this bunch. I cant see her doing any better than she has in the legs of this series, which is 4th money.
DEFININGTHE MOMENT is an 8 time maiden facing proven winners, who she hasn't really made a dent in against in the legs of this series. She has potential going forward, but I don't see her as any threat tonight. Pass and watch. She will be heading back to maidens at some point, and she might be value then if she hooks a bearcat.
WICKED LEADER has had a long season and seems to have lost her edge and form as she entered this series. She was taken down late as the fave in leg 1, then just went with the pack in leg 2. She is capable enough if she turns that around, and the McWicked's seem very variable in what you get from them week to week. She has some value as a cover horse on that small chance. She has a good post and can do some damage if she can beat one of the faves to the 2 hole and capitalize up the rail late. Trevor has been known to do that in big races on big priced horses.
QUIET ASSURANCES has stepped up her game on the move to the big track in this series. If she continues to improve, she is a good longhshot play here. She closes fast late and that might be valuable in this one. She could be the now horse before anybody figures that out.
TAMARA HANOVER was 2nd best to the easy winner last time, and while she pulled pocket on the turn, she went nowhere and had to work hard to hold 2nd money. This is a deep bunch. I cant see her against the best of this bunch. Pass.
PEELER has a maiden win to show for 13 tries. She loses Filion to one of the faves. She has a shot to make the bottom of the ticket, but looks overmatched for the win. Pass. She might be okay in nw2 when she goes back there.
ALWAYS A CATCH looks to be about 2 months behind some of the better ones in here and drawing bad, I would think her connections would be happy with a small chunk. She is still a maiden facing a Gold Winner and others close to that level. Pass.
Race 9
No clear favorite here, but a couple who are logical co favorites. Both beatable and there are a few that can take them down. Good race to go deep in the exotics and I'd be 4 deep with any of those 4 possible.
PRETTY SPECIAL is done with the Sire Stakes and now grinds her way up the ladder to see where she fits. She seems pretty solid and consistent at this stage. Float out midpack, find decent cover, swing wide on the last turn and then go what she can to sail by most times. Last time, she was 2nd doing that after reeling off 3 straight. She is beatable but viable.
BELLA CAVALLA returned from Yonkers last time, picked up Henry and changed tactics, leaving out hard and then securing a good trip, but she had no room to go forward. She is more likely to pick up cover and leave mid pack this time, which is a trip she knows well and does well with. She can drift late, but she goes forward doing it. Big shot.
CRYSTAL BALLER jumped it off last time while near the back of the pack. Other than that, he has been on the fringes with these for a few starts, and actually draws a lot better than he has in his last 6. For that reason, and since the faves are okay but no bearcats, he has a decent shot. Trevor sticks with Bella, so McClure takes over and that is not an issue. If he can stay trotting and beat a few away, he has a shot to trip out at a fair price.
BELVEDERE BRONX had been leaving in most starts and fading late, so he was taken back last time and raced okay. Still needs to do more, but with a better post here, in a drivers race, if he can leave fast and sit most of the rest of the way, at the mercy of trip luck, he has an upset shot to take them all down at a decent price.
KEVIN ANTHONY didn't have Phil last time and that was an issue as he knows him well and has driven him in most of his starts. He ran and was well out of it the rest of the way. Otherwise, he takes a tag here to face these, but they aren't any easier than the ones he has been facing and I would think playing him will wait until he drops some money and moves down the ladder. These look beyond his reach.
FRENCHY HANOVER looks like a good long term prospect as she ages, but for now, she is in very tough with this bunch when she is a good nw2 type, but not dominant yet there either. She has won her way out of that class but is caught in between that class and this one when many of these have multiple wins and come in on the claiming tag angle. Cant see her here.
LOOKSLIKAGOODFELLA has shown flashes of high ability at times, but as he races on and ages, he needs to do more. To date, he hasn't. He might do well with a change of scenery, but for now, and tonight, he doesn't figure with these. He will need to toughen up to compete at this level, and that was a knock on his sire at times as well. Pass.
ZIP ME UP is 2 for 36 on his career, and one of those wins was a two, the other this year at Georgian. He seems like a solid 56 trotter, and while that's fine, that wont play with these. He did well in the pop up series to get three 2nd place finishes, but he was a big longshot in all of those and this is a major step up for him along with the far outside post of this group. Not tonight for me.
Race 10
Tough race. A few who have high upside who dont always perform. Odds will determine value and post parade is key.
AMIGO VOLO has made more than 2 million in his career, has duked it out with the best, and still shows up every week. He has been right there in his last 4, but met the buzzsaw that is Logan Park, and then was 2nd best to a couple with stakes wins on their cards. He is the likely lukewarm fave here, and possibly he could bring 5-2. His consistency and class play well here without the usual top suspects in the field.
PEMBERTON on his best day might be the best of this bunch. He has had serious injury issues over his entire career, and they just flare up from time to time. When he can overcome them, he is very tough to fend off in the stretch, and that was the case last time as he mowed them all down. I suspect he is the chalk here, and I will go against him because of how rarely puts 2 in a row together anymore in the high end class like this
ONEY HALL seems to be rounding into form, and he performs better in the winter months for some reason. When he is good, he is tough to handle. He is showing signs of that lately. He appears to be the value here.
FLEURIE is razor sharp now since she moved to Moreau, and will be tested against these, who are a much different proposition than what she has faced and beat her last two. She has longshot upside if that plays out, but I wouldn't take less than 5-1 on her and really she should bring more than that. McNair picks against her, and that is significant.
TRUFFLES TOO frequently wins his way out of the lower condition to this and then struggles mightily with these. That was the case last time. He is capable of picking up a piece if one runs, another gets a bad trip, things like that. He doesn't look viable for the win slot.
WHITE TIGER very similar to Truffles Too, but White Tiger is a shade more capable of making the ticket, while a very rare threat for the win at this level with serious Grand Circuit types in it.
WARRAWEE XENIA races at the very highest level there is, yet strangely, she has not won a race this year, even when she has faced softer than these. She is tricky to keep trotting and has soundness issues, but McClure knows her and babies her to some extent. On her best day, when fit, healthy and sound, she could blow by all of these. She is the type you have to cover with because she can beat you on any given day.
PATRIARCH HANOVER earns almost 200k a year, but at this level, when the good ones are still around, he has trouble sealing the deal. I don't see him doing much with the best of these. Perhaps when this class gets thinner.
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