Friday, January 16, 2015

Woodbine Harness Notes: January 9-15




Previous weeks list. 

Possible plays: 

SOMEWHERE FAMEOUS OTB
WEATHER HANOVER DNR
MORNING BLUE CHIP DNR
OZZY OZZY DNR
HES A SENSATION DNR
ALWAYS THERE OTB
 AUTOMATIC SLIMS OTB
NIRVANA SEELSTER 3RD
JAC SPADE OTB
ALEXAS JACKPOT  OTB
MUSSELSFROMBRUSSELS WON
GEAR BOX 2ND
GD AIRLINER OTB
 CANT STOP OTB
BLUE CHIP SUNSHINE DNR
      
Likely play against:

MAPPOS MOENHAY 2ND
 KEYSTONE DALTON 3RD
BLACK VINNY OTB
LOST IN PANSLATION DNR
                                                     ROCKNROLL BAND WON, new info I didn't previously have.
HIT AND GIGGLE 4TH
STRONG HOPE OTB
SAVANNAH SPLENDOR DNR
REAL ROCKER OTB
  DINNER AT THE MET OTB
   IDEAL JET OTB
     SURPRISE HANOVER DNR
 SOUTHWIND TERROR 3RD
 NIPPY W HANOVER DNR
  
Horses to watch for improvement and value:
 
ALL THE LADIES
TERROROFTHENITE 
 HOUSE OF CASH
SEA DONKEY
ER ZACH ATTACK
TIGHTEN UP
RANSOM DEMAND
 FLIGHT LIFTED

New list, with carryovers.

Possible plays:
SOMEWHERE FAMEOUS 
WEATHER HANOVER
MORNING BLUE CHIP
OZZY OZZY
HES A SENSATION
 AUTOMATIC SLIMS
NIRVANA SEELSTER
JAC SPADE
ALEXAS JACKPOT  
GD AIRLINER
CANT STOP
BLUE CHIP SUNSHINE 
MACHET ROCKET 
NIRVANA SEELSTER  
TOPCORNER TERROR  
UF DRAGONS ROCKET
DONT SAY GOODBY
MCKINNEY
 RUB N TUG
MEADOWVIEW VICKY
RAMBLINGAMBLINGMAN
GIVE ME AN AMEN
DGS JUST LIKE THAT
CALL IT COURAGE
TOO SHY
WIRE ME CASH
 WHY ARGUE
  DOCS HOLLYWOOD
     
Likely play against:

LOVE DETECTIVE
STANDING MY GROUND
MISTRESSTOTHESTARS
 WANNA ROCK N ROLL
TANGO BAYAMA
MYSTERY BET
P L GEMSTONE
 WARRIOR CALL
   PEPPERMINT PATTI
MAPPOS MOENHAY
 KEYSTONE DALTON
BLACK VINNY
LOST IN PANSLATION
     SAVANNAH SPLENDOR
REAL ROCKER
  DINNER AT THE MET
   IDEAL JET
     SURPRISE HANOVER
 NIPPY W HANOVER   
Horses to watch for improvement and value:
ALL THE LADIES
TERROROFTHENITE 
 HOUSE OF CASH
SEA DONKEY
ER ZACH ATTACK
TIGHTEN UP
RANSOM DEMAND
 FLIGHT LIFTED



January 15


TANGO BAYAMA pretty lame coming to the wire. Back in a 10 claimer at Flamboro she is very beatable. Hurting bad and trying to go with WEG horses has not helped her cause.
WIRE ME CASH one of these days, maybe this winter,  that horse is going to get his act together, similar to how Frill Seeker did for a month last winter and blow up the tote board. I'd include him in every exotic until he does, assuming he isn't the chalk for some reason.
WHY ARGUE Might have tipped 3 wide too early, and also was on a line pretty bad in the lane. I expect Nixon to fix that up and she jogs next time. Not sure how short a price I will take, but hopefully she hooks a sharp one and it gets inflated.
DOCS HOLLYWOOD. bad shuffle behind a known stopper and then not much room in the lane to only get beat about a length. After the final, when she is back in a maiden where she belongs, she looks like solid gold. Could end up being a good one like her full brothers and sisters.
MYSTERY BET. looks to have a host of various soreness and resulting interference issues. On a day when that doesn't bother him, he will return boxcars. Any other time, and at short odds, he is a total no play. Even Zeron holding on to him and steering him to compensate can't keep him together on those nights, and he wont show it in the post parade. Only at speed.
P L GEMSTONE raced very well, but was putting in steps at the wire. Bad play at likely shorter odds next time.
WARRIOR CALL looked great coming with a huge rush, but looked horrible all the way around. Solid play against next time if he takes money because of the great line but suspect performance on the track.
PEPPERMINT PATTI  when she heads to a B track in a start or two, and picks up a driver who hasn't handled her before or in a long time, she will be trouble. She had trouble staying on the gate. Fillion regrouped her and timed the gate,  but that wont work at a B track with the odd speeds they drive it. Very solid play against for a horse that doesn't like to win anyway.
CANT STOP  got screwed from the get go. Scattered and interfered with when Frosty Delight stuck her toes in, then rammy in the hole, had to pull first up into a very fast 3rd quarter, and having Emerson blood, not particularly tough or brave anyway, as she showed a few starts back at chalk money on a bad night when she got a similar trip. Big play next time  on the rebound. Just wasn't her night.  
 
January 12

LOVE DETECTIVE looks maxed out in that class, and likely wouldn't even double up if she gets back in with the same bunch off that win. Not very impressive overall and certainly not from the last turn to the wire.

STANDING MY GROUND
bearing in bad coming out of the last turn and all the way down the stretch. Likely false fave next time and will fail on the engine. She has a history of getting sideways and making breaks when anything is wrong with her and it appears something is, although she has raced better and very tough the last month. Seems to be catching up with her as she competes with tough customers.

January 10

The whole card the last quarter was very slow, and any horse who cut it or left hard and held their own or gained in the stretch was very sharp on the night,  even if it appeared they were gassed in the lane.
Horses that fit that profile are:

Machet Rocket,  Bilbo Hanover, Nirvana Seelster, Topcornerterror, Four Boys
Curator, Camaes Fellow, E W Fisher, Prescotts Hope, Dont Say Goodby, 
Drain Daddy
 
MACHET ROCKET. more like how she was previous starts barring the bad track the time before. Left hard and traveled well in the 2 hole. Had no way out until very deep stretch but made steady and easy gains to almost nab 2nd. Certainly a top play next time if spotted right. she is very sharp and a very good WEG winter horse peaking at the right time.
 
NIRVANA SEELSTER. another solid effort. left well and stayed in, got a shuffle and jammed up a bit but came on nicely when free and seems to be much more versatile in how he can be used. He has become much more of a racehorse over the fall and as a Camluck, he is likely to improve and become something close to a Preferred horse as he matures. If he could get that trip and be able to get a 2 hole ride the whole way and pop out, he would draw off next time. Very sharp.
 
TOPCORNER TERROR. top effort. If he hadn't got a bit of a shuffle behind a stopping leader he certainly was 2nd and might have won it. with his good gate speed and Takoor gassing him up every time, he should be good to go for about a month more. 
 
GEAR BOX jogs next time in this class. Highly suspect drive by Allard. Almost looked like he wasn't racing to win. Should never have let A Mac get the 2 hole and then didn't go after the leader like he should have. 
 
UF DRAGONS ROCKET. typical Dragon Again. Very lazy if he isn't on top. Trevor was beating on him to shoot the gap along the rail, which he did only to come up on Dapper Denzil who was locked on a line stopping right in front of him, hooked wheels briefly and had to check him hard, which ended any chance he had, but he then came on again and raced great. Better post and more forwardly placed next time and he can provide serious value. 
 
DONT SAY GOODBY. Excellent bounce back effort after a poorly driven effort the time before. He suits this class well and looks like a horse with excellent form and nice tactical racing style to take advantage of whatever trip he can get.  Likely winner next time.
 
MCKINNEY has always been a very dangerous and hard to hold horse in the hole, and he was uncontrollable this time when McNair steered him into the safety lane and never moved him back out of it. I suspect a bit or bridle change and he did have plenty of pace. Could be a huge overlay if placed properly next time out or the time after that. He has beaten much better in the past.

January 9



MEADOWVIEW VICKY. left well, but sat in, then had zero room to go in or out or forward and had to wait for JJ to move forward, which he was in no hurry to do because he wanted to pin her in while he knew he had the rest of the field beat. As soon as she was free, she was moving fastest and best. Top call next time. She has matured very well.

RAMBLINGAMBLINGMAN huge trip. left better than normal, pulled first up into a blistering 3rd quarter and paced right to the wire, to only barely get beat by a 1-5 shot who sat on his back, picked him off but couldn't put him away. If he parades okay next time, he is a cinch. 

GIVE ME AN AMEN. Absolutely brutal drive by Mario B. 2nd time in a row. Hope they change drivers and she is classified right. I will bet my house on her getting it done. He is a dangerous driver these days who might have vision issues and not enough strength or reflexes to drive at WEG anymore. Hard to play him on anything that can't get a very easy trip with lots of room to move. Sad, he was a very good driver for a long time. That time has past.
DGS JUST LIKE THAT  not sure why JJ felt the need to fuck over Sylvain and this horse last time, but that doesn't matter. Sylvain will float out next time, move down the backside and draw off for the win. Must have started and stopped him 3 times in this mile and he likely shut off his air at some point. 

MISSTRESSTOTHESTARS needed some major finessing again this time and was wonky behind at various stages in the mile. Good play against at this point as she did race well and will likely take major chalk money.

RUB N TUG. tough trip. left but got a shuffle, and had no room and nowhere to go until it was too late to matter. She doesn't like to win, but she did have a legit excuse this time. 

CALL IT COURAGE very solid mile off the layoff. Good play next time if the post is favorable and the price is right. Different driver wouldn't hurt either. 

WANNA ROCK N ROLL.  I cant recall a horse having absolutely everything go her way like she did this time. Easy 2 hole trip. Willing leader who carried her far enough but then quit once she got beside her, first over mare who had no pace and backed away at just the right time and a host of parked mares who all hung enough into a 31 second last quarter so she could outstagger them. Huge play against next time.

TOO SHY not the smoothest going mare, as per her breeding, but she had the most pace but nowhere to go and would have won it if she had a lane. Can be a solid play next time if the spot is good and the price is right. 


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