Thoughts On Racing: 2017

Thursday, October 5, 2017

Understand horses...and the people who contest races.

Today, in my Facebook group, my friend Chuck Jones made a post. I will share it below.

It was an insightful post, and I like that Chuck knows he doesn't know enough on his own and avails himself of the help that is there in my group. That includes myself, my friend Garnet Barnsdale, who is a paid handicapper, and a host of others, including seasoned players and professional trainers.

Right off the bat, I knew what Chuck was thinking, because many would think it, and its the common perception that most will have...if...they don't know horses, and they don't know the people who participate in the racing of horses.
So, I made a comment, which you will see in the above screen cap, and then I wrote a status, which I will post below that.

"Since Chuck brought it up, I'm going to take the time to make a handicapping point.
In another group Chuck and I are in (and some others in this group), a guy made a post about speed horses in the T breds. His theory was that front end speed would win the majority of races, and to play them that way. In the race he mentioned, he thought that would be the case, but while it was, he wasn't on the winner, a 14-1 shot, because he didn't show any gate speed on his recent lines.
When Chris Christoforou was in this group, someone mentioned that a certain driver can "make speed" with horses. Chris mentioned that any driver can make any horse leave if they really want to. That is just something you know if you train horses, and drive them. If a horse can close in 27, he can leave in 27. Cool Rock showed that last week when he wired the field, when he is noted by the talking heads as a "stone cold closer" which is really just bullshit.
Back in the day, a horse called Shady Hill Pride was a WEG warrior for many years. He was so noted as a lay back, then monster closer, that Earl Lennox would call him coming wide on the last turn every time, as he was "winding up"...and coming from "the end east parking lot"..which Greenwood had but most didn't want to park in that lot, as it was far from where you sat to watch the races. One day, Harold Stead was driving the horse. I don't think he was the regular driver, and that day, for whatever reason, he blasted off the wings, opened up daylight, and maintained it. After that day, the horse was on the front end a lot, and won some, lost some. When he was older, he was a crazy front end kamikaze that could open up 20 on a field of 2 claimers at Hanover or Orangeville. Sometimes he held on, other times he caved. He had enough ability edge on those fields to attempt that. We have seen Stature Seelster try that at WEG, and it doesn't work. At Flamboro, it can work for him, but still, he can get picked up like he did last time.
I had a mare I claimed called Mac Ms R Nukes. She had one monster brush, the No Nukes brush many have seen if they watch his old races. She was by a son of No Nukes, out of a Sonsam mare, another horse with a crazy brush. She was racing off the pace every week, and winning. She had low lifetime earnings, so, I claimed her, and put her in low earning conditions for a big purse at London. Those were the times when the money was really flowing.
I got her home, and she was very quiet and lazy. Two fingers to jog as they say.
So, after a day or two, I turned her and rattled her cage. I woke her up.
I put her in at London, and got the rail. I thought I was a cinch winner. She was so hyped up, she was hard to get off the trailer. Anyway, she blasted out and daylighted the field most of the way, only to get beat by some WEG class dropper Mark Etsell had. Still, 2nd money was good money. I put her back in that class, she drew the rail again, and pulled the same stunt. She got 2nd again, then regressed. She was not really a good horse to put on the front, as she wouldn't rate once you started doing that. That is why many don't do it. You end up with a Stature Seelster once you let them get that way.
But make no mistake, just about any horse can be that type, if you want to race them that way. Don't get sucked into a program page that makes you think one horse will be the only speed. When other drivers see that, they think this is the night to leave and take a shot."

Further, I made a comment about which horse I thought would do something that most would not expect, and as it played out, that horse did exactly that. What was that?

In a race with apparent lone speed, with the favorite having that speed, a horse who shows flashes of that sort of thing, would be gassed out of there to go with her, and try to take advantage of that.
My point to Chuck, and others, was that most horses can leave, even if they don't show that very often, or even at all. It's there if you want to ask them to do it. There is a reason mostly why you don't, but that doesn't mean there isn't a reason on that day to try it.
Now, say you were a jockey. You can read the program just like the bettors can. Everyone thinks the fave is the lone speed, you know your horse can also go if asked, and possibly most of the others are going to take back. This is your chance to get out, sit on that one's back, stay close, suck along, and then take your shot at the end of the race. That is what jockeys do, and what the good ones are paid to do. That is...figure out how to win races and make calls that win races that most times the horse should lose.
Think about that the next time you think there is a lone speed horse, and nobody will go with that one. Likely, something that doesn't show gate speed will take a shot. And you will get long odds, because nobody is figuring that one will.
That is how value plays are created.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

10 valid thoughts for the serious horseplayer.

1. Your time is the most important variable to consider. If you waste it in any way, your ROI will go down by that amount. You have to work on ways to use your time better. Time is money is a very valid concept for serious horseplayers.

2. Hit rate is not that important. Its not irrelevant either. But, no matter what your hit rate is, if you don't play for value, you are guaranteed to lose money.

3. What others say is important. They might give you info you can use. But your own opinion and system is always the most important thing to listen to. Others will always say things that will trigger you, and they will think up things you would have never thought to test or try. Doesn't mean they are right, but it means they are a resource to avail yourself of. It doesn't replace what you do, but it can add to it if applied correctly. Don't discount anyone until they convince you that is the best option.

4. You don't know it all, and neither does anybody else. If they claim they do, its a sure sign they know little, and certainly less than you if you are already successful. You never stop learning if you play the horses. I've done if for 35 years, and I learn more now than I did 2 years ago.

5. Winning at the races is simple, but its not easy. Its hard work and its a constant battle to get better faster than the others can catch up to your edge. Set time away from playing to get better every day. It will pay off in better returns over time.

6. You have to accept losing, and make plays that will lose, trying not to be perfect. Its the net amount you win that matters, not whether you win or lose a bet. Hardest one of these 10 for a perfectionist like me to master. I've worked hard to accept losing as part of the winning process.

7. Until you figure out other ways of playing, stick to what you know and what works for you. Profit is profit. How you do it, and how others do it doesn't matter. Whoever makes the best return on their bankroll is doing it right for themselves. I probably don't understand your bets that well, and you won't understand mine. Its not a race to figure out how others do it. The goal is to do it well yourself, and that is all that matters.

8. Numbers don't lie. If you gather valid data, what others think about an angle mean nothing if your data is tested and proved valid. You will win, and they will lose. Facts trump opinion. They likely wont understand what you do, how you figure it out. That is not your problem. That is your edge.

9.Study what losers say and play. They will lead you to angles and success just by steering you away from poor and ill conceived plays. Stupid is very valuable in this scenario. The flipside of a loser is a winner taking their money. Without losers, we would only be trying to beat whales with supercomputers and high powered brainiacs on their payroll. Good luck with that.

10. You have to be consistent. You can never alter your strategy or how you play because you win or lose a lot in a day or week. If you know what you are doing, trust yourself. If you don't trust your ability, your work and your plan, you might as well just burn the money. At least it will be useful and heat your house. It certainly will disappear if you don't stick with the plan you have set out.

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 13, 2017

RACE 1

1 Expose Yourself

some winning in the winter at Pompano, where Henry spends the winter. She came back home with aspirations to tackle the better ones. She is definitely a live wire parading and going to the gate, so anything that can help her when she gets rocky might help. The first time she made the gate and was away well, but she seemed to be in way too tough, and chasing the likes of Magic Presto and some of the lesser ones behind her were too much for her. She blew up before she got started both times after that, and went back to school with the trotting hopples, which kept her together enough to blast out a 57.3 mile at Grand River. That can't be discounted, but, the rail is very bad again at Mohawk, it claimed Hill Yes last night, and there have been no winners the last two cards. I find her hard to latch onto with all the variables in play.

2 Late Shift

ad post 10 last time, blasted out to an easy lead as there were many jumpers who weren't in the road, but in spite of reasonable fractions from there, packed it in when it mattered. She did the same thing from the 6 hole the race before that, although the back half and overall time were much faster. It could be that she is a 58 trotter at this stage and that will only get her what it does. I'd have to think that isn't good enough to take down this entire bunch. She is an 0 for 12 maiden facing a few winners here. If her 5-2 ML top choice holds, I'd think she is very bad value.

3 Hab Faith

is pretty much in the same boat as Late Shift. She has enough gate speed to get up into contention, but when they start asking her for more, she wilts.

Like many, her good manners, solid gait and early speed served her well at 2, but its not enough to carry her at 3, when the fields are deeper and faster as a rule. I can't see her on her current performance.

4 Sweet Kimmy

look to have been a project horse for Burgess since he broke her.

She managed to pull it together and surfaced finally on Friday at Grand River, where she was a distant 2nd to a very high end prospect who toyed with and outclassed the field. She was a good 2nd to him. She is a longshot for sure, but appears to have some upside as she learns her craft. I like that she at least makes the gate and gets away clean most times. Last time she stayed at it the entire way, and under pressure first up. Outside of an equipment break in a qualifier, she has kept it together the entire way this season. She now needs to do that and go faster. 2:01 over Grand River is in range with most of these if she makes the 3 second gain you can from that oval to this one. Blair turns her over to Saftic, which is another positive sign. Shot.

5 Muscle Lane

raced at 2, but she wasn't much and clearly wasn't ready to compete. She has come back ready to play, trying to go down the road in her first start at Kawartha, and only being picked off on the wire. She is possible, but she will have to leave faster to get control with a few that are both inside and outside of her. I want to see her once with this level of competition. She could slide onto the ticket if enough of them blow up, she behaves and drops another second or two. Kawartha is a very fast track, so that might not happen like it can with the ones coming from Grand River or other half mile tracks.

6 Northern Oath

raced decently at 2, finishing 3rd to Cameron Hill, and drawing two 10 holes prior to that, and a solid 4th in the start before that, all starts where she was just below or at 2 minutes.

She qualified good upon return, in 58 at Georgian, then made a break leaving last time, but recovered. I'd have to think they don't pay 350 bucks to race in this spot unless its something they can rectify, when she could go right back into a maiden and bag 3k without paying up to try and get it. Good upset potential, Steve Byron brings in a lot of longshots and is a very fine driver with young stock.

7 Literally

won a Grassroots last year when she first came out, then was 2nd and 3rd in two Golds, before tailing off and being shut down. She qualified a 2nd time, over a month ago, and then came up sick for her first start. That is hard to go on, and her consistent weak last quarters make her tough to go to. Lets see her return to the promise she showed early last year. Being a Justice Hall, she is likely to be very erratic. Good longshot prospect some time this summer when the variables come together.

8 Angies Dish

hows nothing to suggest she is viable in this spot, or any other spot for that matter. I have to see something positive from her. Zeron's stock has mostly been awful this late spring and early summer. Pass for now.

9 Twin B Venus

draws poorly, is yet to show the speed of most of these, and I would think is hoping to pick up a decent cheque. A return to Grand River and that type of class seems the better spot.

She still fits the class she got 2nd in last time. She has enough allowance to take 4th or 5th here, get her speed down a bit, and return there for a few scores.

10 Hudsons Ya Ya

draws poorly and her two starts this season have not been impressive. I can't see how she wins this.

RACE 3

1 Gisele Treelane

ust have showed high ability all along, as she really looked hopeless in all her preps. She finally held it together, then

found the perfect soft field composed of no talents and runners to simply one move late and mow them all down with a 57 flat back half. She blew up again last time, but she is a young trotter learning. She could be either tonight, but the ability looks to be there. I'd like to see her parade before I make any play on her, but if you are playing the pick 5, I'd consider her a must use. Post 1 could be tricky for her, but if she gets away clean and doesn't spot them 15 to the half, she is in play.

2 Powerful Mission

shows very high speed at times, and can beat a tough enough bunch when she keeps it together. Her breeding suggests she wont very often, but on any given night, she is one or the other.

She was rolling wide last time when she blew up, and I'd think Phil will try to avoid that trip and stay in as long as possible, aiming to split horses or swing out when they are going straight. Shot, but iffy as the page and her lines suggest.

3 Moni Justice

seems to be like most of the young ones Dagfin brings out....she has ability, he doesn't let much of it show early as he keeps them within themselves and gradually ups the ante as they show they could possibly be ready for that demand. Off a qualifier and a decent race at Georgian where she trotted in 2 minutes and took 2nd, I could see her as a decent add. There are enough iffy ones in here to suggest they could just self destruct while she takes her time down to 57, and that might be enough. Tough call when you don't have a lot to go on except the trainers history. Her slow starts put her in a hole, and these are likely to be even faster to the half. That is a negative first time out with this sort of company.

4 Magic Maddy

looks like the bit player type for now. I suppose eventually she could mature and come into herself, like many do. At this stage, not winning on the Kawartha soft spot, and only getting 3rd to a very weak bunch last week don't inspire me to think she can do much more, and many of these do have that upside.

5 You Cant Afford Me

was a solid 2nd in nw3 last time, and that coupled with her overall time, likely makes her the favorite here. I'm not sold that she is worthy of that, based on 1 good race and being 2nd to a mare who went winless for 2 years, then didn't have much last night either. I will go elsewhere and let her beat me. She is not proven as a winner against stakes types. Her high level of inbreeding also suggest consistency can be an issue. She hasn't proved yet that isn't in play.

6 Hilarious Honey

has been all over the racing map, Georgian, Philadelphia, The Big M, Pocono, and not got the job done yet. However, this type, in this type of class, over time, in my view, can be very dangerous. Nobody gets an accurate read on them, and they move them around because they feel the horse is worthy of all that effort. Philly and Pocono race every week, many times a week. You could just leave her there and race maidens for free. Why ship here again and pay up to race? I'm suspicious that she might bring more to the table than they have showed us. Yes, she is a maiden, and she has had 10 tries to change that status. But she also has 6 OTB finishes, and some money made. The other note of interest is that Philly is well known to those that watch it as being a trap along the rail to start from for a young trotter, or any trotter, or even some pacers. The track is very loose and the turns are uneven ground. That plays into her current form, as does a tune up at Georgian last time where she wasn't bad, although a bad overbet favorite. Neither of those factors are her fault.

7 Holiday Style

shows nothing to suggest she can go with maidens, let alone stakes horses and some who are winners. I can't see her.

8 Lady Justice

made 52k last year, but never won a race. Her first two this year have been terrible, and she draws bad again. Another I cannot see at this stage, but Henry might turn her around during the summer. I will watch for tonight.

9 Gaelic Lass

has a bad post, a low percentage driver, and doesn't look fit enough or fast enough to compete yet. Lets see what she can do. I don't like her tonight, that is obvious from my previous comment. She gets 1st time trotting hopples, so there is room for improvement as she goes along.

10 Angora Seelster

has some speed, and some upside, but as for tonight, she has a non driving trainer and the 10 hole, and she is erratic on her own. Can't play her from what I see, but she will be a player at some stage this season.

RACE 5

1 Try to Resist

is a maiden leaving from the rail who has not showed the speed or ability of many of these. Cant see her getting money.

2 Perfect Delight

trotted a solid mile in her first effort of the year, 2nd of her career. I can see her going forward and she would be a decent longshot if her ML holds, which I suspect it wont.

3 Tymal Declan

has not shown anything to suggest she belongs with this group, or at this track. She will have to fool me. She appears to be a nice B track horse if she sticks to that and stays in conditions.

4 Da Miracle

rotted a decent yet unspectacular mile last time, shaving her time down considerably in her first start of the year. She is another who could step up, in a race where there are many unknowns.

5 Bustingattheseams

is somewhat erratic, yet capable enough when she keeps it together. Post 5 might favor her getting out near the top, where she appears to like it. Randy is not opposed to doing that and then sitting the entire mile looking for a late opening. That could be the right formula here. She shows bursts of speed at different points in different miles. If she gets the right trip, that burst could be valuable tonight. Shot.

6 Anikadabra

made a good buck at 2, winning the Grassroots final and many other legs, but has not come back sharp. She could take heavy win money tonight, and based on her inclination to go backwards so far, and run last time, I will take my shot against her.

7 Majestic Kat

can be a slow starter, and that is a bit of a problem, but generally she is progressing and going forward as she races on. She is a viable option if the price is right. I'd want 4-1 to try her, but either way, I'd use her in the picks.

8 Jilona

seems to trot right around 57, which might be good enough here. Post will hurt her, potentially, as she has started slow from the outside and not been able to make up the difference. That being the case, I could see Trevor blasting and taking his shot, and my opinion is that if that were to occur, it will set it up for something late, or Randy if he gets on her back and finds a way out at the right time. A lot of ifs and maybe's, but its an angle in a race like this.

9 Ticket to Seattle

eat

a very weak bunch 3 weeks ago, draws badly tonight, and loses her driver to her stablemate. That is enough for me to pass on her.

10 Kendras Coco

s an 0 for 10 maiden from the 10 hole coming off a break. That makes her hard to like on multiple levels.

Monday, May 29, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 29, 2017

RACE 1

1 On a Sunny Day did pretty much everything right at 2, winning 4 of 6, being 2nd in another and running in the Superfinal, her only blemish. She did have the rail in that last start, and as we know, that can be a real problem for trotters, especially young trotters. She draws that again tonight. She was flawless in the 2nd qualifier back, doing everything right and angling in the lane to float by the others under no urging. She has a proven track record of being a very solid finisher, which is a big plus with this group. This is not a tough or deep field, and since she trotted in 55.4 at 2, and has had 2 qualifiers, I would think she can trot in 56 right away. I don't know if that is enough, based on how fast they were going Saturday night, and Fillion might be cautious leaving from the inside, as I'm sure this one has bigger dances right on the horizon, as Hamilton notes in the program. If the 2 takes a lot of win money, she is a viable option to play against her.

2 Pampered in Pink is typical of most of the young trotters with issues that Vanderkamp turns. He has taught this one to find a comfort zone, and he mainly does that by letting them float out and relax, so they stop getting edgy going to the gate thinking they will run, then gradually lets them move into the race and finish well, mostly going away from the field late. Once they get to that stage, he starts racing them more tactically. This one fits that profile. The step up from maidens to nw2, both tests she has passed, and then to nw3 requires a bit more speed and a bit more racing effort earlier in the mile. Last time she was floated out again towards the back and had too far to come, but she did go back to back 28 and change quarters, indicating she is progressing and still in very good form. At this stage, Jake And Pondas Lexus are too advanced for her, but she was right there with the rest, and meets a much softer field here. Post 2 is no problem, as she doesn't look to be in need of being in the top 5 at the quarter anyway.

She received mild urging at best last time, and certainly could have gotten 3rd if that was important. Hard to ignore her form, but she could bring a very short price tonight.

3 J N Ryder has 1 lifetime win in many starts, which he took 2 back at London. He is 5 now, and has earned a decent buck considering his win shy status. He won by leaving from the rail, which he has always been known to do, and backing down the half. Back with better last time and without control, he was back to his small pieces lifestyle. I can't play him in with some pretty nice ones.

4 Santini is likely gearing up for a solid Grassroots season, as he did last year. He has prepped well and took his time down nicely last time. This is his his 3rd start back, and loses Fillion to the rail horse but picks up Condren, who can arguably be considered better with this type of horse. He was gapping and finished only evenly last time, even though he had a very soft trip. I think he needs one more to be 100% fit, and he is only a minor use tonight if I am wrong and he steps up.

5 Life Well Lived tried Gold colts last time at Flamboro, on a miserable night and deep track. We wont know if he was actually good enough, because he jumped it off early and never recovered. He would need to take a second or two off his final time to go with the best of these currently, but he does have a good post to get out near the lead, and if one or both of the logical ones from the insider happen to blow up or encounter bad road trouble, he is viable. Carmen had a very good run on Friday and Saturday, and he can win a lot of races when his stable gets hot.

6 Bluebird D Train ships in from the B tracks, where she has done reasonably well. She tried a step lower at Woodbine twice, but wasn't good enough then. Perhaps she has matured a bit, but he is not finding a soft bunch at the top end of this field. She does bear in, or at least lean in enough that the move back to the big track will help her. She looks short on class to a few of these. Very minor use in the picks if you want to go deep. She would need them to fail.

7 Janderson goes 2nd off the layoff, plus 2 qualifiers, and is another prepping for probably a try at Gold Fillies again to see if she carries her 2yo form into 3. Some don't. She was following a loose on the lead leader last time, but gapped that one and was not with the top 2 when the win was decided. She also had the pack ready to swarm her, but the line came just in time. She did knock almost 2 seconds off the qualifier, and that is the fastest she has gone yet. I can see her as a bit player, and a minor shot if a lot of things go her way. Her breeding suggests that when others gradually progress and win in faster time, she will be more than happy to tag along like last time. I prefer others.

8 I Jasmin has a very low percentage trainer, and a very high percentage driver. What to do, what to do? She herself is also a 3 time winner who has done a lot of racing but is now a 6yo. McNair jumped off to take the 10, as you would expect anybody who can read the program would. Last time, off the shelf, she drew post 10, spotted them 20 at the quarter, but did trot forward late, with a back half in 56.1, evenly to only get beat 5. She might be a play next time if she draws better and duplicates that performance. She has a history of not duplicating performances. Lets see how she is this time. She trotted consistently in 55 and change last year before she was laid off. That would be in range for this class most nights.

9 Money Mission was decent enough last year, but like many that go from 3 to 4 and dont have restricted sire stakes types to play with, he is struggling. This is his 3rd start back, after many qualifiers to get back in the box, and he has been a slow starting bit player to this point. Both times a big longshot, and he draws the 9 hole here. He looks like a one speed, B track type that will do well when Georgian opens up. I will watch and wait for now.

10 Winter Sweet Frost banked 323k last year but has raced poorly in 3 starts to this point upon return. She jumped it off last time, and I would think the goal tonight from the 10 hole is to get away clean, keep at it, brush late for whatever that gets, and be going in the right direction for the first Sire Stakes, which is coming up shortly.

RACE 2

1 Northern Swift is a nicely progressing maiden who drops into a Grassroots, which generally is not a good angle, but this race has come up soft on that variable. The only one who is really proven, the 6, has suspect form and generally her type regresses as they go from 2 to 3. This filly has drawn a post 1 and 9, so she likely has been up against it. She gets the rail again, and that is a negative. Last time, from the 9, she tried to go directly left when the gate sped away, and Drury had to correct her, and in the meantime, she was left out with no hole. When she got to the turn, the hole was there, but Drury didn't want it, as there was one in front of that hole who was steppy and might have jumped right in front of her. So, he carried on, parked the mile, and she stayed with it most of the way, only tiring mid lane and coming home even. She is extremely green, but appears to have a lot of speed and potential. Minor shot tonight if she puts it together. At least if she veers slightly left leaving, she only has to hit pylons and not other horses.

2 Southwind Geo is the opposite of the 1. She is a seasoned maiden, having raced a lot at 2, and still going up to this point. She is now 0 for 15, and she returns from London. I will say that other than last time, she drew badly every other time at London, and because London is more about earnings that wins, she was racing higher than what a straight maiden might have to face. Last time, she did draw better, but moved first over into a 28.1 third quarter that did her in. She looks like a one brush horse, as her breeding would suggest she is. I could see her as a viable, very minor longshot chance in with a bunch that have enough holes to make me think like that.

3 Cams Lucky Star was bred by MacIntosh, on one of his favorite crosses (Camluck/Artsplace), but when she showed up as a racehorse last year she was already in the hands of the connections she returns to tonight. Same owner, but after a stint in Ohio, she returns to team McNair. She progressed nicely and then got it done in a maiden at Miami Valley 2 back, but then had post 8 at Scioto, was at least 5 lengths off the gate when it sped away, spend the entire time in the backfield in a second set of no good ones that were going nowhere, and she couldn't even pass them. I like others a lot better than her, and if she were to back up that 3-1 ML and go off the fave or close to it, I'd book her action and leave her off any ticket.

4 C Mary wired the bottom maidens at London, then came right back at the added distance race and wired those. She made the move to the big track last time, but was an iffy leaver, then hung, then gapping out badly, and finally well beaten 10th. She does show two fast quarters to finish off that race, but she was doing nothing while doing it, and others did better than her. I think this move gets her a bit ahead of herself. Her trainer sports a high average, so he appears to know how to spot them to make money.

5 Deprived is a very aggresive type, but more than anything, she is grabby as long as she is following along. Three back JJ tripped her out in the deuce, but when shown a clear lane, she couldn't even pass a tired and running in leader, who raced poorly again next time, and let another by as well. I can see her blasting out here and looking for someone to follow, but I'm not sure how that ends up in a winning trip. She will have to do more. She is also a maiden, but a poor performing one.

6 Southwind Ion started out with high hopes when Coleman brought her out in a Gold right off the bat last year. That never really worked out, and she was sold after spending the spring in Andrew Harris's stable, when she was thrown into a conditioned claimer at Pocono last time, and raced terrible. Gilmour takes over here, and she draws well. Those are two variables that can't be ignored, as well as her 4 lifetime wins, her 53.4 mark taken last year and her 68k in the bank. She is hard to ignore, as Hamilton has done in his comments, and I'd have to use her in some manner in the exotics. She will have to be seen, but she has a class and experience edge on a lot of these, but terrible form to go on. According to the program, she will be removed from racing on Lasix tonight. That is an interesting change you don't see often. London is done and Grand River hasn't started yet, so McClure is in to drive her.

7 Fading Shadow was bred and raced by Jack Darling last year, but he moved her out the door, as she didn't appear to be much stock. She tried the Grassroots once last year, was 9th, and then hit the conditioned claimers until she was purchased by the new connections. She has come back ready to race, and bagged 2 2nd place finishes at London, as she moves here to try the stakes fillies again. She has a shot as she appears to be improving. I'd use her in a minor way.

8 Maching Me Zilly is an 0 for 13 maiden that draws the 8 hole. That isn't a good start to my assessment of her chances tonight. She had post 9 last time, 8 before that, and was in a deep hole both times. No reason to think she isn't in that hole again here. She does show finishing well, and back in a straight maiden, I think she is a viable play on the right night.

9 Machs Echo is a homebred that barely raced at 2, and draws poorly tonight, after spending the winter at Pompano and shipping into London to get her season started here. She is hard to like and one I will have to see parade and race to get a read on for next time.

RACE 3

1 Stenhouse Hanover beat a pretty soft bunch of maidens last time by simply staying trotting, going one speed, staying out of trouble and outclassing them. There are a few in here that he wont get away with that. He is likely to be as good as many by the fall, but he is not there yet. This is a tough climb all things considered.

2 Innovative Force is a 4yo gelding that is 1 for 30 something, with weak form. He retains Roy, but he starts slow and had missed almost a month, and meets a few in here with high hopes for a bright future, which this one doesn't look to have. Of note, he did draw the rail 3 times in a row at Woodbine and was a bit better last time from a better post. If he were to perform tonight, I'd consider him for a longshot chance next time. He took his lone win at Flamboro, so, in reality, he is a maiden at this track, but doesn't get to race against them. Not tonight for me.

3 Perfect Mass came right out and was ready to race at first asking, scoring impressively. She was pushed right in against stakes foes next out and the pace was much faster. When moving well, she appeared to interfere slightly up front and jumped. Otherwise she looked okay. If that issue is sorted out, she is back in where she can compete and has a legit shot to take these down, especially if the 7 has similar issues to last time which didn't cost him then but will tonight against one like this.

4 Euro Gap was in the Takter barn in the winter, and he got him sorted out right before the sale, and Grant bought him. He has returned to his spotty consistency and jumped it off twice before holding it together in the qualifier. He shows high speed when he can put it all together. Minor longshot upset potential because of the type of colt he is. I wouldn't want him to beat me tonight because he figured it out and others just bomb out.

5 Tougher Than Ever seems to be a one speed type. He goes 29 and change almost every quarter, an on a night when 57 and change or 58 wins the race, he will win that race. Otherwise, he just goes along and picks up whatever is left on the table. Last time, he was on cover, which was poor but going forward, then lucked into a mare who had broken equipment and a front end stopper who bagged it and that landed him 3rd, with no threat to the top 2. His slow starts don't inspire confidence that a one speed type like him can storm home and beat them all.

6 Just for You draws the best post and goes out for Boyd, who is red hot with the longshots lately, and he owns this one himself. She has progressed nicely off the shelf and closed well last time to be right there. Shot at a price.

7 Dancer Hall is an interesting one. He is obviously talented, and has a powerful frame and strides in full gear. He also stays out a long way and just keeps going. However, he does show the signs of soreness and lameness that you would expect from one who has an Amigo Hall dam and Deweycheatnhowe son. I'd still use him in a minor way, but he is ripe to go down if he keeps needing finessing like he did last time.

8 Weslynn Dancer shows a lot of X's on the page, including her last race and 2 of her last 3. Post 8 tonight, and there are a few in here who are ahead of her on most variables. I will pass on her until I see something of a consistent effort week to week. Being one of Bax's, I'm aware she is capable of turning it around fast and scoring at a big price.

9 Heineken Seelster is not one I can back on many of the variables I see, namely post position, coming off a layoff, makes breaks, cheap bred, never beat much or gone fast, and on and on it could go.

10 Vero Amore Bi was aimed at the big dances and won a Gold before going lame and being shut down. He looked lame long before that, and now comes back off the shelf with 2 qualifiers and post 10. I would think Randy races him easy and his efforts will be put into another day for a better purse.

RACE 4

1 Rose Run Samantha made a very impressive post parade appearance last time and raced right to it in the race, being 2nd from the 10 hole and giving the winner a good run in the lane. She is a maiden however meeting many proven winners, draws the rail, and has a driver who uses others when winning is more important than teaching. She is possible, but I wouldn't be taking a short price on her and I suspect that is what is coming.

2 Out of Sight was aimed high last year, but couldn't quite cut it, and ended up just winning a maiden and the final of the Autumn Series. She did make 46k and was fairly competitive when spotted right. She comes back off the shelf with two qualifiers and racing at the Grassroots level now. This isn't a sterling field at first glance, so, I could see her getting it done and I'd have to use her in the pick 4 and 5 if I were to play that. This could be one RW gets out near the pace, buries, and comes up the rail late to steal it.

3 Kloof Street has never really looked sound in all the times I've seen her, and now she returns for the season off 3 qualifiers, which she needed because she ran in the first two and got around last time with the trainer driving. That is not inspiring me to use her, in spite of her upside potential at times.

4 Royal Point ships in with some decent lines and a solid winning record.....beating maidens from rail starts at Rideau. If that is the kiddies pool, she is swimming in the middle of the ocean without a life preserver here. She will have to be seen and prove she can handle some relatively tough customers for her.

5 Sheer Talent was pretty solid last year, and both made money and won races. This year has been another story, as her first 3 starts have been awful. Carmen's barn was very cold, and she is also a Badlands Hanover mare, and they seem to go off form and then turn it around fast without warning. She has to be considered a dangerous longshot to use if you don't want to get wiped out here. Carmen has not gone the Lasix route here--his favorite fix it for the ones that stop---so I infer there is some other issue and he is working on it. Tonight could be the night it pays off.

6 Ask for Me is 1 for 13 life, got that win with a superb rating that gave the only legit one on her back no chance, but otherwise has not performed. She is coming off 3 bad posts in a row, so, while I don't like her for the win tonight, I could see her turning it around in the near future if I see something remotely positive here.

7 Gottalovemyshadow is both very eager, and very green, and at times she drives like a snake, and almost run up on horses when she follows. She will probably grow out of that, and she does look talented when she gets it right. One of many in here, but I'd have to use her. She paced in 53, back to back 27.3 quarters in her last start. That appears better than most of these.

8 Braonach wired a soft bunch at Flamboro in April, but otherwise she has been a bust as a racehorse to this point, and gets the 8 hole tonight. She appears to take after her brothers win shy tendencies. I can't see how she makes the ticket.

9 White Dancer shows enough to be a player with this group if she wasn't in the 9 hole start jail. I guess you could add her if you have room, as J Mac has been known to find a trip to get this kind home. That is your call. I haven't decided yet myself if I want to do that. She also has soundness issues, so being Race 4, you get to see who she is on that front before you play the pick 4. I will avail myself of that option. For the pick 5, you have to make the call at 7:25.

10 Big Chute is a bit player maiden from the 10 hole facing winners, and some stake winners. Hard to see how she can beat these.

RACE 5

1 Pickled Preacher went to the top in his debut last time at Flamboro and wired them. Hard to knock that effort, and he gets to race maidens at this track. I will watch him once with these, and some of them have gone pretty fast to date and he is likely coming from off the pace with a rail start. Tab for later. Pass for tonight.

2 American Sportsman could easily go off at 1-5 tonight, and if it was just off the program, that would probably be okay. However, he shows very troubling lameness signs, and last time was galloping after the wire and for a good stretch after that. McNair was slashing on him to get it back together. He has showed those troubles before, and thus is a blow up candidate. On talent, he probably has a big edge on these but not so much that he can be 70% and beat a few who show enough. Minor underneath use to CYA, but I'd go against him and hope he proves me right.

3 Big Charlie Horse has big upset potential, and should be a big price. He made his lifetime debut last time, from post 9, and spotted them 20 at the quarter. He paced a big 3rd quarter, showing the type of speed you hope maidens translate into winning form as they progress. Obviously he will have to do a lot more and go a lot faster, but his dam had that type of speed and class, and of course, his sire is a known quantity. This field is ripe for a longshot. He could be the one. Or not. Tough call when you only have that race to go by.

4 Penzance Hanover started poorly in his career debut, was out and moving wide, was in contention but not looking terribly dangerous, but then wiped out by a loon who had to deal with a blind driver who came out where there was no clearance. He hooked wheels and came to a dead stop. Minor shot, but I want to see him go an entire mile and work for it before I call him a serious contender. Mayotte generally is a long term thinker and isn't in a hurry to win a maiden with a 2nd time starter.

5 Creepin is a very fast leaver, but he appears to need to sit a long time and draft. When he did that 3 back, he stayed on for 2nd. When he didn't 2 back, he walked home. The improved post here gives him a big shot to turn the tables on whoever cuts it if he can sit on a live helmet and one brush later to contend and possibly win. Top call for the upset over the obvious faves.

6 Abbeydorney looks to have some speed, and was tried briefly against Metro foes at 2, with a poor result and not a good finish to his year. He switches barns to Marfisi as he resurfaces, and draws the good post. He is a contender, but I like others in this spot. I have to see him and see how he races.

7 Tremendous Play has 2 poor posts in a row, and draws better here, but meets what would be considered a deep maiden field compared to most nights. Not for me tonight, but he could be a longshot player as the summer progresses.

8 Uncle Reimus shows poor starts and some breaks leaving otherwise, coupled with post 8 tonight, it makes it hard to back him. I have to see him. His breeding suggests he is very fast, but also might have some steering issues if he is like the others on that cross.

9 Bobcat Bound made 13 starts at 2, but never got it done, although he tackled the best out there many times. He ended the season in a maiden, and didn't get it done there either. He qualified okay to be second to Abbeydorney, and I could see him putting it together right away at a big price.

10 Rock on Line is 0 for 10 and draws the 10 hole. That isn't encouraging. I could see him picking up a slice, but will wait another day for the win slot.

Monday temp

She received mild urging at best last time, and certainly could have gotten 3rd if that was important. Hard to ignore her form, but she could bring a very short price tonight.

Friday, May 26, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 26, 2017

RACE 4

1 Wasaga Beach has missed 3 weeks now, and returns with first time lasix and Mackenzie driving, as the colony is thin tonight with the action at London. She now drops in class and has had 3 bad posts in a row, one of which she won from anyway. She is usable here if you are looking to go deep, which looks like a good move in this field.

2 Barockey typically shows bad form, which she has for a few weeks, and then pops up and races better without warning. This looks like that type of situation. She isn't reliable, but you can rely on her showing up once every 6 weeks when you thought she was to be discounted. I'm inclined to use her here. Drury does well with her when she shows up ready to compete.

3 Regal Luck beat mediocre types like Hex and Cant Stop last time at Flamboro. She has a lot more trouble at this track when not at the bottom, but she has her good nights here too. Three back she had the 9 hole and had no shot, but the previous two at this level, she was only beat a length and a bit, and was a solid 2nd the time before, with better posts. She can blast from this post and look for another soft trip. Another one to use among many.

4 Pretty Hot is hard to ignore with her current form and all the variables in play. Jason Ryan is both a high percentage driver and trainer, and very potent when he is both on that particular horse. Post 4 is a good post, and she has had 2 9's and 7 in her last 3 races, one of which she won anyway, another she was 2nd after being first over and towing the winner into a perfect trip, then last time she was parked the mile and stayed on for 3rd in very fast time. She is just hard to not like. She has made the ticket in 6 of her last 6, and her consistency and grit are her two best assets. Ryan keeps the tag on her head, so she gets to continue racing with these while performing. Big shot.

5 Topville Cheetah got the perfect steer last time from Roy. She floated out from the rail, which had a long drought before she took care of that, he made sure she maintained position without using her, then tipped as late as he could, then gradually wore down a leader that wanted to be defeated, and simply cleared and opened up. That was a class lower, and while she gets a better post, she is generally not good enough at this level, in a race where there are lots of options and possibilities. I will pass and go to others.

6 Lights Go Out is simply not getting it done a level lower, with a variety of trips and drivers, but picks up enough money that she has to move up here. I can't see her as she has been for weeks. I will need to see something positive that shows me she still has it, and is willing to give it. I will wait for that. She can be real hot and cold over the course of a year.

7 True Reflection is another who got it done with Roy a level lower, but she neither has him here, or races at that level. She has not been dangerous in her last two at this level. Pass.

8 Glamour Seelster has had 3 back now off a very long layoff. She popped at first asking, which was at this level, but was not anywhere near good enough when forced to move up. She did pace very fast back to back quarters in her last race, but she generally does not leave, so she is dependant on a hot pace and decent flow. She has a shot, but she is just one of many here. She seems to get along best with McNair, but he is not here.

9 Bet Ya is another mare who can run hot and cold over an entire year, and when she is hot, she is just short of a solid Preferred mare, but when she is cold, she can even get beat in the bottom class, even though she is a drop and pop specialist. Currently, she is somewhere in between, with flat form and a bad post. Pass for me tonight.

10 Our Hot Majorette is up against it on the class rise and 10 hole start. Another day for her.

RACE 5

1 Sharky Shark was having a lot of trouble grabbing the track last time. He left from post 1, which was noted as deep and heavy around that time, and by the time he hit the backstretch he was losing ground badly. P Mac angled him into a different path, and he picked it back up, then was back towards the inside turning for home, but had to check out of that trap and swing very wide, just missing and moving fastest of all late. However, tonight, he gets a new driver and the rail again. He will be overbet on what everybody saw last time, and I will wait for another day to play him. He appears live, but tonight is probably not his night.

2 Windsun Gotham seems to have hit a level where he might reside for a few weeks. He also loses Sylvain tonight, who is at London, and he looks to be a bit player with these. He did pace a back half in 54.4 last time, so he is progressing and will adapt to these in time. Minor shot tonight, but I like others. Randy is likely to bury him and come late for a minor share.

3 Bet on Brett drew the 7 hole at Flamboro on Sunday night in his first start of the year off 2 qualifiers. He was no match for Frontier Seelster, who was long gone on that entire field. He won a Grassroots last year and was second in a Gold, so he has some class in a field where many are suspect on that front at this point in time. He had two post 1's in both qualifiers, and thus, altogether, he must be considered potentially live if he progresses as his conditioning and experience suggest he will. I can see him being dangerous as a decent longshot option.

4 Rock This Way is a wildly inconsistent type, in that he can pace a huge mile and come right back and spit the bit off what looks to be an easy trip to score off of. Last time, he gave it up completely, and so did his connections with the NAC pipe dream hopes. I don't love him, but he is very capable of turning it right back around. He is highly inbred with Western Hanover on his top line and Modern Art as his dam sire. He is likely to be very fast at times, and totally no good many other nights. Must use, just to negate what he can do to you...which is wipe you out of the picks.

5 Dreamfair Mesa scored at the bottom conditions for non winners when he drew well and got favorable fractions on the front end. Back in with conditioned horses, he hasn't been good enough, although he has had 2 poor posts in a row. He has always been tough to read, and with a good post and an upset specialist in J Mac, I'd have to use him as well in what looks like a wide open race.

6 Mcsinner Man is a new one for Cullen, and he has missed a month now. His last quarter last time is not inspiring and I would think like most that Cullen buys in this manner he will need a start or two to figure out what works with him. Based on how fast they go at Dover and Pocono, he would need to drop a lot of time to compete with many of these. Pass for tonight and keep an eye on him for the right spot.

7 Give Em Back is a full brother to Justabit Mean, and just like her, he rarely wins. He is 5 now, and has 3 lifetime wins. He is puzzling to consider in this spot. I can't see him.

8 Jrs Big Buddy moved into Carmen's barn 3 back, and moved over to Flamboro for more reasonable competition. With post 8 and his current form, and serious class rise, I cannot see him for the win spot.

9 Western Hill paced in 49.3 over Lexington last year chasing some bearcats, for which he was within range of how they were performing. This is his first start of the year, I suppose as a prep for the Somebeachsomewhere and NAC, as he is still paid in to those. His qualifiers are spaced out and he is now 18 days from the last one. I would be inclined to toss him for this start, but I'd probably use him for 20c on any pick just in case he is sorted out. He has a monster class edge on this entire bunch, but that isn't always enough when you are first off a layoff, post 9 and have a driver who has never handled you before.

RACE 7

1 Waasmula loses Trevor tonight, and that is a big difference, as he seems to get the most out of her. She is not impossible, but with the new driver, the post and that she is meeting many who have beaten her lately, I will pass on here here.

2 Wrangler Magic probably needed a start last time, and also drew poorly. She had the 7 hole in the Matchmaker final and got parked to the half, and then faded. Before that, she was fairly solid and beat this group in the winter. I could see her turning it around here, as one of many who will give the 4 a tough go if she wants to keep the ball rolling in this class. Saftic has usually done well with this type of mare in the past. I'd use her in the picks.

3 Wiggle It J has really come alive for Cullen since he has had her, rising from the bottom to the top in 6 starts. This is a stiff test though, and I will have to see her adapt to a deep field of talented ones she has never been measured against. I like others.

4 Sandbetweenurtoes is hard to go against with her very sharp current form and obvious class. However, I will here. They all go down, and there are enough options in this race to think at least will run her down. Risk/reward. She is likely to be a very short price.

5 Bedroomconfessions is a classy mare, with 875k made lifetime. She was razor sharp in the spring, but has tailed off quite a bit into May. She was given a short rest, and qualified back sharply to Lady Shadow 7 days ago. Randy does very well with her and he is not likely to bury her like he does most that look like they might need one. She could be the one to take the 4.

6 Request for Parole just cant quite get there with these, and now the class usually shows 2 or 3 tough options ahead of her, not just 1 like she hit in the winter. This field is deep. I like others more than her.

7 Ms Mac N Cheese tailed off sharply in the winter, as she had raced tough for more than 2 years straight. She appeared spend and worn out. She did still earn though, and now she returns at the highest level. She will drop some money if she just tags along for a couple of starts, and then get to drop when she has some fitness and is fresher. That should be the spot to go to her if she shows she has benefitted from the rest.

8 Much Adoo was very sharp and well driven last time by Trevor, who attacked a soft leader and opened enough daylight to hold off the one challenger who didn't have enough stretch to mow her down. She paced her own back half in 54.2, and is a longshot to consider in this race if you are going deep. This is an obvious big step up, but she was a solid 3rd with these on April 14th, and has done okay with them before.

9 P L Hurricane loses Randy to the 5 and draws bad. She likes to be up close and stay in, pouncing on whatever they give her that night. This doesn't look like that night. She has had 6 straight good posts, and while she has raced great, that flatters her form. Lets see her tackle this bunch from a disadvantage.

Monday, May 22, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 22, 2017

RACE 3

1 Beyombo got a pretty good steer last time, getting away 4th and staying there, swinging out in the lane with a clear shot to get 2nd, but he seemed to be going all he could go and it just wasn't good enough. He looked like a prospect in the winter, when they were going slower and the better horses had not come out yet. This race comes up pretty soft relative to the Classic Pro's and others he has met lately. I still need to see more but he is possible in with this group.

2 Rock N Fantasy faced the double edged sword last time. He had the far outside, left out, but had to take a seat and then stayed in while he had one in front who wasn't very live, and one beside who was going the wrong way, but wasn't doing it fast enough. McNair bided his time, and the rail opened up, allowing him to pace forward and be a solid 3rd to 2 pretty nice prospects. As the rail was deep and hard to travel around that time, his race and effort looks pretty good overall. He meets a group here he can beat, and I'd want about 3-1 to make that value. He won on the front, breaking his maiden on March 23rd, and McNair is likely to put him there again. The names of some of the ones that have beaten him recently, Southwind Diesel, Classic Pro, Stealth Bomber, are pretty tough customers with high aspirations that he mostly avoids here.

3 Sedona Seelster is one that fooled me, and I am fully prepared to admit that. Mid winter, I couldn't see why he was racing at WEG, when he looked like a so-so B track maiden type. That is why Doug Hie is who he is. He saw the potential for this one to get better as he goes, and he has. He still has trouble sealing the deal with the better ones he meets in here, but he has very good tactical gate speed, and he is gradually coming into his own overall. He is however 1 for 40 over the last two seasons, and beat a very weak maiden group in the dead of winter to get the one win he did. I'm not sure at this point he has 52 in him, and that looks like the speed the winner will go here. Bit player with a minor shot if the logical ones don't perform.

4 Undrafted has had a variety of trips, and none of them have resulted in a win or even a close miss. I see too many options in here to think he steps up and even if he does, takes them all.

5 Kazimoto gets Trevor, as J Mac is in the penalty box for two race days. He has longshot potential for a variety of reasons. First, he gets post 5, which is a very good leaving post position, and he picks up a driver who likes to blast when he gets a horse he has not driven before. Secondly, he took back last time and was not going to gain on the contenders off that trip. He paced his back half in 55.2, and that seems like a live enough horse to consider. He was a solid 2nd the start before that when he got out closer. He is usable as an upset option for the picks.

6 Rebellious reminds me a lot of Shamballa. Not that he is likely to have to crazy overall speed that one does when all is said and done, but he came to Zeron as a project, and Zeron is taking his time and teaching him to be a racehorse. In start one, he was floated out for position, but he was so grabby, for safety's sake Zeron had to pull and put him on the front, where he daylighted that group with ease. Last time, he was taken off the gate, floated out again, but this time he drove in a more manageable way, picking up cover, and following it willingly. However, it was immediately dead cover, he had to go 3 deep on the turn around it, which he did, and he was digging all the way to the wire. He paced his own back half in 55.3, wide for most or much of it. I could have listed him on top, in what was a toss up call, but he is still a bit green and he is likely to take more money than my top choice. Could be either of them. I expect this one to progress to be a Gold type colt in a few more starts. He is on the same cross as Somebeachsomewhere, who is also the sire of Shamballa. Zeron seems to know what to do with these types to max out their potential.

7 Face of War loses McNair, as he sticks with my top choice, but picks up Roy, so he is still in solid hands. His last mile is troubling though, if you are playing for a winner here. He gapped the winner badly last time at Flamboro off a sweet pocket trip, and his back half quarters don't stack up with the better ones in here. I have to see him compete at this track, but for tonight, I prefer others.

8 Homey Joe jumps into the deep end tonight, and has a driver who doesn't drive much, and post 8 to try it with. However, he did pace London in 56.3 last year, and that is not to be taken lightly. He looks to be a solid Grassroots type of horse, but he is not an Ontario Bred. He meets a few in here who look a notch above that type of class. Pass and watch.

RACE 4

1 Four Card Major raced on very short rest last time, and as he is not a very sound horse, that worked against him. As always, he tried hard and he was competitive. He looked to be showcased then, with a discount and he was sold after the race to the new connections. Post 1 here will likely doom him to a long trip again, and in spite of picking up Roy, coming back on more reasonable rest, and getting back in the softer claiming condition, I rate him a minor shot. He is likely to be overbet.

2 Lively Freddie takes a minor class drop here, and Nixon is good at tuning them up and finding a level to make money with them. His slow starts are a problem though, and I haven't seen any progress on that front. He did take 3 seconds off his previous race, and that does indicate some progress, although time can be deceiving as a stand alone factor. He had interference the start before that, and made a break in his 4yo debut. He could have hidden form and he paced in 54 over Georgian last year. He is chancy, but that is the nature of this class as a rule.

3 Cam Engine didn't race as a colt, but appears to be putting it together as he ages. Some Camluck's do that. He has the magic Camluck/Artsplace cross, and his dam, Loving Place, comes from the family of Camtastic, and many other very good ones. He has some potential built within his genes, and could blossom as he finds his way. He is starting on this circuit at the bottom level they offer. Last time, he made a nice post parade appearance, took back to the tail with a 10 hole start but only got beat 4 lengths at the wire. He is a slow starter, but looks like he could get away 6th or 7th with this better post. I could see him picking them all off in his 3rd start to try this class. Upset call.

4 Mammoth Jack seems to be the type of bit player in this class that wins this class on nights when its hard to like any short priced horses and he is around most of the time anyway. I give him a minor shot because of all of that. His win record is not bad, albeit a B track enhanced record.

5 Rockin Ronnie makes his 2nd start for Budd for a purse, but maintains the same connections he has had all along. I recall he needed a lot of encouragement to go forward in his races last year, and only once did that play out as a win. He qualified back okay after running at the start in his Flamboro debut for Budd, and dives into a low conditioned claimer here. Just another longshot who could win this in a race where you should be looking for one and forgiving big time flaws, which this one has.

6 Jet Black Cadillac is 1 for more than 50 lifetime, and even with the solid post and looking for something longer priced to play in this race, this is one I cannot go to. Too many chances and fails.

7 Badstormanyport picked up 2nd last time, beating a horrid bunch that were behind him, but nowhere near the winner, who daylighted the entire field for his first win in many years. He is likely to take some tote money this time, and he is possible. He is usable as an option if you want to go deep here, but he does find ways to lose races.

8 Kwicky Kwanzaa had post 1 last time, and he didn't race bad. He draws outside here, but Phil takes him over two others who look viable, and that is a plus. He is a reasonable longshot that needs a lot of things to go his way, but might get it done if they do.

9 Oforpetesake got out near the top from the best post last time and turned that pocket trip into a win as he just sailed up the rail. Post 9 is a much different ballgame. I like enough others in here to pass on him.

10 Meabhrach raced well last time, but wasn't nearly as good as the time before. Perhaps the bump he got on the trainer change has a shelf life. Post 10 is just about enough reason anyway for me to look elsewhere when he has 1 win in 3 years.

RACE 5

1 Dubious Claim is a terrible starter, and he doesn't do much once in the race. He is really up against it here from the rail. I cannot see him under any circumstances.

2 Shagnwiththedragon qualified well for McCabe, who sends them out ready, and he made a very nice post parade appearance last time. However, he stepped on the wheel of the 2nd place finisher and lost the win because of it. None of that was his fault, and the only knock I would have is he never moved off the rail until very late. Obvious shot chance, but he is still green and there are some options here to go against him.

3 Jaydens Place is a 4yo maiden with 12 3yo starts under his belt. He needed 3 qualifiers to get back racing. I will take a watch and wait attitude with him this time. He will need to take more time off his performance before he can tackle some of these.

4 This Is My Song was the beneficiary of some crashing and banging in the backfield last time, but to his credit, he made the most of it and got 3rd money, no threat to the 2 classy ones in front of him. He is hard to like, in that he is 0 for 16, but also has 3 bad posts in his last 6 lines. He is possible, but he hasn't contended for the win spot yet. Your call.

5 Casimir Quasimodo has some breeding behind him, as he is a half brother to Moving Pictures, Mr Massimo, and Mambo Italiano, all high end winners with big bankrolls made. He is also a sibling to Casimir Operaqueen, who did nothing at 2 and 3, but came alive at 4 and was a decent low condition horse at this track last fall. Joe C has had him all along and he hung on to him. That says something, as he doesn't normally do that with horses that don't pay their way. In his return qualifier, he chased 3 top stakes horses, and couldn't go with them when they kept going at the end. Not really fair for a green maiden to chase high end stakes horses. He could be better right off the shelf, so, its a post parade call for me. If you are concerned he can be a lot more than he shows to date tonight, just use him and negate the unknown factor in play here.

6 Master the View didn't win in 11 starts at 2, but he was near the money most nights, and made the Grassroots final. He qualified back okay, and Jack Darling has no need to show anybody how fast his horse is when no money is on the line. He paced in 54 last year and has an experience edge on these. Minor shot, but not my top pick. Based on his breeding, I have to see him parade.

7 Three More Smiles goes 2nd off the layoff here, in what was a decent first effort for the season. He did look green trying to go around bad cover in the last turn, then completely blew that turn on his own, ending up 6 or 7 wide, and then suffered uncharted interference when there was a jam up right to his left. He finished okay off all that, but still hung a shade. He won once in 13 starts at 2, and he had to go to Grand River to get that. He was kept paid up to the NAC, which is puzzling, but they must think that he has a lot of talent and upside..or...they smoke crack and just cant think straight. I'm not sure which, but he has a shot here considering who his trainer is and the driver steering tonight, who drives him for the 2nd time in a race and 3rd time overall. He looks like a one brush, one speed type, and I'm sure Roy has figured that out. He needs to leave and sit, and hope to score like Bettim Chris did when Roy first drove him to his win a month ago. One of many to think about here.

8 Hermanus was one Roy turned down for Three More Smiles. He draws poorly again and doesn't look like one of the better ones in here. He is taking time to get it together, and might be better off at Grand River or Georgian when they open.

9 Maverick Joe was a first time starter last time, and he went to the back, followed from a distance, and brushed late but was no factor, taking his time down to 56. He draws bad again, but he might be the type that progresses a bit each start and then finds the right mix of experience and post improvement. I will wait and watch.

10 Mckinley gets the 10 hole but picks up Gingras. He also has a very low percentage trainer, and he also can be dangerous at times on his own. I cant back him.

Thoughts On Racing