1 Trot
4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1Fairly wide open, with 3 or 4 legitimate contenders, 2 or 3 iffy ones who are viable price stabs and the 3 to the outside who look like
they are not close to being contenders at this time but possibly have future upside. The post parade will be key and there is also the factor of several probably jumping it off either before or on the gate and going around the first turn.
1 Stormont Fullalife is a 4yo maiden with 13 tries under his belt. He generally starts very slow and the one time on the page he tried to leave
he got parked and paid for it late. He does have some late speed and if he can get away in the top 6 and save a little, he has a legit shot at making the ticket. He would need a lot to go right to beat them all, but it's not impossible.
2 Wheeler Seelster made one start at 2 for team Green, and he trotted his own mile in 58.3 then was shut down. He returned two weeks
ago after an okay qualifier but drew the 9 hole and then made an early break, and trotted evenly from the half after that. He draws better
this time and has shown already he has leaving ability. If he can keep it together and get ahead of the contenders, he has a shot to score here.
3 The Magic Within is a 5yo Archangel mare who grinds it out at this stage for Gois. She has 6 starts on the page and she has been 40 to 60-1
in all of those. She trots in the 2.01 to 2.02 range every start, but now the weather is warming and they will start to go faster. Will she? It's
doubtful. She does have sneaky good form and she can leave. In a race with a lot of suspect ones, she plays as a viable longshot. At least she
can leave and does not show any breaks.
4 Upgrade is a 3yo filly by Green Manalishi, who they paid 300k US for at Harrisburg. She went winless in 8 starts at 2, but did trot in 57.2
and pick up some small slices in some grassroots races before being put on the shelf. She has a deep pedigree, hence the big ticket price
at auction, notably her dam is a half sister to the dam of Southwind Frank, with her 2nd dam the dam of Cayster, Giant Hit and Program Speed, all top shelf stakes winners. Matt Bax qualified her but he hands the lines to Ratchford, who drove her several times last year. She closed in 27.4 in that return qualifier, and she, on paper, looks like the best one in this very soft spot.
5 Thor B Good is a 3yo first time starter for co owner and trainer Bossence who qualified with Upgrade and they finished together, both closing fast. Drury picks up the drive here. He will have to be seen. His sire, My Mvp, sires lots of good ones, but also a lot of them with lameness and breaking issues. He arrives on the scene with the hopples on, so that variable has already been sorted out.
6 Steinbeck has disappointed so far for his connections, who bred him and likely expected more at auction, so they retained him, and then
raced him last year with mixed and poor results. After 3 starts, they laid him off, but at least he won a race before that and showed some flashes
of speed. Before laying him off, they tried qualifying him with hopples on, and while he stayed flat, he came home in 33.4. With two returning
qualifiers this winter, he has kept the hopples on, stayed way back of the pack, but trotted home fast both times. He has some ability, and
when he shows some of that is anybody's guess, but he is one to watch. He will have to be seen on the track first. This year he gets the catch driver, so that is a plus. He was 18 lengths back of Upgrade and Thor B Good in that last qualifier, so that is a big negative.
7 Simply Chaotic is a 3yo gelding by Trixton for The Stable. He made 3 starts at 2, the first of which was in a high end stakes race, and
he doesn't look like he was ready to go at that level, then regressed badly off of that. He must have showed something to suggest he has
that kind of talent, as many Trixton's do. This year, upon return, which is two qualifiers and a return race, he has been teamed with J Mac,
who is much more conservative than many guys with this type. Last year he had the hopples, but this year he has gone without them and stayed flat. He seems to be progressing now and met a tough one in his return race. He has betting value here if they hammer Upgrade and play a couple of others who look farther advanced than him. He is another that will have to be seen. He was pretty green parading
last time. He had every chance to pass horses and get up for 2nd last time, but he both ran in and hung at the same time and missed the ticket.
8 Goldie Lux Hanover was ready early last year, as most of Toscani's 2yo's are, as he is on record as not babying them. As such, she made
breaks and was shut down early. As a Tactical Landing, you would expect growing pains and some kind of improvement as she goes along, as many of his do and as he did as a racehorse. Upon return this winter, with a professional driver she retains here, she has left well, kept trotting and finished reasonably. However, she draws outside this time. I'm inclined to watch her here, but she has upside going forward
with more experience, time, and a better post. She is a good mover and seems to now be learning to settle down and not gun. Lets see how she progresses. There is upside here.
9 My Classy Queen draws the 9 hole here, shows breaks and distanced finishes all over the page, and currently, is not one I could back.
She will have to do something to inspire some hope and confidence.
10 Ilovemesometacos is a 2nd time starter who loses J Mac here to an obvious contender with a better post. He was a cheap yearling, and
he races here for Hughes, who is a fine horseman, but races a lot of no chance longshots and project horses at this point. He seems to have
ability, but today is not the day he gets to show it. He is worth watching going forward for when he might develop into something and
still bring a big price.
2 Trot
5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2
There are three very logical favorites, with Kinnder Icecube the short priced one, Goal Digger the next likely option and Check Master
lurking if one blows up and or the other doesn't show up. Then there is Capitalist, who could be the one, or could be no good. The other
two don't look good enough. Have to see them. Whoever is having the better night is likely the winner.
1 Check Master showed little to nothing at all at 3, but like many of Hollands, he sticks with them and they come around eventually.
Myfriendjose being a good current example of that but there are countless other examples of that pattern.
Coming back this season, he was eased off the gate, went around clean as the false 8-5 favorite but never threatened. Off of that he went off as a very lukewarm favorite two weeks later, left better, sat a trip and pounced late to break his maiden.
2 Lookstobemagic wired them last week at London. Her time was very good, which would certainly play with these, also considering
that she trotted her own back half in 59.1. That was significant improvement in time as she returned to the races after almost
7 months off. She did show some grit, winning last year parked the mile at Dresden, which is tough enough for a 2yo filly to get around even off an easy inside trip. Other than that win, she shows 3 breaks in 3 races last year around the B tracks.
Perhaps she has just matured. Or, the addition of trotting hopples has kept her steadier. Either way, she looks like a prospect as she switches to this track now.
3 Lmc Double Bubble is a fts sent out by Pat Hudon, who is very patient with the young ones, and has had this ones brother,
whom he is currently racing now on the comeback trail. It is impossible to access how ready this one is to do any damage off those slow non competitive qualifying miles, although he did show a 28 second quarter in each of them. He has some speed.
I will watch him this time. Archangel's, especially the young ones, can be tricky and then just see the light.
4 Zillennial, as young trotters go, is very steady and consistent. To date, he has only missed a cheque in one lifetime start when he drew the 9 hole at Mohawk and then he came late to get 6th. Otherwise, he leaves well and tries hard.
8 Goldie Lux Hanover was ready early last year, as most of Toscani's 2yo's are, as he is on record as not babying them. As such, she made
breaks and was shut down early. As a Tactical Landing, you would expect growing pains and some kind of improvement as she goes along, as many of his do and as he did as a racehorse. Upon return this winter, with a professional driver she retains here, she has left well, kept trotting and finished reasonably. However, she draws outside this time. I'm inclined to watch her here, but she has upside going forward
with more experience, time, and a better post. She is a good mover and seems to now be learning to settle down and not gun. Lets see how she progresses. There is upside here.
9 My Classy Queen draws the 9 hole here, shows breaks and distanced finishes all over the page, and currently, is not one I could back.
She will have to do something to inspire some hope and confidence.
10 Ilovemesometacos is a 2nd time starter who loses J Mac here to an obvious contender with a better post. He was a cheap yearling, and
he races here for Hughes, who is a fine horseman, but races a lot of no chance longshots and project horses at this point. He seems to have
ability, but today is not the day he gets to show it. He is worth watching going forward for when he might develop into something and
still bring a big price.
2 Trot
5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2
There are three very logical favorites, with Kinnder Icecube the short priced one, Goal Digger the next likely option and Check Master
lurking if one blows up and or the other doesn't show up. Then there is Capitalist, who could be the one, or could be no good. The other
two don't look good enough. Have to see them. Whoever is having the better night is likely the winner.
1 Check Master showed little to nothing at all at 3, but like many of Hollands, he sticks with them and they come around eventually.
Myfriendjose being a good current example of that but there are countless other examples of that pattern.
Coming back this season, he was eased off the gate, went around clean as the false 8-5 favorite but never threatened. Off of that he went off as a very lukewarm favorite two weeks later, left better, sat a trip and pounced late to break his maiden.
Since then, at nw2, this class, he has gradually improved his form and speed, winning two starts back.
Last week he was back in this class, but the depth of the field seemed much tougher, and he was only a bit player. He was brought to the
outside like he was going to brush to the top, but he never went forward and faded late. You could make an argument that Kinnder Icecube
and Goal Digger look better than him at this point and a couple of others have a shot too. I like others. He seems to need the right trip
now that they have toughened up as he has risen in class.
2 Kinnder Icecube has a similar profile to Check Master. Not much young, minor showing at 3, but has come to play this year.
Last time, Moore handed the lines over to J Mac, he left, followed the winner who had a class edge, and held 2nd, well clear of Check Master. His good leaving ability is a big plus here, and he is very consistent, in that he has hit the ticket in 8 of 13 starts in the last
two years. However, unlike others, he has not won this class yet. He did trot in 56.2 last time, and that shows an edge on others. If
you back him here, you are likely taking 3-5 with his form, good post and J Mac back calling the shots. That looks like bad value to me.
3 Southview Aviator by Muscle Mass is a bit of a late bloomer, being 5 now, but he has won 7 lifetime starts, although none at this track.
He has had his chances this winter here. In his defense, he had to start out at nw3, which currently is way over his head, but as they are
short horses, as this class tonight shows, they have written an ae, nw per start class to let him in where he fits. Since he has tried these, he
been a bit player. He is a decent leaver and he can sit 3rd or 4th in this race, and if the two likely faves make a mistake, he is possible to
just be in a good position to take advantage of that. Otherwise, he is hunting 3rd or 4th money.
4 Happy Angel beat maidens two starts back by blasting out to the top, going a slow middle half and coming home fast enough to hold off any challengers. Seven days later, on the rise to nw2, this class, he had to work for the lead, got there, then blew up in the lane and now has missed a month. His overall times are way too slow to go with the top 3 contenders in here, and even if one blows up, the other two are still there. He has to show more to be viable with these.
5 Capitalist is the wildcard in here. Team Green rarely keep around a young horse that they bought and didn't make it by the time
the stakes races are over for them. This one even was vet scratched lame last spring, eleven months ago now. He qualified slow about a
month ago, then raced well, making an eye catching 3 wide move on the turn to only finish 3rd by half a length to the winner, trotting in 28 flat. Can he do that again? He now is not as fresh, and vet scratch lame is vet scratch lame. He has to be seen parading, but
he seems to have ability, which is probably why Green retained him to see if he can sell him for what he thinks he is worth.
6 Goal Digger showed a lot of promise, relative to these types in early winter when he won in 55.4 after trotting a long way on the lead
in the Harvest Series final and finishing 3rd in 55.2. He made a break in his next start and then turned up sick and was laid off. Coming
back fairly quickly with a decent qualifier he made a break late in the mile in the race won by Check Master at this level. He came right back
seven days later and left out, followed, and was 2nd, only beat a nose. He isn't the most reliable, but he fits and seems to be heading to
winning form. He has a legit shot and is likely 2nd favorite to Kinnder Icecube. He did run in just enough last time to get beat on the line
2 Kinnder Icecube has a similar profile to Check Master. Not much young, minor showing at 3, but has come to play this year.
Last time, Moore handed the lines over to J Mac, he left, followed the winner who had a class edge, and held 2nd, well clear of Check Master. His good leaving ability is a big plus here, and he is very consistent, in that he has hit the ticket in 8 of 13 starts in the last
two years. However, unlike others, he has not won this class yet. He did trot in 56.2 last time, and that shows an edge on others. If
you back him here, you are likely taking 3-5 with his form, good post and J Mac back calling the shots. That looks like bad value to me.
3 Southview Aviator by Muscle Mass is a bit of a late bloomer, being 5 now, but he has won 7 lifetime starts, although none at this track.
He has had his chances this winter here. In his defense, he had to start out at nw3, which currently is way over his head, but as they are
short horses, as this class tonight shows, they have written an ae, nw per start class to let him in where he fits. Since he has tried these, he
been a bit player. He is a decent leaver and he can sit 3rd or 4th in this race, and if the two likely faves make a mistake, he is possible to
just be in a good position to take advantage of that. Otherwise, he is hunting 3rd or 4th money.
4 Happy Angel beat maidens two starts back by blasting out to the top, going a slow middle half and coming home fast enough to hold off any challengers. Seven days later, on the rise to nw2, this class, he had to work for the lead, got there, then blew up in the lane and now has missed a month. His overall times are way too slow to go with the top 3 contenders in here, and even if one blows up, the other two are still there. He has to show more to be viable with these.
5 Capitalist is the wildcard in here. Team Green rarely keep around a young horse that they bought and didn't make it by the time
the stakes races are over for them. This one even was vet scratched lame last spring, eleven months ago now. He qualified slow about a
month ago, then raced well, making an eye catching 3 wide move on the turn to only finish 3rd by half a length to the winner, trotting in 28 flat. Can he do that again? He now is not as fresh, and vet scratch lame is vet scratch lame. He has to be seen parading, but
he seems to have ability, which is probably why Green retained him to see if he can sell him for what he thinks he is worth.
6 Goal Digger showed a lot of promise, relative to these types in early winter when he won in 55.4 after trotting a long way on the lead
in the Harvest Series final and finishing 3rd in 55.2. He made a break in his next start and then turned up sick and was laid off. Coming
back fairly quickly with a decent qualifier he made a break late in the mile in the race won by Check Master at this level. He came right back
seven days later and left out, followed, and was 2nd, only beat a nose. He isn't the most reliable, but he fits and seems to be heading to
winning form. He has a legit shot and is likely 2nd favorite to Kinnder Icecube. He did run in just enough last time to get beat on the line
and that is concerning for a horse that takes long breaks and then makes a few breaks in stride. Post parade might give some clues about that.
5 Trot
4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1
How short a price would you take on Stonebridge Chips? Talent? Yes. Peak form? Not likely. Intent? Doubtful. I see 3 others who will offer a better price, with more experience, and likely trying hard to win. Any of those seem like value, although they are chancy too and they would need to be played as a package. I don't prefer any over the others.
1 Switch is aptly named, being a daughter of Cattlewash out of the pacing bred, and noted pacer Party In Rome, who is by Big Jim. Big Jim is by Western Ideal, and quite a few of them trot, some even have raced on the trot. What I've found though is that many of those trot to a certain speed, but then they start to make breaks and then convert back to pacers. She might be one of those. Currently she shows 3 breaks in her last 4 actual pari mutuel races. She has some racing ability, but I cannot back her until I see her keep trotting, which she didn't do last time. She looked very rocky in the first turn last time before she jumped it off. Pass for now.
5 Trot
4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1
How short a price would you take on Stonebridge Chips? Talent? Yes. Peak form? Not likely. Intent? Doubtful. I see 3 others who will offer a better price, with more experience, and likely trying hard to win. Any of those seem like value, although they are chancy too and they would need to be played as a package. I don't prefer any over the others.
1 Switch is aptly named, being a daughter of Cattlewash out of the pacing bred, and noted pacer Party In Rome, who is by Big Jim. Big Jim is by Western Ideal, and quite a few of them trot, some even have raced on the trot. What I've found though is that many of those trot to a certain speed, but then they start to make breaks and then convert back to pacers. She might be one of those. Currently she shows 3 breaks in her last 4 actual pari mutuel races. She has some racing ability, but I cannot back her until I see her keep trotting, which she didn't do last time. She looked very rocky in the first turn last time before she jumped it off. Pass for now.
2 Lookstobemagic wired them last week at London. Her time was very good, which would certainly play with these, also considering
that she trotted her own back half in 59.1. That was significant improvement in time as she returned to the races after almost
7 months off. She did show some grit, winning last year parked the mile at Dresden, which is tough enough for a 2yo filly to get around even off an easy inside trip. Other than that win, she shows 3 breaks in 3 races last year around the B tracks.
Perhaps she has just matured. Or, the addition of trotting hopples has kept her steadier. Either way, she looks like a prospect as she switches to this track now.
3 Lmc Double Bubble is a fts sent out by Pat Hudon, who is very patient with the young ones, and has had this ones brother,
whom he is currently racing now on the comeback trail. It is impossible to access how ready this one is to do any damage off those slow non competitive qualifying miles, although he did show a 28 second quarter in each of them. He has some speed.
I will watch him this time. Archangel's, especially the young ones, can be tricky and then just see the light.
4 Zillennial, as young trotters go, is very steady and consistent. To date, he has only missed a cheque in one lifetime start when he drew the 9 hole at Mohawk and then he came late to get 6th. Otherwise, he leaves well and tries hard.
Last time, from the 8 hole he left out, secured a pocket trip and then followed the easy winner home for 2nd best. The price is now gone though.
He will now likely need to drop another second overall to beat the better ones in here. Can he do that? I don't know. We will
find out. He should be on the lead or just in back of it this time. That gives him a fair shot.
5 Gone With The Wine was 2nd best last time at London to the 2 horse in this race, chasing her around first over then settling for 2nd with trainer Burgess driving as he has been all along. He now brings him to the big track and hands the lines over to Plante, who loves the front and should have no trouble leaving with this one. If there is more overall speed there, which he will need, he can compete with these. He is chancy, but seemingly viable. He was probably better off staying at London a while longer, but he won once last year and now has exceeded the earnings level for maidens there. So, he might not be as aggressive as you expect first out with these. It's a coin flip on how hard they push him here.
6 None Shall Pass was a big ticket yearling who was sent to team Melander to develop at 2, but he never did and then those connections cut bait on him in early winter, and he arrived at Dagfin's barn as a project, which he is a master at. He got around okay in his qualifier then dropped way back off the gate in his first race for the new connections. He then made a break in the lane and was placed 10th. He is a project for sure and Dagfin will attempt to get him around clean this time as he did in the qualifier. Watch for now.
7 Stonebridge Chips showed reasonable high speed in two qualifiers and one race at 2, then was shut down after that first race. She qualified very well upon return a month ago, jogging in that prep then went a solid 2nd to a daylight winner who she was no match for. However, she only held 2nd as two that were going by her ran right at the same time near the wire.
He will now likely need to drop another second overall to beat the better ones in here. Can he do that? I don't know. We will
find out. He should be on the lead or just in back of it this time. That gives him a fair shot.
5 Gone With The Wine was 2nd best last time at London to the 2 horse in this race, chasing her around first over then settling for 2nd with trainer Burgess driving as he has been all along. He now brings him to the big track and hands the lines over to Plante, who loves the front and should have no trouble leaving with this one. If there is more overall speed there, which he will need, he can compete with these. He is chancy, but seemingly viable. He was probably better off staying at London a while longer, but he won once last year and now has exceeded the earnings level for maidens there. So, he might not be as aggressive as you expect first out with these. It's a coin flip on how hard they push him here.
6 None Shall Pass was a big ticket yearling who was sent to team Melander to develop at 2, but he never did and then those connections cut bait on him in early winter, and he arrived at Dagfin's barn as a project, which he is a master at. He got around okay in his qualifier then dropped way back off the gate in his first race for the new connections. He then made a break in the lane and was placed 10th. He is a project for sure and Dagfin will attempt to get him around clean this time as he did in the qualifier. Watch for now.
7 Stonebridge Chips showed reasonable high speed in two qualifiers and one race at 2, then was shut down after that first race. She qualified very well upon return a month ago, jogging in that prep then went a solid 2nd to a daylight winner who she was no match for. However, she only held 2nd as two that were going by her ran right at the same time near the wire.
These are more her kind, but many have an experience edge on her. That is an issue and she likely has much bigger fish to fry in a couple of months, so they likely aren't in a hurry to go to the bottom of the well. She is legit but I wouldn't take anything less than 9-5 on her based on what I've just written as a lack of motive and intention. She also has a big Murphy blind on the left side so she is obviously a work in progress and maybe has some steering issues to iron out. She was very grabby and hot in the post parade last time and actually took off running briefly. That is something to watch for. She is very green.
8 Thrufireandflames another young one for team Green, this one seems to be a slow developing, one speed type that might end
up on the fringes in the summer in the Grassroots or Prospect series. Right now, he draws poorly and seems likely to close late
to try and nab 4th or 5th money. His time will likely come in this class, but I don't see that as tonight.
9 Green Goose was moved from Team Bax after 6 life starts showing no real improvement or speed to Holding, who has done very well picking up these slow developing types from Bax and Ben B and others and then gradually getting them up to speed where they are solid B track money makers and then he moves them along and gets others, like this one, to start the process over again.
I will keep my eye on this one, as there could be very gradual and minimal improvement and then she could easily go down the
road at a place like Sarnia, Clinton or Grand River in a month or two. There is something there. Just not sure yet what that is. Nine hole tonight likely seals her fate in this contest.
10 Shez Got Trix is a 4yo Trixon mare who is a 22 time maiden and draws the 10 hole tonight. She also shows 2 breaks in her last 3 races. Nothing I can say recommends her tonight and she is a hard pass under all those variables. She looks maybe like a Grand River, Sarnia or Georgian type when they start to open.
6 Trot
FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES
Is Just Business the real deal? Likely, but many like her have fooled us before. What's the deal with Tomboy Strong, an Ohio bred where they race for very good money, in American dollars, coming to Ontario to race? As they used to say with the sitcom Soap, this is the story of two sisters...they have more secrets than money...Let's find out on this episode.
One likely answers the questions, the other leaves us wondering for next time. The rest dont look good enough to beat
the one who answers yes to this week's test.
1 Dont Chang My Naam is the perfect example of what I mentioned in the previous analysis of Green Goose. A high profile stable reject that Holding has developed into a solid, viable cheque getting entity at this track, and when the B tracks open for business, possibly, eventually a good cheque getting Preferred mare in a year or two. Even though she draws the tricky rail here, she has left very well from that slot 3 times in a row previous to her last where she drew the 5 hole,
also left hard but faded in the deep lane against better competition than she has been used to, which she meets again.
I'm not sure at this stage she trots in 56 or 57 like some of these can, or will, or will step up to. She has another shot at 2nd or 3rd money if things go her way. She needs a breather though. Cutting it with these is not going to serve her well.
2 Acrobatic broke her maiden last time by leaving hard, getting the big breather, going the faster hard 3rd quarter, then coasting home with that padded lead. She can still leave hard with these, but now she meets seasoned winners, and her tactics from last time aren't likely to work or be deployed. I expect both Acrobatic and the rail horse to look for the same trip and let one other go. I'm inclined to think this horse doesn't get that trip, stays in, and tries to pick some up late when racing
room appears. She couldn't hold off a massive longshot, long time maiden My Time Your Money two back, so that is a current indication
of where her ability lies until proven otherwise.
3 Just Business did not race at two but that seems to have served her well as she has come out ready to play this winter. After a solid qualifier where she closed in 27.2, she left hard from the 8 hole in his debut, sat in, then sailed by to win easy in good time as the leader self destructed. Moved right up to nw2 last time she sat out of it then came on late to just miss and get 3rd money in 56.2, which if repeated easily handles this bunch. She was running in bad in the first turn and seemed to be leaning in at other times in the mile. That is concerning.
8 Thrufireandflames another young one for team Green, this one seems to be a slow developing, one speed type that might end
up on the fringes in the summer in the Grassroots or Prospect series. Right now, he draws poorly and seems likely to close late
to try and nab 4th or 5th money. His time will likely come in this class, but I don't see that as tonight.
9 Green Goose was moved from Team Bax after 6 life starts showing no real improvement or speed to Holding, who has done very well picking up these slow developing types from Bax and Ben B and others and then gradually getting them up to speed where they are solid B track money makers and then he moves them along and gets others, like this one, to start the process over again.
I will keep my eye on this one, as there could be very gradual and minimal improvement and then she could easily go down the
road at a place like Sarnia, Clinton or Grand River in a month or two. There is something there. Just not sure yet what that is. Nine hole tonight likely seals her fate in this contest.
10 Shez Got Trix is a 4yo Trixon mare who is a 22 time maiden and draws the 10 hole tonight. She also shows 2 breaks in her last 3 races. Nothing I can say recommends her tonight and she is a hard pass under all those variables. She looks maybe like a Grand River, Sarnia or Georgian type when they start to open.
6 Trot
FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES
Is Just Business the real deal? Likely, but many like her have fooled us before. What's the deal with Tomboy Strong, an Ohio bred where they race for very good money, in American dollars, coming to Ontario to race? As they used to say with the sitcom Soap, this is the story of two sisters...they have more secrets than money...Let's find out on this episode.
One likely answers the questions, the other leaves us wondering for next time. The rest dont look good enough to beat
the one who answers yes to this week's test.
1 Dont Chang My Naam is the perfect example of what I mentioned in the previous analysis of Green Goose. A high profile stable reject that Holding has developed into a solid, viable cheque getting entity at this track, and when the B tracks open for business, possibly, eventually a good cheque getting Preferred mare in a year or two. Even though she draws the tricky rail here, she has left very well from that slot 3 times in a row previous to her last where she drew the 5 hole,
also left hard but faded in the deep lane against better competition than she has been used to, which she meets again.
I'm not sure at this stage she trots in 56 or 57 like some of these can, or will, or will step up to. She has another shot at 2nd or 3rd money if things go her way. She needs a breather though. Cutting it with these is not going to serve her well.
2 Acrobatic broke her maiden last time by leaving hard, getting the big breather, going the faster hard 3rd quarter, then coasting home with that padded lead. She can still leave hard with these, but now she meets seasoned winners, and her tactics from last time aren't likely to work or be deployed. I expect both Acrobatic and the rail horse to look for the same trip and let one other go. I'm inclined to think this horse doesn't get that trip, stays in, and tries to pick some up late when racing
room appears. She couldn't hold off a massive longshot, long time maiden My Time Your Money two back, so that is a current indication
of where her ability lies until proven otherwise.
3 Just Business did not race at two but that seems to have served her well as she has come out ready to play this winter. After a solid qualifier where she closed in 27.2, she left hard from the 8 hole in his debut, sat in, then sailed by to win easy in good time as the leader self destructed. Moved right up to nw2 last time she sat out of it then came on late to just miss and get 3rd money in 56.2, which if repeated easily handles this bunch. She was running in bad in the first turn and seemed to be leaning in at other times in the mile. That is concerning.
She looks like at least a legit Grassroots horse and possibly more. There is, however, a graveyard full of failed favorites who started out this way then blew up as they raced on. I want to see her parade to make
sure she is the bearcat in the making, not the flash in the pan. If so, she is the most likely winner on this card. If not, she is a strong play against.
4 Divine Love unlike Just Business is a 4yo making her 18th start, and unlike Just Business, did not go forward off a good maiden score in this class last time, not improving her time and missing a cheque. She is in a tough spot now, winning her way out of the maiden class with nowhere to compete until the B tracks open. Yes, they got the 9k first money for that win, but now they are stuck with a horse looking to just pay her way until opportunity knocks again. Cant see her with these. I don't see 57 speed in her profile. She is a terrible, awkward mover in the post parade, which is something you see from many of the ones from her sire.
5 Southwind Manhattn another one in here for Team Bax, this one the trainer drives. Her very high end breeding suggests they will be keeping her down the road either way, as they paid 100k for her. She won well 4 back in a maiden when she should have and she has competed well so far in nw2, but the fields are getting faster, deeper and tougher as the weather warms. J Mac picks against her here, and while she has a shot, she will have to step up to another level to take down better ones here.
She doesn't show the leaving ability of many of these, so if she is to do any damage, it will come from off the pace unless there is a lot of blowing up off the gate.
6 Tomboy Strong is a homebred, Ohio bred for The Stable that starts out this year on this circuit after doing okay in some stakes last year at 2. I would guess that since she ran over Northfield, then had some issues at Scioto, possibly the big track suits her better and they will try that first. There is good money in the conditioned classes here, the late closers this spring and she didn't make 30k last year, so that opens things up for her if she is more viable here. Tonight will likely
be some kind of test drive for that option to actualize. J Mac took her over the 5, and he doesn't automatically pick The Stable
horses if he has a better option, which suggests she is sticking around for a while. She has a shot tonight if Just Business doesn't deliver the performance we expect she will give at very short odds. I want to see a parade on this one, as she may show she has issues with the turns in the way she moves.
7 Hobnob Hanover is what she is. She milked the maiden class for every last penny and is now doing the same, wisely, with these types. As long as she gets the free pass from the AE condition they tag on this class while they are short horses for full fields, she will continue to grind out 1k to 2k cheques at this home until she is forced to go elsewhere. She doesn't look like a win candidate at this track. She is very likely to pass 100k before they evict her.
sure she is the bearcat in the making, not the flash in the pan. If so, she is the most likely winner on this card. If not, she is a strong play against.
4 Divine Love unlike Just Business is a 4yo making her 18th start, and unlike Just Business, did not go forward off a good maiden score in this class last time, not improving her time and missing a cheque. She is in a tough spot now, winning her way out of the maiden class with nowhere to compete until the B tracks open. Yes, they got the 9k first money for that win, but now they are stuck with a horse looking to just pay her way until opportunity knocks again. Cant see her with these. I don't see 57 speed in her profile. She is a terrible, awkward mover in the post parade, which is something you see from many of the ones from her sire.
5 Southwind Manhattn another one in here for Team Bax, this one the trainer drives. Her very high end breeding suggests they will be keeping her down the road either way, as they paid 100k for her. She won well 4 back in a maiden when she should have and she has competed well so far in nw2, but the fields are getting faster, deeper and tougher as the weather warms. J Mac picks against her here, and while she has a shot, she will have to step up to another level to take down better ones here.
She doesn't show the leaving ability of many of these, so if she is to do any damage, it will come from off the pace unless there is a lot of blowing up off the gate.
6 Tomboy Strong is a homebred, Ohio bred for The Stable that starts out this year on this circuit after doing okay in some stakes last year at 2. I would guess that since she ran over Northfield, then had some issues at Scioto, possibly the big track suits her better and they will try that first. There is good money in the conditioned classes here, the late closers this spring and she didn't make 30k last year, so that opens things up for her if she is more viable here. Tonight will likely
be some kind of test drive for that option to actualize. J Mac took her over the 5, and he doesn't automatically pick The Stable
horses if he has a better option, which suggests she is sticking around for a while. She has a shot tonight if Just Business doesn't deliver the performance we expect she will give at very short odds. I want to see a parade on this one, as she may show she has issues with the turns in the way she moves.
7 Hobnob Hanover is what she is. She milked the maiden class for every last penny and is now doing the same, wisely, with these types. As long as she gets the free pass from the AE condition they tag on this class while they are short horses for full fields, she will continue to grind out 1k to 2k cheques at this home until she is forced to go elsewhere. She doesn't look like a win candidate at this track. She is very likely to pass 100k before they evict her.
