Overall Bets: $ $
Best Win Bet: $10 win on Solar Sister in the 6th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win on Second Sister in the 2nd
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Reverend Hanover in the 3rd
Best Show Bet: $10 show on Magic Madness in the 5th
Best exactor bet: $2 exa box 6-7-8 in the 5th
Longshot exactor bet: $4 exa pw 7 with 1,2,5,6,10 in the 8th $20
Best Exotic Bet: : $1 pick 4... 2,3 with 6,7,8 with 10 with 3,7,8 in the 4th
Worst Bet: Stubborn Belle to win. $10
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Race 1
Bets
BistrobistroTaj $4 to win
Meadow Seelster $4 to win
BistrobistroTAj has always impressed me as a filly who has something and will put it together at some point. Her last was okay, first start of the year after making the final of the grassroots last year and going off as the fave who was already used up and ran. CC drives her 2nd time, and I will go with her in the upset call, getting a price because of the form and class of the two I play against. She, like the field, got blitzed by a crazy fast erratic Mystery Bet in the lane last time. That was obviously a test drive for this assignment.
Meadow Seelster has very good tactical gate speed and is learning to carry it. Not sure she is up to the challenge of some in here, yet....but, if they blow up, she is as good as the rest. Playable if things go her way at the big price. Fillion took my 3rd pick, but that might be with a view to the future, not the present.
All That Sparkles certainly has upside. Fast miles and Fillion chose her over one he has done well with. Post 10 is a stickler, and she only has to make the final. Not likely he guns her at the leaders down the backside. I am watching her to see if she is viable for the final...assuming she gets there. She is still a 7 time maiden facing a Breeders Crown caliber mare. Call for 3rd tonight. No play.
Play Against:
Stubborn Belle returns off the shelf for team Bax and P Mac. My experience with many 2 year old turned 3 year old trotting fillies is that most don't come back the same when they have been raced as hard as this girl was. Riveting Rosie was one of those for this combo last year. Eventually, some do come around. For tonight, there are others in here to take her down, so, I go against her. Even if she is good tonight, she is beatable.
Battle Mage has been going fast miles over the Big M, but this is a different track and probably a tougher bunch at the top end of the field. Her last was a 32-1 score. I am not sold yet. I will play against her as well.
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Race 2
Bets
Second Sister $10 to win
Second Sister Shows a fast win in the Grassroots final last year after which she was shut down after a compact and tidy 8 race campaign. They must think she is going to be top shelf. She wintered in Florida and trotted a sharp first start of the year from the back of the bus to close up on the pack. Tonight, she is being raced. Price will be very good with the chalk likely getting hammered. I will play that angle. That one wont be easy to take down. They all go down. This one is good enough to do it if it is doable. I don't think overall speed is an issue. It should be there.
Juanitas Fury banked 300k last year, winning her share and mostly picking up smaller ones with tough company when they blew up. She is legit and her first start back was also very good. I suspect she isn't going to go forward like some of these might, but she is well bred and she is in the mix. I might play her in the final if she shows me she has made the transition from 2 to 3 well. Tonight, I just watch her. Top 3 call, but not for the win tonight.
Play Against:
Danielle Hall is obviously the one to beat. If she races back to how she was last year, she dominates this bunch. But, two things. First, many simply don't. Second, this elim goes for 25k. She has little incentive to win the race if 2nd is locked up. We have seen that from Jody a few times. She could beat me, but I will make my play that she isn't racing to win tonight.
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Race 3
Bets
Reverend Hanover $10 to win,place
Closing Credits $2 to win
Reverend Hanover This is a tough bunch. He has 2 qualifiers and a race under his belt now. He has taken 2 seconds off each time. I'm sure Casie and connections want to see him show the type of speed he will need for the big dances. I could see him pacing in 48 and a piece tonight if the fractions are there and the weather is warm. He is no cinch. But, a good play.
Closing Credits Just keeps getting better and better. He has one monster move and he is learning to carry it even farther. He is the typical Rambaran. Some of them just get better with age. He could be one of those. If the top choice bombs again, like last time, he could pay a healthy price.
Pierce Hanover
is a solid colt, no doubt about that. But I am just not impressed or sold that he goes forward when the better ones do, like my top choice. I certainly wouldn't play against him tonight, but that time will come and I'm watching for it. I don't think he is a high end stakes colt this year. Lets see if I'm right. The top choice has already proven he is likely that.
Play Against:
None
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Race 4
Bets
Southwind Mischief $6 to win
Capela $6 to win
Southwind Mischief
is like many of Coleman's the past week; went an okay first trip and didn't appear to be all out to win. She did have Solar Sister in front of her, and that appears to be a tough one she avoids this time. She likely needs to step forward 2 seconds tonight to take down the win. At this point, with the way she finished off last year, which is to say...very poorly, and her iffy effort first out--which she gets a pass on if she steps up tonight--I suspect she is being raced to win. If she doesn't show more, she is likely a grassroots filly tops. I will play her because of her connections and her past history before the tail off.
Capela took down a Gold in her only win last year, but had tipped her hand that she was that type before that. That got her into the Superfinal, where she was the chalk and was only beat two lengths after a tough trip. She has been raced easy, twice at Yonkers to get ready for these, and she is likely being sent out of there tonight. Top contender. She is 7 for 9 on the ticket in her career so far. She makes the tri either way, and could get her picture taken. O'Sullivan sends them out ready. We all know that.
Code One Hanover hung badly last time in her 2nd start of the year. She did take down the Superfinal last year, but at huge odds. I'm not certain she makes the transition to 3 all that well. Darling's horses are not racing good right now. Maybe there was some sickness. I don't know. I can't rate her better than 3rd here, and I will pass on playing her.
Play Against:
Wrangler Magic Scored at boxcars twice last year, and shows back up with Fillion choosing Moreau's filly from the 10 hole. Normally, that wouldn't be a big deal, but Fillion is not exclusive to Moreau anymore, and he makes a statement here. I heard that statement. She is not as good as most of these. He is picking against his dad here. He only does that when he knows they are not up to the competition.
MsMacNCheese Draws post 10 and needs to make the final. Fillion left her on the rail last time and risked getting buried, but lucked out. Tonight, up the rail again, and look to get in the final and draw better. Tough bunch. Not for the win...tonight.
Southwind Ginger In a strange turn of events, McNair is not named on this filly, who he has done well with, and with Adams, who is feeding him cinch winners just about every card. These aren't soft. I can't play her from the 9 hole for the win against these. She will have to be seen. She is an overnight mare facing Gold winners. Lots of them. She got picked up last time in the lane and was not competitive with Stakes fillies last year.
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Race 5
Bets
Magic Madness $8 to win, $10 to show
Youre Majestic $4 to win
$2 exa box 6-7-8
Magic Madness Is a late blooming 4yo who just seems to be getting better every time. Nothing wrong with how good she raced last time, getting beat by a sharp older mare who wired them from the 10 hole. She stuck right to her and CC didn't gut her to try and take her down, when it was unlikely she would anyway. That was her first start at this level. She can get it done this time if she duplicates that effort. 54 and a piece likely wins this, and she is going that now steady. Top call.
Youre Majestic is one I played last time. she didn't get away well, and that appeared to be Fillion's intention. She was then mired in horrible traffic but got up for 3rd after going 3 deep in the 3rd quarter in 27 and change. They were long gone on her then. That was her first start of the year, and she was very highly regarded last year. I will stick with her for now. Minor shot.
Theresademoninme
has a shot if my top choice doesn't fire and others dont step up. He is
capable enough and can leave to make his own trip. He has trouble
lasting to the wire at this level, but he is right there if they fail.
Price would have to be there. I will just watch him again tonight. He is
on the radar.
Play Against:
I Am Special was back to her bad behaving ways last time, and these are not that soft. Moreau's trotters crapped out last night. He seems to get a few out of them, then they bomb.
Michaels Turn shot up the class ladder, each time showing issues that would likely surface when he couldn't simply rely on talent and a huge speed edge. His slow and iffy starts, and Drury needing to hold him together while he goes forward seems to be rooted in how fast he can actually go. I think that is 55 or just barely more and that is just not quite good enough to beat some of these.
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Race 6
Bets
Solar Sister $10 to win
$6 exa 10-1
$3 exa 1-10
$3 exa 1,3,10
Solar Sister Towers over this bunch, even from post 10. She is a proven Grand Circuit contender last year, bred to be the best, and beat lesser last time from post 10. She will get respect if she moves early, which is likely. My 2nd choice is dangerous, especially starting 9 spots inside her, but she doesn't appear to be the caliber of this one. Top call and best bet.
Business As Usual cannot be discounted when you consider her connections, her driver, her form and her post. She got it done against a huge bias last time first off the shelf, when many of Colemans have not. I just dont think she is up to the top ones level yet, and I will play her for a solid 2nd.
Twin B Honour is plausible. She has impressed me, even though she was clearly overmatched in her last few. She tries hard, and has talent. Post is favorable this time. She can leave a ton, and could trip out and be there if either or both the top 2 choices don't have it tonight.
Play Against:
None
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Race 7
Bets
Camaes Fellow $4 to win
Captive Audience $4 to win
Camaes Fellow
is very much a known quantity. Right to the chooch and go as far at that takes him. Last week he had friends who also wanted that very badly, and a 26.4 3rd quarter did him in. He is likely to get it slightly softer here, and I think he can go all the way. He is probably good value tonight. These aren't quite as tough as he has faced lately, but still no slouches. Top call in a close one.
Captive Audience Got a perfect trip and steer last time and had the race won, but hung. He likely can get that again, and he does have back class. Although he is a hanger, these are softer than most he usually faces. He beat all but Luckbewithyou last time, and he is a Breeders Crown winner and high end animal. One more chance tonight.
Melmerby Beach put it together last time, and moves up to face a tough bunch, relative to what he has ever beaten. He is likely this good, but maybe not yet. He could certainly prove me wrong, and I expect if he stays sound he is a legit Preferred horse in the near future. I will watch him tonight to see how he stacks up.
Play Against:
Lucan Hanover just isnt the horse he was at 3, and while the flashes are still there, most nights he just isn't good enough. He likely draws another short price on the drop, and I will take that action. He will have company and competition if he wants to blast and attempt control tonight. Cant see how that works out favorably for him.
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Race 8
Bets
Grande Seelster $10 to win,place, show
Grande Seelster wanted control last time, but Hunch Man was taking no prisoners and others wanted that front end too. He couldn't do enough then, but he dives tonight and he is tight and racing good. He is the one to beat. A repeat of his last from the 10 hole on this curcuit crushes this bunch.
Grab bag As is the norm for this class, and host of several who have been good before and could be good tonight are dangerous, but unlikely. I wouldn't touch any of them, nor play against their likely inflated price, considering who the top 2 are and what they are going to bring tonight price wise.
Play Against:
Prince Clyde Was as good as he can be last time. Gunned to the top from the 10 hole, and went all the way to the wire while being picked off by a very large class dropper who was on his life to mow him down. However, my experience with this horse is he goes bad as fast as he goes good, and with everyone seeing what I did last time and jumping on him from the rail, I will play against him. I think my top choice is just better than him and will show that down the lane.
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Race 9
Bets
Rubis Prescott $4 to win
Marlee B $4 to win
Rubis Prescott Is the logical play here. Dropping a bit, and she can get the front, with Jody, who likes the front, and has done well with her before. She is beatable, but she is also tough at this level with a good post and good enough form. One of 3 I think will be vying.
Marlee B went a crazy front end trip last time, taking on all comers and no prisoners, and as predicted, even though she was dropping, she wasn't popping. She has a history of that. She also has a history of turning it right back around and biting you the next week. The price is right tonight, I use her. Trevor had 5 that night, but the drive on her wasn't his best work. She can do better, and so can he.
Empress Deo made the huge 3rd quarter move last time and was on top mid lane, only to be mowed down easily by a sharp mare. She looks good on paper, but her back half was pretty suspect. I think she is getting hammered again tonight, and I'm not sold she justifies that. I want to see her again. I will watch closely to see what she is about and what I can do with her going forward. She has to do more.
Play Against:
Kiss Me Or Not appears to be class dropping, but she isn't. She is just back down and out of the jail of the high end mares she was never going to touch. But now, she has chased them and her good spirit and winning ways are a month ago. She takes the bigger money tonight, she is bad value against some who have beaten better than her in the present.
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Race 10
Bets
Yucatan $4 to win
Bilbo Hanover $4 to win
Yucatan is a hunch play for me tonight. He jumps way up, and his form isn't fantastic anyway. But, he has competed well with these before when good, and some of these are very suspect. Minor longshot play for me.
Bilbo Hanover
is like most of these, he has issues. Soundness, a penchant for running when it gear, to hang at times at the wire. He drops, he is fit, paced a back half in 53 flat last time and sub 1:50, and Phil does well with him. I use him, but the price has to be right. Looking for 7-2.
Winds of Change Would be one I would play if I thought he was fit and had a driver tonight. He towers over this bunch currently on talent. He has crazy speed and has faced the best.Jones doesn't thrill me as a trainer, and he burns huge chalk money all the time sending out horses who aren't ready to compete. Pass and watch tonight and I will call him for 3rd. I want to see what he looks like on the track. He has been a crazy runaway in the past, and I'm hoping they have that problem fixed now.
Play Against:
Rock Me Amastreos a complete turnaround horse for Carmen, now moves back up to face much tougher than the also rans he has bossed around twice. He likely still takes a lot of win money, and I think he gets swamped by a few in here when the money is on the line.
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Race 11
Bets
None
Thinking Out Loud One of many very nice horses in here. He is in the mix. Like others, the layoff concerns me. These ones go all out the whole way. When you haven't raced in 6 months, that isn't easy to get up to speed with. I think Randy protects him. Contender. No play
Vegas Vacation same comments as above, but he has been off almost 2 years and has never faced older gritty horses like this. Another one to watch. Contender, No play.
Polak A is prepping for next weeks Molson Pace, and will likely be tried, but not used hard. He could fall into the right trip, but he is more likely in need of a race.
Nickle Bag is hard to take..and leave. His grit and finish always make him dangerous, as we saw when he was ignored and swooped them. But these are so tough, its tough to think he could be as good as all of them. Watching. I'm not sure where he stands with a bunch of superstars like this.
Play Against:
None
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Race 12
Bets
Boomboom Ballykeel $4 to win
Boomboom Ballykeel gets the lukewarm call from me. I don't like playing him as a rule, as he just seems to find ways to get beat. But, the price might be right and he is fairly sharp. He is possible. I'd want at least 5-1 on him here. Not sure I get that. Depends on how much play the 2 takes.
The others in any race like this, you can make all sorts of cases for and against the whole lot of them. I wont bother. I will live and die with a small play on my top choice and look at the rest closely for an angle in the future. Many of these know how to fail. Well.
Play Against:
None
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