WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 12, 2016

Tonight we have the irresistible force meets immovable object in play. Garnet is of the opinion he can't win with Vanderkamp. He takes him on top, he loses. He leaves him off, he beats him. He has taken Free Willy Hanover on top in Race 2, I am listing him as a play against. What we have in play here is a possible GF for Garnet, and a possible antidote to that in my play against. Something has got to give this time. If logic plays out, he will be scratched before post time.


To summarize, I view these as the likely favorites, and I have separated them by play against or play, or, not play against but not plays either.

PLAY AGAINST

RACE 2     Free Willy Hanover

RACE 4  York Seelster

RACE 5  Catch the Dream 
RACE 6   Jenkins Creek 

PLAY

RACE 3  Windsun Revenge 

include but add others

RACE 1  Late Night
RACE 7  A Cool Card
RACE 8   Dirty Secret
RACE 9   Resistance Futile

My best exotic play, based on the way the races look to me is this: 

pick 3 Race 5

5)    3,4,5,6
6)    4,5,6,7,8
7)    1,3,5,7

80 combos. 
20c cost is $16

I might add the 9 in race 6 if I think he is worth doing that. Right now, I am rolling the dice against him. Its only a couple of bucks more for 20c. 

Its a big number to play for a pick 3, but its a high return ticket if it comes in. I am playing against at least 2 faves and possibly a 3rd, and not looking at the top 3 logical plays in race 6. It will pay off if it comes in. I'd play it for 20c. I'd think if I got it right, it pays $500 or 600 for a buck. 

If I were to get to race 7 live, I would probably start a 2nd pick 3 with some I left off that I was on the fence on, that would pay well if they beat me. That assumes I have big value locked up on the ones I took when I get there. I will discuss how I play that another day.

RACE 1

I'd use both the probable favorite and the newcomer in the pick 5 and that should get you to race 2.  I'm also keeping my eye on Luke And Duke, as I like his breeding and he might be one of those that matures a bit late and improves fast at this stage. Sir Galahad paced a huge 3rd quarter last time, but he looks a bit short of the better ones for the win slot. Not impossible though. You could add those two if you want to play it safe.

4 Late Night is the obvious favorite if the 3 doesn't take huge money on the first time move to Moreau. This one had to step up to tackle some tough ones while on a big roll, and he did okay, but now gets to drop back in with these. On paper he looks very tough to handle. He added a second very fast quarter to the 3rd one he usually paces. That makes him even more dominant if he can do that again. Last time, he floated out and took a hole, but was shuffled all the way out the back door and came home with the flow, but too far back to be dangerous. If he is as is, he should handle this group. I could see him being in the 6-5 or slightly higher range.

3 Big John Houn goes first time Moreau, and he shows fast speed winning at Dayton in 52 and change. He paces a fast 3rd quarter every time, but will need more at this track in the stretch to beat the types he will meet. That is Moreau's job to get it out of him. He has a shot, but Late Night looks tougher than him to this point.

RACE 2

I don't like the probable favorite for the win in this race, so I would leave him off, use my listed 2nd likely choice, and then pick 5 others. These types, you have to go deep. The consistency is just not there to narrow it down much more than that. No standouts here anyway.

2,3,5 and 7 in addition to Monopoly.

6 Free Willy Hanover broke his maiden last time, first out for Vanderkamp, and was no shock to the public who hammered him down to 2-5. He basically just sat outside them and moved when he felt like it, drawing off with ease. However, he was being chased and didn't look like he wanted to go more or had more in the tank. He is the likely favorite, but I think something from the pack takes him in this one. I will leave him off the pick tickets and play others. Probably looking at 8-5 or slightly higher here.

8 Monopoly is 8-1 ML, but I think he falls 2nd in line and is the most likely winner although no cinch. He has been keeping tougher company than many of these and holding his own, only picked off last last time after blasting to control mid race by a stakes winner with a bit of class.

RACE 3

3 Windsun Revenge  wired these last time and is the favorite, maybe even less than even money again. The way he drew off last time, he is very tough to go against. He should maintain his roll here. Something would have to step up and show what they haven't lately. That is possible based on what they have done before, but not likely based on what they are doing now.

RACE 4

Sometimes when you are going to go against the favorite, you have many options underneath, but nothing you love. So, in those cases, and this is one of them, I work only to exclude those I think have virtually no legit shot, and take anything else that could be the one. In real world betting, if you are playing large enough base amounts, you can just grade them and play higher weight on some than others.
Here is my list of excludes in this race, and why:

1 J Js Delivery switches to Allard, draws the rail and aborts conditions for a claimer. He is 2nd off a short layoff. There are just too many strikes against this one, namely his new trainers sub par performance, a rail start, a very poor season and form and a lack of current speed relative to most of this field.

4 Machapelo has looked sounder of late, and nabbed 2nd. He does move up here and there is a big difference between what he faced last time and what he meets here. I cant see him being viable. His 0 for 59 record tells me he has to be in pretty light to beat all of them.

5 Shock N Rock starts poorly as a rule. At best, he looks like a 15 claimer. Even in that, he is hard to take on top. He can drop a line here and get back in the bottom condition, which is most nights even softer than a 15. I will look for him next time, not in this spot.

7 Lonewolf Currier still needs some motivation to race, and while he has improved for Des, he was walking at the wire last time, drifting again. He seems to drift the week before he decides he doesn't want to race anymore. That is likely this week. Even if he does show up and try, he isn't doing enough to get more than a piece. When asked to cut the mile 2 back, he stopped to a walk.

8 York Seelster went down the road last time and had no intention of letting any of them get near him. He does that from time to time. That was his 2nd in a row in this class, each time a slightly higher tag. They go for the highest tag here, and he gets post 8 instead of post 6, which is a significant difference, especially for one like him that likes to gun and wing it on the chooch.

I think he goes down here as the chalk, probably 6-5 or even money.

Any of the rest will do and can.

That leaves 5. Don't really like any of them. Could be any one and the price would be reasonable to take out a good chunk of the pool.

RACE 5

Don't like the logical fave here. I will take 4 that have a shot if it works out for them to take it. 3,4,5,6. Post can have an effect and those are the 4 best posts, along with the 4 most likely if things go their way.

1 P L Hercules post will hurt him. He doesn't like to work for it.

2 A Rod Hall  FTL, but not FTMB. He is a pro at that. No thanks. Seen enough of his galloping off the gate act.

3 Mystery Bet runs hot and cold like a fickle girlfriend. Because of that, he has to be used. He could be great or galloping along with the other bad behavers.

4 Little Red Chev  has decent form and the right post and connections. Reasonable shot if the trip works out.

5 Zeus Lightning as good as any right now, and has handled this type when he is. Class is not a big issue on a slight rise.

6 Covert Operative has had 2 now over this track for his winter stay. He moves up a bit, but another who can go with better anyway when he keeps his act together. He had the rail last time, and that didn't favor his chances. Post 6 does. Shot.

7 Catch the Dream seems like he will be the fave based on his "back class" and that he is getting a better post, and hitting the ticket. I'm not impressed with his starts off the gate and being babied along. I will toss him and take my chances with a few others. If he somehow is sounder and smoother, he could easily blitz these. I will risk that he isn't. He probably draws 2-1, but could go as low as 7-5.

8 Grana Padanno wired a soft bunch last time, but makes a double jump in class and draws the 8 hole. Pass.

9 Ramas Last Son  wired them a step below, but got a 2nd quarter breather, moves back up here, gets the 9 hole and is up against it on many variables. Pass.

10 Our Mojo has come back from a layoff sharp, but moves up here and draws bad. Back of the bus, brush for a slice, pass for me.

RACE 6

I have trouble picking winners for this class. So, another leg I'd go very deep.

I don't like the rail horse, but I would play any of the others I haven't rated on the premise a cowboy rodeo occurs here and they kill each other off. No clue which of the remaining win, so I'd take them all. That means 4,5,6,7,8.

Either of these two could be the fave. I would have said the 3, but he finished so bad he might deter many from going to him. You can include me in that group.

2 Never Been Told dropped back and wired them last time, which is the style he loves. He has a few that wont let him have that here unless he wants to make them pay. He will pay too if he tries it. I think he is a solid 12. but Montini wants to hold on to him, so, I will go to others while he keeps him in the barn and wait until next week if he doesn't get it done here and has to go back down again.

3 Jenkins Creek drops back in where he is more dangerous, but has also been ground down by chasing and trying to go with a lot better than these. He isn't sound anyway, and it hurts one like this to be pushed that hard for a few weeks over his head. That pressure was too much and he jumped it off 3 back when he was home free and walked to the wire last time when the pace was too much. He has made 73 starts the last two years, and 44 already this year. He is a warrior, but he looks tired, lame and sore to me. I will go against him as either the favorite or close 2nd fave.

9 Crankin It Up has a very high ML, but I could see him even going off the fave off that last line, even though he takes a double jump in class. If he were that good again, he should handle this bunch, even from this post. If he could get a 2 hole trip behind whichever of the speed demons wants to cut this, he could pace away again. Or, he could leave out and this will be a rodeo with him riding shotgun and hung, and the inside ones controlling the track. In that scenario, any of the other 6 win it.

RACE 7

You could make very strong arguments against almost all of these, but only weak ones for a few. I will take the favorite, plus the 3 others I can justify with plausible excuses that could turn based on them. That means I use, 1,3,5,7.

5 A Cool Card dropped a big cheque off his bottom line and gets to dive in class here. Its hard to know if he was just racing well but over his head last time, or has lost form. He also missed a month between starts there. He is the favorite, and although I'm not fond of what I see, from him or Joe C. this winter, I'd have to use him. The drop is just too substantial and his times and fast quarters stack up here.

RACE 8

There are lots of options in a race like this. I will just avoid it. I could toss the 1 and 10 but use just about any of the rest. If you can find a single in any other leg, I'd suggest you do that. I don't see any singles on this side of the card, so its a no play race for me.

5 Dirty Secret comes in with 6 in a row and probably draws fave status over the 4, who is the better horse, but winless this year. They both love the front.

RACE 9

Some would make the case Resistance Futile is a single to go to here. If he were verifiably sound and had an experienced driver, he would be that. He isn't and doesn't. He should win, if he comes back as is and doesn't spot them 15 at the half like last time. He is beatable though. Long layoff horses don't always step up in start 2 like shorter layoff ones do. It sometimes takes them 3 or 4 to get the race legs under them. Your call. I wouldn't go against him either. 3,4,5 and 7 look like the ones to go to if you aren't singling the 6.

6 Resistance Futile was not raced with an eye to winning last time, but almost did anyway when he shook free and was going by the winner before he ran out of racetrack. I'd say you are looking at 2-5 here. There are reasons to think he is beatable, but they are reasons, not probabilities.

RACE 10

"This one is a bit of a head scratcher." -Garnet Barnsdale.

Yup. Pass on this race. Don't know who wins it, who is the fave, who is live. Good luck if you want to try. I don't. If you single Resistance Futile, take them all.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 10, 2016

To summarize, I view these as the likely favorites, and I have separated them by play against or play, or, not play against but not plays either.

PLAY AGAINST

RACE 1  9 Keegan Ho
RACE 3  8 Awesomeness
RACE 4  5 Think on It
RACE 6  4 Pink Pistol
RACE 7  7 Carracci Hanover
RACE 10  4 Dreamy Fella

PLAY

RACE 2  3 Killean Finale
RACE 8  3 D Gs Pesquero
RACE 9  5 Asap Hanover

include but add others.

RACE 5  3 American Virgin
RACE 11 1 Darcee N

My best exotic play, based on the way the races look to me is this:

Late pick 4----3/5/3,6,8/1,2,3,4,5,6

18 combos.

could also be played as a late double, which I might also do if I don't get the first two legs right.

RACE 1

This one is tough. I don't like the 9 for the win, but I could see the 10. I could also see the post position doing in both and creating a longshot. I could see any of 2,5,6 or 7 being that one. I'd use all 5 of them but not the 9.

9 Keegan Ho floated out last time and then sat a trip, slid out mid lane and then picked them all off. He did win 4 in a row before he went down 2 back, but they were soft easy trips, which he wont get from post 9 here. He has also been off a month. That isn't a big deal, but its a factor when you are going to be asked to rough it. He doesn't appear to have a blast move off the gate, so he isn't going to make front at this track from this post without parking a long way to get it. I'd go against him.

10 Sweet Royalty  went a big trip off the shelf last time. It looked like he only went as much as he had to, and Mario only urged him when they got near him. I would expect him to be tighter and a bit better here. Post 10 is always a worry, but there isn't much inside him to fear. He will be tough to take down and I wouldn't go against him if he is the chalk. If he is the fave, he is liable to be lukewarm as the 9 will take action.

RACE 2

3 Killean Finale was raced conservatively due to being a month between starts last time, but luckily found the right racing room and she paced strong to the wire for the win. She is back in the same class, and back in 8 days this time. She is very tough to go against and I wouldn't. I think Randy will be much more aggressive here. He usually is when he knows the horse is fit and looks best on paper. I dont see anything that beats her in this field. If the 10 had a better post and wasn't come off a layoff, I might think otherwise. She is not.

RACE 3

8 Awesomeness is on a big roll here and tough to go against. He seems to get better every time, which is what you want to see from a colt. He has his chief rival to his inside, but he beat him last time. His reliance on getting a trip is a bit troubling, and for that reason, I will call him to get beat somehow. We all know Randy will stay in when we think he should be out and going. That could be in play on this one. The goal is to make the final, and if he is 2nd in this leg, that only furthers that cause.

RACE 4

5 Think on It  was raced easy last week as he was in with tougher than he has faced before, or he meets here. The goal and target was obviously this series and to stay fit and sharp but not overworked to do so. I like the 2 horse better, and I could see others also stepping up, so I will call him to go down. Its hard to just keep winning at this level unless you tower over them. I don't think he does that.

RACE 5

I found it tough to find a standout favorite to go against. I could see the public picking any of 4. I will pick 3 to rate. The picks by Garnet and Rozema reflect that there is some confusion about this race. If you are playing the pick 4, I'd take all of them except for Vegas Rocks, Cool Rock, Mr Carrots and Daylight Rush and Company Man. That means you go 5 deep.

3 American Virgin  was Fillion's choice over the 10. Not any great surprise there. He certainly raced well in a very tough Preferred last week, and his soundness issues have also improved. He is no lock, but only one of many. I suspect he goes off the fave, and I'd only use him as one of many. Not one to try and beat, but not one who can really justify a win price under 2-1.

2 Mach Pride is in the zone right now. I don't think he will be post time favorite, but his very sharp form might sway enough to play him into that position. I know on his best day, at the top of his game, he can go with these. I thought he might have been past that point in his career, but he proved me wrong last week. He can leave like a shot, but will others coming for him here. If he can let one go, but follow him to the lane, he can pop back out. That is his shot.

5 Nirvana Seelster still seems flat and tired to me. He could take favorite money, but he shouldn't. Not that he cant turn it back around, but while this isn't the Preferred, it isn't a soft bunch either. If I were to remove one from my 6 deep strategy, he would be it. He isn't doing enough and it isn't just one week. He has some competition for control here.

RACE 6

4 Pink Pistol wired them last week and is the "now" horse. She has stakes class on her side, and seems to be sorted out. Garnet is listing her his best bet of the night, and Rozema makes a pretty confident call on her also. I could see her being 4-5 or less. She still has troubling signs on the page and didn't parade sound last week either. I would go against her and there are a few here who look capable if she runs or isn't as good as last week. I would take 6,7 and 9, but you could make a case for the 5 also.

RACE 7

7 Carracci Hanover is the probable lukewarm fave. Didn't like what I saw from him 2 back, and didn't like anything better last time. He looks like a candidate to sink all the way to rock bottom before he works his way back up. We see that a lot in the winter with some that race a long season.

4 Paparazzi Hanover looks logical enough on the slight class drop and decent post. He doesnt strike me as that much better than many though, just one that had a good week last time. I think he is 2nd fave, but even if he is the fave, I'd go against him and the one I list as the probable fave.

I'd think Three of Clubs is the one to go to, but you could make a case in a race like this to take all 8 of the ones left and hope for the bomb.

RACE 8

Garnet likes my pick here, but he is going 4 deep. I would single her. Lets see how it  plays out.

3 D Gs Pesquero  is listed as 2nd ML, but she clearly looks like the post time favorite to me. She was forced into the Preferred where she was over her head, and took her medicine for two starts. She now gets back in the class she dominated the last time she was there, and gets a solid post. Garnet and Rozema both give her very favorable recommendations. Count me as the 3rd of those. I don't see her going down and she is the most likely favorite on the card to come through.

RACE 9

5 Asap Hanover went a monster half on the engine last week and paid for it in the lane. I expect him to leave as hard, but look to let one go this week. I think he will turns the tables and at a decent price. He is probably 5-2 or 3-1, and a very lukewarm favorite. But, I would think he gets it done.

4 Trashytonguetalker  could take favorite money even though he has a high ML and moves up a level off a narrow win. He impressed many and Weller has gotten the bettors attention the last two seasons. These are much tougher. I think he is short on class to the probable favorite.

RACE 10

4 Dreamy Fella is the 4th ML choice, but he looks like he could be the fave here. He meets a mixed bag, and has consistent form for the team of Weller and Henry, who the bettors love. I could see him, but only as one of many in a pretty wide open and contentious dash. When I see a favorite as one of many, I go against them. I'd rather have price value on my side.

3 Quick Fun N made an impressive blast move and opened up last time, only to get a shade wobbly at the wire. He did hold on, and was 5 weeks out of the box for that start. He gets in this race on a special condition, and he also could be the favorite.
I still like him, but not as much as last week. He is one of many in here.

RACE 11

Any of the inside 3 could go off a 7-2 favorite. I only know the ones outside them don't look like favorite candidates. You could make a case against any of these, and one for many of them. That type of class, as usual. I'd just toss anything I think can be tossed, and take all the rest, and hope I get the earlier legs right and get something of a price in this one. I wouldn't even attempt to call an outright winner.

1 Darcee N is the consensus pick if you look at Garnet's and Rozema's comments and selections. I find it hard to back him. Post 1 can hurt one like this.

2 Rise Up Now is hard to take based on what he has turned into this year, which is mostly a chalk burner like in his last two. I wouldn't play him. I'd rather roll the dice and use his multi race slot with a longshot who might have a good night.

3 Single White Sock gets marginal class relief but also is 4 for 50 the last two years.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 9, 2016

RACE 1

1 Howmacscanasta blasted out for the lead from the advantageous post 6 and cut the mile to the far turn, when she was challenged and beat into submission. She packed it in completely coming out of the turn. I don't see enough from her to suggest she is a player tonight. She is probably looking at the nw last 3 class at London after this tilt unless she turns it around. I will watch her to see if she is viable with those. She does have very good gate speed, and that will play at that track.

2 Charming Hill avoids Bring Me Diamonds and Miss Jones Shooter here. She also draws a good post for the trip she likes----leave out and be up close, stay in a long way, and find a live helmet to carry her and break the wind. She is a player for a price in with these.

3 Glory Jean  was backing away badly last week at the half off a soft rail ride. I have to see something positive before I consider her viable.

4 Sr Beach Babe is yet to race on this circuit, and now has missed a month off some sickness. None of that is good.  Its a bit suspicious to me that she was entered for nw3 and then sick and now comes back healthy, one would assume, in a bottom conditioned claimer. I have to see her parade. I'm inclined to toss her.

5 Sand Slinger  drew the 2 hole last week in her first start on the circuit after also missing more than a month. She tried to leave, but post 2 can be a really bad post at this track, especially if the 1 horse leaves enough to make you take back and you cant clear that one. That is what happened. J Mac took back, and then wisely let the eventual winner in front of him so he would have live cover when he came back out to make a bid. She tried to go with that one, and was right on her helmet until she stepped on the gas and this one was left behind. She did pace hard to the wire, and has a bit of grit. I could list her as short last week and a victim of her post to some extent. She is a very viable longshot here in my eyes. J Mac goes to Nixon's one, so P Mac picks up the mount.

6 Sobeautifulsowhat  did not impress me in her qualifier and her race lines are weak to be diplomatic. She is a homebred and has been through Virgil Morgan's barn. There aren't many out there better than him with this kind of horse. Pass for me.

7 Boozer Bruiser cannot be used from what I've seen of her. I will wait to see some evidence she is returning to the type she was last year where she could compete with this kind off the right trip. I don't see anything yet.

8 Nips Beach Girl  left out hard last week in her first try at this track, got away well, pulled first up, buried the leader, but gave cover to the live winner on her back and was beat to the wire by that one, who is razor sharp lately. She looks tough on paper and is the likely favorite, but no cinch. I'd use her in the exotics, but others also. Her last quarters are consistently a shade weak for a winner generally. Post does not help when JJ will have to use her hard once to get the lead if that is the plan. Allard took the lower tag this week, but still got the short end of the post position draw stick.

9 Howmacfiesty changes barns as her trainer is suspended for cheating. I will have to see her on the track. Post 9 likely deters me from using her. It did her in at Flamboro as well.

10 Acefourtyfour Alex is the only one to take the high tag, and gets post 10. She is up against it for the win with that in play. I'd think she can make the ticket, but I will roll the dice against her for the picks.

RACE 2

1 Hot Spot Hanover had some tough luck last time, as she wanted the lead, but was forced to go back in the 2 hole, then pinned in the rest of the way, trying to come up the rail but shut off near the wire. Post 1 likely means she will not get control again. She has been a very consistent and sometimes dominant force in the fall and into the start of winter. She has also been facing and beating or competing well against far better than all of these have. I think she is ripe to go down off some sort of trip problem, but I'd have to use her in anything multi race. Post 1 can get her beat here, and Fillion is making a lot of tactical mistakes since they have come to Woodbine. That is a factor in my mind until he gets his act back together.

2 Norcross Blue Chip is making a huge class jump to tackle some of these, but she has stepped up before. Her fast record was taken this year at Mohawk, and she has won her last two with decent posts. I hesitate to leave her off any exotics, but I probably will. She might be raced to get a decent showing towards making the final. If she does show she is one of the players in the series, I could be convinced to start using her towards the next leg and final .

3 Shooteronbye doesn't look like she has the class or speed to go with the better ones in here. I will pass. She will have to change my mind and do something she does not show on the page.

4 Marvalous Jet was a solid 2nd off a month off last time, and she has a fine record of winning races. She looks like the one to take down the chalk if that is going to play out. She will need more speed this time, but has showed it already in the States.

5 Queenofthejungle  is 1 for 30 and looks over her head for the win slot in this race. She can certainly pick up money though. She is very good at that. Her final quarters are consistently not good enough.

6 Misty De Vie has progressed rapidly this winter. You see a few each year that do that. She has put it together. However, she continues to start very slow, and its not as easy to pass winners, and then winners of nw2, or nw3, who also could have beaten her soundly on the way up the ladder with her. The rail horse has beaten her soundly 3 times on the page. I cant see her beating that one to the wire. Pass.

7 Docs Diva has made 2 gate breaks in the last 3 starts and gets a barn change. She has earned a solid buck this year by making a lot of starts and picking up shares. She is hard to like off her current form. Pass.

8 Icthelight Hanover makes her 2nd start for Zeron, and that is a potent angle to consider. If I was to go to a 3rd one in this race for the exotics, she'd likely be the one. Post 8 is an issue. I'd probably roll the dice against her this time because of that added obstacle. It could come back to bite me. It's a gamble.

RACE 3

1 Willyorwonthe  looked like a nice colt prospect at times last year, but he began to make breaks and he has continued that spotty form this year. He is 2nd time lasix  and picks up Saftic on his return here, but gets the rail. In a race where most, including me would go very deep in the pick 5, I'd be inclined to add him to the list. He will be a big price, but he is not impossible.

2 Rule of Hall changes barns to Dagfin, which obviously gets your attention. For that reason, and that one only, I will add her. She hasn't shown me yet a reason to think that wont make any difference. Maybe she does that tonight. Or maybe she turns on a dime, like Odds On Amethyst did for Dagfin when he got him. She took a fast win at Pocono when she is right. Odds On Amethyst also had a fast record and a whack of bad lines and issues when he arrived too. Beware.

3 Facing Justice made an interesting post parade appearance last week, coming out on a full gallop and doing that much of the time before the race. He was all business when they raced though, and many Justice Hall's are like that. Many also just gallop and never stop. He shows no lines to that effect, but he also shows 1 win in 2 years racing, at Miami Valley in the slop on a night when many probably weren't viable. I counted 5 others I want to use ahead of him. I'm on the fence if he should be the 6th one in addition to them.

4 Dunvegan Don didnt have the year that was expected of him at 3, and never won a race. That happens to many of his kind. Holland is a very low percentage trainer, as you can see by his average. He has burned the chalk players two times in a row at Flamboro, and his last quarters are just not good enough. He is one I will leave off and take my chances. He looks like the type that finds ways to lose but gets bet on his bank account and company he has kept.

5 Justice Jet  has high speed and wins lots of races, but also is very prone to blow up, like many of these. I'd have to use him. On his best day and behavior, he would daylight most of these. You could argue his last 3 posts for purses were not favorable. Two times trailing at Yonkers, and the 6 hole at Saratoga.

6 Hubby Number One finally gets post relief and a class drop. Add that to post 6, which favors his style if he can keep it together, and he is an automatic use in the exotics. He is no cinch though. He is prone to blow up at any time if he isn't exactly right and the track is off even a shade.

7 Stormont Wizard  missed a month between starts last week, and also hooked at least one class dropper and others who had okay form lately. He did okay enough and is a player with this suspect mixed bag of non performers and wannabe's.

8 Stuarts Dynasty draws poorly for the 3rd time in a row. He is hard to like off those lines and breaks. His low amount of starts is also an issue to consider. He has issues. I will pass on him here.

9 Steppin Out qualified last week, although it appears she did not have to. That is curious. Because of her preferred style and her post tonight, along with bad form and some sickness, she is one I wont include in a race I could make a case to include a lot of them.

10 Scary Good total pass for me. I see nothing to suggest he is dangerous here from the 10 hole. He'd have to be a monster price on form and post position. It couldn't be high enough to tempt me.

RACE 4

1 Request for Parole was a very early scratch out of the Preferred last time, and gets some class relief here. But, she is meeting most of the ones she would if that class went this week, less the dominant winner last time. I think she is at least one step over her head.

2 Waasmula has paced 2 really good miles in her last 2. Last week, it just wasn't enough. The week before it was. I suppose she is in the mix, but I will go to others.

3 Wrangler Magic accepted the pocket last week, for once but was no match for the dominant winner. She did beat the rest easily and thus has to be considered a top contender here......if......she doesn't try to cut it and take on all comers. Fillion has been prone to let others do the work the last week or so. If he sticks to that, she has a shot to pop the pocket this time and get there first. She needs every edge to beat these, but she can certainly do that. Her post is very favorable to her style tonight.

4 Yagonnakissmeornot doesn't seem to leave well of late, and last time she was buried in traffic and had no hope. She could upset the apple cart, as it seems happens a lot in this class when so many are so close in talent, ability, form and chance. I'd probably use her in the picks. She will have to do better. Obviously, she has a career license to be able to do that.

5 Delightful Hill  is just not getting it done. She is one who can stay in this class if the Preferred goes next time. Avoiding most of these is probably the right recipe for her to blast off and go full bore the entire mile. In with these, I will pass.

6 Ms Mac N Cheese skipped last week, and Fillion picks against her here. I will as well. She is not doing enough to sway me...yet.

7 Imagine Dragon  did nothing from post 8 last week, and didn't get it done the two times before that. She is possible, but I like others. She doesn't come to play every week. I will bank on that being enough to exclude her.

8 Sayitall Bb  takes a sharp class rise and draws the 8 hole. She looks overmatched with these. If it had not been a Preferred in disguise, I'd like her better. Much the same idea as the 5 in here.

RACE 5

1 True Reflection is hard to like with her penchant to not try and the likely mid pack start this post will deliver. She was passed easily by one who had weak form last time and was 2nd best to her. I will take my chances that she continues to find a way to not be first to the wire. Trevor picked Weller's over her.

2 Velocity Reign  goes first time Weller, but unlike many we have seen come in lately to him, she isn't a young project horse, but an underperforming class mover type. Just the type he can wake up with his formula and make them step up like he has done with Dreamy Fella and Maserati Seelster. I would think she is going down the road here if she has the gate speed to pull that off. She showed that on her bottom line at Dayton, but couldn't sustain. That is where Weller comes in.

3 Whistys Paradise gets some class relief, but has horrid form and is making breaks. She is tough as nails, but I will stick to my assessment that she should be in the 10 claimer. I will play against her making me eat those words.

4 Docs Hollywood  takes a slight class drop, and that is certainly a factor. But, she wasn't winning when she was in with these. I rate her a shot. She has woken up sharply before without much notice, and If I recall correctly, it was with Fillion. Her 1 for 35 record this year is troubling.

5 Shadys M Three looked sounder last week and raced better. She is one of those that will be okay and viable when she happens to be sounder. That isn't often these days, but when it is, she has to be considered a threat. You don't get that visual post parade option for the pick 4, but as a straight win bet, you can look her over parading. If she is good, she is a value play if the odds reflect her 2 for 67 record over the last 2 seasons.

6 Topville Cheetah wired them in 56 and change at Flamboro last time, minus two seconds for the slop. That has to be respected. She is very much a streak horse. Right now, she could be on the front end of the streak. Have to use her in with this bunch. Post 6 gives her the potential start she likes.

7 Three Dreams dropped the line as expected and now hits bottom. The post is a bit better, and Cullen has had her for a month now and for 2 race starts. She has a shot, like a lot do in here.

8 Mappos Moenhay went sharply off form in a cheap claimer at Hoosier and was laid off. She is very prone to do that, then comes back fresh and more viable. Due to post 8, I will just watch her tonight and see what she brings to the table. She could be in for 8 next week, and those are more her kind. At 74 starts the last two seasons, she had reason to need rest. She is now rested...and we will see how ready.

9 Ainsleynoelle draws poorly again, and also was interfered with last week. She is hard to like on form, even with the excuses you could come up with if you looked the page over. That does make her dangerous, but I will go to others and take my chances.

10 Wildcat Beauty habitually does not do good from far outside posts, in any class, even on a drop back to where she has been okay recently. In my mind, it has to be something else in this race. She could get on the ticket if she takes back and follows a live flow. Probably wont get her all the way even if that plays out.

RACE 6

1 Entranced wired a weak bunch...barely, but now moves up and draws the rail, which hasn't worked out for him lately. I will go to others. He is the class mover type now, and this is the move up, not down.

2 E L Rock ships in with decent form, and he has won many races at this track, and others. But, he is probably better suited for the bottom condition. Unfortunately, he won his last race and doesn't fit that. Pass for me. Too many others to like ahead of him.

3 Utopia  is 3rd off the claim for Moreau, and he sent him to Flamboro to take a nice purse last time, which he did. Now he is tagged again, but draws much better than the previous attempt. That gives him a big shot if he is good to go. He sometimes shows up dog lame, so you have to watch that. If he is right, he is a top contender.

4 Totally Ripped  just doesn't quite do enough in this class, but is better one step down. Doesn't mean he cant though. Its not a huge difference between the two, and many move back and forth. I give him a longshot chance if every trip angle goes his way, and against others.

5 Eternal Quest  another B track shipper looking to convert good form there into a better shot here. I'd have a hard time listing him a shot even at the bottom condition here. His overall times don't stack up. Pass.

6 Its Huw You Know  takes a big class drop, but is the buyer beware type. He can just beat himself before he even gets started. I will take a stand against him and play a few others for the pick 4. He is more likely to bomb than behave.

7 Lexus Rocky I suppose is possible, but he would have to show up, get the right trip, and have others not do both of those. I will not bank on that. One level down, I'd think that is more possible. A lot of ones in here probably think they have a shot, and will be leaving hard. That means he has to work hard on the rim to get around them. He has not showed he likes doing that.

8 Harper Blue Chip  I will continue to pass on. He just doesn't look right, and he takes money solely on his previous career as a top notch colt. He isn't anywhere close to that horse anymore.

9 Burnin Money picks up another bad post. Going to the back of the bus isn't something that enhances his chances, and his form is not great either. He always comes back around. I will watch for that and wait for a better post to make use of it.

10 Duh Bubbees drops sharply in class, but that gets negated by the post he draws. I will pass. He doesn't look like the gritty type that overcomes the worst post at this track.

RACE 7

1 Dorabella nipped a very green maiden coming off a long layoff, and bunch behind her who are not much stock. She now has to face winners, with much better form than her.

2 Drift Panic will have to be seen. Soundness might be an issue here, but with these types, they can be fixed up and start performing as most expect they should. If she were to impress me in the post parade, I might go to her.

3 Sportsillustrator picked up a slice last week as most of them were on their hands and knees down the lane, including the winner and 2nd place horse. I don't like the way this one travels, and generally those types have trouble in straight conditioned races with others that look to have an upwardly mobile future. Pass.

4 I Wish You Well had her own way last time, but was easily mowed down by one who followed her all the way and she meets her again. She could turn the tables, and I think has a shot to do so. Those two seem to have a big edge on the rest of this bunch.

5 Life Groove is 2 for 35 life, and rarely as dangerous at this track as she was 2 back. She took her shot that night. I'm not certain she comes to play every week and can compete with the better ones, unless....both of those dont show up or have some horrid trip luck go against them.

6 Zealous Seelster doesn't look viable in conditions at this track to me. She never has. Decent B track horse. Maybe she ages into a solid bottom claimer next year at this track.

7 Seven Angels cant handle maidens at this track. Nuff said.

8 Casimir Operaqueen is likely to be sent out of there again to control her own destiny. If Luc doesn't want to retake she will have to cut it and fend off any pretender that wants to run at her. Will she have enough left if she is asked to work harder this time? I don't know. She does seem determined to pace right to the wire. Your call. I'm on the fence and think it could be either of the top 2 from last time.

9 Collective Wisdom gets some class relief here, and that is a big help. But drawing the 9 hole with a few that want the lead means she is up against a bias in this one. She leaves, she has to be used hard to get the lead and will be attacked. She takes back, she has a lot of road trouble with those that are more likely to be dead cover or roadblocks than a live tow in a decent flow. Only if one of my top 2 run before the gate and don't make it to the first turn. If that happened, the trip scenario completely changes. Neither look like that type.

10 Poetic Dream  draws the 10 hole again. Shit luck for her. Lets see if she can stick a bit closer in the lane this time. Not tonight for me.

RACE 8

1 Docs Sausalito  has developed into a solid mare over the course of the year, and arrives in the Niagara at the right time to take advantage of her improved form and experience. She doesn't need the lead, so the post might not hurt her as much as some. A smaller field means she can not be used hard early and she can pick up cover and save her one potent late move for when it matters. Big shot.

2 Dewar N Soda can certainly get an easier trip here. But she is way over her head with a few of these as I see her.

3 P L Jasmine  is a consistently poor starter who looks about 2 classes behind the top contenders in here. I think she will come around and find a level, but this isn't it. Big longshot.

4 Never Any Doubt  missed a month, then just went around last week, obviously with an eye to this engagement coming up. She looked to be setting up a big try to win the Autumn Final, but she also bears out bad at times late in the mile. She is possible, but others seem to be just a bit better at this moment. That could easily change. Contender.

5 Tempus Seelster  drew post 10 last time and brushed with the pack. Another who was raced easy with the eye to the start of this series. The post favors her here, and this split is pretty soft. I'd think Zeron will take his shot to try and win this week, knowing he is probably going to hook one of the two very viable players in the earlier split next week. She isn't my favorite type, but she isn't meeting a tough bunch here either. I'd call her 3rd, but I expect her to effect the outcome.

6 Art Angel Baby  has terrible form, and will have to be seen parading. These types of shippers can really hurt you if you toss them outright without at least looking them over on a track and barn change. She dominated at Saratoga, but Yonkers didn't work out. Something went wrong. It could easily start going right again. Possible upsetter if I like what I see.

7 Jimbelina  wired a weak bunch last week but she did it well. If she can get that start again and find one to cover her up, she isn't impossible. I like a couple of others, but I'd suggest her as likely enough to add to the pick 4.

8 Stonebridge Pearl  needed to go to Plainridge to get a win. That is a pass for me when I see that. She has not beaten anything else all year, and her lone win at 2 was at Grand River. Essentially, she is an A track maiden meeting some who would be tough in nw3. Pass.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 8, 2016

RACE 1

1 Fancourt did not look sound last winter when he made his first appearance, but he had enough overall talent to win despite it. He was immediately put on the shelf, and returned for a qualifier last Thursday. He paced fast enough, but still looked to have the same issues. These are really soft as maidens go. I will go to another, but he isn't impossible if he can be slightly better. He is a winner in 55 facing mostly maidens.

2 Lyons Delight  gets significant class relief, for the 2nd time. He drew the rail last time, but was very steppy leaving and McNair had to hold him together. He doesn't seem to start well from any post, and while he is now facing level competition, he doesn't appear to be the top rung of those. He did get in the ticket picture late, but looked wonky when he was called on for more. He goes just enough each time to be dangerous but not win. Those types always look tempting, but continue to disappoint you. I will go elsewhere.

3 Six Flags  made a very poor post parade appearance on Sunday night at Flamboro, and comes back on 3 days rest, also being asked to step up his speed quite a bit. I don't see him as viable against these for the win slot. I will take a wait and watch attitude as he tries the big track without proving he can handle lesser at the B's. He has won in 56 at Georgian. That is a plus. But that was then. Currently, he doesn't show me enough.

4 Red Store did everything right in his qualifier and has to be considered a legit threat here. He did gap out at times in that test, but he is young and green. We can expect improvement.

5 Sedona Seelster couldn't have gotten a better trip last time if he bought it at the tack shop on the way in to the track. He left out, got right onto the heavy chalks back, who parked out another and used him as a road block to the outer flow. This one had a chance to come out, but he was spent down the backside and all done turning for home. He popped off a decent mile one time, but as mentioned last week, went the same speed overall. If you look at his last 2 bad efforts, when the pace picks up in the 3rd quarter, he packs it in. He doesn't have winning ability at this track.

6 Clouseau Hanover started poorly last time, but made up the difference along the way, only beat a length, driving hard to the finish. He took a couple of seconds off his qualifier. He has had young horse issues along the way, but he is very well bred and looks like the one. He is however, a 2yo. I will have to see if he parades well and is holding up to the long season of racing. If so, he looks like the one to me.

7 About a Boy doesn't look to me to be much stock. He had every chance last time to hang out the horse that was going nowhere and then drive on to at least be top 2. He stopped as soon as one blew by him, then let the majority of the rest steamroll him in the lane. I see nothing to suggest this horse is an A track horse. He can prove me wrong if he steps up.

8 Chummy Park is a total pass for me. Can't see any reason this horse is racing at this track, unless lucking into 5th money every two weeks is the goal.

9 Eas Ideal looked to range up on the last turn last time, and made it through that part then, but he still had nothing in the lane. These are very weak. I suppose Weller might still be tinkering with him. The price better be big for me to even entertain playing him solely that whatever the issue is, he will overcome it at some stage. He was still bearing in in the first turn, but not horribly like before.

RACE 2

One thing about trainers is that they seek out and do very well with certain sires. Auciello does well with Mach Three and American Ideal. Weller does well with Skydancer Hanover and Artistic Fella. John Burns was well known to be fond of Big Towner. Not that a good trainer cant do well with any horse, or any breed, but when you know you can step up a certain type of horse, you seek them out. I think that is in play in this race, with two trainers. The two I just mentioned. Doesn't mean they will win, but it provides an angle that can provide value that might not be apparent on pure form.
1 A Bettors Risk had every chance off a soft trip when he shook free to go forward in the lane. He did not. He hung and others passed him easily. I will watch him this time and he has to do better. At least he didn't cross his legs and look like he was going to lay down on the track like he did before. He might be a project...several race project...for his trainer, who has done that before with this type. Note he was an early scratch.

2 Rockin Ronnie comes off 3 tough posts in a row. He did win off one of them. I will go to others in this spot. He will have to up his game to just get on the ticket now that he is not a maiden anymore.

3 Bugger Jerry  ships back in from a variety of US tracks, mostly Yonkers, where he has been trounced. We have seen this before with Carmen, and then they look like they had some Niatross injected into them and look like bearcats. He is 1 for 24 and that win came at Northville. Essentially, he is a maiden facing winners. He probably needs to find a cheap conditioned claimer at Flamboro, but he is not a toss because of the past history of his trainer with this type of non performer. If you are looking for a hard to take bomb type for your pick 5, he looks like that type to me.

4 Blue Fox  has not raced for a purse since early October. He did qualify okay, although he looked to hang a bit on the turn. He is a new recruit for Weller, and I'm of the opinion he steps this particular type up..but he takes a race to figure them out. Was that race the qualifier? That is your call to make. I would use him in the pick 5, but probably wouldn't list him as a flat out win candidate.

5 Hughgetthecredit broke his maiden in his first try for Cullen. He is a nice little handy horse and is tactical. He can get to the lead or pocket here, and that makes him dangerous. I think he needs at least one to adapt to winners. He isn't facing the 2nd coming of Cam Fella here though.

6 Duneside Sport  did not impress me in his 1st start at this track for Joe C. He gets a better post here but I'm not sold he is a condition horse, even if most of these probably aren't either. At least a couple of them are. Bit player status unless he turns his form around.

7 Putnams Legacy drew poorly last time, went to the back of the bus, and did little. His overall back half speed was good, but it wasn't like he was racing when he did that. He isn't impossible with these, but he has to step up at some point. He looks like a one brush type for this track. I suppose if he were to get away 5th or 6th, follow live cover and just stay on it, then try to one brush home, he has a shot. Its a longshot. Not a toss though.

8 Shooter Inthecreek brushed past a cinchy winner last time, who let him go, but then was attacked full bore by a very nice colt who took the steam out of him, and he folded it up late. That was first time Moreau. He is another who is hard to like with confidence, but possible if the trip goes his way.

9 Chalky I see nothing from this one to suggest he is in the picture tonight.

RACE 3

1 Vasco Bi was first time trotting hopples last time for Per, who kept him trotting. Post 9 likely did him in. Post 1 here wont help a green colt like this. I will take a watch and wait approach on him. He is probably progressing and learning, heading towards whatever works for him when he comes back in the spring, if that is the plan. He is still in test drive mode.

2 Mister Blues has not impressed me from what I've seen of him. I don't think he will do at this track. Pass.

3 Royal Intrigue is a homebred who is getting a late start to her career. Her pedigree is stacked with bluebloods who made good money, many who were better aged than as 2yo's. She was aimed at a 2yo start, but she didn't make it and has been shelved since. She did everything right in her qualifier. She left out to lead, cut it, went around smooth and straight, and kept at it when another came to her. She does seem a one speed type, but that could play with this bunch. I rate her a shot at a price.

4 Spot in the Sun will have to do a lot better than she did in her first start to get my attention. She is a project at best to this stage.

5 Core Fusion was raced to win last time, but it seems 59 is his limit right now and that wasn't good enough to hold off the winner. I will have to go elsewhere and hang on a longshot here. This is the type of race where it looks like some longshot takes an obvious one like this when it matters.

6 In for Along Haul  was never keeping up in her slow qualifier, and meets the winner of that here. I can't touch this one.

7 Sylvia Express ships in as a new recruit for Allard and goes FTL. She has quite a few X's on the page, but you have to take a bit of risk in this type of race. I could see her if she behaves and the trainer change plus added Lasix makes a difference. Chancy but viable. Note, she is scratched.

8 Jagersro is 0 for 30 and has the 8 hole. She tried the front end last time but stopped when challenged. Pass.

9 Dad Leads will have to be seen. His variables are really bad. I think he might come around, but this spot is tough to waste a pick 5 spot on him. If he does it tonight, he will beat me.

10 Andovers Choice has a lot of strikes against him.  Post, lack of winning, off sick, trainer not stepping up trotters of this type. I will go to others.

RACE 4

1 East End tried this class first time last week, and held together well in the last turn, 4 high much of it, then outpaced the one beside him for 2nd. I'm not sold he can keep it together every week. Probably a must use in the picks, but not in my top 3 if I were only going 3 deep.

2 The Avenger is not doing enough. I will go to others. If Robinson gets his attention and he turns this week, I will get taken out. He will probably do that once this winter.

3 P H Blackjack cant see anything to recommend this one. He is going backwards every week. He has tried these now, and not gotten any better. I dont see lasix added, so that must not be a factor.

4 Ignition Switch another new recruit for Weller. Another Skydancer Hanover from the Wilfong's. I'm inclined to watch him once. He isn't impossible and the fact he is being tagged on the first try suggests he has him figured out and he is what he is. Your call. I have to see him.

5 Imsporty took the high tag for protection last time and as a result got 3rd money instead of 2nd and a legit shot at the winner. Back to practical here. Middle of the gate, lower tag, new home again likely, short price, and likely winner. Usable for the pick 4 and 5, but I'd not want a very chalky low price on him straight up for the win. 7-5 would be my bottom limit, and that is really pushing it.

6 Lil Richie doesn't do enough for me to back him. Pass again.

7 Just a Thought went the long trip last time but hung in for 4th. These aren't deep or tough top to bottom. I rate him a longshot if the 5 can get roughed up.

8 Shadowfall took an easy score at London last time. I don't see him as competitive with these. I would guess Vanderkamp is pricing him and letting them have a free look. Obviously nobody is giving him 22k for this horse, and he wants them to see where he stacks up so they can list a fair offer.

9 Ocaptain Mycaptain  was raced in Dayton by a guy who lives in Strathroy. That is curious. Suggests he cant get around London. He didn't look like he got around Freehold. He did win his last in 55 over Dayton, which is a fast 5/8ths. Combined with the bad post, and the steep class rise, the price will be right here. The horse has some breeding behind him. I could list him a reasonable long shot chance. I'd want to see 30-1. Pick 4 and 5 sweetener candidate.

10 Windsun Falls is hard to like for many reasons, among them, his suspect gait at times, his bad form and his post tonight. I can't use him as viable as is.

RACE 5

1 I WANNA BE GEARED dropped a shade last time and attracted a claim from Sr. Johnson. He was a solid 2nd that night and has been okay at this track in the winter before. He has always been consistent about hitting the ticket 50% of the time and winning his share when the variables come together for him. He likes to lead and post 1 might go against that strategy for him. I give him a minor shot, but having to do extra work will probably cost him when it matters tonight.

2 Hoosier Your Dali got beat 13 last week, but the winner was off by himself by 10. The line looks worse than it is. He was steppy and choppy gaited most of the way, trying to run, and that is not on the page. I have to pass on the physical appearance I saw. He was in for 5 at Hoosier for a reason.

3 Every Girls Desire comes to this track and moves up a bit, but off a win. He does a lot of winning. He will get his class tested here. I think he fails that test. He has not shown the overall speed you need at this track to win races most nights.

4 Stir and Serve another one coming in off the claim at Flamboro, stepping up and who wins a lot of races. We have seen him before. This is a mediocre field with no standouts. He has as good as shot as most of them. His starting position and decent gate speed is a plus.

5 Pylater the classic lame but game type. He cant be discounted as one who might leave, run and hide and try the outstagger them route to victory. Not my choice, but he has to be respected on that angle.

6 Scotty Mach N was bearing in a bit last time in the turns, and then flat most of the way. Every week is another week with this kind and Sheppard is one of the best at getting them over problems. He has a shot if he is better this week than the last couple. The better post is a help.

7 Cheyenne Ford  probably needed a start last week, and might be better here. Might. He is another viable longshot to consider if you are looking for one here. He could just be NFG, as could any of those. One of them has to win this race.

8 Well Said Stride comes in a month off and with McGuire, from the Meadows. I've seen this movie before. This one has a famous mother, and a dud of a sire father. He wouldn't shock me, and I'd have to use him in the picks.

9 Calgary Seelster had the crap pounded out of him last time, to no avail, as he was not even close to the winner, nor could he pass the winded leader who has a history of folding. Post 9 tonight. I will go against him and load up on price horses. He can beat me if he shows up and is capable this week.

10 Royal Canvas pass from what I have seen.

RACE 6

1 Profound Patience I cannot back from what I have seen lately and this tough starting spot.

2 Pick Up the Tab was a decent 2nd last time in the first for his new trainer. He looks like the one here, but I'd be leary of a short price. There are X's on the page. Has to be seen.

3 Grace Duharas ran off the gate last time and was never in it. That I could overlook. Breaking her maiden against the bunch she did, that doesn't leave my mind. I think she is in for a long stay in this class.

4 Kilmer Road started 9th from the rail and could never close that gap. I'm not fond of his suspect gait when he is asked for speed. He might take heavy action again, especially 2nd off the layoff. I will go to others.

5 Grego still dont see anything from this one to suggest he wins a race at this track. He can pick up shares by going one speed and behaving, something his trainer has made a good buck on with this type of horse.

6 J N Ryder Nope.

7 Guscrest has missed an entire year. He is not impossible if whatever caused him to miss that time was bothering him when he was racing last year. I will look him over. If he looks the part, I'd be willing to use him in this race, when I can make a solid, definitive case against most of these.

8 Prince of Minto has a license to be a viable longshot off a win at Flamboro from the 9 hole and a decent effort from the 10 last time at this track. One of a few who are likely to step up. Which one? No idea. One of them.

9 Im Wanted has joined Team Moreau. He will have to be seen. He has issues that can be viewed by watching him trot. If he looked to be better this time around, the talent appears to be there. Moreau did well with his full brother Cracker Zack when he has had him. Maybe he knows something about the family. I think anybody knows that adding trotting hopples will keep one like this trotting. But he is lame. That he also has to take care of.

10 Sibson  didn't look good trotting in the race last week and blew up coming out of the turn. Post 10 will do him in here, even if he was viable from a better spot, which I'm on  the fence on. He beat maidens who are likely to stay maidens. That is not a good reference.

RACE 7

1 Warrawee Star  has not showed me enough to back her yet. Her slow starts are a problem. That only gets worse from the rail.

2 On the Minute Mark draws better and gets a nice Christmas gift from the race office, who writes a special condition to let her in. She easily could upset these if the 5 bombs out again like she did last time as the monster chalk.

3 Columnist 0 for 31 and there are viable ones in here. If there is a spot for this one to win, it doesn't look like this spot.

4 Ponder the Dream see above, but this one isn't even hitting the ticket lately.

5 Two Sides of Love was a solid 2nd to a nice enough filly last time who had won before and moved up to be 2nd last time as well. She was horribly overbet last week, but raced well. She is in the mix here, the likely deserving favorite, but I'd think a more realistic price. Possible, but as we saw last week, she is not a bearcat and has to be viewed as a legit contender, among others. Maybe she can leave and that is tried now that she has some experience.

6 Bonnies Gem couldn't catch a softer field or spot than last week, but she still wasn't near the ticket. I don't know what it takes to get this one over the hump. Possibly a trainer change. I will wait on that.

7 Keystone Tiffany was tried early at 2, but didn't make the cut and missed the rest of that year and all of this one. She is a half sister to Invitro and Bigtime Ball, but there are other foals that weren't much either. She could be a good one, or, just one of those with nice breeding but non performers. She shows enough speed for me to consider her. I will watch her parade closely. If she is right, she is the type that can pop off on a field like this at first asking. At 2 qualifiers, she is likely to be tighter than most that qualify but have never raced.

8 Manhattan Kelly is coming off a long layoff and has drawn bad. I didn't like the looks of her when she raced before, even the night she won. She has issues. I will watch her tonight, but pass for me. I like others.

9 Maddys Credit  shows me nothing to suggest she handles this post hole she gets tonight. Pass.

10 Jimmys Little Girl another who gets in on the special condition, and even with post 10, she has a shot. She has been keeping much tougher company than all of these. She will need live cover and very good flow. Its a tough sell, but not impossible to think could play out.

RACE 8

1 Lmc Mass Oak looked like he might be the winner last week, but tried to come out of the hole when the room wasn't there, and jumped it off. Not his fault. He is one of many, but starting poorly and having to work for it because of the rail start has been a problem for him. Ticket material, but tough sell for the win.

2 Conway Escape is hard to like off his weak B track lines and rise in class for this test. I cant see it.

3 Elegant Holiday was claimed by Waxman 2 back and drew the 8 hole last time at Flamboro. She moves up to come here, but meets many who have no solid form at this level. She has had many bad posts on the page. I will cut her some slack and think she has a legit shot in a race where many of these don't look like they do.

4 Asterix aborts conditions after slamming the brakes on at the half last time. He had a bad post that night as well. So, there is some license here on the class relief and post improvement. 1 for 35 does not inspire confidence.

5 Vics Royal Lady was pretty good here last winter when she came and won a few. She took 3 in a row before her last, all 4 at Flamboro with basically this type of horse. She has to be considered a player with post 5 and Fillion calling the shots.

6 Giant Muscles found the proper level last time but was no match for the winner, still stopping badly in the stretch. This post is favorable, and his style is as well. Shot, but I wouldn't take shot money on him.

7 Northern City Girl  improved for Weller last time, as he jammed her on 3 days. I could see her based on the way she trotted the 3rd quarter in that one. She will have to be seen. I have noted some soundness problems there and that is a week to week, monitor type thing with her.

8 Summajestic kept it together last time and nabbed 4th money at 106-1. He has issues but also enough speed if they can be resolved. Another one I have to see. I'm inclined to toss him this week with post 8, but watch to see if a score could be on the horizon in the new year.

9 Secretcode Hanover still shows horrid last quarters, and will be way back based on post and how he has to be babied away to keep him flat. I can't see how he can make up that difference.

10 V for Victory draws the 10 hole again. I will keep my eye on him. These types can hold hidden form when they get ignored with consecutive bad posts.

RACE 9

1 Mr Match on Beach took heavy chalk money last time but while he was given every chance, he was no match for the winner. I'd consider him here if the price was right. Post 1 isn't a huge problem for him. He is probably better racing off the pace, hopefully away mid pack and following the flow. These are weak. He could draw 7-5. I'd pass on that. I'd want 5-2 to play him. That probably isn't there. He is one of many as I see it, but a legit, logical contender.

2 Jrs Big Buddy got parked out last time, but cleared the pocket sitter who closed the hole, but then stopped. To his credit, he kept going forward. He shows signs of having the talent to win this class. I'd consider him at a price and use him in the late pick 4 and double. If he could get to the 2 hole and find a live one to follow, he is viable.

3 Shelbys Ideal comes off the shelf, and was weak in his qualifier. I can't see him lasting if he is put on the front again.

4 Brookletsjustified  joins Weller's stable. This is the type I wait a start on to see if he tunes them up and then they are a big go in start 2 and 3. He has a fast win. That is on the plus side of the ledger.

5 Southwind Savage just missed getting up last week. But again, he missed getting up again last week. He is far better off being 2nd than winning. He appears dead in the water if he wins. Pass.

6 Swellendam is very lightly raced and comes off the shelf, with lasix added. I liked his qualifier and is one I might take a shot with if he looks sound parading. That is an issue from many in this barn. I will look him over when he parades. He already shows speed most of these don't.

7 Jump Jet first time starter, 2yo Jereme's Jet. Pass. Watch. Assess.

8 D M Reacher total pass. I see nothing I like from this one, and post 8 adds a deeper hole to the well.

9 Hes Gone Bad has had 4 off the shelf. No progress to speak of.

RACE 10

1 Max Is Back is one I have backed this fall a couple of times, but I am turning in the membership card to his fan club. He just doesn't deliver on the talent he shows you in small bits. That happens with horses. He will likely find himself in the right stable one day and they will sort him out. I will wait for that to possibly happen. His lines are hard to like.

2 Emptythetill  took back from the 8 hole last time in his first for Carmen. It was a suspicious race to watch period, but in any event, he closed up for a solid 2nd, nowhere near the 35-1 winner who had one lifetime win in about 40 starts going in. I could see him here if the trip was favorable. I wouldn't take a short price off the one start in the barn and big close angle. Those types can burn the crap out of you.

3 Frontier Seelster looked to blast by on the final turn last time, but may have run in a bit, and stalled. He is uber green, and those types come around as they learn and the trainer learns what works best for them. I look up and down the page, and I land back on him as my top call, but I don't want a short price. 7-2 seems about right value wise.

4 New Standard is 2nd off the claim for Giles. I saw nothing first time out to back him now. Whatever his connections saw, I don't see it.

5 Bugatti  tried to pike them, but got picked up by the winner and another, and almost missed the ticket. He just cant be used and then finish. That is my read on him. I like others in here who have two legit moves.

6 Whatashowinontario is an ignorant puller who wont rate, but also doesn't have the talent to wire this caliber. I cant touch him on that scenario. If he could rate, he would be the type that plays in this field. If you think that will play out, he could be value. He was fighting the driver when he tried to take him back last time off the gate. Maybe his new driver J Mac will just blast him and try to hook someone to cover him up.

7 Give Em Back made a sharp and noticable move to grab 3rd money in his first try at this track. Sinclair doesn't come unless he thinks he has power. He can make a good buck racing at London. He will need to do it again to get me to back him next time. He could easily do that, and even do it tonight. I like others just a bit better than him.

8 Rolling Rock is scratched.

9 Deadly Action didnt do enough last week and now draws outside of some sharper and older ones. I have to pass for now.

10 Toy Cop is progressing, but the post will really set him back here. Possible bottom of the tri or super type. I will watch. He seems to have talent and they are finding the right racing style for him.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 5, 2016

RACE 1

1 Intended Style  righted the ship last time. He just seems to turn it around when he hits rock bottom. Post 1 is a tough sell at this track, but I wouldn't toss him with this soft bunch. Not likely my choice though. The bias is clear. If he could get a 2nd over tow like last time, he has a shot.

2 Every Day takes the more realistic approach tonight and finds a claimer. In for 8k would have been better in my view. I like others.

3 Gunpowder closed with the pack last time, and had pace, but didn't do enough. He remains a bit player. One of these weeks he will pop off on these. He is another who would probably be well off to drop to the bottom where he can pick those up.

4 Warrawee Phoenix is remembered on this circuit as a hanger and one who cannot be used more than once in the mile. The Maritimes was a good place for him to ply his trade, but he is back on the scene now for Galucci. He wont see my money. I tried him a few times with Waxman and even his gas couldn't help this one. He is 6 weeks off and adds lasix. I doubt that helps him. He is just NFG and not much stock. It happens.

5 Cundalini tried to wire them up last week with a blast move but he gave it up in the lane. I maintain I think he is a better 8 than this level. Mcnair takes over and I guess that is an upgrade, but I'm not sure it helps. I would think it would if he could get him out fast and then take a seat and follow the entire way. He is possible, but unlikely.

6 Outlaw Gunpowder was claimed by Moreau and he puts him right back in for 10. I'd think Cullen will take him back and Moreau will gas him up and have him sent. He looks like a short price and a likely winner. I will note the Fillion/Moreau express has been derailed of late, not steaming down the track with the horn blowing.

7 Stimulus Spending  moved late but wasn't dangerous. I like others. So did JJ, he took the 8.

8 Never Been Told met his match in the tougher field last time and now moves back down, but takes the high tag. I think his good form has run its course. I will likely go to others. Front end mission types find it hard to sustain that over an entire month or two. Especially at the big track. He has been charted broken equipment two weeks in a row. Not sure that that is about but you'd hope Montini would get his act together. No Phil tonight, so JJ takes over.

9 Velocity Headlight  draws poorly again because he takes the high tag. I simply don't get that strategy for a horse that was on a line bad last week and has virtually no chance to be claimed for 8 on his form and history.

RACE 2

1 Toy Is Ours took 3 tries to get back to racing for a purse. That made 4 races in a row he made a break. That is not good. He also adds lasix. I cannot see this one. Bad claim, and I think Carmen will bail and take the loss on this one soon. Can't get them all right.

2 Toga Town looked lame to me in his start before last, and couldn't even make the gate last time. I can't see him being dangerous as is.

3 Moonbeam Hall returns with a win 2 back and a bad post in his last where he was probably over his head anyway. He will have to be seen. I cut some slack to him because I respect Ben B's ability to tinker with one like this. However, he has had him a long time and not much has changed. If he looks like he always does, I will pass.

4 Top Dollar  made a break last time and was never in it at London. Per will drive him tonight, as he has before. I would guess this is some sort of test, test drive mission at this track to see if he is both viable and better over the track, and if some Per magic tinkering is needed. He is not impossible with this bunch, especially if the 8 blows up and isn't involved.

5 Most Wanted Lindy is 0 for 32 the last two years and seems a cheque getting bit player type who doesn't have the gusto in the stretch to get more at this age. Going to Flamboro didn't help him do better.

6 Blush and Crush  has a license to be very dangerous here. She made a blast move to the top last time and held off all but one who has been a winning machine of late, and this year. Post 6 favors her if she parades sound. She doesn't always do that. Assuming she does, she is a must use in the pick 5. You wont get the boxcar price she brought last week. That ship has sailed.

7 Chievous Cole has looked terribly lame in the starts I've seen him at this track lately. He went to London, and after one try at the Preferred. dove his tag down and was claimed off an easy win. He will have to be seen. I would be hard pressed to back him unless he looks better. He very likely wont make the gate on stride. He needed a month off between starts last time. That indicates an issue he has. You don't keep horses who can win races out of the box unless you have to.

8 Cracker Zack didn't perform for Ryan, and Johnson took him back. He will have to be seen. If he looks okay, he has a shot to take down the 10 or 6, the only two who look dangerous to me.

9 Girl Drama goes back to the only trainer who seems to be able to keep her together. He ups the tag slightly here, and gets the 9 hole, which probably doesn't matter as she sits way back either way. I don't think she can pick all of these up and probably gets 3rd or 4th coming late...to late.

10 Dirty Secret  comes in with 5 straight, the last 3 for Joe C, and she takes the high tag and gets the 10 hole for her trouble. Because so many of these look like they will run off the gate, or be held together and not go much, I could be persuaded to ignore the 10 post here and think this one almost clears before the turn, or makes front by the turn down the backside, and takes them all the way. Much of that depends on what the 8 does. I dont think the missed time is an issue. She has probably been trained hard in between and tuned up.

RACE 3

1 Intimidate dodges the best ones this time, and while he could be one of those again, at this stage, they are too much for him. I'm not fond of the rail at this track, and I'd probably go against this one here starting from it. He is likely to bring a short price. I will play against it, and him.

2 Olympic Son  couldn't have gotten a better trip last week, but he was no match for the winner, who sailed right by him. He meets him again, and others who look viable. I will go elsewhere. I think this level is too tough for him of late.

3 Cash for Gold was put on the front last week, and we see why that rarely happens. He was a borderline runaway and was spent as they turned for home. He looked good doing it though until he was winded. He is likely to get away mid pack this time, and gets a new driver. I could go back to him if the price is right, which it is likely to be.

4 Charlie Is a Joker had no shot his last two with those posts, but hasn't been very good either way. He will drop his bottom line here and make a big attempt at the bottom or close to it next time. Pass for me, and Mario, who took the other stable entrant.

5 Abc Muscles Boy was forced to try the best on the circuit, and he is overmatched with those based on his Pocono lines. These are more reasonable, but still a stretch. He is a player, but I'm on the fence on him.

6 Wild and Crazy Guy righted the ship on the class drop last week, and blew by them like they were tied to a pole. He seems very variable week to week and always has been. I will take a price on others and think he is maybe 2nd or 3rd here, but not the winner.

7 Stan the Man didn't get a good start from the rail last week, and that did him in when he had to pull first up. He isn't the bravest type when he doesn't have control. This field is a bit too deep for me to think he will take them down with that driver.

8 Etruscan Hanover looked off parading last time and jumped it off. He can get like that. He will have to be seen parading. I'm inclined to wait on him either way.

9 Fearless Man is 3rd back off the shelf and gets some class relief, but the toughest post. That makes this race interesting. The bias of this post and his style works against him finishing them off if he tries to control it.

RACE 4

1 Alexas Hope put in steps multiple times in the mile last time, but Randy got her around and she got up for 3rd. I will go elsewhere this week. She doesn't do enough.

2 Moremunkybusiness takes the lower tag and draws a better post this time. That puts her in play. I can give her a pass for starting poorly and having no shot to win last week. I can't give her a pass for not passing the rats and getting a small slice.

3 Watt a Funny Face comes back to the class where she is 2 for 2 and is likely to blast and try to wire them again. Mcnair this time. She is 9-1 ML? Who sits on her back here and can take her if she is tired from all the blasting? That is probably the winner.

4 Tigra Seelster blasted out from the 6 hole as the favorite last week, but could only get away 4th, as there were some speed demons to deal with. She latched on to live 2nd over cover and should have won off that trip, but couldn't reach the winner, who moved up and did well in that attempt. She appears very sharp and if she can gain the 2 hole on the 3's back, has a legit shot to get home first.

5 Darktwistedfantasy doesn't seem to have what it takes lately to go with them in the lane. She was really good earlier in the year, and might come back around. I will go to others in this spot. She is dangerous with her connections history of turning this type without warning. I will play against that happening tonight.

6 Shes a Maniac has been flat two weeks in a row, but she had the rail both starts. I can cut her some slack with that potential variable in play. With post 6, she is reasonable, but still a stretch. I'd probably use her in the pick 5.

7 Fire Watch got up for 3rd last week, and almost 2nd, but she seems to do that without threatening the winner every week. I'd think she is 3rd or 4th again here.

8 Donna Party got tortured and hung out last time from post 10, and also didn't look pretty trying it. She takes a slightly lower tag and draws a bit better, but she has the same speed merchant to deal with inside of her. Another day, if she looks better doing it here, I might go back to her. She would need a speed battle in front of her, and to lay off it herself, which is what I said last time, and she didn't do that then either.

9 Pretty Hot  met some tough customers her last two at Flamboro and was overmatched. She went a monster trip to win the start before that, and comes back tagged, but takes the high tag and gets the 9 hole for that protection. Randy sticks with Galucci. I will pass here on the tough start angle. Another who might prove me wrong if they battle and she lays off.

10 One Last Bono takes the high tag as she returns to claimers. As she seems to need to lead, I cant see how this trip works out for her and she has something left late.

RACE 5

1 Arrived Late draws better here, but at best I think he needs to hit bottom to have a shot. Even then, I'm unlikely to back him. He has never been good at this track facing horses that finish with more gusto than he does. He seems to be able to go as fast at Flamboro as he does here.

2 Next Thing Smoken was racing Open paces at Hoosier in late September and doing well. They are generally a tough bunch there, and he tried the top ones here, but couldn't go with them. He has tailed off since then, but gets in with a weak bunch here, relative to what he is capable of. I will list him to get beat, and take another on top, but he is certainly possible.

3 Darcee N  paced a decent mile last time to one who moved up and jogged, and another who moved up and won in a gritty manner, both on Saturday night. He doesn't start well, but at the right level, he can pass the right ones. There isn't much to like outside of him. I will take him on top, with the caveat that I need close to his ML of 9-2. 4-1 is my bottom limit. He needs the trip to go right, and you need price value to play those. It doesn't always go your way.

4 J Js Delivery removes lasix for his return, off two qualifiers and a trainer change. He was a nice 3yo, but has not made the transition well to aged ones. I like others, and will watch him.

5 Prince Clyde tripped out and won at the bottom last week. He was lucky in that the main contender was off a year and had a tough journey from post 10, and couldn't get there in time. He was beat if that one got loose earlier. A win is a win though. This isn't a tough rise, and his post is good again. He has a shot, but I like at least one better than him.

6 Lovedancinwithyou is not doing enough at this level for me to back him. He drops the win off here and if I like what I see, I might go to him next time for a price. Pass and watch tonight.

7 Uf Bettors Hanover was flying late last time, but had post 10 and couldn't get there in time. He rises here, but not by much, and these are possible to take. I would hope the price is there to consider him. He has a history of winning at a big price.

8 Bs Tyrrific paced a strong mile for Weller, and he moves up slightly here and gets the 8 hole. That might stunt his progress. He starts slow anyway, so it might not be the strike against him that it is to many. Minor shot if he picks up live flow.

9 Shadow Margeaux loses Mcnair to his dads horse, and combined with post 9 and the move up makes me go elsewhere. I'd think he is looking to find the proper claiming level at some point.

10 Three of Clubs was 2nd off the shelf last time and very live. He probably goes to the back of the bus here. I have to pass and wait. If he holds his soundness, he is a decent play next time if he races as good this time as he did last week.

RACE 6

1 Shestherealthing continues to finish with horrid last quarters, and only once was that good enough to win a race. I cant back her. I think she had a fluky night. She is a bit of a live wire, and leaving from the rail is not going to help her.

2 Mostinterestingman broke his maiden at this track, but has had trouble doing enough to win nw2, with the trainer driving most of the time. I like others better. I'd have to see more from him and a professional driver to make me go to him.

3 Missedbyaday took heavy action at the windows last week, but backed off the gate and was no factor. This is Per's 2nd try with him. I will wait at least one more and hope he puts him in play here and then lists a catch driver next time. He shows flashes of speed at times, but needs to put it together.

4 Sunrise Avenue had every chance last time, but she didn't do enough. I could see her turning that around tonight. This is a very soft bunch.

5 Work That Magic shows talent at times, but also soreness and she will not go with that. If somehow she looks better this time parading, I'd go to her if the price doesn't reflect her improved appearance.

6 Withahearttomatch was late to the races and shows no speed in the last quarter. I cant back her with what I see. Based on her breeding, I'd think she is off to the breeding shed in a month or two. They probably hope to get a faster record soon, but if not, then not.

7 True Muscle has been horrible for a long time. Cant touch her until I see something positive.

8 Silky Flashy Nfast took advantage of a very soft bunch of maidens to use her stakes experience to handle them. She has been freshened up for the winter, and can probably double up on this mediocre bunch.

9 Little Stuie  shows me nothing to suggest he can do much from the 9 hole, or even a better hole for that matter.

10 Archery blasted out from the 10 hole last time in his first start at this track, and he spit the bit coming for home. He did stay trotting. I will watch this time. Hopefully he draws better next time.

RACE 7

1 Levy Taylore paced a decent mile last time, to a class dropping winner who tripped out and a former top Stakes horse who was class diving. Post 1 would lead me to go elsewhere, but if he does okay I'd probably go to this one next time.

2 They Call Me Gordy didnt do enough last time off a very easy trip. I gave him the benefit of the doubt then. Tonight, pass.

3 Smarter Yet  closed with the pack last time and drops slightly here. These are pretty soft, he has a minor shot for a price.

4 Big Petes Style blasted out from a good post last week and looked to come up the inside to outpace the winner, but was never getting by that one. However, it was a good effort and wake up call for him. I wouldn't take a short price on him, which he probably brings, but he has to be considered a contender.

5 Hail the Taxi closed up okay with the pack last time to nab 5th from a 9 hole start. He is 1 for 42 the last two years, that win coming at KD. Can't back him for the win.

6 Crafty Master takes a substantial class drop from his last 2 at this track, gets the best post and Trevor. My top call.

7 Hickory Terrific ships in from Northfield, where he wasn't winning at the bottom class there, which has mostly horses that wouldn't win a 5 claimer at Flamboro, with some exceptions, like this one.

8 St Lads Lotto  has suspect but okay form. He is one of many, but also one that pops every now and then.

9 Cams Tux was an early scratch.

10 Ideal Jet  draws the 10 hole but gets 9 with the scratch of Cams Tux. Not enough for me. Pass.

RACE 8

1 A Boy Named Suuzz needs class relief and gets it. However, he hasnt looked sharp lately, and while he isnt without a shot, he will have to overcome the early energy he will have to expend to push the rail and then possibly retake. I think that gets him beat by at least 2 of these when it matters.

2 Machapelo  shows me nothing that would lead me to back him, and even a drop to 8k might not be enough.

3 Vital Sign is the one I will call in the upset. he has three 1's and a 9 on the page his last 4 starts off the layoff. He is just on the fringes, but hopefully can be up in the top 5 here and pick up live cover. Its a stab to go against the 6, who looks cinchy here. I can't find any others to back. He has just gotten closer each time. I'd want odds, likely 10-1 or higher.

4 Chosen Hombre doesn't show me anything to suggest he is anything more than a bit player at this level. He was a bad claim, but might have to go in for 10 to do some damage.

5 Raging Fingers was outpaced for 10 last time, when he had every chance to win. I think he is over his head.

6 Lisvinnie looks like a cinch here, but stranger things have happened. I will go to another, but its a stab. If he maintains how he has been, he is untouchable in with this bunch. The new barn is a concern. Johnson seems to have him figured out and that sometimes is a difference maker.

7 New York Nightmare is pacing solid miles, but is no match for the one who beat him last time. I cant back him when he doesn't do enough to win.

RACE 9

1 Tony Soprano made the right move at the right time last week, and simply gained control as most of the contenders were spent or off stride. Like many in this field, he is wildly inconsistent. He is one that could have a lot of trouble with post 1 if his history of bad behavior holds up.

2 Marquis Volo jumped it off last time and had trouble coming through until 2 back. I haven't liked what I've seen from him, and as he takes long breaks when he goes on the shelf, I suspect its hard to keep him racing and he will probably go the wrong way rather than the right one now. Pass.

3 Mystery Bet was on a full gallop coming to the gate last time. I will pass on him. Once he goes bad, he stays bad for a while. If I'm wrong, he can beat me.

4 P L Hercules was solid on the class rise last time, flying up for 4th. He didn't attempt control last time, but he is likely to go back to that strategy here. These are softer, top to bottom than that field was, even though its the same class and purse.

5 Little Red Chev comes off two 9 holes and some decent form, including a closing 2nd last week. She is in the mix and because she can leave when asked, could bag a nice easy trip. Shot.

6 Escuela takes a big class rise here. I don't see her ability matching up with most of these, although her sharpness is better than most. That big late move probably wont pick these up like it did last time against far easier.

7 Zagster is not one I am fond of from what I have seen of him on the track lately. I will wait for some sign of a turnaround in how he travels. He ran last time and that didn't surprise me. He does have some talent.

8 Rockin With Dewey has gained control in two consecutive starts from good posts and simply stepped up the pace when she needed to and was asked. This is a much stiffer bunch and the post negates any idea to try those tactics now. Pass.

9 April Rose the wildcard in the bunch. Post 9, Pocono shipper, Oakes to Allard, fast mile followed by so so effort. She will get her class tested here. I think she will fail that test. Allard is batting zero in the win department lately.

10 Georgies Pockets took 36k out of the Autumn Series. A very nice score for a mid level Grassroots horse. Now, he has to wade into the deep condition waters. With post 10 tonight, I'd suspect they want to see if he can brush late and keep up. No shot tonight from this post and class rise.

RACE 10

1 Shippen Out ships in off the claim for Allard. Of course, this one we know well. Not the most determined type, but he does do well when the trip works out and he is at the right level. This field isn't tough, top to bottom, but I will have to see where he is at before I put money on the table. Lets see him parade. The rail wont help, but it wont kill his chances either. He has never been the type to blast and take prisoners. He shows a break at the top of the stretch last time. Because he comes from Allard, that would concern me. He must be seen.

2 Dinner At the Met is one J Mac was not swayed enough with to stick to as Joe C arrives. I like Carmen's as well, and I know this horse from the States. I will have to see him, but I think he is over his head with these.

3 Dalton Did It hooked a couple of tough ones last time, and trying to keep up with them took the steam out of him. I'm on the fence as to whether he is a 20 or 15. As I am leaning to 15, I will pass on him tonight and watch.

4 Needlecrest  didn't look like he had any front end speed, but as has been said before, any horse can be made to gun. Most don't, because they stop like rats when they are made to spend the energy early, like this one did last time. I remain convinced he is one level too high. Pass for now.

5 Jenkins Creek bagged 4th money in a 6 horse field last time, but the two behind him were not pretty to say the least. Pass on him. Not sure if I will back him on the way back down, but I am certain I wouldn't in this class as is.

6 York Seelster  paced a strong mile last time after starting from the rail then moving towards the turn, taking over late and barely holding on. I would think with this post, and his history, he is aiming for the front this time. He can be picked off if he tries that, but he looks like the one to me.

7 Shock N Rock seems to have lost form in his last two, which have been terrible. He would have to do a lot better to get me interested. I think he is one level up from where he needs to be.

8 Crocadile Canyon was laid off in the summer, after going to Hoosier where the purses are good but the relative competition is much softer than here. He needed 4 qualifiers to get back to the races, the last without lasix and back on Team Z. I want to see him on the track, but he is possible if he shows me the right things.

9 Panedictine post will do this one in. I cant see him from the hole he starts from here.

10 Lonewolf Currier still dont like what I see. Total Pass.